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local."},"topSourceIds":["usda-fas","usda-esr","usda-gain","un-comtrade","china-customs","india-apeda"]},{"category":"Weather","sourceFamilyCount":9,"liveSourceFamilyCount":2,"mappedSeries":22452,"currentRecords":16,"evidenceCount":66,"decisionIds":["sell-hold","feed-margin","dairy-margin","trade-basis","water-forage"],"scenarioIds":["drought-shock","export-disruption","feed-cost-spike","disease-alert","crop-yield-shock","milk-margin-squeeze","fertilizer-energy-squeeze","geopolitical-shipping-shock"],"coverageScore":173,"producerUse":{"en":"Weather sources convert into pasture days, water checks, hay demand, heat stress, and sale thresholds.","es":"Las fuentes de clima se convierten en días de pasto, agua, demanda de heno, estrés calórico y umbrales de venta.","pt":"Fontes de clima viram dias de pasto, água, demanda de feno, estresse térmico e limites de venda."},"topSourceIds":["open-meteo-forecast","nasa-power","copernicus-cds","india-imd","noaa-cpc","world-bank-climate"]},{"category":"Crops","sourceFamilyCount":3,"liveSourceFamilyCount":1,"mappedSeries":650,"currentRecords":12,"evidenceCount":49,"decisionIds":["sell-hold","feed-margin","dairy-margin","trade-basis","water-forage"],"scenarioIds":["drought-shock","export-disruption","feed-cost-spike","disease-alert","crop-yield-shock","milk-margin-squeeze","fertilizer-energy-squeeze","geopolitical-shipping-shock"],"coverageScore":131,"producerUse":{"en":"Crop sources explain whether feed availability and crop margins can absorb demand without repricing cattle gain.","es":"Las fuentes agrícolas explican si alimento y margen agrícola absorben demanda sin repricing de ganancia.","pt":"Fontes agrícolas mostram se disponibilidade de ração e margem da lavoura absorvem demanda sem repricing do ganho."},"topSourceIds":["usda-wasde","eu-jrc-mars","south-africa-sagis"]},{"category":"Dairy","sourceFamilyCount":2,"liveSourceFamilyCount":1,"mappedSeries":195,"currentRecords":15,"evidenceCount":44,"decisionIds":["sell-hold","feed-margin","dairy-margin","trade-basis","health-movement"],"scenarioIds":["drought-shock","export-disruption","feed-cost-spike","disease-alert","crop-yield-shock","milk-margin-squeeze","fertilizer-energy-squeeze","geopolitical-shipping-shock"],"coverageScore":131,"producerUse":{"en":"Dairy sources connect milk price, milk flow, feed, heat, health, and cull value into one margin decision.","es":"Las fuentes lecheras conectan precio, entregas, alimento, calor, sanidad y descarte en una decisión de margen.","pt":"Fontes leiteiras conectam preço, captação, ração, calor, sanidade e descarte numa decisão de margem."},"topSourceIds":["gdt-events","india-nddb"]}],"topCountries":[{"country":"India","targets":39,"estimatedSeries":2225},{"country":"China","targets":39,"estimatedSeries":2225},{"country":"Japan","targets":39,"estimatedSeries":2225},{"country":"South Korea","targets":39,"estimatedSeries":2225},{"country":"Indonesia","targets":39,"estimatedSeries":2225},{"country":"Thailand","targets":39,"estimatedSeries":2225},{"country":"Philippines","targets":39,"estimatedSeries":2225},{"country":"Vietnam","targets":39,"estimatedSeries":2225}]}]},"forecastPathways":{"generatedAt":"2026-06-06T11:33:23.605Z","summary":{"regions":5,"pathwayCount":39,"actNowCount":36,"watchCount":2,"opportunityCount":1,"historicalDriverModels":12,"scenarioModels":13},"regions":[{"regionId":"north-america","regionName":{"en":"North America","es":"Norteamérica","pt":"América do Norte"},"pathwayCount":9,"actNowCount":8,"watchCount":1,"opportunityCount":0,"pathways":[{"id":"forecast-north-america-pasture-stress-to-sale-runs","regionId":"north-america","driverId":"pasture-stress-to-sale-runs","priority":"act","sectors":["beef","dairy","feed","crops"],"sourceIds":["us-drought-monitor","nasa-power","copernicus-cds","bom-climate","brazil-inmet","mexico-siap","gdelt-global-news"],"sourceNames":["U.S. Drought Monitor","NASA POWER","Copernicus Climate Data Store","Australian Bureau of Meteorology","Brazil INMET weather data"],"scenarioIds":["drought-shock","feed-cost-spike","crop-yield-shock","export-disruption","milk-margin-squeeze","fertilizer-energy-squeeze","credit-interest-squeeze","port-freight-shock"],"scenarioNames":[{"en":"Drought tightens forage","es":"Sequía aprieta el forraje","pt":"Seca aperta o pasto"},{"en":"Feed cost spike","es":"Salto de costo de alimento","pt":"Alta no custo da ração"},{"en":"Crop yield shock","es":"Choque de rendimiento agrícola","pt":"Choque de produtividade agrícola"},{"en":"Export or border disruption","es":"Interrupción de exportación","pt":"Interrupção de exportação"},{"en":"Milk margin squeeze","es":"Compresión de margen lechero","pt":"Aperto na margem do leite"}],"lookbackWindow":"30-120 days","forwardWindow":{"en":"1-8 weeks","es":"1-8 semanas","pt":"1-8 semanas"},"confidence":92,"title":{"en":"Pasture stress becomes sale pressure","es":"Estrés de pasto se vuelve venta","pt":"Estresse de pasto vira venda"},"currentTrigger":{"en":"Southern Plains severe drought footprint changes forage and retention risk","es":"Sequia severa en las Planicies del Sur cambia riesgo de forraje y retencion","pt":"Seca severa nas Planicies do Sul muda risco de pasto e retencao"},"triggerDetail":{"en":"52 % D2+ area in the latest U.S. Drought Monitor. D2+ is the official severe-drought footprint to read before assuming pasture, hay, and water pressure stay local.","es":"52 % D2+ area en el U.S. Drought Monitor reciente. D2+ es la huella oficial de sequia severa para leer antes de asumir pasto, heno y agua estables.","pt":"52 % D2+ area no U.S. Drought Monitor recente. D2+ e a pegada oficial de seca severa para ler antes de assumir pasto, feno e agua estaveis."},"historicalPattern":{"en":"Pasture stress usually hits feed buying first, sale runs second, and replacement prices last.","es":"El estrés de pasto suele mover primero la compra de alimento, luego las ventas y al final la reposición.","pt":"O estresse de pasto costuma mover primeiro a compra de ração, depois as vendas e por fim a reposição."},"leadingSignals":[{"en":"Soil moisture drops below seasonal median","es":"Humedad de suelo cae bajo la mediana","pt":"Umidade do solo cai abaixo da mediana"},{"en":"Pasture condition ratings deteriorate","es":"Condición de pasto se deteriora","pt":"Condição do pasto piora"},{"en":"Hay and supplement quotes firm before auction volume rises","es":"Heno y suplemento suben antes del remate","pt":"Feno e suplemento sobem antes do leilão"}],"forwardEffects":[{"en":"More calves and cull cows move earlier","es":"Más terneros y descartes salen antes","pt":"Mais bezerros e descartes saem antes"},{"en":"Replacement animals face discount risk in dry regions","es":"Reposición tiene riesgo de descuento en zonas secas","pt":"Reposição tem risco de desconto em zonas secas"},{"en":"Feed cost can erase the value of extra gain","es":"El alimento borra el valor de más ganancia","pt":"Ração apaga o valor de mais ganho"}],"producerDecision":{"en":"Recount forage and hay inventory now, then compare selling lighter cattle against carrying them through a drought-priced gain period.","es":"Recontar pasto y heno ahora, luego comparar vender ganado mas liviano contra sostenerlo en un periodo de ganancia con sequia.","pt":"Recontar pasto e feno agora, depois comparar vender gado mais leve contra segurar em periodo de ganho precificado pela seca."},"evidenceIds":["us-drought-monitor-southern-plains-d2-plus-forage-retention-impact","nasa-power-southern-plains-rainfall-baseline","nasa-power-southern-plains"]},{"id":"forecast-north-america-export-pull-to-local-basis","regionId":"north-america","driverId":"export-pull-to-local-basis","priority":"act","sectors":["beef","dairy","feed","crops"],"sourceIds":["usda-nass","usda-esr","usda-fas","un-comtrade","brazil-mapa-agrostat","comex-stat","mexico-siap","brazil-bcb-sgs","gdelt-global-news"],"sourceNames":["USDA NASS QuickStats and ESMIS reports","USDA Export Sales Reporting","USDA FAS Open Data","UN Comtrade","Brazil MAPA Agrostat"],"scenarioIds":["export-disruption","feed-cost-spike","drought-shock","milk-margin-squeeze","crop-yield-shock","fertilizer-energy-squeeze","credit-interest-squeeze","port-freight-shock"],"scenarioNames":[{"en":"Export or border disruption","es":"Interrupción de exportación","pt":"Interrupção de exportação"},{"en":"Feed cost spike","es":"Salto de costo de alimento","pt":"Alta no custo da ração"},{"en":"Drought tightens forage","es":"Sequía aprieta el forraje","pt":"Seca aperta o pasto"},{"en":"Milk margin squeeze","es":"Compresión de margen lechero","pt":"Aperto na margem do leite"},{"en":"Crop yield shock","es":"Choque de rendimiento agrícola","pt":"Choque de produtividade agrícola"}],"lookbackWindow":"4-52 weeks","forwardWindow":{"en":"1-8 weeks","es":"1-8 semanas","pt":"1-8 semanas"},"confidence":91,"title":{"en":"Export pull changes local basis","es":"Exportación cambia la base local","pt":"Exportação muda a base local"},"currentTrigger":{"en":"U.S. fed cattle marketings changes the official cattle on feed read","es":"Ventas de ganado terminado EE. UU. cambia la lectura oficial de Cattle on Feed","pt":"Vendas de gado terminado EUA muda a leitura oficial de Cattle on Feed"},"triggerDetail":{"en":"1.6 million head in the 2026-05-22 USDA NASS Cattle on Feed; -10.0% versus the prior period. This is an official supply, feed, dairy, or pasture signal to read before treating local prices as isolated.","es":"1.6 millones de cabezas en USDA NASS Cattle on Feed 2026-05-22; -10.0% versus the prior period. Es una senal oficial de oferta, alimento, leche o pasto antes de tratar precios locales como aislados.","pt":"1.6 milhoes de cabecas no USDA NASS Cattle on Feed 2026-05-22; -10.0% versus the prior period. E sinal oficial de oferta, racao, leite ou pasto antes de tratar preco local como isolado."},"historicalPattern":{"en":"Export sales lead shipments; shipments lead customs totals; customs totals confirm structural demand.","es":"Las ventas de exportación adelantan embarques; los embarques adelantan aduana; aduana confirma demanda estructural.","pt":"Vendas de exportação antecipam embarques; embarques antecipam aduana; aduana confirma demanda estrutural."},"leadingSignals":[{"en":"Weekly sales or attaché reports change before monthly trade files","es":"Ventas semanales o reportes cambian antes de comercio mensual","pt":"Vendas semanais ou relatórios mudam antes do comércio mensal"},{"en":"Destination concentration rises","es":"Concentración de destino sube","pt":"Concentração de destino sobe"},{"en":"Currency makes local supply cheaper or dearer to importers","es":"El cambio abarata o encarece oferta local","pt":"Câmbio barateia ou encarece oferta local"}],"forwardEffects":[{"en":"Processor bids widen or narrow by export access","es":"Frigoríficos ajustan ofertas por exportación","pt":"Frigoríficos ajustam ofertas por exportação"},{"en":"Feed and crop basis shifts around ports and corridors","es":"Base de grano cambia en puertos y corredores","pt":"Base de grãos muda em portos e corredores"},{"en":"Sanitary or border events can erase the signal quickly","es":"Sanidad o frontera puede borrar la señal rápido","pt":"Sanidade ou fronteira pode apagar o sinal rápido"}],"producerDecision":{"en":"Check slaughter flow and live weights against local bids before holding unpriced cattle or assuming packer demand is unchanged.","es":"Revisar faena y peso vivo contra ofertas locales antes de retener ganado sin precio o asumir demanda frigorifica igual.","pt":"Checar abate e peso vivo contra preco local antes de segurar gado sem preco ou assumir demanda igual."},"evidenceIds":["usda-nass-cattle-on-feed-fed-cattle-marketings-2026-05-22-official-report-impact","usda-esr-beef-net-sales"]},{"id":"forecast-north-america-crop-balance-to-feed-margin","regionId":"north-america","driverId":"crop-balance-to-feed-margin","priority":"act","sectors":["feed","crops","beef","dairy"],"sourceIds":["usda-nass","nasa-power","faostat","usda-wasde","usda-ers-feed-grains","conab","comex-stat","mexico-siap","gdelt-global-news"],"sourceNames":["USDA NASS QuickStats and ESMIS reports","NASA POWER","FAOSTAT","USDA WASDE historical data","USDA ERS Feed Grains Database"],"scenarioIds":["drought-shock","feed-cost-spike","crop-yield-shock","export-disruption","milk-margin-squeeze","fertilizer-energy-squeeze","credit-interest-squeeze","port-freight-shock"],"scenarioNames":[{"en":"Drought tightens forage","es":"Sequía aprieta el forraje","pt":"Seca aperta o pasto"},{"en":"Feed cost spike","es":"Salto de costo de alimento","pt":"Alta no custo da ração"},{"en":"Crop yield shock","es":"Choque de rendimiento agrícola","pt":"Choque de produtividade agrícola"},{"en":"Export or border disruption","es":"Interrupción de exportación","pt":"Interrupção de exportação"},{"en":"Milk margin squeeze","es":"Compresión de margen lechero","pt":"Aperto na margem do leite"}],"lookbackWindow":"90 days to 5 years","forwardWindow":{"en":"0-12 weeks","es":"0-12 semanas","pt":"0-12 semanas"},"confidence":91,"title":{"en":"Crop balance becomes feed margin","es":"Balance agrícola se vuelve margen","pt":"Balanço agrícola vira margem"},"currentTrigger":{"en":"U.S. pasture good/excellent changes the official crop progress read","es":"Pasto bueno/excelente EE. UU. cambia la lectura oficial de Crop Progress","pt":"Pasto bom/excelente EUA muda a leitura oficial de Crop Progress"},"triggerDetail":{"en":"30 % in the 2026-06-01 USDA NASS Crop Progress; -12.0 points versus last year. This is an official supply, feed, dairy, or pasture signal to read before treating local prices as isolated.","es":"30 % en USDA NASS Crop Progress 2026-06-01; -12.0 points versus last year. Es una senal oficial de oferta, alimento, leche o pasto antes de tratar precios locales como aislados.","pt":"30 % no USDA NASS Crop Progress 2026-06-01; -12.0 points versus last year. E sinal oficial de oferta, racao, leite ou pasto antes de tratar preco local como isolado."},"historicalPattern":{"en":"Acreage and crop condition lead production; production leads feed price; feed price leads cattle and milk margins.","es":"Área y condición del cultivo adelantan producción; producción adelanta alimento; alimento adelanta márgenes ganaderos y lecheros.","pt":"Área e condição da cultura antecipam produção; produção antecipa ração; ração antecipa margens pecuárias e leiteiras."},"leadingSignals":[{"en":"Acreage, crop progress, and soil moisture shift together","es":"Área, avance y humedad cambian juntos","pt":"Área, progresso e umidade mudam juntos"},{"en":"Balance-sheet revisions tighten ending stocks","es":"Revisiones reducen stocks finales","pt":"Revisões reduzem estoques finais"},{"en":"Rail, freight, or port pressure widens local basis","es":"Tren, flete o puerto abre base local","pt":"Trem, frete ou porto abre base local"}],"forwardEffects":[{"en":"Backgrounding and finishing margins compress","es":"Recría y engorde comprimen margen","pt":"Recria e terminação comprimem margem"},{"en":"Dairy ration spend rises before cull flow changes","es":"Dieta lechera sube antes del descarte","pt":"Dieta leiteira sobe antes do descarte"},{"en":"Crop producers may gain price opportunity while livestock producers face cost risk","es":"Agricultores ganan precio mientras ganaderos enfrentan costo","pt":"Agricultores ganham preço enquanto pecuaristas enfrentam custo"}],"producerDecision":{"en":"Move this NASS read into the feed plan now: count forage days, price hay and grain, then compare selling lighter cattle against buying another gain period.","es":"Meter esta lectura NASS en el plan de alimento: contar dias de pasto, cotizar heno y grano, y comparar vender liviano contra comprar otro periodo de ganancia.","pt":"Coloque esta leitura NASS no plano de racao: contar dias de pasto, cotar feno e grao, e comparar vender leve contra comprar outro periodo de ganho."},"evidenceIds":["usda-nass-crop-progress-pasture-good-excellent-2026-06-01-official-report-impact","nasa-power-southern-plains-rainfall-baseline","faostat-cattle-stocks-north-america"]},{"id":"forecast-north-america-positioning-to-hedge-margin","regionId":"north-america","driverId":"positioning-to-hedge-margin","priority":"act","sectors":["beef","dairy","feed","crops"],"sourceIds":["cftc-cot","world-bank-pink-sheet","cme-livestock","usda-ams"],"sourceNames":["CFTC Commitments of Traders","World Bank commodity prices","CME livestock and grain markets","USDA AMS MyMarketNews"],"scenarioIds":["export-disruption","feed-cost-spike","milk-margin-squeeze","crop-yield-shock","fertilizer-energy-squeeze","port-freight-shock","geopolitical-shipping-shock"],"scenarioNames":[{"en":"Export or border disruption","es":"Interrupción de exportación","pt":"Interrupção de exportação"},{"en":"Feed cost spike","es":"Salto de costo de alimento","pt":"Alta no custo da ração"},{"en":"Milk margin squeeze","es":"Compresión de margen lechero","pt":"Aperto na margem do leite"},{"en":"Crop yield shock","es":"Choque de rendimiento agrícola","pt":"Choque de produtividade agrícola"},{"en":"Fertilizer and energy squeeze","es":"Presión de fertilizante y energía","pt":"Aperto de fertilizante e energia"}],"lookbackWindow":"4-52 weeks","forwardWindow":{"en":"1-8 weeks","es":"1-8 semanas","pt":"1-8 semanas"},"confidence":88,"title":{"en":"Futures positioning becomes hedge and margin pressure","es":"El posicionamiento de futuros se vuelve presión de cobertura y margen","pt":"Posicionamento em futuros vira pressão de hedge e margem"},"currentTrigger":{"en":"Live cattle COT positioning changes hedge and feed-risk timing","es":"Ganado gordo posicionamiento COT cambia el momento de cobertura y riesgo de alimento","pt":"Boi gordo posicionamento COT muda o momento de hedge e risco de ração"},"triggerDetail":{"en":"34 % net long / open interest in the latest CFTC Commitments of Traders report. Cattle positioning is a weekly early-warning signal for hedge urgency, retained ownership, and basis risk.","es":"34 % net long / open interest en el reporte COT reciente de CFTC. El posicionamiento de ganado es señal semanal para cobertura, propiedad retenida y riesgo de base.","pt":"34 % net long / open interest no relatório COT recente da CFTC. O posicionamento em boi é sinal semanal para hedge, propriedade retida e risco de base."},"historicalPattern":{"en":"COT positioning shifts before many cash producers feel the basis move; the risk shows up later in hedge cost, feed coverage, and retained ownership.","es":"COT cambia antes de que muchos productores vean moverse la base; luego aparece en costo de cobertura, alimento y propiedad retenida.","pt":"COT muda antes de muitos produtores sentirem a base; depois aparece em custo de hedge, cobertura de ração e propriedade retida."},"leadingSignals":[{"en":"Managed money exits long cattle exposure","es":"Fondos reducen largos en ganado","pt":"Fundos reduzem posição comprada em boi"},{"en":"Corn or soybean-meal shorts cover quickly","es":"Cortos de maíz o harina de soja se cubren rápido","pt":"Vendidos em milho ou farelo se cobrem rápido"},{"en":"Open interest changes while cash bids lag","es":"Interés abierto cambia mientras el físico demora","pt":"Interesse aberto muda enquanto o físico demora"}],"forwardEffects":[{"en":"Hedge urgency rises before local bids fully reprice","es":"Urgencia de cobertura sube antes del precio local","pt":"Urgência de hedge sobe antes do preço local"},{"en":"Feed coverage becomes more valuable when feed shorts unwind","es":"Cobertura de alimento vale más cuando cortos se cierran","pt":"Cobertura de ração vale mais quando vendidos zeram"},{"en":"Retained ownership gets riskier when cattle longs liquidate","es":"Propiedad retenida tiene más riesgo cuando largos liquidan","pt":"Propriedade retida fica mais arriscada quando comprados liquidam"}],"producerDecision":{"en":"Use the COT cattle read with local cash bids before holding unhedged cattle weight or assuming buyer leverage will stay unchanged.","es":"Usar COT de ganado con ofertas locales antes de retener kilos sin cobertura o asumir poder comprador estable.","pt":"Usar COT de boi com preços locais antes de reter peso sem hedge ou assumir poder comprador estável."},"evidenceIds":["cftc-cot-live-cattle-hedge-margin-impact","world-bank-pink-sheet-beef-north-america"]},{"id":"forecast-north-america-heat-load-to-milk-gain","regionId":"north-america","driverId":"heat-load-to-milk-gain","priority":"act","sectors":["dairy","beef","feed","crops"],"sourceIds":["open-meteo-forecast","nasa-power","noaa-cpc","copernicus-cds","brazil-inmet","world-bank-climate"],"sourceNames":["Open-Meteo global weather forecast","NASA POWER","NOAA Climate Prediction Center","Copernicus Climate Data Store","Brazil INMET weather data"],"scenarioIds":["drought-shock","milk-margin-squeeze","crop-yield-shock","feed-cost-spike","heat-stress-milk-loss","water-restriction-shock"],"scenarioNames":[{"en":"Drought tightens forage","es":"Sequía aprieta el forraje","pt":"Seca aperta o pasto"},{"en":"Milk margin squeeze","es":"Compresión de margen lechero","pt":"Aperto na margem do leite"},{"en":"Crop yield shock","es":"Choque de rendimiento agrícola","pt":"Choque de produtividade agrícola"},{"en":"Feed cost spike","es":"Salto de costo de alimento","pt":"Alta no custo da ração"},{"en":"Heat stress cuts milk and gain","es":"Calor reduce leche y ganancia","pt":"Calor corta leite e ganho"}],"lookbackWindow":"7-90 days","forwardWindow":{"en":"0-14 days","es":"0-14 días","pt":"0-14 dias"},"confidence":88,"title":{"en":"Heat load becomes milk and weight-gain drag","es":"Carga de calor reduce leche y ganancia","pt":"Carga térmica vira perda de leite e ganho"},"currentTrigger":{"en":"Southern Plains 7-day water demand forecast: heat and water demand watch","es":"Demanda de agua 7 días en Southern Plains: vigilar calor y demanda de agua","pt":"Demanda de água 7 dias em Southern Plains: observar calor e demanda de água"},"triggerDetail":{"en":"60.8 mm/week forecast for reference evapotranspiration. That is a forward signal for pasture drying, trough checks, shade, dairy comfort, and irrigated feed-crop pressure.","es":"60.8 mm/semana previstos de evapotranspiración de referencia. Es señal futura de secado de pasto, revisión de bebederos, sombra, confort lechero y presión de cultivos forrajeros bajo riego.","pt":"60.8 mm/semana previstos de evapotranspiração de referência. É sinal futuro de secagem do pasto, checagem de bebedouros, sombra, conforto leiteiro e pressão em culturas de ração irrigadas."},"historicalPattern":{"en":"Heat and humidity affect intake first, then milk, weight gain, conception, and sale timing.","es":"Calor y humedad afectan consumo primero, luego leche, ganancia, preñez y ventas.","pt":"Calor e umidade afetam consumo primeiro, depois leite, ganho, prenhez e venda."},"leadingSignals":[{"en":"Temperature-humidity pressure rises for multiple days","es":"Presión temperatura-humedad sube varios días","pt":"Pressão temperatura-umidade sobe por vários dias"},{"en":"Water demand and night cooling fail to reset","es":"Demanda de agua y noche no se recuperan","pt":"Demanda de água e noite não resetam"},{"en":"Feed intake falls before production reports update","es":"Consumo cae antes del reporte productivo","pt":"Consumo cai antes do relatório produtivo"}],"forwardEffects":[{"en":"Milk output and components weaken","es":"Leche y sólidos se debilitan","pt":"Leite e sólidos enfraquecem"},{"en":"Finishing cattle gain less efficiently","es":"Ganado de engorde gana menos eficientemente","pt":"Gado terminado ganha com menor eficiência"},{"en":"Water, shade, and ration timing become margin controls","es":"Agua, sombra y dieta controlan margen","pt":"Água, sombra e dieta controlam margem"}],"producerDecision":{"en":"Move water checks, shade, transport timing, and dairy heat-abatement ahead of the forecast peak before assuming cattle will keep eating and gaining normally.","es":"Adelantar agua, sombra, horario de transporte y mitigación de calor lechero antes del pico previsto, sin asumir consumo y ganancia normales.","pt":"Antecipar checagem de água, sombra, horário de transporte e conforto térmico leiteiro antes do pico previsto, sem assumir consumo e ganho normais."},"evidenceIds":["open-meteo-water-demand-southern-plains-water-heat-impact","nasa-power-southern-plains-rainfall-baseline","nasa-power-southern-plains"]},{"id":"forecast-north-america-geopolitical-shock-to-feed-freight","regionId":"north-america","driverId":"geopolitical-shock-to-feed-freight","priority":"act","sectors":["beef","dairy","feed","crops"],"sourceIds":["world-bank-pink-sheet","gdelt-global-news","reliefweb-agriculture","fao-giews","suez-canal-authority","panama-canal-authority","baltic-exchange","eia-fuel","un-comtrade","usda-oce-port-grain"],"sourceNames":["World Bank commodity prices","GDELT global event monitor","ReliefWeb agriculture and disaster reports","FAO GIEWS country briefs","Suez Canal Authority traffic statistics"],"scenarioIds":["fertilizer-energy-squeeze","feed-cost-spike","crop-yield-shock","drought-shock","export-disruption","milk-margin-squeeze","credit-interest-squeeze","port-freight-shock"],"scenarioNames":[{"en":"Fertilizer and energy squeeze","es":"Presión de fertilizante y energía","pt":"Aperto de fertilizante e energia"},{"en":"Feed cost spike","es":"Salto de costo de alimento","pt":"Alta no custo da ração"},{"en":"Crop yield shock","es":"Choque de rendimiento agrícola","pt":"Choque de produtividade agrícola"},{"en":"Drought tightens forage","es":"Sequía aprieta el forraje","pt":"Seca aperta o pasto"},{"en":"Export or border disruption","es":"Interrupción de exportación","pt":"Interrupção de exportação"}],"lookbackWindow":"Same day to 3 years","forwardWindow":{"en":"Same month to 6 months","es":"mismo mes a 6 meses","pt":"mesmo mês a 6 meses"},"confidence":84,"title":{"en":"Geopolitical shocks become feed, freight, and basis risk","es":"Choques geopolíticos se vuelven riesgo de alimento, flete y base","pt":"Choques geopolíticos viram risco de ração, frete e base"},"currentTrigger":{"en":"North America Global Brent crude oil price is moving the margin stack","es":"Precio global de petróleo Brent en Norteamérica mueve la pila de margen","pt":"Preço global do petróleo Brent em América do Norte move a pilha de margem"},"triggerDetail":{"en":"107.5 $/bbl in the latest World Bank commodity sheet. Read this against pasture input, fertilizer, diesel, freight, and working capital.","es":"107.5 USD/bbl en la hoja reciente de commodities del Banco Mundial. Leerlo contra insumos de pasto, fertilizante, diésel, flete y capital de trabajo.","pt":"107.5 USD/bbl na planilha recente de commodities do Banco Mundial. Leia contra insumos de pasto, fertilizante, diesel, frete e capital de giro."},"historicalPattern":{"en":"Conflict, sanctions, or shipping-route stress can move fuel, fertilizer, grain, and freight before farmgate cattle or milk prices adjust.","es":"Conflicto, sanciones o rutas marítimas pueden mover combustible, fertilizante, grano y flete antes del precio rural.","pt":"Conflito, sanções ou rotas marítimas podem mover combustível, fertilizante, grão e frete antes do preço rural."},"leadingSignals":[{"en":"Red Sea, Black Sea, canal, port, or border headlines mention grain, fertilizer, fuel, or livestock routes","es":"Titulares de Mar Rojo, Mar Negro, canales, puertos o frontera mencionan granos, fertilizante, combustible o ganado","pt":"Manchetes de Mar Vermelho, Mar Negro, canais, portos ou fronteira mencionam grãos, fertilizante, combustível ou gado"},{"en":"Freight, fuel, fertilizer, or grain indexes move before delivered feed quotes reset","es":"Flete, combustible, fertilizante o granos se mueven antes del alimento entregado","pt":"Frete, combustível, fertilizante ou grãos se movem antes da ração entregue"},{"en":"Destination or route risk weakens the translation from global price to local bid","es":"Riesgo de destino o ruta debilita la traducción de precio global a oferta local","pt":"Risco de destino ou rota enfraquece a tradução de preço global em preço local"}],"forwardEffects":[{"en":"Delivered feed and fertilizer become more expensive or less reliable","es":"Alimento y fertilizante entregados se encarecen o pierden confiabilidad","pt":"Ração e fertilizante entregues ficam mais caros ou menos confiáveis"},{"en":"Local basis can diverge from headline futures or export values","es":"La base local puede separarse de futuros o valores exportadores","pt":"A base local pode se separar de futuros ou valores de exportação"},{"en":"Local feed substitution, earlier sale timing, or destination hedging becomes valuable","es":"Sustitución local, venta más temprana o cobertura de destino gana valor","pt":"Substituição local, venda antecipada ou hedge de destino ganha valor"}],"producerDecision":{"en":"Reprice the next gain period, forage plan, and delivered-feed bill before buying inputs or holding cattle longer.","es":"Recalcular próximo período de ganancia, forraje y alimento entregado antes de comprar insumos o retener ganado.","pt":"Recalcule próximo período de ganho, forragem e ração entregue antes de comprar insumos ou reter gado."},"evidenceIds":["world-bank-pink-sheet-crude-oil-north-america-commodity-margin-impact","world-bank-pink-sheet-beef-north-america"]},{"id":"forecast-north-america-dairy-margin-to-beef-supply","regionId":"north-america","driverId":"dairy-margin-to-beef-supply","priority":"act","sectors":["dairy","beef","feed"],"sourceIds":["bls-ag-inputs","world-bank-pink-sheet","eu-milk","gdt-events","usda-ers-dairy","usda-ams","mexico-siap","ibge-sidra","brazil-bcb-sgs","gdelt-global-news"],"sourceNames":["U.S. BLS farm input prices","World Bank commodity prices","EU Milk Market Observatory","Global Dairy Trade","USDA ERS dairy data"],"scenarioIds":["feed-cost-spike","fertilizer-energy-squeeze","milk-margin-squeeze","drought-shock","export-disruption","credit-interest-squeeze","port-freight-shock","geopolitical-shipping-shock"],"scenarioNames":[{"en":"Feed cost spike","es":"Salto de costo de alimento","pt":"Alta no custo da ração"},{"en":"Fertilizer and energy squeeze","es":"Presión de fertilizante y energía","pt":"Aperto de fertilizante e energia"},{"en":"Milk margin squeeze","es":"Compresión de margen lechero","pt":"Aperto na margem do leite"},{"en":"Drought tightens forage","es":"Sequía aprieta el forraje","pt":"Seca aperta o pasto"},{"en":"Export or border disruption","es":"Interrupción de exportación","pt":"Interrupção de exportação"}],"lookbackWindow":"4-26 weeks","forwardWindow":{"en":"Same month to 3 months","es":"mismo mes a 3 meses","pt":"mesmo mês a 3 meses"},"confidence":81,"title":{"en":"Dairy margins become beef supply","es":"Margen lechero se vuelve carne","pt":"Margem do leite vira carne"},"currentTrigger":{"en":"U.S. livestock product producer price index changes feed-margin math","es":"Índice de precios ganaderos de EE. UU. cambia la cuenta del margen","pt":"Índice de preços pecuários dos EUA muda a conta da margem"},"triggerDetail":{"en":"168.7 index in the latest BLS public time-series file. Feed-linked producer prices can move faster than cattle sale values.","es":"168.7 índice en el archivo público reciente de series BLS. Precios ligados a alimento pueden moverse más rápido que el valor del ganado.","pt":"168.7 índice no arquivo público recente de séries BLS. Preços ligados à ração podem mover mais rápido que o valor do gado."},"historicalPattern":{"en":"Milk price and feed cost hit dairy margins before cull cow flow and beef supply respond.","es":"Precio de leche y alimento golpean el margen antes de que cambien descarte y oferta de carne.","pt":"Preço do leite e ração atingem a margem antes de mudar descarte e oferta de carne."},"leadingSignals":[{"en":"Milk-feed spread narrows","es":"Diferencial leche-alimento se achica","pt":"Spread leite-ração diminui"},{"en":"Dairy auction prices weaken","es":"Subastas lácteas bajan","pt":"Leilões lácteos caem"},{"en":"Feed and energy prices rise together","es":"Alimento y energía suben juntos","pt":"Ração e energia sobem juntas"}],"forwardEffects":[{"en":"Cull cows enter beef supply","es":"Vacas de descarte entran a carne","pt":"Vacas de descarte entram na carne"},{"en":"Replacement appetite weakens","es":"Apetito de reposición baja","pt":"Apetite de reposição cai"},{"en":"Milk output can fall after ration cuts","es":"La leche puede caer tras recortes de dieta","pt":"Leite pode cair após corte de dieta"}],"producerDecision":{"en":"Reprice the next gain period and feed coverage before holding cattle for extra weight.","es":"Recalcular el próximo período de ganancia y cobertura de alimento antes de retener ganado.","pt":"Recalcular o próximo período de ganho e cobertura de ração antes de reter gado."},"evidenceIds":["bls-ag-inputs-livestock_product_ppi-margin-impact","world-bank-pink-sheet-beef-north-america"]},{"id":"forecast-north-america-credit-cost-to-retention","regionId":"north-america","driverId":"credit-cost-to-retention","priority":"act","sectors":["beef","dairy","feed","crops"],"sourceIds":["bls-ag-inputs","world-bank-wdi","fred-ag-macro","imf-ifs","brazil-bcb-sgs"],"sourceNames":["U.S. BLS farm input prices","World Bank World Development Indicators","FRED agriculture macro series","IMF International Financial Statistics","Banco Central do Brasil SGS"],"scenarioIds":["feed-cost-spike","fertilizer-energy-squeeze","milk-margin-squeeze","credit-interest-squeeze"],"scenarioNames":[{"en":"Feed cost spike","es":"Salto de costo de alimento","pt":"Alta no custo da ração"},{"en":"Fertilizer and energy squeeze","es":"Presión de fertilizante y energía","pt":"Aperto de fertilizante e energia"},{"en":"Milk margin squeeze","es":"Compresión de margen lechero","pt":"Aperto na margem do leite"},{"en":"Credit and interest squeeze","es":"Presión de crédito e intereses","pt":"Aperto de crédito e juros"}],"lookbackWindow":"30 days to 5 years","forwardWindow":{"en":"Same month to 3 months","es":"mismo mes a 3 meses","pt":"mesmo mês a 3 meses"},"confidence":80,"title":{"en":"Credit cost changes retention and input timing","es":"Costo de crédito cambia retención e insumos","pt":"Custo de crédito muda retenção e insumos"},"currentTrigger":{"en":"U.S. livestock product producer price index changes feed-margin math","es":"Índice de precios ganaderos de EE. UU. cambia la cuenta del margen","pt":"Índice de preços pecuários dos EUA muda a conta da margem"},"triggerDetail":{"en":"168.7 index in the latest BLS public time-series file. Feed-linked producer prices can move faster than cattle sale values.","es":"168.7 índice en el archivo público reciente de series BLS. Precios ligados a alimento pueden moverse más rápido que el valor del ganado.","pt":"168.7 índice no arquivo público recente de séries BLS. Preços ligados à ração podem mover mais rápido que o valor do gado."},"historicalPattern":{"en":"Interest and credit changes hit input prepay and replacements before they show up in herd-size data.","es":"Interés y crédito golpean insumos y reposición antes de aparecer en el tamaño del hato.","pt":"Juros e crédito atingem insumos e reposição antes de aparecer no tamanho do rebanho."},"leadingSignals":[{"en":"Policy rates, farm credit, or inflation move together","es":"Tasas, crédito rural o inflación se mueven juntos","pt":"Juros, crédito rural ou inflação se movem juntos"},{"en":"Replacement purchases slow even when cattle prices look attractive","es":"Reposición se frena aunque el precio parezca atractivo","pt":"Reposição freia mesmo com preço atrativo"},{"en":"Input prepay windows get shorter","es":"Ventanas de prepago de insumos se acortan","pt":"Janelas de pré-pagamento de insumos encurtam"}],"forwardEffects":[{"en":"Retained ownership becomes harder to finance","es":"Propiedad retenida se vuelve más difícil","pt":"Propriedade retida fica mais difícil"},{"en":"Crop input timing can shift acreage and feed supply","es":"Insumos cambian área y oferta de alimento","pt":"Insumos mudam área e oferta de ração"},{"en":"Dairy ration and replacement choices tighten","es":"Dieta y reposición lechera se ajustan","pt":"Dieta e reposição leiteira apertam"}],"producerDecision":{"en":"Reprice the next gain period and feed coverage before holding cattle for extra weight.","es":"Recalcular el próximo período de ganancia y cobertura de alimento antes de retener ganado.","pt":"Recalcular o próximo período de ganho e cobertura de ração antes de reter gado."},"evidenceIds":["bls-ag-inputs-livestock_product_ppi-margin-impact","world-bank-wdi-livestock_production_index-canada"]},{"id":"forecast-north-america-logistics-to-local-basis","regionId":"north-america","driverId":"logistics-to-local-basis","priority":"watch","sectors":["beef","dairy","feed","crops"],"sourceIds":["eia-fuel","un-comtrade","brazil-mapa-agrostat","comex-stat","gdelt-global-news"],"sourceNames":["U.S. EIA fuel prices","UN Comtrade","Brazil MAPA Agrostat","Brazil Comex Stat","GDELT global event monitor"],"scenarioIds":["fertilizer-energy-squeeze","feed-cost-spike","drought-shock","export-disruption","milk-margin-squeeze","crop-yield-shock","credit-interest-squeeze","port-freight-shock"],"scenarioNames":[{"en":"Fertilizer and energy squeeze","es":"Presión de fertilizante y energía","pt":"Aperto de fertilizante e energia"},{"en":"Feed cost spike","es":"Salto de costo de alimento","pt":"Alta no custo da ração"},{"en":"Drought tightens forage","es":"Sequía aprieta el forraje","pt":"Seca aperta o pasto"},{"en":"Export or border disruption","es":"Interrupción de exportación","pt":"Interrupção de exportação"},{"en":"Milk margin squeeze","es":"Compresión de margen lechero","pt":"Aperto na margem do leite"}],"lookbackWindow":"7 days to 3 years","forwardWindow":{"en":"Same week to 8 weeks","es":"misma semana a 8 semanas","pt":"mesma semana a 8 semanas"},"confidence":82,"title":{"en":"Logistics shocks become local basis gaps","es":"Choques logísticos se vuelven brechas de base","pt":"Choques logísticos viram gaps de base"},"currentTrigger":{"en":"Diesel changes delivered feed and cattle-hauling math","es":"El diesel cambia la cuenta de alimento entregado y flete ganadero","pt":"Diesel muda a conta de ração entregue e frete do gado"},"triggerDetail":{"en":"5.4 $/gal in the latest EIA weekly diesel series. Freight can change the real cost of hay, feed, and cattle movement before local bids adjust.","es":"5.4 USD/gal en la serie semanal de diesel de EIA. El flete puede cambiar el costo real de heno, alimento y movimiento antes de que ajusten las ofertas.","pt":"5.4 USD/gal na serie semanal de diesel da EIA. O frete pode mudar o custo real de feno, ração e movimentação antes dos preços locais ajustarem."},"historicalPattern":{"en":"Freight and port disruption can widen local basis before national price series register the stress.","es":"Flete y puertos pueden abrir base local antes de que el precio nacional lo refleje.","pt":"Frete e portos podem abrir base local antes do preço nacional refletir."},"leadingSignals":[{"en":"Fuel, port, rail, or border news moves before farmgate averages","es":"Combustible, puerto, tren o frontera se mueven antes del precio rural","pt":"Combustível, porto, trem ou fronteira se movem antes do preço rural"},{"en":"Delivered feed diverges from board or benchmark price","es":"Alimento entregado se separa del precio de referencia","pt":"Ração entregue se separa do preço de referência"},{"en":"Destination prices stop translating to local bids","es":"Precio destino deja de traducirse a oferta local","pt":"Preço destino deixa de virar preço local"}],"forwardEffects":[{"en":"Cattle, hay, milk, grain, and fertilizer spreads widen by corridor","es":"Ganado, heno, leche, grano e insumos abren diferenciales por corredor","pt":"Gado, feno, leite, grão e insumos abrem diferenciais por corredor"},{"en":"Local arbitrage opportunities can appear","es":"Pueden aparecer arbitrajes locales","pt":"Podem aparecer arbitragens locais"},{"en":"Remote producers face discount risk even in strong headline markets","es":"Productores remotos tienen descuento aun con mercado fuerte","pt":"Produtores remotos têm desconto mesmo com mercado forte"}],"producerDecision":{"en":"Use delivered-cost math before holding cattle for extra weight or buying hay from farther away.","es":"Usar costo entregado antes de retener ganado por mas kilos o comprar heno mas lejos.","pt":"Usar custo entregue antes de reter gado para mais peso ou comprar feno mais longe."},"evidenceIds":["eia-diesel-us-freight-feed-impact","eia-diesel-us-freight-feed"]}]},{"regionId":"latin-america","regionName":{"en":"Latin America","es":"América Latina","pt":"América Latina"},"pathwayCount":9,"actNowCount":9,"watchCount":0,"opportunityCount":0,"pathways":[{"id":"forecast-latin-america-export-pull-to-local-basis","regionId":"latin-america","driverId":"export-pull-to-local-basis","priority":"act","sectors":["beef","dairy","feed","crops"],"sourceIds":["comex-stat","brazil-bcb-sgs","usda-fas","usda-esr","un-comtrade","brazil-mapa-agrostat","mexico-siap","gdelt-global-news"],"sourceNames":["Brazil Comex Stat","Banco Central do Brasil SGS","USDA FAS Open Data","USDA Export Sales Reporting","UN Comtrade"],"scenarioIds":["export-disruption","feed-cost-spike","fertilizer-energy-squeeze","drought-shock","milk-margin-squeeze","crop-yield-shock","credit-interest-squeeze","port-freight-shock"],"scenarioNames":[{"en":"Export or border disruption","es":"Interrupción de exportación","pt":"Interrupção de exportação"},{"en":"Feed cost spike","es":"Salto de costo de alimento","pt":"Alta no custo da ração"},{"en":"Fertilizer and energy squeeze","es":"Presión de fertilizante y energía","pt":"Aperto de fertilizante e energia"},{"en":"Drought tightens forage","es":"Sequía aprieta el forraje","pt":"Seca aperta o pasto"},{"en":"Milk margin squeeze","es":"Compresión de margen lechero","pt":"Aperto na margem do leite"}],"lookbackWindow":"4-52 weeks","forwardWindow":{"en":"2-12 weeks","es":"2-12 semanas","pt":"2-12 semanas"},"confidence":91,"title":{"en":"Export pull changes local basis","es":"Exportación cambia la base local","pt":"Exportação muda a base local"},"currentTrigger":{"en":"Brazil beef export value changes Brazil trade pressure","es":"Valor exportado de carne bovina Brasil cambia la presion comercial de Brasil","pt":"Valor exportado de carne bovina Brasil muda a pressao comercial do Brasil"},"triggerDetail":{"en":"1,704 USD million in the latest official Comex Stat export flow. Beef export flow is a clean monthly read on processor bid support and local basis pressure.","es":"1,704 millones USD en el flujo exportador oficial reciente de Comex Stat. El flujo exportador de carne mide soporte frigorifico mensual y presion de base local.","pt":"1,704 US$ milhões no fluxo oficial recente de exportacao do Comex Stat. Fluxo exportador de carne mede suporte mensal de frigorifico e pressao de base local."},"historicalPattern":{"en":"Export sales lead shipments; shipments lead customs totals; customs totals confirm structural demand.","es":"Las ventas de exportación adelantan embarques; los embarques adelantan aduana; aduana confirma demanda estructural.","pt":"Vendas de exportação antecipam embarques; embarques antecipam aduana; aduana confirma demanda estrutural."},"leadingSignals":[{"en":"Weekly sales or attaché reports change before monthly trade files","es":"Ventas semanales o reportes cambian antes de comercio mensual","pt":"Vendas semanais ou relatórios mudam antes do comércio mensal"},{"en":"Destination concentration rises","es":"Concentración de destino sube","pt":"Concentração de destino sobe"},{"en":"Currency makes local supply cheaper or dearer to importers","es":"El cambio abarata o encarece oferta local","pt":"Câmbio barateia ou encarece oferta local"}],"forwardEffects":[{"en":"Processor bids widen or narrow by export access","es":"Frigoríficos ajustan ofertas por exportación","pt":"Frigoríficos ajustam ofertas por exportação"},{"en":"Feed and crop basis shifts around ports and corridors","es":"Base de grano cambia en puertos y corredores","pt":"Base de grãos muda em portos e corredores"},{"en":"Sanitary or border events can erase the signal quickly","es":"Sanidad o frontera puede borrar la señal rápido","pt":"Sanidade ou fronteira pode apagar o sinal rápido"}],"producerDecision":{"en":"Price sale timing with local bids, USD/BRL, destination concentration, and pasture days instead of trusting a single national price headline.","es":"Valuar venta con ofertas locales, USD/BRL, concentracion de destino y dias de pasto, no solo con un titular nacional.","pt":"Precificar venda com preco local, USD/BRL, concentracao de destino e dias de pasto, nao so com manchete nacional."},"evidenceIds":["comex-brazil-beef-export-value-trade-flow-impact","bcb-usd-brl-30d-baseline","fas-psd-ar-beef"]},{"id":"forecast-latin-america-herd-concentration-to-basis","regionId":"latin-america","driverId":"herd-concentration-to-basis","priority":"act","sectors":["beef","feed","crops"],"sourceIds":["comex-stat","brazil-bcb-sgs","ibge-sidra","cepea-boi","mexico-siap"],"sourceNames":["Brazil Comex Stat","Banco Central do Brasil SGS","IBGE SIDRA","CEPEA/ESALQ cattle indicators","Mexico SIAP livestock data"],"scenarioIds":["export-disruption","feed-cost-spike","fertilizer-energy-squeeze","drought-shock","credit-interest-squeeze"],"scenarioNames":[{"en":"Export or border disruption","es":"Interrupción de exportación","pt":"Interrupção de exportação"},{"en":"Feed cost spike","es":"Salto de costo de alimento","pt":"Alta no custo da ração"},{"en":"Fertilizer and energy squeeze","es":"Presión de fertilizante y energía","pt":"Aperto de fertilizante e energia"},{"en":"Drought tightens forage","es":"Sequía aprieta el forraje","pt":"Seca aperta o pasto"},{"en":"Credit and interest squeeze","es":"Presión de crédito e intereses","pt":"Aperto de crédito e juros"}],"lookbackWindow":"1-10 years","forwardWindow":{"en":"2-12 weeks","es":"2-12 semanas","pt":"2-12 semanas"},"confidence":91,"title":{"en":"Regional herd concentration becomes basis pressure","es":"Concentración regional del hato se vuelve presión de base","pt":"Concentração regional do rebanho vira pressão de base"},"currentTrigger":{"en":"Brazil beef export value changes Brazil trade pressure","es":"Valor exportado de carne bovina Brasil cambia la presion comercial de Brasil","pt":"Valor exportado de carne bovina Brasil muda a pressao comercial do Brasil"},"triggerDetail":{"en":"1,704 USD million in the latest official Comex Stat export flow. Beef export flow is a clean monthly read on processor bid support and local basis pressure.","es":"1,704 millones USD en el flujo exportador oficial reciente de Comex Stat. El flujo exportador de carne mide soporte frigorifico mensual y presion de base local.","pt":"1,704 US$ milhões no fluxo oficial recente de exportacao do Comex Stat. Fluxo exportador de carne mede suporte mensal de frigorifico e pressao de base local."},"historicalPattern":{"en":"Herd concentration changes local sale pressure slowly, but weather, freight, and export bids can pull that pressure into the next quarter.","es":"La concentración del hato cambia la presión local lentamente, pero clima, flete y exportación pueden adelantar el efecto al próximo trimestre.","pt":"A concentração do rebanho muda a pressão local lentamente, mas clima, frete e exportação podem puxar esse efeito para o próximo trimestre."},"leadingSignals":[{"en":"State herd share rises in export-linked regions","es":"Sube la participación del hato en estados exportadores","pt":"Sobe a participação do rebanho em estados exportadores"},{"en":"Freight or pasture pressure diverges by state","es":"Flete o pasto se separan por estado","pt":"Frete ou pasto divergem por estado"},{"en":"Local cattle basis moves before national averages","es":"La base local se mueve antes del promedio nacional","pt":"A base local se move antes da média nacional"}],"forwardEffects":[{"en":"Regional sale pressure can widen local discounts","es":"La presión regional puede ampliar descuentos locales","pt":"Pressão regional pode ampliar descontos locais"},{"en":"Export-heavy states can pull cattle away from domestic buyers","es":"Estados exportadores pueden sacar ganado del mercado interno","pt":"Estados exportadores podem puxar gado do mercado interno"},{"en":"Feed and crop corridors feel freight and pasture stress together","es":"Corredores de alimento sienten flete y pasto juntos","pt":"Corredores de ração sentem frete e pasto juntos"}],"producerDecision":{"en":"Price sale timing with local bids, USD/BRL, destination concentration, and pasture days instead of trusting a single national price headline.","es":"Valuar venta con ofertas locales, USD/BRL, concentracion de destino y dias de pasto, no solo con un titular nacional.","pt":"Precificar venda com preco local, USD/BRL, concentracao de destino e dias de pasto, nao so com manchete nacional."},"evidenceIds":["comex-brazil-beef-export-value-trade-flow-impact","bcb-usd-brl-30d-baseline","ibge-brazil-cattle-herd"]},{"id":"forecast-latin-america-logistics-to-local-basis","regionId":"latin-america","driverId":"logistics-to-local-basis","priority":"act","sectors":["beef","dairy","feed","crops"],"sourceIds":["comex-stat","eia-fuel","un-comtrade","brazil-mapa-agrostat","gdelt-global-news"],"sourceNames":["Brazil Comex Stat","U.S. EIA fuel prices","UN Comtrade","Brazil MAPA Agrostat","GDELT global event monitor"],"scenarioIds":["export-disruption","feed-cost-spike","drought-shock","milk-margin-squeeze","crop-yield-shock","fertilizer-energy-squeeze","credit-interest-squeeze","port-freight-shock"],"scenarioNames":[{"en":"Export or border disruption","es":"Interrupción de exportación","pt":"Interrupção de exportação"},{"en":"Feed cost spike","es":"Salto de costo de alimento","pt":"Alta no custo da ração"},{"en":"Drought tightens forage","es":"Sequía aprieta el forraje","pt":"Seca aperta o pasto"},{"en":"Milk margin squeeze","es":"Compresión de margen lechero","pt":"Aperto na margem do leite"},{"en":"Crop yield shock","es":"Choque de rendimiento agrícola","pt":"Choque de produtividade agrícola"}],"lookbackWindow":"7 days to 3 years","forwardWindow":{"en":"2-12 weeks","es":"2-12 semanas","pt":"2-12 semanas"},"confidence":91,"title":{"en":"Logistics shocks become local basis gaps","es":"Choques logísticos se vuelven brechas de base","pt":"Choques logísticos viram gaps de base"},"currentTrigger":{"en":"Brazil beef export value changes Brazil trade pressure","es":"Valor exportado de carne bovina Brasil cambia la presion comercial de Brasil","pt":"Valor exportado de carne bovina Brasil muda a pressao comercial do Brasil"},"triggerDetail":{"en":"1,704 USD million in the latest official Comex Stat export flow. Beef export flow is a clean monthly read on processor bid support and local basis pressure.","es":"1,704 millones USD en el flujo exportador oficial reciente de Comex Stat. El flujo exportador de carne mide soporte frigorifico mensual y presion de base local.","pt":"1,704 US$ milhões no fluxo oficial recente de exportacao do Comex Stat. Fluxo exportador de carne mede suporte mensal de frigorifico e pressao de base local."},"historicalPattern":{"en":"Freight and port disruption can widen local basis before national price series register the stress.","es":"Flete y puertos pueden abrir base local antes de que el precio nacional lo refleje.","pt":"Frete e portos podem abrir base local antes do preço nacional refletir."},"leadingSignals":[{"en":"Fuel, port, rail, or border news moves before farmgate averages","es":"Combustible, puerto, tren o frontera se mueven antes del precio rural","pt":"Combustível, porto, trem ou fronteira se movem antes do preço rural"},{"en":"Delivered feed diverges from board or benchmark price","es":"Alimento entregado se separa del precio de referencia","pt":"Ração entregue se separa do preço de referência"},{"en":"Destination prices stop translating to local bids","es":"Precio destino deja de traducirse a oferta local","pt":"Preço destino deixa de virar preço local"}],"forwardEffects":[{"en":"Cattle, hay, milk, grain, and fertilizer spreads widen by corridor","es":"Ganado, heno, leche, grano e insumos abren diferenciales por corredor","pt":"Gado, feno, leite, grão e insumos abrem diferenciais por corredor"},{"en":"Local arbitrage opportunities can appear","es":"Pueden aparecer arbitrajes locales","pt":"Podem aparecer arbitragens locais"},{"en":"Remote producers face discount risk even in strong headline markets","es":"Productores remotos tienen descuento aun con mercado fuerte","pt":"Produtores remotos têm desconto mesmo com mercado forte"}],"producerDecision":{"en":"Price sale timing with local bids, USD/BRL, destination concentration, and pasture days instead of trusting a single national price headline.","es":"Valuar venta con ofertas locales, USD/BRL, concentracion de destino y dias de pasto, no solo con un titular nacional.","pt":"Precificar venda com preco local, USD/BRL, concentracao de destino e dias de pasto, nao so com manchete nacional."},"evidenceIds":["comex-brazil-beef-export-value-trade-flow-impact","comex-brazil-beef-export-value"]},{"id":"forecast-latin-america-pasture-stress-to-sale-runs","regionId":"latin-america","driverId":"pasture-stress-to-sale-runs","priority":"act","sectors":["beef","dairy","feed","crops"],"sourceIds":["usda-fas","nasa-power","us-drought-monitor","copernicus-cds","bom-climate","brazil-inmet","mexico-siap","gdelt-global-news"],"sourceNames":["USDA FAS Open Data","NASA POWER","U.S. Drought Monitor","Copernicus Climate Data Store","Australian Bureau of Meteorology"],"scenarioIds":["drought-shock","feed-cost-spike","crop-yield-shock","export-disruption","milk-margin-squeeze","fertilizer-energy-squeeze","credit-interest-squeeze","port-freight-shock"],"scenarioNames":[{"en":"Drought tightens forage","es":"Sequía aprieta el forraje","pt":"Seca aperta o pasto"},{"en":"Feed cost spike","es":"Salto de costo de alimento","pt":"Alta no custo da ração"},{"en":"Crop yield shock","es":"Choque de rendimiento agrícola","pt":"Choque de produtividade agrícola"},{"en":"Export or border disruption","es":"Interrupción de exportación","pt":"Interrupção de exportação"},{"en":"Milk margin squeeze","es":"Compresión de margen lechero","pt":"Aperto na margem do leite"}],"lookbackWindow":"30-120 days","forwardWindow":{"en":"1 month to 1 year","es":"1 mes a 1 ano","pt":"1 mes a 1 ano"},"confidence":90,"title":{"en":"Pasture stress becomes sale pressure","es":"Estrés de pasto se vuelve venta","pt":"Estresse de pasto vira venda"},"currentTrigger":{"en":"Argentina PSD cattle herd and slaughter updates the long-cycle supply read","es":"Argentina PSD hato y faena bovina actualiza la lectura de oferta de ciclo largo","pt":"Argentina PSD rebanho e abate bovino atualiza a leitura de oferta de ciclo longo"},"triggerDetail":{"en":"52,420 thousand head in USDA FAS PSD for Argentina. The balance sheet is +1.6% versus 2025, so read it against local prices instead of treating daily headlines as isolated events.","es":"52,420 thousand head en USDA FAS PSD para Argentina. El balance es +1.6% versus 2025; leerlo contra precios locales en vez de tratar titulares diarios como eventos aislados.","pt":"52,420 thousand head no USDA FAS PSD para Argentina. O balanco e +1.6% versus 2025; leia contra precos locais em vez de tratar manchetes diarias como eventos isolados."},"historicalPattern":{"en":"Pasture stress usually hits feed buying first, sale runs second, and replacement prices last.","es":"El estrés de pasto suele mover primero la compra de alimento, luego las ventas y al final la reposición.","pt":"O estresse de pasto costuma mover primeiro a compra de ração, depois as vendas e por fim a reposição."},"leadingSignals":[{"en":"Soil moisture drops below seasonal median","es":"Humedad de suelo cae bajo la mediana","pt":"Umidade do solo cai abaixo da mediana"},{"en":"Pasture condition ratings deteriorate","es":"Condición de pasto se deteriora","pt":"Condição do pasto piora"},{"en":"Hay and supplement quotes firm before auction volume rises","es":"Heno y suplemento suben antes del remate","pt":"Feno e suplemento sobem antes do leilão"}],"forwardEffects":[{"en":"More calves and cull cows move earlier","es":"Más terneros y descartes salen antes","pt":"Mais bezerros e descartes saem antes"},{"en":"Replacement animals face discount risk in dry regions","es":"Reposición tiene riesgo de descuento en zonas secas","pt":"Reposição tem risco de desconto em zonas secas"},{"en":"Feed cost can erase the value of extra gain","es":"El alimento borra el valor de más ganancia","pt":"Ração apaga o valor de mais ganho"}],"producerDecision":{"en":"Use the PSD herd balance before retaining replacements, buying feeders, or assuming local supply will stay loose or tight.","es":"Usar el balance PSD del hato antes de retener reposicion, comprar invernada o asumir oferta local floja o ajustada.","pt":"Usar o balanco PSD do rebanho antes de reter reposicao, comprar recria ou assumir oferta local frouxa ou apertada."},"evidenceIds":["fas-psd-ar-cattle-balance-sheet-impact","nasa-power-mato-grosso-rainfall-baseline","nasa-power-mato-grosso"]},{"id":"forecast-latin-america-crop-balance-to-feed-margin","regionId":"latin-america","driverId":"crop-balance-to-feed-margin","priority":"act","sectors":["feed","crops","beef","dairy"],"sourceIds":["usda-wasde","nasa-power","faostat","usda-nass","usda-ers-feed-grains","conab","comex-stat","mexico-siap","gdelt-global-news"],"sourceNames":["USDA WASDE historical data","NASA POWER","FAOSTAT","USDA NASS QuickStats and ESMIS reports","USDA ERS Feed Grains Database"],"scenarioIds":["feed-cost-spike","crop-yield-shock","drought-shock","export-disruption","milk-margin-squeeze","fertilizer-energy-squeeze","credit-interest-squeeze","port-freight-shock"],"scenarioNames":[{"en":"Feed cost spike","es":"Salto de costo de alimento","pt":"Alta no custo da ração"},{"en":"Crop yield shock","es":"Choque de rendimiento agrícola","pt":"Choque de produtividade agrícola"},{"en":"Drought tightens forage","es":"Sequía aprieta el forraje","pt":"Seca aperta o pasto"},{"en":"Export or border disruption","es":"Interrupción de exportación","pt":"Interrupção de exportação"},{"en":"Milk margin squeeze","es":"Compresión de margen lechero","pt":"Aperto na margem do leite"}],"lookbackWindow":"90 days to 5 years","forwardWindow":{"en":"1 month to 1 year","es":"1 mes a 1 ano","pt":"1 mes a 1 ano"},"confidence":90,"title":{"en":"Crop balance becomes feed margin","es":"Balance agrícola se vuelve margen","pt":"Balanço agrícola vira margem"},"currentTrigger":{"en":"Argentina corn ending stocks changes the monthly feed and supply read","es":"Argentina existencias finales de maiz cambia la lectura mensual de alimento y oferta","pt":"Argentina estoques finais de milho muda a leitura mensal de racao e oferta"},"triggerDetail":{"en":"3.5 million tonnes in the May 2026 WASDE for 2026/27; -7.9% versus 2025/26. This is the official monthly bridge from crop/feed balance to cattle, milk, and sale timing.","es":"3.5 millones de toneladas en el WASDE May 2026 para 2026/27; -7.9% versus 2025/26. Es el puente mensual oficial entre balance de alimento, ganado, leche y momento de venta.","pt":"3.5 milhoes de toneladas no WASDE May 2026 para 2026/27; -7.9% versus 2025/26. E a ponte mensal oficial entre balanco de racao, gado, leite e venda."},"historicalPattern":{"en":"Acreage and crop condition lead production; production leads feed price; feed price leads cattle and milk margins.","es":"Área y condición del cultivo adelantan producción; producción adelanta alimento; alimento adelanta márgenes ganaderos y lecheros.","pt":"Área e condição da cultura antecipam produção; produção antecipa ração; ração antecipa margens pecuárias e leiteiras."},"leadingSignals":[{"en":"Acreage, crop progress, and soil moisture shift together","es":"Área, avance y humedad cambian juntos","pt":"Área, progresso e umidade mudam juntos"},{"en":"Balance-sheet revisions tighten ending stocks","es":"Revisiones reducen stocks finales","pt":"Revisões reduzem estoques finais"},{"en":"Rail, freight, or port pressure widens local basis","es":"Tren, flete o puerto abre base local","pt":"Trem, frete ou porto abre base local"}],"forwardEffects":[{"en":"Backgrounding and finishing margins compress","es":"Recría y engorde comprimen margen","pt":"Recria e terminação comprimem margem"},{"en":"Dairy ration spend rises before cull flow changes","es":"Dieta lechera sube antes del descarte","pt":"Dieta leiteira sobe antes do descarte"},{"en":"Crop producers may gain price opportunity while livestock producers face cost risk","es":"Agricultores ganan precio mientras ganaderos enfrentan costo","pt":"Agricultores ganham preço enquanto pecuaristas enfrentam custo"}],"producerDecision":{"en":"Put the WASDE revision beside local corn, meal, hay, freight, and weather before buying feed, buying feeders, or holding cattle for more gain.","es":"Poner la revision WASDE junto a maiz local, harina, heno, flete y clima antes de comprar alimento, invernada o retener kilos.","pt":"Colocar a revisao WASDE junto de milho local, farelo, feno, frete e clima antes de comprar racao, recria ou reter peso."},"evidenceIds":["usda-wasde-argentina-corn-stocks-monthly-balance-impact","nasa-power-mato-grosso-rainfall-baseline","faostat-cattle-stocks-latin-america"]},{"id":"forecast-latin-america-heat-load-to-milk-gain","regionId":"latin-america","driverId":"heat-load-to-milk-gain","priority":"act","sectors":["dairy","beef","feed","crops"],"sourceIds":["usda-fas","nasa-power","noaa-cpc","copernicus-cds","brazil-inmet","world-bank-climate"],"sourceNames":["USDA FAS Open Data","NASA POWER","NOAA Climate Prediction Center","Copernicus Climate Data Store","Brazil INMET weather data"],"scenarioIds":["milk-margin-squeeze","feed-cost-spike","drought-shock","crop-yield-shock","heat-stress-milk-loss","water-restriction-shock"],"scenarioNames":[{"en":"Milk margin squeeze","es":"Compresión de margen lechero","pt":"Aperto na margem do leite"},{"en":"Feed cost spike","es":"Salto de costo de alimento","pt":"Alta no custo da ração"},{"en":"Drought tightens forage","es":"Sequía aprieta el forraje","pt":"Seca aperta o pasto"},{"en":"Crop yield shock","es":"Choque de rendimiento agrícola","pt":"Choque de produtividade agrícola"},{"en":"Heat stress cuts milk and gain","es":"Calor reduce leche y ganancia","pt":"Calor corta leite e ganho"}],"lookbackWindow":"7-90 days","forwardWindow":{"en":"1 month to 1 year","es":"1 mes a 1 ano","pt":"1 mes a 1 ano"},"confidence":90,"title":{"en":"Heat load becomes milk and weight-gain drag","es":"Carga de calor reduce leche y ganancia","pt":"Carga térmica vira perda de leite e ganho"},"currentTrigger":{"en":"Argentina PSD fluid milk and dairy cow supply updates the long-cycle supply read","es":"Argentina PSD leche fluida y vacas lecheras actualiza la lectura de oferta de ciclo largo","pt":"Argentina PSD leite fluido e vacas leiteiras atualiza a leitura de oferta de ciclo longo"},"triggerDetail":{"en":"11,950 thousand mt in USDA FAS PSD for Argentina. The balance sheet is +4.0% versus 2025, so read it against local prices instead of treating daily headlines as isolated events.","es":"11,950 miles de t en USDA FAS PSD para Argentina. El balance es +4.0% versus 2025; leerlo contra precios locales en vez de tratar titulares diarios como eventos aislados.","pt":"11,950 mil t no USDA FAS PSD para Argentina. O balanco e +4.0% versus 2025; leia contra precos locais em vez de tratar manchetes diarias como eventos isolados."},"historicalPattern":{"en":"Heat and humidity affect intake first, then milk, weight gain, conception, and sale timing.","es":"Calor y humedad afectan consumo primero, luego leche, ganancia, preñez y ventas.","pt":"Calor e umidade afetam consumo primeiro, depois leite, ganho, prenhez e venda."},"leadingSignals":[{"en":"Temperature-humidity pressure rises for multiple days","es":"Presión temperatura-humedad sube varios días","pt":"Pressão temperatura-umidade sobe por vários dias"},{"en":"Water demand and night cooling fail to reset","es":"Demanda de agua y noche no se recuperan","pt":"Demanda de água e noite não resetam"},{"en":"Feed intake falls before production reports update","es":"Consumo cae antes del reporte productivo","pt":"Consumo cai antes do relatório produtivo"}],"forwardEffects":[{"en":"Milk output and components weaken","es":"Leche y sólidos se debilitan","pt":"Leite e sólidos enfraquecem"},{"en":"Finishing cattle gain less efficiently","es":"Ganado de engorde gana menos eficientemente","pt":"Gado terminado ganha com menor eficiência"},{"en":"Water, shade, and ration timing become margin controls","es":"Agua, sombra y dieta controlan margen","pt":"Água, sombra e dieta controlam margem"}],"producerDecision":{"en":"Put the PSD milk read beside feed cost, heat, and local milk price before changing cull timing or expansion plans.","es":"Poner PSD leche junto a alimento, calor y precio local antes de cambiar descarte o expansion.","pt":"Colocar PSD leite junto de custo de racao, calor e preco local antes de mudar descarte ou expansao."