{"name":"Cattle Market Pulse intelligence briefs","description":"Answer-ready, citable cattle, dairy, feed, weather, disease, trade, and farm-market intelligence briefs. Each brief connects a regional producer question to evidence, source families, causal graph edges, historical drivers, and scenarios.","generatedAt":"2026-06-06T22:13:26.553Z","snapshotGeneratedAt":"2026-06-06T11:33:23.605Z","snapshotWindow":{"startDate":"2026-05-28","endDate":"2026-06-03"},"updateCadence":"daily","isAccessibleForFree":true,"canonicalUrl":"https://cattleweightestimation.com/market-pulse/briefs.json","filters":{"region":"all","sector":"all","lang":"en","limit":1},"summary":{"briefs":1,"regions":5,"mappedPublicSeries":302037,"sourceFamilies":146,"liveConnectorFamilies":43,"sourceDiscoveryTargets":4017,"liveObservations":617,"marketEvents":189,"causalPaths":160,"decisionLenses":8,"historicalDrivers":12,"scenarioModels":13},"queryExamples":["https://cattleweightestimation.com/market-pulse/briefs.json?region=north-america&sector=beef&lang=en","https://cattleweightestimation.com/market-pulse/briefs.json?region=latin-america&sector=dairy&lang=es","https://cattleweightestimation.com/market-pulse/briefs.json?region=latin-america&sector=feed&lang=pt"],"briefs":[{"id":"decision-north-america-sell-hold","type":"regional-decision-brief","locale":"en","regionId":"north-america","regionName":"North America","decisionId":"sell-hold","decisionLabel":"Sell or hold","sectors":["beef","dairy","feed","crops","animal-health"],"severity":"high","confidence":83,"score":2733,"evidenceCount":323,"updatedAt":"2026-06-06T11:37:42.824Z","question":"Should cattle move now or wait?","answer":"323 evidence items across 32 source families. 52 % D2+ area in the latest U.S. Drought Monitor. D2+ is the official severe-drought footprint to read before assuming pasture, hay, and water pressure stay local.","producerAction":"Compare local bid strength with feed, forage, health, and freight before holding cattle for more gain.","watchNext":"Watch local price, slaughter/cull flow, yardings, drought footprint, and whether replacement cost is changing the real sale value.","scenarioRead":"Most connected scenario: Drought tightens forage. Test it before changing sale timing, feed cover, animal movement, or margin protection.","citationText":"North America: Sell or hold (North America) uses 323 evidence items, 32 public source families, and scenarios Drought tightens forage, Export or border disruption, Feed cost spike, Disease alert or movement hold.","sourceFamilies":[{"id":"us-drought-monitor","name":"U.S. Drought Monitor","category":"Weather","officialUrl":"https://www.drought.gov/data-maps-tools/us-drought-monitor","cadence":"Weekly","access":"CSV, shapefile, KML, text, maps","reliability":"Official","producerUse":"drought class, pasture stress, water pressure","regions":["north-america"],"sectors":["beef","dairy","feed"],"citation":"U.S. Drought Monitor: U.S. drought category, maps, time series, shapefiles, and weekly narratives. 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Official URL: https://www.cepea.org.br/br/categoria/acessar/boi-94-1.aspx"}],"evidence":[{"kind":"metric","id":"us-drought-monitor-southern-plains-d2-plus","title":"Southern Plains severe drought footprint","detail":"51.8 % D2+ area % D2+ area","date":"2026-06-02","sourceId":"us-drought-monitor","sourceName":"U.S. Drought Monitor","sourceUrl":"https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/DmData/DataDownload.aspx","confidence":90},{"kind":"metric","id":"us-drought-monitor-conus-d2-plus","title":"CONUS severe drought footprint","detail":"31.2 % D2+ area % D2+ area","date":"2026-06-02","sourceId":"us-drought-monitor","sourceName":"U.S. Drought Monitor","sourceUrl":"https://usdmdataservices.unl.edu/api/USStatistics/GetDroughtSeverityStatisticsByArea?startdate=4%2F22%2F2026&enddate=6%2F6%2F2026&statisticsType=1&aoi=us","confidence":88},{"kind":"metric","id":"usda-esr-beef-net-sales","title":"U.S. beef