},"evidenceIds":["fas-psd-ar-milk-fluid-balance-sheet-impact","nasa-power-mato-grosso-rainfall-baseline","nasa-power-mato-grosso"]},{"id":"forecast-latin-america-dairy-margin-to-beef-supply","regionId":"latin-america","driverId":"dairy-margin-to-beef-supply","priority":"act","sectors":["dairy","beef","feed"],"sourceIds":["gdt-events","brazil-bcb-sgs","world-bank-pink-sheet","eu-milk","usda-ers-dairy","usda-ams","mexico-siap","ibge-sidra","gdelt-global-news"],"sourceNames":["Global Dairy Trade","Banco Central do Brasil SGS","World Bank commodity prices","EU Milk Market Observatory","USDA ERS dairy data"],"scenarioIds":["milk-margin-squeeze","feed-cost-spike","export-disruption","fertilizer-energy-squeeze","drought-shock","credit-interest-squeeze","port-freight-shock","geopolitical-shipping-shock"],"scenarioNames":[{"en":"Milk margin squeeze","es":"Compresión de margen lechero","pt":"Aperto na margem do leite"},{"en":"Feed cost spike","es":"Salto de costo de alimento","pt":"Alta no custo da ração"},{"en":"Export or border disruption","es":"Interrupción de exportación","pt":"Interrupção de exportação"},{"en":"Fertilizer and energy squeeze","es":"Presión de fertilizante y energía","pt":"Aperto de fertilizante e energia"},{"en":"Drought tightens forage","es":"Sequía aprieta el forraje","pt":"Seca aperta o pasto"}],"lookbackWindow":"4-26 weeks","forwardWindow":{"en":"Same event to 8 weeks","es":"mismo evento a 8 semanas","pt":"mesmo evento a 8 semanas"},"confidence":89,"title":{"en":"Dairy margins become beef supply","es":"Margen lechero se vuelve carne","pt":"Margem do leite vira carne"},"currentTrigger":{"en":"Latin America GDT Skimmilk Powders changes dairy margin pressure","es":"Latin America GDT Skimmilk Powders cambia la presion de margen lechero","pt":"Latin America GDT Skimmilk Powders muda a pressao de margem do leite"},"triggerDetail":{"en":"3,457 $/mt in the latest Global Dairy Trade public results. The event-to-event index move is -3.0%.","es":"3,457 USD/t en los resultados publicos recientes de Global Dairy Trade. El cambio entre eventos es -3.0%.","pt":"3,457 USD/t nos resultados publicos recentes da Global Dairy Trade. A mudanca entre eventos e -3.0%."},"historicalPattern":{"en":"Milk price and feed cost hit dairy margins before cull cow flow and beef supply respond.","es":"Precio de leche y alimento golpean el margen antes de que cambien descarte y oferta de carne.","pt":"Preço do leite e ração atingem a margem antes de mudar descarte e oferta de carne."},"leadingSignals":[{"en":"Milk-feed spread narrows","es":"Diferencial leche-alimento se achica","pt":"Spread leite-ração diminui"},{"en":"Dairy auction prices weaken","es":"Subastas lácteas bajan","pt":"Leilões lácteos caem"},{"en":"Feed and energy prices rise together","es":"Alimento y energía suben juntos","pt":"Ração e energia sobem juntas"}],"forwardEffects":[{"en":"Cull cows enter beef supply","es":"Vacas de descarte entran a carne","pt":"Vacas de descarte entram na carne"},{"en":"Replacement appetite weakens","es":"Apetito de reposición baja","pt":"Apetite de reposição cai"},{"en":"Milk output can fall after ration cuts","es":"La leche puede caer tras recortes de dieta","pt":"Leite pode cair após corte de dieta"}],"producerDecision":{"en":"Stress-test the milk check against delivered feed before adding ration cost, delaying culls, or keeping marginal cows another cycle.","es":"Probar el pago de leche contra alimento entregado antes de sumar racion, demorar descarte o mantener vacas marginales otro ciclo.","pt":"Teste o pagamento do leite contra racao entregue antes de aumentar dieta, atrasar descarte ou manter vacas marginais outro ciclo."},"evidenceIds":["gdt-events-latin-america-smp-dairy-margin-impact","bcb-usd-brl-30d-baseline","world-bank-fx-export-cost"]},{"id":"forecast-latin-america-geopolitical-shock-to-feed-freight","regionId":"latin-america","driverId":"geopolitical-shock-to-feed-freight","priority":"act","sectors":["beef","dairy","feed","crops"],"sourceIds":["world-bank-pink-sheet","gdelt-global-news","reliefweb-agriculture","fao-giews","suez-canal-authority","panama-canal-authority","baltic-exchange","eia-fuel","un-comtrade","usda-oce-port-grain"],"sourceNames":["World Bank commodity prices","GDELT global event monitor","ReliefWeb agriculture and disaster reports","FAO GIEWS country briefs","Suez Canal Authority traffic statistics"],"scenarioIds":["fertilizer-energy-squeeze","feed-cost-spike","crop-yield-shock","drought-shock","export-disruption","milk-margin-squeeze","credit-interest-squeeze","port-freight-shock"],"scenarioNames":[{"en":"Fertilizer and energy squeeze","es":"Presión de fertilizante y energía","pt":"Aperto de fertilizante e energia"},{"en":"Feed cost spike","es":"Salto de costo de alimento","pt":"Alta no custo da ração"},{"en":"Crop yield shock","es":"Choque de rendimiento agrícola","pt":"Choque de produtividade agrícola"},{"en":"Drought tightens forage","es":"Sequía aprieta el forraje","pt":"Seca aperta o pasto"},{"en":"Export or border disruption","es":"Interrupción de exportación","pt":"Interrupção de exportação"}],"lookbackWindow":"Same day to 3 years","forwardWindow":{"en":"Same month to 6 months","es":"mismo mes a 6 meses","pt":"mesmo mês a 6 meses"},"confidence":84,"title":{"en":"Geopolitical shocks become feed, freight, and basis risk","es":"Choques geopolíticos se vuelven riesgo de alimento, flete y base","pt":"Choques geopolíticos viram risco de ração, frete e base"},"currentTrigger":{"en":"Latin America Global Brent crude oil price is moving the margin stack","es":"Precio global de petróleo Brent en América Latina mueve la pila de margen","pt":"Preço global do petróleo Brent em América Latina move a pilha de margem"},"triggerDetail":{"en":"107.5 $/bbl in the latest World Bank commodity sheet. Read this against pasture input, fertilizer, diesel, freight, and working capital.","es":"107.5 USD/bbl en la hoja reciente de commodities del Banco Mundial. Leerlo contra insumos de pasto, fertilizante, diésel, flete y capital de trabajo.","pt":"107.5 USD/bbl na planilha recente de commodities do Banco Mundial. Leia contra insumos de pasto, fertilizante, diesel, frete e capital de giro."},"historicalPattern":{"en":"Conflict, sanctions, or shipping-route stress can move fuel, fertilizer, grain, and freight before farmgate cattle or milk prices adjust.","es":"Conflicto, sanciones o rutas marítimas pueden mover combustible, fertilizante, grano y flete antes del precio rural.","pt":"Conflito, sanções ou rotas marítimas podem mover combustível, fertilizante, grão e frete antes do preço rural."},"leadingSignals":[{"en":"Red Sea, Black Sea, canal, port, or border headlines mention grain, fertilizer, fuel, or livestock routes","es":"Titulares de Mar Rojo, Mar Negro, canales, puertos o frontera mencionan granos, fertilizante, combustible o ganado","pt":"Manchetes de Mar Vermelho, Mar Negro, canais, portos ou fronteira mencionam grãos, fertilizante, combustível ou gado"},{"en":"Freight, fuel, fertilizer, or grain indexes move before delivered feed quotes reset","es":"Flete, combustible, fertilizante o granos se mueven antes del alimento entregado","pt":"Frete, combustível, fertilizante ou grãos se movem antes da ração entregue"},{"en":"Destination or route risk weakens the translation from global price to local bid","es":"Riesgo de destino o ruta debilita la traducción de precio global a oferta local","pt":"Risco de destino ou rota enfraquece a tradução de preço global em preço local"}],"forwardEffects":[{"en":"Delivered feed and fertilizer become more expensive or less reliable","es":"Alimento y fertilizante entregados se encarecen o pierden confiabilidad","pt":"Ração e fertilizante entregues ficam mais caros ou menos confiáveis"},{"en":"Local basis can diverge from headline futures or export values","es":"La base local puede separarse de futuros o valores exportadores","pt":"A base local pode se separar de futuros ou valores de exportação"},{"en":"Local feed substitution, earlier sale timing, or destination hedging becomes valuable","es":"Sustitución local, venta más temprana o cobertura de destino gana valor","pt":"Substituição local, venda antecipada ou hedge de destino ganha valor"}],"producerDecision":{"en":"Reprice the next gain period, forage plan, and delivered-feed bill before buying inputs or holding cattle longer.","es":"Recalcular próximo período de ganancia, forraje y alimento entregado antes de comprar insumos o retener ganado.","pt":"Recalcule próximo período de ganho, forragem e ração entregue antes de comprar insumos ou reter gado."},"evidenceIds":["world-bank-pink-sheet-crude-oil-latin-america-commodity-margin-impact","world-bank-fx-export-cost"]},{"id":"forecast-latin-america-credit-cost-to-retention","regionId":"latin-america","driverId":"credit-cost-to-retention","priority":"act","sectors":["beef","dairy","feed","crops"],"sourceIds":["brazil-bcb-sgs","world-bank-wdi","fred-ag-macro","imf-ifs","bls-ag-inputs"],"sourceNames":["Banco Central do Brasil SGS","World Bank World Development Indicators","FRED agriculture macro series","IMF International Financial Statistics","U.S. BLS farm input prices"],"scenarioIds":["export-disruption","fertilizer-energy-squeeze","credit-interest-squeeze"],"scenarioNames":[{"en":"Export or border disruption","es":"Interrupción de exportación","pt":"Interrupção de exportação"},{"en":"Fertilizer and energy squeeze","es":"Presión de fertilizante y energía","pt":"Aperto de fertilizante e energia"},{"en":"Credit and interest squeeze","es":"Presión de crédito e intereses","pt":"Aperto de crédito e juros"}],"lookbackWindow":"30 days to 5 years","forwardWindow":{"en":"Same day to 4 weeks","es":"mismo día a 4 semanas","pt":"mesmo dia a 4 semanas"},"confidence":83,"title":{"en":"Credit cost changes retention and input timing","es":"Costo de crédito cambia retención e insumos","pt":"Custo de crédito muda retenção e insumos"},"currentTrigger":{"en":"USD/BRL changes the cattle bid and the input bill at the same time","es":"USD/BRL cambia la oferta ganadera y la cuenta de insumos a la vez","pt":"USD/BRL muda o preço do boi e a conta de insumos ao mesmo tempo"},"triggerDetail":{"en":"Latest Banco Central reading is 5.1244 BRL/USD. A weaker real can help export bids while making feed, fertilizer, fuel, and equipment dearer.","es":"La lectura reciente del Banco Central es 5.1244 BRL/USD. Un real más débil puede apoyar exportación y encarecer alimento, fertilizante, combustible y equipo.","pt":"A leitura recente do Banco Central é 5.1244 BRL/USD. Real mais fraco pode apoiar exportação e encarecer ração, fertilizante, combustível e equipamento."},"historicalPattern":{"en":"Interest and credit changes hit input prepay and replacements before they show up in herd-size data.","es":"Interés y crédito golpean insumos y reposición antes de aparecer en el tamaño del hato.","pt":"Juros e crédito atingem insumos e reposição antes de aparecer no tamanho do rebanho."},"leadingSignals":[{"en":"Policy rates, farm credit, or inflation move together","es":"Tasas, crédito rural o inflación se mueven juntos","pt":"Juros, crédito rural ou inflação se movem juntos"},{"en":"Replacement purchases slow even when cattle prices look attractive","es":"Reposición se frena aunque el precio parezca atractivo","pt":"Reposição freia mesmo com preço atrativo"},{"en":"Input prepay windows get shorter","es":"Ventanas de prepago de insumos se acortan","pt":"Janelas de pré-pagamento de insumos encurtam"}],"forwardEffects":[{"en":"Retained ownership becomes harder to finance","es":"Propiedad retenida se vuelve más difícil","pt":"Propriedade retida fica mais difícil"},{"en":"Crop input timing can shift acreage and feed supply","es":"Insumos cambian área y oferta de alimento","pt":"Insumos mudam área e oferta de ração"},{"en":"Dairy ration and replacement choices tighten","es":"Dieta y reposición lechera se ajustan","pt":"Dieta e reposição leiteira apertam"}],"producerDecision":{"en":"Do the sale-timing math twice: once in local currency and once in dollar-linked input/export terms.","es":"Hacer la cuenta de venta dos veces: moneda local y términos vinculados a dólar para insumos/exportación.","pt":"Fazer a conta de venda duas vezes: moeda local e termos ligados ao dólar para insumos/exportação."},"evidenceIds":["bcb-usd-brl-export-input-impact","bcb-usd-brl-30d-baseline","world-bank-wdi-livestock_production_index-latin-america"]}]},{"regionId":"oceania","regionName":{"en":"Oceania","es":"Oceanía","pt":"Oceania"},"pathwayCount":7,"actNowCount":6,"watchCount":1,"opportunityCount":0,"pathways":[{"id":"forecast-oceania-pasture-stress-to-sale-runs","regionId":"oceania","driverId":"pasture-stress-to-sale-runs","priority":"act","sectors":["beef","dairy","feed","crops"],"sourceIds":["usda-fas","nasa-power","us-drought-monitor","copernicus-cds","bom-climate","brazil-inmet","mexico-siap","gdelt-global-news"],"sourceNames":["USDA FAS Open Data","NASA POWER","U.S. Drought Monitor","Copernicus Climate Data Store","Australian Bureau of Meteorology"],"scenarioIds":["drought-shock","feed-cost-spike","crop-yield-shock","export-disruption","milk-margin-squeeze","fertilizer-energy-squeeze","credit-interest-squeeze","port-freight-shock"],"scenarioNames":[{"en":"Drought tightens forage","es":"Sequía aprieta el forraje","pt":"Seca aperta o pasto"},{"en":"Feed cost spike","es":"Salto de costo de alimento","pt":"Alta no custo da ração"},{"en":"Crop yield shock","es":"Choque de rendimiento agrícola","pt":"Choque de produtividade agrícola"},{"en":"Export or border disruption","es":"Interrupción de exportación","pt":"Interrupção de exportação"},{"en":"Milk margin squeeze","es":"Compresión de margen lechero","pt":"Aperto na margem do leite"}],"lookbackWindow":"30-120 days","forwardWindow":{"en":"1 month to 1 year","es":"1 mes a 1 ano","pt":"1 mes a 1 ano"},"confidence":90,"title":{"en":"Pasture stress becomes sale pressure","es":"Estrés de pasto se vuelve venta","pt":"Estresse de pasto vira venda"},"currentTrigger":{"en":"New Zealand PSD cattle herd and slaughter updates the long-cycle supply read","es":"Nueva Zelanda PSD hato y faena bovina actualiza la lectura de oferta de ciclo largo","pt":"Nova Zelândia PSD rebanho e abate bovino atualiza a leitura de oferta de ciclo longo"},"triggerDetail":{"en":"10,070 thousand head in USDA FAS PSD for New Zealand. The balance sheet is +2.3% versus 2025, so read it against local prices instead of treating daily headlines as isolated events.","es":"10,070 thousand head en USDA FAS PSD para New Zealand. El balance es +2.3% versus 2025; leerlo contra precios locales en vez de tratar titulares diarios como eventos aislados.","pt":"10,070 thousand head no USDA FAS PSD para New Zealand. O balanco e +2.3% versus 2025; leia contra precos locais em vez de tratar manchetes diarias como eventos isolados."},"historicalPattern":{"en":"Pasture stress usually hits feed buying first, sale runs second, and replacement prices last.","es":"El estrés de pasto suele mover primero la compra de alimento, luego las ventas y al final la reposición.","pt":"O estresse de pasto costuma mover primeiro a compra de ração, depois as vendas e por fim a reposição."},"leadingSignals":[{"en":"Soil moisture drops below seasonal median","es":"Humedad de suelo cae bajo la mediana","pt":"Umidade do solo cai abaixo da mediana"},{"en":"Pasture condition ratings deteriorate","es":"Condición de pasto se deteriora","pt":"Condição do pasto piora"},{"en":"Hay and supplement quotes firm before auction volume rises","es":"Heno y suplemento suben antes del remate","pt":"Feno e suplemento sobem antes do leilão"}],"forwardEffects":[{"en":"More calves and cull cows move earlier","es":"Más terneros y descartes salen antes","pt":"Mais bezerros e descartes saem antes"},{"en":"Replacement animals face discount risk in dry regions","es":"Reposición tiene riesgo de descuento en zonas secas","pt":"Reposição tem risco de desconto em zonas secas"},{"en":"Feed cost can erase the value of extra gain","es":"El alimento borra el valor de más ganancia","pt":"Ração apaga o valor de mais ganho"}],"producerDecision":{"en":"Use the PSD herd balance before retaining replacements, buying feeders, or assuming local supply will stay loose or tight.","es":"Usar el balance PSD del hato antes de retener reposicion, comprar invernada o asumir oferta local floja o ajustada.","pt":"Usar o balanco PSD do rebanho antes de reter reposicao, comprar recria ou assumir oferta local frouxa ou apertada."},"evidenceIds":["fas-psd-nz-cattle-balance-sheet-impact","nasa-power-queensland-rainfall-baseline","nasa-power-queensland"]},{"id":"forecast-oceania-export-pull-to-local-basis","regionId":"oceania","driverId":"export-pull-to-local-basis","priority":"act","sectors":["beef","dairy","feed","crops"],"sourceIds":["usda-fas","usda-esr","un-comtrade","brazil-mapa-agrostat","comex-stat","mexico-siap","brazil-bcb-sgs","gdelt-global-news"],"sourceNames":["USDA FAS Open Data","USDA Export Sales Reporting","UN Comtrade","Brazil MAPA Agrostat","Brazil Comex Stat"],"scenarioIds":["drought-shock","feed-cost-spike","export-disruption","milk-margin-squeeze","crop-yield-shock","fertilizer-energy-squeeze","credit-interest-squeeze","port-freight-shock"],"scenarioNames":[{"en":"Drought tightens forage","es":"Sequía aprieta el forraje","pt":"Seca aperta o pasto"},{"en":"Feed cost spike","es":"Salto de costo de alimento","pt":"Alta no custo da ração"},{"en":"Export or border disruption","es":"Interrupción de exportación","pt":"Interrupção de exportação"},{"en":"Milk margin squeeze","es":"Compresión de margen lechero","pt":"Aperto na margem do leite"},{"en":"Crop yield shock","es":"Choque de rendimiento agrícola","pt":"Choque de produtividade agrícola"}],"lookbackWindow":"4-52 weeks","forwardWindow":{"en":"1 month to 1 year","es":"1 mes a 1 ano","pt":"1 mes a 1 ano"},"confidence":90,"title":{"en":"Export pull changes local basis","es":"Exportación cambia la base local","pt":"Exportação muda a base local"},"currentTrigger":{"en":"New Zealand PSD cattle herd and slaughter updates the long-cycle supply read","es":"Nueva Zelanda PSD hato y faena bovina actualiza la lectura de oferta de ciclo largo","pt":"Nova Zelândia PSD rebanho e abate bovino atualiza a leitura de oferta de ciclo longo"},"triggerDetail":{"en":"10,070 thousand head in USDA FAS PSD for New Zealand. The balance sheet is +2.3% versus 2025, so read it against local prices instead of treating daily headlines as isolated events.","es":"10,070 thousand head en USDA FAS PSD para New Zealand. El balance es +2.3% versus 2025; leerlo contra precios locales en vez de tratar titulares diarios como eventos aislados.","pt":"10,070 thousand head no USDA FAS PSD para New Zealand. O balanco e +2.3% versus 2025; leia contra precos locais em vez de tratar manchetes diarias como eventos isolados."},"historicalPattern":{"en":"Export sales lead shipments; shipments lead customs totals; customs totals confirm structural demand.","es":"Las ventas de exportación adelantan embarques; los embarques adelantan aduana; aduana confirma demanda estructural.","pt":"Vendas de exportação antecipam embarques; embarques antecipam aduana; aduana confirma demanda estrutural."},"leadingSignals":[{"en":"Weekly sales or attaché reports change before monthly trade files","es":"Ventas semanales o reportes cambian antes de comercio mensual","pt":"Vendas semanais ou relatórios mudam antes do comércio mensal"},{"en":"Destination concentration rises","es":"Concentración de destino sube","pt":"Concentração de destino sobe"},{"en":"Currency makes local supply cheaper or dearer to importers","es":"El cambio abarata o encarece oferta local","pt":"Câmbio barateia ou encarece oferta local"}],"forwardEffects":[{"en":"Processor bids widen or narrow by export access","es":"Frigoríficos ajustan ofertas por exportación","pt":"Frigoríficos ajustam ofertas por exportação"},{"en":"Feed and crop basis shifts around ports and corridors","es":"Base de grano cambia en puertos y corredores","pt":"Base de grãos muda em portos e corredores"},{"en":"Sanitary or border events can erase the signal quickly","es":"Sanidad o frontera puede borrar la señal rápido","pt":"Sanidade ou fronteira pode apagar o sinal rápido"}],"producerDecision":{"en":"Use the PSD herd balance before retaining replacements, buying feeders, or assuming local supply will stay loose or tight.","es":"Usar el balance PSD del hato antes de retener reposicion, comprar invernada o asumir oferta local floja o ajustada.","pt":"Usar o balanco PSD do rebanho antes de reter reposicao, comprar recria ou assumir oferta local frouxa ou apertada."},"evidenceIds":["fas-psd-nz-cattle-balance-sheet-impact","fas-psd-as-beef"]},{"id":"forecast-oceania-crop-balance-to-feed-margin","regionId":"oceania","driverId":"crop-balance-to-feed-margin","priority":"act","sectors":["feed","crops","beef","dairy"],"sourceIds":["usda-wasde","nasa-power","faostat","usda-nass","usda-ers-feed-grains","conab","comex-stat","mexico-siap","gdelt-global-news"],"sourceNames":["USDA WASDE historical data","NASA POWER","FAOSTAT","USDA NASS QuickStats and ESMIS reports","USDA ERS Feed Grains Database"],"scenarioIds":["feed-cost-spike","crop-yield-shock","drought-shock","export-disruption","milk-margin-squeeze","fertilizer-energy-squeeze","credit-interest-squeeze","port-freight-shock"],"scenarioNames":[{"en":"Feed cost spike","es":"Salto de costo de alimento","pt":"Alta no custo da ração"},{"en":"Crop yield shock","es":"Choque de rendimiento agrícola","pt":"Choque de produtividade agrícola"},{"en":"Drought tightens forage","es":"Sequía aprieta el forraje","pt":"Seca aperta o pasto"},{"en":"Export or border disruption","es":"Interrupción de exportación","pt":"Interrupção de exportação"},{"en":"Milk margin squeeze","es":"Compresión de margen lechero","pt":"Aperto na margem do leite"}],"lookbackWindow":"90 days to 5 years","forwardWindow":{"en":"1 month to 1 year","es":"1 mes a 1 ano","pt":"1 mes a 1 ano"},"confidence":90,"title":{"en":"Crop balance becomes feed margin","es":"Balance agrícola se vuelve margen","pt":"Balanço agrícola vira margem"},"currentTrigger":{"en":"Australia wheat production changes the monthly feed and supply read","es":"Produccion de trigo Australia cambia la lectura mensual de alimento y oferta","pt":"Producao de trigo Australia muda a leitura mensal de racao e oferta"},"triggerDetail":{"en":"30 million tonnes in the May 2026 WASDE for 2026/27; -16.7% versus 2025/26. This is the official monthly bridge from crop/feed balance to cattle, milk, and sale timing.","es":"30 millones de toneladas en el WASDE May 2026 para 2026/27; -16.7% versus 2025/26. Es el puente mensual oficial entre balance de alimento, ganado, leche y momento de venta.","pt":"30 milhoes de toneladas no WASDE May 2026 para 2026/27; -16.7% versus 2025/26. E a ponte mensal oficial entre balanco de racao, gado, leite e venda."},"historicalPattern":{"en":"Acreage and crop condition lead production; production leads feed price; feed price leads cattle and milk margins.","es":"Área y condición del cultivo adelantan producción; producción adelanta alimento; alimento adelanta márgenes ganaderos y lecheros.","pt":"Área e condição da cultura antecipam produção; produção antecipa ração; ração antecipa margens pecuárias e leiteiras."},"leadingSignals":[{"en":"Acreage, crop progress, and soil moisture shift together","es":"Área, avance y humedad cambian juntos","pt":"Área, progresso e umidade mudam juntos"},{"en":"Balance-sheet revisions tighten ending stocks","es":"Revisiones reducen stocks finales","pt":"Revisões reduzem estoques finais"},{"en":"Rail, freight, or port pressure widens local basis","es":"Tren, flete o puerto abre base local","pt":"Trem, frete ou porto abre base local"}],"forwardEffects":[{"en":"Backgrounding and finishing margins compress","es":"Recría y engorde comprimen margen","pt":"Recria e terminação comprimem margem"},{"en":"Dairy ration spend rises before cull flow changes","es":"Dieta lechera sube antes del descarte","pt":"Dieta leiteira sobe antes do descarte"},{"en":"Crop producers may gain price opportunity while livestock producers face cost risk","es":"Agricultores ganan precio mientras ganaderos enfrentan costo","pt":"Agricultores ganham preço enquanto pecuaristas enfrentam custo"}],"producerDecision":{"en":"Put the WASDE revision beside local corn, meal, hay, freight, and weather before buying feed, buying feeders, or holding cattle for more gain.","es":"Poner la revision WASDE junto a maiz local, harina, heno, flete y clima antes de comprar alimento, invernada o retener kilos.","pt":"Colocar a revisao WASDE junto de milho local, farelo, feno, frete e clima antes de comprar racao, recria ou reter peso."},"evidenceIds":["usda-wasde-australia-wheat-production-monthly-balance-impact","nasa-power-queensland-rainfall-baseline","faostat-cattle-stocks-oceania"]},{"id":"forecast-oceania-dairy-margin-to-beef-supply","regionId":"oceania","driverId":"dairy-margin-to-beef-supply","priority":"act","sectors":["dairy","beef","feed"],"sourceIds":["gdt-events","world-bank-pink-sheet","eu-milk","usda-ers-dairy","usda-ams","mexico-siap","ibge-sidra","brazil-bcb-sgs","gdelt-global-news"],"sourceNames":["Global Dairy Trade","World Bank commodity prices","EU Milk Market Observatory","USDA ERS dairy data","USDA AMS MyMarketNews"],"scenarioIds":["milk-margin-squeeze","feed-cost-spike","drought-shock","export-disruption","credit-interest-squeeze","port-freight-shock","geopolitical-shipping-shock"],"scenarioNames":[{"en":"Milk margin squeeze","es":"Compresión de margen lechero","pt":"Aperto na margem do leite"},{"en":"Feed cost spike","es":"Salto de costo de alimento","pt":"Alta no custo da ração"},{"en":"Drought tightens forage","es":"Sequía aprieta el forraje","pt":"Seca aperta o pasto"},{"en":"Export or border disruption","es":"Interrupción de exportación","pt":"Interrupção de exportação"},{"en":"Credit and interest squeeze","es":"Presión de crédito e intereses","pt":"Aperto de crédito e juros"}],"lookbackWindow":"4-26 weeks","forwardWindow":{"en":"Same event to 8 weeks","es":"mismo evento a 8 semanas","pt":"mesmo evento a 8 semanas"},"confidence":89,"title":{"en":"Dairy margins become beef supply","es":"Margen lechero se vuelve carne","pt":"Margem do leite vira carne"},"currentTrigger":{"en":"Oceania GDT Skimmilk Powders changes dairy margin pressure","es":"Oceania GDT Skimmilk Powders cambia la presion de margen lechero","pt":"Oceania GDT Skimmilk Powders muda a pressao de margem do leite"},"triggerDetail":{"en":"3,457 $/mt in the latest Global Dairy Trade public results. The event-to-event index move is -3.0%.","es":"3,457 USD/t en los resultados publicos recientes de Global Dairy Trade. El cambio entre eventos es -3.0%.","pt":"3,457 USD/t nos resultados publicos recentes da Global Dairy Trade. A mudanca entre eventos e -3.0%."},"historicalPattern":{"en":"Milk price and feed cost hit dairy margins before cull cow flow and beef supply respond.","es":"Precio de leche y alimento golpean el margen antes de que cambien descarte y oferta de carne.","pt":"Preço do leite e ração atingem a margem antes de mudar descarte e oferta de carne."},"leadingSignals":[{"en":"Milk-feed spread narrows","es":"Diferencial leche-alimento se achica","pt":"Spread leite-ração diminui"},{"en":"Dairy auction prices weaken","es":"Subastas lácteas bajan","pt":"Leilões lácteos caem"},{"en":"Feed and energy prices rise together","es":"Alimento y energía suben juntos","pt":"Ração e energia sobem juntas"}],"forwardEffects":[{"en":"Cull cows enter beef supply","es":"Vacas de descarte entran a carne","pt":"Vacas de descarte entram na carne"},{"en":"Replacement appetite weakens","es":"Apetito de reposición baja","pt":"Apetite de reposição cai"},{"en":"Milk output can fall after ration cuts","es":"La leche puede caer tras recortes de dieta","pt":"Leite pode cair após corte de dieta"}],"producerDecision":{"en":"Stress-test the milk check against delivered feed before adding ration cost, delaying culls, or keeping marginal cows another cycle.","es":"Probar el pago de leche contra alimento entregado antes de sumar racion, demorar descarte o mantener vacas marginales otro ciclo.","pt":"Teste o pagamento do leite contra racao entregue antes de aumentar dieta, atrasar descarte ou manter vacas marginais outro ciclo."},"evidenceIds":["gdt-events-oceania-smp-dairy-margin-impact","world-bank-pink-sheet-beef-oceania"]},{"id":"forecast-oceania-heat-load-to-milk-gain","regionId":"oceania","driverId":"heat-load-to-milk-gain","priority":"act","sectors":["dairy","beef","feed","crops"],"sourceIds":["usda-fas","nasa-power","noaa-cpc","copernicus-cds","brazil-inmet","world-bank-climate"],"sourceNames":["USDA FAS Open Data","NASA POWER","NOAA Climate Prediction Center","Copernicus Climate Data Store","Brazil INMET weather data"],"scenarioIds":["milk-margin-squeeze","feed-cost-spike","drought-shock","crop-yield-shock","heat-stress-milk-loss","water-restriction-shock"],"scenarioNames":[{"en":"Milk margin squeeze","es":"Compresión de margen lechero","pt":"Aperto na margem do leite"},{"en":"Feed cost spike","es":"Salto de costo de alimento","pt":"Alta no custo da ração"},{"en":"Drought tightens forage","es":"Sequía aprieta el forraje","pt":"Seca aperta o pasto"},{"en":"Crop yield shock","es":"Choque de rendimiento agrícola","pt":"Choque de produtividade agrícola"},{"en":"Heat stress cuts milk and gain","es":"Calor reduce leche y ganancia","pt":"Calor corta leite e ganho"}],"lookbackWindow":"7-90 days","forwardWindow":{"en":"1 month to 1 year","es":"1 mes a 1 ano","pt":"1 mes a 1 ano"},"confidence":87,"title":{"en":"Heat load becomes milk and weight-gain drag","es":"Carga de calor reduce leche y ganancia","pt":"Carga térmica vira perda de leite e ganho"},"currentTrigger":{"en":"Australia PSD fluid milk and dairy cow supply updates the long-cycle supply read","es":"Australia PSD leche fluida y vacas lecheras actualiza la lectura de oferta de ciclo largo","pt":"Austrália PSD leite fluido e vacas leiteiras atualiza a leitura de oferta de ciclo longo"},"triggerDetail":{"en":"8,650 thousand mt in USDA FAS PSD for Australia. The balance sheet is +1.8% versus 2025, so read it against local prices instead of treating daily headlines as isolated events.","es":"8,650 miles de t en USDA FAS PSD para Australia. El balance es +1.8% versus 2025; leerlo contra precios locales en vez de tratar titulares diarios como eventos aislados.","pt":"8,650 mil t no USDA FAS PSD para Australia. O balanco e +1.8% versus 2025; leia contra precos locais em vez de tratar manchetes diarias como eventos isolados."},"historicalPattern":{"en":"Heat and humidity affect intake first, then milk, weight gain, conception, and sale timing.","es":"Calor y humedad afectan consumo primero, luego leche, ganancia, preñez y ventas.","pt":"Calor e umidade afetam consumo primeiro, depois leite, ganho, prenhez e venda."},"leadingSignals":[{"en":"Temperature-humidity pressure rises for multiple days","es":"Presión temperatura-humedad sube varios días","pt":"Pressão temperatura-umidade sobe por vários dias"},{"en":"Water demand and night cooling fail to reset","es":"Demanda de agua y noche no se recuperan","pt":"Demanda de água e noite não resetam"},{"en":"Feed intake falls before production reports update","es":"Consumo cae antes del reporte productivo","pt":"Consumo cai antes do relatório produtivo"}],"forwardEffects":[{"en":"Milk output and components weaken","es":"Leche y sólidos se debilitan","pt":"Leite e sólidos enfraquecem"},{"en":"Finishing cattle gain less efficiently","es":"Ganado de engorde gana menos eficientemente","pt":"Gado terminado ganha com menor eficiência"},{"en":"Water, shade, and ration timing become margin controls","es":"Agua, sombra y dieta controlan margen","pt":"Água, sombra e dieta controlam margem"}],"producerDecision":{"en":"Put the PSD milk read beside feed cost, heat, and local milk price before changing cull timing or expansion plans.","es":"Poner PSD leche junto a alimento, calor y precio local antes de cambiar descarte o expansion.","pt":"Colocar PSD leite junto de custo de racao, calor e preco local antes de mudar descarte ou expansao."},"evidenceIds":["fas-psd-as-milk-fluid-balance-sheet-impact","nasa-power-queensland-rainfall-baseline","nasa-power-queensland"]},{"id":"forecast-oceania-geopolitical-shock-to-feed-freight","regionId":"oceania","driverId":"geopolitical-shock-to-feed-freight","priority":"act","sectors":["beef","dairy","feed","crops"],"sourceIds":["world-bank-pink-sheet","gdelt-global-news","reliefweb-agriculture","fao-giews","suez-canal-authority","panama-canal-authority","baltic-exchange","eia-fuel","un-comtrade","usda-oce-port-grain"],"sourceNames":["World Bank commodity prices","GDELT global event monitor","ReliefWeb agriculture and disaster reports","FAO GIEWS country briefs","Suez Canal Authority traffic statistics"],"scenarioIds":["fertilizer-energy-squeeze","feed-cost-spike","crop-yield-shock","drought-shock","export-disruption","milk-margin-squeeze","credit-interest-squeeze","port-freight-shock"],"scenarioNames":[{"en":"Fertilizer and energy squeeze","es":"Presión de fertilizante y energía","pt":"Aperto de fertilizante e energia"},{"en":"Feed cost spike","es":"Salto de costo de alimento","pt":"Alta no custo da ração"},{"en":"Crop yield shock","es":"Choque de rendimiento agrícola","pt":"Choque de produtividade agrícola"},{"en":"Drought tightens forage","es":"Sequía aprieta el forraje","pt":"Seca aperta o pasto"},{"en":"Export or border disruption","es":"Interrupción de exportación","pt":"Interrupção de exportação"}],"lookbackWindow":"Same day to 3 years","forwardWindow":{"en":"Same month to 6 months","es":"mismo mes a 6 meses","pt":"mesmo mês a 6 meses"},"confidence":84,"title":{"en":"Geopolitical shocks become feed, freight, and basis risk","es":"Choques geopolíticos se vuelven riesgo de alimento, flete y base","pt":"Choques geopolíticos viram risco de ração, frete e base"},"currentTrigger":{"en":"Oceania Global Brent crude oil price is moving the margin stack","es":"Precio global de petróleo Brent en Oceanía mueve la pila de margen","pt":"Preço global do petróleo Brent em Oceania move a pilha de margem"},"triggerDetail":{"en":"107.5 $/bbl in the latest World Bank commodity sheet. Read this against pasture input, fertilizer, diesel, freight, and working capital.","es":"107.5 USD/bbl en la hoja reciente de commodities del Banco Mundial. Leerlo contra insumos de pasto, fertilizante, diésel, flete y capital de trabajo.","pt":"107.5 USD/bbl na planilha recente de commodities do Banco Mundial. Leia contra insumos de pasto, fertilizante, diesel, frete e capital de giro."},"historicalPattern":{"en":"Conflict, sanctions, or shipping-route stress can move fuel, fertilizer, grain, and freight before farmgate cattle or milk prices adjust.","es":"Conflicto, sanciones o rutas marítimas pueden mover combustible, fertilizante, grano y flete antes del precio rural.","pt":"Conflito, sanções ou rotas marítimas podem mover combustível, fertilizante, grão e frete antes do preço rural."},"leadingSignals":[{"en":"Red Sea, Black Sea, canal, port, or border headlines mention grain, fertilizer, fuel, or livestock routes","es":"Titulares de Mar Rojo, Mar Negro, canales, puertos o frontera mencionan granos, fertilizante, combustible o ganado","pt":"Manchetes de Mar Vermelho, Mar Negro, canais, portos ou fronteira mencionam grãos, fertilizante, combustível ou gado"},{"en":"Freight, fuel, fertilizer, or grain indexes move before delivered feed quotes reset","es":"Flete, combustible, fertilizante o granos se mueven antes del alimento entregado","pt":"Frete, combustível, fertilizante ou grãos se movem antes da ração entregue"},{"en":"Destination or route risk weakens the translation from global price to local bid","es":"Riesgo de destino o ruta debilita la traducción de precio global a oferta local","pt":"Risco de destino ou rota enfraquece a tradução de preço global em preço local"}],"forwardEffects":[{"en":"Delivered feed and fertilizer become more expensive or less reliable","es":"Alimento y fertilizante entregados se encarecen o pierden confiabilidad","pt":"Ração e fertilizante entregues ficam mais caros ou menos confiáveis"},{"en":"Local basis can diverge from headline futures or export values","es":"La base local puede separarse de futuros o valores exportadores","pt":"A base local pode se separar de futuros ou valores de exportação"},{"en":"Local feed substitution, earlier sale timing, or destination hedging becomes valuable","es":"Sustitución local, venta más temprana o cobertura de destino gana valor","pt":"Substituição local, venda antecipada ou hedge de destino ganha valor"}],"producerDecision":{"en":"Reprice the next gain period, forage plan, and delivered-feed bill before buying inputs or holding cattle longer.","es":"Recalcular próximo período de ganancia, forraje y alimento entregado antes de comprar insumos o retener ganado.","pt":"Recalcule próximo período de ganho, forragem e ração entregue antes de comprar insumos ou reter gado."},"evidenceIds":["world-bank-pink-sheet-crude-oil-oceania-commodity-margin-impact","world-bank-pink-sheet-beef-oceania"]},{"id":"forecast-oceania-credit-cost-to-retention","regionId":"oceania","driverId":"credit-cost-to-retention","priority":"watch","sectors":["beef","dairy","feed","crops"],"sourceIds":["world-bank-wdi","fred-ag-macro","imf-ifs","brazil-bcb-sgs","bls-ag-inputs"],"sourceNames":["World Bank World Development Indicators","FRED agriculture macro series","IMF International Financial Statistics","Banco Central do Brasil SGS","U.S. BLS farm input prices"],"scenarioIds":["export-disruption","fertilizer-energy-squeeze","credit-interest-squeeze"],"scenarioNames":[{"en":"Export or border disruption","es":"Interrupción de exportación","pt":"Interrupção de exportação"},{"en":"Fertilizer and energy squeeze","es":"Presión de fertilizante y energía","pt":"Aperto de fertilizante e energia"},{"en":"Credit and interest squeeze","es":"Presión de crédito e intereses","pt":"Aperto de crédito e juros"}],"lookbackWindow":"30 days to 5 years","forwardWindow":{"en":"1 year to 10 years","es":"1 año a 10 años","pt":"1 ano a 10 anos"},"confidence":79,"title":{"en":"Credit cost changes retention and input timing","es":"Costo de crédito cambia retención e insumos","pt":"Custo de crédito muda retenção e insumos"},"currentTrigger":{"en":"Oceania Livestock production index sets the structural baseline","es":"Índice de producción ganadera en Oceanía fija la base estructural","pt":"Índice de produção pecuária em Oceania define a base estrutural"},"triggerDetail":{"en":"87.5 index reported by World Bank WDI. This is slower-moving than market reports but important for supply capacity, feed exposure, and input sensitivity.","es":"87.5 índice reportado por World Bank WDI. Se mueve más lento que los reportes de mercado, pero importa para capacidad, alimento e insumos.","pt":"87.5 índice reportado pelo World Bank WDI. Move mais devagar que relatórios de mercado, mas importa para capacidade, ração e insumos."},"historicalPattern":{"en":"Interest and credit changes hit input prepay and replacements before they show up in herd-size data.","es":"Interés y crédito golpean insumos y reposición antes de aparecer en el tamaño del hato.","pt":"Juros e crédito atingem insumos e reposição antes de aparecer no tamanho do rebanho."},"leadingSignals":[{"en":"Policy rates, farm credit, or inflation move together","es":"Tasas, crédito rural o inflación se mueven juntos","pt":"Juros, crédito rural ou inflação se movem juntos"},{"en":"Replacement purchases slow even when cattle prices look attractive","es":"Reposición se frena aunque el precio parezca atractivo","pt":"Reposição freia mesmo com preço atrativo"},{"en":"Input prepay windows get shorter","es":"Ventanas de prepago de insumos se acortan","pt":"Janelas de pré-pagamento de insumos encurtam"}],"forwardEffects":[{"en":"Retained ownership becomes harder to finance","es":"Propiedad retenida se vuelve más difícil","pt":"Propriedade retida fica mais difícil"},{"en":"Crop input timing can shift acreage and feed supply","es":"Insumos cambian área y oferta de alimento","pt":"Insumos mudam área e oferta de ração"},{"en":"Dairy ration and replacement choices tighten","es":"Dieta y reposición lechera se ajustan","pt":"Dieta e reposição leiteira apertam"}],"producerDecision":{"en":"Use this as the slow baseline before changing cattle, dairy, feed, or crop plans on a short-term headline.","es":"Usar esto como base lenta antes de cambiar planes de ganado, leche, alimento o cultivo por un titular corto.","pt":"Usar isto como base lenta antes de mudar planos de gado, leite, ração ou cultivo por uma manchete curta."},"evidenceIds":["world-bank-wdi-livestock_production_index-oceania-structural-impact","world-bank-wdi-livestock_production_index-oceania"]}]},{"regionId":"europe","regionName":{"en":"Europe","es":"Europa","pt":"Europa"},"pathwayCount":7,"actNowCount":6,"watchCount":0,"opportunityCount":1,"pathways":[{"id":"forecast-europe-crop-balance-to-feed-margin","regionId":"europe","driverId":"crop-balance-to-feed-margin","priority":"act","sectors":["feed","crops","beef","dairy"],"sourceIds":["usda-fas","nasa-power","faostat","usda-wasde","usda-nass","usda-ers-feed-grains","conab","comex-stat","mexico-siap","gdelt-global-news"],"sourceNames":["USDA FAS Open Data","NASA POWER","FAOSTAT","USDA WASDE historical data","USDA NASS QuickStats and ESMIS reports"],"scenarioIds":["feed-cost-spike","crop-yield-shock","drought-shock","export-disruption","milk-margin-squeeze","fertilizer-energy-squeeze","credit-interest-squeeze","port-freight-shock"],"scenarioNames":[{"en":"Feed cost spike","es":"Salto de costo de alimento","pt":"Alta no custo da ração"},{"en":"Crop yield shock","es":"Choque de rendimiento agrícola","pt":"Choque de produtividade agrícola"},{"en":"Drought tightens forage","es":"Sequía aprieta el forraje","pt":"Seca aperta o pasto"},{"en":"Export or border disruption","es":"Interrupción de exportación","pt":"Interrupção de exportação"},{"en":"Milk margin squeeze","es":"Compresión de margen lechero","pt":"Aperto na margem do leite"}],"lookbackWindow":"90 days to 5 years","forwardWindow":{"en":"1 month to 1 year","es":"1 mes a 1 ano","pt":"1 mes a 1 ano"},"confidence":90,"title":{"en":"Crop balance becomes feed margin","es":"Balance agrícola se vuelve margen","pt":"Balanço agrícola vira margem"},"currentTrigger":{"en":"European Union PSD sorghum feed balance updates the long-cycle supply read","es":"Unión Europea PSD balance de sorgo para alimento actualiza la lectura de oferta de ciclo largo","pt":"União Europeia PSD balanço de sorgo para ração atualiza a leitura de oferta de ciclo longo"},"triggerDetail":{"en":"1,140 thousand mt in USDA FAS PSD for European Union. The balance sheet is -14.0% versus 2025, so read it against local prices instead of treating daily headlines as isolated events.","es":"1,140 miles de t en USDA FAS PSD para European Union. El balance es -14.0% versus 2025; leerlo contra precios locales en vez de tratar titulares diarios como eventos aislados.","pt":"1,140 mil t no USDA FAS PSD para European Union. O balanco e -14.0% versus 2025; leia contra precos locais em vez de tratar manchetes diarias como eventos isolados."},"historicalPattern":{"en":"Acreage and crop condition lead production; production leads feed price; feed price leads cattle and milk margins.","es":"Área y condición del cultivo adelantan producción; producción adelanta alimento; alimento adelanta márgenes ganaderos y lecheros.","pt":"Área e condição da cultura antecipam produção; produção antecipa ração; ração antecipa margens pecuárias e leiteiras."},"leadingSignals":[{"en":"Acreage, crop progress, and soil moisture shift together","es":"Área, avance y humedad cambian juntos","pt":"Área, progresso e umidade mudam juntos"},{"en":"Balance-sheet revisions tighten ending stocks","es":"Revisiones reducen stocks finales","pt":"Revisões reduzem estoques finais"},{"en":"Rail, freight, or port pressure widens local basis","es":"Tren, flete o puerto abre base local","pt":"Trem, frete ou porto abre base local"}],"forwardEffects":[{"en":"Backgrounding and finishing margins compress","es":"Recría y engorde comprimen margen","pt":"Recria e terminação comprimem margem"},{"en":"Dairy ration spend rises before cull flow changes","es":"Dieta lechera sube antes del descarte","pt":"Dieta leiteira sobe antes do descarte"},{"en":"Crop producers may gain price opportunity while livestock producers face cost risk","es":"Agricultores ganan precio mientras ganaderos enfrentan costo","pt":"Agricultores ganham preço enquanto pecuaristas enfrentam custo"}],"producerDecision":{"en":"Use the PSD feed balance with delivered corn, meal, hay, freight, and weather before locking ration coverage or holding cattle for more gain.","es":"Usar el balance PSD de alimento con maiz entregado, harina, heno, flete y clima antes de cubrir racion o retener kilos.","pt":"Usar o balanco PSD de racao com milho entregue, farelo, feno, frete e clima antes de cobrir dieta ou reter peso."},"evidenceIds":["fas-psd-e4-sorghum-feed-balance-sheet-impact","nasa-power-ireland-rainfall-baseline","faostat-cattle-stocks-europe"]},{"id":"forecast-europe-dairy-margin-to-beef-supply","regionId":"europe","driverId":"dairy-margin-to-beef-supply","priority":"act","sectors":["dairy","beef","feed"],"sourceIds":["gdt-events","world-bank-pink-sheet","eu-milk","usda-ers-dairy","usda-ams","mexico-siap","ibge-sidra","brazil-bcb-sgs","gdelt-global-news"],"sourceNames":["Global Dairy Trade","World Bank commodity prices","EU Milk Market Observatory","USDA ERS dairy data","USDA AMS MyMarketNews"],"scenarioIds":["milk-margin-squeeze","feed-cost-spike","drought-shock","export-disruption","credit-interest-squeeze","port-freight-shock","geopolitical-shipping-shock"],"scenarioNames":[{"en":"Milk margin squeeze","es":"Compresión de margen lechero","pt":"Aperto na margem do leite"},{"en":"Feed cost spike","es":"Salto de costo de alimento","pt":"Alta no custo da ração"},{"en":"Drought tightens forage","es":"Sequía aprieta el forraje","pt":"Seca aperta o pasto"},{"en":"Export or border disruption","es":"Interrupción de exportación","pt":"Interrupção de exportação"},{"en":"Credit and interest squeeze","es":"Presión de crédito e intereses","pt":"Aperto de crédito e juros"}],"lookbackWindow":"4-26 weeks","forwardWindow":{"en":"Same event to 8 weeks","es":"mismo evento a 8 semanas","pt":"mesmo evento a 8 semanas"},"confidence":89,"title":{"en":"Dairy margins become beef supply","es":"Margen lechero se vuelve carne","pt":"Margem do leite vira carne"},"currentTrigger":{"en":"Europe GDT Skimmilk Powders changes dairy margin pressure","es":"Europe GDT Skimmilk Powders cambia la presion de margen lechero","pt":"Europe GDT Skimmilk Powders muda a pressao de margem do leite"},"triggerDetail":{"en":"3,457 $/mt in the latest Global Dairy Trade public results. The event-to-event index move is -3.0%.","es":"3,457 USD/t en los resultados publicos recientes de Global Dairy Trade. El cambio entre eventos es -3.0%.","pt":"3,457 USD/t nos resultados publicos recentes da Global Dairy Trade. A mudanca entre eventos e -3.0%."},"historicalPattern":{"en":"Milk price and feed cost hit dairy margins before cull cow flow and beef supply respond.","es":"Precio de leche y alimento golpean el margen antes de que cambien descarte y oferta de carne.","pt":"Preço do leite e ração atingem a margem antes de mudar descarte e oferta de carne."},"leadingSignals":[{"en":"Milk-feed spread narrows","es":"Diferencial leche-alimento se achica","pt":"Spread leite-ração diminui"},{"en":"Dairy auction prices weaken","es":"Subastas lácteas bajan","pt":"Leilões lácteos caem"},{"en":"Feed and energy prices rise together","es":"Alimento y energía suben juntos","pt":"Ração e energia sobem juntas"}],"forwardEffects":[{"en":"Cull cows enter beef supply","es":"Vacas de descarte entran a carne","pt":"Vacas de descarte entram na carne"},{"en":"Replacement appetite weakens","es":"Apetito de reposición baja","pt":"Apetite de reposição cai"},{"en":"Milk output can fall after ration cuts","es":"La leche puede caer tras recortes de dieta","pt":"Leite pode cair após corte de dieta"}],"producerDecision":{"en":"Stress-test the milk check against delivered feed before adding ration cost, delaying culls, or keeping marginal cows another cycle.","es":"Probar el pago de leche contra alimento entregado antes de sumar racion, demorar descarte o mantener vacas marginales otro ciclo.","pt":"Teste o pagamento do leite contra racao entregue antes de aumentar dieta, atrasar descarte ou manter vacas marginais outro ciclo."},"evidenceIds":["gdt-events-europe-smp-dairy-margin-impact","world-bank-pink-sheet-beef-europe"]},{"id":"forecast-europe-pasture-stress-to-sale-runs","regionId":"europe","driverId":"pasture-stress-to-sale-runs","priority":"act","sectors":["beef","dairy","feed","crops"],"sourceIds":["open-meteo-forecast","nasa-power","us-drought-monitor","copernicus-cds","bom-climate","brazil-inmet","mexico-siap","gdelt-global-news"],"sourceNames":["Open-Meteo global weather forecast","NASA POWER","U.S. Drought Monitor","Copernicus Climate Data Store","Australian Bureau of Meteorology"],"scenarioIds":["drought-shock","feed-cost-spike","crop-yield-shock","export-disruption","milk-margin-squeeze","fertilizer-energy-squeeze","credit-interest-squeeze","port-freight-shock"],"scenarioNames":[{"en":"Drought tightens forage","es":"Sequía aprieta el forraje","pt":"Seca aperta o pasto"},{"en":"Feed cost spike","es":"Salto de costo de alimento","pt":"Alta no custo da ração"},{"en":"Crop yield shock","es":"Choque de rendimiento agrícola","pt":"Choque de produtividade agrícola"},{"en":"Export or border disruption","es":"Interrupción de exportación","pt":"Interrupção de exportação"},{"en":"Milk margin squeeze","es":"Compresión de margen lechero","pt":"Aperto na margem do leite"}],"lookbackWindow":"30-120 days","forwardWindow":{"en":"0-14 days","es":"0-14 días","pt":"0-14 dias"},"confidence":87,"title":{"en":"Pasture stress becomes sale pressure","es":"Estrés de pasto se vuelve venta","pt":"Estresse de pasto vira venda"},"currentTrigger":{"en":"Western France 7-day rain forecast: next-week forage forecast","es":"Pronóstico de lluvia 7 días en Western France: pronóstico de forraje próxima semana","pt":"Previsão de chuva 7 dias em Western France: previsão de pasto próxima semana"},"triggerDetail":{"en":"3.7 mm/week forecast for the next 7 days. Read it as a forward pasture, water, hay, and sale-timing signal, not as a historical weather note.","es":"3.7 mm/semana previstos para los próximos 7 días. Léelo como señal futura de pasto, agua, heno y momento de venta, no como nota histórica de clima.","pt":"3.7 mm/semana previstos para os próximos 7 dias. Leia como sinal futuro de pasto, água, feno e momento de venda, não como nota histórica de clima."},"historicalPattern":{"en":"Pasture stress usually hits feed buying first, sale runs second, and replacement prices last.","es":"El estrés de pasto suele mover primero la compra de alimento, luego las ventas y al final la reposición.","pt":"O estresse de pasto costuma mover primeiro a compra de ração, depois as vendas e por fim a reposição."},"leadingSignals":[{"en":"Soil moisture drops below seasonal median","es":"Humedad de suelo cae bajo la mediana","pt":"Umidade do solo cai abaixo da mediana"},{"en":"Pasture condition ratings deteriorate","es":"Condición de pasto se deteriora","pt":"Condição do pasto piora"},{"en":"Hay and supplement quotes firm before auction volume rises","es":"Heno y suplemento suben antes del remate","pt":"Feno e suplemento sobem antes do leilão"}],"forwardEffects":[{"en":"More calves and cull cows move earlier","es":"Más terneros y descartes salen antes","pt":"Mais bezerros e descartes saem antes"},{"en":"Replacement animals face discount risk in dry regions","es":"Reposición tiene riesgo de descuento en zonas secas","pt":"Reposição tem risco de desconto em zonas secas"},{"en":"Feed cost can erase the value of extra gain","es":"El alimento borra el valor de más ganancia","pt":"Ração apaga o valor de mais ganho"}],"producerDecision":{"en":"Move the next-week forecast into the sale-or-hold math: count forage days, check water, price hay, and avoid holding cattle for gain that weather may not deliver.","es":"Meter el pronóstico semanal en la cuenta de vender o retener: contar días de pasto, revisar agua, poner precio al heno y evitar retener ganado por una ganancia que el clima no dará.","pt":"Colocar a previsão semanal na conta de vender ou reter: contar dias de pasto, revisar água, precificar feno e evitar reter gado por ganho que o clima pode não entregar."},"evidenceIds":["open-meteo-forecast-western-france-forward-forage-impact","nasa-power-ireland-rainfall-baseline","nasa-power-ireland"]},{"id":"forecast-europe-export-pull-to-local-basis","regionId":"europe","driverId":"export-pull-to-local-basis","priority":"act","sectors":["beef","dairy","feed","crops"],"sourceIds":["world-bank-pink-sheet","usda-fas","usda-esr","un-comtrade","brazil-mapa-agrostat","comex-stat","mexico-siap","brazil-bcb-sgs","gdelt-global-news"],"sourceNames":["World Bank commodity prices","USDA FAS Open Data","USDA Export Sales Reporting","UN Comtrade","Brazil MAPA Agrostat"],"scenarioIds":["export-disruption","milk-margin-squeeze","drought-shock","feed-cost-spike","crop-yield-shock","fertilizer-energy-squeeze","credit-interest-squeeze","port-freight-shock"],"scenarioNames":[{"en":"Export or border disruption","es":"Interrupción de exportación","pt":"Interrupção de exportação"},{"en":"Milk margin squeeze","es":"Compresión de margen lechero","pt":"Aperto na margem do leite"},{"en":"Drought tightens forage","es":"Sequía aprieta el forraje","pt":"Seca aperta o pasto"},{"en":"Feed cost spike","es":"Salto de costo de alimento","pt":"Alta no custo da ração"},{"en":"Crop yield shock","es":"Choque de rendimiento agrícola","pt":"Choque de produtividade agrícola"}],"lookbackWindow":"4-52 weeks","forwardWindow":{"en":"Same month to 6 months","es":"mismo mes a 6 meses","pt":"mesmo mês a 6 meses"},"confidence":87,"title":{"en":"Export pull changes local basis","es":"Exportación cambia la base local","pt":"Exportação muda a base local"},"currentTrigger":{"en":"Europe Global beef price is moving the margin stack","es":"Precio global de carne bovina en Europa mueve la pila de margen","pt":"Preço global da carne bovina em Europa move a pilha de margem"},"triggerDetail":{"en":"7.95 $/kg in the latest World Bank commodity sheet. Read this against export demand, cull values, and local cattle basis.","es":"7.95 USD/kg en la hoja reciente de commodities del Banco Mundial. Leerlo contra exportación, descarte y base local.","pt":"7.95 USD/kg na planilha recente de commodities do Banco Mundial. Leia contra exportação, descarte e base local."},"historicalPattern":{"en":"Export sales lead shipments; shipments lead customs totals; customs totals confirm structural demand.","es":"Las ventas de exportación adelantan embarques; los embarques adelantan aduana; aduana confirma demanda estructural.","pt":"Vendas de exportação antecipam embarques; embarques antecipam aduana; aduana confirma demanda estrutural."},"leadingSignals":[{"en":"Weekly sales or attaché reports change before monthly trade files","es":"Ventas semanales o reportes cambian antes de comercio mensual","pt":"Vendas semanais ou relatórios mudam antes do comércio mensal"},{"en":"Destination concentration rises","es":"Concentración de destino sube","pt":"Concentração de destino sobe"},{"en":"Currency makes local supply cheaper or dearer to importers","es":"El cambio abarata o encarece oferta local","pt":"Câmbio barateia ou encarece oferta local"}],"forwardEffects":[{"en":"Processor bids widen or narrow by export access","es":"Frigoríficos ajustan ofertas por exportación","pt":"Frigoríficos ajustam ofertas por exportação"},{"en":"Feed and crop basis shifts around ports and corridors","es":"Base de grano cambia en puertos y corredores","pt":"Base de grãos muda em portos e corredores"},{"en":"Sanitary or border events can erase the signal quickly","es":"Sanidad o frontera puede borrar la señal rápido","pt":"Sanidade ou fronteira pode apagar o sinal rápido"}],"producerDecision":{"en":"Compare global beef with local bids before deciding whether weak local price is local supply, export demand, or currency.","es":"Comparar carne global con ofertas locales antes de decidir si el precio débil es oferta local, exportación o moneda.","pt":"Compare carne global com preços locais antes de decidir se preço fraco é oferta local, exportação ou câmbio."},"evidenceIds":["world-bank-pink-sheet-beef-europe-commodity-margin-impact","fas-psd-e4-beef"]},{"id":"forecast-europe-geopolitical-shock-to-feed-freight","regionId":"europe","driverId":"geopolitical-shock-to-feed-freight","priority":"act","sectors":["beef","dairy","feed","crops"],"sourceIds":["world-bank-pink-sheet","gdelt-global-news","reliefweb-agriculture","fao-giews","suez-canal-authority","panama-canal-authority","baltic-exchange","eia-fuel","un-comtrade","usda-oce-port-grain"],"sourceNames":["World Bank commodity prices","GDELT global event monitor","ReliefWeb agriculture and disaster reports","FAO GIEWS country briefs","Suez Canal Authority traffic statistics"],"scenarioIds":["fertilizer-energy-squeeze","feed-cost-spike","crop-yield-shock","drought-shock","export-disruption","milk-margin-squeeze","credit-interest-squeeze","port-freight-shock"],"scenarioNames":[{"en":"Fertilizer and energy squeeze","es":"Presión de fertilizante y energía","pt":"Aperto de fertilizante e energia"},{"en":"Feed cost spike","es":"Salto de costo de alimento","pt":"Alta no custo da ração"},{"en":"Crop yield shock","es":"Choque de rendimiento agrícola","pt":"Choque de produtividade agrícola"},{"en":"Drought tightens forage","es":"Sequía aprieta el forraje","pt":"Seca aperta o pasto"},{"en":"Export or border disruption","es":"Interrupción de exportación","pt":"Interrupção de exportação"}],"lookbackWindow":"Same day to 3 years","forwardWindow":{"en":"Same month to 6 months","es":"mismo mes a 6 meses","pt":"mesmo mês a 6 meses"},"confidence":84,"title":{"en":"Geopolitical shocks become feed, freight, and basis risk","es":"Choques geopolíticos se vuelven riesgo de alimento, flete y base","pt":"Choques geopolíticos viram risco de ração, frete e base"},"currentTrigger":{"en":"Europe Global Brent crude oil price is moving the margin stack","es":"Precio global de petróleo Brent en Europa mueve la pila de margen","pt":"Preço global do petróleo Brent em Europa move a pilha de margem"},"triggerDetail":{"en":"107.5 $/bbl in the latest World Bank commodity sheet. Read this against pasture input, fertilizer, diesel, freight, and working capital.","es":"107.5 USD/bbl en la hoja reciente de commodities del Banco Mundial. Leerlo contra insumos de pasto, fertilizante, diésel, flete y capital de trabajo.","pt":"107.5 USD/bbl na planilha recente de commodities do Banco Mundial. Leia contra insumos de pasto, fertilizante, diesel, frete e capital de giro."},"historicalPattern":{"en":"Conflict, sanctions, or shipping-route stress can move fuel, fertilizer, grain, and freight before farmgate cattle or milk prices adjust.","es":"Conflicto, sanciones o rutas marítimas pueden mover combustible, fertilizante, grano y flete antes del precio rural.","pt":"Conflito, sanções ou rotas marítimas podem mover combustível, fertilizante, grão e frete antes do preço rural."},"leadingSignals":[{"en":"Red Sea, Black Sea, canal, port, or border headlines mention grain, fertilizer, fuel, or livestock routes","es":"Titulares de Mar Rojo, Mar Negro, canales, puertos o frontera mencionan granos, fertilizante, combustible o ganado","pt":"Manchetes de Mar Vermelho, Mar Negro, canais, portos ou fronteira mencionam grãos, fertilizante, combustível ou gado"},{"en":"Freight, fuel, fertilizer, or grain indexes move before delivered feed quotes reset","es":"Flete, combustible, fertilizante o granos se mueven antes del alimento entregado","pt":"Frete, combustível, fertilizante ou grãos se movem antes da ração entregue"},{"en":"Destination or route risk weakens the translation from global price to local bid","es":"Riesgo de destino o ruta debilita la traducción de precio global a oferta local","pt":"Risco de destino ou rota enfraquece a tradução de preço global em preço local"}],"forwardEffects":[{"en":"Delivered feed and fertilizer become more expensive or less reliable","es":"Alimento y fertilizante entregados se encarecen o pierden confiabilidad","pt":"Ração e fertilizante entregues ficam mais caros ou menos confiáveis"},{"en":"Local basis can diverge from headline futures or export values","es":"La base local puede separarse de futuros o valores exportadores","pt":"A base local pode se separar de futuros ou valores de exportação"},{"en":"Local feed substitution, earlier sale timing, or destination hedging becomes valuable","es":"Sustitución local, venta más temprana o cobertura de destino gana valor","pt":"Substituição local, venda antecipada ou hedge de destino ganha valor"}],"producerDecision":{"en":"Reprice the next gain period, forage plan, and delivered-feed bill before buying inputs or holding cattle longer.","es":"Recalcular próximo período de ganancia, forraje y alimento entregado antes de comprar insumos o retener ganado.","pt":"Recalcule próximo período de ganho, forragem e ração entregue antes de comprar insumos ou reter gado."},"evidenceIds":["world-bank-pink-sheet-crude-oil-europe-commodity-margin-impact","world-bank-pink-sheet-beef-europe"]},{"id":"forecast-europe-credit-cost-to-retention","regionId":"europe","driverId":"credit-cost-to-retention","priority":"act","sectors":["beef","dairy","feed","crops"],"sourceIds":["world-bank-wdi","fred-ag-macro","imf-ifs","brazil-bcb-sgs","bls-ag-inputs"],"sourceNames":["World Bank World Development Indicators","FRED agriculture macro series","IMF International Financial Statistics","Banco Central do Brasil SGS","U.S. BLS farm input prices"],"scenarioIds":["fertilizer-energy-squeeze","feed-cost-spike","crop-yield-shock","credit-interest-squeeze"],"scenarioNames":[{"en":"Fertilizer and energy squeeze","es":"Presión de fertilizante y energía","pt":"Aperto de fertilizante e energia"},{"en":"Feed cost spike","es":"Salto de costo de alimento","pt":"Alta no custo da ração"},{"en":"Crop yield shock","es":"Choque de rendimiento agrícola","pt":"Choque de produtividade agrícola"},{"en":"Credit and interest squeeze","es":"Presión de crédito e intereses","pt":"Aperto de crédito e juros"}],"lookbackWindow":"30 days to 5 years","forwardWindow":{"en":"1 year to 10 years","es":"1 año a 10 años","pt":"1 ano a 10 anos"},"confidence":79,"title":{"en":"Credit cost changes retention and input timing","es":"Costo de crédito cambia retención e insumos","pt":"Custo de crédito muda retenção e insumos"},"currentTrigger":{"en":"Europe Fertilizer use intensity sets the structural baseline","es":"Intensidad de fertilizante en Europa fija la base estructural","pt":"Intensidade de fertilizante em Europa define a base estrutural"},"triggerDetail":{"en":"385 kg/ha reported by World Bank WDI. This is slower-moving than market reports but important for supply capacity, feed exposure, and input sensitivity.","es":"385 kg/ha reportado por World Bank WDI. Se mueve más lento que los reportes de mercado, pero importa para capacidad, alimento e insumos.","pt":"385 kg/ha reportado pelo World Bank WDI. Move mais devagar que relatórios de mercado, mas importa para capacidade, ração e insumos."},"historicalPattern":{"en":"Interest and credit changes hit input prepay and replacements before they show up in herd-size data.","es":"Interés y crédito golpean insumos y reposición antes de aparecer en el tamaño del hato.","pt":"Juros e crédito atingem insumos e reposição antes de aparecer no tamanho do rebanho."},"leadingSignals":[{"en":"Policy rates, farm credit, or inflation move together","es":"Tasas, crédito rural o inflación se mueven juntos","pt":"Juros, crédito rural ou inflação se movem juntos"},{"en":"Replacement purchases slow even when cattle prices look attractive","es":"Reposición se frena aunque el precio parezca atractivo","pt":"Reposição freia mesmo com preço atrativo"},{"en":"Input prepay windows get shorter","es":"Ventanas de prepago de insumos se acortan","pt":"Janelas de pré-pagamento de insumos encurtam"}],"forwardEffects":[{"en":"Retained ownership becomes harder to finance","es":"Propiedad retenida se vuelve más difícil","pt":"Propriedade retida fica mais difícil"},{"en":"Crop input timing can shift acreage and feed supply","es":"Insumos cambian área y oferta de alimento","pt":"Insumos mudam área e oferta de ração"},{"en":"Dairy ration and replacement choices tighten","es":"Dieta y reposición lechera se ajustan","pt":"Dieta e reposição leiteira apertam"}],"producerDecision":{"en":"Use this as the slow baseline before changing cattle, dairy, feed, or crop plans on a short-term headline.","es":"Usar esto como base lenta antes de cambiar planes de ganado, leche, alimento o cultivo por un titular corto.","pt":"Usar isto como base lenta antes de mudar planos de gado, leite, ração ou cultivo por uma manchete curta."},"evidenceIds":["world-bank-wdi-fertilizer_consumption_kg_ha-europe-structural-impact","world-bank-wdi-livestock_production_index-europe"]},{"id":"forecast-europe-heat-load-to-milk-gain","regionId":"europe","driverId":"heat-load-to-milk-gain","priority":"opportunity","sectors":["dairy","beef","feed","crops"],"sourceIds":["usda-fas","nasa-power","noaa-cpc","copernicus-cds","brazil-inmet","world-bank-climate"],"sourceNames":["USDA FAS Open Data","NASA POWER","NOAA Climate Prediction Center","Copernicus Climate Data Store","Brazil INMET weather data"],"scenarioIds":["milk-margin-squeeze","feed-cost-spike","drought-shock","crop-yield-shock","heat-stress-milk-loss","water-restriction-shock"],"scenarioNames":[{"en":"Milk margin squeeze","es":"Compresión de margen lechero","pt":"Aperto na margem do leite"},{"en":"Feed cost spike","es":"Salto de costo de alimento","pt":"Alta no custo da ração"},{"en":"Drought tightens forage","es":"Sequía aprieta el forraje","pt":"Seca aperta o pasto"},{"en":"Crop yield shock","es":"Choque de rendimiento agrícola","pt":"Choque de produtividade agrícola"},{"en":"Heat stress cuts milk and gain","es":"Calor reduce leche y ganancia","pt":"Calor corta leite e ganho"}],"lookbackWindow":"7-90 days","forwardWindow":{"en":"1 month to 1 year","es":"1 mes a 1 ano","pt":"1 mes a 1 ano"},"confidence":87,"title":{"en":"Heat load becomes milk and weight-gain drag","es":"Carga de calor reduce leche y ganancia","pt":"Carga térmica vira perda de leite e ganho"},"currentTrigger":{"en":"European Union PSD fluid milk and dairy cow supply updates the long-cycle supply read","es":"Unión Europea PSD leche fluida y vacas lecheras actualiza la lectura de oferta de ciclo largo","pt":"União Europeia PSD leite fluido e vacas leiteiras atualiza a leitura de oferta de ciclo longo"},"triggerDetail":{"en":"148,950 thousand mt in USDA FAS PSD for European Union. The balance sheet is -0.5% versus 2025, so read it against local prices instead of treating daily headlines as isolated events.","es":"148,950 miles de t en USDA FAS PSD para European Union. El balance es -0.5% versus 2025; leerlo contra precios locales en vez de tratar titulares diarios como eventos aislados.","pt":"148,950 mil t no USDA FAS PSD para European Union. O balanco e -0.5% versus 2025; leia contra precos locais em vez de tratar manchetes diarias como eventos isolados."},"historicalPattern":{"en":"Heat and humidity affect intake first, then milk, weight gain, conception, and sale timing.","es":"Calor y humedad afectan consumo primero, luego leche, ganancia, preñez y ventas.","pt":"Calor e umidade afetam consumo primeiro, depois leite, ganho, prenhez e venda."},"leadingSignals":[{"en":"Temperature-humidity pressure rises for multiple days","es":"Presión temperatura-humedad sube varios días","pt":"Pressão temperatura-umidade sobe por vários dias"},{"en":"Water demand and night cooling fail to reset","es":"Demanda de agua y noche no se recuperan","pt":"Demanda de água e noite não resetam"},{"en":"Feed intake falls before production reports update","es":"Consumo cae antes del reporte productivo","pt":"Consumo cai antes do relatório produtivo"}],"forwardEffects":[{"en":"Milk output and components weaken","es":"Leche y sólidos se debilitan","pt":"Leite e sólidos enfraquecem"},{"en":"Finishing cattle gain less efficiently","es":"Ganado de engorde gana menos eficientemente","pt":"Gado terminado ganha com menor eficiência"},{"en":"Water, shade, and ration timing become margin controls","es":"Agua, sombra y dieta controlan margen","pt":"Água, sombra e dieta controlam margem"}],"producerDecision":{"en":"Put the PSD milk read beside feed cost, heat, and local milk price before changing cull timing or expansion plans.","es":"Poner PSD leche junto a alimento, calor y precio local antes de cambiar descarte o expansion.","pt":"Colocar PSD leite junto de custo de racao, calor e preco local antes de mudar descarte ou expansao."},"evidenceIds":["fas-psd-e4-milk-fluid-balance-sheet-impact","nasa-power-ireland-rainfall-baseline","nasa-power-ireland"]}]},{"regionId":"africa-asia","regionName":{"en":"Africa and Asia","es":"África y Asia","pt":"África e Ásia"},"pathwayCount":7,"actNowCount":7,"watchCount":0,"opportunityCount":0,"pathways":[{"id":"forecast-africa-asia-pasture-stress-to-sale-runs","regionId":"africa-asia","driverId":"pasture-stress-to-sale-runs","priority":"act","sectors":["beef","dairy","feed","crops"],"sourceIds":["usda-fas","us-drought-monitor","nasa-power","copernicus-cds","bom-climate","brazil-inmet","mexico-siap","gdelt-global-news"],"sourceNames":["USDA FAS Open Data","U.S. Drought Monitor","NASA POWER","Copernicus Climate Data Store","Australian Bureau of Meteorology"],"scenarioIds":["drought-shock","feed-cost-spike","export-disruption","milk-margin-squeeze","crop-yield-shock","fertilizer-energy-squeeze","credit-interest-squeeze","port-freight-shock"],"scenarioNames":[{"en":"Drought tightens forage","es":"Sequía aprieta el forraje","pt":"Seca aperta o pasto"},{"en":"Feed cost spike","es":"Salto de costo de alimento","pt":"Alta no custo da ração"},{"en":"Export or border disruption","es":"Interrupción de exportación","pt":"Interrupção de exportação"},{"en":"Milk margin squeeze","es":"Compresión de margen lechero","pt":"Aperto na margem do leite"},{"en":"Crop yield shock","es":"Choque de rendimiento agrícola","pt":"Choque de produtividade agrícola"}],"lookbackWindow":"30-120 days","forwardWindow":{"en":"1 month to 1 year","es":"1 mes a 1 ano","pt":"1 mes a 1 ano"},"confidence":90,"title":{"en":"Pasture stress becomes sale pressure","es":"Estrés de pasto se vuelve venta","pt":"Estresse de pasto vira venda"},"currentTrigger":{"en":"China PSD cattle herd and slaughter updates the long-cycle supply read","es":"China PSD hato y faena bovina actualiza la lectura de oferta de ciclo largo","pt":"China PSD rebanho e abate bovino atualiza a leitura de oferta de ciclo longo"},"triggerDetail":{"en":"87,560 thousand head in USDA FAS PSD for China. The balance sheet is -6.9% versus 2025, so read it against local prices instead of treating daily headlines as isolated events.","es":"87,560 thousand head en USDA FAS PSD para China. El balance es -6.9% versus 2025; leerlo contra precios locales en vez de tratar titulares diarios como eventos aislados.","pt":"87,560 thousand head no USDA FAS PSD para China. O balanco e -6.9% versus 2025; leia contra precos locais em vez de tratar manchetes diarias como eventos isolados."},"historicalPattern":{"en":"Pasture stress usually hits feed buying first, sale runs second, and replacement prices last.","es":"El estrés de pasto suele mover primero la compra de alimento, luego las ventas y al final la reposición.","pt":"O estresse de pasto costuma mover primeiro a compra de ração, depois as vendas e por fim a reposição."},"leadingSignals":[{"en":"Soil moisture drops below seasonal median","es":"Humedad de suelo cae bajo la mediana","pt":"Umidade do solo cai abaixo da mediana"},{"en":"Pasture condition ratings deteriorate","es":"Condición de pasto se deteriora","pt":"Condição do pasto piora"},{"en":"Hay and supplement quotes firm before auction volume rises","es":"Heno y suplemento suben antes del remate","pt":"Feno e suplemento sobem antes do leilão"}],"forwardEffects":[{"en":"More calves and cull cows move earlier","es":"Más terneros y descartes salen antes","pt":"Mais bezerros e descartes saem antes"},{"en":"Replacement animals face discount risk in dry regions","es":"Reposición tiene riesgo de descuento en zonas secas","pt":"Reposição tem risco de desconto em zonas secas"},{"en":"Feed cost can erase the value of extra gain","es":"El alimento borra el valor de más ganancia","pt":"Ração apaga o valor de mais ganho"}],"producerDecision":{"en":"Use the PSD herd balance before retaining replacements, buying feeders, or assuming local supply will stay loose or tight.","es":"Usar el balance PSD del hato antes de retener reposicion, comprar invernada o asumir oferta local floja o ajustada.","pt":"Usar o balanco PSD do rebanho antes de reter reposicao, comprar recria ou assumir oferta local frouxa ou apertada."},"evidenceIds":["fas-psd-ch-cattle-balance-sheet-impact"]},{"id":"forecast-africa-asia-export-pull-to-local-basis","regionId":"africa-asia","driverId":"export-pull-to-local-basis","priority":"act","sectors":["beef","dairy","feed","crops"],"sourceIds":["usda-fas","usda-esr","un-comtrade","brazil-mapa-agrostat","comex-stat","mexico-siap","brazil-bcb-sgs","gdelt-global-news"],"sourceNames":["USDA FAS Open Data","USDA Export Sales Reporting","UN Comtrade","Brazil MAPA Agrostat","Brazil Comex Stat"],"scenarioIds":["export-disruption","disease-alert","drought-shock","feed-cost-spike","milk-margin-squeeze","crop-yield-shock","fertilizer-energy-squeeze","credit-interest-squeeze"],"scenarioNames":[{"en":"Export or border disruption","es":"Interrupción de exportación","pt":"Interrupção de exportação"},{"en":"Disease alert or movement hold","es":"Alerta sanitario o pausa de movimiento","pt":"Alerta sanitário ou pausa de movimentação"},{"en":"Drought tightens forage","es":"Sequía aprieta el forraje","pt":"Seca aperta o pasto"},{"en":"Feed cost spike","es":"Salto de costo de alimento","pt":"Alta no custo da ração"},{"en":"Milk margin squeeze","es":"Compresión de margen lechero","pt":"Aperto na margem do leite"}],"lookbackWindow":"4-52 weeks","forwardWindow":{"en":"1 month to 1 year","es":"1 mes a 1 ano","pt":"1 mes a 1 ano"},"confidence":90,"title":{"en":"Export pull changes local basis","es":"Exportación cambia la base local","pt":"Exportação muda a base local"},"currentTrigger":{"en":"China PSD beef supply and trade updates the long-cycle supply read","es":"China PSD oferta y comercio de carne bovina actualiza la lectura de oferta de ciclo largo","pt":"China PSD oferta e comércio de carne bovina atualiza a leitura de oferta de ciclo longo"},"triggerDetail":{"en":"7,600 thousand metric tons CWE in USDA FAS PSD for China. The balance sheet is -5.1% versus 2025, so read it against local prices instead of treating daily headlines as isolated events.","es":"7,600 thousand metric tons CWE en USDA FAS PSD para China. El balance es -5.1% versus 2025; leerlo contra precios locales en vez de tratar titulares diarios como eventos aislados.","pt":"7,600 thousand metric tons CWE no USDA FAS PSD para China. O balanco e -5.1% versus 2025; leia contra precos locais em vez de tratar manchetes diarias como eventos isolados."},"historicalPattern":{"en":"Export sales lead shipments; shipments lead customs totals; customs totals confirm structural demand.","es":"Las ventas de exportación adelantan embarques; los embarques adelantan aduana; aduana confirma demanda estructural.","pt":"Vendas de exportação antecipam embarques; embarques antecipam aduana; aduana confirma demanda estrutural."},"leadingSignals":[{"en":"Weekly sales or attaché reports change before monthly trade files","es":"Ventas semanales o reportes cambian antes de comercio mensual","pt":"Vendas semanais ou relatórios mudam antes do comércio mensal"},{"en":"Destination concentration rises","es":"Concentración de destino sube","pt":"Concentração de destino sobe"},{"en":"Currency makes local supply cheaper or dearer to importers","es":"El cambio abarata o encarece oferta local","pt":"Câmbio barateia ou encarece oferta local"}],"forwardEffects":[{"en":"Processor bids widen or narrow by export access","es":"Frigoríficos ajustan ofertas por exportación","pt":"Frigoríficos ajustam ofertas por exportação"},{"en":"Feed and crop basis shifts around ports and corridors","es":"Base de grano cambia en puertos y corredores","pt":"Base de grãos muda em portos e corredores"},{"en":"Sanitary or border events can erase the signal quickly","es":"Sanidad o frontera puede borrar la señal rápido","pt":"Sanidade ou fronteira pode apagar o sinal rápido"}],"producerDecision":{"en":"Compare PSD beef supply and trade with local bids before deciding whether price weakness is temporary noise or real buyer leverage.","es":"Comparar oferta y comercio PSD con ofertas locales antes de decidir si debilidad de precio es ruido o poder comprador real.","pt":"Comparar oferta e comercio PSD com precos locais antes de decidir se fraqueza e ruido ou poder comprador real."},"evidenceIds":["fas-psd-ch-beef-balance-sheet-impact","fas-psd-ch-beef"]},{"id":"forecast-africa-asia-crop-balance-to-feed-margin","regionId":"africa-asia","driverId":"crop-balance-to-feed-margin","priority":"act","sectors":["feed","crops","beef","dairy"],"sourceIds":["usda-wasde","faostat","usda-nass","usda-ers-feed-grains","conab","comex-stat","mexico-siap","gdelt-global-news"],"sourceNames":["USDA WASDE historical data","FAOSTAT","USDA NASS QuickStats and ESMIS reports","USDA ERS Feed Grains Database","CONAB agriculture portal"],"scenarioIds":["feed-cost-spike","crop-yield-shock","drought-shock","export-disruption","milk-margin-squeeze","fertilizer-energy-squeeze","credit-interest-squeeze","port-freight-shock"],"scenarioNames":[{"en":"Feed cost spike","es":"Salto de costo de alimento","pt":"Alta no custo da ração"},{"en":"Crop yield shock","es":"Choque de rendimiento agrícola","pt":"Choque de produtividade agrícola"},{"en":"Drought tightens forage","es":"Sequía aprieta el forraje","pt":"Seca aperta o pasto"},{"en":"Export or border disruption","es":"Interrupción de exportación","pt":"Interrupção de exportação"},{"en":"Milk margin squeeze","es":"Compresión de margen lechero","pt":"Aperto na margem do leite"}],"lookbackWindow":"90 days to 5 years","forwardWindow":{"en":"1 month to 1 year","es":"1 mes a 1 ano","pt":"1 mes a 1 ano"},"confidence":90,"title":{"en":"Crop balance becomes feed margin","es":"Balance agrícola se vuelve margen","pt":"Balanço agrícola vira margem"},"currentTrigger":{"en":"China soybean meal ending stocks changes the monthly feed and supply read","es":"China existencias finales de harina de soja cambia la lectura mensual de alimento y oferta","pt":"China estoques finais de farelo de soja muda a leitura mensal de racao e oferta"},"triggerDetail":{"en":"1.5 million tonnes in the May 2026 WASDE for 2026/27; +13.3% versus 2025/26. This is the official monthly bridge from crop/feed balance to cattle, milk, and sale timing.","es":"1.5 millones de toneladas en el WASDE May 2026 para 2026/27; +13.3% versus 2025/26. Es el puente mensual oficial entre balance de alimento, ganado, leche y momento de venta.","pt":"1.5 milhoes de toneladas no WASDE May 2026 para 2026/27; +13.3% versus 2025/26. E a ponte mensal oficial entre balanco de racao, gado, leite e venda."},"historicalPattern":{"en":"Acreage and crop condition lead production; production leads feed price; feed price leads cattle and milk margins.","es":"Área y condición del cultivo adelantan producción; producción adelanta alimento; alimento adelanta márgenes ganaderos y lecheros.","pt":"Área e condição da cultura antecipam produção; produção antecipa ração; ração antecipa margens pecuárias e leiteiras."},"leadingSignals":[{"en":"Acreage, crop progress, and soil moisture shift together","es":"Área, avance y humedad cambian juntos","pt":"Área, progresso e umidade mudam juntos"},{"en":"Balance-sheet revisions tighten ending stocks","es":"Revisiones reducen stocks finales","pt":"Revisões reduzem estoques finais"},{"en":"Rail, freight, or port pressure widens local basis","es":"Tren, flete o puerto abre base local","pt":"Trem, frete ou porto abre base local"}],"forwardEffects":[{"en":"Backgrounding and finishing margins compress","es":"Recría y engorde comprimen margen","pt":"Recria e terminação comprimem margem"},{"en":"Dairy ration spend rises before cull flow changes","es":"Dieta lechera sube antes del descarte","pt":"Dieta leiteira sobe antes do descarte"},{"en":"Crop producers may gain price opportunity while livestock producers face cost risk","es":"Agricultores ganan precio mientras ganaderos enfrentan costo","pt":"Agricultores ganham preço enquanto pecuaristas enfrentam custo"}],"producerDecision":{"en":"Put the WASDE revision beside local corn, meal, hay, freight, and weather before buying feed, buying feeders, or holding cattle for more gain.","es":"Poner la revision WASDE junto a maiz local, harina, heno, flete y clima antes de comprar alimento, invernada o retener kilos.","pt":"Colocar a revisao WASDE junto de milho local, farelo, feno, frete e clima antes de comprar racao, recria ou reter peso."},"evidenceIds":["usda-wasde-china-soymeal-stocks-monthly-balance-impact","faostat-cattle-stocks-africa-asia"]},{"id":"forecast-africa-asia-dairy-margin-to-beef-supply","regionId":"africa-asia","driverId":"dairy-margin-to-beef-supply","priority":"act","sectors":["dairy","beef","feed"],"sourceIds":["gdt-events","world-bank-pink-sheet","eu-milk","usda-ers-dairy","usda-ams","mexico-siap","ibge-sidra","brazil-bcb-sgs","gdelt-global-news"],"sourceNames":["Global Dairy Trade","World Bank commodity prices","EU Milk Market Observatory","USDA ERS dairy data","USDA AMS MyMarketNews"],"scenarioIds":["milk-margin-squeeze","feed-cost-spike","drought-shock","export-disruption","credit-interest-squeeze","port-freight-shock","geopolitical-shipping-shock"],"scenarioNames":[{"en":"Milk margin squeeze","es":"Compresión de margen lechero","pt":"Aperto na margem do leite"},{"en":"Feed cost spike","es":"Salto de costo de alimento","pt":"Alta no custo da ração"},{"en":"Drought tightens forage","es":"Sequía aprieta el forraje","pt":"Seca aperta o pasto"},{"en":"Export or border disruption","es":"Interrupción de exportación","pt":"Interrupção de exportação"},{"en":"Credit and interest squeeze","es":"Presión de crédito e intereses","pt":"Aperto de crédito e juros"}],"lookbackWindow":"4-26 weeks","forwardWindow":{"en":"Same event to 8 weeks","es":"mismo evento a 8 semanas","pt":"mesmo evento a 8 semanas"},"confidence":89,"title":{"en":"Dairy margins become beef supply","es":"Margen lechero se vuelve carne","pt":"Margem do leite vira carne"},"currentTrigger":{"en":"Africa/Asia GDT Skimmilk Powders changes dairy margin pressure","es":"Africa/Asia GDT Skimmilk Powders cambia la presion de margen lechero","pt":"Africa/Asia GDT Skimmilk Powders muda a pressao de margem do leite"},"triggerDetail":{"en":"3,457 $/mt in the latest Global Dairy Trade public results. The event-to-event index move is -3.0%.","es":"3,457 USD/t en los resultados publicos recientes de Global Dairy Trade. El cambio entre eventos es -3.0%.","pt":"3,457 USD/t nos resultados publicos recentes da Global Dairy Trade. A mudanca entre eventos e -3.0%."},"historicalPattern":{"en":"Milk price and feed cost hit dairy margins before cull cow flow and beef supply respond.","es":"Precio de leche y alimento golpean el margen antes de que cambien descarte y oferta de carne.","pt":"Preço do leite e ração atingem a margem antes de mudar descarte e oferta de carne."},"leadingSignals":[{"en":"Milk-feed spread narrows","es":"Diferencial leche-alimento se achica","pt":"Spread leite-ração diminui"},{"en":"Dairy auction prices weaken","es":"Subastas lácteas bajan","pt":"Leilões lácteos caem"},{"en":"Feed and energy prices rise together","es":"Alimento y energía suben juntos","pt":"Ração e energia sobem juntas"}],"forwardEffects":[{"en":"Cull cows enter beef supply","es":"Vacas de descarte entran a carne","pt":"Vacas de descarte entram na carne"},{"en":"Replacement appetite weakens","es":"Apetito de reposición baja","pt":"Apetite de reposição cai"},{"en":"Milk output can fall after ration cuts","es":"La leche puede caer tras recortes de dieta","pt":"Leite pode cair após corte de dieta"}],"producerDecision":{"en":"Stress-test the milk check against delivered feed before adding ration cost, delaying culls, or keeping marginal cows another cycle.","es":"Probar el pago de leche contra alimento entregado antes de sumar racion, demorar descarte o mantener vacas marginales otro ciclo.","pt":"Teste o pagamento do leite contra racao entregue antes de aumentar dieta, atrasar descarte ou manter vacas marginais outro ciclo."},"evidenceIds":["gdt-events-africa-asia-smp-dairy-margin-impact","world-bank-pink-sheet-beef-africa-asia"]},{"id":"forecast-africa-asia-heat-load-to-milk-gain","regionId":"africa-asia","driverId":"heat-load-to-milk-gain","priority":"act","sectors":["dairy","beef","feed","crops"],"sourceIds":["open-meteo-forecast","nasa-power","noaa-cpc","copernicus-cds","brazil-inmet","world-bank-climate"],"sourceNames":["Open-Meteo global weather forecast","NASA POWER","NOAA Climate Prediction Center","Copernicus Climate Data Store","Brazil INMET weather data"],"scenarioIds":["drought-shock","milk-margin-squeeze","crop-yield-shock","feed-cost-spike","heat-stress-milk-loss","water-restriction-shock"],"scenarioNames":[{"en":"Drought tightens forage","es":"Sequía aprieta el forraje","pt":"Seca aperta o pasto"},{"en":"Milk margin squeeze","es":"Compresión de margen lechero","pt":"Aperto na margem do leite"},{"en":"Crop yield shock","es":"Choque de rendimiento agrícola","pt":"Choque de produtividade agrícola"},{"en":"Feed cost spike","es":"Salto de costo de alimento","pt":"Alta no custo da ração"},{"en":"Heat stress cuts milk and gain","es":"Calor reduce leche y ganancia","pt":"Calor corta leite e ganho"}],"lookbackWindow":"7-90 days","forwardWindow":{"en":"0-14 days","es":"0-14 días","pt":"0-14 dias"},"confidence":88,"title":{"en":"Heat load becomes milk and weight-gain drag","es":"Carga de calor reduce leche y ganancia","pt":"Carga térmica vira perda de leite e ganho"},"currentTrigger":{"en":"South Asia dairy clusters 7-day water demand forecast: heat and water demand watch","es":"Demanda de agua 7 días en South Asia dairy clusters: vigilar calor y demanda de agua","pt":"Demanda de água 7 dias em South Asia dairy clusters: observar calor e demanda de água"},"triggerDetail":{"en":"53.8 mm/week forecast for reference evapotranspiration. That is a forward signal for pasture drying, trough checks, shade, dairy comfort, and irrigated feed-crop pressure.","es":"53.8 mm/semana previstos de evapotranspiración de referencia. Es señal futura de secado de pasto, revisión de bebederos, sombra, confort lechero y presión de cultivos forrajeros bajo riego.","pt":"53.8 mm/semana previstos de evapotranspiração de referência. É sinal futuro de secagem do pasto, checagem de bebedouros, sombra, conforto leiteiro e pressão em culturas de ração irrigadas."},"historicalPattern":{"en":"Heat and humidity affect intake first, then milk, weight gain, conception, and sale timing.","es":"Calor y humedad afectan consumo primero, luego leche, ganancia, preñez y ventas.","pt":"Calor e umidade afetam consumo primeiro, depois leite, ganho, prenhez e venda."},"leadingSignals":[{"en":"Temperature-humidity pressure rises for multiple days","es":"Presión temperatura-humedad sube varios días","pt":"Pressão temperatura-umidade sobe por vários dias"},{"en":"Water demand and night cooling fail to reset","es":"Demanda de agua y noche no se recuperan","pt":"Demanda de água e noite não resetam"},{"en":"Feed intake falls before production reports update","es":"Consumo cae antes del reporte productivo","pt":"Consumo cai antes do relatório produtivo"}],"forwardEffects":[{"en":"Milk output and components weaken","es":"Leche y sólidos se debilitan","pt":"Leite e sólidos enfraquecem"},{"en":"Finishing cattle gain less efficiently","es":"Ganado de engorde gana menos eficientemente","pt":"Gado terminado ganha com menor eficiência"},{"en":"Water, shade, and ration timing become margin controls","es":"Agua, sombra y dieta controlan margen","pt":"Água, sombra e dieta controlam margem"}],"producerDecision":{"en":"Move water checks, shade, transport timing, and dairy heat-abatement ahead of the forecast peak before assuming cattle will keep eating and gaining normally.","es":"Adelantar agua, sombra, horario de transporte y mitigación de calor lechero antes del pico previsto, sin asumir consumo y ganancia normales.","pt":"Antecipar checagem de água, sombra, horário de transporte e conforto térmico leiteiro antes do pico previsto, sem assumir consumo e ganho normais."},"evidenceIds":["open-meteo-water-demand-south-asia-dairy-water-heat-impact"]},{"id":"forecast-africa-asia-geopolitical-shock-to-feed-freight","regionId":"africa-asia","driverId":"geopolitical-shock-to-feed-freight","priority":"act","sectors":["beef","dairy","feed","crops"],"sourceIds":["world-bank-pink-sheet","gdelt-global-news","reliefweb-agriculture","fao-giews","suez-canal-authority","panama-canal-authority","baltic-exchange","eia-fuel","un-comtrade","usda-oce-port-grain"],"sourceNames":["World Bank commodity prices","GDELT global event monitor","ReliefWeb agriculture and disaster reports","FAO GIEWS country briefs","Suez Canal Authority traffic statistics"],"scenarioIds":["fertilizer-energy-squeeze","feed-cost-spike","crop-yield-shock","drought-shock","export-disruption","milk-margin-squeeze","credit-interest-squeeze","port-freight-shock"],"scenarioNames":[{"en":"Fertilizer and energy squeeze","es":"Presión de fertilizante y energía","pt":"Aperto de fertilizante e energia"},{"en":"Feed cost spike","es":"Salto de costo de alimento","pt":"Alta no custo da ração"},{"en":"Crop yield shock","es":"Choque de rendimiento agrícola","pt":"Choque de produtividade agrícola"},{"en":"Drought tightens forage","es":"Sequía aprieta el forraje","pt":"Seca aperta o pasto"},{"en":"Export or border disruption","es":"Interrupción de exportación","pt":"Interrupção de exportação"}],"lookbackWindow":"Same day to 3 years","forwardWindow":{"en":"Same month to 6 months","es":"mismo mes a 6 meses","pt":"mesmo mês a 6 meses"},"confidence":84,"title":{"en":"Geopolitical shocks become feed, freight, and basis risk","es":"Choques geopolíticos se vuelven riesgo de alimento, flete y base","pt":"Choques geopolíticos viram risco de ração, frete e base"},"currentTrigger":{"en":"Africa and Asia Global Brent crude oil price is moving the margin stack","es":"Precio global de petróleo Brent en África y Asia mueve la pila de margen","pt":"Preço global do petróleo Brent em África e Ásia move a pilha de margem"},"triggerDetail":{"en":"107.5 $/bbl in the latest World Bank commodity sheet. Read this against pasture input, fertilizer, diesel, freight, and working capital.","es":"107.5 USD/bbl en la hoja reciente de commodities del Banco Mundial. Leerlo contra insumos de pasto, fertilizante, diésel, flete y capital de trabajo.","pt":"107.5 USD/bbl na planilha recente de commodities do Banco Mundial. Leia contra insumos de pasto, fertilizante, diesel, frete e capital de giro."},"historicalPattern":{"en":"Conflict, sanctions, or shipping-route stress can move fuel, fertilizer, grain, and freight before farmgate cattle or milk prices adjust.","es":"Conflicto, sanciones o rutas marítimas pueden mover combustible, fertilizante, grano y flete antes del precio rural.","pt":"Conflito, sanções ou rotas marítimas podem mover combustível, fertilizante, grão e frete antes do preço rural."},"leadingSignals":[{"en":"Red Sea, Black Sea, canal, port, or border headlines mention grain, fertilizer, fuel, or livestock routes","es":"Titulares de Mar Rojo, Mar Negro, canales, puertos o frontera mencionan granos, fertilizante, combustible o ganado","pt":"Manchetes de Mar Vermelho, Mar Negro, canais, portos ou fronteira mencionam grãos, fertilizante, combustível ou gado"},{"en":"Freight, fuel, fertilizer, or grain indexes move before delivered feed quotes reset","es":"Flete, combustible, fertilizante o granos se mueven antes del alimento entregado","pt":"Frete, combustível, fertilizante ou grãos se movem antes da ração entregue"},{"en":"Destination or route risk weakens the translation from global price to local bid","es":"Riesgo de destino o ruta debilita la traducción de precio global a oferta local","pt":"Risco de destino ou rota enfraquece a tradução de preço global em preço local"}],"forwardEffects":[{"en":"Delivered feed and fertilizer become more expensive or less reliable","es":"Alimento y fertilizante entregados se encarecen o pierden confiabilidad","pt":"Ração e fertilizante entregues ficam mais caros ou menos confiáveis"},{"en":"Local basis can diverge from headline futures or export values","es":"La base local puede separarse de futuros o valores exportadores","pt":"A base local pode se separar de futuros ou valores de exportação"},{"en":"Local feed substitution, earlier sale timing, or destination hedging becomes valuable","es":"Sustitución local, venta más temprana o cobertura de destino gana valor","pt":"Substituição local, venda antecipada ou hedge de destino ganha valor"}],"producerDecision":{"en":"Reprice the next gain period, forage plan, and delivered-feed bill before buying inputs or holding cattle longer.","es":"Recalcular próximo período de ganancia, forraje y alimento entregado antes de comprar insumos o retener ganado.","pt":"Recalcule próximo período de ganho, forragem e ração entregue antes de comprar insumos ou reter gado."},"evidenceIds":["world-bank-pink-sheet-crude-oil-africa-asia-commodity-margin-impact","world-bank-pink-sheet-beef-africa-asia"]},{"id":"forecast-africa-asia-credit-cost-to-retention","regionId":"africa-asia","driverId":"credit-cost-to-retention","priority":"act","sectors":["beef","dairy","feed","crops"],"sourceIds":["world-bank-wdi","fred-ag-macro","imf-ifs","brazil-bcb-sgs","bls-ag-inputs"],"sourceNames":["World Bank World Development Indicators","FRED agriculture macro series","IMF International Financial Statistics","Banco Central do Brasil SGS","U.S. BLS farm input prices"],"scenarioIds":["fertilizer-energy-squeeze","feed-cost-spike","crop-yield-shock","credit-interest-squeeze"],"scenarioNames":[{"en":"Fertilizer and energy squeeze","es":"Presión de fertilizante y energía","pt":"Aperto de fertilizante e energia"},{"en":"Feed cost spike","es":"Salto de costo de alimento","pt":"Alta no custo da ração"},{"en":"Crop yield shock","es":"Choque de rendimiento agrícola","pt":"Choque de produtividade agrícola"},{"en":"Credit and interest squeeze","es":"Presión de crédito e intereses","pt":"Aperto de crédito e juros"}],"lookbackWindow":"30 days to 5 years","forwardWindow":{"en":"1 year to 10 years","es":"1 año a 10 años","pt":"1 ano a 10 anos"},"confidence":79,"title":{"en":"Credit cost changes retention and input timing","es":"Costo de crédito cambia retención e insumos","pt":"Custo de crédito muda retenção e insumos"},"currentTrigger":{"en":"Africa and Asia Fertilizer use intensity sets the structural baseline","es":"Intensidad de fertilizante en África y Asia fija la base estructural","pt":"Intensidade de fertilizante em África e Ásia define a base estrutural"},"triggerDetail":{"en":"297 kg/ha reported by World Bank WDI. This is slower-moving than market reports but important for supply capacity, feed exposure, and input sensitivity.","es":"297 kg/ha reportado por World Bank WDI. Se mueve más lento que los reportes de mercado, pero importa para capacidad, alimento e insumos.","pt":"297 kg/ha reportado pelo World Bank WDI. Move mais devagar que relatórios de mercado, mas importa para capacidade, ração e insumos."},"historicalPattern":{"en":"Interest and credit changes hit input prepay and replacements before they show up in herd-size data.","es":"Interés y crédito golpean insumos y reposición antes de aparecer en el tamaño del hato.","pt":"Juros e crédito atingem insumos e reposição antes de aparecer no tamanho do rebanho."},"leadingSignals":[{"en":"Policy rates, farm credit, or inflation move together","es":"Tasas, crédito rural o inflación se mueven juntos","pt":"Juros, crédito rural ou inflação se movem juntos"},{"en":"Replacement purchases slow even when cattle prices look attractive","es":"Reposición se frena aunque el precio parezca atractivo","pt":"Reposição freia mesmo com preço atrativo"},{"en":"Input prepay windows get shorter","es":"Ventanas de prepago de insumos se acortan","pt":"Janelas de pré-pagamento de insumos encurtam"}],"forwardEffects":[{"en":"Retained ownership becomes harder to finance","es":"Propiedad retenida se vuelve más difícil","pt":"Propriedade retida fica mais difícil"},{"en":"Crop input timing can shift acreage and feed supply","es":"Insumos cambian área y oferta de alimento","pt":"Insumos mudam área e oferta de ração"},{"en":"Dairy ration and replacement choices tighten","es":"Dieta y reposición lechera se ajustan","pt":"Dieta e reposição leiteira apertam"}],"producerDecision":{"en":"Use this as the slow baseline before changing cattle, dairy, feed, or crop plans on a short-term headline.","es":"Usar esto como base lenta antes de cambiar planes de ganado, leche, alimento o cultivo por un titular corto.","pt":"Usar isto como base lenta antes de mudar planos de gado, leite, ração ou cultivo por uma manchete curta."},"evidenceIds":["world-bank-wdi-fertilizer_consumption_kg_ha-africa-asia-structural-impact","world-bank-wdi-livestock_production_index-africa-asia"]}]}]},"regionalSamples":[{"regionId":"north-america","regionName":{"en":"North America","es":"Norteamérica","pt":"América do Norte"},"liveObservations":[{"id":"nasa-power-southern-plains","sourceName":"NASA POWER","label":{"en":"Southern Plains weather pressure","es":"Presión climática en Southern Plains","pt":"Pressão climática em Southern Plains"},"metric":"rainfall_7d_mm","value":22.7,"unit":"mm","observationDate":"2026-06-03","confidence":70,"producerRead":{"en":"Southern Plains: 22.7 mm rain over the last week, 26.4 C average temperature, 60% humidity, and 2.7 m/s wind. Use this to judge pasture recovery, water checks, and sale timing.","es":"Southern Plains: 22.7 mm de lluvia en la última semana, 26.4 C de temperatura media, 60% de humedad y 2.7 m/s de viento. Úsalo para revisar rebrote de pasto, agua y momento de venta.","pt":"Southern Plains: 22.7 mm de chuva na última semana, 26.4 C de temperatura média, 60% de umidade e 2.7 m/s de vento. Use para avaliar pasto, água e momento de venda."},"sourceUrl":"https://power.larc.nasa.gov/api/temporal/daily/point?parameters=T2M%2CRH2M%2CPRECTOTCORR%2CWS2M&community=AG&longitude=-99.5&latitude=35.5&start=20260528&end=20260603&format=JSON"},{"id":"us-drought-monitor-conus-d2-plus","sourceName":"U.S. Drought Monitor","label":{"en":"CONUS severe drought footprint","es":"Huella de sequia severa en EE.UU.","pt":"Pegada de seca severa nos EUA"},"metric":"usdm_d2_plus_area_percent","value":31.2,"unit":"% D2+ area","observationDate":"2026-06-02","confidence":88,"producerRead":{"en":"CONUS: 31.2% of area is in severe drought or worse (D2+), 48.8% is in moderate drought or worse (D1+), and 12.2% is in extreme drought or worse (D3+). D2+ changed -6.1 percentage points week over week. Use this before assuming pasture will carry cattle or hay demand will stay local.","es":"CONUS: 31.2% del area esta en sequia severa o peor (D2+), 48.8% en sequia moderada o peor (D1+) y 12.2% en sequia extrema o peor (D3+). D2+ cambio -6.1 percentage points semanal. Usarlo antes de asumir que el pasto sostiene ganado o que la demanda de heno queda local.","pt":"CONUS: 31.2% da area esta em seca severa ou pior (D2+), 48.8% em seca moderada ou pior (D1+) e 12.2% em seca extrema ou pior (D3+). D2+ mudou -6.1 percentage points na semana. Usar antes de assumir que o pasto carrega o gado ou que a demanda de feno fica local."},"sourceUrl":"https://usdmdataservices.unl.edu/api/USStatistics/GetDroughtSeverityStatisticsByArea?startdate=4%2F22%2F2026&enddate=6%2F6%2F2026&statisticsType=1&aoi=us"},{"id":"us-drought-monitor-southern-plains-d2-plus","sourceName":"U.S. Drought Monitor","label":{"en":"Southern Plains severe drought footprint","es":"Sequia severa en las Planicies del Sur","pt":"Seca severa nas Planicies do Sul"},"metric":"usdm_d2_plus_area_percent","value":51.8,"unit":"% D2+ area","observationDate":"2026-06-02","confidence":90,"producerRead":{"en":"Southern Plains cattle states: 51.8% of area is in severe drought or worse (D2+), 70.5% is in moderate drought or worse (D1+), and 24.2% is in extreme drought or worse (D3+). D2+ changed -4.8 percentage points week over week. Use this before assuming pasture will carry cattle or hay demand will stay local.","es":"Southern Plains cattle states: 51.8% del area esta en sequia severa o peor (D2+), 70.5% en sequia moderada o peor (D1+) y 24.2% en sequia extrema o peor (D3+). D2+ cambio -4.8 percentage points semanal. Usarlo antes de asumir que el pasto sostiene ganado o que la demanda de heno queda local.","pt":"Southern Plains cattle states: 51.8% da area esta em seca severa ou pior (D2+), 70.5% em seca moderada ou pior (D1+) e 24.2% em seca extrema ou pior (D3+). D2+ mudou -4.8 percentage points na semana. Usar antes de assumir que o pasto carrega o gado ou que a demanda de feno fica local."},"sourceUrl":"https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/DmData/DataDownload.aspx"},{"id":"us-drought-monitor-texas-d2-plus","sourceName":"U.S. Drought Monitor","label":{"en":"Texas severe drought footprint","es":"Texas sequia severa","pt":"Texas seca severa"},"metric":"usdm_d2_plus_area_percent","value":30.6,"unit":"% D2+ area","observationDate":"2026-06-02","confidence":87,"producerRead":{"en":"Texas: 30.6% of area is in severe drought or worse (D2+), 50.1% is in moderate drought or worse (D1+), and 11.6% is in extreme drought or worse (D3+). D2+ changed -6.2 percentage points week over week. Use this before assuming pasture will carry cattle or hay demand will stay local.","es":"Texas: 30.6% del area esta en sequia severa o peor (D2+), 50.1% en sequia moderada o peor (D1+) y 11.6% en sequia extrema o peor (D3+). D2+ cambio -6.2 percentage points semanal. Usarlo antes de asumir que el pasto sostiene ganado o que la demanda de heno queda local.","pt":"Texas: 30.6% da area esta em seca severa ou pior (D2+), 50.1% em seca moderada ou pior (D1+) e 11.6% em seca extrema ou pior (D3+). D2+ mudou -6.2 percentage points na semana. Usar antes de assumir que o pasto carrega o gado ou que a demanda de feno fica local."},"sourceUrl":"https://usdmdataservices.unl.edu/api/StateStatistics/GetDroughtSeverityStatisticsByArea?startdate=4%2F22%2F2026&enddate=6%2F6%2F2026&statisticsType=1&aoi=48"},{"id":"us-drought-monitor-oklahoma-d2-plus","sourceName":"U.S. Drought Monitor","label":{"en":"Oklahoma severe drought footprint","es":"Oklahoma sequia severa","pt":"Oklahoma seca severa"},"metric":"usdm_d2_plus_area_percent","value":45.5,"unit":"% D2+ area","observationDate":"2026-06-02","confidence":87,"producerRead":{"en":"Oklahoma: 45.5% of area is in severe drought or worse (D2+), 80.8% is in moderate drought or worse (D1+), and 38.4% is in extreme drought or worse (D3+). D2+ changed -1.5 percentage points week over week. Use this before assuming pasture will carry cattle or hay demand will stay local.","es":"Oklahoma: 45.5% del area esta en sequia severa o peor (D2+), 80.8% en sequia moderada o peor (D1+) y 38.4% en sequia extrema o peor (D3+). D2+ cambio -1.5 percentage points semanal. Usarlo antes de asumir que el pasto sostiene ganado o que la demanda de heno queda local.","pt":"Oklahoma: 45.5% da area esta em seca severa ou pior (D2+), 80.8% em seca moderada ou pior (D1+) e 38.4% em seca extrema ou pior (D3+). D2+ mudou -1.5 percentage points na semana. Usar antes de assumir que o pasto carrega o gado ou que a demanda de feno fica local."},"sourceUrl":"https://usdmdataservices.unl.edu/api/StateStatistics/GetDroughtSeverityStatisticsByArea?startdate=4%2F22%2F2026&enddate=6%2F6%2F2026&statisticsType=1&aoi=40"},{"id":"us-drought-monitor-kansas-d2-plus","sourceName":"U.S. Drought Monitor","label":{"en":"Kansas severe drought footprint","es":"Kansas sequia severa","pt":"Kansas seca severa"},"metric":"usdm_d2_plus_area_percent","value":25,"unit":"% D2+ area","observationDate":"2026-06-02","confidence":87,"producerRead":{"en":"Kansas: 25.0% of area is in severe drought or worse (D2+), 52.5% is in moderate drought or worse (D1+), and 4.3% is in extreme drought or worse (D3+). D2+ changed -14.8 percentage points week over week. Use this before assuming pasture will carry cattle or hay demand will stay local.","es":"Kansas: 25.0% del area esta en sequia severa o peor (D2+), 52.5% en sequia moderada o peor (D1+) y 4.3% en sequia extrema o peor (D3+). D2+ cambio -14.8 percentage points semanal. Usarlo antes de asumir que el pasto sostiene ganado o que la demanda de heno queda local.","pt":"Kansas: 25.0% da area esta em seca severa ou pior (D2+), 52.5% em seca moderada ou pior (D1+) e 4.3% em seca extrema ou pior (D3+). D2+ mudou -14.8 percentage points na semana. Usar antes de assumir que o pasto carrega o gado ou que a demanda de feno fica local."},"sourceUrl":"https://usdmdataservices.unl.edu/api/StateStatistics/GetDroughtSeverityStatisticsByArea?startdate=4%2F22%2F2026&enddate=6%2F6%2F2026&statisticsType=1&aoi=20"},{"id":"us-drought-monitor-nebraska-d2-plus","sourceName":"U.S. Drought Monitor","label":{"en":"Nebraska severe drought footprint","es":"Nebraska sequia severa","pt":"Nebraska seca severa"},"metric":"usdm_d2_plus_area_percent","value":75.2,"unit":"% D2+ area","observationDate":"2026-06-02","confidence":87,"producerRead":{"en":"Nebraska: 75.2% of area is in severe drought or worse (D2+), 82.9% is in moderate drought or worse (D1+), and 55.0% is in extreme drought or worse (D3+). D2+ changed -4.2 percentage points week over week. Use this before assuming pasture will carry cattle or hay demand will stay local.","es":"Nebraska: 75.2% del area esta en sequia severa o peor (D2+), 82.9% en sequia moderada o peor (D1+) y 55.0% en sequia extrema o peor (D3+). D2+ cambio -4.2 percentage points semanal. Usarlo antes de asumir que el pasto sostiene ganado o que la demanda de heno queda local.","pt":"Nebraska: 75.2% da area esta em seca severa ou pior (D2+), 82.9% em seca moderada ou pior (D1+) e 55.0% em seca extrema ou pior (D3+). D2+ mudou -4.2 percentage points na semana. Usar antes de assumir que o pasto carrega o gado ou que a demanda de feno fica local."},"sourceUrl":"https://usdmdataservices.unl.edu/api/StateStatistics/GetDroughtSeverityStatisticsByArea?startdate=4%2F22%2F2026&enddate=6%2F6%2F2026&statisticsType=1&aoi=31"},{"id":"us-drought-monitor-colorado-d2-plus","sourceName":"U.S. Drought Monitor","label":{"en":"Colorado severe drought footprint","es":"Colorado sequia severa","pt":"Colorado seca severa"},"metric":"usdm_d2_plus_area_percent","value":76,"unit":"% D2+ area","observationDate":"2026-06-02","confidence":87,"producerRead":{"en":"Colorado: 76.0% of area is in severe drought or worse (D2+), 92.7% is in moderate drought or worse (D1+), and 35.9% is in extreme drought or worse (D3+). D2+ changed -1.7 percentage points week over week. Use this before assuming pasture will carry cattle or hay demand will stay local.","es":"Colorado: 76.0% del area esta en sequia severa o peor (D2+), 92.7% en sequia moderada o peor (D1+) y 35.9% en sequia extrema o peor (D3+). D2+ cambio -1.7 percentage points semanal. Usarlo antes de asumir que el pasto sostiene ganado o que la demanda de heno queda local.","pt":"Colorado: 76.0% da area esta em seca severa ou pior (D2+), 92.7% em seca moderada ou pior (D1+) e 35.9% em seca extrema ou pior (D3+). D2+ mudou -1.7 percentage points na semana. Usar antes de assumir que o pasto carrega o gado ou que a demanda de feno fica local."},"sourceUrl":"https://usdmdataservices.unl.edu/api/StateStatistics/GetDroughtSeverityStatisticsByArea?startdate=4%2F22%2F2026&enddate=6%2F6%2F2026&statisticsType=1&aoi=08"},{"id":"us-drought-monitor-new-mexico-d2-plus","sourceName":"U.S. Drought Monitor","label":{"en":"New Mexico severe drought footprint","es":"New Mexico sequia severa","pt":"New Mexico seca severa"},"metric":"usdm_d2_plus_area_percent","value":84.5,"unit":"% D2+ area","observationDate":"2026-06-02","confidence":87,"producerRead":{"en":"New Mexico: 84.5% of area is in severe drought or worse (D2+), 94.4% is in moderate drought or worse (D1+), and 27.3% is in extreme drought or worse (D3+). D2+ changed -0.1 percentage points week over week. Use this before assuming pasture will carry cattle or hay demand will stay local.","es":"New Mexico: 84.5% del area esta en sequia severa o peor (D2+), 94.4% en sequia moderada o peor (D1+) y 27.3% en sequia extrema o peor (D3+). D2+ cambio -0.1 percentage points semanal. Usarlo antes de asumir que el pasto sostiene ganado o que la demanda de heno queda local.","pt":"New Mexico: 84.5% da area esta em seca severa ou pior (D2+), 94.4% em seca moderada ou pior (D1+) e 27.3% em seca extrema ou pior (D3+). D2+ mudou -0.1 percentage points na semana. Usar antes de assumir que o pasto carrega o gado ou que a demanda de feno fica local."},"sourceUrl":"https://usdmdataservices.unl.edu/api/StateStatistics/GetDroughtSeverityStatisticsByArea?startdate=4%2F22%2F2026&enddate=6%2F6%2F2026&statisticsType=1&aoi=35"},{"id":"open-meteo-forecast-southern-plains","sourceName":"Open-Meteo global weather forecast","label":{"en":"Southern Plains 7-day rain forecast","es":"Pronóstico de lluvia 7 días en Southern Plains","pt":"Previsão de chuva 7 dias em Southern Plains"},"metric":"open_meteo_7d_precip_forecast","value":1.8,"unit":"mm/week","observationDate":"2026-06-06 to 2026-06-12","confidence":79,"producerRead":{"en":"Southern Plains: 1.8 mm rain forecast over 7 days, 6 dry days, 39.1 C air-temperature high, 41.4 C apparent high, and 18.4 C low. Use this before moving cattle, changing supplement, buying hay, or holding weight through the next gain window.","es":"Southern Plains: 1.8 mm de lluvia previstos en 7 días, 6 días secos, máxima de aire de 39.1 C, sensación máxima de 41.4 C y mínima de 18.4 C. Úsalo antes de mover ganado, cambiar suplemento, comprar heno o retener peso en la próxima ventana de ganancia.","pt":"Southern Plains: 1.8 mm de chuva previstos em 7 dias, 6 dias secos, máxima do ar de 39.1 C, sensação máxima de 41.4 C e mínima de 18.4 C. Use antes de mover gado, mudar suplemento, comprar feno ou reter peso na próxima janela de ganho."},"sourceUrl":"https://api.open-meteo.com/v1/forecast?latitude=35.5&longitude=-99.5&daily=temperature_2m_max%2Ctemperature_2m_min%2Capparent_temperature_max%2Cprecipitation_sum%2Cet0_fao_evapotranspiration&forecast_days=7&timezone=auto"}],"driverImpacts":[{"id":"us-drought-monitor-southern-plains-d2-plus-forage-retention-impact","sectors":["beef","dairy","feed"],"severity":"high","confidence":92,"title":{"en":"Southern Plains severe drought footprint changes forage and retention risk","es":"Sequia severa en las Planicies del Sur cambia riesgo de forraje y retencion","pt":"Seca severa nas Planicies do Sul muda risco de pasto e retencao"},"signal":{"en":"52 % D2+ area in the latest U.S. Drought Monitor. D2+ is the official severe-drought footprint to read before assuming pasture, hay, and water pressure stay local.","es":"52 % D2+ area en el U.S. Drought Monitor reciente. D2+ es la huella oficial de sequia severa para leer antes de asumir pasto, heno y agua estables.","pt":"52 % D2+ area no U.S. Drought Monitor recente. D2+ e a pegada oficial de seca severa para ler antes de assumir pasto, feno e agua estaveis."},"affects":{"en":"Cow retention, calf movement, hay demand, stocker gain, water checks, local basis, and replacement price.","es":"Retencion de vacas, movimiento de terneros, demanda de heno, ganancia, agua, base local y reposicion.","pt":"Retencao de matrizes, movimento de bezerros, demanda de feno, ganho, agua, base local e reposicao."},"producerDecision":{"en":"Recount forage and hay inventory now, then compare selling lighter cattle against carrying them through a drought-priced gain period.","es":"Recontar pasto y heno ahora, luego comparar vender ganado mas liviano contra sostenerlo en un periodo de ganancia con sequia.","pt":"Recontar pasto e feno agora, depois comparar vender gado mais leve contra segurar em periodo de ganho precificado pela seca."},"sourceIds":["us-drought-monitor"]},{"id":"us-drought-monitor-oklahoma-d2-plus-forage-retention-impact","sectors":["beef","dairy","feed"],"severity":"high","confidence":91,"title":{"en":"Oklahoma severe drought footprint changes forage and retention risk","es":"Oklahoma sequia severa cambia riesgo de forraje y retencion","pt":"Oklahoma seca severa muda risco de pasto e retencao"},"signal":{"en":"46 % D2+ area in the latest U.S. Drought Monitor. D2+ is the official severe-drought footprint to read before assuming pasture, hay, and water pressure stay local.","es":"46 % D2+ area en el U.S. Drought Monitor reciente. D2+ es la huella oficial de sequia severa para leer antes de asumir pasto, heno y agua estables.","pt":"46 % D2+ area no U.S. Drought Monitor recente. D2+ e a pegada oficial de seca severa para ler antes de assumir pasto, feno e agua estaveis."},"affects":{"en":"Cow retention, calf movement, hay demand, stocker gain, water checks, local basis, and replacement price.","es":"Retencion de vacas, movimiento de terneros, demanda de heno, ganancia, agua, base local y reposicion.","pt":"Retencao de matrizes, movimento de bezerros, demanda de feno, ganho, agua, base local e reposicao."},"producerDecision":{"en":"Recount forage and hay inventory now, then compare selling lighter cattle against carrying them through a drought-priced gain period.","es":"Recontar pasto y heno ahora, luego comparar vender ganado mas liviano contra sostenerlo en un periodo de ganancia con sequia.","pt":"Recontar pasto e feno agora, depois comparar vender gado mais leve contra segurar em periodo de ganho precificado pela seca."},"sourceIds":["us-drought-monitor"]},{"id":"us-drought-monitor-nebraska-d2-plus-forage-retention-impact","sectors":["beef","dairy","feed"],"severity":"high","confidence":91,"title":{"en":"Nebraska severe drought footprint changes forage and retention risk","es":"Nebraska sequia severa cambia riesgo de forraje y retencion","pt":"Nebraska seca severa muda risco de pasto e retencao"},"signal":{"en":"75 % D2+ area in the latest U.S. Drought Monitor. D2+ is the official severe-drought footprint to read before assuming pasture, hay, and water pressure stay local.","es":"75 % D2+ area en el U.S. Drought Monitor reciente. D2+ es la huella oficial de sequia severa para leer antes de asumir pasto, heno y agua estables.","pt":"75 % D2+ area no U.S. Drought Monitor recente. D2+ e a pegada oficial de seca severa para ler antes de assumir pasto, feno e agua estaveis."},"affects":{"en":"Cow retention, calf movement, hay demand, stocker gain, water checks, local basis, and replacement price.","es":"Retencion de vacas, movimiento de terneros, demanda de heno, ganancia, agua, base local y reposicion.","pt":"Retencao de matrizes, movimento de bezerros, demanda de feno, ganho, agua, base local e reposicao."},"producerDecision":{"en":"Recount forage and hay inventory now, then compare selling lighter cattle against carrying them through a drought-priced gain period.","es":"Recontar pasto y heno ahora, luego comparar vender ganado mas liviano contra sostenerlo en un periodo de ganancia con sequia.","pt":"Recontar pasto e feno agora, depois comparar vender gado mais leve contra segurar em periodo de ganho precificado pela seca."},"sourceIds":["us-drought-monitor"]},{"id":"us-drought-monitor-colorado-d2-plus-forage-retention-impact","sectors":["beef","dairy","feed"],"severity":"high","confidence":91,"title":{"en":"Colorado severe drought footprint changes forage and retention risk","es":"Colorado sequia severa cambia riesgo de forraje y retencion","pt":"Colorado seca severa muda risco de pasto e retencao"},"signal":{"en":"76 % D2+ area in the latest U.S. Drought Monitor. D2+ is the official severe-drought footprint to read before assuming pasture, hay, and water pressure stay local.","es":"76 % D2+ area en el U.S. Drought Monitor reciente. D2+ es la huella oficial de sequia severa para leer antes de asumir pasto, heno y agua estables.","pt":"76 % D2+ area no U.S. Drought Monitor recente. D2+ e a pegada oficial de seca severa para ler antes de assumir pasto, feno e agua estaveis."},"affects":{"en":"Cow retention, calf movement, hay demand, stocker gain, water checks, local basis, and replacement price.","es":"Retencion de vacas, movimiento de terneros, demanda de heno, ganancia, agua, base local y reposicion.","pt":"Retencao de matrizes, movimento de bezerros, demanda de feno, ganho, agua, base local e reposicao."},"producerDecision":{"en":"Recount forage and hay inventory now, then compare selling lighter cattle against carrying them through a drought-priced gain period.","es":"Recontar pasto y heno ahora, luego comparar vender ganado mas liviano contra sostenerlo en un periodo de ganancia con sequia.","pt":"Recontar pasto e feno agora, depois comparar vender gado mais leve contra segurar em periodo de ganho precificado pela seca."},"sourceIds":["us-drought-monitor"]},{"id":"us-drought-monitor-new-mexico-d2-plus-forage-retention-impact","sectors":["beef","dairy","feed"],"severity":"high","confidence":91,"title":{"en":"New Mexico severe drought footprint changes forage and retention risk","es":"New Mexico sequia severa cambia riesgo de forraje y retencion","pt":"New Mexico seca severa muda risco de pasto e retencao"},"signal":{"en":"85 % D2+ area in the latest U.S. Drought Monitor. D2+ is the official severe-drought footprint to read before assuming pasture, hay, and water pressure stay local.","es":"85 % D2+ area en el U.S. Drought Monitor reciente. D2+ es la huella oficial de sequia severa para leer antes de asumir pasto, heno y agua estables.","pt":"85 % D2+ area no U.S. Drought Monitor recente. D2+ e a pegada oficial de seca severa para ler antes de assumir pasto, feno e agua estaveis."},"affects":{"en":"Cow retention, calf movement, hay demand, stocker gain, water checks, local basis, and replacement price.","es":"Retencion de vacas, movimiento de terneros, demanda de heno, ganancia, agua, base local y reposicion.","pt":"Retencao de matrizes, movimento de bezerros, demanda de feno, ganho, agua, base local e reposicao."},"producerDecision":{"en":"Recount forage and hay inventory now, then compare selling lighter cattle against carrying them through a drought-priced gain period.","es":"Recontar pasto y heno ahora, luego comparar vender ganado mas liviano contra sostenerlo en un periodo de ganancia con sequia.","pt":"Recontar pasto e feno agora, depois comparar vender gado mais leve contra segurar em periodo de ganho precificado pela seca."},"sourceIds":["us-drought-monitor"]},{"id":"usda-nass-cattle-on-feed-fed-cattle-marketings-2026-05-22-official-report-impact","sectors":["beef","feed"],"severity":"high","confidence":91,"title":{"en":"U.S. fed cattle marketings changes the official cattle on feed read","es":"Ventas de ganado terminado EE. UU. cambia la lectura oficial de Cattle on Feed","pt":"Vendas de gado terminado EUA muda a leitura oficial de Cattle on Feed"},"signal":{"en":"1.6 million head in the 2026-05-22 USDA NASS Cattle on Feed; -10.0% versus the prior period. This is an official supply, feed, dairy, or pasture signal to read before treating local prices as isolated.","es":"1.6 millones de cabezas en USDA NASS Cattle on Feed 2026-05-22; -10.0% versus the prior period. Es una senal oficial de oferta, alimento, leche o pasto antes de tratar precios locales como aislados.","pt":"1.6 milhoes de cabecas no USDA NASS Cattle on Feed 2026-05-22; -10.0% versus the prior period. E sinal oficial de oferta, racao, leite ou pasto antes de tratar preco local como isolado."},"affects":{"en":"Packer pull, sale weights, cull-cow value, local bids, boxed-beef support, and sale-window confidence.","es":"Demanda frigorifica, pesos de venta, vaca de descarte, ofertas locales, mayorista y confianza de venta.","pt":"Demanda de frigorifico, peso de venda, vaca descarte, preco local, atacado e confianca da janela de venda."},"producerDecision":{"en":"Check slaughter flow and live weights against local bids before holding unpriced cattle or assuming packer demand is unchanged.","es":"Revisar faena y peso vivo contra ofertas locales antes de retener ganado sin precio o asumir demanda frigorifica igual.","pt":"Checar abate e peso vivo contra preco local antes de segurar gado sem preco ou assumir demanda igual."},"sourceIds":["usda-nass"]},{"id":"usda-nass-livestock-slaughter-cattle-slaughter-2026-05-21-official-report-impact","sectors":["beef"],"severity":"high","confidence":91,"title":{"en":"U.S. cattle slaughter changes the official livestock slaughter read","es":"Faena bovina EE. UU. cambia la lectura oficial de Livestock Slaughter","pt":"Abate bovino EUA muda a leitura oficial de Livestock Slaughter"},"signal":{"en":"2.3 million head in the 2026-05-21 USDA NASS Livestock Slaughter; -9.0% versus the prior period. This is an official supply, feed, dairy, or pasture signal to read before treating local prices as isolated.","es":"2.3 millones de cabezas en USDA NASS Livestock Slaughter 2026-05-21; -9.0% versus the prior period. Es una senal oficial de oferta, alimento, leche o pasto antes de tratar precios locales como aislados.","pt":"2.3 milhoes de cabecas no USDA NASS Livestock Slaughter 2026-05-21; -9.0% versus the prior period. E sinal oficial de oferta, racao, leite ou pasto antes de tratar preco local como isolado."},"affects":{"en":"Packer pull, sale weights, cull-cow value, local bids, boxed-beef support, and sale-window confidence.","es":"Demanda frigorifica, pesos de venta, vaca de descarte, ofertas locales, mayorista y confianza de venta.","pt":"Demanda de frigorifico, peso de venda, vaca descarte, preco local, atacado e confianca da janela de venda."},"producerDecision":{"en":"Check slaughter flow and live weights against local bids before holding unpriced cattle or assuming packer demand is unchanged.","es":"Revisar faena y peso vivo contra ofertas locales antes de retener ganado sin precio o asumir demanda frigorifica igual.","pt":"Checar abate e peso vivo contra preco local antes de segurar gado sem preco ou assumir demanda igual."},"sourceIds":["usda-nass"]},{"id":"usda-nass-crop-progress-pasture-good-excellent-2026-06-01-official-report-impact","sectors":["feed","crops","beef","dairy"],"severity":"high","confidence":91,"title":{"en":"U.S. pasture good/excellent changes the official crop progress read","es":"Pasto bueno/excelente EE. UU. cambia la lectura oficial de Crop Progress","pt":"Pasto bom/excelente EUA muda a leitura oficial de Crop Progress"},"signal":{"en":"30 % in the 2026-06-01 USDA NASS Crop Progress; -12.0 points versus last year. This is an official supply, feed, dairy, or pasture signal to read before treating local prices as isolated.","es":"30 % en USDA NASS Crop Progress 2026-06-01; -12.0 points versus last year. Es una senal oficial de oferta, alimento, leche o pasto antes de tratar precios locales como aislados.","pt":"30 % no USDA NASS Crop Progress 2026-06-01; -12.0 points versus last year. E sinal oficial de oferta, racao, leite ou pasto antes de tratar preco local como isolado."},"affects":{"en":"Feed coverage, hay buying, pasture carrying days, local basis, feeder bids, and whether extra retained weight still pays.","es":"Cobertura de alimento, compra de heno, dias de pasto, base local, invernada y si retener kilos aun paga.","pt":"Cobertura de racao, compra de feno, dias de pasto, base local, recria e se peso retido ainda paga."},"producerDecision":{"en":"Move this NASS read into the feed plan now: count forage days, price hay and grain, then compare selling lighter cattle against buying another gain period.","es":"Meter esta lectura NASS en el plan de alimento: contar dias de pasto, cotizar heno y grano, y comparar vender liviano contra comprar otro periodo de ganancia.","pt":"Coloque esta leitura NASS no plano de racao: contar dias de pasto, cotar feno e grao, e comparar vender leve contra comprar outro periodo de ganho."},"sourceIds":["usda-nass"]}],"temporalSignals":[{"id":"nasa-power-southern-plains-rainfall-baseline","sourceName":"NASA POWER","metric":"rainfall_vs_prior_30d","currentValue":22.7,"baselineValue":17,"changePercent":34,"direction":"watch","confidence":82,"title":{"en":"Southern Plains rainfall against the prior 30 days","es":"Lluvia en Southern Plains contra los 30 días previos","pt":"Chuva em Southern Plains contra os 30 dias anteriores"},"signal":{"en":"Southern Plains received 22.7 mm in the latest 7-day window versus a prior 30-day pace of 17.0 mm/week.","es":"Southern Plains recibió 22.7 mm en los últimos 7 días contra un ritmo previo de 17.0 mm/semana.","pt":"Southern Plains recebeu 22.7 mm nos últimos 7 dias contra ritmo anterior de 17.0 mm/semana."},"producerDecision":{"en":"Compare the next 2-8 weeks of forage against feed cost before holding cattle for more weight.","es":"Comparar las próximas 2-8 semanas de forraje contra costo de alimento antes de retener ganado.","pt":"Comparar as próximas 2-8 semanas de pasto contra custo de ração antes de reter gado."},"sourceUrl":"https://power.larc.nasa.gov/api/temporal/daily/point?parameters=T2M%2CPRECTOTCORR&community=AG&longitude=-99.5&latitude=35.5&start=20260428&end=20260603&format=JSON"},{"id":"usgs-water-southern-plains-30d-baseline","sourceName":"USGS Water Services","metric":"streamflow_vs_30d_average","currentValue":408,"baselineValue":32.3,"changePercent":1162,"direction":"improving","confidence":80,"title":{"en":"Southern Plains streamflow against the 30-day baseline","es":"Caudal de Southern Plains contra base de 30 días","pt":"Vazão de Southern Plains contra base de 30 dias"},"signal":{"en":"Latest streamflow is 408.0 cfs versus a 30-day average of 32.3 cfs.","es":"El caudal reciente es 408.0 pies cúbicos/s contra un promedio de 30 días de 32.3 pies cúbicos/s.","pt":"A vazão recente é 408.0 pés cúbicos/s contra média de 30 dias de 32.3 pés cúbicos/s."},"producerDecision":{"en":"Use water plus forage days as the constraint before buying hay, adding animals, or delaying sales.","es":"Usar agua más días de forraje como restricción antes de comprar heno, sumar animales o demorar ventas.","pt":"Usar água mais dias de pasto como restrição antes de comprar feno, somar animais ou atrasar vendas."},"sourceUrl":"https://waterservices.usgs.gov/nwis/iv/?format=json&sites=07227500¶meterCd=00060&period=P30D&siteStatus=all"}],"marketEvents":[{"id":"gdelt-global-news-internazionale-it-screwworm-border-closure-fuels-beef-boom-in-mexico-gloom-in-texas-2026-06-06","sourceName":"GDELT Global Event Monitor","category":{"en":"Animal health","es":"Sanidad animal","pt":"Sanidade animal"},"severity":"high","publishedAt":"2026-06-06T10:45:00.000Z","title":{"en":"Screwworm border closure fuels beef boom in Mexico , gloom in Texas","es":"Screwworm border closure fuels beef boom in Mexico , gloom in Texas","pt":"Screwworm border closure fuels beef boom in Mexico , gloom in Texas"},"summary":{"en":"Public event-stream item selected because it may affect livestock movement, buyer access, or biosecurity: Screwworm border closure fuels beef boom in Mexico , gloom in Texas Prior public event carried forward because the live event stream did not complete in this update.","es":"Ítem público seleccionado porque puede afectar movimiento, acceso de compradores o bioseguridad: Screwworm border closure fuels beef boom in Mexico , gloom in Texas Evento público previo mantenido porque la fuente en vivo no completó esta actualización.","pt":"Item público selecionado porque pode afetar movimentação, acesso de compradores ou biossegurança: Screwworm border closure fuels beef boom in Mexico , gloom in Texas Evento público anterior mantido porque a fonte ao vivo não completou esta atualização."