export demand net sales","detail":"5 thousand metric tons thousand metric tons","date":"2026-05-28","sourceId":"usda-esr","sourceName":"USDA FAS Export Sales Reporting","sourceUrl":"https://apps.fas.usda.gov/esrqs/StaticReports/CWRCommoditySummary.xml","confidence":88},{"kind":"metric","id":"usda-esr-beef-weekly-exports","title":"U.S. beef export demand weekly exports","detail":"10.3 thousand metric tons thousand metric tons","date":"2026-05-28","sourceId":"usda-esr","sourceName":"USDA FAS Export Sales Reporting","sourceUrl":"https://apps.fas.usda.gov/esrqs/StaticReports/CWRCommoditySummary.xml","confidence":88},{"kind":"impact","id":"us-drought-monitor-southern-plains-d2-plus-forage-retention-impact","title":"Southern Plains severe drought footprint changes forage and retention risk","detail":"52 % D2+ area in the latest U.S. Drought Monitor. D2+ is the official severe-drought footprint to read before assuming pasture, hay, and water pressure stay local.","date":null,"sourceId":"us-drought-monitor","sourceName":"U.S. Drought Monitor","sourceUrl":"https://www.drought.gov/data-maps-tools/us-drought-monitor","confidence":92,"severity":"high"},{"kind":"impact","id":"us-drought-monitor-colorado-d2-plus-forage-retention-impact","title":"Colorado severe drought footprint changes forage and retention risk","detail":"76 % D2+ area in the latest U.S. Drought Monitor. D2+ is the official severe-drought footprint to read before assuming pasture, hay, and water pressure stay local.","date":null,"sourceId":"us-drought-monitor","sourceName":"U.S. Drought Monitor","sourceUrl":"https://www.drought.gov/data-maps-tools/us-drought-monitor","confidence":91,"severity":"high"},{"kind":"impact","id":"us-drought-monitor-nebraska-d2-plus-forage-retention-impact","title":"Nebraska severe drought footprint changes forage and retention risk","detail":"75 % D2+ area in the latest U.S. Drought Monitor. D2+ is the official severe-drought footprint to read before assuming pasture, hay, and water pressure stay local.","date":null,"sourceId":"us-drought-monitor","sourceName":"U.S. Drought Monitor","sourceUrl":"https://www.drought.gov/data-maps-tools/us-drought-monitor","confidence":91,"severity":"high"},{"kind":"event","id":"gdelt-global-news-internazionale-it-screwworm-border-closure-fuels-beef-boom-in-mexico-gloom-in-texas-2026-06-06","title":"Screwworm border closure fuels beef boom in Mexico , gloom in Texas","detail":"Check movement, replacement purchases, and export-linked commitments before assuming normal buyer access.","date":"2026-06-06T10:45:00.000Z","sourceId":"gdelt-global-news","sourceName":"GDELT global event monitor","sourceUrl":"https://www.internazionale.it/ultime-notizie-reuters/2026/06/06/screwworm-border-closure-fuels-beef-boom-in-mexico-gloom-in-texas","confidence":40,"severity":"high"},{"kind":"event","id":"google-news-rss-global-feed-trade-screwworm-flies-add-to-cattle-ranchers-woes-the-new-york-times-2026-06-06","title":"Screwworm Flies Add to Cattle Ranchers’ Woes - The New York Times","detail":"Check movement, replacement purchases, and export-linked commitments before assuming normal buyer access.","date":"2026-06-06T09:02:04.000Z","sourceId":"google-news-rss","sourceName":"Google News public search RSS","sourceUrl":"https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMihgFBVV95cUxPam5NTGN1NjhwVUl6QmJRRXpTUksxSXk3YW5uSXVWV1FKT2p4dVNCNzhMSEFRNnBSTk5vWWJzR3NjMmJUM2RJVnZpQVZLNF9DWUZ4V1VfTE9waU4xd0IxVnJHNm9malJsTGE1X0ZVckpjbHRHSDlESmN2cWZMNktHb2FDQzJNUQ?oc=5","confidence":82,"severity":"high"},{"kind":"event","id":"gdelt-global-news-internazionale-it-screwworm-border-closure-fuels-beef-boom-in-mexico-gloom-in-texas-2026-06-06","title":"Screwworm border closure fuels beef boom in Mexico , gloom in Texas","detail":"Public event-stream item selected because it may affect livestock movement, buyer access, or biosecurity: Screwworm border closure fuels beef boom in Mexico , gloom in Texas Prior public event carried forward because the live event stream did not complete in this update.","date":"2026-06-06T10:45:00.000Z","sourceId":"gdelt-global-news","sourceName":"GDELT Global Event Monitor","sourceUrl":"https://www.internazionale.it/ultime-notizie-reuters/2026/06/06/screwworm-border-closure-fuels-beef-boom-in-mexico-gloom-in-texas","confidence":40,"severity":"high"},{"kind":"event","id":"google-news-rss-global-feed-trade-screwworm-flies-add-to-cattle-ranchers-woes-the-new-york-times-2026-06-06","title":"Screwworm Flies Add to Cattle Ranchers’ Woes - The New York Times","detail":"Public item selected because it can affect livestock movement, buyer access, and biosecurity: Screwworm Flies Add to Cattle Ranchers’ Woes - The New York Times","date":"2026-06-06T09:02:04.000Z","sourceId":"google-news-rss","sourceName":"Google News public search RSS","sourceUrl":"https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMihgFBVV95cUxPam5NTGN1NjhwVUl6QmJRRXpTUksxSXk3YW5uSXVWV1FKT2p4dVNCNzhMSEFRNnBSTk5vWWJzR3NjMmJUM2RJVnZpQVZLNF9DWUZ4V1VfTE9waU4xd0IxVnJHNm9malJsTGE1X0ZVckpjbHRHSDlESmN2cWZMNktHb2FDQzJNUQ?oc=5","confidence":82,"severity":"high"},{"kind":"event","id":"google-news-rss-animal-health-canada-bans-texas-cattle-over-flesh-eating-screwworm-outbreak-in-us-bbc-2026-06-06","title":"Canada bans Texas cattle over flesh-eating screwworm outbreak in US - BBC","detail":"Public item selected because it can affect livestock movement, buyer access, and biosecurity: Canada bans Texas cattle over flesh-eating screwworm outbreak in US - BBC","date":"2026-06-06T04:22:25.000Z","sourceId":"google-news-rss","sourceName":"Google News public search RSS","sourceUrl":"https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiWkFVX3lxTE02Q0NodGVFcGVBOVBROVVKWkF5NHhlZkV1X0puU3JrWHYxaEJlODFXZFNDczFYbURXdTJGQ3pqUWxORmFGYnl3Rll1OGhJYWdRa1VmSERGZGh0QQ?oc=5","confidence":82,"severity":"high"},{"kind":"event","id":"google-news-rss-animal-health-us-plans-to-fight-flesh-eating-screwworm-outbreak-with-flies-and-dogs-bbc-2026-06-06","title":"US plans to fight flesh-eating screwworm outbreak with flies and dogs - BBC","detail":"Public item selected because it can affect livestock movement, buyer access, and biosecurity: US plans to fight flesh-eating screwworm outbreak with flies and dogs - BBC","date":"2026-06-06T01:55:03.000Z","sourceId":"google-news-rss","sourceName":"Google News public search RSS","sourceUrl":"https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiWkFVX3lxTFBibTB3eS1FdHY1U2U3LThVVUgzNEZCb1ZPSW90cTVqZy1uaUxQMldUSTM5MWZHOV9KQjVOaU5jeVJybGJBN2pJanFiZ2ZTckFyZmZfYlY3b21QZw?oc=5","confidence":82,"severity":"high"},{"kind":"entity","id":"hay-pasture-forage","title":"Hay, pasture, and forage","detail":"Hay, pasture, and forage affects the next gain period. Convert it into breakeven, hay substitution, ration intensity, and sale-or-hold thresholds.","date":"2026-06-06T11:37:42.824Z","sourceId":"reliefweb-agriculture","sourceName":"ReliefWeb agriculture and disaster reports","sourceUrl":"https://reliefweb.int/","confidence":82,"severity":"high"}],"sourceGraph":[{"id":"ams-price-to-sale-window","sourceId":"usda-ams","sourceName":"USDA AMS MyMarketNews","signal":"Cash cattle, feeder cattle, auctions, boxed beef","driver":"Local bid strength and packer leverage","affects":"Sale timing, weight class target, and hedge urgency","producerDecision":"Sell now, add pounds, or price-protect cattle before bids soften.","lag":"0-2 days","confidence":91,"regions":["north-america"],"sectors":["beef","dairy"]},{"id":"drought-to-retention","sourceId":"us-drought-monitor","sourceName":"U.S. Drought Monitor","signal":"Drought class, weekly narrative, pasture stress","driver":"Forage pressure and early liquidation risk","affects":"Cow retention, hay demand, calf movement, and replacement price","producerDecision":"Compare forage inventory against the value of carrying cattle longer.","lag":"1-4 