},"producerDecision":{"en":"Check movement, replacement purchases, and export-linked commitments before assuming normal buyer access.","es":"Revisar movimiento, reposición y compromisos exportadores antes de asumir acceso normal.","pt":"Revisar movimentação, reposição e compromissos exportadores antes de assumir acesso normal."},"sourceUrl":"https://www.internazionale.it/ultime-notizie-reuters/2026/06/06/screwworm-border-closure-fuels-beef-boom-in-mexico-gloom-in-texas","confidence":40},{"id":"google-news-rss-global-feed-trade-screwworm-flies-add-to-cattle-ranchers-woes-the-new-york-times-2026-06-06","sourceName":"Google News public search RSS","category":{"en":"Animal health","es":"Sanidad animal","pt":"Sanidade animal"},"severity":"high","publishedAt":"2026-06-06T09:02:04.000Z","title":{"en":"Screwworm Flies Add to Cattle Ranchers’ Woes - The New York Times","es":"Screwworm Flies Add to Cattle Ranchers’ Woes - The New York Times","pt":"Screwworm Flies Add to Cattle Ranchers’ Woes - The New York Times"},"summary":{"en":"Public item selected because it can affect livestock movement, buyer access, and biosecurity: Screwworm Flies Add to Cattle Ranchers’ Woes - The New York Times","es":"Ítem público seleccionado porque puede afectar movimiento, acceso de compradores y bioseguridad: Screwworm Flies Add to Cattle Ranchers’ Woes - The New York Times","pt":"Item público selecionado porque pode afetar movimentação, acesso de compradores e biossegurança: Screwworm Flies Add to Cattle Ranchers’ Woes - The New York Times"},"producerDecision":{"en":"Check movement, replacement purchases, and export-linked commitments before assuming normal buyer access.","es":"Revisar movimiento, reposición y compromisos exportadores antes de asumir acceso normal.","pt":"Revisar movimentação, reposição e compromissos exportadores antes de assumir acesso normal."},"sourceUrl":"https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMihgFBVV95cUxPam5NTGN1NjhwVUl6QmJRRXpTUksxSXk3YW5uSXVWV1FKT2p4dVNCNzhMSEFRNnBSTk5vWWJzR3NjMmJUM2RJVnZpQVZLNF9DWUZ4V1VfTE9waU4xd0IxVnJHNm9malJsTGE1X0ZVckpjbHRHSDlESmN2cWZMNktHb2FDQzJNUQ?oc=5","confidence":82},{"id":"google-news-rss-animal-health-canada-bans-texas-cattle-over-flesh-eating-screwworm-outbreak-in-us-bbc-2026-06-06","sourceName":"Google News public search RSS","category":{"en":"Animal health","es":"Sanidad animal","pt":"Sanidade animal"},"severity":"high","publishedAt":"2026-06-06T04:22:25.000Z","title":{"en":"Canada bans Texas cattle over flesh-eating screwworm outbreak in US - BBC","es":"Canada bans Texas cattle over flesh-eating screwworm outbreak in US - BBC","pt":"Canada bans Texas cattle over flesh-eating screwworm outbreak in US - BBC"},"summary":{"en":"Public item selected because it can affect livestock movement, buyer access, and biosecurity: Canada bans Texas cattle over flesh-eating screwworm outbreak in US - BBC","es":"Ítem público seleccionado porque puede afectar movimiento, acceso de compradores y bioseguridad: Canada bans Texas cattle over flesh-eating screwworm outbreak in US - BBC","pt":"Item público selecionado porque pode afetar movimentação, acesso de compradores e biossegurança: Canada bans Texas cattle over flesh-eating screwworm outbreak in US - BBC"},"producerDecision":{"en":"Check movement, replacement purchases, and export-linked commitments before assuming normal buyer access.","es":"Revisar movimiento, reposición y compromisos exportadores antes de asumir acceso normal.","pt":"Revisar movimentação, reposição e compromissos exportadores antes de assumir acesso normal."},"sourceUrl":"https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiWkFVX3lxTE02Q0NodGVFcGVBOVBROVVKWkF5NHhlZkV1X0puU3JrWHYxaEJlODFXZFNDczFYbURXdTJGQ3pqUWxORmFGYnl3Rll1OGhJYWdRa1VmSERGZGh0QQ?oc=5","confidence":82},{"id":"google-news-rss-animal-health-us-plans-to-fight-flesh-eating-screwworm-outbreak-with-flies-and-dogs-bbc-2026-06-06","sourceName":"Google News public search RSS","category":{"en":"Animal health","es":"Sanidad animal","pt":"Sanidade animal"},"severity":"high","publishedAt":"2026-06-06T01:55:03.000Z","title":{"en":"US plans to fight flesh-eating screwworm outbreak with flies and dogs - BBC","es":"US plans to fight flesh-eating screwworm outbreak with flies and dogs - BBC","pt":"US plans to fight flesh-eating screwworm outbreak with flies and dogs - BBC"},"summary":{"en":"Public item selected because it can affect livestock movement, buyer access, and biosecurity: US plans to fight flesh-eating screwworm outbreak with flies and dogs - BBC","es":"Ítem público seleccionado porque puede afectar movimiento, acceso de compradores y bioseguridad: US plans to fight flesh-eating screwworm outbreak with flies and dogs - BBC","pt":"Item público selecionado porque pode afetar movimentação, acesso de compradores e biossegurança: US plans to fight flesh-eating screwworm outbreak with flies and dogs - BBC"},"producerDecision":{"en":"Check movement, replacement purchases, and export-linked commitments before assuming normal buyer access.","es":"Revisar movimiento, reposición y compromisos exportadores antes de asumir acceso normal.","pt":"Revisar movimentação, reposição e compromissos exportadores antes de assumir acesso normal."},"sourceUrl":"https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiWkFVX3lxTFBibTB3eS1FdHY1U2U3LThVVUgzNEZCb1ZPSW90cTVqZy1uaUxQMldUSTM5MWZHOV9KQjVOaU5jeVJybGJBN2pJanFiZ2ZTckFyZmZfYlY3b21QZw?oc=5","confidence":82},{"id":"google-news-rss-animal-health-first-u-s-screwworm-case-since-1960s-prompts-texas-emergency-response-the-new-york-t-2026-06-06","sourceName":"Google News public search RSS","category":{"en":"Animal health","es":"Sanidad animal","pt":"Sanidade animal"},"severity":"high","publishedAt":"2026-06-06T01:04:30.000Z","title":{"en":"First U.S. Screwworm Case Since 1960s Prompts Texas Emergency Response - The New York Times","es":"First U.S. Screwworm Case Since 1960s Prompts Texas Emergency Response - The New York Times","pt":"First U.S. Screwworm Case Since 1960s Prompts Texas Emergency Response - The New York Times"},"summary":{"en":"Public item selected because it can affect livestock movement, buyer access, and biosecurity: First U.S. Screwworm Case Since 1960s Prompts Texas Emergency Response - The New York Times","es":"Ítem público seleccionado porque puede afectar movimiento, acceso de compradores y bioseguridad: First U.S. Screwworm Case Since 1960s Prompts Texas Emergency Response - The New York Times","pt":"Item público selecionado porque pode afetar movimentação, acesso de compradores e biossegurança: First U.S. Screwworm Case Since 1960s Prompts Texas Emergency Response - The New York Times"},"producerDecision":{"en":"Check movement, replacement purchases, and export-linked commitments before assuming normal buyer access.","es":"Revisar movimiento, reposición y compromisos exportadores antes de asumir acceso normal.","pt":"Revisar movimentação, reposição e compromissos exportadores antes de assumir acesso normal."},"sourceUrl":"https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMinwFBVV95cUxOZzFyS0RJWmwzYlJlUXVGTk5FUGVVTkZ3SFZnaE1vUmZ5eFZFVUtDZVUzNlNFZ3RQcV9iUnBxanNQMjRsUTZNSlUtZEw3Z3hRbE02bk16amQ2cjV0SV9oSGFGX3RzT0lFUXltYll5LTlkQ0VuMC1HWXV3QUVZVUhSWU1PNzR5Y3dRUzNXVVFYNzh3TGRlbWlVLVluUGVlaUE?oc=5","confidence":82},{"id":"google-news-rss-animal-health-texas-ranchers-on-edge-after-screwworm-parasite-detected-in-calf-reuters-2026-06-05","sourceName":"Google News public search RSS","category":{"en":"Animal health","es":"Sanidad animal","pt":"Sanidade animal"},"severity":"high","publishedAt":"2026-06-05T21:58:11.000Z","title":{"en":"Texas ranchers on edge after screwworm parasite detected in calf - Reuters","es":"Texas ranchers on edge after screwworm parasite detected in calf - Reuters","pt":"Texas ranchers on edge after screwworm parasite detected in calf - Reuters"},"summary":{"en":"Public item selected because it can affect livestock movement, buyer access, and biosecurity: Texas ranchers on edge after screwworm parasite detected in calf - Reuters","es":"Ítem público seleccionado porque puede afectar movimiento, acceso de compradores y bioseguridad: Texas ranchers on edge after screwworm parasite detected in calf - Reuters","pt":"Item público selecionado porque pode afetar movimentação, acesso de compradores e biossegurança: Texas ranchers on edge after screwworm parasite detected in calf - Reuters"},"producerDecision":{"en":"Check movement, replacement purchases, and export-linked commitments before assuming normal buyer access.","es":"Revisar movimiento, reposición y compromisos exportadores antes de asumir acceso normal.","pt":"Revisar movimentação, reposição e compromissos exportadores antes de assumir acesso normal."},"sourceUrl":"https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiygFBVV95cUxQYWoyX0Yzc1NVbTI3YmZiRkUyUC1McjZRa3NVaElfN2lXd1RFaVd3QXhUZDVGUFB3bHFPMjg1cTJiRXlhRUNUaE5ad0tXLXl3QW4wcmpraGFaR2FnVE1SSmVBUktITHQ5VnU0UlBaenAxXzNobTI2ODd4bWZZYkdIQlM2emdtVWpJdUd3TGFPNF9EaXJwd0U3djQyM0ZHanVZaVNTS3R0QmpVdDFGcXVPc3kwdFJpUHdPSU52SW56bzVmZkNjZk1hckJR?oc=5","confidence":82},{"id":"google-news-rss-animal-health-texas-a-m-agrilife-responds-after-new-world-screwworm-found-in-texas-the-texas-a-m-u-2026-06-05","sourceName":"Google News public search RSS","category":{"en":"Animal health","es":"Sanidad animal","pt":"Sanidade animal"},"severity":"high","publishedAt":"2026-06-05T21:41:06.000Z","title":{"en":"Texas A&M AgriLife responds after New World screwworm found in Texas - The Texas A&M University System","es":"Texas A&M AgriLife responds after New World screwworm found in Texas - The Texas A&M University System","pt":"Texas A&M AgriLife responds after New World screwworm found in Texas - The Texas A&M University System"},"summary":{"en":"Public item selected because it can affect livestock movement, buyer access, and biosecurity: Texas A&M AgriLife responds after New World screwworm found in Texas - The Texas A&M University System","es":"Ítem público seleccionado porque puede afectar movimiento, acceso de compradores y bioseguridad: Texas A&M AgriLife responds after New World screwworm found in Texas - The Texas A&M University System","pt":"Item público selecionado porque pode afetar movimentação, acesso de compradores e biossegurança: Texas A&M AgriLife responds after New World screwworm found in Texas - The Texas A&M University System"},"producerDecision":{"en":"Check movement, replacement purchases, and export-linked commitments before assuming normal buyer access.","es":"Revisar movimiento, reposición y compromisos exportadores antes de asumir acceso normal.","pt":"Revisar movimentação, reposição e compromissos exportadores antes de assumir acesso normal."},"sourceUrl":"https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMioAFBVV95cUxOOHkzZWlXVFU2SjNRcnlZRm5jdEczNGFEdDZWckl4N3JOUjVyLXJkYVVFRUpzQ2JuSGxkOGRxVkpQYnAwX0RyUmh2WVNfeHN2aGx3VzdoQXB2WEZTLWFpOVdBbXZkX1ByaFlPTWRzaGJrRUZ3RFR4U0YyTzAtQzlKOHF4dW1LdjRIYVZDeFlkSVNtcjg1YmVfeWJBUE9CNDMx?oc=5","confidence":82},{"id":"gdelt-global-news-stuttgartdailyleader-com-uada-economist-screwworm-news-will-rattle-local-texas-new-mexico-cattle-markets-but--2026-06-05","sourceName":"GDELT Global Event Monitor","category":{"en":"Animal health","es":"Sanidad animal","pt":"Sanidade animal"},"severity":"high","publishedAt":"2026-06-05T18:45:00.000Z","title":{"en":"UADA economist : Screwworm news will rattle local Texas , New Mexico cattle markets , but consumer prices to remain unchanged","es":"UADA economist : Screwworm news will rattle local Texas , New Mexico cattle markets , but consumer prices to remain unchanged","pt":"UADA economist : Screwworm news will rattle local Texas , New Mexico cattle markets , but consumer prices to remain unchanged"},"summary":{"en":"Public event-stream item selected because it may affect livestock movement, buyer access, or biosecurity: UADA economist : Screwworm news will rattle local Texas , New Mexico cattle markets , but consumer prices to remain unchanged Prior public event carried forward because the live event stream did not complete in this update.","es":"Ítem público seleccionado porque puede afectar movimiento, acceso de compradores o bioseguridad: UADA economist : Screwworm news will rattle local Texas , New Mexico cattle markets , but consumer prices to remain unchanged Evento público previo mantenido porque la fuente en vivo no completó esta actualización.","pt":"Item público selecionado porque pode afetar movimentação, acesso de compradores ou biossegurança: UADA economist : Screwworm news will rattle local Texas , New Mexico cattle markets , but consumer prices to remain unchanged Evento público anterior mantido porque a fonte ao vivo não completou esta atualização."},"producerDecision":{"en":"Check movement, replacement purchases, and export-linked commitments before assuming normal buyer access.","es":"Revisar movimiento, reposición y compromisos exportadores antes de asumir acceso normal.","pt":"Revisar movimentação, reposição e compromissos exportadores antes de assumir acesso normal."},"sourceUrl":"https://www.stuttgartdailyleader.com/uada-economist-screwworm-news-will-rattle-local-texas-new-mexico-cattle-markets-but-consumer-prices-to-remain-unchanged/","confidence":40}]},{"regionId":"latin-america","regionName":{"en":"Latin America","es":"América Latina","pt":"América Latina"},"liveObservations":[{"id":"nasa-power-mato-grosso","sourceName":"NASA POWER","label":{"en":"Mato Grosso weather pressure","es":"Presión climática en Mato Grosso","pt":"Pressão climática em Mato Grosso"},"metric":"rainfall_7d_mm","value":1.6,"unit":"mm","observationDate":"2026-06-03","confidence":78,"producerRead":{"en":"Mato Grosso: 1.6 mm rain over the last week, 23.7 C average temperature, 78% humidity, and 1.4 m/s wind. Use this to judge pasture recovery, water checks, and sale timing.","es":"Mato Grosso: 1.6 mm de lluvia en la última semana, 23.7 C de temperatura media, 78% de humedad y 1.4 m/s de viento. Úsalo para revisar rebrote de pasto, agua y momento de venta.","pt":"Mato Grosso: 1.6 mm de chuva na última semana, 23.7 C de temperatura média, 78% de umidade e 1.4 m/s de vento. Use para avaliar pasto, água e momento de venda."},"sourceUrl":"https://power.larc.nasa.gov/api/temporal/daily/point?parameters=T2M%2CRH2M%2CPRECTOTCORR%2CWS2M&community=AG&longitude=-55.7&latitude=-12.6&start=20260528&end=20260603&format=JSON"},{"id":"open-meteo-forecast-mato-grosso","sourceName":"Open-Meteo global weather forecast","label":{"en":"Mato Grosso 7-day rain forecast","es":"Pronóstico de lluvia 7 días en Mato Grosso","pt":"Previsão de chuva 7 dias em Mato Grosso"},"metric":"open_meteo_7d_precip_forecast","value":1.5,"unit":"mm/week","observationDate":"2026-06-06 to 2026-06-12","confidence":79,"producerRead":{"en":"Mato Grosso: 1.5 mm rain forecast over 7 days, 7 dry days, 33.4 C air-temperature high, 35.5 C apparent high, and 17.8 C low. Use this before moving cattle, changing supplement, buying hay, or holding weight through the next gain window.","es":"Mato Grosso: 1.5 mm de lluvia previstos en 7 días, 7 días secos, máxima de aire de 33.4 C, sensación máxima de 35.5 C y mínima de 17.8 C. Úsalo antes de mover ganado, cambiar suplemento, comprar heno o retener peso en la próxima ventana de ganancia.","pt":"Mato Grosso: 1.5 mm de chuva previstos em 7 dias, 7 dias secos, máxima do ar de 33.4 C, sensação máxima de 35.5 C e mínima de 17.8 C. Use antes de mover gado, mudar suplemento, comprar feno ou reter peso na próxima janela de ganho."},"sourceUrl":"https://api.open-meteo.com/v1/forecast?latitude=-12.6&longitude=-55.7&daily=temperature_2m_max%2Ctemperature_2m_min%2Capparent_temperature_max%2Cprecipitation_sum%2Cet0_fao_evapotranspiration&forecast_days=7&timezone=auto"},{"id":"open-meteo-water-demand-mato-grosso","sourceName":"Open-Meteo global weather forecast","label":{"en":"Mato Grosso 7-day water demand forecast","es":"Demanda de agua 7 días en Mato Grosso","pt":"Demanda de água 7 dias em Mato Grosso"},"metric":"open_meteo_7d_water_demand_forecast","value":25.8,"unit":"mm/week","observationDate":"2026-06-06 to 2026-06-12","confidence":77,"producerRead":{"en":"Mato Grosso: 25.8 mm/week reference evapotranspiration and 35.5 C apparent-temperature high are forecast. Pair this with rainfall to judge water checks, shade, dairy heat stress, pasture recovery, and irrigation/feed-crop pressure.","es":"Mato Grosso: se prevén 25.8 mm/semana de evapotranspiración de referencia y 35.5 C de sensación máxima. Cruza esto con lluvia para revisar agua, sombra, estrés lechero, recuperación de pasto y presión de riego/cultivos de alimento.","pt":"Mato Grosso: estão previstos 25.8 mm/semana de evapotranspiração de referência e 35.5 C de sensação máxima. Cruze com chuva para checar água, sombra, estresse leiteiro, recuperação de pasto e pressão de irrigação/culturas para ração."},"sourceUrl":"https://api.open-meteo.com/v1/forecast?latitude=-12.6&longitude=-55.7&daily=temperature_2m_max%2Ctemperature_2m_min%2Capparent_temperature_max%2Cprecipitation_sum%2Cet0_fao_evapotranspiration&forecast_days=7&timezone=auto"},{"id":"open-meteo-forecast-sao-paulo","sourceName":"Open-Meteo global weather forecast","label":{"en":"São Paulo 7-day rain forecast","es":"Pronóstico de lluvia 7 días en São Paulo","pt":"Previsão de chuva 7 dias em São Paulo"},"metric":"open_meteo_7d_precip_forecast","value":54.9,"unit":"mm/week","observationDate":"2026-06-06 to 2026-06-12","confidence":75,"producerRead":{"en":"São Paulo: 54.9 mm rain forecast over 7 days, 4 dry days, 25.9 C air-temperature high, 25.8 C apparent high, and 12.1 C low. Use this before moving cattle, changing supplement, buying hay, or holding weight through the next gain window.","es":"São Paulo: 54.9 mm de lluvia previstos en 7 días, 4 días secos, máxima de aire de 25.9 C, sensación máxima de 25.8 C y mínima de 12.1 C. Úsalo antes de mover ganado, cambiar suplemento, comprar heno o retener peso en la próxima ventana de ganancia.","pt":"São Paulo: 54.9 mm de chuva previstos em 7 dias, 4 dias secos, máxima do ar de 25.9 C, sensação máxima de 25.8 C e mínima de 12.1 C. Use antes de mover gado, mudar suplemento, comprar feno ou reter peso na próxima janela de ganho."},"sourceUrl":"https://api.open-meteo.com/v1/forecast?latitude=-22.2&longitude=-48.8&daily=temperature_2m_max%2Ctemperature_2m_min%2Capparent_temperature_max%2Cprecipitation_sum%2Cet0_fao_evapotranspiration&forecast_days=7&timezone=auto"},{"id":"open-meteo-water-demand-sao-paulo","sourceName":"Open-Meteo global weather forecast","label":{"en":"São Paulo 7-day water demand forecast","es":"Demanda de agua 7 días en São Paulo","pt":"Demanda de água 7 dias em São Paulo"},"metric":"open_meteo_7d_water_demand_forecast","value":15.6,"unit":"mm/week","observationDate":"2026-06-06 to 2026-06-12","confidence":70,"producerRead":{"en":"São Paulo: 15.6 mm/week reference evapotranspiration and 25.8 C apparent-temperature high are forecast. Pair this with rainfall to judge water checks, shade, dairy heat stress, pasture recovery, and irrigation/feed-crop pressure.","es":"São Paulo: se prevén 15.6 mm/semana de evapotranspiración de referencia y 25.8 C de sensación máxima. Cruza esto con lluvia para revisar agua, sombra, estrés lechero, recuperación de pasto y presión de riego/cultivos de alimento.","pt":"São Paulo: estão previstos 15.6 mm/semana de evapotranspiração de referência e 25.8 C de sensação máxima. Cruze com chuva para checar água, sombra, estresse leiteiro, recuperação de pasto e pressão de irrigação/culturas para ração."},"sourceUrl":"https://api.open-meteo.com/v1/forecast?latitude=-22.2&longitude=-48.8&daily=temperature_2m_max%2Ctemperature_2m_min%2Capparent_temperature_max%2Cprecipitation_sum%2Cet0_fao_evapotranspiration&forecast_days=7&timezone=auto"},{"id":"open-meteo-forecast-northern-mexico","sourceName":"Open-Meteo global weather forecast","label":{"en":"Northern Mexico 7-day rain forecast","es":"Pronóstico de lluvia 7 días en Northern Mexico","pt":"Previsão de chuva 7 dias em Northern Mexico"},"metric":"open_meteo_7d_precip_forecast","value":0.4,"unit":"mm/week","observationDate":"2026-06-06 to 2026-06-12","confidence":79,"producerRead":{"en":"Northern Mexico: 0.4 mm rain forecast over 7 days, 7 dry days, 35.1 C air-temperature high, 34.5 C apparent high, and 17.2 C low. Use this before moving cattle, changing supplement, buying hay, or holding weight through the next gain window.","es":"Northern Mexico: 0.4 mm de lluvia previstos en 7 días, 7 días secos, máxima de aire de 35.1 C, sensación máxima de 34.5 C y mínima de 17.2 C. Úsalo antes de mover ganado, cambiar suplemento, comprar heno o retener peso en la próxima ventana de ganancia.","pt":"Northern Mexico: 0.4 mm de chuva previstos em 7 dias, 7 dias secos, máxima do ar de 35.1 C, sensação máxima de 34.5 C e mínima de 17.2 C. Use antes de mover gado, mudar suplemento, comprar feno ou reter peso na próxima janela de ganho."},"sourceUrl":"https://api.open-meteo.com/v1/forecast?latitude=28.6&longitude=-106.1&daily=temperature_2m_max%2Ctemperature_2m_min%2Capparent_temperature_max%2Cprecipitation_sum%2Cet0_fao_evapotranspiration&forecast_days=7&timezone=auto"},{"id":"open-meteo-water-demand-northern-mexico","sourceName":"Open-Meteo global weather forecast","label":{"en":"Northern Mexico 7-day water demand forecast","es":"Demanda de agua 7 días en Northern Mexico","pt":"Demanda de água 7 dias em Northern Mexico"},"metric":"open_meteo_7d_water_demand_forecast","value":55.5,"unit":"mm/week","observationDate":"2026-06-06 to 2026-06-12","confidence":81,"producerRead":{"en":"Northern Mexico: 55.5 mm/week reference evapotranspiration and 34.5 C apparent-temperature high are forecast. Pair this with rainfall to judge water checks, shade, dairy heat stress, pasture recovery, and irrigation/feed-crop pressure.","es":"Northern Mexico: se prevén 55.5 mm/semana de evapotranspiración de referencia y 34.5 C de sensación máxima. Cruza esto con lluvia para revisar agua, sombra, estrés lechero, recuperación de pasto y presión de riego/cultivos de alimento.","pt":"Northern Mexico: estão previstos 55.5 mm/semana de evapotranspiração de referência e 34.5 C de sensação máxima. Cruze com chuva para checar água, sombra, estresse leiteiro, recuperação de pasto e pressão de irrigação/culturas para ração."},"sourceUrl":"https://api.open-meteo.com/v1/forecast?latitude=28.6&longitude=-106.1&daily=temperature_2m_max%2Ctemperature_2m_min%2Capparent_temperature_max%2Cprecipitation_sum%2Cet0_fao_evapotranspiration&forecast_days=7&timezone=auto"},{"id":"open-meteo-forecast-pampas","sourceName":"Open-Meteo global weather forecast","label":{"en":"Pampas 7-day rain forecast","es":"Pronóstico de lluvia 7 días en Pampas","pt":"Previsão de chuva 7 dias em Pampas"},"metric":"open_meteo_7d_precip_forecast","value":3.6,"unit":"mm/week","observationDate":"2026-06-06 to 2026-06-12","confidence":79,"producerRead":{"en":"Pampas: 3.6 mm rain forecast over 7 days, 5 dry days, 18.1 C air-temperature high, 18.1 C apparent high, and 3.2 C low. Use this before moving cattle, changing supplement, buying hay, or holding weight through the next gain window.","es":"Pampas: 3.6 mm de lluvia previstos en 7 días, 5 días secos, máxima de aire de 18.1 C, sensación máxima de 18.1 C y mínima de 3.2 C. Úsalo antes de mover ganado, cambiar suplemento, comprar heno o retener peso en la próxima ventana de ganancia.","pt":"Pampas: 3.6 mm de chuva previstos em 7 dias, 5 dias secos, máxima do ar de 18.1 C, sensação máxima de 18.1 C e mínima de 3.2 C. Use antes de mover gado, mudar suplemento, comprar feno ou reter peso na próxima janela de ganho."},"sourceUrl":"https://api.open-meteo.com/v1/forecast?latitude=-36.5&longitude=-60&daily=temperature_2m_max%2Ctemperature_2m_min%2Capparent_temperature_max%2Cprecipitation_sum%2Cet0_fao_evapotranspiration&forecast_days=7&timezone=auto"},{"id":"open-meteo-water-demand-pampas","sourceName":"Open-Meteo global weather forecast","label":{"en":"Pampas 7-day water demand forecast","es":"Demanda de agua 7 días en Pampas","pt":"Demanda de água 7 dias em Pampas"},"metric":"open_meteo_7d_water_demand_forecast","value":7,"unit":"mm/week","observationDate":"2026-06-06 to 2026-06-12","confidence":70,"producerRead":{"en":"Pampas: 7.0 mm/week reference evapotranspiration and 18.1 C apparent-temperature high are forecast. Pair this with rainfall to judge water checks, shade, dairy heat stress, pasture recovery, and irrigation/feed-crop pressure.","es":"Pampas: se prevén 7.0 mm/semana de evapotranspiración de referencia y 18.1 C de sensación máxima. Cruza esto con lluvia para revisar agua, sombra, estrés lechero, recuperación de pasto y presión de riego/cultivos de alimento.","pt":"Pampas: estão previstos 7.0 mm/semana de evapotranspiração de referência e 18.1 C de sensação máxima. Cruze com chuva para checar água, sombra, estresse leiteiro, recuperação de pasto e pressão de irrigação/culturas para ração."},"sourceUrl":"https://api.open-meteo.com/v1/forecast?latitude=-36.5&longitude=-60&daily=temperature_2m_max%2Ctemperature_2m_min%2Capparent_temperature_max%2Cprecipitation_sum%2Cet0_fao_evapotranspiration&forecast_days=7&timezone=auto"},{"id":"open-meteo-forecast-colombia-llanos","sourceName":"Open-Meteo global weather forecast","label":{"en":"Colombian Llanos 7-day rain forecast","es":"Pronóstico de lluvia 7 días en Colombian Llanos","pt":"Previsão de chuva 7 dias em Colombian Llanos"},"metric":"open_meteo_7d_precip_forecast","value":95.2,"unit":"mm/week","observationDate":"2026-06-06 to 2026-06-12","confidence":79,"producerRead":{"en":"Colombian Llanos: 95.2 mm rain forecast over 7 days, 0 dry days, 30.9 C air-temperature high, 35.0 C apparent high, and 22.2 C low. Use this before moving cattle, changing supplement, buying hay, or holding weight through the next gain window.","es":"Colombian Llanos: 95.2 mm de lluvia previstos en 7 días, 0 días secos, máxima de aire de 30.9 C, sensación máxima de 35.0 C y mínima de 22.2 C. Úsalo antes de mover ganado, cambiar suplemento, comprar heno o retener peso en la próxima ventana de ganancia.","pt":"Colombian Llanos: 95.2 mm de chuva previstos em 7 dias, 0 dias secos, máxima do ar de 30.9 C, sensação máxima de 35.0 C e mínima de 22.2 C. Use antes de mover gado, mudar suplemento, comprar feno ou reter peso na próxima janela de ganho."},"sourceUrl":"https://api.open-meteo.com/v1/forecast?latitude=4&longitude=-72.5&daily=temperature_2m_max%2Ctemperature_2m_min%2Capparent_temperature_max%2Cprecipitation_sum%2Cet0_fao_evapotranspiration&forecast_days=7&timezone=auto"}],"driverImpacts":[{"id":"comex-brazil-beef-export-value-trade-flow-impact","sectors":["beef","feed","crops"],"severity":"high","confidence":91,"title":{"en":"Brazil beef export value changes Brazil trade pressure","es":"Valor exportado de carne bovina Brasil cambia la presion comercial de Brasil","pt":"Valor exportado de carne bovina Brasil muda a pressao comercial do Brasil"},"signal":{"en":"1,704 USD million in the latest official Comex Stat export flow. Beef export flow is a clean monthly read on processor bid support and local basis pressure.","es":"1,704 millones USD en el flujo exportador oficial reciente de Comex Stat. El flujo exportador de carne mide soporte frigorifico mensual y presion de base local.","pt":"1,704 US$ milhões no fluxo oficial recente de exportacao do Comex Stat. Fluxo exportador de carne mede suporte mensal de frigorifico e pressao de base local."},"affects":{"en":"Processor bids, state basis, destination risk, freight corridors, local sale windows, and export-sensitive cattle lots.","es":"Ofertas frigorificas, base estatal, riesgo de destino, corredores de flete, ventana local de venta y lotes sensibles a exportacion.","pt":"Preco de frigorifico, base estadual, risco de destino, corredores de frete, janela local de venda e lotes sensiveis a exportacao."},"producerDecision":{"en":"Price sale timing with local bids, USD/BRL, destination concentration, and pasture days instead of trusting a single national price headline.","es":"Valuar venta con ofertas locales, USD/BRL, concentracion de destino y dias de pasto, no solo con un titular nacional.","pt":"Precificar venda com preco local, USD/BRL, concentracao de destino e dias de pasto, nao so com manchete nacional."},"sourceIds":["comex-stat"]},{"id":"comex-brazil-beef-export-volume-trade-flow-impact","sectors":["beef","feed","crops"],"severity":"high","confidence":91,"title":{"en":"Brazil beef export volume changes Brazil trade pressure","es":"Volumen exportado de carne bovina Brasil cambia la presion comercial de Brasil","pt":"Volume exportado de carne bovina Brasil muda a pressao comercial do Brasil"},"signal":{"en":"261.9 thousand tonnes in the latest official Comex Stat export flow. Beef export flow is a clean monthly read on processor bid support and local basis pressure.","es":"261.9 mil toneladas en el flujo exportador oficial reciente de Comex Stat. El flujo exportador de carne mide soporte frigorifico mensual y presion de base local.","pt":"261.9 mil toneladas no fluxo oficial recente de exportacao do Comex Stat. Fluxo exportador de carne mede suporte mensal de frigorifico e pressao de base local."},"affects":{"en":"Processor bids, state basis, destination risk, freight corridors, local sale windows, and export-sensitive cattle lots.","es":"Ofertas frigorificas, base estatal, riesgo de destino, corredores de flete, ventana local de venta y lotes sensibles a exportacion.","pt":"Preco de frigorifico, base estadual, risco de destino, corredores de frete, janela local de venda e lotes sensiveis a exportacao."},"producerDecision":{"en":"Price sale timing with local bids, USD/BRL, destination concentration, and pasture days instead of trusting a single national price headline.","es":"Valuar venta con ofertas locales, USD/BRL, concentracion de destino y dias de pasto, no solo con un titular nacional.","pt":"Precificar venda com preco local, USD/BRL, concentracao de destino e dias de pasto, nao so com manchete nacional."},"sourceIds":["comex-stat"]},{"id":"comex-brazil-beef-china-share-trade-flow-impact","sectors":["beef","feed","crops"],"severity":"high","confidence":91,"title":{"en":"China share of Brazil beef exports changes Brazil trade pressure","es":"Participacion de China en carne bovina Brasil cambia la presion comercial de Brasil","pt":"Participacao da China na carne bovina Brasil muda a pressao comercial do Brasil"},"signal":{"en":"61.4 % in the latest official Comex Stat export flow. Destination or state concentration can support bids while increasing disruption risk if access, sanitary rules, currency, or freight changes.","es":"61.4 % en el flujo exportador oficial reciente de Comex Stat. La concentracion por destino o estado puede sostener ofertas y subir riesgo si cambian acceso, sanidad, cambio o flete.","pt":"61.4 % no fluxo oficial recente de exportacao do Comex Stat. Concentracao por destino ou estado pode sustentar preco e elevar risco se mudarem acesso, sanidade, cambio ou frete."},"affects":{"en":"Processor bids, state basis, destination risk, freight corridors, local sale windows, and export-sensitive cattle lots.","es":"Ofertas frigorificas, base estatal, riesgo de destino, corredores de flete, ventana local de venta y lotes sensibles a exportacion.","pt":"Preco de frigorifico, base estadual, risco de destino, corredores de frete, janela local de venda e lotes sensiveis a exportacao."},"producerDecision":{"en":"Price sale timing with local bids, USD/BRL, destination concentration, and pasture days instead of trusting a single national price headline.","es":"Valuar venta con ofertas locales, USD/BRL, concentracion de destino y dias de pasto, no solo con un titular nacional.","pt":"Precificar venda com preco local, USD/BRL, concentracao de destino e dias de pasto, nao so com manchete nacional."},"sourceIds":["comex-stat"]},{"id":"usda-wasde-argentina-corn-stocks-monthly-balance-impact","sectors":["feed","beef","dairy","crops"],"severity":"high","confidence":90,"title":{"en":"Argentina corn ending stocks changes the monthly feed and supply read","es":"Argentina existencias finales de maiz cambia la lectura mensual de alimento y oferta","pt":"Argentina estoques finais de milho muda a leitura mensal de racao e oferta"},"signal":{"en":"3.5 million tonnes in the May 2026 WASDE for 2026/27; -7.9% versus 2025/26. This is the official monthly bridge from crop/feed balance to cattle, milk, and sale timing.","es":"3.5 millones de toneladas en el WASDE May 2026 para 2026/27; -7.9% versus 2025/26. Es el puente mensual oficial entre balance de alimento, ganado, leche y momento de venta.","pt":"3.5 milhoes de toneladas no WASDE May 2026 para 2026/27; -7.9% versus 2025/26. E a ponte mensal oficial entre balanco de racao, gado, leite e venda."},"affects":{"en":"Delivered feed cost, ration coverage, hay substitution, crop-to-cattle margin, feeder bids, and whether retained weight still pays.","es":"Costo de alimento entregado, cobertura de racion, sustitucion de heno, margen cultivo-ganado, invernada y si retener kilos paga.","pt":"Custo de racao entregue, cobertura da dieta, substituicao de feno, margem lavoura-gado, recria e se peso retido paga."},"producerDecision":{"en":"Put the WASDE revision beside local corn, meal, hay, freight, and weather before buying feed, buying feeders, or holding cattle for more gain.","es":"Poner la revision WASDE junto a maiz local, harina, heno, flete y clima antes de comprar alimento, invernada o retener kilos.","pt":"Colocar a revisao WASDE junto de milho local, farelo, feno, frete e clima antes de comprar racao, recria ou reter peso."},"sourceIds":["usda-wasde"]},{"id":"usda-wasde-argentina-soymeal-stocks-monthly-balance-impact","sectors":["feed","beef","dairy","crops"],"severity":"high","confidence":90,"title":{"en":"Argentina soybean meal ending stocks changes the monthly feed and supply read","es":"Argentina existencias finales de harina de soja cambia la lectura mensual de alimento y oferta","pt":"Argentina estoques finais de farelo de soja muda a leitura mensal de racao e oferta"},"signal":{"en":"2.8 million tonnes in the May 2026 WASDE for 2026/27; +11.3% versus 2025/26. This is the official monthly bridge from crop/feed balance to cattle, milk, and sale timing.","es":"2.8 millones de toneladas en el WASDE May 2026 para 2026/27; +11.3% versus 2025/26. Es el puente mensual oficial entre balance de alimento, ganado, leche y momento de venta.","pt":"2.8 milhoes de toneladas no WASDE May 2026 para 2026/27; +11.3% versus 2025/26. E a ponte mensal oficial entre balanco de racao, gado, leite e venda."},"affects":{"en":"Delivered feed cost, ration coverage, hay substitution, crop-to-cattle margin, feeder bids, and whether retained weight still pays.","es":"Costo de alimento entregado, cobertura de racion, sustitucion de heno, margen cultivo-ganado, invernada y si retener kilos paga.","pt":"Custo de racao entregue, cobertura da dieta, substituicao de feno, margem lavoura-gado, recria e se peso retido paga."},"producerDecision":{"en":"Put the WASDE revision beside local corn, meal, hay, freight, and weather before buying feed, buying feeders, or holding cattle for more gain.","es":"Poner la revision WASDE junto a maiz local, harina, heno, flete y clima antes de comprar alimento, invernada o retener kilos.","pt":"Colocar a revisao WASDE junto de milho local, farelo, feno, frete e clima antes de comprar racao, recria ou reter peso."},"sourceIds":["usda-wasde"]},{"id":"fas-psd-ar-cattle-balance-sheet-impact","sectors":["beef","dairy","feed"],"severity":"high","confidence":90,"title":{"en":"Argentina PSD cattle herd and slaughter updates the long-cycle supply read","es":"Argentina PSD hato y faena bovina actualiza la lectura de oferta de ciclo largo","pt":"Argentina PSD rebanho e abate bovino atualiza a leitura de oferta de ciclo longo"},"signal":{"en":"52,420 thousand head in USDA FAS PSD for Argentina. The balance sheet is +1.6% versus 2025, so read it against local prices instead of treating daily headlines as isolated events.","es":"52,420 thousand head en USDA FAS PSD para Argentina. El balance es +1.6% versus 2025; leerlo contra precios locales en vez de tratar titulares diarios como eventos aislados.","pt":"52,420 thousand head no USDA FAS PSD para Argentina. O balanco e +1.6% versus 2025; leia contra precos locais em vez de tratar manchetes diarias como eventos isolados."},"affects":{"en":"Replacement supply, cow retention, slaughter availability, feeder flow, and the long-cycle floor under cattle prices.","es":"Reposicion, retencion de vacas, disponibilidad de faena, flujo de invernada y piso de ciclo largo del precio.","pt":"Reposicao, retencao de matrizes, disponibilidade de abate, fluxo de recria e piso de ciclo longo do preco."},"producerDecision":{"en":"Use the PSD herd balance before retaining replacements, buying feeders, or assuming local supply will stay loose or tight.","es":"Usar el balance PSD del hato antes de retener reposicion, comprar invernada o asumir oferta local floja o ajustada.","pt":"Usar o balanco PSD do rebanho antes de reter reposicao, comprar recria ou assumir oferta local frouxa ou apertada."},"sourceIds":["usda-fas"]},{"id":"fas-psd-ar-milk-fluid-balance-sheet-impact","sectors":["dairy","feed"],"severity":"high","confidence":90,"title":{"en":"Argentina PSD fluid milk and dairy cow supply updates the long-cycle supply read","es":"Argentina PSD leche fluida y vacas lecheras actualiza la lectura de oferta de ciclo largo","pt":"Argentina PSD leite fluido e vacas leiteiras atualiza a leitura de oferta de ciclo longo"},"signal":{"en":"11,950 thousand mt in USDA FAS PSD for Argentina. The balance sheet is +4.0% versus 2025, so read it against local prices instead of treating daily headlines as isolated events.","es":"11,950 miles de t en USDA FAS PSD para Argentina. El balance es +4.0% versus 2025; leerlo contra precios locales en vez de tratar titulares diarios como eventos aislados.","pt":"11,950 mil t no USDA FAS PSD para Argentina. O balanco e +4.0% versus 2025; leia contra precos locais em vez de tratar manchetes diarias como eventos isolados."},"affects":{"en":"Milk supply, dairy cull timing, dairy-beef flow, ration demand, heat-risk sensitivity, and replacement appetite.","es":"Oferta de leche, descarte lechero, carne de origen lechero, demanda de racion, sensibilidad al calor y reposicion.","pt":"Oferta de leite, descarte leiteiro, carne de origem leiteira, demanda de racao, sensibilidade ao calor e reposicao."},"producerDecision":{"en":"Put the PSD milk read beside feed cost, heat, and local milk price before changing cull timing or expansion plans.","es":"Poner PSD leche junto a alimento, calor y precio local antes de cambiar descarte o expansion.","pt":"Colocar PSD leite junto de custo de racao, calor e preco local antes de mudar descarte ou expansao."},"sourceIds":["usda-fas"]},{"id":"fas-psd-ar-sorghum-feed-balance-sheet-impact","sectors":["feed","crops","beef","dairy"],"severity":"high","confidence":90,"title":{"en":"Argentina PSD sorghum feed balance updates the long-cycle supply read","es":"Argentina PSD balance de sorgo para alimento actualiza la lectura de oferta de ciclo largo","pt":"Argentina PSD balanço de sorgo para ração atualiza a leitura de oferta de ciclo longo"},"signal":{"en":"1,200 thousand mt in USDA FAS PSD for Argentina. The balance sheet is +9.1% versus 2025, so read it against local prices instead of treating daily headlines as isolated events.","es":"1,200 miles de t en USDA FAS PSD para Argentina. El balance es +9.1% versus 2025; leerlo contra precios locales en vez de tratar titulares diarios como eventos aislados.","pt":"1,200 mil t no USDA FAS PSD para Argentina. O balanco e +9.1% versus 2025; leia contra precos locais em vez de tratar manchetes diarias como eventos isolados."},"affects":{"en":"Feed availability, import exposure, ration coverage, feeder bids, retained-weight economics, and crop-to-cattle margin.","es":"Disponibilidad de alimento, exposicion importadora, cobertura de racion, invernada, kilos retenidos y margen cultivo-ganado.","pt":"Disponibilidade de racao, exposicao a importacao, cobertura de dieta, recria, peso retido e margem lavoura-gado."},"producerDecision":{"en":"Use the PSD feed balance with delivered corn, meal, hay, freight, and weather before locking ration coverage or holding cattle for more gain.","es":"Usar el balance PSD de alimento con maiz entregado, harina, heno, flete y clima antes de cubrir racion o retener kilos.","pt":"Usar o balanco PSD de racao com milho entregue, farelo, feno, frete e clima antes de cobrir dieta ou reter peso."},"sourceIds":["usda-fas"]}],"temporalSignals":[{"id":"nasa-power-mato-grosso-rainfall-baseline","sourceName":"NASA POWER","metric":"rainfall_vs_prior_30d","currentValue":1.6,"baselineValue":3.8,"changePercent":-58,"direction":"tightening","confidence":82,"title":{"en":"Mato Grosso rainfall against the prior 30 days","es":"Lluvia en Mato Grosso contra los 30 días previos","pt":"Chuva em Mato Grosso contra os 30 dias anteriores"},"signal":{"en":"Mato Grosso received 1.6 mm in the latest 7-day window versus a prior 30-day pace of 3.8 mm/week.","es":"Mato Grosso recibió 1.6 mm en los últimos 7 días contra un ritmo previo de 3.8 mm/semana.","pt":"Mato Grosso recebeu 1.6 mm nos últimos 7 dias contra ritmo anterior de 3.8 mm/semana."},"producerDecision":{"en":"Compare the next 2-8 weeks of forage against feed cost before holding cattle for more weight.","es":"Comparar las próximas 2-8 semanas de forraje contra costo de alimento antes de retener ganado.","pt":"Comparar as próximas 2-8 semanas de pasto contra custo de ração antes de reter gado."},"sourceUrl":"https://power.larc.nasa.gov/api/temporal/daily/point?parameters=T2M%2CPRECTOTCORR&community=AG&longitude=-55.7&latitude=-12.6&start=20260428&end=20260603&format=JSON"},{"id":"bcb-usd-brl-30d-baseline","sourceName":"Banco Central do Brasil SGS","metric":"usd_brl_vs_30d_average","currentValue":5.1244,"baselineValue":4.9742,"changePercent":3.02,"direction":"tightening","confidence":83,"title":{"en":"USD/BRL against the recent trading range","es":"USD/BRL contra el rango reciente","pt":"USD/BRL contra a faixa recente"},"signal":{"en":"USD/BRL is 5.1244 versus a recent average of 4.9742.","es":"USD/BRL está en 5.1244 contra un promedio reciente de 4.9742.","pt":"USD/BRL está em 5.1244 contra média recente de 4.9742."},"producerDecision":{"en":"Run sale timing and input purchases through a local-currency and dollar-linked margin view.","es":"Pasar venta e insumos por una visión de margen en moneda local y vinculada al dólar.","pt":"Passar venda e insumos por uma visão de margem em moeda local e ligada ao dólar."},"sourceUrl":"https://api.bcb.gov.br/dados/serie/bcdata.sgs.1/dados?formato=json&dataInicial=22%2F04%2F2026&dataFinal=06%2F06%2F2026"}],"marketEvents":[{"id":"gdelt-global-news-internazionale-it-screwworm-border-closure-fuels-beef-boom-in-mexico-gloom-in-texas-2026-06-06","sourceName":"GDELT Global Event Monitor","category":{"en":"Animal health","es":"Sanidad animal","pt":"Sanidade animal"},"severity":"high","publishedAt":"2026-06-06T10:45:00.000Z","title":{"en":"Screwworm border closure fuels beef boom in Mexico , gloom in Texas","es":"Screwworm border closure fuels beef boom in Mexico , gloom in Texas","pt":"Screwworm border closure fuels beef boom in Mexico , gloom in Texas"},"summary":{"en":"Public event-stream item selected because it may affect livestock movement, buyer access, or biosecurity: Screwworm border closure fuels beef boom in Mexico , gloom in Texas Prior public event carried forward because the live event stream did not complete in this update.","es":"Ítem público seleccionado porque puede afectar movimiento, acceso de compradores o bioseguridad: Screwworm border closure fuels beef boom in Mexico , gloom in Texas Evento público previo mantenido porque la fuente en vivo no completó esta actualización.","pt":"Item público selecionado porque pode afetar movimentação, acesso de compradores ou biossegurança: Screwworm border closure fuels beef boom in Mexico , gloom in Texas Evento público anterior mantido porque a fonte ao vivo não completou esta atualização."},"producerDecision":{"en":"Check movement, replacement purchases, and export-linked commitments before assuming normal buyer access.","es":"Revisar movimiento, reposición y compromisos exportadores antes de asumir acceso normal.","pt":"Revisar movimentação, reposição e compromissos exportadores antes de assumir acesso normal."},"sourceUrl":"https://www.internazionale.it/ultime-notizie-reuters/2026/06/06/screwworm-border-closure-fuels-beef-boom-in-mexico-gloom-in-texas","confidence":40},{"id":"google-news-rss-animal-health-new-mexico-on-edge-for-livestock-infections-as-screwworm-hits-texas-santa-fe-new-mex-2026-06-05","sourceName":"Google News public search RSS","category":{"en":"Animal health","es":"Sanidad animal","pt":"Sanidade animal"},"severity":"high","publishedAt":"2026-06-05T01:30:00.000Z","title":{"en":"New Mexico on edge for livestock infections as screwworm hits Texas - Santa Fe New Mexican","es":"New Mexico on edge for livestock infections as screwworm hits Texas - Santa Fe New Mexican","pt":"New Mexico on edge for livestock infections as screwworm hits Texas - Santa Fe New Mexican"},"summary":{"en":"Public item selected because it can affect livestock movement, buyer access, and biosecurity: New Mexico on edge for livestock infections as screwworm hits Texas - Santa Fe New Mexican","es":"Ítem público seleccionado porque puede afectar movimiento, acceso de compradores y bioseguridad: New Mexico on edge for livestock infections as screwworm hits Texas - Santa Fe New Mexican","pt":"Item público selecionado porque pode afetar movimentação, acesso de compradores e biossegurança: New Mexico on edge for livestock infections as screwworm hits Texas - Santa Fe New Mexican"},"producerDecision":{"en":"Check movement, replacement purchases, and export-linked commitments before assuming normal buyer access.","es":"Revisar movimiento, reposición y compromisos exportadores antes de asumir acceso normal.","pt":"Revisar movimentação, reposição e compromissos exportadores antes de assumir acesso normal."},"sourceUrl":"https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMi-wFBVV95cUxPcGtCeXhmLXlaZGJEOHlBZDE0THNfLUUwTmxnTU5XZHJFaWpGTjJsa2R3dW9iTUVmZnVjQjVDbnJFeEJ0NHl5MTlBZGdyMVlBVmFCNm9EdFhuZFRablY2Wkw2V0dCRWFvMm9DQnhmQTBEeWdtNFlrRDUya25MLVpiaFllT3N0ZzhqMUFtOGxNcU1lX3doVW9uc01mNTJHcGtzUmJKWWlJQmRhcDh3Qkx3VVRkaUNHbHJ2Q0xEakYxbnNGNnJZekpZYUFPZDVvdDhKZXQ4aHNnY3piUE5BMi1VTHVjLUVvNHpoQ2Uza2puS3h4RG9YdGVsODdqQQ?oc=5","confidence":82},{"id":"beefcentral-news-rss-mexican-screwworm-fly-crosses-us-border-into-texas-2026-06-04","sourceName":"Beef Central","category":{"en":"Animal health","es":"Sanidad animal","pt":"Sanidade animal"},"severity":"high","publishedAt":"2026-06-04T04:19:28.000Z","title":{"en":"Mexican screwworm fly crosses US border into Texas","es":"Mexican screwworm fly crosses US border into Texas","pt":"Mexican screwworm fly crosses US border into Texas"},"summary":{"en":"The flesh-eating New World Screwworm fly has crossed the border between Mexico and the United States, the US Department of Agriculture has confirmed overnight.","es":"The flesh-eating New World Screwworm fly has crossed the border between Mexico and the United States, the US Department of Agriculture has confirmed overnight.","pt":"The flesh-eating New World Screwworm fly has crossed the border between Mexico and the United States, the US Department of Agriculture has confirmed overnight."},"producerDecision":{"en":"Check movement, replacement purchases, and export-linked commitments before assuming normal buyer access.","es":"Revisar movimiento, reposición y compromisos exportadores antes de asumir acceso normal.","pt":"Revisar movimentação, reposição e compromissos exportadores antes de assumir acesso normal."},"sourceUrl":"https://www.beefcentral.com/news/mexican-screwworm-fly-crosses-us-border-into-texas/","confidence":82},{"id":"fao-newsroom-rss-fao-report-highlights-long-term-economic-case-for-tackling-antimicrobial-resistance--2026-06-03","sourceName":"FAO Newsroom","category":{"en":"Animal health","es":"Sanidad animal","pt":"Sanidade animal"},"severity":"high","publishedAt":"2026-06-03T12:00:00.000Z","title":{"en":"FAO report highlights long-term economic case for tackling antimicrobial resistance in livestock","es":"FAO report highlights long-term economic case for tackling antimicrobial resistance in livestock","pt":"FAO report highlights long-term economic case for tackling antimicrobial resistance in livestock"},"summary":{"en":"Public item selected because it can affect livestock movement, buyer access, and biosecurity: FAO report highlights long-term economic case for tackling antimicrobial resistance in livestock","es":"Ítem público seleccionado porque puede afectar movimiento, acceso de compradores y bioseguridad: FAO report highlights long-term economic case for tackling antimicrobial resistance in livestock","pt":"Item público selecionado porque pode afetar movimentação, acesso de compradores e biossegurança: FAO report highlights long-term economic case for tackling antimicrobial resistance in livestock"},"producerDecision":{"en":"Check movement, replacement purchases, and export-linked commitments before assuming normal buyer access.","es":"Revisar movimiento, reposición y compromisos exportadores antes de asumir acceso normal.","pt":"Revisar movimentação, reposição e compromissos exportadores antes de assumir acesso normal."},"sourceUrl":"https://www.fao.org/newsroom/detail/fao-report-highlights-long-term-economic-case-for-tackling-antimicrobial-resistance-in-livestock/en","confidence":82},{"id":"fao-newsroom-rss-strait-of-hormuz-time-running-out-to-avert-global-food-security-crisis-fao-warns-2026-05-26","sourceName":"FAO Newsroom","category":{"en":"Conflict and logistics","es":"Conflicto y logística","pt":"Conflito e logística"},"severity":"high","publishedAt":"2026-05-26T12:00:00.000Z","title":{"en":"Strait of Hormuz: Time running out to avert global food security crisis, FAO warns","es":"Strait of Hormuz: Time running out to avert global food security crisis, FAO warns","pt":"Strait of Hormuz: Time running out to avert global food security crisis, FAO warns"},"summary":{"en":"Public item selected because war, sanctions, ports, canals, or shipping routes can change delivered feed, fertilizer, fuel, freight, and buyer access: Strait of Hormuz: Time running out to avert global food security crisis, FAO warns","es":"Ítem público seleccionado porque guerra, sanciones, puertos, canales o rutas marítimas pueden cambiar alimento entregado, fertilizante, combustible, flete y compradores: Strait of Hormuz: Time running out to avert global food security crisis, FAO warns","pt":"Item público selecionado porque guerra, sanções, portos, canais ou rotas marítimas podem mudar ração entregue, fertilizante, combustível, frete e compradores: Strait of Hormuz: Time running out to avert global food security crisis, FAO warns"},"producerDecision":{"en":"Check delivered feed, fertilizer, fuel, freight, and route exposure before holding cattle longer or locking crop-input purchases.","es":"Revisar alimento entregado, fertilizante, combustible, flete y rutas antes de retener ganado o fijar insumos.","pt":"Revisar ração entregue, fertilizante, combustível, frete e rotas antes de reter gado ou travar insumos."},"sourceUrl":"https://www.fao.org/newsroom/detail/strait-of-hormuz--time-running-out-to-avert-global-food-security-crisis--fao-warns/en","confidence":82},{"id":"fao-newsroom-rss-strait-of-hormuz-conflict-threatens-global-food-prices-as-fao-warns-time-is-running--2026-05-20","sourceName":"FAO Newsroom","category":{"en":"Conflict and logistics","es":"Conflicto y logística","pt":"Conflito e logística"},"severity":"high","publishedAt":"2026-05-20T12:00:00.000Z","title":{"en":"Strait of Hormuz conflict threatens global food prices as FAO warns time is running out","es":"Strait of Hormuz conflict threatens global food prices as FAO warns time is running out","pt":"Strait of Hormuz conflict threatens global food prices as FAO warns time is running out"},"summary":{"en":"Public item selected because war, sanctions, ports, canals, or shipping routes can change delivered feed, fertilizer, fuel, freight, and buyer access: Strait of Hormuz conflict threatens global food prices as FAO warns time is running out","es":"Ítem público seleccionado porque guerra, sanciones, puertos, canales o rutas marítimas pueden cambiar alimento entregado, fertilizante, combustible, flete y compradores: Strait of Hormuz conflict threatens global food prices as FAO warns time is running out","pt":"Item público selecionado porque guerra, sanções, portos, canais ou rotas marítimas podem mudar ração entregue, fertilizante, combustível, frete e compradores: Strait of Hormuz conflict threatens global food prices as FAO warns time is running out"},"producerDecision":{"en":"Check delivered feed, fertilizer, fuel, freight, and route exposure before holding cattle longer or locking crop-input purchases.","es":"Revisar alimento entregado, fertilizante, combustible, flete y rutas antes de retener ganado o fijar insumos.","pt":"Revisar ração entregue, fertilizante, combustível, frete e rotas antes de reter gado ou travar insumos."},"sourceUrl":"https://www.fao.org/newsroom/detail/strait-of-hormuz-conflict-threatens-global-food-prices-as-fao-warns-time-is-running-out/en","confidence":82},{"id":"fao-newsroom-rss-strait-of-hormuz-crisis-fertilizer-scarcity-will-affect-next-harvests-and-food-suppl-2026-05-07","sourceName":"FAO Newsroom","category":{"en":"Conflict and logistics","es":"Conflicto y logística","pt":"Conflito e logística"},"severity":"high","publishedAt":"2026-05-07T12:00:00.000Z","title":{"en":"Strait of Hormuz crisis: Fertilizer scarcity will affect next harvests and food supplies, FAO warns","es":"Strait of Hormuz crisis: Fertilizer scarcity will affect next harvests and food supplies, FAO warns","pt":"Strait of Hormuz crisis: Fertilizer scarcity will affect next harvests and food supplies, FAO warns"},"summary":{"en":"Public item selected because war, sanctions, ports, canals, or shipping routes can change delivered feed, fertilizer, fuel, freight, and buyer access: Strait of Hormuz crisis: Fertilizer scarcity will affect next harvests and food supplies, FAO warns","es":"Ítem público seleccionado porque guerra, sanciones, puertos, canales o rutas marítimas pueden cambiar alimento entregado, fertilizante, combustible, flete y compradores: Strait of Hormuz crisis: Fertilizer scarcity will affect next harvests and food supplies, FAO warns","pt":"Item público selecionado porque guerra, sanções, portos, canais ou rotas marítimas podem mudar ração entregue, fertilizante, combustível, frete e compradores: Strait of Hormuz crisis: Fertilizer scarcity will affect next harvests and food supplies, FAO warns"},"producerDecision":{"en":"Check delivered feed, fertilizer, fuel, freight, and route exposure before holding cattle longer or locking crop-input purchases.","es":"Revisar alimento entregado, fertilizante, combustible, flete y rutas antes de retener ganado o fijar insumos.","pt":"Revisar ração entregue, fertilizante, combustível, frete e rotas antes de reter gado ou travar insumos."},"sourceUrl":"https://www.fao.org/newsroom/detail/strait-of-hormuz-crisis--fertilizer-scarcity-will-affect-next-harvests-and-food-supplies--fao-warns/en","confidence":82},{"id":"google-news-rss-brazil-beef-dairy-markets-preco-do-boi-gordo-termina-semana-estavel-em-patamar-alto-globo-rural-2026-06-06","sourceName":"Google News public search RSS","category":{"en":"Cattle supply","es":"Oferta ganadera","pt":"Oferta pecuária"},"severity":"medium","publishedAt":"2026-06-06T09:30:37.000Z","title":{"en":"Preço do boi gordo termina semana estável, em patamar alto - Globo Rural","es":"Preço do boi gordo termina semana estável, em patamar alto - Globo Rural","pt":"Preço do boi gordo termina semana estável, em patamar alto - Globo Rural"},"summary":{"en":"Public item selected because livestock supply or meat availability can change sale timing and buyer leverage: Preço do boi gordo termina semana estável, em patamar alto - Globo Rural","es":"Ítem público seleccionado porque oferta ganadera o disponibilidad de carne puede cambiar ventas y poder del comprador: Preço do boi gordo termina semana estável, em patamar alto - Globo Rural","pt":"Item público selecionado porque oferta pecuária ou disponibilidade de carne pode mudar venda e poder do comprador: Preço do boi gordo termina semana estável, em patamar alto - Globo Rural"},"producerDecision":{"en":"Tie inventory and placement changes to local basis, feed availability, and sale window math.","es":"Conectar inventario y colocaciones con base local, alimento y ventana de venta.","pt":"Conectar estoque e entradas com base local, ração e janela de venda."},"sourceUrl":"https://news.google.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?oc=5","confidence":78}]},{"regionId":"oceania","regionName":{"en":"Oceania","es":"Oceanía","pt":"Oceania"},"liveObservations":[{"id":"nasa-power-queensland","sourceName":"NASA POWER","label":{"en":"Queensland weather pressure","es":"Presión climática en Queensland","pt":"Pressão climática em Queensland"},"metric":"rainfall_7d_mm","value":0,"unit":"mm","observationDate":"2026-06-03","confidence":78,"producerRead":{"en":"Queensland: 0.0 mm rain over the last week, 17.7 C average temperature, 49% humidity, and 1.8 m/s wind. Use this to judge pasture recovery, water checks, and sale timing.","es":"Queensland: 0.0 mm de lluvia en la última semana, 17.7 C de temperatura media, 49% de humedad y 1.8 m/s de viento. Úsalo para revisar rebrote de pasto, agua y momento de venta.","pt":"Queensland: 0.0 mm de chuva na última semana, 17.7 C de temperatura média, 49% de umidade e 1.8 m/s de vento. Use para avaliar pasto, água e momento de venda."},"sourceUrl":"https://power.larc.nasa.gov/api/temporal/daily/point?parameters=T2M%2CRH2M%2CPRECTOTCORR%2CWS2M&community=AG&longitude=144.5&latitude=-22.6&start=20260528&end=20260603&format=JSON"},{"id":"nasa-power-waikato","sourceName":"NASA POWER","label":{"en":"Waikato weather pressure","es":"Presión climática en Waikato","pt":"Pressão climática em Waikato"},"metric":"rainfall_7d_mm","value":33,"unit":"mm","observationDate":"2026-06-03","confidence":70,"producerRead":{"en":"Waikato: 33.0 mm rain over the last week, 14.0 C average temperature, 89% humidity, and 3.1 m/s wind. Use this to judge pasture recovery, water checks, and sale timing.","es":"Waikato: 33.0 mm de lluvia en la última semana, 14.0 C de temperatura media, 89% de humedad y 3.1 m/s de viento. Úsalo para revisar rebrote de pasto, agua y momento de venta.","pt":"Waikato: 33.0 mm de chuva na última semana, 14.0 C de temperatura média, 89% de umidade e 3.1 m/s de vento. Use para avaliar pasto, água e momento de venda."},"sourceUrl":"https://power.larc.nasa.gov/api/temporal/daily/point?parameters=T2M%2CRH2M%2CPRECTOTCORR%2CWS2M&community=AG&longitude=175.3&latitude=-37.8&start=20260528&end=20260603&format=JSON"},{"id":"open-meteo-forecast-queensland","sourceName":"Open-Meteo global weather forecast","label":{"en":"Queensland 7-day rain forecast","es":"Pronóstico de lluvia 7 días en Queensland","pt":"Previsão de chuva 7 dias em Queensland"},"metric":"open_meteo_7d_precip_forecast","value":2.1,"unit":"mm/week","observationDate":"2026-06-06 to 2026-06-12","confidence":79,"producerRead":{"en":"Queensland: 2.1 mm rain forecast over 7 days, 6 dry days, 25.4 C air-temperature high, 24.9 C apparent high, and 6.9 C low. Use this before moving cattle, changing supplement, buying hay, or holding weight through the next gain window.","es":"Queensland: 2.1 mm de lluvia previstos en 7 días, 6 días secos, máxima de aire de 25.4 C, sensación máxima de 24.9 C y mínima de 6.9 C. Úsalo antes de mover ganado, cambiar suplemento, comprar heno o retener peso en la próxima ventana de ganancia.","pt":"Queensland: 2.1 mm de chuva previstos em 7 dias, 6 dias secos, máxima do ar de 25.4 C, sensação máxima de 24.9 C e mínima de 6.9 C. Use antes de mover gado, mudar suplemento, comprar feno ou reter peso na próxima janela de ganho."},"sourceUrl":"https://api.open-meteo.com/v1/forecast?latitude=-22.6&longitude=144.5&daily=temperature_2m_max%2Ctemperature_2m_min%2Capparent_temperature_max%2Cprecipitation_sum%2Cet0_fao_evapotranspiration&forecast_days=7&timezone=auto"},{"id":"open-meteo-water-demand-queensland","sourceName":"Open-Meteo global weather forecast","label":{"en":"Queensland 7-day water demand forecast","es":"Demanda de agua 7 días en Queensland","pt":"Demanda de água 7 dias em Queensland"},"metric":"open_meteo_7d_water_demand_forecast","value":24,"unit":"mm/week","observationDate":"2026-06-06 to 2026-06-12","confidence":70,"producerRead":{"en":"Queensland: 24.0 mm/week reference evapotranspiration and 24.9 C apparent-temperature high are forecast. Pair this with rainfall to judge water checks, shade, dairy heat stress, pasture recovery, and irrigation/feed-crop pressure.","es":"Queensland: se prevén 24.0 mm/semana de evapotranspiración de referencia y 24.9 C de sensación máxima. Cruza esto con lluvia para revisar agua, sombra, estrés lechero, recuperación de pasto y presión de riego/cultivos de alimento.","pt":"Queensland: estão previstos 24.0 mm/semana de evapotranspiração de referência e 24.9 C de sensação máxima. Cruze com chuva para checar água, sombra, estresse leiteiro, recuperação de pasto e pressão de irrigação/culturas para ração."},"sourceUrl":"https://api.open-meteo.com/v1/forecast?latitude=-22.6&longitude=144.5&daily=temperature_2m_max%2Ctemperature_2m_min%2Capparent_temperature_max%2Cprecipitation_sum%2Cet0_fao_evapotranspiration&forecast_days=7&timezone=auto"},{"id":"open-meteo-forecast-waikato","sourceName":"Open-Meteo global weather forecast","label":{"en":"Waikato 7-day rain forecast","es":"Pronóstico de lluvia 7 días en Waikato","pt":"Previsão de chuva 7 dias em Waikato"},"metric":"open_meteo_7d_precip_forecast","value":4.8,"unit":"mm/week","observationDate":"2026-06-06 to 2026-06-12","confidence":79,"producerRead":{"en":"Waikato: 4.8 mm rain forecast over 7 days, 6 dry days, 16.5 C air-temperature high, 14.3 C apparent high, and 2.7 C low. Use this before moving cattle, changing supplement, buying hay, or holding weight through the next gain window.","es":"Waikato: 4.8 mm de lluvia previstos en 7 días, 6 días secos, máxima de aire de 16.5 C, sensación máxima de 14.3 C y mínima de 2.7 C. Úsalo antes de mover ganado, cambiar suplemento, comprar heno o retener peso en la próxima ventana de ganancia.","pt":"Waikato: 4.8 mm de chuva previstos em 7 dias, 6 dias secos, máxima do ar de 16.5 C, sensação máxima de 14.3 C e mínima de 2.7 C. Use antes de mover gado, mudar suplemento, comprar feno ou reter peso na próxima janela de ganho."},"sourceUrl":"https://api.open-meteo.com/v1/forecast?latitude=-37.8&longitude=175.3&daily=temperature_2m_max%2Ctemperature_2m_min%2Capparent_temperature_max%2Cprecipitation_sum%2Cet0_fao_evapotranspiration&forecast_days=7&timezone=auto"},{"id":"open-meteo-water-demand-waikato","sourceName":"Open-Meteo global weather forecast","label":{"en":"Waikato 7-day water demand forecast","es":"Demanda de agua 7 días en Waikato","pt":"Demanda de água 7 dias em Waikato"},"metric":"open_meteo_7d_water_demand_forecast","value":8.6,"unit":"mm/week","observationDate":"2026-06-06 to 2026-06-12","confidence":70,"producerRead":{"en":"Waikato: 8.6 mm/week reference evapotranspiration and 14.3 C apparent-temperature high are forecast. Pair this with rainfall to judge water checks, shade, dairy heat stress, pasture recovery, and irrigation/feed-crop pressure.","es":"Waikato: se prevén 8.6 mm/semana de evapotranspiración de referencia y 14.3 C de sensación máxima. Cruza esto con lluvia para revisar agua, sombra, estrés lechero, recuperación de pasto y presión de riego/cultivos de alimento.","pt":"Waikato: estão previstos 8.6 mm/semana de evapotranspiração de referência e 14.3 C de sensação máxima. Cruze com chuva para checar água, sombra, estresse leiteiro, recuperação de pasto e pressão de irrigação/culturas para ração."