weeks","confidence":88,"regions":["north-america"],"sectors":["beef","dairy","feed"]},{"id":"nass-inventory-to-cycle","sourceId":"usda-nass","sourceName":"USDA NASS QuickStats and ESMIS reports","signal":"Inventory, placements, pasture, hay, crop data","driver":"Herd cycle, feeder supply, and feed availability","affects":"Replacement strategy, retained heifers, and forward feeder supply","producerDecision":"Decide whether scarce replacement animals are worth keeping or selling.","lag":"1 month to 1 year","confidence":86,"regions":["north-america"],"sectors":["beef","dairy","feed"]},{"id":"fas-trade-to-basis","sourceId":"usda-fas","sourceName":"USDA FAS Open Data","signal":"Exports, imports, PSD, GAIN reports","driver":"Export pull and trade-policy pressure","affects":"Processor bids, regional basis, offal value, and cull cow demand","producerDecision":"Watch buyer access before committing volume into a weak local bid.","lag":"1-6 weeks","confidence":84,"regions":["north-america","latin-america","oceania","europe","africa-asia"],"sectors":["beef","dairy"]},{"id":"nasa-weather-to-heat","sourceId":"nasa-power","sourceName":"NASA POWER","signal":"Temperature, humidity, wind, rainfall by coordinate","driver":"Heat load, water stress, and pasture regrowth","affects":"Gain, intake, fertility, death loss risk, and shade or water planning","producerDecision":"Adjust transport, feeding time, stocking rate, and water checks before stress peaks.","lag":"0-10 days","confidence":83,"regions":["north-america","latin-america","oceania","europe","africa-asia"],"sectors":["beef","dairy","feed"]},{"id":"open-meteo-forecast-to-forward-forage","sourceId":"open-meteo-forecast","sourceName":"Open-Meteo global weather forecast","signal":"7-day precipitation and temperature forecast by geo node","driver":"Forward pasture, heat, water, and forage pressure","affects":"Sale timing, feed coverage, water checks, milk yield, weight gain, and crop-feed risk","producerDecision":"Use the next-week rain and heat forecast before moving cattle, buying hay, changing supplement, or holding weight.","lag":"0-14 days","confidence":78,"regions":["north-america","latin-america","oceania","europe","africa-asia"],"sectors":["beef","dairy","feed","crops"]},{"id":"cftc-positioning-to-hedge-feed-risk","sourceId":"cftc-cot","sourceName":"CFTC Commitments of Traders","signal":"Managed money, commercial, and open-interest positioning in live cattle, feeder cattle, corn, and soybean meal","driver":"Speculative positioning and commercial hedge pressure","affects":"Hedge timing, basis risk, feeder bids, feed coverage, and retained-ownership risk","producerDecision":"Use COT positioning as a weekly stress check before leaving cattle, corn, or soybean-meal exposure unprotected.","lag":"Same week to 8 weeks","confidence":80,"regions":["north-america"],"sectors":["beef","dairy","feed","crops"]},{"id":"aphis-h5n1-to-dairy-movement","sourceId":"usda-aphis","sourceName":"USDA APHIS reportable diseases","signal":"H5N1 livestock guidance, dairy cattle movement updates, and biosecurity notices","driver":"Dairy cattle movement and biosecurity risk","affects":"Interstate movement, sale timing, replacement buying, milk logistics, and cull-cow flow","producerDecision":"Check APHIS guidance before moving lactating dairy cattle, buying replacements, or changing biosecurity routines.","lag":"Same day to 2 weeks","confidence":84,"regions":["north-america"],"sectors":["animal-health","dairy","beef"]},{"id":"feed-energy-to-breakeven","sourceId":"world-bank-pink-sheet","sourceName":"World Bank commodity prices","signal":"Beef, energy, fertilizer, and feed commodity prices","driver":"Feed, fertilizer, freight, and pasture input cost","affects":"Backgrounding breakeven, finishing margin, hay cost, and stocking decision","producerDecision":"Reprice the next 50 lb or 25 kg before buying feed or delaying sales.","lag":"1-6 weeks","confidence":80,"regions":["north-america","latin-america","oceania","europe","africa-asia"],"sectors":["feed","beef","dairy"]},{"id":"fao-food-price-to-farm-margin","sourceId":"fao-food-price","sourceName":"FAO food price indices","signal":"FAO meat, dairy, cereal, oil, sugar, and headline food price indices","driver":"Global food, feed, and protein price pressure","affects":"Export pull, milk margin, ration cost, crop rotation, food inflation, and local bid resilience","producerDecision":"Compare global food index direction with local cattle, milk, feed, and crop bids before treating a market move as local noise.","lag":"1-12 months","confidence":82,"regions":["north-america","latin-america","oceania","europe","africa-asia"],"sectors":["beef","dairy","feed","crops"]}],"historicalDrivers":[{"id":"pasture-stress-to-sale-runs","driver":"Pasture stress becomes sale pressure","lookbackWindow":"30-120 days","forwardWindow":"2-16 weeks","lag":{"en":"Pasture stress usually hits feed buying first, sale runs second, and replacement prices last.","es":"El estrés de pasto suele mover primero la compra de alimento, luego las ventas y al final la reposición.","pt":"O estresse de pasto costuma mover primeiro a compra de ração, depois as vendas e por fim a reposição."},"leadingSignals":["Soil moisture drops below seasonal median","Pasture condition ratings deteriorate","Hay and supplement quotes firm before auction volume rises"],"forwardEffects":["More calves and cull cows move earlier","Replacement animals face discount risk in dry regions","Feed cost can erase the value of extra gain"],"producerDecision":"Move from calendar-based selling to forage-days and feed-margin selling.","confidence":86,"sourceIds":["us-drought-monitor","nasa-power","copernicus-cds","bom-climate","brazil-inmet","mexico-siap","gdelt-global-news"]},{"id":"export-pull-to-local-basis","driver":"Export pull changes local basis","lookbackWindow":"4-52 weeks","forwardWindow":"1-12 weeks","lag":{"en":"Export sales lead shipments; shipments lead customs totals; customs totals confirm structural demand.","es":"Las ventas de exportación adelantan embarques; los embarques adelantan aduana; aduana confirma demanda estructural.","pt":"Vendas de exportação antecipam embarques; embarques antecipam aduana; aduana confirma demanda estrutural."},"leadingSignals":["Weekly sales or attaché reports change before monthly trade files","Destination concentration rises","Currency makes local supply cheaper or dearer to importers"],"forwardEffects":["Processor bids widen or narrow by export access","Feed and crop basis shifts around ports and corridors","Sanitary or border events can erase the signal quickly"],"producerDecision":"Price cattle and crops with local basis plus destination exposure, not only the national headline.","confidence":82,"sourceIds":["usda-esr","usda-fas","un-comtrade","brazil-mapa-agrostat","comex-stat","mexico-siap","brazil-bcb-sgs","gdelt-global-news"]},{"id":"crop-balance-to-feed-margin","driver":"Crop balance becomes feed margin","lookbackWindow":"90 days to 5 years","forwardWindow":"1-18 months","lag":{"en":"Acreage and crop condition lead production; production leads feed price; feed price leads cattle and milk margins.","es":"Área y condición del cultivo adelantan producción; producción adelanta alimento; alimento adelanta márgenes ganaderos y lecheros.","pt":"Área e condição da cultura antecipam produção; produção antecipa ração; ração antecipa margens pecuárias e leiteiras."