},"sourceUrl":"https://api.open-meteo.com/v1/forecast?latitude=-37.8&longitude=175.3&daily=temperature_2m_max%2Ctemperature_2m_min%2Capparent_temperature_max%2Cprecipitation_sum%2Cet0_fao_evapotranspiration&forecast_days=7&timezone=auto"},{"id":"open-meteo-forecast-new-south-wales","sourceName":"Open-Meteo global weather forecast","label":{"en":"New South Wales 7-day rain forecast","es":"Pronóstico de lluvia 7 días en New South Wales","pt":"Previsão de chuva 7 dias em New South Wales"},"metric":"open_meteo_7d_precip_forecast","value":3.8,"unit":"mm/week","observationDate":"2026-06-06 to 2026-06-12","confidence":79,"producerRead":{"en":"New South Wales: 3.8 mm rain forecast over 7 days, 6 dry days, 19.3 C air-temperature high, 17.8 C apparent high, and 3.9 C low. Use this before moving cattle, changing supplement, buying hay, or holding weight through the next gain window.","es":"New South Wales: 3.8 mm de lluvia previstos en 7 días, 6 días secos, máxima de aire de 19.3 C, sensación máxima de 17.8 C y mínima de 3.9 C. Úsalo antes de mover ganado, cambiar suplemento, comprar heno o retener peso en la próxima ventana de ganancia.","pt":"New South Wales: 3.8 mm de chuva previstos em 7 dias, 6 dias secos, máxima do ar de 19.3 C, sensação máxima de 17.8 C e mínima de 3.9 C. Use antes de mover gado, mudar suplemento, comprar feno ou reter peso na próxima janela de ganho."},"sourceUrl":"https://api.open-meteo.com/v1/forecast?latitude=-32.2&longitude=147&daily=temperature_2m_max%2Ctemperature_2m_min%2Capparent_temperature_max%2Cprecipitation_sum%2Cet0_fao_evapotranspiration&forecast_days=7&timezone=auto"},{"id":"open-meteo-water-demand-new-south-wales","sourceName":"Open-Meteo global weather forecast","label":{"en":"New South Wales 7-day water demand forecast","es":"Demanda de agua 7 días en New South Wales","pt":"Demanda de água 7 dias em New South Wales"},"metric":"open_meteo_7d_water_demand_forecast","value":10.7,"unit":"mm/week","observationDate":"2026-06-06 to 2026-06-12","confidence":70,"producerRead":{"en":"New South Wales: 10.7 mm/week reference evapotranspiration and 17.8 C apparent-temperature high are forecast. Pair this with rainfall to judge water checks, shade, dairy heat stress, pasture recovery, and irrigation/feed-crop pressure.","es":"New South Wales: se prevén 10.7 mm/semana de evapotranspiración de referencia y 17.8 C de sensación máxima. Cruza esto con lluvia para revisar agua, sombra, estrés lechero, recuperación de pasto y presión de riego/cultivos de alimento.","pt":"New South Wales: estão previstos 10.7 mm/semana de evapotranspiração de referência e 17.8 C de sensação máxima. Cruze com chuva para checar água, sombra, estresse leiteiro, recuperação de pasto e pressão de irrigação/culturas para ração."},"sourceUrl":"https://api.open-meteo.com/v1/forecast?latitude=-32.2&longitude=147&daily=temperature_2m_max%2Ctemperature_2m_min%2Capparent_temperature_max%2Cprecipitation_sum%2Cet0_fao_evapotranspiration&forecast_days=7&timezone=auto"},{"id":"world-bank-wdi-livestock_production_index-oceania","sourceName":"World Bank WDI","label":{"en":"Oceania Livestock production index","es":"Índice de producción ganadera en Oceanía","pt":"Índice de produção pecuária em Oceania"},"metric":"livestock_production_index","value":87.5,"unit":"index","observationDate":"2022","confidence":74,"producerRead":{"en":"Livestock production index averages 87.5 index across Oceania. Country readings: Australia 87. This is a structural supply baseline; use it before treating a weekly report as the whole market.","es":"Índice de producción ganadera promedia 87.5 index en Oceanía. Lecturas por país: Australia 87. Es una base estructural de oferta; úsala antes de tratar un reporte semanal como todo el mercado.","pt":"Índice de produção pecuária tem média de 87.5 index em Oceania. Leituras por país: Australia 87. É uma base estrutural de oferta; use antes de tratar um relatório semanal como todo o mercado."},"sourceUrl":"https://api.worldbank.org/v2/indicator/AG.PRD.LVSK.XD"},{"id":"world-bank-wdi-livestock_production_index-australia","sourceName":"World Bank WDI","label":{"en":"Australia Livestock production index","es":"Índice de producción ganadera en Australia","pt":"Índice de produção pecuária em Austrália"},"metric":"livestock_production_index_australia","value":87.5,"unit":"index","observationDate":"2022","confidence":74,"producerRead":{"en":"Australia: Livestock production index is 87.5 index. This is a structural supply baseline; use it before treating a weekly report as the whole market.","es":"Australia: Índice de producción ganadera es 87.5 index. Es una base estructural de oferta; úsala antes de tratar un reporte semanal como todo el mercado.","pt":"Austrália: Índice de produção pecuária é 87.5 index. É uma base estrutural de oferta; use antes de tratar um relatório semanal como todo o mercado."},"sourceUrl":"https://api.worldbank.org/v2/indicator/AG.PRD.LVSK.XD"}],"driverImpacts":[{"id":"usda-wasde-australia-wheat-production-monthly-balance-impact","sectors":["feed","beef","dairy","crops"],"severity":"high","confidence":90,"title":{"en":"Australia wheat production changes the monthly feed and supply read","es":"Produccion de trigo Australia cambia la lectura mensual de alimento y oferta","pt":"Producao de trigo Australia muda a leitura mensal de racao e oferta"},"signal":{"en":"30 million tonnes in the May 2026 WASDE for 2026/27; -16.7% versus 2025/26. This is the official monthly bridge from crop/feed balance to cattle, milk, and sale timing.","es":"30 millones de toneladas en el WASDE May 2026 para 2026/27; -16.7% versus 2025/26. Es el puente mensual oficial entre balance de alimento, ganado, leche y momento de venta.","pt":"30 milhoes de toneladas no WASDE May 2026 para 2026/27; -16.7% versus 2025/26. E a ponte mensal oficial entre balanco de racao, gado, leite e venda."},"affects":{"en":"Delivered feed cost, ration coverage, hay substitution, crop-to-cattle margin, feeder bids, and whether retained weight still pays.","es":"Costo de alimento entregado, cobertura de racion, sustitucion de heno, margen cultivo-ganado, invernada y si retener kilos paga.","pt":"Custo de racao entregue, cobertura da dieta, substituicao de feno, margem lavoura-gado, recria e se peso retido paga."},"producerDecision":{"en":"Put the WASDE revision beside local corn, meal, hay, freight, and weather before buying feed, buying feeders, or holding cattle for more gain.","es":"Poner la revision WASDE junto a maiz local, harina, heno, flete y clima antes de comprar alimento, invernada o retener kilos.","pt":"Colocar a revisao WASDE junto de milho local, farelo, feno, frete e clima antes de comprar racao, recria ou reter peso."},"sourceIds":["usda-wasde"]},{"id":"usda-wasde-australia-wheat-exports-monthly-balance-impact","sectors":["feed","beef","dairy","crops"],"severity":"high","confidence":90,"title":{"en":"Australia wheat exports changes the monthly feed and supply read","es":"Exportaciones de trigo Australia cambia la lectura mensual de alimento y oferta","pt":"Exportacoes de trigo Australia muda a leitura mensal de racao e oferta"},"signal":{"en":"23 million tonnes in the May 2026 WASDE for 2026/27; -11.5% versus 2025/26. This is the official monthly bridge from crop/feed balance to cattle, milk, and sale timing.","es":"23 millones de toneladas en el WASDE May 2026 para 2026/27; -11.5% versus 2025/26. Es el puente mensual oficial entre balance de alimento, ganado, leche y momento de venta.","pt":"23 milhoes de toneladas no WASDE May 2026 para 2026/27; -11.5% versus 2025/26. E a ponte mensal oficial entre balanco de racao, gado, leite e venda."},"affects":{"en":"Delivered feed cost, ration coverage, hay substitution, crop-to-cattle margin, feeder bids, and whether retained weight still pays.","es":"Costo de alimento entregado, cobertura de racion, sustitucion de heno, margen cultivo-ganado, invernada y si retener kilos paga.","pt":"Custo de racao entregue, cobertura da dieta, substituicao de feno, margem lavoura-gado, recria e se peso retido paga."},"producerDecision":{"en":"Put the WASDE revision beside local corn, meal, hay, freight, and weather before buying feed, buying feeders, or holding cattle for more gain.","es":"Poner la revision WASDE junto a maiz local, harina, heno, flete y clima antes de comprar alimento, invernada o retener kilos.","pt":"Colocar a revisao WASDE junto de milho local, farelo, feno, frete e clima antes de comprar racao, recria ou reter peso."},"sourceIds":["usda-wasde"]},{"id":"fas-psd-as-corn-feed-balance-sheet-impact","sectors":["feed","crops","beef","dairy"],"severity":"high","confidence":90,"title":{"en":"Australia PSD corn feed balance updates the long-cycle supply read","es":"Australia PSD balance de maíz para alimento actualiza la lectura de oferta de ciclo largo","pt":"Austrália PSD balanço de milho para ração atualiza a leitura de oferta de ciclo longo"},"signal":{"en":"180 thousand mt in USDA FAS PSD for Australia. The balance sheet is +9.1% versus 2025, so read it against local prices instead of treating daily headlines as isolated events.","es":"180 miles de t en USDA FAS PSD para Australia. El balance es +9.1% versus 2025; leerlo contra precios locales en vez de tratar titulares diarios como eventos aislados.","pt":"180 mil t no USDA FAS PSD para Australia. O balanco e +9.1% versus 2025; leia contra precos locais em vez de tratar manchetes diarias como eventos isolados."},"affects":{"en":"Feed availability, import exposure, ration coverage, feeder bids, retained-weight economics, and crop-to-cattle margin.","es":"Disponibilidad de alimento, exposicion importadora, cobertura de racion, invernada, kilos retenidos y margen cultivo-ganado.","pt":"Disponibilidade de racao, exposicao a importacao, cobertura de dieta, recria, peso retido e margem lavoura-gado."},"producerDecision":{"en":"Use the PSD feed balance with delivered corn, meal, hay, freight, and weather before locking ration coverage or holding cattle for more gain.","es":"Usar el balance PSD de alimento con maiz entregado, harina, heno, flete y clima antes de cubrir racion o retener kilos.","pt":"Usar o balanco PSD de racao com milho entregue, farelo, feno, frete e clima antes de cobrir dieta ou reter peso."},"sourceIds":["usda-fas"]},{"id":"fas-psd-as-sorghum-feed-balance-sheet-impact","sectors":["feed","crops","beef","dairy"],"severity":"high","confidence":90,"title":{"en":"Australia PSD sorghum feed balance updates the long-cycle supply read","es":"Australia PSD balance de sorgo para alimento actualiza la lectura de oferta de ciclo largo","pt":"Austrália PSD balanço de sorgo para ração atualiza a leitura de oferta de ciclo longo"},"signal":{"en":"150 thousand mt in USDA FAS PSD for Australia. The balance sheet is +50.0% versus 2025, so read it against local prices instead of treating daily headlines as isolated events.","es":"150 miles de t en USDA FAS PSD para Australia. El balance es +50.0% versus 2025; leerlo contra precios locales en vez de tratar titulares diarios como eventos aislados.","pt":"150 mil t no USDA FAS PSD para Australia. O balanco e +50.0% versus 2025; leia contra precos locais em vez de tratar manchetes diarias como eventos isolados."},"affects":{"en":"Feed availability, import exposure, ration coverage, feeder bids, retained-weight economics, and crop-to-cattle margin.","es":"Disponibilidad de alimento, exposicion importadora, cobertura de racion, invernada, kilos retenidos y margen cultivo-ganado.","pt":"Disponibilidade de racao, exposicao a importacao, cobertura de dieta, recria, peso retido e margem lavoura-gado."},"producerDecision":{"en":"Use the PSD feed balance with delivered corn, meal, hay, freight, and weather before locking ration coverage or holding cattle for more gain.","es":"Usar el balance PSD de alimento con maiz entregado, harina, heno, flete y clima antes de cubrir racion o retener kilos.","pt":"Usar o balanco PSD de racao com milho entregue, farelo, feno, frete e clima antes de cobrir dieta ou reter peso."},"sourceIds":["usda-fas"]},{"id":"fas-psd-nz-cattle-balance-sheet-impact","sectors":["beef","dairy","feed"],"severity":"high","confidence":90,"title":{"en":"New Zealand PSD cattle herd and slaughter updates the long-cycle supply read","es":"Nueva Zelanda PSD hato y faena bovina actualiza la lectura de oferta de ciclo largo","pt":"Nova Zelândia PSD rebanho e abate bovino atualiza a leitura de oferta de ciclo longo"},"signal":{"en":"10,070 thousand head in USDA FAS PSD for New Zealand. The balance sheet is +2.3% versus 2025, so read it against local prices instead of treating daily headlines as isolated events.","es":"10,070 thousand head en USDA FAS PSD para New Zealand. El balance es +2.3% versus 2025; leerlo contra precios locales en vez de tratar titulares diarios como eventos aislados.","pt":"10,070 thousand head no USDA FAS PSD para New Zealand. O balanco e +2.3% versus 2025; leia contra precos locais em vez de tratar manchetes diarias como eventos isolados."},"affects":{"en":"Replacement supply, cow retention, slaughter availability, feeder flow, and the long-cycle floor under cattle prices.","es":"Reposicion, retencion de vacas, disponibilidad de faena, flujo de invernada y piso de ciclo largo del precio.","pt":"Reposicao, retencao de matrizes, disponibilidade de abate, fluxo de recria e piso de ciclo longo do preco."},"producerDecision":{"en":"Use the PSD herd balance before retaining replacements, buying feeders, or assuming local supply will stay loose or tight.","es":"Usar el balance PSD del hato antes de retener reposicion, comprar invernada o asumir oferta local floja o ajustada.","pt":"Usar o balanco PSD do rebanho antes de reter reposicao, comprar recria ou assumir oferta local frouxa ou apertada."},"sourceIds":["usda-fas"]},{"id":"fas-psd-nz-soybean-meal-feed-balance-sheet-impact","sectors":["feed","crops","beef","dairy"],"severity":"high","confidence":90,"title":{"en":"New Zealand PSD soybean meal feed balance updates the long-cycle supply read","es":"Nueva Zelanda PSD balance de harina de soja actualiza la lectura de oferta de ciclo largo","pt":"Nova Zelândia PSD balanço de farelo de soja atualiza a leitura de oferta de ciclo longo"},"signal":{"en":"580 thousand mt in USDA FAS PSD for New Zealand. The balance sheet is +5.5% versus 2025, so read it against local prices instead of treating daily headlines as isolated events.","es":"580 miles de t en USDA FAS PSD para New Zealand. El balance es +5.5% versus 2025; leerlo contra precios locales en vez de tratar titulares diarios como eventos aislados.","pt":"580 mil t no USDA FAS PSD para New Zealand. O balanco e +5.5% versus 2025; leia contra precos locais em vez de tratar manchetes diarias como eventos isolados."},"affects":{"en":"Feed availability, import exposure, ration coverage, feeder bids, retained-weight economics, and crop-to-cattle margin.","es":"Disponibilidad de alimento, exposicion importadora, cobertura de racion, invernada, kilos retenidos y margen cultivo-ganado.","pt":"Disponibilidade de racao, exposicao a importacao, cobertura de dieta, recria, peso retido e margem lavoura-gado."},"producerDecision":{"en":"Use the PSD feed balance with delivered corn, meal, hay, freight, and weather before locking ration coverage or holding cattle for more gain.","es":"Usar el balance PSD de alimento con maiz entregado, harina, heno, flete y clima antes de cubrir racion o retener kilos.","pt":"Usar o balanco PSD de racao com milho entregue, farelo, feno, frete e clima antes de cobrir dieta ou reter peso."},"sourceIds":["usda-fas"]},{"id":"gdt-events-oceania-smp-dairy-margin-impact","sectors":["dairy","beef","feed"],"severity":"high","confidence":89,"title":{"en":"Oceania GDT Skimmilk Powders changes dairy margin pressure","es":"Oceania GDT Skimmilk Powders cambia la presion de margen lechero","pt":"Oceania GDT Skimmilk Powders muda a pressao de margem do leite"},"signal":{"en":"3,457 $/mt in the latest Global Dairy Trade public results. The event-to-event index move is -3.0%.","es":"3,457 USD/t en los resultados publicos recientes de Global Dairy Trade. El cambio entre eventos es -3.0%.","pt":"3,457 USD/t nos resultados publicos recentes da Global Dairy Trade. A mudanca entre eventos e -3.0%."},"affects":{"en":"Milk-check expectations, ration tolerance, cull timing, replacement appetite, dairy-beef supply, processor support, and export-linked demand.","es":"Pago esperado de leche, tolerancia a racion, descarte, reposicion, oferta de carne lechera, soporte industrial y demanda exportadora.","pt":"Expectativa de pagamento do leite, tolerancia a racao, descarte, reposicao, oferta de carne leiteira, suporte industrial e demanda externa."},"producerDecision":{"en":"Stress-test the milk check against delivered feed before adding ration cost, delaying culls, or keeping marginal cows another cycle.","es":"Probar el pago de leche contra alimento entregado antes de sumar racion, demorar descarte o mantener vacas marginales otro ciclo.","pt":"Teste o pagamento do leite contra racao entregue antes de aumentar dieta, atrasar descarte ou manter vacas marginais outro ciclo."},"sourceIds":["gdt-events"]},{"id":"open-meteo-forecast-queensland-forward-forage-impact","sectors":["beef","dairy","feed","crops"],"severity":"high","confidence":87,"title":{"en":"Queensland 7-day rain forecast: next-week forage forecast","es":"Pronóstico de lluvia 7 días en Queensland: pronóstico de forraje próxima semana","pt":"Previsão de chuva 7 dias em Queensland: previsão de pasto próxima semana"},"signal":{"en":"2.1 mm/week forecast for the next 7 days. Read it as a forward pasture, water, hay, and sale-timing signal, not as a historical weather note.","es":"2.1 mm/semana previstos para los próximos 7 días. Léelo como señal futura de pasto, agua, heno y momento de venta, no como nota histórica de clima.","pt":"2.1 mm/semana previstos para os próximos 7 dias. Leia como sinal futuro de pasto, água, feno e momento de venda, não como nota histórica de clima."},"affects":{"en":"Pasture recovery, heat load, water checks, supplement coverage, hay buying, milk yield, and whether the next weight gain still pays.","es":"Recuperación de pasto, carga de calor, agua, cobertura de suplemento, compra de heno, leche y si la próxima ganancia de peso todavía paga.","pt":"Recuperação de pasto, carga térmica, água, cobertura de suplemento, compra de feno, leite e se o próximo ganho de peso ainda paga."},"producerDecision":{"en":"Move the next-week forecast into the sale-or-hold math: count forage days, check water, price hay, and avoid holding cattle for gain that weather may not deliver.","es":"Meter el pronóstico semanal en la cuenta de vender o retener: contar días de pasto, revisar agua, poner precio al heno y evitar retener ganado por una ganancia que el clima no dará.","pt":"Colocar a previsão semanal na conta de vender ou reter: contar dias de pasto, revisar água, precificar feno e evitar reter gado por ganho que o clima pode não entregar."},"sourceIds":["open-meteo-forecast"]}],"temporalSignals":[{"id":"nasa-power-queensland-rainfall-baseline","sourceName":"NASA POWER","metric":"rainfall_vs_prior_30d","currentValue":0,"baselineValue":1,"changePercent":-100,"direction":"tightening","confidence":82,"title":{"en":"Queensland rainfall against the prior 30 days","es":"Lluvia en Queensland contra los 30 días previos","pt":"Chuva em Queensland contra os 30 dias anteriores"},"signal":{"en":"Queensland received 0.0 mm in the latest 7-day window versus a prior 30-day pace of 1.0 mm/week.","es":"Queensland recibió 0.0 mm en los últimos 7 días contra un ritmo previo de 1.0 mm/semana.","pt":"Queensland recebeu 0.0 mm nos últimos 7 dias contra ritmo anterior de 1.0 mm/semana."},"producerDecision":{"en":"Compare the next 2-8 weeks of forage against feed cost before holding cattle for more weight.","es":"Comparar las próximas 2-8 semanas de forraje contra costo de alimento antes de retener ganado.","pt":"Comparar as próximas 2-8 semanas de pasto contra custo de ração antes de reter gado."},"sourceUrl":"https://power.larc.nasa.gov/api/temporal/daily/point?parameters=T2M%2CPRECTOTCORR&community=AG&longitude=144.5&latitude=-22.6&start=20260428&end=20260603&format=JSON"},{"id":"nasa-power-waikato-rainfall-baseline","sourceName":"NASA POWER","metric":"rainfall_vs_prior_30d","currentValue":33,"baselineValue":5,"changePercent":561,"direction":"improving","confidence":82,"title":{"en":"Waikato rainfall against the prior 30 days","es":"Lluvia en Waikato contra los 30 días previos","pt":"Chuva em Waikato contra os 30 dias anteriores"},"signal":{"en":"Waikato received 33.0 mm in the latest 7-day window versus a prior 30-day pace of 5.0 mm/week.","es":"Waikato recibió 33.0 mm en los últimos 7 días contra un ritmo previo de 5.0 mm/semana.","pt":"Waikato recebeu 33.0 mm nos últimos 7 dias contra ritmo anterior de 5.0 mm/semana."},"producerDecision":{"en":"Compare the next 2-8 weeks of forage against feed cost before holding cattle for more weight.","es":"Comparar las próximas 2-8 semanas de forraje contra costo de alimento antes de retener ganado.","pt":"Comparar as próximas 2-8 semanas de pasto contra custo de ração antes de reter gado."},"sourceUrl":"https://power.larc.nasa.gov/api/temporal/daily/point?parameters=T2M%2CPRECTOTCORR&community=AG&longitude=175.3&latitude=-37.8&start=20260428&end=20260603&format=JSON"}],"marketEvents":[{"id":"beefcentral-production-rss-growing-number-of-cattle-tick-infestations-in-nsw-causing-deaths-2026-06-04","sourceName":"Beef Central","category":{"en":"Animal health","es":"Sanidad animal","pt":"Sanidade animal"},"severity":"high","publishedAt":"2026-06-04T04:54:20.000Z","title":{"en":"Growing number of cattle tick infestations in NSW causing deaths","es":"Growing number of cattle tick infestations in NSW causing deaths","pt":"Growing number of cattle tick infestations in NSW causing deaths"},"summary":{"en":"NSW cattle producers and veterinarians are concerned by the growing number of cattle dying from tick fever and are calling for urgent boots on the ground from DPIRD.","es":"NSW cattle producers and veterinarians are concerned by the growing number of cattle dying from tick fever and are calling for urgent boots on the ground from DPIRD.","pt":"NSW cattle producers and veterinarians are concerned by the growing number of cattle dying from tick fever and are calling for urgent boots on the ground from DPIRD."},"producerDecision":{"en":"Check movement, replacement purchases, and export-linked commitments before assuming normal buyer access.","es":"Revisar movimiento, reposición y compromisos exportadores antes de asumir acceso normal.","pt":"Revisar movimentação, reposição e compromissos exportadores antes de assumir acesso normal."},"sourceUrl":"https://www.beefcentral.com/production/growing-number-of-cattle-tick-infestations-in-nsw-causing-deaths/","confidence":82},{"id":"fao-newsroom-rss-fao-report-highlights-long-term-economic-case-for-tackling-antimicrobial-resistance--2026-06-03","sourceName":"FAO Newsroom","category":{"en":"Animal health","es":"Sanidad animal","pt":"Sanidade animal"},"severity":"high","publishedAt":"2026-06-03T12:00:00.000Z","title":{"en":"FAO report highlights long-term economic case for tackling antimicrobial resistance in livestock","es":"FAO report highlights long-term economic case for tackling antimicrobial resistance in livestock","pt":"FAO report highlights long-term economic case for tackling antimicrobial resistance in livestock"},"summary":{"en":"Public item selected because it can affect livestock movement, buyer access, and biosecurity: FAO report highlights long-term economic case for tackling antimicrobial resistance in livestock","es":"Ítem público seleccionado porque puede afectar movimiento, acceso de compradores y bioseguridad: FAO report highlights long-term economic case for tackling antimicrobial resistance in livestock","pt":"Item público selecionado porque pode afetar movimentação, acesso de compradores e biossegurança: FAO report highlights long-term economic case for tackling antimicrobial resistance in livestock"},"producerDecision":{"en":"Check movement, replacement purchases, and export-linked commitments before assuming normal buyer access.","es":"Revisar movimiento, reposición y compromisos exportadores antes de asumir acceso normal.","pt":"Revisar movimentação, reposição e compromissos exportadores antes de assumir acesso normal."},"sourceUrl":"https://www.fao.org/newsroom/detail/fao-report-highlights-long-term-economic-case-for-tackling-antimicrobial-resistance-in-livestock/en","confidence":82},{"id":"fao-newsroom-rss-strait-of-hormuz-time-running-out-to-avert-global-food-security-crisis-fao-warns-2026-05-26","sourceName":"FAO Newsroom","category":{"en":"Conflict and logistics","es":"Conflicto y logística","pt":"Conflito e logística"},"severity":"high","publishedAt":"2026-05-26T12:00:00.000Z","title":{"en":"Strait of Hormuz: Time running out to avert global food security crisis, FAO warns","es":"Strait of Hormuz: Time running out to avert global food security crisis, FAO warns","pt":"Strait of Hormuz: Time running out to avert global food security crisis, FAO warns"},"summary":{"en":"Public item selected because war, sanctions, ports, canals, or shipping routes can change delivered feed, fertilizer, fuel, freight, and buyer access: Strait of Hormuz: Time running out to avert global food security crisis, FAO warns","es":"Ítem público seleccionado porque guerra, sanciones, puertos, canales o rutas marítimas pueden cambiar alimento entregado, fertilizante, combustible, flete y compradores: Strait of Hormuz: Time running out to avert global food security crisis, FAO warns","pt":"Item público selecionado porque guerra, sanções, portos, canais ou rotas marítimas podem mudar ração entregue, fertilizante, combustível, frete e compradores: Strait of Hormuz: Time running out to avert global food security crisis, FAO warns"},"producerDecision":{"en":"Check delivered feed, fertilizer, fuel, freight, and route exposure before holding cattle longer or locking crop-input purchases.","es":"Revisar alimento entregado, fertilizante, combustible, flete y rutas antes de retener ganado o fijar insumos.","pt":"Revisar ração entregue, fertilizante, combustível, frete e rotas antes de reter gado ou travar insumos."},"sourceUrl":"https://www.fao.org/newsroom/detail/strait-of-hormuz--time-running-out-to-avert-global-food-security-crisis--fao-warns/en","confidence":82},{"id":"fao-newsroom-rss-strait-of-hormuz-conflict-threatens-global-food-prices-as-fao-warns-time-is-running--2026-05-20","sourceName":"FAO Newsroom","category":{"en":"Conflict and logistics","es":"Conflicto y logística","pt":"Conflito e logística"},"severity":"high","publishedAt":"2026-05-20T12:00:00.000Z","title":{"en":"Strait of Hormuz conflict threatens global food prices as FAO warns time is running out","es":"Strait of Hormuz conflict threatens global food prices as FAO warns time is running out","pt":"Strait of Hormuz conflict threatens global food prices as FAO warns time is running out"},"summary":{"en":"Public item selected because war, sanctions, ports, canals, or shipping routes can change delivered feed, fertilizer, fuel, freight, and buyer access: Strait of Hormuz conflict threatens global food prices as FAO warns time is running out","es":"Ítem público seleccionado porque guerra, sanciones, puertos, canales o rutas marítimas pueden cambiar alimento entregado, fertilizante, combustible, flete y compradores: Strait of Hormuz conflict threatens global food prices as FAO warns time is running out","pt":"Item público selecionado porque guerra, sanções, portos, canais ou rotas marítimas podem mudar ração entregue, fertilizante, combustível, frete e compradores: Strait of Hormuz conflict threatens global food prices as FAO warns time is running out"},"producerDecision":{"en":"Check delivered feed, fertilizer, fuel, freight, and route exposure before holding cattle longer or locking crop-input purchases.","es":"Revisar alimento entregado, fertilizante, combustible, flete y rutas antes de retener ganado o fijar insumos.","pt":"Revisar ração entregue, fertilizante, combustível, frete e rotas antes de reter gado ou travar insumos."},"sourceUrl":"https://www.fao.org/newsroom/detail/strait-of-hormuz-conflict-threatens-global-food-prices-as-fao-warns-time-is-running-out/en","confidence":82},{"id":"google-news-rss-oceania-cattle-cattle-industry-loses-court-appeal-over-live-export-ban-compensation-australian-broa-2026-05-15","sourceName":"Google News public search RSS","category":{"en":"Trade and policy","es":"Comercio y política","pt":"Comércio e política"},"severity":"high","publishedAt":"2026-05-15T07:00:00.000Z","title":{"en":"Cattle industry loses court appeal over live export ban compensation - Australian Broadcasting Corporation","es":"Cattle industry loses court appeal over live export ban compensation - Australian Broadcasting Corporation","pt":"Cattle industry loses court appeal over live export ban compensation - Australian Broadcasting Corporation"},"summary":{"en":"Public item selected because trade, border, or market-access changes can move local cattle, dairy, feed, and crop bids: Cattle industry loses court appeal over live export ban compensation - Australian Broadcasting Corporation","es":"Ítem público seleccionado porque comercio, frontera o acceso de mercado pueden mover ofertas locales de ganado, leche, alimento y cultivos: Cattle industry loses court appeal over live export ban compensation - Australian Broadcasting Corporation","pt":"Item público selecionado porque comércio, fronteira ou acesso de mercado podem mover preços locais de gado, leite, ração e culturas: Cattle industry loses court appeal over live export ban compensation - Australian Broadcasting Corporation"},"producerDecision":{"en":"Price cattle, milk, feed, and crops with destination exposure before committing volume.","es":"Valuar ganado, leche, alimento y cultivos con exposición de destino antes de comprometer volumen.","pt":"Precificar gado, leite, ração e culturas com exposição de destino antes de comprometer volume."},"sourceUrl":"https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiqAFBVV95cUxQMDM3NGhONFBLQW9EQUJNcnA5bmFKVkRuVU1yVVNNQUtGbzcwUEJqVm5QMkhjM29uX1gweGkxS1Q0aGlVN0dXOExZS21hUHNQREhSZ05FRG83d3N5VjVaRmtjRV9RUlJnWkZHTW1hX0F0MTA5TFdoQnBDNXU4dkREaTZSMjdFMjJMUGRTNXhnQk9mUEFBVUdXUGFaVk5RQnB6UjFQVEdFenU?oc=5","confidence":82},{"id":"fao-newsroom-rss-strait-of-hormuz-crisis-fertilizer-scarcity-will-affect-next-harvests-and-food-suppl-2026-05-07","sourceName":"FAO Newsroom","category":{"en":"Conflict and logistics","es":"Conflicto y logística","pt":"Conflito e logística"},"severity":"high","publishedAt":"2026-05-07T12:00:00.000Z","title":{"en":"Strait of Hormuz crisis: Fertilizer scarcity will affect next harvests and food supplies, FAO warns","es":"Strait of Hormuz crisis: Fertilizer scarcity will affect next harvests and food supplies, FAO warns","pt":"Strait of Hormuz crisis: Fertilizer scarcity will affect next harvests and food supplies, FAO warns"},"summary":{"en":"Public item selected because war, sanctions, ports, canals, or shipping routes can change delivered feed, fertilizer, fuel, freight, and buyer access: Strait of Hormuz crisis: Fertilizer scarcity will affect next harvests and food supplies, FAO warns","es":"Ítem público seleccionado porque guerra, sanciones, puertos, canales o rutas marítimas pueden cambiar alimento entregado, fertilizante, combustible, flete y compradores: Strait of Hormuz crisis: Fertilizer scarcity will affect next harvests and food supplies, FAO warns","pt":"Item público selecionado porque guerra, sanções, portos, canais ou rotas marítimas podem mudar ração entregue, fertilizante, combustível, frete e compradores: Strait of Hormuz crisis: Fertilizer scarcity will affect next harvests and food supplies, FAO warns"},"producerDecision":{"en":"Check delivered feed, fertilizer, fuel, freight, and route exposure before holding cattle longer or locking crop-input purchases.","es":"Revisar alimento entregado, fertilizante, combustible, flete y rutas antes de retener ganado o fijar insumos.","pt":"Revisar ração entregue, fertilizante, combustível, frete e rotas antes de reter gado ou travar insumos."},"sourceUrl":"https://www.fao.org/newsroom/detail/strait-of-hormuz-crisis--fertilizer-scarcity-will-affect-next-harvests-and-food-supplies--fao-warns/en","confidence":82},{"id":"fao-newsroom-rss-fao-food-price-index-broadly-stable-in-may-even-as-cereal-quotations-increase-2026-06-05","sourceName":"FAO Newsroom","category":{"en":"Feed and inputs","es":"Alimento e insumos","pt":"Ração e insumos"},"severity":"medium","publishedAt":"2026-06-05T12:00:00.000Z","title":{"en":"FAO Food Price Index broadly stable in May even as cereal quotations increase","es":"FAO Food Price Index broadly stable in May even as cereal quotations increase","pt":"FAO Food Price Index broadly stable in May even as cereal quotations increase"},"summary":{"en":"Public item selected because feed, grain, fertilizer, fuel, or food-price pressure can change cattle and dairy margins: FAO Food Price Index broadly stable in May even as cereal quotations increase","es":"Ítem público seleccionado porque alimento, grano, fertilizante, combustible o precios de alimentos pueden cambiar márgenes ganaderos y lecheros: FAO Food Price Index broadly stable in May even as cereal quotations increase","pt":"Item público selecionado porque ração, grãos, fertilizante, combustível ou preços de alimentos podem mudar margens pecuárias e leiteiras: FAO Food Price Index broadly stable in May even as cereal quotations increase"},"producerDecision":{"en":"Recalculate feed coverage, hay buying, and the value of extra weight before delaying sales.","es":"Recalcular cobertura de alimento, compra de heno y valor de más kilos antes de demorar ventas.","pt":"Recalcular cobertura de ração, compra de feno e valor de mais peso antes de atrasar vendas."},"sourceUrl":"https://www.fao.org/newsroom/detail/fao-food-price-index-broadly-stable-in-may-even-as-cereal-quotations-increase/en","confidence":78},{"id":"beefcentral-markets-rss-all-saleyard-indicators-rise-sharply-after-handy-rain-2026-06-05","sourceName":"Beef Central","category":{"en":"Cattle supply","es":"Oferta ganadera","pt":"Oferta pecuária"},"severity":"medium","publishedAt":"2026-06-05T06:30:34.000Z","title":{"en":"All saleyard indicators rise sharply after handy rain","es":"All saleyard indicators rise sharply after handy rain","pt":"All saleyard indicators rise sharply after handy rain"},"summary":{"en":"Australian cattle prices rebounded sharply in May after trending lower since mid-March.","es":"Australian cattle prices rebounded sharply in May after trending lower since mid-March.","pt":"Australian cattle prices rebounded sharply in May after trending lower since mid-March."},"producerDecision":{"en":"Tie inventory and placement changes to local basis, feed availability, and sale window math.","es":"Conectar inventario y colocaciones con base local, alimento y ventana de venta.","pt":"Conectar estoque e entradas com base local, ração e janela de venda."},"sourceUrl":"https://www.beefcentral.com/markets/all-saleyard-indicators-rise-sharply-after-handy-rain/","confidence":78}]},{"regionId":"europe","regionName":{"en":"Europe","es":"Europa","pt":"Europa"},"liveObservations":[{"id":"nasa-power-ireland","sourceName":"NASA POWER","label":{"en":"Ireland weather pressure","es":"Presión climática en Ireland","pt":"Pressão climática em Ireland"},"metric":"rainfall_7d_mm","value":41.5,"unit":"mm","observationDate":"2026-06-03","confidence":70,"producerRead":{"en":"Ireland: 41.5 mm rain over the last week, 14.6 C average temperature, 87% humidity, and 3.6 m/s wind. Use this to judge pasture recovery, water checks, and sale timing.","es":"Ireland: 41.5 mm de lluvia en la última semana, 14.6 C de temperatura media, 87% de humedad y 3.6 m/s de viento. Úsalo para revisar rebrote de pasto, agua y momento de venta.","pt":"Ireland: 41.5 mm de chuva na última semana, 14.6 C de temperatura média, 87% de umidade e 3.6 m/s de vento. Use para avaliar pasto, água e momento de venda."},"sourceUrl":"https://power.larc.nasa.gov/api/temporal/daily/point?parameters=T2M%2CRH2M%2CPRECTOTCORR%2CWS2M&community=AG&longitude=-8.2&latitude=53.4&start=20260528&end=20260603&format=JSON"},{"id":"open-meteo-forecast-ireland","sourceName":"Open-Meteo global weather forecast","label":{"en":"Ireland 7-day rain forecast","es":"Pronóstico de lluvia 7 días en Ireland","pt":"Previsão de chuva 7 dias em Ireland"},"metric":"open_meteo_7d_precip_forecast","value":39,"unit":"mm/week","observationDate":"2026-06-06 to 2026-06-12","confidence":70,"producerRead":{"en":"Ireland: 39.0 mm rain forecast over 7 days, 1 dry days, 14.8 C air-temperature high, 12.1 C apparent high, and 6.9 C low. Use this before moving cattle, changing supplement, buying hay, or holding weight through the next gain window.","es":"Ireland: 39.0 mm de lluvia previstos en 7 días, 1 días secos, máxima de aire de 14.8 C, sensación máxima de 12.1 C y mínima de 6.9 C. Úsalo antes de mover ganado, cambiar suplemento, comprar heno o retener peso en la próxima ventana de ganancia.","pt":"Ireland: 39.0 mm de chuva previstos em 7 dias, 1 dias secos, máxima do ar de 14.8 C, sensação máxima de 12.1 C e mínima de 6.9 C. Use antes de mover gado, mudar suplemento, comprar feno ou reter peso na próxima janela de ganho."},"sourceUrl":"https://api.open-meteo.com/v1/forecast?latitude=53.4&longitude=-8.2&daily=temperature_2m_max%2Ctemperature_2m_min%2Capparent_temperature_max%2Cprecipitation_sum%2Cet0_fao_evapotranspiration&forecast_days=7&timezone=auto"},{"id":"open-meteo-water-demand-ireland","sourceName":"Open-Meteo global weather forecast","label":{"en":"Ireland 7-day water demand forecast","es":"Demanda de agua 7 días en Ireland","pt":"Demanda de água 7 dias em Ireland"},"metric":"open_meteo_7d_water_demand_forecast","value":16.3,"unit":"mm/week","observationDate":"2026-06-06 to 2026-06-12","confidence":70,"producerRead":{"en":"Ireland: 16.3 mm/week reference evapotranspiration and 12.1 C apparent-temperature high are forecast. Pair this with rainfall to judge water checks, shade, dairy heat stress, pasture recovery, and irrigation/feed-crop pressure.","es":"Ireland: se prevén 16.3 mm/semana de evapotranspiración de referencia y 12.1 C de sensación máxima. Cruza esto con lluvia para revisar agua, sombra, estrés lechero, recuperación de pasto y presión de riego/cultivos de alimento.","pt":"Ireland: estão previstos 16.3 mm/semana de evapotranspiração de referência e 12.1 C de sensação máxima. Cruze com chuva para checar água, sombra, estresse leiteiro, recuperação de pasto e pressão de irrigação/culturas para ração."},"sourceUrl":"https://api.open-meteo.com/v1/forecast?latitude=53.4&longitude=-8.2&daily=temperature_2m_max%2Ctemperature_2m_min%2Capparent_temperature_max%2Cprecipitation_sum%2Cet0_fao_evapotranspiration&forecast_days=7&timezone=auto"},{"id":"open-meteo-forecast-north-germany","sourceName":"Open-Meteo global weather forecast","label":{"en":"North Germany 7-day rain forecast","es":"Pronóstico de lluvia 7 días en North Germany","pt":"Previsão de chuva 7 dias em North Germany"},"metric":"open_meteo_7d_precip_forecast","value":34.4,"unit":"mm/week","observationDate":"2026-06-06 to 2026-06-12","confidence":70,"producerRead":{"en":"North Germany: 34.4 mm rain forecast over 7 days, 2 dry days, 23.4 C air-temperature high, 21.6 C apparent high, and 9.6 C low. Use this before moving cattle, changing supplement, buying hay, or holding weight through the next gain window.","es":"North Germany: 34.4 mm de lluvia previstos en 7 días, 2 días secos, máxima de aire de 23.4 C, sensación máxima de 21.6 C y mínima de 9.6 C. Úsalo antes de mover ganado, cambiar suplemento, comprar heno o retener peso en la próxima ventana de ganancia.","pt":"North Germany: 34.4 mm de chuva previstos em 7 dias, 2 dias secos, máxima do ar de 23.4 C, sensação máxima de 21.6 C e mínima de 9.6 C. Use antes de mover gado, mudar suplemento, comprar feno ou reter peso na próxima janela de ganho."},"sourceUrl":"https://api.open-meteo.com/v1/forecast?latitude=53.6&longitude=9.9&daily=temperature_2m_max%2Ctemperature_2m_min%2Capparent_temperature_max%2Cprecipitation_sum%2Cet0_fao_evapotranspiration&forecast_days=7&timezone=auto"},{"id":"open-meteo-water-demand-north-germany","sourceName":"Open-Meteo global weather forecast","label":{"en":"North Germany 7-day water demand forecast","es":"Demanda de agua 7 días en North Germany","pt":"Demanda de água 7 dias em North Germany"},"metric":"open_meteo_7d_water_demand_forecast","value":19.2,"unit":"mm/week","observationDate":"2026-06-06 to 2026-06-12","confidence":70,"producerRead":{"en":"North Germany: 19.2 mm/week reference evapotranspiration and 21.6 C apparent-temperature high are forecast. Pair this with rainfall to judge water checks, shade, dairy heat stress, pasture recovery, and irrigation/feed-crop pressure.","es":"North Germany: se prevén 19.2 mm/semana de evapotranspiración de referencia y 21.6 C de sensación máxima. Cruza esto con lluvia para revisar agua, sombra, estrés lechero, recuperación de pasto y presión de riego/cultivos de alimento.","pt":"North Germany: estão previstos 19.2 mm/semana de evapotranspiração de referência e 21.6 C de sensação máxima. Cruze com chuva para checar água, sombra, estresse leiteiro, recuperação de pasto e pressão de irrigação/culturas para ração."},"sourceUrl":"https://api.open-meteo.com/v1/forecast?latitude=53.6&longitude=9.9&daily=temperature_2m_max%2Ctemperature_2m_min%2Capparent_temperature_max%2Cprecipitation_sum%2Cet0_fao_evapotranspiration&forecast_days=7&timezone=auto"},{"id":"open-meteo-forecast-western-france","sourceName":"Open-Meteo global weather forecast","label":{"en":"Western France 7-day rain forecast","es":"Pronóstico de lluvia 7 días en Western France","pt":"Previsão de chuva 7 dias em Western France"},"metric":"open_meteo_7d_precip_forecast","value":3.7,"unit":"mm/week","observationDate":"2026-06-06 to 2026-06-12","confidence":79,"producerRead":{"en":"Western France: 3.7 mm rain forecast over 7 days, 6 dry days, 22.8 C air-temperature high, 20.6 C apparent high, and 8.5 C low. Use this before moving cattle, changing supplement, buying hay, or holding weight through the next gain window.","es":"Western France: 3.7 mm de lluvia previstos en 7 días, 6 días secos, máxima de aire de 22.8 C, sensación máxima de 20.6 C y mínima de 8.5 C. Úsalo antes de mover ganado, cambiar suplemento, comprar heno o retener peso en la próxima ventana de ganancia.","pt":"Western France: 3.7 mm de chuva previstos em 7 dias, 6 dias secos, máxima do ar de 22.8 C, sensação máxima de 20.6 C e mínima de 8.5 C. Use antes de mover gado, mudar suplemento, comprar feno ou reter peso na próxima janela de ganho."},"sourceUrl":"https://api.open-meteo.com/v1/forecast?latitude=48.1&longitude=-1.7&daily=temperature_2m_max%2Ctemperature_2m_min%2Capparent_temperature_max%2Cprecipitation_sum%2Cet0_fao_evapotranspiration&forecast_days=7&timezone=auto"},{"id":"open-meteo-water-demand-western-france","sourceName":"Open-Meteo global weather forecast","label":{"en":"Western France 7-day water demand forecast","es":"Demanda de agua 7 días en Western France","pt":"Demanda de água 7 dias em Western France"},"metric":"open_meteo_7d_water_demand_forecast","value":26.1,"unit":"mm/week","observationDate":"2026-06-06 to 2026-06-12","confidence":70,"producerRead":{"en":"Western France: 26.1 mm/week reference evapotranspiration and 20.6 C apparent-temperature high are forecast. Pair this with rainfall to judge water checks, shade, dairy heat stress, pasture recovery, and irrigation/feed-crop pressure.","es":"Western France: se prevén 26.1 mm/semana de evapotranspiración de referencia y 20.6 C de sensación máxima. Cruza esto con lluvia para revisar agua, sombra, estrés lechero, recuperación de pasto y presión de riego/cultivos de alimento.","pt":"Western France: estão previstos 26.1 mm/semana de evapotranspiração de referência e 20.6 C de sensação máxima. Cruze com chuva para checar água, sombra, estresse leiteiro, recuperação de pasto e pressão de irrigação/culturas para ração."},"sourceUrl":"https://api.open-meteo.com/v1/forecast?latitude=48.1&longitude=-1.7&daily=temperature_2m_max%2Ctemperature_2m_min%2Capparent_temperature_max%2Cprecipitation_sum%2Cet0_fao_evapotranspiration&forecast_days=7&timezone=auto"},{"id":"open-meteo-forecast-netherlands-dairy","sourceName":"Open-Meteo global weather forecast","label":{"en":"Netherlands dairy belt 7-day rain forecast","es":"Pronóstico de lluvia 7 días en Netherlands dairy belt","pt":"Previsão de chuva 7 dias em Netherlands dairy belt"},"metric":"open_meteo_7d_precip_forecast","value":25.2,"unit":"mm/week","observationDate":"2026-06-06 to 2026-06-12","confidence":70,"producerRead":{"en":"Netherlands dairy belt: 25.2 mm rain forecast over 7 days, 2 dry days, 20.8 C air-temperature high, 19.9 C apparent high, and 9.0 C low. Use this before moving cattle, changing supplement, buying hay, or holding weight through the next gain window.","es":"Netherlands dairy belt: 25.2 mm de lluvia previstos en 7 días, 2 días secos, máxima de aire de 20.8 C, sensación máxima de 19.9 C y mínima de 9.0 C. Úsalo antes de mover ganado, cambiar suplemento, comprar heno o retener peso en la próxima ventana de ganancia.","pt":"Netherlands dairy belt: 25.2 mm de chuva previstos em 7 dias, 2 dias secos, máxima do ar de 20.8 C, sensação máxima de 19.9 C e mínima de 9.0 C. Use antes de mover gado, mudar suplemento, comprar feno ou reter peso na próxima janela de ganho."},"sourceUrl":"https://api.open-meteo.com/v1/forecast?latitude=52.2&longitude=5.3&daily=temperature_2m_max%2Ctemperature_2m_min%2Capparent_temperature_max%2Cprecipitation_sum%2Cet0_fao_evapotranspiration&forecast_days=7&timezone=auto"},{"id":"open-meteo-water-demand-netherlands-dairy","sourceName":"Open-Meteo global weather forecast","label":{"en":"Netherlands dairy belt 7-day water demand forecast","es":"Demanda de agua 7 días en Netherlands dairy belt","pt":"Demanda de água 7 dias em Netherlands dairy belt"},"metric":"open_meteo_7d_water_demand_forecast","value":20.2,"unit":"mm/week","observationDate":"2026-06-06 to 2026-06-12","confidence":70,"producerRead":{"en":"Netherlands dairy belt: 20.2 mm/week reference evapotranspiration and 19.9 C apparent-temperature high are forecast. Pair this with rainfall to judge water checks, shade, dairy heat stress, pasture recovery, and irrigation/feed-crop pressure.","es":"Netherlands dairy belt: se prevén 20.2 mm/semana de evapotranspiración de referencia y 19.9 C de sensación máxima. Cruza esto con lluvia para revisar agua, sombra, estrés lechero, recuperación de pasto y presión de riego/cultivos de alimento.","pt":"Netherlands dairy belt: estão previstos 20.2 mm/semana de evapotranspiração de referência e 19.9 C de sensação máxima. Cruze com chuva para checar água, sombra, estresse leiteiro, recuperação de pasto e pressão de irrigação/culturas para ração."},"sourceUrl":"https://api.open-meteo.com/v1/forecast?latitude=52.2&longitude=5.3&daily=temperature_2m_max%2Ctemperature_2m_min%2Capparent_temperature_max%2Cprecipitation_sum%2Cet0_fao_evapotranspiration&forecast_days=7&timezone=auto"},{"id":"open-meteo-forecast-france-west","sourceName":"Open-Meteo global weather forecast","label":{"en":"Western France 7-day rain forecast","es":"Pronóstico de lluvia 7 días en Western France","pt":"Previsão de chuva 7 dias em Western France"},"metric":"open_meteo_7d_precip_forecast","value":2.9,"unit":"mm/week","observationDate":"2026-06-06 to 2026-06-12","confidence":79,"producerRead":{"en":"Western France: 2.9 mm rain forecast over 7 days, 6 dry days, 23.8 C air-temperature high, 23.4 C apparent high, and 7.9 C low. Use this before moving cattle, changing supplement, buying hay, or holding weight through the next gain window.","es":"Western France: 2.9 mm de lluvia previstos en 7 días, 6 días secos, máxima de aire de 23.8 C, sensación máxima de 23.4 C y mínima de 7.9 C. Úsalo antes de mover ganado, cambiar suplemento, comprar heno o retener peso en la próxima ventana de ganancia.","pt":"Western France: 2.9 mm de chuva previstos em 7 dias, 6 dias secos, máxima do ar de 23.8 C, sensação máxima de 23.4 C e mínima de 7.9 C. Use antes de mover gado, mudar suplemento, comprar feno ou reter peso na próxima janela de ganho."},"sourceUrl":"https://api.open-meteo.com/v1/forecast?latitude=47.5&longitude=-1.2&daily=temperature_2m_max%2Ctemperature_2m_min%2Capparent_temperature_max%2Cprecipitation_sum%2Cet0_fao_evapotranspiration&forecast_days=7&timezone=auto"}],"driverImpacts":[{"id":"fas-psd-e4-sorghum-feed-balance-sheet-impact","sectors":["feed","crops","beef","dairy"],"severity":"high","confidence":90,"title":{"en":"European Union PSD sorghum feed balance updates the long-cycle supply read","es":"Unión Europea PSD balance de sorgo para alimento actualiza la lectura de oferta de ciclo largo","pt":"União Europeia PSD balanço de sorgo para ração atualiza a leitura de oferta de ciclo longo"},"signal":{"en":"1,140 thousand mt in USDA FAS PSD for European Union. The balance sheet is -14.0% versus 2025, so read it against local prices instead of treating daily headlines as isolated events.","es":"1,140 miles de t en USDA FAS PSD para European Union. El balance es -14.0% versus 2025; leerlo contra precios locales en vez de tratar titulares diarios como eventos aislados.","pt":"1,140 mil t no USDA FAS PSD para European Union. O balanco e -14.0% versus 2025; leia contra precos locais em vez de tratar manchetes diarias como eventos isolados."},"affects":{"en":"Feed availability, import exposure, ration coverage, feeder bids, retained-weight economics, and crop-to-cattle margin.","es":"Disponibilidad de alimento, exposicion importadora, cobertura de racion, invernada, kilos retenidos y margen cultivo-ganado.","pt":"Disponibilidade de racao, exposicao a importacao, cobertura de dieta, recria, peso retido e margem lavoura-gado."},"producerDecision":{"en":"Use the PSD feed balance with delivered corn, meal, hay, freight, and weather before locking ration coverage or holding cattle for more gain.","es":"Usar el balance PSD de alimento con maiz entregado, harina, heno, flete y clima antes de cubrir racion o retener kilos.","pt":"Usar o balanco PSD de racao com milho entregue, farelo, feno, frete e clima antes de cobrir dieta ou reter peso."},"sourceIds":["usda-fas"]},{"id":"gdt-events-europe-smp-dairy-margin-impact","sectors":["dairy","beef","feed"],"severity":"high","confidence":89,"title":{"en":"Europe GDT Skimmilk Powders changes dairy margin pressure","es":"Europe GDT Skimmilk Powders cambia la presion de margen lechero","pt":"Europe GDT Skimmilk Powders muda a pressao de margem do leite"},"signal":{"en":"3,457 $/mt in the latest Global Dairy Trade public results. The event-to-event index move is -3.0%.","es":"3,457 USD/t en los resultados publicos recientes de Global Dairy Trade. El cambio entre eventos es -3.0%.","pt":"3,457 USD/t nos resultados publicos recentes da Global Dairy Trade. A mudanca entre eventos e -3.0%."},"affects":{"en":"Milk-check expectations, ration tolerance, cull timing, replacement appetite, dairy-beef supply, processor support, and export-linked demand.","es":"Pago esperado de leche, tolerancia a racion, descarte, reposicion, oferta de carne lechera, soporte industrial y demanda exportadora.","pt":"Expectativa de pagamento do leite, tolerancia a racao, descarte, reposicao, oferta de carne leiteira, suporte industrial e demanda externa."},"producerDecision":{"en":"Stress-test the milk check against delivered feed before adding ration cost, delaying culls, or keeping marginal cows another cycle.","es":"Probar el pago de leche contra alimento entregado antes de sumar racion, demorar descarte o mantener vacas marginales otro ciclo.","pt":"Teste o pagamento do leite contra racao entregue antes de aumentar dieta, atrasar descarte ou manter vacas marginais outro ciclo."},"sourceIds":["gdt-events"]},{"id":"open-meteo-forecast-western-france-forward-forage-impact","sectors":["beef","dairy","feed","crops"],"severity":"high","confidence":87,"title":{"en":"Western France 7-day rain forecast: next-week forage forecast","es":"Pronóstico de lluvia 7 días en Western France: pronóstico de forraje próxima semana","pt":"Previsão de chuva 7 dias em Western France: previsão de pasto próxima semana"},"signal":{"en":"3.7 mm/week forecast for the next 7 days. Read it as a forward pasture, water, hay, and sale-timing signal, not as a historical weather note.","es":"3.7 mm/semana previstos para los próximos 7 días. Léelo como señal futura de pasto, agua, heno y momento de venta, no como nota histórica de clima.","pt":"3.7 mm/semana previstos para os próximos 7 dias. Leia como sinal futuro de pasto, água, feno e momento de venda, não como nota histórica de clima."},"affects":{"en":"Pasture recovery, heat load, water checks, supplement coverage, hay buying, milk yield, and whether the next weight gain still pays.","es":"Recuperación de pasto, carga de calor, agua, cobertura de suplemento, compra de heno, leche y si la próxima ganancia de peso todavía paga.","pt":"Recuperação de pasto, carga térmica, água, cobertura de suplemento, compra de feno, leite e se o próximo ganho de peso ainda paga."},"producerDecision":{"en":"Move the next-week forecast into the sale-or-hold math: count forage days, check water, price hay, and avoid holding cattle for gain that weather may not deliver.","es":"Meter el pronóstico semanal en la cuenta de vender o retener: contar días de pasto, revisar agua, poner precio al heno y evitar retener ganado por una ganancia que el clima no dará.","pt":"Colocar a previsão semanal na conta de vender ou reter: contar dias de pasto, revisar água, precificar feno e evitar reter gado por ganho que o clima pode não entregar."},"sourceIds":["open-meteo-forecast"]},{"id":"open-meteo-forecast-france-west-forward-forage-impact","sectors":["beef","dairy","feed","crops"],"severity":"high","confidence":87,"title":{"en":"Western France 7-day rain forecast: next-week forage forecast","es":"Pronóstico de lluvia 7 días en Western France: pronóstico de forraje próxima semana","pt":"Previsão de chuva 7 dias em Western France: previsão de pasto próxima semana"},"signal":{"en":"2.9 mm/week forecast for the next 7 days. Read it as a forward pasture, water, hay, and sale-timing signal, not as a historical weather note.","es":"2.9 mm/semana previstos para los próximos 7 días. Léelo como señal futura de pasto, agua, heno y momento de venta, no como nota histórica de clima.","pt":"2.9 mm/semana previstos para os próximos 7 dias. Leia como sinal futuro de pasto, água, feno e momento de venda, não como nota histórica de clima."},"affects":{"en":"Pasture recovery, heat load, water checks, supplement coverage, hay buying, milk yield, and whether the next weight gain still pays.","es":"Recuperación de pasto, carga de calor, agua, cobertura de suplemento, compra de heno, leche y si la próxima ganancia de peso todavía paga.","pt":"Recuperação de pasto, carga térmica, água, cobertura de suplemento, compra de feno, leite e se o próximo ganho de peso ainda paga."},"producerDecision":{"en":"Move the next-week forecast into the sale-or-hold math: count forage days, check water, price hay, and avoid holding cattle for gain that weather may not deliver.","es":"Meter el pronóstico semanal en la cuenta de vender o retener: contar días de pasto, revisar agua, poner precio al heno y evitar retener ganado por una ganancia que el clima no dará.","pt":"Colocar a previsão semanal na conta de vender ou reter: contar dias de pasto, revisar água, precificar feno e evitar reter gado por ganho que o clima pode não entregar."},"sourceIds":["open-meteo-forecast"]},{"id":"fao-food-price-sugar-europe-global-food-margin-impact","sectors":["feed","crops","beef","dairy"],"severity":"high","confidence":84,"title":{"en":"Europe FAO Sugar Price Index changes global margin context","es":"Índice FAO de precios de azúcar en Europa cambia el contexto global de margen","pt":"Índice FAO de preços do açúcar em Europa muda o contexto global de margem"},"signal":{"en":"FAO Sugar Price Index is 95.1 for 2026-05, +7.5% month over month and -13.1% year over year. Sugar price moves cane allocation, ethanol economics, and crop competition in Brazil and other cane regions.","es":"Índice FAO de precios de azúcar está en 95.1 para 2026-05, +7.5% mes contra mes y -13.1% año contra año. El azúcar mueve caña, etanol y competencia agrícola en Brasil y otras regiones cañeras.","pt":"Índice FAO de preços do açúcar está em 95.1 para 2026-05, +7.5% mês contra mês e -13.1% ano contra ano. Açúcar move alocação de cana, etanol e competição agrícola no Brasil e em outras regiões canavieiras."},"affects":{"en":"Cane allocation, ethanol pull, crop competition, Brazil input pressure, and feed-crop land use.","es":"Uso de caña, etanol, competencia agrícola, presión en Brasil y uso de tierra para alimento.","pt":"Alocação de cana, etanol, competição agrícola, pressão no Brasil e uso de terra para ração."},"producerDecision":{"en":"Reprice feed coverage, crop inventory, and the next gain period before assuming local feed offers will hold.","es":"Recalcular cobertura de alimento, inventario agrícola y próxima ganancia antes de asumir que el alimento local se mantiene.","pt":"Recalcule cobertura de ração, estoque agrícola e próximo ganho antes de assumir que ofertas locais vão segurar."},"sourceIds":["fao-food-price"]},{"id":"world-bank-pink-sheet-crude-oil-europe-commodity-margin-impact","sectors":["feed","crops","beef","dairy"],"severity":"high","confidence":84,"title":{"en":"Europe Global Brent crude oil price is moving the margin stack","es":"Precio global de petróleo Brent en Europa mueve la pila de margen","pt":"Preço global do petróleo Brent em Europa move a pilha de margem"},"signal":{"en":"107.5 $/bbl in the latest World Bank commodity sheet. Read this against pasture input, fertilizer, diesel, freight, and working capital.","es":"107.5 USD/bbl en la hoja reciente de commodities del Banco Mundial. Leerlo contra insumos de pasto, fertilizante, diésel, flete y capital de trabajo.","pt":"107.5 USD/bbl na planilha recente de commodities do Banco Mundial. Leia contra insumos de pasto, fertilizante, diesel, frete e capital de giro."},"affects":{"en":"Pasture inputs, crop-feed cost, freight, hay replacement, working capital, and dairy ration pressure.","es":"Insumos de pasto, costo de alimento agrícola, flete, heno, capital y ración lechera.","pt":"Insumos de pasto, custo de culturas para ração, frete, feno, capital e ração leiteira."},"producerDecision":{"en":"Reprice the next gain period, forage plan, and delivered-feed bill before buying inputs or holding cattle longer.","es":"Recalcular próximo período de ganancia, forraje y alimento entregado antes de comprar insumos o retener ganado.","pt":"Recalcule próximo período de ganho, forragem e ração entregue antes de comprar insumos ou reter gado."},"sourceIds":["world-bank-pink-sheet"]},{"id":"world-bank-pink-sheet-dap-europe-commodity-margin-impact","sectors":["feed","crops","beef","dairy"],"severity":"high","confidence":84,"title":{"en":"Europe Global DAP fertilizer price is moving the margin stack","es":"Precio global de fertilizante DAP en Europa mueve la pila de margen","pt":"Preço global do fertilizante DAP em Europa move a pilha de margem"},"signal":{"en":"770 $/mt in the latest World Bank commodity sheet. Read this against pasture input, fertilizer, diesel, freight, and working capital.","es":"770 USD/t en la hoja reciente de commodities del Banco Mundial. Leerlo contra insumos de pasto, fertilizante, diésel, flete y capital de trabajo.","pt":"770 USD/t na planilha recente de commodities do Banco Mundial. Leia contra insumos de pasto, fertilizante, diesel, frete e capital de giro."},"affects":{"en":"Pasture inputs, crop-feed cost, freight, hay replacement, working capital, and dairy ration pressure.","es":"Insumos de pasto, costo de alimento agrícola, flete, heno, capital y ración lechera.","pt":"Insumos de pasto, custo de culturas para ração, frete, feno, capital e ração leiteira."},"producerDecision":{"en":"Reprice the next gain period, forage plan, and delivered-feed bill before buying inputs or holding cattle longer.","es":"Recalcular próximo período de ganancia, forraje y alimento entregado antes de comprar insumos o retener ganado.","pt":"Recalcule próximo período de ganho, forragem e ração entregue antes de comprar insumos ou reter gado."},"sourceIds":["world-bank-pink-sheet"]},{"id":"world-bank-pink-sheet-urea-europe-commodity-margin-impact","sectors":["feed","crops","beef","dairy"],"severity":"high","confidence":84,"title":{"en":"Europe Global urea fertilizer price is moving the margin stack","es":"Precio global de urea en Europa mueve la pila de margen","pt":"Preço global da ureia em Europa move a pilha de margem"},"signal":{"en":"771 $/mt in the latest World Bank commodity sheet. Read this against pasture input, fertilizer, diesel, freight, and working capital.","es":"771 USD/t en la hoja reciente de commodities del Banco Mundial. Leerlo contra insumos de pasto, fertilizante, diésel, flete y capital de trabajo.","pt":"771 USD/t na planilha recente de commodities do Banco Mundial. Leia contra insumos de pasto, fertilizante, diesel, frete e capital de giro."},"affects":{"en":"Pasture inputs, crop-feed cost, freight, hay replacement, working capital, and dairy ration pressure.","es":"Insumos de pasto, costo de alimento agrícola, flete, heno, capital y ración lechera.","pt":"Insumos de pasto, custo de culturas para ração, frete, feno, capital e ração leiteira."},"producerDecision":{"en":"Reprice the next gain period, forage plan, and delivered-feed bill before buying inputs or holding cattle longer.","es":"Recalcular próximo período de ganancia, forraje y alimento entregado antes de comprar insumos o retener ganado.","pt":"Recalcule próximo período de ganho, forragem e ração entregue antes de comprar insumos ou reter gado."},"sourceIds":["world-bank-pink-sheet"]}],"temporalSignals":[{"id":"nasa-power-ireland-rainfall-baseline","sourceName":"NASA POWER","metric":"rainfall_vs_prior_30d","currentValue":41.5,"baselineValue":18.3,"changePercent":128,"direction":"improving","confidence":82,"title":{"en":"Ireland rainfall against the prior 30 days","es":"Lluvia en Ireland contra los 30 días previos","pt":"Chuva em Ireland contra os 30 dias anteriores"},"signal":{"en":"Ireland received 41.5 mm in the latest 7-day window versus a prior 30-day pace of 18.3 mm/week.","es":"Ireland recibió 41.5 mm en los últimos 7 días contra un ritmo previo de 18.3 mm/semana.","pt":"Ireland recebeu 41.5 mm nos últimos 7 dias contra ritmo anterior de 18.3 mm/semana."},"producerDecision":{"en":"Compare the next 2-8 weeks of forage against feed cost before holding cattle for more weight.","es":"Comparar las próximas 2-8 semanas de forraje contra costo de alimento antes de retener ganado.","pt":"Comparar as próximas 2-8 semanas de pasto contra custo de ração antes de reter gado."},"sourceUrl":"https://power.larc.nasa.gov/api/temporal/daily/point?parameters=T2M%2CPRECTOTCORR&community=AG&longitude=-8.2&latitude=53.4&start=20260428&end=20260603&format=JSON"}],"marketEvents":[{"id":"google-news-rss-europe-dairy-beef-us-races-to-contain-flesh-eating-parasite-screwworm-reports-no-further-cases-reuters-2026-06-04","sourceName":"Google News public search RSS","category":{"en":"Animal health","es":"Sanidad animal","pt":"Sanidade animal"},"severity":"high","publishedAt":"2026-06-04T16:53:00.000Z","title":{"en":"US races to contain flesh-eating parasite screwworm, reports no further cases - Reuters","es":"US races to contain flesh-eating parasite screwworm, reports no further cases - Reuters","pt":"US races to contain flesh-eating parasite screwworm, reports no further cases - Reuters"},"summary":{"en":"Public item selected because it can affect livestock movement, buyer access, and biosecurity: US races to contain flesh-eating parasite screwworm, reports no further cases - Reuters","es":"Ítem público seleccionado porque puede afectar movimiento, acceso de compradores y bioseguridad: US races to contain flesh-eating parasite screwworm, reports no further cases - Reuters","pt":"Item público selecionado porque pode afetar movimentação, acesso de compradores e biossegurança: US races to contain flesh-eating parasite screwworm, reports no further cases - Reuters"},"producerDecision":{"en":"Check movement, replacement purchases, and export-linked commitments before assuming normal buyer access.","es":"Revisar movimiento, reposición y compromisos exportadores antes de asumir acceso normal.","pt":"Revisar movimentação, reposição e compromissos exportadores antes de assumir acesso normal."},"sourceUrl":"https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMirwFBVV95cUxQNHpEZTNTbzV6TUNwX2dsQlotNEVYZElrMW9wbUp0RmpObHVWZXhCSEJnM0c0MnFtdWtVdzBKRW5GRWl5Q1NQZTY0a0pjT2hVWWh5U1dMcjlfM3dTSWtyZ1p2X1cwRERuenJXZlM2Y2ZXcVRCLUZZZTNtZk5QUzBGSW9RY1YyQjJBWmNReGFocUw1VmRYeU9uazhWWVdXam1JY19laThycGhZaVJ1VFZN?oc=5","confidence":82},{"id":"fao-newsroom-rss-fao-report-highlights-long-term-economic-case-for-tackling-antimicrobial-resistance--2026-06-03","sourceName":"FAO Newsroom","category":{"en":"Animal health","es":"Sanidad animal","pt":"Sanidade animal"},"severity":"high","publishedAt":"2026-06-03T12:00:00.000Z","title":{"en":"FAO report highlights long-term economic case for tackling antimicrobial resistance in livestock","es":"FAO report highlights long-term economic case for tackling antimicrobial resistance in livestock","pt":"FAO report highlights long-term economic case for tackling antimicrobial resistance in livestock"},"summary":{"en":"Public item selected because it can affect livestock movement, buyer access, and biosecurity: FAO report highlights long-term economic case for tackling antimicrobial resistance in livestock","es":"Ítem público seleccionado porque puede afectar movimiento, acceso de compradores y bioseguridad: FAO report highlights long-term economic case for tackling antimicrobial resistance in livestock","pt":"Item público selecionado porque pode afetar movimentação, acesso de compradores e biossegurança: FAO report highlights long-term economic case for tackling antimicrobial resistance in livestock"},"producerDecision":{"en":"Check movement, replacement purchases, and export-linked commitments before assuming normal buyer access.","es":"Revisar movimiento, reposición y compromisos exportadores antes de asumir acceso normal.","pt":"Revisar movimentação, reposição e compromissos exportadores antes de assumir acesso normal."},"sourceUrl":"https://www.fao.org/newsroom/detail/fao-report-highlights-long-term-economic-case-for-tackling-antimicrobial-resistance-in-livestock/en","confidence":82},{"id":"fao-newsroom-rss-strait-of-hormuz-time-running-out-to-avert-global-food-security-crisis-fao-warns-2026-05-26","sourceName":"FAO Newsroom","category":{"en":"Conflict and logistics","es":"Conflicto y logística","pt":"Conflito e logística"},"severity":"high","publishedAt":"2026-05-26T12:00:00.000Z","title":{"en":"Strait of Hormuz: Time running out to avert global food security crisis, FAO warns","es":"Strait of Hormuz: Time running out to avert global food security crisis, FAO warns","pt":"Strait of Hormuz: Time running out to avert global food security crisis, FAO warns"},"summary":{"en":"Public item selected because war, sanctions, ports, canals, or shipping routes can change delivered feed, fertilizer, fuel, freight, and buyer access: Strait of Hormuz: Time running out to avert global food security crisis, FAO warns","es":"Ítem público seleccionado porque guerra, sanciones, puertos, canales o rutas marítimas pueden cambiar alimento entregado, fertilizante, combustible, flete y compradores: Strait of Hormuz: Time running out to avert global food security crisis, FAO warns","pt":"Item público selecionado porque guerra, sanções, portos, canais ou rotas marítimas podem mudar ração entregue, fertilizante, combustível, frete e compradores: Strait of Hormuz: Time running out to avert global food security crisis, FAO warns"},"producerDecision":{"en":"Check delivered feed, fertilizer, fuel, freight, and route exposure before holding cattle longer or locking crop-input purchases.","es":"Revisar alimento entregado, fertilizante, combustible, flete y rutas antes de retener ganado o fijar insumos.","pt":"Revisar ração entregue, fertilizante, combustível, frete e rotas antes de reter gado ou travar insumos."},"sourceUrl":"https://www.fao.org/newsroom/detail/strait-of-hormuz--time-running-out-to-avert-global-food-security-crisis--fao-warns/en","confidence":82},{"id":"fao-newsroom-rss-strait-of-hormuz-conflict-threatens-global-food-prices-as-fao-warns-time-is-running--2026-05-20","sourceName":"FAO Newsroom","category":{"en":"Conflict and logistics","es":"Conflicto y logística","pt":"Conflito e logística"},"severity":"high","publishedAt":"2026-05-20T12:00:00.000Z","title":{"en":"Strait of Hormuz conflict threatens global food prices as FAO warns time is running out","es":"Strait of Hormuz conflict threatens global food prices as FAO warns time is running out","pt":"Strait of Hormuz conflict threatens global food prices as FAO warns time is running out"},"summary":{"en":"Public item selected because war, sanctions, ports, canals, or shipping routes can change delivered feed, fertilizer, fuel, freight, and buyer access: Strait of Hormuz conflict threatens global food prices as FAO warns time is running out","es":"Ítem público seleccionado porque guerra, sanciones, puertos, canales o rutas marítimas pueden cambiar alimento entregado, fertilizante, combustible, flete y compradores: Strait of Hormuz conflict threatens global food prices as FAO warns time is running out","pt":"Item público selecionado porque guerra, sanções, portos, canais ou rotas marítimas podem mudar ração entregue, fertilizante, combustível, frete e compradores: Strait of Hormuz conflict threatens global food prices as FAO warns time is running out"},"producerDecision":{"en":"Check delivered feed, fertilizer, fuel, freight, and route exposure before holding cattle longer or locking crop-input purchases.","es":"Revisar alimento entregado, fertilizante, combustible, flete y rutas antes de retener ganado o fijar insumos.","pt":"Revisar ração entregue, fertilizante, combustível, frete e rotas antes de reter gado ou travar insumos."},"sourceUrl":"https://www.fao.org/newsroom/detail/strait-of-hormuz-conflict-threatens-global-food-prices-as-fao-warns-time-is-running-out/en","confidence":82},{"id":"fao-newsroom-rss-strait-of-hormuz-crisis-fertilizer-scarcity-will-affect-next-harvests-and-food-suppl-2026-05-07","sourceName":"FAO Newsroom","category":{"en":"Conflict and logistics","es":"Conflicto y logística","pt":"Conflito e logística"},"severity":"high","publishedAt":"2026-05-07T12:00:00.000Z","title":{"en":"Strait of Hormuz crisis: Fertilizer scarcity will affect next harvests and food supplies, FAO warns","es":"Strait of Hormuz crisis: Fertilizer scarcity will affect next harvests and food supplies, FAO warns","pt":"Strait of Hormuz crisis: Fertilizer scarcity will affect next harvests and food supplies, FAO warns"},"summary":{"en":"Public item selected because war, sanctions, ports, canals, or shipping routes can change delivered feed, fertilizer, fuel, freight, and buyer access: Strait of Hormuz crisis: Fertilizer scarcity will affect next harvests and food supplies, FAO warns","es":"Ítem público seleccionado porque guerra, sanciones, puertos, canales o rutas marítimas pueden cambiar alimento entregado, fertilizante, combustible, flete y compradores: Strait of Hormuz crisis: Fertilizer scarcity will affect next harvests and food supplies, FAO warns","pt":"Item público selecionado porque guerra, sanções, portos, canais ou rotas marítimas podem mudar ração entregue, fertilizante, combustível, frete e compradores: Strait of Hormuz crisis: Fertilizer scarcity will affect next harvests and food supplies, FAO warns"},"producerDecision":{"en":"Check delivered feed, fertilizer, fuel, freight, and route exposure before holding cattle longer or locking crop-input purchases.","es":"Revisar alimento entregado, fertilizante, combustible, flete y rutas antes de retener ganado o fijar insumos.","pt":"Revisar ração entregue, fertilizante, combustível, frete e rotas antes de reter gado ou travar insumos."},"sourceUrl":"https://www.fao.org/newsroom/detail/strait-of-hormuz-crisis--fertilizer-scarcity-will-affect-next-harvests-and-food-supplies--fao-warns/en","confidence":82},{"id":"agriland-rss-agriland-and-dairybeef-500-to-provide-tips-on-boosting-calf-performance-2026-06-06","sourceName":"Agriland","category":{"en":"Dairy margin","es":"Margen lechero","pt":"Margem do leite"},"severity":"medium","publishedAt":"2026-06-06T09:00:00.000Z","title":{"en":"Agriland and DairyBeef 500 to provide tips on boosting calf performance","es":"Agriland and DairyBeef 500 to provide tips on boosting calf performance","pt":"Agriland and DairyBeef 500 to provide tips on boosting calf performance"},"summary":{"en":"Public item selected because dairy margin signals can change ration decisions, cull timing, and dairy-beef supply: Agriland and DairyBeef 500 to provide tips on boosting calf performance","es":"Ítem público seleccionado porque señales de margen lechero pueden cambiar dieta, descarte y oferta de carne lechera: Agriland and DairyBeef 500 to provide tips on boosting calf performance","pt":"Item público selecionado porque sinais de margem do leite podem mudar dieta, descarte e oferta de carne leiteira: Agriland and DairyBeef 500 to provide tips on boosting calf performance"},"producerDecision":{"en":"Reprice ration, cull timing, and replacement appetite before monthly milk checks settle.","es":"Recalcular dieta, descarte y reposición antes del pago mensual de leche.","pt":"Recalcular dieta, descarte e reposição antes do pagamento mensal do leite."},"sourceUrl":"https://www.agriland.ie/farming-news/agriland-and-dairybeef-500-to-provide-tips-on-boosting-calf-performance/","confidence":78},{"id":"agriland-rss-major-food-companies-lagging-on-methane-targets-report-2026-06-06","sourceName":"Agriland","category":{"en":"Dairy margin","es":"Margen lechero","pt":"Margem do leite"},"severity":"medium","publishedAt":"2026-06-06T08:00:00.000Z","title":{"en":"Major food companies ‘lagging’ on methane targets – report","es":"Major food companies ‘lagging’ on methane targets – report","pt":"Major food companies ‘lagging’ on methane targets – report"},"summary":{"en":"Public item selected because dairy margin signals can change ration decisions, cull timing, and dairy-beef supply: Major food companies ‘lagging’ on methane targets – report","es":"Ítem público seleccionado porque señales de margen lechero pueden cambiar dieta, descarte y oferta de carne lechera: Major food companies ‘lagging’ on methane targets – report","pt":"Item público selecionado porque sinais de margem do leite podem mudar dieta, descarte e oferta de carne leiteira: Major food companies ‘lagging’ on methane targets – report"},"producerDecision":{"en":"Reprice ration, cull timing, and replacement appetite before monthly milk checks settle.","es":"Recalcular dieta, descarte y reposición antes del pago mensual de leche.","pt":"Recalcular dieta, descarte e reposição antes do pagamento mensal do leite."},"sourceUrl":"https://www.agriland.ie/farming-news/major-food-companies-lagging-on-methane-targets-report/","confidence":78},{"id":"agriland-rss-table-beef-carcass-performance-data-grouped-by-cbv-2026-06-06","sourceName":"Agriland","category":{"en":"Dairy margin","es":"Margen lechero","pt":"Margem do leite"},"severity":"medium","publishedAt":"2026-06-06T05:00:00.000Z","title":{"en":"Table: Beef carcass performance data grouped by CBV","es":"Table: Beef carcass performance data grouped by CBV","pt":"Table: Beef carcass performance data grouped by CBV"},"summary":{"en":"Public item selected because dairy margin signals can change ration decisions, cull timing, and dairy-beef supply: Table: Beef carcass performance data grouped by CBV","es":"Ítem público seleccionado porque señales de margen lechero pueden cambiar dieta, descarte y oferta de carne lechera: Table: Beef carcass performance data grouped by CBV","pt":"Item público selecionado porque sinais de margem do leite podem mudar dieta, descarte e oferta de carne leiteira: Table: Beef carcass performance data grouped by CBV"},"producerDecision":{"en":"Reprice ration, cull timing, and replacement appetite before monthly milk checks settle.","es":"Recalcular dieta, descarte y reposición antes del pago mensual de leche.","pt":"Recalcular dieta, descarte e reposição antes do pagamento mensal do leite."},"sourceUrl":"https://www.agriland.ie/farming-news/table-beef-carcass-performance-data-grouped-by-cbv/","confidence":78}]},{"regionId":"africa-asia","regionName":{"en":"Africa and Asia","es":"África y Asia","pt":"África e Ásia"},"liveObservations":[{"id":"open-meteo-forecast-east-africa-dairy","sourceName":"Open-Meteo global weather forecast","label":{"en":"East Africa dairy belts 7-day rain forecast","es":"Pronóstico de lluvia 7 días en East Africa dairy belts","pt":"Previsão de chuva 7 dias em East Africa dairy belts"},"metric":"open_meteo_7d_precip_forecast","value":0,"unit":"mm/week","observationDate":"2026-06-06 to 2026-06-12","confidence":79,"producerRead":{"en":"East Africa dairy belts: 0.0 mm rain forecast over 7 days, 7 dry days, 28.5 C air-temperature high, 27.2 C apparent high, and 14.8 C low. Use this before moving cattle, changing supplement, buying hay, or holding weight through the next gain window.","es":"East Africa dairy belts: 0.0 mm de lluvia previstos en 7 días, 7 días secos, máxima de aire de 28.5 C, sensación máxima de 27.2 C y mínima de 14.8 C. Úsalo antes de mover ganado, cambiar suplemento, comprar heno o retener peso en la próxima ventana de ganancia.","pt":"East Africa dairy belts: 0.0 mm de chuva previstos em 7 dias, 7 dias secos, máxima do ar de 28.5 C, sensação máxima de 27.2 C e mínima de 14.8 C. Use antes de mover gado, mudar suplemento, comprar feno ou reter peso na próxima janela de ganho."},"sourceUrl":"https://api.open-meteo.com/v1/forecast?latitude=0.5&longitude=36.8&daily=temperature_2m_max%2Ctemperature_2m_min%2Capparent_temperature_max%2Cprecipitation_sum%2Cet0_fao_evapotranspiration&forecast_days=7&timezone=auto"},{"id":"open-meteo-water-demand-east-africa-dairy","sourceName":"Open-Meteo global weather forecast","label":{"en":"East Africa dairy belts 7-day water demand forecast","es":"Demanda de agua 7 días en East Africa dairy belts","pt":"Demanda de água 7 dias em East Africa dairy belts"},"metric":"open_meteo_7d_water_demand_forecast","value":37.8,"unit":"mm/week","observationDate":"2026-06-06 to 2026-06-12","confidence":77,"producerRead":{"en":"East Africa dairy belts: 37.8 mm/week reference evapotranspiration and 27.2 C apparent-temperature high are forecast. Pair this with rainfall to judge water checks, shade, dairy heat stress, pasture recovery, and irrigation/feed-crop pressure.","es":"East Africa dairy belts: se prevén 37.8 mm/semana de evapotranspiración de referencia y 27.2 C de sensación máxima. Cruza esto con lluvia para revisar agua, sombra, estrés lechero, recuperación de pasto y presión de riego/cultivos de alimento.","pt":"East Africa dairy belts: estão previstos 37.8 mm/semana de evapotranspiração de referência e 27.2 C de sensação máxima. Cruze com chuva para checar água, sombra, estresse leiteiro, recuperação de pasto e pressão de irrigação/culturas para ração."},"sourceUrl":"https://api.open-meteo.com/v1/forecast?latitude=0.5&longitude=36.8&daily=temperature_2m_max%2Ctemperature_2m_min%2Capparent_temperature_max%2Cprecipitation_sum%2Cet0_fao_evapotranspiration&forecast_days=7&timezone=auto"},{"id":"open-meteo-forecast-south-asia-dairy","sourceName":"Open-Meteo global weather forecast","label":{"en":"South Asia dairy clusters 7-day rain forecast","es":"Pronóstico de lluvia 7 días en South Asia dairy clusters","pt":"Previsão de chuva 7 dias em South Asia dairy clusters"},"metric":"open_meteo_7d_precip_forecast","value":3.1,"unit":"mm/week","observationDate":"2026-06-06 to 2026-06-12","confidence":79,"producerRead":{"en":"South Asia dairy clusters: 3.1 mm rain forecast over 7 days, 6 dry days, 40.4 C air-temperature high, 43.1 C apparent high, and 27.2 C low. Use this before moving cattle, changing supplement, buying hay, or holding weight through the next gain window.","es":"South Asia dairy clusters: 3.1 mm de lluvia previstos en 7 días, 6 días secos, máxima de aire de 40.4 C, sensación máxima de 43.1 C y mínima de 27.2 C. Úsalo antes de mover ganado, cambiar suplemento, comprar heno o retener peso en la próxima ventana de ganancia.","pt":"South Asia dairy clusters: 3.1 mm de chuva previstos em 7 dias, 6 dias secos, máxima do ar de 40.4 C, sensação máxima de 43.1 C e mínima de 27.2 C. Use antes de mover gado, mudar suplemento, comprar feno ou reter peso na próxima janela de ganho."},"sourceUrl":"https://api.open-meteo.com/v1/forecast?latitude=23.4&longitude=78.8&daily=temperature_2m_max%2Ctemperature_2m_min%2Capparent_temperature_max%2Cprecipitation_sum%2Cet0_fao_evapotranspiration&forecast_days=7&timezone=auto"},{"id":"open-meteo-water-demand-south-asia-dairy","sourceName":"Open-Meteo global weather forecast","label":{"en":"South Asia dairy clusters 7-day water demand forecast","es":"Demanda de agua 7 días en South Asia dairy clusters","pt":"Demanda de água 7 dias em South Asia dairy clusters"},"metric":"open_meteo_7d_water_demand_forecast","value":53.8,"unit":"mm/week","observationDate":"2026-06-06 to 2026-06-12","confidence":81,"producerRead":{"en":"South Asia dairy clusters: 53.8 mm/week reference evapotranspiration and 43.1 C apparent-temperature high are forecast. Pair this with rainfall to judge water checks, shade, dairy heat stress, pasture recovery, and irrigation/feed-crop pressure.","es":"South Asia dairy clusters: se prevén 53.8 mm/semana de evapotranspiración de referencia y 43.1 C de sensación máxima. Cruza esto con lluvia para revisar agua, sombra, estrés lechero, recuperación de pasto y presión de riego/cultivos de alimento.","pt":"South Asia dairy clusters: estão previstos 53.8 mm/semana de evapotranspiração de referência e 43.1 C de sensação máxima. Cruze com chuva para checar água, sombra, estresse leiteiro, recuperação de pasto e pressão de irrigação/culturas para ração."},"sourceUrl":"https://api.open-meteo.com/v1/forecast?latitude=23.4&longitude=78.8&daily=temperature_2m_max%2Ctemperature_2m_min%2Capparent_temperature_max%2Cprecipitation_sum%2Cet0_fao_evapotranspiration&forecast_days=7&timezone=auto"},{"id":"open-meteo-forecast-gulf-import-corridor","sourceName":"Open-Meteo global weather forecast","label":{"en":"Gulf import corridors 7-day rain forecast","es":"Pronóstico de lluvia 7 días en Gulf import corridors","pt":"Previsão de chuva 7 dias em Gulf import corridors"},"metric":"open_meteo_7d_precip_forecast","value":0,"unit":"mm/week","observationDate":"2026-06-06 to 2026-06-12","confidence":79,"producerRead":{"en":"Gulf import corridors: 0.0 mm rain forecast over 7 days, 7 dry days, 43.4 C air-temperature high, 45.7 C apparent high, and 24.6 C low. Use this before moving cattle, changing supplement, buying hay, or holding weight through the next gain window.","es":"Gulf import corridors: 0.0 mm de lluvia previstos en 7 días, 7 días secos, máxima de aire de 43.4 C, sensación máxima de 45.7 C y mínima de 24.6 C. Úsalo antes de mover ganado, cambiar suplemento, comprar heno o retener peso en la próxima ventana de ganancia.","pt":"Gulf import corridors: 0.0 mm de chuva previstos em 7 dias, 7 dias secos, máxima do ar de 43.4 C, sensação máxima de 45.7 C e mínima de 24.6 C. Use antes de mover gado, mudar suplemento, comprar feno ou reter peso na próxima janela de ganho."},"sourceUrl":"https://api.open-meteo.com/v1/forecast?latitude=24.5&longitude=54.5&daily=temperature_2m_max%2Ctemperature_2m_min%2Capparent_temperature_max%2Cprecipitation_sum%2Cet0_fao_evapotranspiration&forecast_days=7&timezone=auto"},{"id":"open-meteo-water-demand-gulf-import-corridor","sourceName":"Open-Meteo global weather forecast","label":{"en":"Gulf import corridors 7-day water demand forecast","es":"Demanda de agua 7 días en Gulf import corridors","pt":"Demanda de água 7 dias em Gulf import corridors"},"metric":"open_meteo_7d_water_demand_forecast","value":54.7,"unit":"mm/week","observationDate":"2026-06-06 to 2026-06-12","confidence":81,"producerRead":{"en":"Gulf import corridors: 54.7 mm/week reference evapotranspiration and 45.7 C apparent-temperature high are forecast. Pair this with rainfall to judge water checks, shade, dairy heat stress, pasture recovery, and irrigation/feed-crop pressure.","es":"Gulf import corridors: se prevén 54.7 mm/semana de evapotranspiración de referencia y 45.7 C de sensación máxima. Cruza esto con lluvia para revisar agua, sombra, estrés lechero, recuperación de pasto y presión de riego/cultivos de alimento.","pt":"Gulf import corridors: estão previstos 54.7 mm/semana de evapotranspiração de referência e 45.7 C de sensação máxima. Cruze com chuva para checar água, sombra, estresse leiteiro, recuperação de pasto e pressão de irrigação/culturas para ração."},"sourceUrl":"https://api.open-meteo.com/v1/forecast?latitude=24.5&longitude=54.5&daily=temperature_2m_max%2Ctemperature_2m_min%2Capparent_temperature_max%2Cprecipitation_sum%2Cet0_fao_evapotranspiration&forecast_days=7&timezone=auto"},{"id":"open-meteo-forecast-south-africa-highveld","sourceName":"Open-Meteo global weather forecast","label":{"en":"South Africa Highveld 7-day rain forecast","es":"Pronóstico de lluvia 7 días en South Africa Highveld","pt":"Previsão de chuva 7 dias em South Africa Highveld"},"metric":"open_meteo_7d_precip_forecast","value":0,"unit":"mm/week","observationDate":"2026-06-06 to 2026-06-12","confidence":79,"producerRead":{"en":"South Africa Highveld: 0.0 mm rain forecast over 7 days, 7 dry days, 19.8 C air-temperature high, 16.6 C apparent high, and 2.1 C low. Use this before moving cattle, changing supplement, buying hay, or holding weight through the next gain window.","es":"South Africa Highveld: 0.0 mm de lluvia previstos en 7 días, 7 días secos, máxima de aire de 19.8 C, sensación máxima de 16.6 C y mínima de 2.1 C. Úsalo antes de mover ganado, cambiar suplemento, comprar heno o retener peso en la próxima ventana de ganancia.","pt":"South Africa Highveld: 0.0 mm de chuva previstos em 7 dias, 7 dias secos, máxima do ar de 19.8 C, sensação máxima de 16.6 C e mínima de 2.1 C. Use antes de mover gado, mudar suplemento, comprar feno ou reter peso na próxima janela de ganho."},"sourceUrl":"https://api.open-meteo.com/v1/forecast?latitude=-26.2&longitude=28&daily=temperature_2m_max%2Ctemperature_2m_min%2Capparent_temperature_max%2Cprecipitation_sum%2Cet0_fao_evapotranspiration&forecast_days=7&timezone=auto"},{"id":"open-meteo-water-demand-south-africa-highveld","sourceName":"Open-Meteo global weather forecast","label":{"en":"South Africa Highveld 7-day water demand forecast","es":"Demanda de agua 7 días en South Africa Highveld","pt":"Demanda de água 7 dias em South Africa Highveld"},"metric":"open_meteo_7d_water_demand_forecast","value":17.6,"unit":"mm/week","observationDate":"2026-06-06 to 2026-06-12","confidence":70,"producerRead":{"en":"South Africa Highveld: 17.6 mm/week reference evapotranspiration and 16.6 C apparent-temperature high are forecast. Pair this with rainfall to judge water checks, shade, dairy heat stress, pasture recovery, and irrigation/feed-crop pressure.","es":"South Africa Highveld: se prevén 17.6 mm/semana de evapotranspiración de referencia y 16.6 C de sensación máxima. Cruza esto con lluvia para revisar agua, sombra, estrés lechero, recuperación de pasto y presión de riego/cultivos de alimento.","pt":"South Africa Highveld: estão previstos 17.6 mm/semana de evapotranspiração de referência e 16.6 C de sensação máxima. Cruze com chuva para checar água, sombra, estresse leiteiro, recuperação de pasto e pressão de irrigação/culturas para ração."},"sourceUrl":"https://api.open-meteo.com/v1/forecast?latitude=-26.2&longitude=28&daily=temperature_2m_max%2Ctemperature_2m_min%2Capparent_temperature_max%2Cprecipitation_sum%2Cet0_fao_evapotranspiration&forecast_days=7&timezone=auto"},{"id":"world-bank-wdi-livestock_production_index-africa-asia","sourceName":"World Bank WDI","label":{"en":"Africa and Asia Livestock production index","es":"Índice de producción ganadera en África y Asia","pt":"Índice de produção pecuária em África e Ásia"},"metric":"livestock_production_index","value":121,"unit":"index","observationDate":"2022","confidence":74,"producerRead":{"en":"Livestock production index averages 121.0 index across Africa and Asia. Country readings: India 133, China 110. This is a structural supply baseline; use it before treating a weekly report as the whole market.","es":"Índice de producción ganadera promedia 121.0 index en África y Asia. Lecturas por país: India 133, China 110. Es una base estructural de oferta; úsala antes de tratar un reporte semanal como todo el mercado.","pt":"Índice de produção pecuária tem média de 121.0 index em África e Ásia. Leituras por país: India 133, China 110. É uma base estrutural de oferta; use antes de tratar um relatório semanal como todo o mercado."},"sourceUrl":"https://api.worldbank.org/v2/indicator/AG.PRD.LVSK.XD"},{"id":"world-bank-wdi-livestock_production_index-india","sourceName":"World Bank WDI","label":{"en":"India Livestock production index","es":"Índice de producción ganadera en India","pt":"Índice de produção pecuária em Índia"},"metric":"livestock_production_index_india","value":132.5,"unit":"index","observationDate":"2022","confidence":74,"producerRead":{"en":"India: Livestock production index is 132.5 index. This is a structural supply baseline; use it before treating a weekly report as the whole market.","es":"India: Índice de producción ganadera es 132.5 index. Es una base estructural de oferta; úsala antes de tratar un reporte semanal como todo el mercado.","pt":"Índia: Índice de produção pecuária é 132.5 index. É uma base estrutural de oferta; use antes de tratar um relatório semanal como todo o mercado."},"sourceUrl":"https://api.worldbank.org/v2/indicator/AG.PRD.LVSK.XD"}],"driverImpacts":[{"id":"usda-wasde-china-soymeal-stocks-monthly-balance-impact","sectors":["feed","beef","dairy","crops"],"severity":"high","confidence":90,"title":{"en":"China soybean meal ending stocks changes the monthly feed and supply read","es":"China existencias finales de harina de soja cambia la lectura mensual de alimento y oferta","pt":"China estoques finais de farelo de soja muda a leitura mensal de racao e oferta"},"signal":{"en":"1.5 million tonnes in the May 2026 WASDE for 2026/27; +13.3% versus 2025/26. This is the official monthly bridge from crop/feed balance to cattle, milk, and sale timing.","es":"1.5 millones de toneladas en el WASDE May 2026 para 2026/27; +13.3% versus 2025/26. Es el puente mensual oficial entre balance de alimento, ganado, leche y momento de venta.","pt":"1.5 milhoes de toneladas no WASDE May 2026 para 2026/27; +13.3% versus 2025/26. E a ponte mensal oficial entre balanco de racao, gado, leite e venda."},"affects":{"en":"Delivered feed cost, ration coverage, hay substitution, crop-to-cattle margin, feeder bids, and whether retained weight still pays.","es":"Costo de alimento entregado, cobertura de racion, sustitucion de heno, margen cultivo-ganado, invernada y si retener kilos paga.","pt":"Custo de racao entregue, cobertura da dieta, substituicao de feno, margem lavoura-gado, recria e se peso retido paga."},"producerDecision":{"en":"Put the WASDE revision beside local corn, meal, hay, freight, and weather before buying feed, buying feeders, or holding cattle for more gain.","es":"Poner la revision WASDE junto a maiz local, harina, heno, flete y clima antes de comprar alimento, invernada o retener kilos.","pt":"Colocar a revisao WASDE junto de milho local, farelo, feno, frete e clima antes de comprar racao, recria ou reter peso."},"sourceIds":["usda-wasde"]},{"id":"fas-psd-ch-beef-balance-sheet-impact","sectors":["beef","dairy","feed"],"severity":"high","confidence":90,"title":{"en":"China PSD beef supply and trade updates the long-cycle supply read","es":"China PSD oferta y comercio de carne bovina actualiza la lectura de oferta de ciclo largo","pt":"China PSD oferta e comércio de carne bovina atualiza a leitura de oferta de ciclo longo"},"signal":{"en":"7,600 thousand metric tons CWE in USDA FAS PSD for China. The balance sheet is -5.1% versus 2025, so read it against local prices instead of treating daily headlines as isolated events.","es":"7,600 thousand metric tons CWE en USDA FAS PSD para China. El balance es -5.1% versus 2025; leerlo contra precios locales en vez de tratar titulares diarios como eventos aislados.","pt":"7,600 thousand metric tons CWE no USDA FAS PSD para China. O balanco e -5.1% versus 2025; leia contra precos locais em vez de tratar manchetes diarias como eventos isolados."},"affects":{"en":"Beef supply, export pull, processor leverage, cull-cow value, basis confidence, and sale-window strength.","es":"Oferta de carne, exportacion, poder frigorifico, vaca de descarte, confianza de base y ventana de venta.","pt":"Oferta de carne, exportacao, poder de frigorifico, vaca de descarte, confianca de base e janela de venda."},"producerDecision":{"en":"Compare PSD beef supply and trade with local bids before deciding whether price weakness is temporary noise or real buyer leverage.","es":"Comparar oferta y comercio PSD con ofertas locales antes de decidir si debilidad de precio es ruido o poder comprador real.","pt":"Comparar oferta e comercio PSD com precos locais antes de decidir se fraqueza e ruido ou poder comprador real."},"sourceIds":["usda-fas"]},{"id":"fas-psd-ch-cattle-balance-sheet-impact","sectors":["beef","dairy","feed"],"severity":"high","confidence":90,"title":{"en":"China PSD cattle herd and slaughter updates the long-cycle supply read","es":"China PSD hato y faena bovina actualiza la lectura de oferta de ciclo largo","pt":"China PSD rebanho e abate bovino atualiza a leitura de oferta de ciclo longo"},"signal":{"en":"87,560 thousand head in USDA FAS PSD for China. The balance sheet is -6.9% versus 2025, so read it against local prices instead of treating daily headlines as isolated events.","es":"87,560 thousand head en USDA FAS PSD para China. El balance es -6.9% versus 2025; leerlo contra precios locales en vez de tratar titulares diarios como eventos aislados.","pt":"87,560 thousand head no USDA FAS PSD para China. O balanco e -6.9% versus 2025; leia contra precos locais em vez de tratar manchetes diarias como eventos isolados."},"affects":{"en":"Replacement supply, cow retention, slaughter availability, feeder flow, and the long-cycle floor under cattle prices.","es":"Reposicion, retencion de vacas, disponibilidad de faena, flujo de invernada y piso de ciclo largo del precio.","pt":"Reposicao, retencao de matrizes, disponibilidade de abate, fluxo de recria e piso de ciclo longo do preco."},"producerDecision":{"en":"Use the PSD herd balance before retaining replacements, buying feeders, or assuming local supply will stay loose or tight.","es":"Usar el balance PSD del hato antes de retener reposicion, comprar invernada o asumir oferta local floja o ajustada.","pt":"Usar o balanco PSD do rebanho antes de reter reposicao, comprar recria ou assumir oferta local frouxa ou apertada."},"sourceIds":["usda-fas"]},{"id":"fas-psd-in-soybean-meal-feed-balance-sheet-impact","sectors":["feed","crops","beef","dairy"],"severity":"high","confidence":90,"title":{"en":"India PSD soybean meal feed balance updates the long-cycle supply read","es":"India PSD balance de harina de soja actualiza la lectura de oferta de ciclo largo","pt":"Índia PSD balanço de farelo de soja atualiza a leitura de oferta de ciclo longo"},"signal":{"en":"6,700 thousand mt in USDA FAS PSD for India. The balance sheet is +4.7% versus 2025, so read it against local prices instead of treating daily headlines as isolated events.","es":"6,700 miles de t en USDA FAS PSD para India. El balance es +4.7% versus 2025; leerlo contra precios locales en vez de tratar titulares diarios como eventos aislados.","pt":"6,700 mil t no USDA FAS PSD para India. O balanco e +4.7% versus 2025; leia contra precos locais em vez de tratar manchetes diarias como eventos isolados."},"affects":{"en":"Feed availability, import exposure, ration coverage, feeder bids, retained-weight economics, and crop-to-cattle margin.","es":"Disponibilidad de alimento, exposicion importadora, cobertura de racion, invernada, kilos retenidos y margen cultivo-ganado.","pt":"Disponibilidade de racao, exposicao a importacao, cobertura de dieta, recria, peso retido e margem lavoura-gado."},"producerDecision":{"en":"Use the PSD feed balance with delivered corn, meal, hay, freight, and weather before locking ration coverage or holding cattle for more gain.","es":"Usar el balance PSD de alimento con maiz entregado, harina, heno, flete y clima antes de cubrir racion o retener kilos.","pt":"Usar o balanco PSD de racao com milho entregue, farelo, feno, frete e clima antes de cobrir dieta ou reter peso."},"sourceIds":["usda-fas"]},{"id":"fas-psd-in-sorghum-feed-balance-sheet-impact","sectors":["feed","crops","beef","dairy"],"severity":"high","confidence":90,"title":{"en":"India PSD sorghum feed balance updates the long-cycle supply read","es":"India PSD balance de sorgo para alimento actualiza la lectura de oferta de ciclo largo","pt":"Índia PSD balanço de sorgo para ração atualiza a leitura de oferta de ciclo longo"},"signal":{"en":"500 thousand mt in USDA FAS PSD for India. The balance sheet is -23.1% versus 2025, so read it against local prices instead of treating daily headlines as isolated events.","es":"500 miles de t en USDA FAS PSD para India. El balance es -23.1% versus 2025; leerlo contra precios locales en vez de tratar titulares diarios como eventos aislados.","pt":"500 mil t no USDA FAS PSD para India. O balanco e -23.1% versus 2025; leia contra precos locais em vez de tratar manchetes diarias como eventos isolados."},"affects":{"en":"Feed availability, import exposure, ration coverage, feeder bids, retained-weight economics, and crop-to-cattle margin.","es":"Disponibilidad de alimento, exposicion importadora, cobertura de racion, invernada, kilos retenidos y margen cultivo-ganado.","pt":"Disponibilidade de racao, exposicao a importacao, cobertura de dieta, recria, peso retido e margem lavoura-gado."},"producerDecision":{"en":"Use the PSD feed balance with delivered corn, meal, hay, freight, and weather before locking ration coverage or holding cattle for more gain.","es":"Usar el balance PSD de alimento con maiz entregado, harina, heno, flete y clima antes de cubrir racion o retener kilos.","pt":"Usar o balanco PSD de racao com milho entregue, farelo, feno, frete e clima antes de cobrir dieta ou reter peso."},"sourceIds":["usda-fas"]},{"id":"gdt-events-africa-asia-smp-dairy-margin-impact","sectors":["dairy","beef","feed"],"severity":"high","confidence":89,"title":{"en":"Africa/Asia GDT Skimmilk Powders changes dairy margin pressure","es":"Africa/Asia GDT Skimmilk Powders cambia la presion de margen lechero","pt":"Africa/Asia GDT Skimmilk Powders muda a pressao de margem do leite"},"signal":{"en":"3,457 $/mt in the latest Global Dairy Trade public results. The event-to-event index move is -3.0%.","es":"3,457 USD/t en los resultados publicos recientes de Global Dairy Trade. El cambio entre eventos es -3.0%.","pt":"3,457 USD/t nos resultados publicos recentes da Global Dairy Trade. A mudanca entre eventos e -3.0%."},"affects":{"en":"Milk-check expectations, ration tolerance, cull timing, replacement appetite, dairy-beef supply, processor support, and export-linked demand.","es":"Pago esperado de leche, tolerancia a racion, descarte, reposicion, oferta de carne lechera, soporte industrial y demanda exportadora.","pt":"Expectativa de pagamento do leite, tolerancia a racao, descarte, reposicao, oferta de carne leiteira, suporte industrial e demanda externa."},"producerDecision":{"en":"Stress-test the milk check against delivered feed before adding ration cost, delaying culls, or keeping marginal cows another cycle.","es":"Probar el pago de leche contra alimento entregado antes de sumar racion, demorar descarte o mantener vacas marginales otro ciclo.","pt":"Teste o pagamento do leite contra racao entregue antes de aumentar dieta, atrasar descarte ou manter vacas marginais outro ciclo."},"sourceIds":["gdt-events"]},{"id":"open-meteo-water-demand-south-asia-dairy-water-heat-impact","sectors":["beef","dairy","feed","crops"],"severity":"high","confidence":88,"title":{"en":"South Asia dairy clusters 7-day water demand forecast: heat and water demand watch","es":"Demanda de agua 7 días en South Asia dairy clusters: vigilar calor y demanda de agua","pt":"Demanda de água 7 dias em South Asia dairy clusters: observar calor e demanda de água"},"signal":{"en":"53.8 mm/week forecast for reference evapotranspiration. That is a forward signal for pasture drying, trough checks, shade, dairy comfort, and irrigated feed-crop pressure.","es":"53.8 mm/semana previstos de evapotranspiración de referencia. Es señal futura de secado de pasto, revisión de bebederos, sombra, confort lechero y presión de cultivos forrajeros bajo riego.","pt":"53.8 mm/semana previstos de evapotranspiração de referência. É sinal futuro de secagem do pasto, checagem de bebedouros, sombra, conforto leiteiro e pressão em culturas de ração irrigadas."},"affects":{"en":"Water demand, shade and handling windows, dairy milk yield, pasture regrowth, hay substitution, irrigation demand, and feed-crop stress.","es":"Demanda de agua, horarios de sombra y manejo, leche, rebrote de pasto, sustitución por heno, riego y estrés de cultivos de alimento.","pt":"Demanda de água, janelas de sombra e manejo, leite, rebrota de pasto, substituição por feno, irrigação e estresse de culturas para ração."},"producerDecision":{"en":"Move water checks, shade, transport timing, and dairy heat-abatement ahead of the forecast peak before assuming cattle will keep eating and gaining normally.","es":"Adelantar agua, sombra, horario de transporte y mitigación de calor lechero antes del pico previsto, sin asumir consumo y ganancia normales.","pt":"Antecipar checagem de água, sombra, horário de transporte e conforto térmico leiteiro antes do pico previsto, sem assumir consumo e ganho normais."},"sourceIds":["open-meteo-forecast"]},{"id":"open-meteo-water-demand-gulf-import-corridor-water-heat-impact","sectors":["beef","dairy","feed","crops"],"severity":"high","confidence":88,"title":{"en":"Gulf import corridors 7-day water demand forecast: heat and water demand watch","es":"Demanda de agua 7 días en Gulf import corridors: vigilar calor y demanda de agua","pt":"Demanda de água 7 dias em Gulf import corridors: observar calor e demanda de água"},"signal":{"en":"54.7 mm/week forecast for reference evapotranspiration. That is a forward signal for pasture drying, trough checks, shade, dairy comfort, and irrigated feed-crop pressure.","es":"54.7 mm/semana previstos de evapotranspiración de referencia. Es señal futura de secado de pasto, revisión de bebederos, sombra, confort lechero y presión de cultivos forrajeros bajo riego.","pt":"54.7 mm/semana previstos de evapotranspiração de referência. É sinal futuro de secagem do pasto, checagem de bebedouros, sombra, conforto leiteiro e pressão em culturas de ração irrigadas."},"affects":{"en":"Water demand, shade and handling windows, dairy milk yield, pasture regrowth, hay substitution, irrigation demand, and feed-crop stress.","es":"Demanda de agua, horarios de sombra y manejo, leche, rebrote de pasto, sustitución por heno, riego y estrés de cultivos de alimento.","pt":"Demanda de água, janelas de sombra e manejo, leite, rebrota de pasto, substituição por feno, irrigação e estresse de culturas para ração."},"producerDecision":{"en":"Move water checks, shade, transport timing, and dairy heat-abatement ahead of the forecast peak before assuming cattle will keep eating and gaining normally.","es":"Adelantar agua, sombra, horario de transporte y mitigación de calor lechero antes del pico previsto, sin asumir consumo y ganancia normales.","pt":"Antecipar checagem de água, sombra, horário de transporte e conforto térmico leiteiro antes do pico previsto, sem assumir consumo e ganho normais."},"sourceIds":["open-meteo-forecast"]}],"temporalSignals":[],"marketEvents":[{"id":"reliefweb-agriculture-rss-somalia-radio-ergo-weekly-feedback-report-issued-5-june-2026-2026-06-05","sourceName":"ReliefWeb agriculture and disaster reports","category":{"en":"Conflict and logistics","es":"Conflicto y logística","pt":"Conflito e logística"},"severity":"high","publishedAt":"2026-06-05T09:03:29.000Z","title":{"en":"Somalia: Radio Ergo Weekly Feedback Report, Issued: 5 June 2026","es":"Somalia: Radio Ergo Weekly Feedback Report, Issued: 5 June 2026","pt":"Somalia: Radio Ergo Weekly Feedback Report, Issued: 5 June 2026"},"summary":{"en":"Public item selected because war, sanctions, ports, canals, or shipping routes can change delivered feed, fertilizer, fuel, freight, and buyer access: Somalia: Radio Ergo Weekly Feedback Report, Issued: 5 June 2026","es":"Ítem público seleccionado porque guerra, sanciones, puertos, canales o rutas marítimas pueden cambiar alimento entregado, fertilizante, combustible, flete y compradores: Somalia: Radio Ergo Weekly Feedback Report, Issued: 5 June 2026","pt":"Item público selecionado porque guerra, sanções, portos, canais ou rotas marítimas podem mudar ração entregue, fertilizante, combustível, frete e compradores: Somalia: Radio Ergo Weekly Feedback Report, Issued: 5 June 2026"},"producerDecision":{"en":"Check delivered feed, fertilizer, fuel, freight, and route exposure before holding cattle longer or locking crop-input purchases.","es":"Revisar alimento entregado, fertilizante, combustible, flete y rutas antes de retener ganado o fijar insumos.","pt":"Revisar ração entregue, fertilizante, combustível, frete e rotas antes de reter gado ou travar insumos."},"sourceUrl":"https://reliefweb.int/report/somalia/radio-ergo-weekly-feedback-report-issued-5-june-2026","confidence":82},{"id":"reliefweb-agriculture-rss-wfp-warning-becomes-a-reality-for-millions-as-middle-east-crisis-pushes-poorest-fami-2026-06-05","sourceName":"ReliefWeb agriculture and disaster reports","category":{"en":"Conflict and logistics","es":"Conflicto y logística","pt":"Conflito e logística"},"severity":"high","publishedAt":"2026-06-05T09:03:06.000Z","title":{"en":"WFP warning becomes a reality for millions as Middle East crisis pushes poorest families further into hunger | World Food Programme","es":"WFP warning becomes a reality for millions as Middle East crisis pushes poorest families further into hunger | World Food Programme","pt":"WFP warning becomes a reality for millions as Middle East crisis pushes poorest families further into hunger | World Food Programme"},"summary":{"en":"Public item selected because war, sanctions, ports, canals, or shipping routes can change delivered feed, fertilizer, fuel, freight, and buyer access: WFP warning becomes a reality for millions as Middle East crisis pushes poorest families further into hunger | World Food Programme","es":"Ítem público seleccionado porque guerra, sanciones, puertos, canales o rutas marítimas pueden cambiar alimento entregado, fertilizante, combustible, flete y compradores: WFP warning becomes a reality for millions as Middle East crisis pushes poorest families further into hunger | World Food Programme","pt":"Item público selecionado porque guerra, sanções, portos, canais ou rotas marítimas podem mudar ração entregue, fertilizante, combustível, frete e compradores: WFP warning becomes a reality for millions as Middle East crisis pushes poorest families further into hunger | World Food Programme"},"producerDecision":{"en":"Check delivered feed, fertilizer, fuel, freight, and route exposure before holding cattle longer or locking crop-input purchases.","es":"Revisar alimento entregado, fertilizante, combustible, flete y rutas antes de retener ganado o fijar insumos.","pt":"Revisar ração entregue, fertilizante, combustível, frete e rotas antes de reter gado ou travar insumos."},"sourceUrl":"https://reliefweb.int/report/world/wfp-warning-becomes-reality-millions-middle-east-crisis-pushes-poorest-families-further-hunger-world-food-programme","confidence":82},{"id":"reliefweb-agriculture-rss-kenya-key-message-update-long-rains-ease-conditions-but-crisis-ipc-phase-3-to-persis-2026-06-05","sourceName":"ReliefWeb agriculture and disaster reports","category":{"en":"Weather and forage","es":"Clima y forraje","pt":"Clima e pasto"},"severity":"high","publishedAt":"2026-06-05T02:36:56.000Z","title":{"en":"Kenya - Key Message Update: Long rains ease conditions but Crisis (IPC Phase 3) to persist in pastoral areas, May - September 2026","es":"Kenya - Key Message Update: Long rains ease conditions but Crisis (IPC Phase 3) to persist in pastoral areas, May - September 2026","pt":"Kenya - Key Message Update: Long rains ease conditions but Crisis (IPC Phase 3) to persist in pastoral areas, May - September 2026"},"summary":{"en":"Public item selected because weather or forage conditions can change pasture days, water checks, and sale pressure: Kenya - Key Message Update: Long rains ease conditions but Crisis (IPC Phase 3) to persist in pastoral areas, May - September 2026","es":"Ítem público seleccionado porque clima o forraje pueden cambiar días de pasto, chequeos de agua y presión de venta: Kenya - Key Message Update: Long rains ease conditions but Crisis (IPC Phase 3) to persist in pastoral areas, May - September 2026","pt":"Item público selecionado porque clima ou pasto podem mudar dias de lotação, checagens de água e pressão de venda: Kenya - Key Message Update: Long rains ease conditions but Crisis (IPC Phase 3) to persist in pastoral areas, May - September 2026"},"producerDecision":{"en":"Convert the signal into forage days, water checks, and a sale-or-hold threshold.","es":"Convertir la señal en días de forraje, chequeos de agua y umbral de vender o retener.","pt":"Converter o sinal em dias de pasto, checagens de água e limite de vender ou reter."},"sourceUrl":"https://reliefweb.int/report/kenya/kenya-key-message-update-long-rains-ease-conditions-crisis-ipc-phase-3-persist-pastoral-areas-may-september-2026","confidence":82},{"id":"reliefweb-agriculture-rss-madagascar-key-message-update-severe-rainfall-deficits-reduce-agricultural-yields-in-2026-06-05","sourceName":"ReliefWeb agriculture and disaster reports","category":{"en":"Weather and forage","es":"Clima y forraje","pt":"Clima e pasto"},"severity":"high","publishedAt":"2026-06-05T02:33:17.000Z","title":{"en":"Madagascar - Key Message Update: Severe rainfall deficits reduce agricultural yields in Southwestern Madagascar, May - September 2026","es":"Madagascar - Key Message Update: Severe rainfall deficits reduce agricultural yields in Southwestern Madagascar, May - September 2026","pt":"Madagascar - Key Message Update: Severe rainfall deficits reduce agricultural yields in Southwestern Madagascar, May - September 2026"},"summary":{"en":"Public item selected because weather or forage conditions can change pasture days, water checks, and sale pressure: Madagascar - Key Message Update: Severe rainfall deficits reduce agricultural yields in Southwestern Madagascar, May - September 2026","es":"Ítem público seleccionado porque clima o forraje pueden cambiar días de pasto, chequeos de agua y presión de venta: Madagascar - Key Message Update: Severe rainfall deficits reduce agricultural yields in Southwestern Madagascar, May - September 2026","pt":"Item público selecionado porque clima ou pasto podem mudar dias de lotação, checagens de água e pressão de venda: Madagascar - Key Message Update: Severe rainfall deficits reduce agricultural yields in Southwestern Madagascar, May - September 2026"},"producerDecision":{"en":"Convert the signal into forage days, water checks, and a sale-or-hold threshold.","es":"Convertir la señal en días de forraje, chequeos de agua y umbral de vender o retener.","pt":"Converter o sinal em dias de pasto, checagens de água e limite de vender ou reter."},"sourceUrl":"https://reliefweb.int/report/madagascar/madagascar-key-message-update-severe-rainfall-deficits-reduce-agricultural-yields-southwestern-madagascar-may-september-2026","confidence":82},{"id":"reliefweb-agriculture-rss-lesotho-key-message-update-may-september-2026-the-ongoing-favorable-harvest-is-impro-2026-06-05","sourceName":"ReliefWeb agriculture and disaster reports","category":{"en":"Weather and forage","es":"Clima y forraje","pt":"Clima e pasto"},"severity":"high","publishedAt":"2026-06-05T02:30:58.000Z","title":{"en":"Lesotho Key Message Update May - September 2026: The ongoing favorable harvest is improving food consumption","es":"Lesotho Key Message Update May - September 2026: The ongoing favorable harvest is improving food consumption","pt":"Lesotho Key Message Update May - September 2026: The ongoing favorable harvest is improving food consumption"},"summary":{"en":"Public item selected because weather or forage conditions can change pasture days, water checks, and sale pressure: Lesotho Key Message Update May - September 2026: The ongoing favorable harvest is improving food consumption","es":"Ítem público seleccionado porque clima o forraje pueden cambiar días de pasto, chequeos de agua y presión de venta: Lesotho Key Message Update May - September 2026: The ongoing favorable harvest is improving food consumption","pt":"Item público selecionado porque clima ou pasto podem mudar dias de lotação, checagens de água e pressão de venda: Lesotho Key Message Update May - September 2026: The ongoing favorable harvest is improving food consumption"},"producerDecision":{"en":"Convert the signal into forage days, water checks, and a sale-or-hold threshold.","es":"Convertir la señal en días de forraje, chequeos de agua y umbral de vender o retener.","pt":"Converter o sinal em dias de pasto, checagens de água e limite de vender ou reter."},"sourceUrl":"https://reliefweb.int/report/lesotho/lesotho-key-message-update-may-september-2026-ongoing-favorable-harvest-improving-food-consumption","confidence":82},{"id":"reliefweb-agriculture-rss-giews-country-brief-the-republic-of-yemen-04-june-2026-2026-06-04","sourceName":"ReliefWeb agriculture and disaster reports","category":{"en":"Conflict and logistics","es":"Conflicto y logística","pt":"Conflito e logística"},"severity":"high","publishedAt":"2026-06-04T23:41:04.000Z","title":{"en":"GIEWS Country Brief: The Republic of Yemen 04-June-2026","es":"GIEWS Country Brief: The Republic of Yemen 04-June-2026","pt":"GIEWS Country Brief: The Republic of Yemen 04-June-2026"},"summary":{"en":"Public item selected because war, sanctions, ports, canals, or shipping routes can change delivered feed, fertilizer, fuel, freight, and buyer access: GIEWS Country Brief: The Republic of Yemen 04-June-2026","es":"Ítem público seleccionado porque guerra, sanciones, puertos, canales o rutas marítimas pueden cambiar alimento entregado, fertilizante, combustible, flete y compradores: GIEWS Country Brief: The Republic of Yemen 04-June-2026","pt":"Item público selecionado porque guerra, sanções, portos, canais ou rotas marítimas podem mudar ração entregue, fertilizante, combustível, frete e compradores: GIEWS Country Brief: The Republic of Yemen 04-June-2026"},"producerDecision":{"en":"Check delivered feed, fertilizer, fuel, freight, and route exposure before holding cattle longer or locking crop-input purchases.","es":"Revisar alimento entregado, fertilizante, combustible, flete y rutas antes de retener ganado o fijar insumos.","pt":"Revisar ração entregue, fertilizante, combustível, frete e rotas antes de reter gado ou travar insumos."},"sourceUrl":"https://reliefweb.int/report/yemen/giews-country-brief-republic-yemen-04-june-2026","confidence":82},{"id":"fao-newsroom-rss-fao-report-highlights-long-term-economic-case-for-tackling-antimicrobial-resistance--2026-06-03","sourceName":"FAO Newsroom","category":{"en":"Animal health","es":"Sanidad animal","pt":"Sanidade animal"},"severity":"high","publishedAt":"2026-06-03T12:00:00.000Z","title":{"en":"FAO report highlights long-term economic case for tackling antimicrobial resistance in livestock","es":"FAO report highlights long-term economic case for tackling antimicrobial resistance in livestock","pt":"FAO report highlights long-term economic case for tackling antimicrobial resistance in livestock"},"summary":{"en":"Public item selected because it can affect livestock movement, buyer access, and biosecurity: FAO report highlights long-term economic case for tackling antimicrobial resistance in livestock","es":"Ítem público seleccionado porque puede afectar movimiento, acceso de compradores y bioseguridad: FAO report highlights long-term economic case for tackling antimicrobial resistance in livestock","pt":"Item público selecionado porque pode afetar movimentação, acesso de compradores e biossegurança: FAO report highlights long-term economic case for tackling antimicrobial resistance in livestock"},"producerDecision":{"en":"Check movement, replacement purchases, and export-linked commitments before assuming normal buyer access.","es":"Revisar movimiento, reposición y compromisos exportadores antes de asumir acceso normal.","pt":"Revisar movimentação, reposição e compromissos exportadores antes de assumir acesso normal."},"sourceUrl":"https://www.fao.org/newsroom/detail/fao-report-highlights-long-term-economic-case-for-tackling-antimicrobial-resistance-in-livestock/en","confidence":82},{"id":"fao-newsroom-rss-strait-of-hormuz-time-running-out-to-avert-global-food-security-crisis-fao-warns-2026-05-26","sourceName":"FAO Newsroom","category":{"en":"Conflict and logistics","es":"Conflicto y logística","pt":"Conflito e logística"},"severity":"high","publishedAt":"2026-05-26T12:00:00.000Z","title":{"en":"Strait of Hormuz: Time running out to avert global food security crisis, FAO warns","es":"Strait of Hormuz: Time running out to avert global food security crisis, FAO warns","pt":"Strait of Hormuz: Time running out to avert global food security crisis, FAO warns"},"summary":{"en":"Public item selected because war, sanctions, ports, canals, or shipping routes can change delivered feed, fertilizer, fuel, freight, and buyer access: Strait of Hormuz: Time running out to avert global food security crisis, FAO warns","es":"Ítem público seleccionado porque guerra, sanciones, puertos, canales o rutas marítimas pueden cambiar alimento entregado, fertilizante, combustible, flete y compradores: Strait of Hormuz: Time running out to avert global food security crisis, FAO warns","pt":"Item público selecionado porque guerra, sanções, portos, canais ou rotas marítimas podem mudar ração entregue, fertilizante, combustível, frete e compradores: Strait of Hormuz: Time running out to avert global food security crisis, FAO warns"},"producerDecision":{"en":"Check delivered feed, fertilizer, fuel, freight, and route exposure before holding cattle longer or locking crop-input purchases.","es":"Revisar alimento entregado, fertilizante, combustible, flete y rutas antes de retener ganado o fijar insumos.","pt":"Revisar ração entregue, fertilizante, combustível, frete e rotas antes de reter gado ou travar insumos."},"sourceUrl":"https://www.fao.org/newsroom/detail/strait-of-hormuz--time-running-out-to-avert-global-food-security-crisis--fao-warns/en","confidence":82}]}],"graphLayers":[{"id":"source-families","label":{"en":"Source families","es":"Familias de fuentes","pt":"Famílias de fontes"},"count":146,"description":{"en":"Official agencies, exchanges, public media, public market operators, and research institutions watched for cattle-market evidence.","es":"Agencias oficiales, bolsas, medios públicos, operadores públicos e instituciones de investigación vigiladas como evidencia de mercado.","pt":"Agências oficiais, bolsas, mídia pública, operadores públicos e instituições de pesquisa monitoradas como evidência de mercado."}},{"id":"mapped-series","label":{"en":"Mapped public series","es":"Series públicas mapeadas","pt":"Séries públicas mapeadas"},"count":302037,"description":{"en":"Price, weather, trade, crop, dairy, disease, macro, water, and regional series mapped into the intelligence layer.","es":"Series de precios, clima, comercio, cultivos, leche, sanidad, macro, agua y regiones mapeadas.","pt":"Séries de preços, clima, comércio, culturas, leite, sanidade, macro, água e regiões mapeadas."}},{"id":"source-signal-hooks","label":{"en":"Signal links","es":"Conexiones de señal","pt":"Conexões de sinal"},"count":3845,"description":{"en":"Source-to-signal, region, and sector links that connect public data to cattle, dairy, feed, crop, disease, and finance decisions.","es":"Conexiones de fuente a señal, región y sector que conectan datos públicos con decisiones de ganado, leche, alimento, cultivos, sanidad y finanzas.","pt":"Conexões de fonte para sinal, região e setor que ligam dados públicos a decisões de gado, leite, ração, culturas, sanidade e finanças."}},{"id":"causal-edges","label":{"en":"Evidence links","es":"Vínculos de evidencia","pt":"Vínculos de evidência"},"count":151,"description":{"en":"Human-readable links from source data to market drivers, lag windows, and producer decisions.","es":"Conexiones legibles de fuente a factor, rezago y decisión del productor.","pt":"Conexões legíveis de fonte a fator, defasagem e decisão do produtor."}},{"id":"geo-nodes","label":{"en":"Geo market nodes","es":"Nodos geográficos","pt":"Nós geográficos"},"count":20,"description":{"en":"Regional city, state, belt, and corridor nodes that make the dashboard geography-aware.","es":"Ciudades, estados, cinturones y corredores que hacen el tablero geográfico.","pt":"Cidades, estados, cinturões e corredores que tornam o painel geográfico."}}],"decisionLenses":[{"id":"sell-hold-or-hedge","name":{"en":"Sell, hold, or hedge","es":"Vender, retener o cubrir","pt":"Vender, reter ou proteger"},"question":{"en":"Does the next weight gain still pay after feed, freight, basis, and buyer risk?","es":"¿Todavía paga el próximo kilo después de alimento, flete, base y riesgo comprador?","pt":"O próximo quilo ainda paga depois de ração, frete, base e risco do comprador?"},"headline":{"en":"Starts with cash prices, futures positioning, feed spreads, and local basis before a producer changes sale timing.","es":"Empieza con precios físicos, futuros, spreads de alimento y base local antes de cambiar la venta.","pt":"Começa com preços físicos, futuros, spreads de ração e base local antes de mudar a venda."},"producerAction":{"en":"Compare today’s bid against the cost and risk of carrying cattle through the next gain window.","es":"Comparar la oferta de hoy contra el costo y riesgo de mantener ganado en la próxima ventana de ganancia.","pt":"Comparar a oferta de hoje contra o custo e risco de manter o gado na próxima janela de ganho."},"regions":["north-america","latin-america","oceania","europe","africa-asia"],"sectors":["beef","feed","crops"],"sourceIds":["usda-ams","cepea-boi","mla-api","cme-livestock","cftc-cot","usda-ers-feed-grains","world-bank-pink-sheet"],"historicalDriverIds":["positioning-to-hedge-margin","crop-balance-to-feed-margin","herd-concentration-to-basis"],"scenarioIds":["feed-cost-spike","credit-interest-squeeze","export-disruption"],"leadingSignals":[{"en":"Cash bid vs feed-cost change","es":"Oferta física vs cambio en alimento","pt":"Oferta física vs mudança no custo da ração"},{"en":"Futures positioning and basis stress","es":"Posicionamiento de futuros y estrés de base","pt":"Posicionamento futuro e estresse de base"},{"en":"Local auction volume and buyer competition","es":"Volumen de remate y competencia compradora","pt":"Volume de leilão e competição compradora"}],"forwardRisks":[{"en":"Feed margin disappears before the sale window","es":"El margen de alimento desaparece antes de vender","pt":"A margem de ração desaparece antes da venda"},{"en":"Basis weakens if buyer access changes","es":"La base cae si cambia el acceso comprador","pt":"A base enfraquece se o acesso comprador mudar"}],"refreshCadence":{"en":"Daily to weekly","es":"Diario a semanal","pt":"Diário a semanal"}},{"id":"forage-water-pressure","name":{"en":"Forage and water pressure","es":"Forraje y agua","pt":"Pasto e água"},"question":{"en":"Will pasture, hay, heat, or water force animals to move earlier than planned?","es":"¿Pasto, heno, calor o agua obligarán a mover animales antes de lo previsto?","pt":"Pasto, feno, calor ou água vão forçar movimentação antes do planejado?"},"headline":{"en":"Weather is useful only when it is translated into forage days, water risk, heat load, and sale pressure.","es":"El clima sirve cuando se traduce en días de forraje, riesgo de agua, calor y presión de venta.","pt":"Clima serve quando vira dias de pasto, risco de água, carga de calor e pressão de venda."},"producerAction":{"en":"Move from calendar selling to forage-days, water, and hay-coverage selling.","es":"Pasar de venta por calendario a venta por días de forraje, agua y cobertura de heno.","pt":"Passar de venda por calendário para venda por dias de pasto, água e cobertura de feno."},"regions":["north-america","latin-america","oceania","europe","africa-asia"],"sectors":["beef","dairy","feed","crops"],"sourceIds":["us-drought-monitor","noaa-climate","nasa-power","open-meteo-forecast","usgs-water","bom-climate","fao-aquastat"],"historicalDriverIds":["pasture-stress-to-sale-runs","heat-load-to-milk-gain","credit-cost-to-retention"],"scenarioIds":["drought-shock","heat-stress-milk-loss","water-restriction-shock"],"leadingSignals":[{"en":"Soil moisture, rainfall, and pasture anomaly","es":"Humedad de suelo, lluvia y anomalía de pasto","pt":"Umidade do solo, chuva e anomalia de pasto"},{"en":"Hay and supplement quotes before auction volume rises","es":"Heno y suplemento antes de que suba el remate","pt":"Feno e suplemento antes do leilão subir"},{"en":"Heat load around milk, gain, pregnancy, and transport","es":"Carga de calor sobre leche, ganancia, preñez y transporte","pt":"Carga de calor sobre leite, ganho, prenhez e transporte"}],"forwardRisks":[{"en":"Forced sales arrive after neighbors face the same forage problem","es":"Ventas forzadas llegan cuando vecinos tienen el mismo problema","pt":"Vendas forçadas chegam quando vizinhos têm o mesmo problema"},{"en":"Replacement value falls in the dry corridor","es":"La reposición cae en el corredor seco","pt":"A reposição cai no corredor seco"}],"refreshCadence":{"en":"Daily weather, weekly drought","es":"Clima diario, sequía semanal","pt":"Clima diário, seca semanal"}},{"id":"feed-crop-margin","name":{"en":"Feed and crop margin","es":"Alimento y cultivos","pt":"Ração e culturas"},"question":{"en":"Are corn, soy meal, hay, fertilizer, diesel, or crop balance changing the value of weight gain?","es":"¿Maíz, harina de soja, heno, fertilizante, diésel o balance agrícola cambian el valor del peso?","pt":"Milho, farelo, feno, fertilizante, diesel ou balanço agrícola mudam o valor do ganho?"},"headline":{"en":"Crop balance and input costs often move cattle margins before cattle headlines do.","es":"Balance agrícola e insumos suelen mover el margen ganadero antes que los titulares de ganado.","pt":"Balanço agrícola e insumos muitas vezes movem a margem antes das manchetes de gado."},"producerAction":{"en":"Reprice feed coverage and ration strategy before deciding to add more weight.","es":"Recalcular cobertura de alimento y dieta antes de decidir agregar más peso.","pt":"Reprecificar cobertura de ração e dieta antes de decidir adicionar peso."},"regions":["north-america","latin-america","oceania","europe","africa-asia"],"sectors":["feed","crops","beef","dairy"],"sourceIds":["usda-wasde","usda-ers-feed-grains","conab","world-bank-pink-sheet","fao-food-price","eia-fuel","bls-ag-inputs","gdelt-global-news","reliefweb-agriculture","fao-giews","baltic-exchange"],"historicalDriverIds":["crop-balance-to-feed-margin","logistics-to-local-basis","geopolitical-shock-to-feed-freight","policy-change-to-farm-incentive"],"scenarioIds":["feed-cost-spike","crop-yield-shock","fertilizer-energy-squeeze","geopolitical-shipping-shock"],"leadingSignals":[{"en":"Corn, hay, soybean meal, and freight spreads","es":"Spreads de maíz, heno, harina de soja y flete","pt":"Spreads de milho, feno, farelo e frete"},{"en":"Crop stocks-to-use and export pace","es":"Stock/uso agrícola y ritmo exportador","pt":"Estoque/uso agrícola e ritmo exportador"},{"en":"Fertilizer, diesel, and interest cost pressure","es":"Fertilizante, diésel e intereses","pt":"Fertilizante, diesel e juros"}],"forwardRisks":[{"en":"Ration cost rises faster than cattle value","es":"La dieta sube más rápido que el ganado","pt":"A dieta sobe mais rápido que o gado"},{"en":"Crop shock changes feed availability and local freight","es":"Choque agrícola cambia alimento y flete local","pt":"Choque agrícola muda oferta de ração e frete local"}],"refreshCadence":{"en":"Daily to monthly","es":"Diario a mensual","pt":"Diário a mensal"}},{"id":"disease-movement","name":{"en":"Disease and movement","es":"Sanidad y movimiento","pt":"Sanidade e movimento"},"question":{"en":"Could disease, biosecurity, border rules, or movement holds change buyer access?","es":"¿Sanidad, bioseguridad, frontera o pausas de movimiento cambian el acceso comprador?","pt":"Sanidade, biossegurança, fronteira ou restrições mudam o acesso comprador?"