},"leadingSignals":["Acreage, crop progress, and soil moisture shift together","Balance-sheet revisions tighten ending stocks","Rail, freight, or port pressure widens local basis"],"forwardEffects":["Backgrounding and finishing margins compress","Dairy ration spend rises before cull flow changes","Crop producers may gain price opportunity while livestock producers face cost risk"],"producerDecision":"Use the crop balance to decide feed coverage, hay buying, grain pricing, and stocking rate.","confidence":84,"sourceIds":["usda-wasde","usda-nass","usda-ers-feed-grains","conab","comex-stat","mexico-siap","faostat","gdelt-global-news"]},{"id":"positioning-to-hedge-margin","driver":"Futures positioning becomes hedge and margin pressure","lookbackWindow":"4-52 weeks","forwardWindow":"1-8 weeks","lag":{"en":"COT positioning shifts before many cash producers feel the basis move; the risk shows up later in hedge cost, feed coverage, and retained ownership.","es":"COT cambia antes de que muchos productores vean moverse la base; luego aparece en costo de cobertura, alimento y propiedad retenida.","pt":"COT muda antes de muitos produtores sentirem a base; depois aparece em custo de hedge, cobertura de ração e propriedade retida."},"leadingSignals":["Managed money exits long cattle exposure","Corn or soybean-meal shorts cover quickly","Open interest changes while cash bids lag"],"forwardEffects":["Hedge urgency rises before local bids fully reprice","Feed coverage becomes more valuable when feed shorts unwind","Retained ownership gets riskier when cattle longs liquidate"],"producerDecision":"Check COT before deciding to hold unhedged weight, delay feed coverage, or assume today’s basis will still be there next month.","confidence":78,"sourceIds":["cftc-cot","cme-livestock","usda-ams","world-bank-pink-sheet"]},{"id":"dairy-margin-to-beef-supply","driver":"Dairy margins become beef supply","lookbackWindow":"4-26 weeks","forwardWindow":"2-20 weeks","lag":{"en":"Milk price and feed cost hit dairy margins before cull cow flow and beef supply respond.","es":"Precio de leche y alimento golpean el margen antes de que cambien descarte y oferta de carne.","pt":"Preço do leite e ração atingem a margem antes de mudar descarte e oferta de carne."},"leadingSignals":["Milk-feed spread narrows","Dairy auction prices weaken","Feed and energy prices rise together"],"forwardEffects":["Cull cows enter beef supply","Replacement appetite weakens","Milk output can fall after ration cuts"],"producerDecision":"Reprice ration, cull timing, and replacement purchases before monthly milk checks settle.","confidence":81,"sourceIds":["eu-milk","gdt-events","usda-ers-dairy","usda-ams","mexico-siap","world-bank-pink-sheet","ibge-sidra","brazil-bcb-sgs","gdelt-global-news"]},{"id":"health-alert-to-market-access","driver":"Animal-health alerts become market-access friction","lookbackWindow":"Same day to 5 years","forwardWindow":"Same day to 12 months","lag":{"en":"A disease notice can affect movement immediately, then trade access and buyer confidence over weeks or months.","es":"Un aviso sanitario puede afectar movimiento de inmediato y luego comercio y confianza por semanas o meses.","pt":"Um aviso sanitário pode afetar movimento imediatamente e depois comércio e confiança por semanas ou meses."},"leadingSignals":["Official disease notice or surveillance update","Movement guidance, testing rules, or border language changes","Buyer discounts appear before broad price averages adjust"],"forwardEffects":["Movement costs and delays rise","Export eligibility or buyer confidence can narrow","Biosecurity spend becomes part of the margin calculation"],"producerDecision":"Check health status before moving cattle, buying replacements, or signing export-sensitive commitments.","confidence":83,"sourceIds":["woah-wahis","usda-aphis","argentina-senasa","paraguay-senacsa","australia-daff","gdelt-global-news"]},{"id":"credit-cost-to-retention","driver":"Credit cost changes retention and input timing","lookbackWindow":"30 days to 5 years","forwardWindow":"1 month to 24 months","lag":{"en":"Interest and credit changes hit input prepay and replacements before they show up in herd-size data.","es":"Interés y crédito golpean insumos y reposición antes de aparecer en el tamaño del hato.","pt":"Juros e crédito atingem insumos e reposição antes de aparecer no tamanho do rebanho."},"leadingSignals":["Policy rates, farm credit, or inflation move together","Replacement purchases slow even when cattle prices look attractive","Input prepay windows get shorter"],"forwardEffects":["Retained ownership becomes harder to finance","Crop input timing can shift acreage and feed supply","Dairy ration and replacement choices tighten"],"producerDecision":"Run feed, replacement, and planting choices through a cash-flow calendar before chasing headline price.","confidence":79,"sourceIds":["fred-ag-macro","imf-ifs","brazil-bcb-sgs","world-bank-wdi","bls-ag-inputs"]},{"id":"logistics-to-local-basis","driver":"Logistics shocks become local basis gaps","lookbackWindow":"7 days to 3 years","forwardWindow":"Same week to 9 months","lag":{"en":"Freight and port disruption can widen local basis before national price series register the stress.","es":"Flete y puertos pueden abrir base local antes de que el precio nacional lo refleje.","pt":"Frete e portos podem abrir base local antes do preço nacional refletir."},"leadingSignals":["Fuel, port, rail, or border news moves before farmgate averages","Delivered feed diverges from board or benchmark price","Destination prices stop translating to local bids"],"forwardEffects":["Cattle, hay, milk, grain, and fertilizer spreads widen by corridor","Local arbitrage opportunities can appear","Remote producers face discount risk even in strong headline markets"],"producerDecision":"Price the delivered destination, not the benchmark, before moving cattle, feed, milk, or crop volume.","confidence":78,"sourceIds":["eia-fuel","un-comtrade","brazil-mapa-agrostat","comex-stat","gdelt-global-news"]}],"scenarios":[{"id":"drought-shock","name":"Drought tightens forage","sector":"feed","defaultIntensity":42,"description":"Pasture weakens, hay gets tighter, and more cows or calves can move earlier than planned.","producerDecision":"Check forage inventory, water, and the value of selling lighter cattle before everyone else is forced to.","sourceIds":["us-drought-monitor","noaa-climate","nasa-power","bom-climate","mexico-siap","gdelt-global-news"],"outputs":[{"label":"Hay cost risk","baseline":28,"unit":"%","perIntensityPoint":0.72,"direction":"higher-is-risk"},{"label":"Early sale pressure","baseline":22,"unit":"%","perIntensityPoint":0.58,"direction":"higher-is-risk"},{"label":"Pasture carrying days","baseline":64,"unit":"days","perIntensityPoint":-0.42,"direction":"lower-is-risk"}]},{"id":"export-disruption","name":"Export or border disruption","sector":"beef","defaultIntensity":30,"description":"A sanitary, policy, currency, or logistics event changes buyer access.","producerDecision":"Do not assume local bids are stable when export channels or border rules move.","sourceIds":["usda-fas","comex-stat","mexico-siap","woah-wahis","argentina-senasa","cftc-cot","gdelt-global-news"],"outputs":[{"label":"Basis risk","baseline":26,"unit":"%","perIntensityPoint":0.72,"direction":"higher-is-risk"},{"label":"Cull cow pressure","baseline":18,"unit":"%","perIntensityPoint":0.33,"direction":"higher-is-risk"},{"label":"Buyer competition","baseline":46,"unit":"%","perIntensityPoint":-0.51,"direction":"lower-is-risk"}]},{"id":"feed-cost-spike","name":"Feed cost spike","sector":"feed","defaultIntensity":35,"description":"Corn, hay, soybean meal, fuel, or freight costs rise faster than cattle value.","producerDecision":"Recalculate whether the next gain period is still worth feeding.","sourceIds":["usda-ams","usda-nass","usda-ers-feed-grains","conab","mexico-siap","world-bank-pink-sheet","eia-fuel","cftc-cot","gdelt-global-news"],"outputs":[{"label":"Feed breakeven pressure","baseline":34,"unit":"%","perIntensityPoint":0.66,"direction":"higher-is-risk"},{"label":"Margin cushion","baseline":24,"unit":"%","perIntensityPoint":-0.45,"direction":"lower-is-risk"},{"label":"Freight sensitivity","baseline":18,"unit":"%","perIntensityPoint":0.31,"direction":"higher-is-risk"}]},{"id":"disease-alert","name":"Disease alert or movement hold","sector":"animal-health","defaultIntensity":28,"description":"Official animal health alerts can change