},"headline":{"en":"Disease alerts become market signals when they change movement, export access, buyer trust, or replacement demand.","es":"Alertas sanitarios son señales de mercado cuando cambian movimiento, exportación, confianza o reposición.","pt":"Alertas sanitários viram sinais de mercado quando mudam movimento, exportação, confiança ou reposição."},"producerAction":{"en":"Check health status before buying, moving, contracting, or assuming normal buyer access.","es":"Revisar sanidad antes de comprar, mover, contratar o asumir acceso normal.","pt":"Revisar sanidade antes de comprar, mover, contratar ou assumir acesso normal."},"regions":["north-america","latin-america","oceania","europe","africa-asia"],"sectors":["animal-health","beef","dairy"],"sourceIds":["woah-wahis","usda-aphis","argentina-senasa","paraguay-senacsa","gdelt-global-news","cidrap-rss","fao-newsroom"],"historicalDriverIds":["health-alert-to-market-access","export-pull-to-local-basis","logistics-to-local-basis"],"scenarioIds":["disease-alert","export-disruption","policy-subsidy-rule-change"],"leadingSignals":[{"en":"Official notices before trade files move","es":"Avisos oficiales antes de los archivos comerciales","pt":"Avisos oficiais antes dos arquivos comerciais"},{"en":"Border, animal-health, and processor access language","es":"Lenguaje de frontera, sanidad y frigoríficos","pt":"Linguagem de fronteira, sanidade e frigoríficos"},{"en":"Local reports around mortality, movement, and vaccination","es":"Reportes locales de mortalidad, movimiento y vacunación","pt":"Relatos locais de mortalidade, movimento e vacinação"}],"forwardRisks":[{"en":"Movement friction turns into local discounts","es":"Fricción de movimiento se vuelve descuento local","pt":"Atrito de movimento vira desconto local"},{"en":"Buyer access changes before price sheets catch up","es":"Acceso comprador cambia antes de las pizarras","pt":"Acesso comprador muda antes das cotações"}],"refreshCadence":{"en":"Event-driven","es":"Por evento","pt":"Por evento"}},{"id":"trade-currency-border","name":{"en":"Trade, currency, and border","es":"Comercio, cambio y frontera","pt":"Comércio, câmbio e fronteira"},"question":{"en":"Are exports, currency, ports, or borders changing local basis and buyer competition?","es":"¿Exportación, cambio, puertos o frontera cambian la base local y compradores?","pt":"Exportação, câmbio, portos ou fronteira mudam a base local e compradores?"},"headline":{"en":"Trade files confirm demand late; currency, policy, port, and border signals can move basis first.","es":"El comercio confirma demanda tarde; cambio, política, puertos y frontera pueden mover la base primero.","pt":"Comércio confirma demanda tarde; câmbio, política, portos e fronteira podem mover a base primeiro."},"producerAction":{"en":"Do not price local cattle without checking export access, FX, port friction, and destination concentration.","es":"No poner precio sin revisar exportación, cambio, puertos y concentración de destinos.","pt":"Não precificar sem revisar exportação, câmbio, portos e concentração de destinos."},"regions":["north-america","latin-america","oceania","europe","africa-asia"],"sectors":["beef","dairy","feed","crops"],"sourceIds":["usda-esr","usda-fas","un-comtrade","comex-stat","brazil-bcb-sgs","imf-ifs","eurostat-comext","gdelt-global-news","suez-canal-authority","panama-canal-authority","baltic-exchange"],"historicalDriverIds":["export-pull-to-local-basis","logistics-to-local-basis","geopolitical-shock-to-feed-freight","policy-change-to-farm-incentive"],"scenarioIds":["export-disruption","port-freight-shock","geopolitical-shipping-shock","policy-subsidy-rule-change"],"leadingSignals":[{"en":"Weekly sales before monthly customs","es":"Ventas semanales antes de aduana mensual","pt":"Vendas semanais antes da alfândega mensal"},{"en":"Currency and destination concentration","es":"Cambio y concentración de destinos","pt":"Câmbio e concentração de destinos"},{"en":"Port, border, and policy headlines","es":"Titulares de puertos, frontera y política","pt":"Manchetes de portos, fronteira e política"}],"forwardRisks":[{"en":"Local basis moves before the official trade total","es":"La base local se mueve antes del total oficial","pt":"A base local se move antes do total oficial"},{"en":"One destination or rule change changes buyer leverage","es":"Un destino o regla cambia el poder comprador","pt":"Um destino ou regra muda o poder comprador"}],"refreshCadence":{"en":"Daily to monthly","es":"Diario a mensual","pt":"Diário a mensal"}},{"id":"dairy-cull-margin","name":{"en":"Dairy margin and cull flow","es":"Margen lechero y descarte","pt":"Margem leiteira e descarte"},"question":{"en":"Is milk margin changing ration spend, replacement appetite, or dairy-beef supply?","es":"¿El margen lechero cambia dieta, reposición u oferta de carne lechera?","pt":"A margem do leite muda dieta, reposição ou oferta de carne leiteira?"},"headline":{"en":"Milk, feed, energy, and cull-cow values feed directly into dairy and beef supply.","es":"Leche, alimento, energía y vacas de descarte entran directo a oferta lechera y carne.","pt":"Leite, ração, energia e vacas de descarte entram direto na oferta de leite e carne."},"producerAction":{"en":"Reprice ration, culling, replacement, and dairy-beef timing together.","es":"Recalcular dieta, descarte, reposición y carne lechera juntos.","pt":"Recalcular dieta, descarte, reposição e carne leiteira juntos."},"regions":["north-america","latin-america","oceania","europe","africa-asia"],"sectors":["dairy","beef","feed"],"sourceIds":["eu-milk","usda-ers-dairy","usda-ams","eurostat-agri","gdt-events","stats-nz","mexico-siap","world-bank-pink-sheet"],"historicalDriverIds":["dairy-margin-to-beef-supply","heat-load-to-milk-gain","crop-balance-to-feed-margin"],"scenarioIds":["milk-margin-squeeze","heat-stress-milk-loss","feed-cost-spike"],"leadingSignals":[{"en":"Milk price vs feed and energy","es":"Precio de leche vs alimento y energía","pt":"Preço do leite vs ração e energia"},{"en":"Cull cow value and replacement appetite","es":"Valor de descarte y apetito de reposición","pt":"Valor de descarte e apetite de reposição"},{"en":"Heat load and forage quality","es":"Carga de calor y calidad de forraje","pt":"Carga de calor e qualidade de forragem"}],"forwardRisks":[{"en":"Cull flow increases beef supply","es":"El descarte aumenta oferta de carne","pt":"O descarte aumenta oferta de carne"},{"en":"Ration spend outruns milk value","es":"La dieta supera el valor de leche","pt":"A ração supera o valor do leite"}],"refreshCadence":{"en":"Weekly to monthly","es":"Semanal a mensual","pt":"Semanal a mensal"}},{"id":"herd-rebuild-replacement","name":{"en":"Herd rebuild and replacement","es":"Reposición y reconstrucción","pt":"Reposição e reconstrução"},"question":{"en":"Is the herd rebuilding, liquidating, or shifting weight classes in this region?","es":"¿El rodeo está reconstruyendo, liquidando o cambiando clases de peso?","pt":"O rebanho está reconstruindo, liquidando ou mudando classes de peso?"},"headline":{"en":"Inventory and slaughter structure move slowly, but they define replacement value and basis risk.","es":"Inventario y faena se mueven lento, pero definen reposición y base.","pt":"Inventário e abate se movem devagar, mas definem reposição e base."},"producerAction":{"en":"Treat replacement buying as a margin decision, not only a head-count decision.","es":"Tratar reposición como decisión de margen, no solo de cabezas.","pt":"Tratar reposição como decisão de margem, não só de cabeças."},"regions":["north-america","latin-america","oceania","europe","africa-asia"],"sectors":["beef","dairy"],"sourceIds":["usda-nass","faostat","ibge-sidra","mexico-siap","eurostat-agri","abares","statcan-agriculture"],"historicalDriverIds":["herd-concentration-to-basis","pasture-stress-to-sale-runs","dairy-margin-to-beef-supply"],"scenarioIds":["drought-shock","milk-margin-squeeze","credit-interest-squeeze"],"leadingSignals":[{"en":"Cow herd, slaughter, carcass weight, and replacement supply","es":"Rodeo, faena, peso de canal y reposición","pt":"Rebanho, abate, peso de carcaça e reposição"},{"en":"Drought liquidation vs rebuilding signal","es":"Liquidación por sequía vs reconstrucción","pt":"Liquidação por seca vs reconstrução"},{"en":"Dairy culls feeding beef supply","es":"Descartes lecheros alimentan oferta de carne","pt":"Descartes leiteiros alimentam oferta de carne"}],"forwardRisks":[{"en":"Replacement animals become expensive before cash flow improves","es":"La reposición encarece antes de mejorar caja","pt":"A reposição encarece antes do caixa melhorar"},{"en":"Regional herd concentration changes basis","es":"Concentración regional cambia la base","pt":"Concentração regional muda a base"}],"refreshCadence":{"en":"Monthly to annual","es":"Mensual a anual","pt":"Mensal a anual"}},{"id":"input-finance-policy","name":{"en":"Inputs, finance, and policy","es":"Insumos, finanzas y política","pt":"Insumos, finanças e política"},"question":{"en":"Are fuel, fertilizer, labor, credit, insurance, or policy changing the farm margin?","es":"¿Combustible, fertilizante, mano de obra, crédito, seguro o política cambian el margen?","pt":"Combustível, fertilizante, mão de obra, crédito, seguro ou política mudam a margem?"},"headline":{"en":"The cattle decision is often an input-cost decision wearing a market-price disguise.","es":"La decisión ganadera muchas veces es una decisión de insumos disfrazada de precio.","pt":"A decisão pecuária muitas vezes é uma decisão de insumos disfarçada de preço."},"producerAction":{"en":"Stress-test cash flow and input coverage before expanding cattle, feed, or crop exposure.","es":"Probar caja y cobertura de insumos antes de ampliar ganado, alimento o cultivos.","pt":"Testar caixa e cobertura de insumos antes de ampliar gado, ração ou culturas."},"regions":["north-america","latin-america","oceania","europe","africa-asia"],"sectors":["beef","dairy","feed","crops"],"sourceIds":["eia-fuel","bls-ag-inputs","fred-ag-macro","imf-ifs","usda-rma","usda-fsa","world-bank-wdi","world-bank-pink-sheet","gdelt-global-news","reliefweb-agriculture"],"historicalDriverIds":["credit-cost-to-retention","policy-change-to-farm-incentive","logistics-to-local-basis","geopolitical-shock-to-feed-freight"],"scenarioIds":["fertilizer-energy-squeeze","credit-interest-squeeze","geopolitical-shipping-shock","policy-subsidy-rule-change"],"leadingSignals":[{"en":"Diesel, fertilizer, labor, and borrowing cost","es":"Diésel, fertilizante, mano de obra y costo financiero","pt":"Diesel, fertilizante, mão de obra e custo financeiro"},{"en":"Insurance, subsidy, and disaster program changes","es":"Cambios en seguro, subsidio y programas de desastre","pt":"Mudanças em seguro, subsídio e programas de desastre"},{"en":"Macro stress that tightens operating credit","es":"Estrés macro que aprieta crédito operativo","pt":"Estresse macro que aperta crédito operacional"}],"forwardRisks":[{"en":"Cash flow tightens even if cattle price looks strong","es":"La caja se aprieta aunque el precio parezca fuerte","pt":"O caixa aperta mesmo com preço forte"},{"en":"Input coverage becomes the real bottleneck","es":"La cobertura de insumos se vuelve el cuello de botella","pt":"A cobertura de insumos vira o gargalo"}],"refreshCadence":{"en":"Daily to monthly","es":"Diario a mensual","pt":"Diário a mensal"}}],"decisionPathSummary":{"totalPaths":151,"highConfidencePaths":29,"linkedHistoricalDrivers":11,"linkedScenarioModels":13,"linkedSourceFamilies":146},"regions":[{"id":"north-america","name":{"en":"North America","es":"Norteamérica","pt":"América do Norte"},"shortName":"North America","currency":"USD","unit":"lb","headline":{"en":"Tight supply makes every pound and every feed decision matter.","es":"La oferta ajustada hace que cada libra y cada decisión de alimento importen.","pt":"A oferta apertada faz cada libra e cada decisão de ração importar."},"dailyBrief":{"en":"Track feeder and fed cattle bids, boxed beef, feed cost, drought, pasture condition, and disease or border movement before choosing sell, hold, hedge, or feed.","es":"Seguir precios de invernada y gordo, carne en caja, alimento, sequía, pasto y sanidad antes de vender, retener, cubrir o alimentar.","pt":"Acompanhar recria e boi gordo, carne no atacado, ração, seca, pasto e sanidade antes de vender, reter, fazer hedge ou alimentar."},"producerTakeaway":{"en":"The useful decision is not a price headline. It is whether the next 50 lb still pays after feed, freight, weather, and buyer risk.","es":"La decisión útil no es el titular de precio. Es si las próximas libras pagan después de alimento, flete, clima y comprador.","pt":"A decisão útil não é o título de preço. É se as próximas libras pagam após ração, frete, clima e risco do comprador."},"weatherAndFeed":{"en":"Drought, pasture condition, hay, corn, diesel, and heat load are the daily feed-margin signals.","es":"Sequía, pasto, heno, maíz, diésel y calor son señales diarias de margen.","pt":"Seca, pasto, feno, milho, diesel e calor são sinais diários de margem."},"tradeAndPolicy":{"en":"Exports, border movement, APHIS notices, slaughter pace, and futures positioning can move bids quickly.","es":"Exportación, frontera, avisos sanitarios, faena y futuros pueden mover ofertas rápido.","pt":"Exportação, fronteira, avisos sanitários, abate e futuros podem mover ofertas rápido."},"riskScore":63,"opportunityScore":78,"marketSignals":[{"id":"na-cash-cattle","label":{"en":"Cash cattle","es":"Ganado disponible","pt":"Gado físico"},"value":"Firm","change":{"en":"tight supply","es":"oferta ajustada","pt":"oferta apertada"},"tone":"up","detail":{"en":"Tight cattle supply keeps the sale window sensitive to packer bids, slaughter pace, and boxed beef support.","es":"La oferta ajustada hace que la venta dependa de frigoríficos, faena y carne en caja.","pt":"A oferta apertada deixa a venda sensível a frigoríficos, abate e carne no atacado."},"sector":"beef","sourceId":"usda-ams","confidence":86},{"id":"na-forage","label":{"en":"Forage pressure","es":"Presión de forraje","pt":"Pressão de pasto"},"value":"Watch","change":{"en":"weekly drought map","es":"mapa semanal de sequía","pt":"mapa semanal de seca"},"tone":"risk","detail":{"en":"Drought and pasture condition decide whether extra weight is cheap gain or expensive feed risk.","es":"Sequía y condición de pasto deciden si el peso extra es ganancia barata o riesgo caro.","pt":"Seca e condição do pasto decidem se peso extra é ganho barato ou risco caro."},"sector":"feed","sourceId":"us-drought-monitor","confidence":88},{"id":"na-dairy-cull","label":{"en":"Cull cow flow","es":"Descarte lechero","pt":"Descarte leiteiro"},"value":"Margin-led","change":{"en":"milk vs feed","es":"leche vs alimento","pt":"leite vs ração"},"tone":"neutral","detail":{"en":"Milk margin and feed cost decide whether dairy cows stay in production or move into beef supply.","es":"El margen leche-alimento decide si vacas lecheras siguen o entran a oferta de carne.","pt":"A margem leite-ração decide se vacas ficam produzindo ou entram na oferta de carne."},"sector":"dairy","sourceId":"usda-ams","confidence":78},{"id":"na-health","label":{"en":"Health movement","es":"Movimiento sanitario","pt":"Movimentação sanitária"},"value":"Check","change":{"en":"event-driven","es":"por evento","pt":"por evento"},"tone":"neutral","detail":{"en":"Disease and movement rules can matter more than price when cattle cross state, province, or border lines.","es":"Sanidad y movimiento pueden importar más que precio al cruzar estados o fronteras.","pt":"Sanidade e movimento podem pesar mais que preço ao cruzar estados ou fronteiras."},"sector":"animal-health","sourceId":"usda-aphis","confidence":82},{"id":"na-crop-feed-balance","label":{"en":"Crop-feed balance","es":"Balance cultivo-alimento","pt":"Balanço cultura-ração"},"value":"Tight watch","change":{"en":"WASDE + crop progress","es":"WASDE + avance cultivo","pt":"WASDE + progresso da safra"},"tone":"risk","detail":{"en":"Corn, hay, pasture, and crop-condition changes move feed cost before livestock reports catch up.","es":"Maíz, heno, pasto y condición de cultivo mueven alimento antes del dato ganadero.","pt":"Milho, feno, pasto e condição da safra movem ração antes do dado pecuário."},"sector":"crops","sourceId":"usda-wasde","confidence":85}],"localMarkets":[{"name":"Southern Plains","country":"United States","role":{"en":"feedlot and fed cattle read","es":"feedlot y gordo","pt":"confinamento e boi gordo"},"risk":68,"mainDriver":{"en":"feed cost and drought","es":"alimento y sequía","pt":"ração e seca"},"updateCadence":"daily"},{"name":"Northern Plains","country":"United States","role":{"en":"feeder supply and weather","es":"oferta de invernada y clima","pt":"oferta de recria e clima"},"risk":59,"mainDriver":{"en":"pasture and feeder runs","es":"pasto y remates","pt":"pasto e leilões"},"updateCadence":"weekly"},{"name":"Canadian Prairies","country":"Canada","role":{"en":"cross-border and feedgrain market","es":"frontera y granos","pt":"fronteira e grãos"},"risk":54,"mainDriver":{"en":"FX, feed, border movement","es":"cambio, alimento, frontera","pt":"câmbio, ração, fronteira"},"updateCadence":"weekly"}],"weightValueModel":[{"class":{"en":"Light calf","es":"Ternero liviano","pt":"Bezerro leve"},"weight":450,"pricePerUnit":365,"estimatedValue":1643},{"class":{"en":"Weaned calf","es":"Ternero destetado","pt":"Bezerro desmamado"},"weight":550,"pricePerUnit":335,"estimatedValue":1843},{"class":{"en":"Feeder steer","es":"Novillo de invernada","pt":"Garrote de recria"},"weight":800,"pricePerUnit":285,"estimatedValue":2280},{"class":{"en":"Finished steer","es":"Novillo terminado","pt":"Boi terminado"},"weight":1350,"pricePerUnit":228,"estimatedValue":3078}],"feedMarginBridge":[{"label":{"en":"Feeder value","es":"Valor de compra","pt":"Valor de entrada"},"value":2280},{"label":{"en":"Feed and yardage","es":"Alimento y corral","pt":"Ração e diária"},"value":-615},{"label":{"en":"Health and freight","es":"Sanidad y flete","pt":"Sanidade e frete"},"value":-95},{"label":{"en":"Finished value","es":"Valor terminado","pt":"Valor terminado"},"value":3078},{"label":{"en":"Gross spread","es":"Margen bruto","pt":"Spread bruto"},"value":1088}],"driverStack":[{"driver":{"en":"Herd cycle tightness","es":"Ciclo del hato ajustado","pt":"Ciclo do rebanho apertado"},"score":82,"movement":"up","why":{"en":"Scarce supply supports bids but raises replacement risk.","es":"Oferta escasa apoya precios y encarece reposición.","pt":"Oferta escassa sustenta preços e encarece reposição."}},{"driver":{"en":"Feed and forage cost","es":"Costo de alimento y forraje","pt":"Custo de ração e pasto"},"score":68,"movement":"risk","why":{"en":"Margin can disappear even when cattle prices are high.","es":"El margen puede desaparecer aun con precios altos.","pt":"A margem pode sumir mesmo com preços altos."}},{"driver":{"en":"Export and slaughter pace","es":"Exportación y faena","pt":"Exportação e abate"},"score":57,"movement":"neutral","why":{"en":"Processor demand decides whether heavier cattle are rewarded.","es":"La demanda frigorífica decide si más peso paga.","pt":"A demanda frigorífica decide se mais peso paga."}}],"watchlist":[{"en":"Feeder auction spreads by weight class","es":"Diferenciales de remate por peso","pt":"Diferenças de leilão por peso"},{"en":"Pasture condition and drought changes","es":"Condición de pasto y sequía","pt":"Condição de pasto e seca"},{"en":"Feed, diesel, and freight costs","es":"Alimento, diésel y flete","pt":"Ração, diesel e frete"},{"en":"Disease, border, and movement notices","es":"Sanidad, frontera y movimiento","pt":"Sanidade, fronteira e movimentação"}]},{"id":"latin-america","name":{"en":"Latin America","es":"América Latina","pt":"América Latina"},"shortName":"Latin America","currency":"BRL","unit":"kg","headline":{"en":"Pasture, currency, export access, and breed-specific weight confidence drive the decision.","es":"Pasto, cambio, exportación y confianza de peso por raza mueven la decisión.","pt":"Pasto, câmbio, exportação e confiança de peso por raça movem a decisão."},"dailyBrief":{"en":"Read local live cattle bids with rainfall, dry-season supplement, exchange rate, sanitary access, and tropical breed/body-shape context.","es":"Leer ofertas locales con lluvia, suplemento de seca, tipo de cambio, sanidad y contexto racial tropical.","pt":"Ler preços locais com chuva, suplemento da seca, câmbio, sanidade e contexto racial tropical."},"producerTakeaway":{"en":"Tropical systems need local rain, export, currency, and weight-confidence signals.","es":"Los sistemas tropicales necesitan lluvia, exportación, cambio y señales locales de peso.","pt":"Sistemas tropicais precisam de chuva, exportação, câmbio e sinais locais de peso."},"weatherAndFeed":{"en":"Rainfall timing, pasture regrowth, mineral cost, supplement availability, and heat load drive holding value.","es":"Lluvia, rebrote, mineral, suplemento y calor determinan el valor de retener.","pt":"Chuva, rebrota, mineral, suplemento e calor determinam o valor de reter."},"tradeAndPolicy":{"en":"Currency, sanitary certification, China and regional exports, and processor capacity can move local bids.","es":"Cambio, certificación sanitaria, exportación a China/regional y frigoríficos mueven ofertas.","pt":"Câmbio, certificação sanitária, China/regional e frigoríficos movem preços."},"riskScore":71,"opportunityScore":83,"marketSignals":[{"id":"la-boi-gordo","label":{"en":"Live cattle bid","es":"Oferta de ganado","pt":"Arroba do boi"},"value":"FX-linked","change":{"en":"exports + currency","es":"exportación + cambio","pt":"exportação + câmbio"},"tone":"up","detail":{"en":"Local cattle bids can change quickly when export demand, exchange rate, or processor capacity moves.","es":"La oferta local cambia rápido con exportación, tipo de cambio o capacidad frigorífica.","pt":"O preço local muda rápido com exportação, câmbio ou capacidade frigorífica."},"sector":"beef","sourceId":"cepea-boi","confidence":84},{"id":"la-pasture","label":{"en":"Pasture season","es":"Temporada de pasto","pt":"Safra de pasto"},"value":"Rain-driven","change":{"en":"dry season risk","es":"riesgo de seca","pt":"risco da seca"},"tone":"risk","detail":{"en":"Rainfall, mineral, and supplement cost decide whether holding cattle adds value in tropical systems.","es":"Lluvia, mineral y suplemento deciden si retener ganado agrega valor en sistemas tropicales.","pt":"Chuva, mineral e suplemento decidem se reter gado agrega valor em sistemas tropicais."},"sector":"feed","sourceId":"nasa-power","confidence":82},{"id":"la-milk","label":{"en":"Milk solids","es":"Sólidos de leche","pt":"Sólidos do leite"},"value":"Regional","change":{"en":"feed and heat","es":"alimento y calor","pt":"ração e calor"},"tone":"neutral","detail":{"en":"Heat, feed cost, and local milk collection determine whether dairy cattle move into beef supply.","es":"Calor, alimento y acopio de leche definen descarte y oferta de carne.","pt":"Calor, ração e captação de leite definem descarte e oferta de carne."},"sector":"dairy","sourceId":"ibge-sidra","confidence":75},{"id":"la-sanitary","label":{"en":"Sanitary access","es":"Acceso sanitario","pt":"Acesso sanitário"},"value":"Critical","change":{"en":"trade gate","es":"puerta comercial","pt":"porta comercial"},"tone":"risk","detail":{"en":"Disease status and sanitary certification affect export eligibility and farm-to-farm buyer confidence.","es":"Estatus sanitario y certificación afectan exportación y confianza entre fincas.","pt":"Status sanitário e certificação afetam exportação e confiança entre fazendas."},"sector":"animal-health","sourceId":"woah-wahis","confidence":87},{"id":"la-crop-inputs","label":{"en":"Crop and input pressure","es":"Presión de cultivos e insumos","pt":"Pressão de culturas e insumos"},"value":"FX-led","change":{"en":"fertilizer + export crops","es":"fertilizante + exportación","pt":"fertilizante + exportação"},"tone":"risk","detail":{"en":"Soy, corn, fertilizer, fuel, and currency can change feed and pasture economics faster than cattle volume.","es":"Soja, maíz, fertilizante, combustible y cambio mueven alimento y pasto rápido.","pt":"Soja, milho, fertilizante, combustível e câmbio movem ração e pasto rápido."},"sector":"crops","sourceId":"conab","confidence":81}],"localMarkets":[{"name":"Mato Grosso","country":"Brazil","role":{"en":"pasture and export-linked cattle","es":"pasto y exportación","pt":"pasto e exportação"},"risk":72,"mainDriver":{"en":"rain, arroba, currency","es":"lluvia, arroba, cambio","pt":"chuva, arroba, câmbio"},"updateCadence":"daily"},{"name":"São Paulo","country":"Brazil","role":{"en":"reference price and processing","es":"precio de referencia y frigorífico","pt":"referência de preço e frigorífico"},"risk":61,"mainDriver":{"en":"CEPEA indicator and beef demand","es":"indicador CEPEA y demanda","pt":"indicador CEPEA e demanda"},"updateCadence":"daily"},{"name":"Northern Mexico","country":"Mexico","role":{"en":"border cattle and feeder flows","es":"frontera y becerros","pt":"fronteira e bezerros"},"risk":66,"mainDriver":{"en":"border rules, feed, FX","es":"frontera, alimento, cambio","pt":"fronteira, ração, câmbio"},"updateCadence":"weekly"},{"name":"Pampas","country":"Argentina","role":{"en":"export policy and pasture","es":"política exportadora y pasto","pt":"política exportadora e pasto"},"risk":69,"mainDriver":{"en":"sanitary status and currency","es":"sanidad y cambio","pt":"sanidade e câmbio"},"updateCadence":"weekly"}],"weightValueModel":[{"class":{"en":"Tropical calf","es":"Ternero tropical","pt":"Bezerro tropical"},"weight":220,"pricePerUnit":6.9,"estimatedValue":1518},{"class":{"en":"Nellore weaner","es":"Nelore destetado","pt":"Nelore desmamado"},"weight":300,"pricePerUnit":6.4,"estimatedValue":1920},{"class":{"en":"Pasture feeder","es":"Recría a pasto","pt":"Recria a pasto"},"weight":420,"pricePerUnit":5.9,"estimatedValue":2478},{"class":{"en":"Finished animal","es":"Animal terminado","pt":"Boi terminado"},"weight":540,"pricePerUnit":5.3,"estimatedValue":2862}],"feedMarginBridge":[{"label":{"en":"Entry value","es":"Valor de entrada","pt":"Valor de entrada"},"value":1920},{"label":{"en":"Pasture and mineral","es":"Pasto y mineral","pt":"Pasto e mineral"},"value":-318},{"label":{"en":"Dry-season supplement","es":"Suplemento de seca","pt":"Suplemento da seca"},"value":-240},{"label":{"en":"Sale value","es":"Valor de venta","pt":"Valor de venda"},"value":2862},{"label":{"en":"Gross spread","es":"Margen bruto","pt":"Spread bruto"},"value":942}],"driverStack":[{"driver":{"en":"Pasture and rainfall","es":"Pasto y lluvia","pt":"Pasto e chuva"},"score":86,"movement":"risk","why":{"en":"Forage cost drives the real weight-to-value equation.","es":"El forraje define el peso a valor real.","pt":"O pasto define o peso para valor real."}},{"driver":{"en":"Export and FX","es":"Exportación y cambio","pt":"Exportação e câmbio"},"score":78,"movement":"up","why":{"en":"A stronger export bid can move local cattle quickly.","es":"Una oferta exportadora mueve el precio local rápido.","pt":"Uma oferta exportadora move o preço local rápido."}},{"driver":{"en":"Sanitary access","es":"Acceso sanitario","pt":"Acesso sanitário"},"score":74,"movement":"risk","why":{"en":"Health status can open or close buyer channels.","es":"La sanidad abre o cierra compradores.","pt":"Sanidade abre ou fecha compradores."}}],"watchlist":[{"en":"State-level live cattle price and currency","es":"Precio por estado y cambio","pt":"Preço por estado e câmbio"},{"en":"Rainfall, pasture, and supplement cost","es":"Lluvia, pasto y suplemento","pt":"Chuva, pasto e suplemento"},{"en":"Sanitary certification and export access","es":"Certificación sanitaria y exportación","pt":"Certificação sanitária e exportação"},{"en":"Breed-specific weight confidence","es":"Confianza de peso por raza","pt":"Confiança de peso por raça"}]},{"id":"oceania","name":{"en":"Oceania","es":"Oceanía","pt":"Oceania"},"shortName":"Oceania","currency":"AUD","unit":"kg","headline":{"en":"Rainfall, restocking, freight, and biosecurity dominate large-scale cattle decisions.","es":"Lluvia, reposición, flete y bioseguridad dominan decisiones a gran escala.","pt":"Chuva, reposição, frete e biossegurança dominam decisões de escala."},"dailyBrief":{"en":"Track saleyard indicators, district rainfall, pasture recovery, grain cost, freight, live export policy, and biosecurity status.","es":"Seguir remates, lluvia por distrito, pasto, grano, flete, exportación viva y bioseguridad.","pt":"Acompanhar leilões, chuva por distrito, pasto, grãos, frete, exportação viva e biossegurança."},"producerTakeaway":{"en":"Large mobs and long distances make bad timing expensive. Tie price to rain, freight, and entry weight.","es":"Rodeos grandes y distancias largas encarecen errores. Unir precio con lluvia, flete y peso.","pt":"Lotes grandes e longas distâncias tornam erro caro. Ligar preço a chuva, frete e peso."},"weatherAndFeed":{"en":"Rainfall, pasture biomass, water, grain ration cost, and freight decide sell, agist, or feedlot.","es":"Lluvia, pasto, agua, grano y flete deciden vender, agistar o confinar.","pt":"Chuva, pasto, água, grão e frete decidem vender, arrendar ou confinar."},"tradeAndPolicy":{"en":"Export demand, processor capacity, biosecurity rules, and live export policy change buyer access.","es":"Exportación, frigoríficos, bioseguridad y exportación viva cambian compradores.","pt":"Exportação, frigoríficos, biossegurança e exportação viva mudam compradores."},"riskScore":58,"opportunityScore":74,"marketSignals":[{"id":"oc-saleyard","label":{"en":"Saleyard competition","es":"Competencia en remate","pt":"Competição no leilão"},"value":"Rain-led","change":{"en":"restocker appetite","es":"apetito reposición","pt":"apetite de reposição"},"tone":"up","detail":{"en":"Rainfall recovery can lift store cattle and restocker demand before slaughter data confirms it.","es":"La recuperación de lluvia puede levantar reposición antes de que la faena lo confirme.","pt":"A recuperação de chuva pode elevar reposição antes que o abate confirme."},"sector":"beef","sourceId":"mla-api","confidence":86},{"id":"oc-water","label":{"en":"Water and pasture","es":"Agua y pasto","pt":"Água e pasto"},"value":"Variable","change":{"en":"district-by-district","es":"por distrito","pt":"por distrito"},"tone":"risk","detail":{"en":"Pasture, water, and long freight distances decide whether to sell, agist, or feedlot cattle.","es":"Pasto, agua y fletes largos deciden vender, agistar o llevar a feedlot.","pt":"Pasto, água e fretes longos decidem vender, arrendar pasto ou confinar."},"sector":"feed","sourceId":"bom-climate","confidence":84},{"id":"oc-dairy","label":{"en":"Dairy export tone","es":"Tono exportador lácteo","pt":"Tom exportador lácteo"},"value":"Watch","change":{"en":"milk solids","es":"sólidos","pt":"sólidos"},"tone":"neutral","detail":{"en":"Milk solids pricing and pasture quality affect feed decisions and cull cow availability.","es":"Sólidos y calidad de pasto afectan dieta y vacas de descarte.","pt":"Sólidos e qualidade do pasto afetam dieta e vacas de descarte."},"sector":"dairy","sourceId":"stats-nz","confidence":73},{"id":"oc-biosecurity","label":{"en":"Biosecurity","es":"Bioseguridad","pt":"Biossegurança"},"value":"High value","change":{"en":"export access","es":"acceso exportador","pt":"acesso exportador"},"tone":"neutral","detail":{"en":"Biosecurity events affect buyer confidence and export premiums in high-value supply chains.","es":"Eventos sanitarios afectan confianza y primas de exportación.","pt":"Eventos sanitários afetam confiança e prêmios de exportação."},"sector":"animal-health","sourceId":"woah-wahis","confidence":81},{"id":"oc-grain-season","label":{"en":"Grain season","es":"Temporada de grano","pt":"Safra de grãos"},"value":"Weather-led","change":{"en":"rain + export parity","es":"lluvia + paridad","pt":"chuva + paridade"},"tone":"neutral","detail":{"en":"Grain yield, export parity, and freight decide ration cost and whether cattle stay on pasture or move to feedlot.","es":"Rendimiento, paridad y flete deciden ración y si ganado va a feedlot.","pt":"Produtividade, paridade e frete decidem ração e ida ao confinamento."},"sector":"crops","sourceId":"abares","confidence":79}],"localMarkets":[{"name":"Queensland","country":"Australia","role":{"en":"restocker and pasture signal","es":"reposición y pasto","pt":"reposição e pasto"},"risk":62,"mainDriver":{"en":"rainfall recovery","es":"recuperación de lluvia","pt":"recuperação da chuva"},"updateCadence":"weekly"},{"name":"New South Wales","country":"Australia","role":{"en":"saleyard and lot-feeder entry","es":"remate y feedlot","pt":"leilão e confinamento"},"risk":55,"mainDriver":{"en":"grain and freight","es":"grano y flete","pt":"grão e frete"},"updateCadence":"weekly"},{"name":"Waikato","country":"New Zealand","role":{"en":"dairy-beef and milk solids","es":"leche-carne y sólidos","pt":"leite-carne e sólidos"},"risk":49,"mainDriver":{"en":"milk margin","es":"margen lechero","pt":"margem do leite"},"updateCadence":"weekly"}],"weightValueModel":[{"class":{"en":"Store calf","es":"Ternero de reposición","pt":"Bezerro de reposição"},"weight":260,"pricePerUnit":4.25,"estimatedValue":1105},{"class":{"en":"Backgrounder","es":"Recría","pt":"Recria"},"weight":380,"pricePerUnit":3.92,"estimatedValue":1490},{"class":{"en":"Feeder steer","es":"Novillo feedlot","pt":"Garrote confinamento"},"weight":500,"pricePerUnit":3.65,"estimatedValue":1825},{"class":{"en":"Finished steer","es":"Novillo terminado","pt":"Boi terminado"},"weight":640,"pricePerUnit":3.34,"estimatedValue":2138}],"feedMarginBridge":[{"label":{"en":"Store value","es":"Valor de reposición","pt":"Valor de reposição"},"value":1490},{"label":{"en":"Grain ration","es":"Ración de grano","pt":"Ração de grão"},"value":-430},{"label":{"en":"Freight and health","es":"Flete y sanidad","pt":"Frete e sanidade"},"value":-145},{"label":{"en":"Finished value","es":"Valor terminado","pt":"Valor terminado"},"value":2138},{"label":{"en":"Gross spread","es":"Margen bruto","pt":"Spread bruto"},"value":648}],"driverStack":[{"driver":{"en":"Rainfall recovery","es":"Recuperación de lluvia","pt":"Recuperação de chuva"},"score":80,"movement":"up","why":{"en":"Restocking appetite turns quickly when pasture recovers.","es":"Reposición cambia rápido cuando vuelve el pasto.","pt":"Reposição muda rápido quando o pasto volta."}},{"driver":{"en":"Freight and grain","es":"Flete y grano","pt":"Frete e grão"},"score":63,"movement":"risk","why":{"en":"Distance can erase margin in big mobs.","es":"La distancia puede borrar margen en lotes grandes.","pt":"A distância pode apagar margem em lotes grandes."}},{"driver":{"en":"Biosecurity and export access","es":"Bioseguridad y exportación","pt":"Biossegurança e exportação"},"score":59,"movement":"neutral","why":{"en":"Premium supply chains depend on buyer confidence.","es":"Cadenas premium dependen de confianza.","pt":"Cadeias premium dependem de confiança."}}],"watchlist":[{"en":"Saleyard indicators and restocker spreads","es":"Indicadores de remate y reposición","pt":"Indicadores de leilão e reposição"},{"en":"Rainfall, water, and pasture recovery","es":"Lluvia, agua y pasto","pt":"Chuva, água e pasto"},{"en":"Grain ration and freight cost","es":"Ración de grano y flete","pt":"Ração de grão e frete"},{"en":"Biosecurity and export policy","es":"Bioseguridad y exportación","pt":"Biossegurança e exportação"}]},{"id":"europe","name":{"en":"Europe","es":"Europa","pt":"Europa"},"shortName":"Europe","currency":"EUR","unit":"kg","headline":{"en":"Dairy margins, winter feed, movement rules, and country-level supply drive cattle flow.","es":"Margen lechero, forraje, movimiento y oferta por país guían el flujo.","pt":"Margem do leite, forragem, movimentação e oferta por país guiam o fluxo."},"dailyBrief":{"en":"Read raw milk, dairy product prices, forage, energy, slaughter, animal movement rules, and farmgate cattle prices by country.","es":"Leer leche, lácteos, forraje, energía, faena, movimiento y precio por país.","pt":"Ler leite, lácteos, forragem, energia, abate, movimentação e preço por país."},"producerTakeaway":{"en":"Europe needs country-level reads. Milk margins and feed can move cull supply into beef before broad statistics catch up.","es":"Europa necesita lectura por país. Leche y alimento mueven descarte antes del dato agregado.","pt":"Europa precisa leitura por país. Leite e ração movem descarte antes do dado agregado."},"weatherAndFeed":{"en":"Winter forage, energy, housing, and feed availability decide whether carrying cattle adds value.","es":"Forraje, energía, estabulación y alimento deciden si retener agrega valor.","pt":"Forragem, energia, alojamento e ração decidem se reter agrega valor."},"tradeAndPolicy":{"en":"Animal movement, disease rules, border friction, subsidy changes, and dairy market policy shape access.","es":"Movimiento, sanidad, frontera, subsidios y política láctea moldean acceso.","pt":"Movimentação, sanidade, fronteira, subsídios e política láctea moldam acesso."},"riskScore":56,"opportunityScore":66,"marketSignals":[{"id":"eu-cull","label":{"en":"Cull cow supply","es":"Oferta de descarte","pt":"Oferta de descarte"},"value":"Margin-led","change":{"en":"milk + feed","es":"leche + alimento","pt":"leite + ração"},"tone":"neutral","detail":{"en":"Milk margins and feed prices can change the volume of dairy cows entering beef supply.","es":"Margen lechero y alimento cambian vacas lecheras que entran a carne.","pt":"Margem do leite e ração mudam vacas leiteiras que entram na carne."},"sector":"dairy","sourceId":"eu-milk","confidence":83},{"id":"eu-forage","label":{"en":"Winter forage","es":"Forraje de invierno","pt":"Forragem de inverno"},"value":"Costly","change":{"en":"housing season","es":"temporada establo","pt":"temporada de cocho"},"tone":"risk","detail":{"en":"Forage availability, housing, and energy cost shape whether keeping cattle adds value.","es":"Forraje, estabulación y energía definen si mantener ganado agrega valor.","pt":"Forragem, alojamento e energia definem se manter gado agrega valor."},"sector":"feed","sourceId":"eurostat-agri","confidence":78},{"id":"eu-beef","label":{"en":"Beef supply","es":"Oferta de carne","pt":"Oferta de carne"},"value":"Fragmented","change":{"en":"country-level","es":"por país","pt":"por país"},"tone":"neutral","detail":{"en":"Country-level slaughter, retail demand, and farmgate prices need local context.","es":"Faena, demanda minorista y precio a productor necesitan contexto local.","pt":"Abate, demanda varejista e preço ao produtor exigem contexto local."},"sector":"beef","sourceId":"eurostat-agri","confidence":76},{"id":"eu-movement","label":{"en":"Movement rules","es":"Reglas de movimiento","pt":"Regras de movimentação"},"value":"Check","change":{"en":"health + border","es":"sanidad + frontera","pt":"sanidade + fronteira"},"tone":"risk","detail":{"en":"Animal health rules, border checks, and local compliance can change buyer access.","es":"Sanidad, frontera y cumplimiento local cambian acceso del comprador.","pt":"Sanidade, fronteira e conformidade local mudam acesso do comprador."},"sector":"animal-health","sourceId":"woah-wahis","confidence":85},{"id":"eu-crop-inputs","label":{"en":"Crop input margin","es":"Margen de insumos agrícolas","pt":"Margem de insumos agrícolas"},"value":"Energy-linked","change":{"en":"fertilizer + energy","es":"fertilizante + energía","pt":"fertilizante + energia"},"tone":"risk","detail":{"en":"Energy, fertilizer, and crop prices change feed availability and winter forage economics.","es":"Energía, fertilizante y cultivos cambian alimento y forraje de invierno.","pt":"Energia, fertilizante e culturas mudam ração e forragem de inverno."},"sector":"crops","sourceId":"eu-agri-food-data","confidence":78}],"localMarkets":[{"name":"Ireland","country":"Ireland","role":{"en":"grass dairy-beef signal","es":"leche-carne a pasto","pt":"leite-carne a pasto"},"risk":48,"mainDriver":{"en":"milk margin and grass","es":"leche y pasto","pt":"leite e pasto"},"updateCadence":"weekly"},{"name":"France","country":"France","role":{"en":"beef, dairy, and feed cost","es":"carne, leche y alimento","pt":"carne, leite e ração"},"risk":55,"mainDriver":{"en":"forage and consumer demand","es":"forraje y consumo","pt":"forragem e consumo"},"updateCadence":"weekly"},{"name":"Germany","country":"Germany","role":{"en":"milk, cull, and policy","es":"leche, descarte y política","pt":"leite, descarte e política"},"risk":60,"mainDriver":{"en":"milk-feed spread","es":"diferencial leche-alimento","pt":"spread leite-ração"},"updateCadence":"weekly"}],"weightValueModel":[{"class":{"en":"Weaned calf","es":"Ternero destetado","pt":"Bezerro desmamado"},"weight":240,"pricePerUnit":4.5,"estimatedValue":1080},{"class":{"en":"Store animal","es":"Recría","pt":"Recria"},"weight":360,"pricePerUnit":4.1,"estimatedValue":1476},{"class":{"en":"Forward store","es":"Recría avanzada","pt":"Recria avançada"},"weight":480,"pricePerUnit":3.75,"estimatedValue":1800},{"class":{"en":"Finished animal","es":"Terminado","pt":"Terminado"},"weight":620,"pricePerUnit":3.52,"estimatedValue":2182}],"feedMarginBridge":[{"label":{"en":"Store value","es":"Valor recría","pt":"Valor recria"},"value":1476},{"label":{"en":"Winter feed","es":"Forraje invierno","pt":"Ração inverno"},"value":-380},{"label":{"en":"Health and transport","es":"Sanidad y transporte","pt":"Sanidade e transporte"},"value":-105},{"label":{"en":"Finished value","es":"Valor terminado","pt":"Valor terminado"},"value":2182},{"label":{"en":"Gross spread","es":"Margen bruto","pt":"Spread bruto"},"value":706}],"driverStack":[{"driver":{"en":"Milk-feed margin","es":"Margen leche-alimento","pt":"Margem leite-ração"},"score":73,"movement":"neutral","why":{"en":"Dairy economics can release beef supply.","es":"La economía lechera libera oferta de carne.","pt":"A economia leiteira libera oferta de carne."}},{"driver":{"en":"Winter forage","es":"Forraje invierno","pt":"Forragem inverno"},"score":64,"movement":"risk","why":{"en":"Housing and feed cost drive sell-or-hold.","es":"Establo y alimento guían vender o retener.","pt":"Cocho e ração guiam vender ou reter."}},{"driver":{"en":"Animal movement rules","es":"Reglas de movimiento","pt":"Regras de movimentação"},"score":61,"movement":"risk","why":{"en":"Access matters as much as price.","es":"El acceso importa tanto como el precio.","pt":"O acesso importa tanto quanto o preço."}}],"watchlist":[{"en":"Raw milk, butter, SMP, and whey prices","es":"Leche, manteca, leche en polvo y suero","pt":"Leite, manteiga, leite em pó e soro"},{"en":"Cull cow flow and slaughter by country","es":"Descarte y faena por país","pt":"Descarte e abate por país"},{"en":"Forage, energy, and winter housing cost","es":"Forraje, energía y establo","pt":"Forragem, energia e alojamento"},{"en":"Animal health and movement rules","es":"Sanidad y movimiento","pt":"Sanidade e movimentação"}]},{"id":"africa-asia","name":{"en":"Africa and Asia","es":"África y Asia","pt":"África e Ásia"},"shortName":"Africa + Asia","currency":"USD","unit":"kg","headline":{"en":"Feed access, disease risk, import rules, and infrastructure-light weight tracking matter most.","es":"Alimento, sanidad, importación y peso sin 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dairy, and global balance sheets","cadence":"Monthly","access":"Historical files and public report tables","officialUrl":"https://www.usda.gov/historical-wasde-report-data","endpointCount":260,"reliability":"Official","regions":["north-america","latin-america","oceania","europe","africa-asia"],"sectors":["feed","crops","beef","dairy"],"signals":["corn balance sheet","soybean balance sheet","feed use","dairy forecasts"]},{"id":"usda-ers-feed-grains","name":"USDA ERS Feed Grains Database","category":"Feed","coverage":"Corn, sorghum, barley, oats, hay, foreign coarse grains, animal unit indexes, rail rates, and grain shipments","cadence":"Monthly and annual","access":"Public data product","officialUrl":"https://ers.usda.gov/data-products/feed-grains-database/documentation","endpointCount":190,"reliability":"Official","regions":["north-america"],"sectors":["feed","crops","beef","dairy"],"signals":["feed grain supply","animal unit indexes","rail rates","grain 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API","officialUrl":"https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/international-trade-in-goods/database","endpointCount":360,"reliability":"Official","regions":["europe"],"sectors":["beef","dairy","feed","crops"],"signals":["beef imports","dairy exports","grain trade","fertilizer trade"]},{"id":"uk-defra","name":"UK Defra agriculture statistics","category":"Regional","coverage":"UK livestock, dairy, crop, farm income, input cost, and food-chain statistics","cadence":"Monthly to annual","access":"Public statistical releases and APIs","officialUrl":"https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics","endpointCount":160,"reliability":"Official","regions":["europe"],"sectors":["beef","dairy","feed","crops"],"signals":["farmgate prices","milk production","livestock population","input costs"]},{"id":"gdt-events","name":"Global Dairy Trade","category":"Dairy","coverage":"International dairy auction events, product prices, and forward dairy demand signals","cadence":"Twice monthly","access":"Public results and market data","officialUrl":"https://www.globaldairytrade.info/","endpointCount":45,"reliability":"Public market operator","regions":["oceania","europe","africa-asia","latin-america"],"sectors":["dairy"],"signals":["whole milk powder","skim milk powder","butter","auction demand"]},{"id":"nz-mpi","name":"New Zealand MPI agriculture data","category":"Regional","coverage":"New Zealand primary-sector production, dairy, meat, exports, farm monitoring, and forecasts","cadence":"Monthly to annual","access":"Public reports and datasets","officialUrl":"https://www.mpi.govt.nz/resources-and-forms/economic-intelligence/","endpointCount":140,"reliability":"Official","regions":["oceania"],"sectors":["beef","dairy","feed","crops"],"signals":["primary exports","farm monitoring","meat outlook","dairy outlook"]},{"id":"australia-daff","name":"Australia DAFF agricultural trade","category":"Trade","coverage":"Australian agricultural trade, market access, biosecurity, and commodity export 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meat, dairy, feed ingredient, and food-market information","cadence":"Daily to weekly","access":"Public SNIIM web system","officialUrl":"https://www.economia-sniim.gob.mx/","endpointCount":260,"reliability":"Official","regions":["latin-america","north-america"],"sectors":["beef","dairy","feed","crops"],"signals":["livestock price","meat price","feed ingredient","market volume"]},{"id":"mexico-conagua-smn","name":"Mexico CONAGUA-SMN climate data","category":"Weather","coverage":"Mexico weather, drought, precipitation, reservoir, and climate-monitoring information for livestock and crops","cadence":"Daily to monthly","access":"Public climate and water monitoring services","officialUrl":"https://smn.conagua.gob.mx/","endpointCount":260,"reliability":"Official","regions":["latin-america","north-america"],"sectors":["beef","dairy","feed","crops"],"signals":["drought","rainfall","reservoirs","temperature"]},{"id":"colombia-agronet","name":"Colombia 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agricultural policy statistics","cadence":"Monthly to annual","access":"Public statistics and reports","officialUrl":"https://www.maff.go.jp/","endpointCount":230,"reliability":"Official","regions":["africa-asia"],"sectors":["beef","dairy","feed","crops"],"signals":["beef market","dairy market","feed supply","policy"]},{"id":"japan-alic","name":"Japan ALIC livestock information","category":"Prices","coverage":"Japan livestock, dairy, meat, import, price, and demand information","cadence":"Weekly to monthly","access":"Public market reports and statistics","officialUrl":"https://www.alic.go.jp/","endpointCount":160,"reliability":"Official","regions":["africa-asia"],"sectors":["beef","dairy","feed"],"signals":["beef prices","dairy prices","imports","demand"]},{"id":"south-korea-krei","name":"Korea Rural Economic Institute","category":"Regional","coverage":"South Korea agricultural outlook, livestock, dairy, feed, price, import, and policy analysis","cadence":"Monthly to 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prospects","food prices","imports","country risk"]},{"id":"fao-empres-i","name":"FAO EMPRES-i animal disease events","category":"Disease","coverage":"Global animal disease event monitoring and early-warning context for transboundary animal disease","cadence":"Event-driven","access":"Public platform and reports","officialUrl":"https://empres-i.apps.fao.org/","endpointCount":260,"reliability":"Official","regions":["north-america","latin-america","oceania","europe","africa-asia"],"sectors":["animal-health","beef","dairy"],"signals":["animal disease events","early warning","transboundary risk","movement risk"]},{"id":"panama-canal-authority","name":"Panama Canal Authority operations","category":"Ports","coverage":"Canal water, transit restrictions, vessel queues, draft limits, and logistics context for global trade flows","cadence":"Daily to monthly","access":"Public operations pages and statistics","officialUrl":"https://pancanal.com/","endpointCount":90,"reliability":"Official","regions":["north-america","latin-america","africa-asia","europe","oceania"],"sectors":["beef","dairy","feed","crops"],"signals":["transit restrictions","water level","vessel queues","logistics risk"]},{"id":"suez-canal-authority","name":"Suez Canal Authority traffic statistics","category":"Ports","coverage":"Canal transit, tonnage, vessel traffic, route disruption, and trade-logistics context","cadence":"Monthly and event-driven","access":"Public statistics and announcements","officialUrl":"https://www.suezcanal.gov.eg/","endpointCount":80,"reliability":"Official","regions":["europe","africa-asia","oceania"],"sectors":["beef","dairy","feed","crops"],"signals":["canal traffic","route disruption","freight risk","tonnage"]},{"id":"baltic-exchange","name":"Baltic Exchange freight indexes","category":"Ports","coverage":"Dry bulk and shipping freight indexes relevant to grain, feed, fertilizer, and protein trade costs","cadence":"Daily","access":"Licensed market data and public index context","officialUrl":"https://www.balticexchange.com/","endpointCount":45,"reliability":"Exchange","regions":["north-america","latin-america","oceania","europe","africa-asia"],"sectors":["feed","crops","beef","dairy"],"signals":["dry bulk freight","grain freight","fertilizer freight","shipping cost"]},{"id":"usda-oce-port-grain","name":"USDA OCE grain transportation","category":"Ports","coverage":"U.S. grain transportation, barge, rail, truck, ocean freight, port, and export logistics indicators","cadence":"Weekly","access":"Public reports and datasets","officialUrl":"https://www.ams.usda.gov/services/transportation-analysis","endpointCount":180,"reliability":"Official","regions":["north-america"],"sectors":["feed","crops","beef","dairy"],"signals":["grain transportation","rail rates","barge rates","ocean freight"]}],"sourceGraphEdges":[{"id":"ams-price-to-sale-window","sourceId":"usda-ams","from":"Cash cattle, feeder cattle, auctions, boxed beef","driver":{"en":"Local bid strength and packer leverage","es":"Fuerza de la oferta local y poder del frigorífico","pt":"Força da oferta local e poder do frigorífico"},"affects":{"en":"Sale timing, weight class target, and hedge urgency","es":"Momento de venta, clase de peso y urgencia de cobertura","pt":"Momento de venda, classe de peso e urgência de hedge"},"producerDecision":{"en":"Sell now, add pounds, or price-protect cattle before bids soften.","es":"Vender ahora, agregar kilos o proteger precio antes de que las ofertas bajen.","pt":"Vender agora, adicionar peso ou proteger preço antes que as ofertas enfraqueçam."},"lag":"0-2 days","regions":["north-america"],"sectors":["beef","dairy"],"confidence":91},{"id":"drought-to-retention","sourceId":"us-drought-monitor","from":"Drought class, weekly narrative, pasture stress","driver":{"en":"Forage pressure and early liquidation risk","es":"Presión de forraje y riesgo de venta temprana","pt":"Pressão de pasto e risco de venda antecipada"},"affects":{"en":"Cow retention, hay demand, calf movement, and replacement price","es":"Retención de vacas, demanda de heno, movimiento de terneros y reposición","pt":"Retenção de matrizes, demanda por feno, movimento de bezerros e reposição"},"producerDecision":{"en":"Compare forage inventory against the value of carrying cattle longer.","es":"Comparar inventario de forraje contra el valor de mantener ganado más tiempo.","pt":"Comparar estoque de pasto e feno com o valor de manter o gado por mais tempo."},"lag":"1-4 weeks","regions":["north-america"],"sectors":["beef","dairy","feed"],"confidence":88},{"id":"nass-inventory-to-cycle","sourceId":"usda-nass","from":"Inventory, placements, pasture, hay, crop data","driver":{"en":"Herd cycle, feeder supply, and feed availability","es":"Ciclo del hato, oferta de invernada y disponibilidad de alimento","pt":"Ciclo do rebanho, oferta de recria e disponibilidade de ração"},"affects":{"en":"Replacement strategy, retained heifers, and forward feeder supply","es":"Estrategia de reposición, vaquillonas retenidas y oferta futura","pt":"Estratégia de reposição, novilhas retidas e oferta futura"},"producerDecision":{"en":"Decide whether scarce replacement animals are worth keeping or selling.","es":"Decidir si la reposición escasa vale más retenida o vendida.","pt":"Decidir se a reposição escassa vale mais retida ou vendida."},"lag":"1 month to 1 year","regions":["north-america"],"sectors":["beef","dairy","feed"],"confidence":86},{"id":"fas-trade-to-basis","sourceId":"usda-fas","from":"Exports, imports, PSD, GAIN reports","driver":{"en":"Export pull and trade-policy pressure","es":"Demanda exportadora y presión de política comercial","pt":"Demanda exportadora e pressão de política comercial"},"affects":{"en":"Processor bids, regional basis, offal value, and cull cow demand","es":"Ofertas de frigorífico, base regional, subproductos y vaca de descarte","pt":"Ofertas de frigorífico, base regional, miúdos e vacas de descarte"},"producerDecision":{"en":"Watch buyer access before committing volume into a weak local bid.","es":"Mirar el acceso de compradores antes de comprometer volumen con oferta débil.","pt":"Observar acesso de compradores antes de comprometer volume com oferta fraca."},"lag":"1-6 weeks","regions":["north-america","latin-america","oceania","europe","africa-asia"],"sectors":["beef","dairy"],"confidence":84},{"id":"cepea-ibge-brazil-price","sourceId":"cepea-boi","from":"Boi gordo, calf, corn, soybean indicators","driver":{"en":"Brazil pasture-fed margin and export-linked cattle bid","es":"Margen pastoril brasileño y oferta vinculada a exportación","pt":"Margem a pasto no Brasil e preço ligado à exportação"},"affects":{"en":"State-level sale timing, dry-season supplement, and farm-to-farm price trust","es":"Venta por estado, suplementación de seca y confianza en precio entre fincas","pt":"Venda por estado, suplementação da seca e confiança no preço entre fazendas"},"producerDecision":{"en":"Convert live price, exchange rate, and expected gain into a local sale window.","es":"Convertir precio vivo, tipo de cambio y ganancia esperada en ventana de venta.","pt":"Converter arroba, câmbio e ganho esperado em janela local de venda."},"lag":"0-7 days","regions":["latin-america"],"sectors":["beef","feed"],"confidence":85},{"id":"nasa-weather-to-heat","sourceId":"nasa-power","from":"Temperature, humidity, wind, rainfall by coordinate","driver":{"en":"Heat load, water stress, and pasture regrowth","es":"Carga de calor, estrés hídrico y rebrote de pasto","pt":"Carga de calor, estresse hídrico e rebrota de pasto"},"affects":{"en":"Gain, intake, fertility, death loss risk, and shade or water planning","es":"Ganancia, consumo, fertilidad, mortandad y plan de sombra o agua","pt":"Ganho, consumo, fertilidade, mortalidade e plano de sombra ou água"},"producerDecision":{"en":"Adjust transport, feeding time, stocking rate, and water checks before stress peaks.","es":"Ajustar transporte, horario de alimentación, carga animal y agua antes del pico.","pt":"Ajustar transporte, horário de trato, lotação e água antes do pico."},"lag":"0-10 days","regions":["north-america","latin-america","oceania","europe","africa-asia"],"sectors":["beef","dairy","feed"],"confidence":83},{"id":"open-meteo-forecast-to-forward-forage","sourceId":"open-meteo-forecast","from":"7-day precipitation and temperature forecast by geo node","driver":{"en":"Forward pasture, heat, water, and forage pressure","es":"Presión futura de pasto, calor, agua y forraje","pt":"Pressão futura de pasto, calor, água e forragem"},"affects":{"en":"Sale timing, feed coverage, water checks, milk yield, weight gain, and crop-feed risk","es":"Momento de venta, cobertura de alimento, agua, leche, ganancia de peso y riesgo de cultivo para ración","pt":"Momento de venda, cobertura de ração, água, leite, ganho de peso e risco de lavoura para ração"},"producerDecision":{"en":"Use the next-week rain and heat forecast before moving cattle, buying hay, changing supplement, or holding weight.","es":"Usar el pronóstico de lluvia y calor de la próxima semana antes de mover ganado, comprar heno, cambiar suplemento o retener peso.","pt":"Usar a previsão de chuva e calor da próxima semana antes de mover gado, comprar feno, mudar suplemento ou reter peso."},"lag":"0-14 days","regions":["north-america","latin-america","oceania","europe","africa-asia"],"sectors":["beef","dairy","feed","crops"],"confidence":78},{"id":"cftc-positioning-to-hedge-feed-risk","sourceId":"cftc-cot","from":"Managed money, commercial, and open-interest positioning in live cattle, feeder cattle, corn, and soybean meal","driver":{"en":"Speculative positioning and commercial hedge pressure","es":"Posicionamiento especulativo y presión de cobertura comercial","pt":"Posicionamento especulativo e pressão de hedge comercial"},"affects":{"en":"Hedge timing, basis risk, feeder bids, feed coverage, and retained-ownership risk","es":"Momento de cobertura, riesgo de base, invernada, cobertura de alimento y riesgo de propiedad retenida","pt":"Momento de hedge, risco de base, recria, cobertura de ração e risco de propriedade retida"},"producerDecision":{"en":"Use COT positioning as a weekly stress check before leaving cattle, corn, or soybean-meal exposure unprotected.","es":"Usar COT como prueba semanal antes de dejar exposición a ganado, maíz o harina de soja sin protección.","pt":"Usar COT como teste semanal antes de deixar exposição a boi, milho ou farelo sem proteção."},"lag":"Same week to 8 weeks","regions":["north-america"],"sectors":["beef","dairy","feed","crops"],"confidence":80},{"id":"mla-bom-restocking","sourceId":"mla-api","from":"Australian saleyard prices, slaughter, and cattle indicators","driver":{"en":"Restocking appetite and saleyard competition","es":"Apetito de reposición y competencia en remates","pt":"Apetite de reposição e competição nos leilões"},"affects":{"en":"Store cattle prices, breeder retention, and lot-feeder entry weights","es":"Precios de reposición, retención de madres y entrada a feedlot","pt":"Preços de reposição, retenção de matrizes e entrada em confinamento"},"producerDecision":{"en":"Tie rainfall recovery to whether paying up for replacement cattle makes sense.","es":"Conectar recuperación de lluvias con el precio razonable de reposición.","pt":"Conectar recuperação das chuvas ao preço razoável de reposição."},"lag":"0-3 weeks","regions":["oceania"],"sectors":["beef","feed"],"confidence":86},{"id":"eu-milk-margin-cull","sourceId":"eu-milk","from":"Raw milk, butter, SMP, whey prices","driver":{"en":"Milk margin and cull cow flow","es":"Margen lechero y flujo de vacas de descarte","pt":"Margem do leite e fluxo de vacas de descarte"},"affects":{"en":"Cull timing, replacement rate, feed spend, and beef supply from dairy","es":"Descarte, reposición, gasto en alimento y carne de vaca lechera","pt":"Descarte, reposição, gasto com ração e carne de origem leiteira"},"producerDecision":{"en":"Update cull and feed decisions when milk solids stop paying for extra ration.","es":"Actualizar descarte y dieta cuando los sólidos no pagan la ración extra.","pt":"Atualizar descarte e dieta quando sólidos não pagam a ração extra."},"lag":"1-4 weeks","regions":["europe"],"sectors":["dairy","feed"],"confidence":82},{"id":"eurostat-herd-to-cull-replacement","sourceId":"eurostat-agri","from":"EU bovine herd, cow inventory, and milk collection series","driver":{"en":"European herd structure and milk supply pressure","es":"Estructura del rodeo europeo y presion de oferta de leche","pt":"Estrutura do rebanho europeu e pressao de oferta de leite"},"affects":{"en":"Replacement appetite, calf crop, cull flow, dairy-beef supply, and long-cycle price floor","es":"Reposicion, terneros, descarte, carne de origen lechero y piso de precio de ciclo largo","pt":"Reposicao, bezerros, descarte, carne de origem leiteira e piso de preco de ciclo longo"},"producerDecision":{"en":"Use structural herd and milk-collection data before changing cull timing, replacement buying, or retained-weight plans.","es":"Usar datos estructurales de rodeo y acopio antes de cambiar descarte, reposicion o planes de kilos retenidos.","pt":"Usar dados estruturais de rebanho e captacao antes de mudar descarte, reposicao ou planos de peso retido."},"lag":"1 quarter to 3 years","regions":["europe"],"sectors":["beef","dairy","feed"],"confidence":80},{"id":"wahis-disease-to-movement","sourceId":"woah-wahis","from":"Official disease alerts and animal health reports","driver":{"en":"Disease event and movement restriction risk","es":"Evento sanitario y riesgo de restricción de movimiento","pt":"Evento sanitário e risco de restrição de movimentação"},"affects":{"en":"Border access, auction flow, mortality risk, and buyer confidence","es":"Acceso fronterizo, flujo de remates, mortalidad y confianza del comprador","pt":"Acesso de fronteira, fluxo de leilões, mortalidade e confiança do comprador"},"producerDecision":{"en":"Check health status before moving cattle, buying replacements, or signing export-linked volume.","es":"Verificar sanidad antes de mover ganado, comprar reposición o firmar exportación.","pt":"Verificar sanidade antes de mover gado, comprar reposição ou assinar exportação."},"lag":"Same day to 2 weeks","regions":["north-america","latin-america","oceania","europe","africa-asia"],"sectors":["animal-health","beef","dairy"],"confidence":89},{"id":"aphis-h5n1-to-dairy-movement","sourceId":"usda-aphis","from":"H5N1 livestock guidance, dairy cattle movement updates, and biosecurity notices","driver":{"en":"Dairy cattle movement and biosecurity risk","es":"Riesgo de movimiento y bioseguridad en ganado lechero","pt":"Risco de movimentação e biossegurança em gado leiteiro"},"affects":{"en":"Interstate movement, sale timing, replacement buying, milk logistics, and cull-cow flow","es":"Movimiento interestatal, venta, reposición, logística de leche y flujo de descarte","pt":"Movimentação interestadual, venda, reposição, logística do leite e fluxo de descarte"},"producerDecision":{"en":"Check APHIS guidance before moving lactating dairy cattle, buying replacements, or changing biosecurity routines.","es":"Revisar la guía de APHIS antes de mover vacas lactantes, comprar reposición o cambiar bioseguridad.","pt":"Revisar a orientação da APHIS antes de mover vacas lactantes, comprar reposição ou mudar biossegurança."