movement, buyer confidence, mortality risk, and export access.","producerDecision":"Treat health status as a market signal before buying, moving, or selling cattle.","sourceIds":["woah-wahis","usda-aphis","argentina-senasa","gdelt-global-news"],"outputs":[{"label":"Movement friction","baseline":16,"unit":"%","perIntensityPoint":0.88,"direction":"higher-is-risk"},{"label":"Buyer discount risk","baseline":14,"unit":"%","perIntensityPoint":0.46,"direction":"higher-is-risk"},{"label":"Biosecurity spend","baseline":10,"unit":"%","perIntensityPoint":0.35,"direction":"higher-is-risk"}]},{"id":"crop-yield-shock","name":"Crop yield shock","sector":"crops","defaultIntensity":38,"description":"Soil moisture, heat, and rainfall patterns point to lower crop yields before harvest data is published.","producerDecision":"Decide whether to protect feed needs, price grain, adjust planting, or buy hay before local shortages are obvious.","sourceIds":["copernicus-cds","usda-wasde","usda-nass","usda-ers-feed-grains","nasa-power","world-bank-climate","cftc-cot","gdelt-global-news"],"outputs":[{"label":"Feed cost pressure","baseline":24,"unit":"%","perIntensityPoint":0.64,"direction":"higher-is-risk"},{"label":"Yield downside","baseline":18,"unit":"%","perIntensityPoint":0.52,"direction":"higher-is-risk"},{"label":"Hedging urgency","baseline":31,"unit":"%","perIntensityPoint":0.48,"direction":"higher-is-risk"}]},{"id":"milk-margin-squeeze","name":"Milk margin squeeze","sector":"dairy","defaultIntensity":33,"description":"Milk price weakens while feed, energy, or cull cow pressure rises.","producerDecision":"Reprice feed, cull timing, and replacement animals before ration spend outruns milk value.","sourceIds":["eu-milk","usda-ams","mexico-siap","eurostat-agri","world-bank-pink-sheet","gdelt-global-news"],"outputs":[{"label":"Milk-feed squeeze","baseline":31,"unit":"%","perIntensityPoint":0.62,"direction":"higher-is-risk"},{"label":"Cull flow","baseline":18,"unit":"%","perIntensityPoint":0.43,"direction":"higher-is-risk"},{"label":"Replacement appetite","baseline":42,"unit":"%","perIntensityPoint":-0.39,"direction":"lower-is-risk"}]},{"id":"fertilizer-energy-squeeze","name":"Fertilizer and energy squeeze","sector":"crops","defaultIntensity":32,"description":"Fertilizer, diesel, freight, and credit costs rise before crop or cattle prices fully adjust.","producerDecision":"Stress-test planting, feed procurement, and replacement purchases against higher working-capital cost.","sourceIds":["world-bank-pink-sheet","bls-ag-inputs","eia-fuel","imf-ifs","gdelt-global-news"],"outputs":[{"label":"Input-cost drag","baseline":29,"unit":"%","perIntensityPoint":0.7,"direction":"higher-is-risk"},{"label":"Planting margin","baseline":46,"unit":"%","perIntensityPoint":-0.43,"direction":"lower-is-risk"},{"label":"Cash-flow risk","baseline":21,"unit":"%","perIntensityPoint":0.54,"direction":"higher-is-risk"}]},{"id":"geopolitical-shipping-shock","name":"War and shipping disruption","sector":"feed","defaultIntensity":37,"description":"Conflict, sanctions, canal disruption, or route risk changes grain, fertilizer, fuel, freight, and protein trade costs.","producerDecision":"Before holding cattle for more gain, check whether war or shipping risk has changed delivered feed, fertilizer, freight, or buyer access.","sourceIds":["gdelt-global-news","reliefweb-agriculture","fao-giews","suez-canal-authority","panama-canal-authority","baltic-exchange","world-bank-pink-sheet","eia-fuel","un-comtrade","usda-oce-port-grain"],"outputs":[{"label":"Delivered-input risk","baseline":24,"unit":"%","perIntensityPoint":0.69,"direction":"higher-is-risk"},{"label":"Basis and freight drag","baseline":21,"unit":"%","perIntensityPoint":0.64,"direction":"higher-is-risk"},{"label":"Local substitution value","baseline":30,"unit":"%","perIntensityPoint":0.35,"direction":"higher-is-opportunity"}]}],"canonicalDataUrl":"https://cattleweightestimation.com/market-pulse/data.json"}]}