},"lag":"Same day to 2 weeks","regions":["north-america"],"sectors":["animal-health","dairy","beef"],"confidence":84},{"id":"feed-energy-to-breakeven","sourceId":"world-bank-pink-sheet","from":"Beef, energy, fertilizer, and feed commodity prices","driver":{"en":"Feed, fertilizer, freight, and pasture input cost","es":"Costo de alimento, fertilizante, flete e insumos de pasto","pt":"Custo de ração, fertilizante, frete e insumos de pasto"},"affects":{"en":"Backgrounding breakeven, finishing margin, hay cost, and stocking decision","es":"Punto de equilibrio, margen de engorde, heno y carga animal","pt":"Ponto de equilíbrio, margem de terminação, feno e lotação"},"producerDecision":{"en":"Reprice the next 50 lb or 25 kg before buying feed or delaying sales.","es":"Recalcular los próximos kilos antes de comprar alimento o demorar ventas.","pt":"Recalcular os próximos quilos antes de comprar ração ou atrasar venda."},"lag":"1-6 weeks","regions":["north-america","latin-america","oceania","europe","africa-asia"],"sectors":["feed","beef","dairy"],"confidence":80},{"id":"fao-food-price-to-farm-margin","sourceId":"fao-food-price","from":"FAO meat, dairy, cereal, oil, sugar, and headline food price indices","driver":{"en":"Global food, feed, and protein price pressure","es":"Presión global de alimentos, ración y proteína","pt":"Pressão global de alimentos, ração e proteína"},"affects":{"en":"Export pull, milk margin, ration cost, crop rotation, food inflation, and local bid resilience","es":"Exportación, margen lechero, costo de dieta, rotación, inflación alimentaria y resistencia del precio local","pt":"Exportação, margem do leite, custo de dieta, rotação, inflação de alimentos e resistência do preço local"},"producerDecision":{"en":"Compare global food index direction with local cattle, milk, feed, and crop bids before treating a market move as local noise.","es":"Comparar dirección de índices globales con ganado, leche, alimento y cultivos locales antes de llamar ruido local al movimiento.","pt":"Comparar direção dos índices globais com gado, leite, ração e culturas locais antes de chamar o movimento de ruído local."},"lag":"1-12 months","regions":["north-america","latin-america","oceania","europe","africa-asia"],"sectors":["beef","dairy","feed","crops"],"confidence":82},{"id":"wasde-feed-balance-to-cattle-margin","sourceId":"usda-wasde","from":"Corn, soybean meal, hay, and dairy/feed balance sheets","driver":{"en":"Forward feed availability and ration cost","es":"Disponibilidad futura de alimento y costo de ración","pt":"Disponibilidade futura de ração e custo de trato"},"affects":{"en":"Backgrounding margin, finishing days, milk-feed spread, and crop planting incentives","es":"Margen de recría, días de engorde, leche-alimento e incentivos de siembra","pt":"Margem de recria, dias de terminação, leite-ração e incentivo de plantio"},"producerDecision":{"en":"Use monthly balance-sheet revisions to decide whether to lock feed, sell lighter, or carry cattle longer.","es":"Usar revisiones mensuales para fijar alimento, vender más liviano o retener ganado.","pt":"Usar revisões mensais para travar ração, vender mais leve ou reter gado."},"lag":"1-12 months","regions":["north-america","latin-america","oceania","europe","africa-asia"],"sectors":["feed","crops","beef","dairy"],"confidence":87},{"id":"ers-feed-grains-to-breakeven","sourceId":"usda-ers-feed-grains","from":"Feed grain supply, animal unit indexes, rail rates, and grain shipments","driver":{"en":"Feed breakeven and logistics pressure","es":"Punto de equilibrio y presión logística","pt":"Ponto de equilíbrio e pressão logística"},"affects":{"en":"Feeder bids, ration substitutions, hay demand, and feedlot entry weights","es":"Ofertas de invernada, sustitución de dieta, heno y peso de entrada","pt":"Ofertas de recria, substituição de dieta, feno e peso de entrada"},"producerDecision":{"en":"Compare feed grain and transport trends before buying feeders or delaying sale dates.","es":"Comparar granos y transporte antes de comprar invernada o demorar ventas.","pt":"Comparar grãos e transporte antes de comprar recria ou atrasar venda."},"lag":"2-8 weeks","regions":["north-america"],"sectors":["feed","crops","beef","dairy"],"confidence":84},{"id":"export-sales-to-buyer-pull","sourceId":"usda-esr","from":"Weekly export commitments and shipments by commodity and destination","driver":{"en":"Export buyer pull before customs data confirms it","es":"Demanda exportadora antes de que aduanas la confirme","pt":"Demanda exportadora antes de a alfândega confirmar"},"affects":{"en":"Beef cutout support, grain basis, local processor bids, and feed ingredient demand","es":"Carne en caja, base de granos, frigoríficos y demanda de insumos","pt":"Atacado de carne, base de grãos, frigoríficos e demanda de insumos"},"producerDecision":{"en":"Watch export-sales acceleration as an early signal for stronger cash bids or tighter feed.","es":"Mirar aceleración exportadora como señal temprana de oferta o alimento más ajustado.","pt":"Observar aceleração exportadora como sinal inicial de preço ou ração mais apertada."},"lag":"1-5 weeks","regions":["north-america","latin-america","africa-asia"],"sectors":["beef","feed","crops","dairy"],"confidence":83},{"id":"gain-policy-to-market-access","sourceId":"usda-gain","from":"Country attaché reports on policy, imports, production, and sanitary rules","driver":{"en":"Policy and market-access change before official statistics update","es":"Cambio de política y acceso antes del dato oficial","pt":"Mudança de política e acesso antes do dado oficial"},"affects":{"en":"Export eligibility, buyer demand, import competition, and regional price ceilings","es":"Elegibilidad exportadora, demanda, competencia importada y techo de precios","pt":"Elegibilidade exportadora, demanda, concorrência importada e teto de preço"},"producerDecision":{"en":"Treat policy reports as a forward signal for buyer access, not as background reading.","es":"Tratar reportes de política como señal futura de acceso, no lectura de fondo.","pt":"Tratar relatórios de política como sinal futuro de acesso, não leitura de fundo."},"lag":"Same day to 3 months","regions":["north-america","latin-america","oceania","europe","africa-asia"],"sectors":["beef","dairy","feed","crops","animal-health"],"confidence":79},{"id":"comtrade-to-structural-demand","sourceId":"un-comtrade","from":"Partner trade flows by product code and reporting country","driver":{"en":"Structural import demand and destination concentration","es":"Demanda importadora estructural y concentración de destino","pt":"Demanda importadora estrutural e concentração de destino"},"affects":{"en":"Export exposure, currency sensitivity, processor competition, and crop-feed tradeoffs","es":"Exposición exportadora, sensibilidad cambiaria, frigoríficos y cultivos-alimento","pt":"Exposição exportadora, sensibilidade cambial, frigoríficos e culturas-ração"},"producerDecision":{"en":"Know when local bids depend on one buyer region before committing cattle or grain inventory.","es":"Saber si el precio local depende de una región compradora antes de vender.","pt":"Saber se o preço local depende de uma região compradora antes de vender."},"lag":"1-12 months","regions":["north-america","latin-america","oceania","europe","africa-asia"],"sectors":["beef","dairy","feed","crops"],"confidence":76},{"id":"oecd-fao-to-cycle-planning","sourceId":"oecd-fao-outlook","from":"Ten-year meat, dairy, grain, and oilseed projections","driver":{"en":"Long-cycle demand, productivity, and price direction","es":"Demanda, productividad y precio de ciclo largo","pt":"Demanda, produtividade e preço de ciclo longo"},"affects":{"en":"Breeding retention, dairy expansion, crop rotation, and capital spending","es":"Retención de vientres, expansión lechera, rotación y capital","pt":"Retenção de matrizes, expansão leiteira, rotação e capital"},"producerDecision":{"en":"Use decade outlooks for structural bets; use daily dashboards for timing.","es":"Usar perspectivas largas para estructura; el tablero diario para timing.","pt":"Usar perspectivas longas para estrutura; painel diário para timing."},"lag":"1-10 years","regions":["north-america","latin-america","oceania","europe","africa-asia"],"sectors":["beef","dairy","feed","crops"],"confidence":72},{"id":"copernicus-soil-to-yield","sourceId":"copernicus-cds","from":"Soil moisture, reanalysis weather, drought, and vegetation stress","driver":{"en":"Pasture and crop yield stress before harvest or sale runs","es":"Estrés de pasto y rendimiento antes de cosecha o remate","pt":"Estresse de pasto e rendimento antes de colheita ou leilão"},"affects":{"en":"Forage carrying days, crop yield, feed price, stocking rate, and water planning","es":"Días de pasto, rendimiento, precio de alimento, carga animal y agua","pt":"Dias de pasto, rendimento, preço de ração, lotação e água"},"producerDecision":{"en":"Adjust stocking, hay purchases, crop marketing, and irrigation before official production reports.","es":"Ajustar carga, heno, venta de cultivo e riego antes del dato oficial.","pt":"Ajustar lotação, feno, venda de safra e irrigação antes do dado oficial."},"lag":"2 weeks to 6 months","regions":["north-america","latin-america","oceania","europe","africa-asia"],"sectors":["feed","crops","beef","dairy"],"confidence":82},{"id":"water-to-stocking-irrigation","sourceId":"usgs-water","from":"Streamflow, reservoir, groundwater, and water-quality series","driver":{"en":"Water availability for pasture, irrigation, feed crops, and cattle","es":"Disponibilidad de agua para pasto, riego, cultivos y ganado","pt":"Disponibilidade de água para pasto, irrigação, culturas e gado"},"affects":{"en":"Stocking rate, crop yield, hay demand, heat-stress mitigation, and forced sale risk","es":"Carga animal, rendimiento, heno, mitigación de calor y venta forzada","pt":"Lotação, rendimento, feno, mitigação de calor e venda forçada"},"producerDecision":{"en":"Tie stocking and planting decisions to measured water, not only rainfall.","es":"Conectar carga y siembra con agua medida, no solo lluvia.","pt":"Ligar lotação e plantio à água medida, não só chuva."},"lag":"0-12 weeks","regions":["north-america"],"sectors":["feed","crops","beef","dairy"],"confidence":81},{"id":"macro-fx-to-export-bids","sourceId":"imf-ifs","from":"Exchange rates, rates, inflation, and country macro series","driver":{"en":"Currency translation and capital-cost pressure","es":"Traducción cambiaria y costo de capital","pt":"Tradução cambial e custo de capital"},"affects":{"en":"Export bids, imported feed cost, fertilizer cost, replacement finance, and dairy margins","es":"Ofertas exportadoras, alimento importado, fertilizante, crédito y leche","pt":"Ofertas exportadoras, ração importada, fertilizante, crédito e leite"},"producerDecision":{"en":"Price cattle, milk, feed, and crops in both local and export-linked terms.","es":"Valuar ganado, leche, alimento y cultivos en moneda local y exportación.","pt":"Precificar gado, leite, ração e culturas em moeda local e exportação."},"lag":"Same day to 6 months","regions":["north-america","latin-america","oceania","europe","africa-asia"],"sectors":["beef","dairy","feed","crops"],"confidence":78},{"id":"brazil-weather-fx-to-pasture","sourceId":"brazil-inmet","from":"Brazil station weather, rainfall, heat, and agrometeorology","driver":{"en":"State-level pasture recovery and heat stress","es":"Recuperación de pasto y estrés de calor por estado","pt":"Recuperação de pasto e estresse térmico por estado"},"affects":{"en":"Arroba timing, mineral and supplement use, crop yield, and local freight pressure","es":"Timing de venta, mineral, suplemento, rendimiento y flete local","pt":"Timing da arroba, mineral, suplemento, produtividade e frete local"},"producerDecision":{"en":"Move state-level sale plans when rainfall recovery or heat stress diverges from the national story.","es":"Mover ventas por estado cuando lluvia o calor se separan del promedio nacional.","pt":"Mover vendas por estado quando chuva ou calor se afastam da média nacional."},"lag":"0-8 weeks","regions":["latin-america"],"sectors":["beef","dairy","feed","crops"],"confidence":84},{"id":"agrostat-comex-to-brazil-export","sourceId":"brazil-mapa-agrostat","from":"Brazil agribusiness exports by commodity, destination, and state","driver":{"en":"Export channel strength and destination concentration","es":"Fuerza exportadora y concentración de destino","pt":"Força exportadora e concentração de destino"},"affects":{"en":"Processor bids, crop storage, freight, and local basis in export states","es":"Ofertas frigoríficas, almacenaje, flete y base local","pt":"Ofertas frigoríficas, armazenagem, frete e base local"},"producerDecision":{"en":"Watch destination concentration before assuming export-linked bids will hold.","es":"Mirar concentración de destino antes de asumir oferta exportadora estable.","pt":"Observar concentração de destino antes de assumir preço exportador estável."},"lag":"2-8 weeks","regions":["latin-america"],"sectors":["beef","dairy","feed","crops"],"confidence":80},{"id":"comex-stat-to-brazil-export-flow","sourceId":"comex-stat","from":"Brazil Comex Stat monthly export value, volume, destination, and state flows","driver":{"en":"Official customs flow confirms export pull","es":"El flujo aduanero oficial confirma la fuerza exportadora","pt":"Fluxo aduaneiro oficial confirma a força exportadora"},"affects":{"en":"Processor bids, destination risk, cattle basis, corn and soybean feed basis, and export-state freight","es":"Ofertas frigoríficas, riesgo de destino, base ganadera, base de maíz y soja, y flete exportador","pt":"Preços de frigorífico, risco de destino, base do boi, base de milho e soja, e frete exportador"},"producerDecision":{"en":"Read export value, volume, buyer concentration, and state share before assuming local cattle bids or feed basis will hold.","es":"Leer valor, volumen, concentración de compradores y participación estatal antes de asumir precio local o base de alimento estable.","pt":"Ler valor, volume, concentração de compradores e participação estadual antes de assumir preço local ou base de ração estável."},"lag":"2-12 weeks","regions":["latin-america"],"sectors":["beef","feed","crops"],"confidence":84},{"id":"conab-category-causal-edge","sourceId":"conab","from":"Brazil CONAB crop supply, demand, stock, production, and export balance","driver":{"en":"Crop balance changes feed-cost cover","es":"El balance agrícola cambia cobertura de alimento","pt":"Balanço agrícola muda cobertura de ração"},"affects":{"en":"Corn and soybean meal basis, supplement cost, crop selling, feedlot breakeven, pasture substitution, and retained weight","es":"Base de maíz y harina de soja, costo de suplemento, venta agrícola, equilibrio de corral, sustitución de pasto y kilos retenidos","pt":"Base de milho e farelo, custo de suplemento, venda agrícola, ponto de equilíbrio, substituição de pasto e peso retido"},"producerDecision":{"en":"Use CONAB stock-to-use, production, and export revisions before holding cattle for gain or leaving feed coverage open.","es":"Usar stock/uso, producción y exportaciones de CONAB antes de retener ganado o dejar alimento sin cobertura.","pt":"Usar estoque/uso, produção e exportações da CONAB antes de reter gado ou deixar ração descoberta."},"lag":"1 month to 18 months","regions":["latin-america"],"sectors":["feed","crops","beef","dairy"],"confidence":83},{"id":"faostat-category-causal-edge","sourceId":"faostat","from":"FAOSTAT livestock, milk, beef, and feed-crop production baselines","driver":{"en":"Structural production capacity sets the slow market baseline","es":"La capacidad productiva estructural fija la base lenta del mercado","pt":"Capacidade produtiva estrutural define a base lenta do mercado"},"affects":{"en":"Long-cycle cattle supply, milk-feed exposure, feed-crop availability, replacement value, and regional basis","es":"Oferta ganadera de ciclo largo, exposición leche-alimento, disponibilidad de cultivos, reposición y base regional","pt":"Oferta pecuária de ciclo longo, exposição leite-ração, disponibilidade de culturas, reposição e base regional"},"producerDecision":{"en":"Use the structural baseline before treating a local price, feed, or replacement move as only short-term noise.","es":"Usar la base estructural antes de tratar un movimiento local de precio, alimento o reposición como ruido corto.","pt":"Usar a base estrutural antes de tratar movimento local de preço, ração ou reposição como ruído curto."},"lag":"3 months to 3 years","regions":["north-america","latin-america","oceania","europe","africa-asia"],"sectors":["beef","dairy","feed","crops"],"confidence":78},{"id":"fews-market-food-security-to-feed-risk","sourceId":"fews-net","from":"FEWS NET market prices, cross-border trade, and food-security pressure","driver":{"en":"Staple-price stress and livelihood pressure","es":"Presion de precios basicos y medios de vida","pt":"Pressao de precos basicos e meios de vida"},"affects":{"en":"Feed substitution, household selling pressure, pasture movement, crop demand, and regional livestock bids","es":"Sustitucion de alimento, presion de venta familiar, movimiento por pasto, demanda agricola y ofertas ganaderas regionales","pt":"Substituicao de racao, pressao de venda familiar, movimento por pasto, demanda agricola e precos pecuarios regionais"},"producerDecision":{"en":"Use FEWS price and food-security stress before treating a local cattle or feed move as only a local market quote.","es":"Usar precios y estres alimentario de FEWS antes de tratar un movimiento local de ganado o alimento como solo una cotizacion local.","pt":"Usar precos e estresse alimentar do FEWS antes de tratar um movimento local de gado ou racao como apenas cotacao local."},"lag":"1 month to 9 months","regions":["latin-america","africa-asia"],"sectors":["feed","crops","beef","dairy"],"confidence":80},{"id":"wfp-vam-food-price-to-feed-risk","sourceId":"wfp-vam","from":"WFP VAM observed food prices across physical markets","driver":{"en":"Local staple-price pressure before livestock markets fully adjust","es":"Presion local de precios basicos antes del ajuste ganadero","pt":"Pressao local de precos basicos antes do ajuste pecuario"},"affects":{"en":"Feed substitution, household cash pressure, forced-sale risk, market depth, ration cost, and crop demand","es":"Sustitucion de alimento, caja familiar, venta forzada, profundidad de mercado, dieta y demanda agricola","pt":"Substituicao de racao, caixa familiar, venda forcada, profundidade de mercado, dieta e demanda agricola"},"producerDecision":{"en":"Read WFP local prices beside cattle bids, pasture, and feed quotes before deciding whether to hold, sell, or buy supplement.","es":"Leer precios locales WFP junto a ofertas ganaderas, pasto y alimento antes de decidir retener, vender o comprar suplemento.","pt":"Ler precos locais WFP junto a precos do gado, pasto e racao antes de decidir reter, vender ou comprar suplemento."},"lag":"2 weeks to 6 months","regions":["latin-america","africa-asia"],"sectors":["feed","crops","beef","dairy"],"confidence":82},{"id":"eu-agri-to-country-basis","sourceId":"eu-agri-food-data","from":"EU country-level meat, dairy, crop, price, and production data","driver":{"en":"Member-state basis and margin divergence","es":"Divergencia de base y margen por país","pt":"Divergência de base e margem por país"},"affects":{"en":"Cull flow, beef imports, milk margin, feed cost, and cross-border movement","es":"Descarte, importación de carne, margen lechero, alimento y movimiento","pt":"Descarte, importação de carne, margem do leite, ração e movimento"},"producerDecision":{"en":"Use country-level differences before selling into a weak local market.","es":"Usar diferencias por país antes de vender en mercado local débil.","pt":"Usar diferenças por país antes de vender em mercado local fraco."},"lag":"1-8 weeks","regions":["europe"],"sectors":["beef","dairy","feed","crops"],"confidence":81},{"id":"gdt-to-dairy-cull","sourceId":"gdt-events","from":"Global dairy auction product prices and demand shifts","driver":{"en":"Milk-solids export demand and dairy margin pressure","es":"Demanda exportadora de sólidos y presión de margen lechero","pt":"Demanda exportadora de sólidos e pressão na margem do leite"},"affects":{"en":"Dairy ration spend, cull cow flow, beef supply from dairy, and replacement appetite","es":"Dieta lechera, descarte, oferta de carne lechera y reposición","pt":"Dieta leiteira, descarte, oferta de carne leiteira e reposição"},"producerDecision":{"en":"Reprice dairy feed and cull decisions after auction moves, not only after monthly milk checks.","es":"Recalcular dieta y descarte tras subastas, no solo con pago mensual.","pt":"Recalcular dieta e descarte após leilões, não só no pagamento mensal."},"lag":"0-6 weeks","regions":["oceania","europe","africa-asia","latin-america"],"sectors":["dairy","feed","beef"],"confidence":79},{"id":"bcb-fx-to-export-inputs","sourceId":"brazil-bcb-sgs","from":"Brazil USD/BRL exchange rate, credit, inflation, and macro series","driver":{"en":"Currency pressure on export bids and imported inputs","es":"Presión cambiaria sobre exportación e insumos importados","pt":"Pressão cambial em exportação e insumos importados"},"affects":{"en":"Arroba bids, feed ingredients, fertilizer, diesel, machinery, and replacement finance","es":"Ofertas de ganado, alimento, fertilizante, diésel, maquinaria y crédito","pt":"Preço do boi, ração, fertilizante, diesel, máquinas e crédito"},"producerDecision":{"en":"Price cattle, feed, mineral, fertilizer, and fuel in local and dollar-linked terms before changing sale timing.","es":"Valuar ganado, alimento, mineral, fertilizante y combustible en moneda local y dólar antes de cambiar ventas.","pt":"Precificar gado, ração, mineral, fertilizante e combustível em moeda local e dólar antes de mudar vendas."},"lag":"Same day to 4 weeks","regions":["latin-america"],"sectors":["beef","dairy","feed","crops"],"confidence":82},{"id":"ibge-herd-to-regional-supply","sourceId":"ibge-sidra","from":"Brazil cattle herd by state, production system, and annual survey","driver":{"en":"State herd structure and regional supply concentration","es":"Estructura del hato estatal y concentración de oferta","pt":"Estrutura do rebanho estadual e concentração de oferta"},"affects":{"en":"Local basis, pasture pressure, freight, export corridor load, and replacement buying","es":"Base local, presión de pasto, flete, corredor exportador y reposición","pt":"Base local, pressão de pasto, frete, corredor exportador e reposição"},"producerDecision":{"en":"Compare local herd concentration with rain, freight, and export demand before deciding whether to hold or sell.","es":"Comparar concentración del hato con lluvia, flete y exportación antes de retener o vender.","pt":"Comparar concentração do rebanho com chuva, frete e exportação antes de reter ou vender."},"lag":"1 quarter to 2 years","regions":["latin-america"],"sectors":["beef","feed","crops"],"confidence":84},{"id":"ibge-milk-to-dairy-beef-supply","sourceId":"ibge-sidra","from":"Brazil milk production by state and annual dairy survey","driver":{"en":"Regional dairy margin and dairy-beef supply pressure","es":"Margen lechero regional y presión de carne lechera","pt":"Margem leiteira regional e pressão de carne leiteira"},"affects":{"en":"Cull cow flow, replacement appetite, dairy ration demand, and beef supply from dairy regions","es":"Descarte, reposición, demanda de ración lechera y oferta de carne lechera","pt":"Descarte, reposição, demanda de ração leiteira e oferta de carne leiteira"},"producerDecision":{"en":"Watch milk regions with feed and weather stress because cull supply can hit beef bids before monthly price reports feel stale.","es":"Vigilar regiones lecheras con estrés de alimento y clima porque el descarte puede golpear precios antes del dato mensual.","pt":"Vigiar regiões leiteiras com estresse de ração e clima porque descarte pode pesar no boi antes do dado mensal."},"lag":"1 month to 1 year","regions":["latin-america"],"sectors":["dairy","beef","feed"],"confidence":81},{"id":"ibge-slaughter-to-brazil-supply","sourceId":"ibge-sidra","from":"Brazil quarterly cattle slaughter, carcass output, and carcass weight from IBGE SIDRA","driver":{"en":"Official slaughter pace changes supply pressure","es":"El ritmo oficial de faena cambia presión de oferta","pt":"Ritmo oficial de abate muda pressão de oferta"},"affects":{"en":"Processor leverage, local cattle basis, finished-cattle sale windows, carcass supply, and replacement appetite","es":"Poder frigorífico, base local, ventanas de venta, oferta de carcasa y reposición","pt":"Poder de frigorífico, base local, janela de venda, oferta de carcaça e reposição"},"producerDecision":{"en":"Read slaughter pace with local bids, export pull, feed cost, and pasture days before delaying sales.","es":"Leer faena con precio local, exportación, alimento y días de pasto antes de demorar ventas.","pt":"Ler abate com preço local, exportação, ração e dias de pasto antes de atrasar vendas."},"lag":"Same quarter to 12 weeks","regions":["latin-america"],"sectors":["beef","dairy","feed"],"confidence":84},{"id":"ibge-crop-production-to-feed-basis","sourceId":"ibge-sidra","from":"Brazil state corn and soybean production from IBGE SIDRA","driver":{"en":"State crop structure changes feed basis","es":"La estructura agrícola estatal cambia la base de alimento","pt":"Estrutura agrícola estadual muda a base de ração"},"affects":{"en":"Corn and soybean meal basis, delivered feed cost, freight, storage, crop selling, and cattle gain economics","es":"Base de maíz y harina de soja, alimento entregado, flete, almacenaje, venta agrícola y ganancia ganadera","pt":"Base de milho e farelo, custo entregue, frete, armazenagem, venda agrícola e ganho do gado"},"producerDecision":{"en":"Use state crop concentration with CONAB and Comex Stat before changing feed coverage or retained-weight plans.","es":"Usar concentración estatal con CONAB y Comex Stat antes de cambiar cobertura de alimento o kilos retenidos.","pt":"Usar concentração estadual com CONAB e Comex Stat antes de mudar cobertura de ração ou peso retido."},"lag":"1 month to 18 months","regions":["latin-america"],"sectors":["feed","crops","beef","dairy"],"confidence":82},{"id":"mexico-siap-livestock-to-border-supply","sourceId":"mexico-siap","from":"Mexico SIAP bovine meat, live cattle, slaughter, and state production data","driver":{"en":"Mexico cattle supply changes border and regional basis","es":"La oferta bovina de México cambia base regional y frontera","pt":"Oferta bovina do México muda base regional e fronteira"},"affects":{"en":"Northern Mexico feeder flow, slaughter availability, replacement demand, border timing, and local cattle bids","es":"Flujo de becerros del norte, disponibilidad de faena, reposición, frontera y ofertas locales","pt":"Fluxo de bezerros do norte, disponibilidade de abate, reposição, fronteira e preços locais"},"producerDecision":{"en":"Read Mexico supply with drought, feed imports, border movement, and U.S. feeder bids before changing sale or retention timing.","es":"Leer oferta mexicana con sequía, alimento importado, frontera y precios de invernada de EE.UU. antes de vender o retener.","pt":"Ler oferta mexicana com seca, ração importada, fronteira e preços de recria dos EUA antes de vender ou reter."},"lag":"1 quarter to 18 months","regions":["latin-america","north-america"],"sectors":["beef","feed","animal-health"],"confidence":83},{"id":"mexico-siap-milk-to-dairy-beef-supply","sourceId":"mexico-siap","from":"Mexico SIAP bovine milk production and regional dairy output","driver":{"en":"Mexico dairy output changes cull and feed pressure","es":"La producción lechera mexicana cambia descarte y presión de alimento","pt":"Produção leiteira mexicana muda descarte e pressão de ração"},"affects":{"en":"Dairy feed demand, cull cow flow, replacement appetite, milk margin, and beef supply from dairy regions","es":"Demanda de alimento lechero, descarte, reposición, margen de leche y oferta de carne lechera","pt":"Demanda de ração leiteira, descarte, reposição, margem do leite e carne de origem leiteira"},"producerDecision":{"en":"Watch milk regions with feed and heat stress because dairy margin can become cull-cow supply before beef headlines adjust.","es":"Vigilar regiones lecheras con estrés de alimento y calor porque el margen lechero puede volverse descarte antes del titular de carne.","pt":"Vigiar regiões leiteiras com estresse de ração e calor porque margem do leite pode virar descarte antes da manchete de carne."},"lag":"1 month to 1 year","regions":["latin-america","north-america"],"sectors":["dairy","beef","feed"],"confidence":80},{"id":"mexico-siap-northern-supply-to-feed-imports","sourceId":"mexico-siap","from":"Northern Mexico share of live cattle output and cattle weight structure","driver":{"en":"Northern supply concentration meets imported feed and border demand","es":"La concentración del norte cruza alimento importado y demanda fronteriza","pt":"Concentração do norte cruza ração importada e demanda de fronteira"},"affects":{"en":"Feed replacement cost, feeder cattle flow, drought exposure, transport, sale timing, and retained-weight economics","es":"Costo de reposición de alimento, flujo de becerros, sequía, transporte, venta y kilos retenidos","pt":"Custo de reposição de ração, fluxo de bezerros, seca, transporte, venda e peso retido"},"producerDecision":{"en":"Use northern Mexico concentration with corn import cost, drought forecasts, and cross-border basis before holding cattle for extra weight.","es":"Usar concentración del norte con costo de maíz importado, sequía y base fronteriza antes de retener ganado por más peso.","pt":"Usar concentração do norte com custo de milho importado, seca e base de fronteira antes de reter gado por mais peso."},"lag":"Same month to 12 months","regions":["latin-america","north-america"],"sectors":["beef","feed","crops"],"confidence":81},{"id":"world-bank-wdi-to-structural-supply","sourceId":"world-bank-wdi","from":"Country livestock, crop, fertilizer, land, food, and macro indicators","driver":{"en":"Structural production capacity and input exposure","es":"Capacidad productiva estructural y exposición a insumos","pt":"Capacidade produtiva estrutural e exposição a insumos"},"affects":{"en":"Long-cycle livestock supply, crop-feed availability, fertilizer sensitivity, and import affordability","es":"Oferta ganadera de ciclo largo, alimento agrícola, sensibilidad a fertilizante y poder de importación","pt":"Oferta pecuária de ciclo longo, disponibilidade de ração agrícola, fertilizante e poder de importação"},"producerDecision":{"en":"Use country structural indicators as the baseline before overreacting to a weekly market headline.","es":"Usar indicadores estructurales por país como base antes de reaccionar a un titular semanal.","pt":"Usar indicadores estruturais por país como base antes de reagir a uma manchete semanal."},"lag":"1-10 years","regions":["north-america","latin-america","oceania","europe","africa-asia"],"sectors":["beef","dairy","feed","crops"],"confidence":74},{"id":"bls-inputs-to-feed-margin","sourceId":"bls-ag-inputs","from":"Farm products, livestock, processed feeds, and animal food manufacturing price indexes","driver":{"en":"Farm and feed input inflation","es":"Inflación de insumos agrícolas y alimento","pt":"Inflação de insumos agrícolas e ração"},"affects":{"en":"Feed breakeven, hay substitution, ration cost, feeder-cattle bids, and dairy margin","es":"Punto de equilibrio, sustitución de heno, dieta, invernada y margen lechero","pt":"Ponto de equilíbrio, substituição de feno, dieta, recria e margem do leite"},"producerDecision":{"en":"Reprice the next gain period when feed-linked producer prices move faster than cattle value.","es":"Recalcular el próximo período de ganancia cuando precios de alimento se mueven más rápido que el ganado.","pt":"Recalcular o próximo período de ganho quando preços ligados à ração se movem mais rápido que o gado."},"lag":"Same month to 3 months","regions":["north-america"],"sectors":["beef","dairy","feed","crops"],"confidence":78},{"id":"eia-diesel-to-freight-feed-cost","sourceId":"eia-fuel","from":"Weekly U.S. No. 2 diesel retail price","driver":{"en":"Freight and feed-delivery cost pressure","es":"Presión de flete y entrega de alimento","pt":"Pressão de frete e entrega de ração"},"affects":{"en":"Hay hauling, feed delivery, yardage, crop inputs, feeder bids, and sale timing","es":"Transporte de heno, entrega de alimento, corral, insumos, invernada y ventas","pt":"Frete de feno, entrega de ração, diária, insumos, recria e venda"},"producerDecision":{"en":"Reprice delivered feed, hay, and cattle hauling before deciding whether extra weight still pays.","es":"Recalcular alimento entregado, heno y flete de ganado antes de decidir si más kilos pagan.","pt":"Recalcular ração entregue, feno e frete do gado antes de decidir se mais peso paga."},"lag":"Same week to 8 weeks","regions":["north-america"],"sectors":["beef","dairy","feed","crops"],"confidence":80},{"id":"gdelt-news-to-market-event-risk","sourceId":"gdelt-global-news","from":"Global public news mentions of livestock, feed, dairy, crops, disease, fuel, trade, and policy shocks","driver":{"en":"Early event awareness before official reports update","es":"Conciencia temprana de eventos antes de reportes oficiales","pt":"Sinal precoce de eventos antes dos relatórios oficiais"},"affects":{"en":"Buyer access, disease movement risk, export demand, feed input cost, weather pressure, and local sale timing","es":"Acceso de compradores, riesgo sanitario, exportación, insumos de alimento, clima y ventas locales","pt":"Acesso de compradores, risco sanitário, exportação, insumos de ração, clima e venda local"},"producerDecision":{"en":"Use public event signals as watch items, then confirm with official data before changing cattle, milk, feed, or crop commitments.","es":"Usar eventos públicos como vigilancia y confirmar con datos oficiales antes de cambiar ganado, leche, alimento o cultivos.","pt":"Usar eventos públicos como monitoramento e confirmar com dados oficiais antes de mudar gado, leite, ração ou culturas."},"lag":"Same day to 8 weeks","regions":["north-america","latin-america","oceania","europe","africa-asia"],"sectors":["beef","dairy","feed","animal-health","crops"],"confidence":72},{"id":"usda-ers-category-causal-edge","sourceId":"usda-ers","from":"USDA ERS livestock data: slaughter, beef supply, retail and wholesale spread","driver":{"en":"Structural supply and herd-cycle pressure","es":"Oferta estructural y presión del ciclo ganadero","pt":"Oferta estrutural e pressão do ciclo pecuário"},"affects":{"en":"Replacement value, retained animals, slaughter availability, feed demand, and forward supply","es":"Reposición, animales retenidos, disponibilidad de faena, alimento y oferta futura","pt":"Reposição, animais retidos, disponibilidade de abate, ração e oferta futura"},"producerDecision":{"en":"Compare the herd-cycle signal with local feed and price conditions before expanding or liquidating.","es":"Comparar el ciclo ganadero con alimento y precio local antes de expandir o liquidar.","pt":"Comparar o ciclo pecuário com ração e preço local antes de expandir ou liquidar."},"lag":"1 month to 2 years","regions":["north-america"],"sectors":["beef","dairy"],"confidence":69},{"id":"google-news-rss-category-causal-edge","sourceId":"google-news-rss","from":"Google News public search RSS: public news search, regional livestock alerts, trade disruption, feed input shock","driver":{"en":"Regional event, policy, and local-market context","es":"Contexto regional, político y de mercado local","pt":"Contexto regional, político e de mercado local"},"affects":{"en":"Local prices, buyer behavior, public policy, logistics, input access, and producer confidence","es":"Precios locales, compradores, política, logística, insumos y confianza","pt":"Preços locais, compradores, política, logística, insumos e confiança"},"producerDecision":{"en":"Use the regional source to localize national headlines before changing the farm plan.","es":"Usar la fuente regional para localizar titulares nacionales antes de cambiar el plan.","pt":"Usar a fonte regional para localizar manchetes nacionais antes de mudar o plano."},"lag":"Same day to 1 year","regions":["north-america","latin-america","oceania","europe","africa-asia"],"sectors":["beef","dairy","feed","animal-health","crops"],"confidence":64},{"id":"usda-latest-releases-category-causal-edge","sourceId":"usda-latest-releases","from":"USDA latest releases RSS: USDA release, animal health, rancher policy, disaster program","driver":{"en":"Regional event, policy, and local-market context","es":"Contexto regional, político y de mercado local","pt":"Contexto regional, político e de mercado local"},"affects":{"en":"Local prices, buyer behavior, public policy, logistics, input access, and producer confidence","es":"Precios locales, compradores, política, logística, insumos y confianza","pt":"Preços locais, compradores, política, logística, insumos e confiança"},"producerDecision":{"en":"Use the regional source to localize national headlines before changing the farm plan.","es":"Usar la fuente regional para localizar titulares nacionales antes de cambiar el plan.","pt":"Usar a fonte regional para localizar manchetes nacionais antes de mudar o plano."},"lag":"Same day to 1 year","regions":["north-america"],"sectors":["beef","dairy","feed","animal-health","crops"],"confidence":69},{"id":"beefcentral-rss-category-causal-edge","sourceId":"beefcentral-rss","from":"Beef Central RSS: feedgrain, feeder cattle, live export, biosecurity","driver":{"en":"Regional event, policy, and local-market context","es":"Contexto regional, político y de mercado local","pt":"Contexto regional, político e de mercado local"},"affects":{"en":"Local prices, buyer behavior, public policy, logistics, input access, and producer confidence","es":"Precios locales, compradores, política, logística, insumos y confianza","pt":"Preços locais, compradores, política, logística, insumos e confiança"},"producerDecision":{"en":"Use the regional source to localize national headlines before changing the farm plan.","es":"Usar la fuente regional para localizar titulares nacionales antes de cambiar el plan.","pt":"Usar a fonte regional para localizar manchetes nacionais antes de mudar o plano."},"lag":"Same day to 1 year","regions":["oceania","africa-asia","north-america"],"sectors":["beef","feed","animal-health","crops"],"confidence":64},{"id":"farmprogress-rss-category-causal-edge","sourceId":"farmprogress-rss","from":"Farm Progress RSS: farm policy, crop weather, livestock markets, feed inputs","driver":{"en":"Regional event, policy, and local-market context","es":"Contexto regional, político y de mercado local","pt":"Contexto regional, político e de mercado local"},"affects":{"en":"Local prices, buyer behavior, public policy, logistics, input access, and producer confidence","es":"Precios locales, compradores, política, logística, insumos y confianza","pt":"Preços locais, compradores, política, logística, insumos e confiança"},"producerDecision":{"en":"Use the regional source to localize national headlines before changing the farm plan.","es":"Usar la fuente regional para localizar titulares nacionales antes de cambiar el plan.","pt":"Usar a fonte regional para localizar manchetes nacionais antes de mudar o plano."},"lag":"Same day to 1 year","regions":["north-america"],"sectors":["beef","dairy","feed","animal-health","crops"],"confidence":64},{"id":"cidrap-rss-category-causal-edge","sourceId":"cidrap-rss","from":"CIDRAP infectious disease RSS: H5N1, dairy cattle disease, biosecurity, zoonotic risk","driver":{"en":"Animal health, movement rules, and buyer-access risk","es":"Sanidad, reglas de movimiento y acceso de compradores","pt":"Sanidade, regras de movimentação e acesso de compradores"},"affects":{"en":"Movement friction, mortality risk, biosecurity spend, export eligibility, and buyer confidence","es":"Movimiento, mortalidad, bioseguridad, exportación y confianza del comprador","pt":"Movimentação, mortalidade, biossegurança, exportação e confiança do comprador"},"producerDecision":{"en":"Treat health status as market data before moving, buying, selling, or contracting livestock.","es":"Tratar sanidad como dato de mercado antes de mover, comprar, vender o contratar ganado.","pt":"Tratar sanidade como dado de mercado antes de mover, comprar, vender ou contratar gado."},"lag":"Same day to 12 weeks","regions":["north-america","latin-america","oceania","europe","africa-asia"],"sectors":["animal-health","dairy","beef"],"confidence":61},{"id":"brazil-mapa-rss-category-causal-edge","sourceId":"brazil-mapa-rss","from":"Brazil MAPA official RSS: Brazil livestock policy, sanitary notices, market access, feed crops","driver":{"en":"Regional event, policy, and local-market context","es":"Contexto regional, político y de mercado local","pt":"Contexto regional, político e de mercado local"},"affects":{"en":"Local prices, buyer behavior, public policy, logistics, input access, and producer confidence","es":"Precios locales, compradores, política, logística, insumos y confianza","pt":"Preços locais, compradores, política, logística, insumos e confiança"},"producerDecision":{"en":"Use the regional source to localize national headlines before changing the farm plan.","es":"Usar la fuente regional para localizar titulares nacionales antes de cambiar el plan.","pt":"Usar a fonte regional para localizar manchetes nacionais antes de mudar o plano."},"lag":"Same day to 1 year","regions":["latin-america"],"sectors":["beef","dairy","feed","animal-health","crops"],"confidence":69},{"id":"beefpoint-rss-category-causal-edge","sourceId":"beefpoint-rss","from":"BeefPoint RSS: boi gordo, feedlot, beef exports, processor demand","driver":{"en":"Regional event, policy, and local-market context","es":"Contexto regional, político y de mercado local","pt":"Contexto regional, político e de mercado local"},"affects":{"en":"Local prices, buyer behavior, public policy, logistics, input access, and producer confidence","es":"Precios locales, compradores, política, logística, insumos y confianza","pt":"Preços locais, compradores, política, logística, insumos e confiança"},"producerDecision":{"en":"Use the regional source to localize national headlines before changing the farm plan.","es":"Usar la fuente regional para localizar titulares nacionales antes de cambiar el plan.","pt":"Usar a fonte regional para localizar manchetes nacionais antes de mudar o plano."},"lag":"Same day to 1 year","regions":["latin-america"],"sectors":["beef","feed","crops"],"confidence":64},{"id":"ahdb-rss-category-causal-edge","sourceId":"ahdb-rss","from":"AHDB RSS: UK beef, dairy margin, feed prices, veterinary access","driver":{"en":"Regional event, policy, and local-market context","es":"Contexto regional, político y de mercado local","pt":"Contexto regional, político e de mercado local"},"affects":{"en":"Local prices, buyer behavior, public policy, logistics, input access, and producer confidence","es":"Precios locales, compradores, política, logística, insumos y confianza","pt":"Preços locais, compradores, política, logística, insumos e confiança"},"producerDecision":{"en":"Use the regional source to localize national headlines before changing the farm plan.","es":"Usar la fuente regional para localizar titulares nacionales antes de cambiar el plan.","pt":"Usar a fonte regional para localizar manchetes nacionais antes de mudar o plano."},"lag":"Same day to 1 year","regions":["europe"],"sectors":["beef","dairy","feed","crops"],"confidence":65},{"id":"agriland-rss-category-causal-edge","sourceId":"agriland-rss","from":"Agriland RSS: Irish cattle, milk, veterinary access, feed and forage","driver":{"en":"Regional event, policy, and local-market context","es":"Contexto regional, político y de mercado local","pt":"Contexto regional, político e de mercado local"},"affects":{"en":"Local prices, buyer behavior, public policy, logistics, input access, and producer confidence","es":"Precios locales, compradores, política, logística, insumos y confianza","pt":"Preços locais, compradores, política, logística, insumos e confiança"},"producerDecision":{"en":"Use the regional source to localize national headlines before changing the farm plan.","es":"Usar la fuente regional para localizar titulares nacionales antes de cambiar el plan.","pt":"Usar a fonte regional para localizar manchetes nacionais antes de mudar o plano."},"lag":"Same day to 1 year","regions":["europe"],"sectors":["beef","dairy","feed","animal-health","crops"],"confidence":64},{"id":"noaa-climate-category-causal-edge","sourceId":"noaa-climate","from":"NOAA climate and drought feeds: heat stress, rainfall, temperature anomaly","driver":{"en":"Weather, forage, heat, and water stress","es":"Clima, forraje, calor y estrés hídrico","pt":"Clima, pasto, calor e estresse hídrico"},"affects":{"en":"Pasture days, stocking rate, milk yield, crop yield, hay demand, and forced-sale risk","es":"Días de pasto, carga animal, leche, rendimiento, heno y venta forzada","pt":"Dias de pasto, lotação, leite, produtividade, feno e venda forçada"},"producerDecision":{"en":"Translate weather into forage days, water checks, feed coverage, and sale-or-hold thresholds.","es":"Convertir clima en días de forraje, agua, cobertura de alimento y umbral de venta.","pt":"Converter clima em dias de pasto, água, cobertura de ração e limite de venda."},"lag":"0 days to 16 weeks","regions":["north-america"],"sectors":["beef","dairy","feed"],"confidence":69},{"id":"cme-livestock-category-causal-edge","sourceId":"cme-livestock","from":"CME livestock and grain markets: futures curve, basis pressure, hedge timing","driver":{"en":"Forward price curve and speculative positioning","es":"Curva futura y posicionamiento especulativo","pt":"Curva futura e posicionamento especulativo"},"affects":{"en":"Hedge timing, basis risk, retained ownership, feed coverage, and financing needs","es":"Cobertura, riesgo de base, propiedad retenida, alimento y financiamiento","pt":"Hedge, risco de base, propriedade retida, ração e financiamento"},"producerDecision":{"en":"Use futures as risk-transfer context, then verify local basis before changing physical commitments.","es":"Usar futuros como contexto de riesgo y verificar base local antes de cambiar compromisos físicos.","pt":"Usar futuros como contexto de risco e verificar base local antes de mudar compromissos físicos."},"lag":"Intraday to 12 months","regions":["north-america"],"sectors":["beef","feed"],"confidence":63},{"id":"fao-newsroom-category-causal-edge","sourceId":"fao-newsroom","from":"FAO Newsroom: animal health report, food security, trade disruption, rural production","driver":{"en":"Regional event, policy, and local-market context","es":"Contexto regional, político y de mercado local","pt":"Contexto regional, político e de mercado local"},"affects":{"en":"Local prices, buyer behavior, public policy, logistics, input access, and producer confidence","es":"Precios locales, compradores, política, logística, insumos y confianza","pt":"Preços locais, compradores, política, logística, insumos e confiança"},"producerDecision":{"en":"Use the regional source to localize national headlines before changing the farm plan.","es":"Usar la fuente regional para localizar titulares nacionales antes de cambiar el plan.","pt":"Usar a fonte regional para localizar manchetes nacionais antes de mudar o plano."},"lag":"Same day to 1 year","regions":["north-america","latin-america","oceania","europe","africa-asia"],"sectors":["beef","dairy","feed","animal-health","crops"],"confidence":69},{"id":"argentina-senasa-category-causal-edge","sourceId":"argentina-senasa","from":"Argentina SENASA: animal movement, sanitary status, disease rules","driver":{"en":"Animal health, movement rules, and buyer-access risk","es":"Sanidad, reglas de movimiento y acceso de compradores","pt":"Sanidade, regras de movimentação e acesso de compradores"},"affects":{"en":"Movement friction, mortality risk, biosecurity spend, export eligibility, and buyer confidence","es":"Movimiento, mortalidad, bioseguridad, exportación y confianza del comprador","pt":"Movimentação, mortalidade, biossegurança, exportação e confiança do comprador"},"producerDecision":{"en":"Treat health status as market data before moving, buying, selling, or contracting livestock.","es":"Tratar sanidad como dato de mercado antes de mover, comprar, vender o contratar ganado.","pt":"Tratar sanidade como dado de mercado antes de mover, comprar, vender ou contratar gado."},"lag":"Same day to 12 weeks","regions":["latin-america"],"sectors":["beef","dairy","animal-health"],"confidence":69},{"id":"abares-category-causal-edge","sourceId":"abares","from":"ABARES agriculture data: herd size, farm income, exports, commodity outlook","driver":{"en":"Structural supply and herd-cycle pressure","es":"Oferta estructural y presión del ciclo ganadero","pt":"Oferta estrutural e pressão do ciclo pecuário"},"affects":{"en":"Replacement value, retained animals, slaughter availability, feed demand, and forward supply","es":"Reposición, animales retenidos, disponibilidad de faena, alimento y oferta futura","pt":"Reposição, animais retidos, disponibilidade de abate, ração e oferta futura"},"producerDecision":{"en":"Compare the herd-cycle signal with local feed and price conditions before expanding or liquidating.","es":"Comparar el ciclo ganadero con alimento y precio local antes de expandir o liquidar.","pt":"Comparar o ciclo pecuário com ração e preço local antes de expandir ou liquidar."},"lag":"1 month to 2 years","regions":["oceania"],"sectors":["beef","dairy","feed"],"confidence":69},{"id":"bom-climate-category-causal-edge","sourceId":"bom-climate","from":"Australian Bureau of Meteorology: rainfall, drought, heat stress, water","driver":{"en":"Weather, forage, heat, and water stress","es":"Clima, forraje, calor y estrés hídrico","pt":"Clima, pasto, calor e estresse hídrico"},"affects":{"en":"Pasture days, stocking rate, milk yield, crop yield, hay demand, and forced-sale risk","es":"Días de pasto, carga animal, leche, rendimiento, heno y venta forzada","pt":"Dias de pasto, lotação, leite, produtividade, feno e venda forçada"},"producerDecision":{"en":"Translate weather into forage days, water checks, feed coverage, and sale-or-hold thresholds.","es":"Convertir clima en días de forraje, agua, cobertura de alimento y umbral de venta.","pt":"Converter clima em dias de pasto, água, cobertura de ração e limite de venda."},"lag":"0 days to 16 weeks","regions":["oceania"],"sectors":["beef","dairy","feed"],"confidence":69},{"id":"stats-nz-category-causal-edge","sourceId":"stats-nz","from":"Stats NZ agriculture: dairy herd, beef cattle, exports, farm inputs","driver":{"en":"Structural supply and herd-cycle pressure","es":"Oferta estructural y presión del ciclo ganadero","pt":"Oferta estrutural e pressão do ciclo pecuário"},"affects":{"en":"Replacement value, retained animals, slaughter availability, feed demand, and forward supply","es":"Reposición, animales retenidos, disponibilidad de faena, alimento y oferta futura","pt":"Reposição, animais retidos, disponibilidade de abate, ração e oferta futura"},"producerDecision":{"en":"Compare the herd-cycle signal with local feed and price conditions before expanding or liquidating.","es":"Comparar el ciclo ganadero con alimento y precio local antes de expandir o liquidar.","pt":"Comparar o ciclo pecuário com ração e preço local antes de expandir ou liquidar."},"lag":"1 month to 2 years","regions":["oceania"],"sectors":["beef","dairy","feed"],"confidence":69},{"id":"usda-ers-dairy-category-causal-edge","sourceId":"usda-ers-dairy","from":"USDA ERS dairy data: all milk price, milk production, commercial disappearance, dairy product stocks","driver":{"en":"Milk margin, product demand, and dairy-beef supply","es":"Margen lechero, demanda de productos y carne lechera","pt":"Margem do leite, demanda de produtos e carne leiteira"},"affects":{"en":"Ration spend, milk output, cull timing, replacement appetite, and beef supply from dairy herds","es":"Dieta, leche, descarte, reposición y oferta de carne lechera","pt":"Dieta, leite, descarte, reposição e oferta de carne leiteira"},"producerDecision":{"en":"Watch milk-feed spread before changing ration, culling, replacement, or dairy-beef decisions.","es":"Vigilar leche-alimento antes de cambiar dieta, descarte, reposición o carne lechera.","pt":"Observar leite-ração antes de mudar dieta, descarte, reposição ou carne leiteira."},"lag":"2 weeks to 12 months","regions":["north-america"],"sectors":["dairy","feed"],"confidence":69},{"id":"fred-ag-macro-category-causal-edge","sourceId":"fred-ag-macro","from":"FRED agriculture macro series: farm income, credit cost, inflation, exchange rate","driver":{"en":"FX, credit, interest, and working-capital pressure","es":"Cambio, crédito, interés y capital de trabajo","pt":"Câmbio, crédito, juros e capital de giro"},"affects":{"en":"Export bids, imported inputs, replacement finance, herd expansion, crop planning, and cash flow","es":"Exportación, insumos importados, reposición, expansión, cultivos y caja","pt":"Exportação, insumos importados, reposição, expansão, culturas e caixa"},"producerDecision":{"en":"Run the decision in local currency and dollar-linked terms before expanding, feeding longer, or locking inputs.","es":"Hacer la decisión en moneda local y dólar antes de expandir, alimentar más o fijar insumos.","pt":"Fazer a decisão em moeda local e dólar antes de expandir, alimentar mais ou fixar insumos."},"lag":"Same day to 18 months","regions":["north-america"],"sectors":["beef","dairy","feed","crops"],"confidence":69},{"id":"noaa-cpc-category-causal-edge","sourceId":"noaa-cpc","from":"NOAA Climate Prediction Center: seasonal outlook, ENSO, hazards, precipitation anomaly","driver":{"en":"Weather, forage, heat, and water stress","es":"Clima, forraje, calor y estrés hídrico","pt":"Clima, pasto, calor e estresse hídrico"},"affects":{"en":"Pasture days, stocking rate, milk yield, crop yield, hay demand, and forced-sale risk","es":"Días de pasto, carga animal, leche, rendimiento, heno y venta forzada","pt":"Dias de pasto, lotação, leite, produtividade, feno e venda forçada"},"producerDecision":{"en":"Translate weather into forage days, water checks, feed coverage, and sale-or-hold thresholds.","es":"Convertir clima en días de forraje, agua, cobertura de alimento y umbral de venta.","pt":"Converter clima em dias de pasto, água, cobertura de ração e limite de venda."},"lag":"0 days to 16 weeks","regions":["north-america","latin-america","oceania","europe","africa-asia"],"sectors":["beef","dairy","feed","crops"],"confidence":69},{"id":"nasa-firms-category-causal-edge","sourceId":"nasa-firms","from":"NASA FIRMS fire data: wildfire, pasture burn risk, smoke, transport disruption","driver":{"en":"Weather, forage, heat, and water stress","es":"Clima, forraje, calor y estrés hídrico","pt":"Clima, pasto, calor e estresse hídrico"},"affects":{"en":"Pasture days, stocking rate, milk yield, crop yield, hay demand, and forced-sale risk","es":"Días de pasto, carga animal, leche, rendimiento, heno y venta forzada","pt":"Dias de pasto, lotação, leite, produtividade, feno e venda forçada"},"producerDecision":{"en":"Translate weather into forage days, water checks, feed coverage, and sale-or-hold thresholds.","es":"Convertir clima en días de forraje, agua, cobertura de alimento y umbral de venta.","pt":"Converter clima em dias de pasto, água, cobertura de ração e limite de venda."},"lag":"0 days to 16 weeks","regions":["north-america","latin-america","oceania","europe","africa-asia"],"sectors":["feed","crops","beef","dairy"],"confidence":69},{"id":"usda-rma-category-causal-edge","sourceId":"usda-rma","from":"USDA Risk Management Agency data: crop loss, indemnity, prevented planting, county risk","driver":{"en":"Crop balance, yield risk, and input allocation","es":"Balance agrícola, rendimiento e insumos","pt":"Balanço agrícola, produtividade e insumos"},"affects":{"en":"Feed availability, hay and grain basis, planting margin, ration choices, and livestock stocking","es":"Disponibilidad de alimento, base de heno y grano, siembra, dieta y carga animal","pt":"Disponibilidade de ração, base de feno e grão, plantio, dieta e lotação"},"producerDecision":{"en":"Connect crop signals to feed procurement, planting, hedging, and stocking-rate decisions.","es":"Conectar cultivos con compra de alimento, siembra, cobertura y carga animal.","pt":"Conectar culturas com compra de ração, plantio, hedge e lotação."},"lag":"2 weeks to 18 months","regions":["north-america"],"sectors":["crops","feed"],"confidence":69},{"id":"usda-fsa-category-causal-edge","sourceId":"usda-fsa","from":"USDA Farm Service Agency data: acreage, disaster assistance, program participation, forage risk","driver":{"en":"Crop balance, yield risk, and input allocation","es":"Balance agrícola, rendimiento e insumos","pt":"Balanço agrícola, produtividade e insumos"},"affects":{"en":"Feed availability, hay and grain basis, planting margin, ration choices, and livestock stocking","es":"Disponibilidad de alimento, base de heno y grano, siembra, dieta y carga animal","pt":"Disponibilidade de ração, base de feno e grão, plantio, dieta e lotação"},"producerDecision":{"en":"Connect crop signals to feed procurement, planting, hedging, and stocking-rate decisions.","es":"Conectar cultivos con compra de alimento, siembra, cobertura y carga animal.","pt":"Conectar culturas com compra de ração, plantio, hedge e lotação."},"lag":"2 weeks to 18 months","regions":["north-america"],"sectors":["crops","feed","beef","dairy"],"confidence":69},{"id":"argentina-magyp-category-causal-edge","sourceId":"argentina-magyp","from":"Argentina MAGyP data: livestock prices, grain production, dairy output, export policy","driver":{"en":"Regional event, policy, and local-market context","es":"Contexto regional, político y de mercado local","pt":"Contexto regional, político e de mercado local"},"affects":{"en":"Local prices, buyer behavior, public policy, logistics, input access, and producer confidence","es":"Precios locales, compradores, política, logística, insumos y confianza","pt":"Preços locais, compradores, política, logística, insumos e confiança"},"producerDecision":{"en":"Use the regional source to localize national headlines before changing the farm plan.","es":"Usar la fuente regional para localizar titulares nacionales antes de cambiar el plan.","pt":"Usar a fonte regional para localizar manchetes nacionais antes de mudar o plano."},"lag":"Same day to 1 year","regions":["latin-america"],"sectors":["beef","dairy","feed","crops"],"confidence":69},{"id":"mexico-siap-agri-category-causal-edge","sourceId":"mexico-siap-agri","from":"Mexico SIAP agriculture data: corn production, livestock production, milk production, regional price","driver":{"en":"Crop balance, yield risk, and input allocation","es":"Balance agrícola, rendimiento e insumos","pt":"Balanço agrícola, produtividade e insumos"},"affects":{"en":"Feed availability, hay and grain basis, planting margin, ration choices, and livestock stocking","es":"Disponibilidad de alimento, base de heno y grano, siembra, dieta y carga animal","pt":"Disponibilidade de ração, base de feno e grão, plantio, dieta e lotação"},"producerDecision":{"en":"Connect crop signals to feed procurement, planting, hedging, and stocking-rate decisions.","es":"Conectar cultivos con compra de alimento, siembra, cobertura y carga animal.","pt":"Conectar culturas com compra de ração, plantio, hedge e lotação."},"lag":"2 weeks to 18 months","regions":["latin-america","north-america"],"sectors":["beef","dairy","feed","crops"],"confidence":69},{"id":"uruguay-inac-category-causal-edge","sourceId":"uruguay-inac","from":"Uruguay INAC: cattle price, slaughter, beef exports, carcass weight","driver":{"en":"Local price discovery and basis movement","es":"Descubrimiento de precio local y movimiento de base","pt":"Descoberta de preço local e movimento de base"},"affects":{"en":"Sale timing, buyer leverage, class spreads, hedge urgency, and cash-flow planning","es":"Momento de venta, poder del comprador, diferenciales, cobertura y caja","pt":"Momento de venda, poder do comprador, diferenciais, hedge e caixa"},"producerDecision":{"en":"Use the local price source as a bid check before selling, holding, hedging, or buying replacements.","es":"Usar la fuente local de precios como control antes de vender, retener, cubrir o comprar reposición.","pt":"Usar a fonte local de preços como controle antes de vender, reter, fazer hedge ou comprar reposição."},"lag":"Same day to 2 weeks","regions":["latin-america"],"sectors":["beef"],"confidence":69},{"id":"paraguay-senacsa-category-causal-edge","sourceId":"paraguay-senacsa","from":"Paraguay SENACSA: sanitary status, certification, movement, exports","driver":{"en":"Animal health, movement rules, and buyer-access risk","es":"Sanidad, reglas de movimiento y acceso de compradores","pt":"Sanidade, regras de movimentação e acesso de compradores"},"affects":{"en":"Movement friction, mortality risk, biosecurity spend, export eligibility, and buyer confidence","es":"Movimiento, mortalidad, bioseguridad, exportación y confianza del comprador","pt":"Movimentação, mortalidade, biossegurança, exportação e confiança do comprador"},"producerDecision":{"en":"Treat health status as market data before moving, buying, selling, or contracting livestock.","es":"Tratar sanidad como dato de mercado antes de mover, comprar, vender o contratar ganado.","pt":"Tratar sanidade como dado de mercado antes de mover, comprar, vender ou contratar gado."},"lag":"Same day to 12 weeks","regions":["latin-america"],"sectors":["beef","animal-health"],"confidence":69},{"id":"eurostat-comext-category-causal-edge","sourceId":"eurostat-comext","from":"Eurostat COMEXT: beef imports, dairy exports, grain trade, fertilizer trade","driver":{"en":"Export pull, border access, and destination risk","es":"Demanda exportadora, frontera y riesgo de destino","pt":"Demanda exportadora, fronteira e risco de destino"},"affects":{"en":"Processor bids, local basis, cull demand, feed-grain flows, and market-access premiums","es":"Ofertas frigoríficas, base local, descarte, granos y primas de acceso","pt":"Preços de frigorífico, base local, descarte, grãos e prêmios de acesso"},"producerDecision":{"en":"Price cattle, milk, crops, and feed with destination exposure before committing volume.","es":"Valuar ganado, leche, cultivos y alimento con exposición de destino antes de comprometer volumen.","pt":"Precificar gado, leite, culturas e ração com exposição de destino antes de comprometer volume."},"lag":"Same week to 6 months","regions":["europe"],"sectors":["beef","dairy","feed","crops"],"confidence":69},{"id":"uk-defra-category-causal-edge","sourceId":"uk-defra","from":"UK Defra agriculture statistics: farmgate prices, milk production, livestock population, input costs","driver":{"en":"Regional event, policy, and local-market context","es":"Contexto regional, político y de mercado local","pt":"Contexto regional, político e de mercado local"},"affects":{"en":"Local prices, buyer behavior, public policy, logistics, input access, and producer confidence","es":"Precios locales, compradores, política, logística, insumos y confianza","pt":"Preços locais, compradores, política, logística, insumos e confiança"},"producerDecision":{"en":"Use the regional source to localize national headlines before changing the farm plan.","es":"Usar la fuente regional para localizar titulares nacionales antes de cambiar el plan.","pt":"Usar a fonte regional para localizar manchetes nacionais antes de mudar o plano."},"lag":"Same day to 1 year","regions":["europe"],"sectors":["beef","dairy","feed","crops"],"confidence":69},{"id":"nz-mpi-category-causal-edge","sourceId":"nz-mpi","from":"New Zealand MPI agriculture data: primary exports, farm monitoring, meat outlook, dairy outlook","driver":{"en":"Regional event, policy, and local-market context","es":"Contexto regional, político y de mercado local","pt":"Contexto regional, político e de mercado local"},"affects":{"en":"Local prices, buyer behavior, public policy, logistics, input access, and producer confidence","es":"Precios locales, compradores, política, logística, insumos y confianza","pt":"Preços locais, compradores, política, logística, insumos e confiança"},"producerDecision":{"en":"Use the regional source to localize national headlines before changing the farm plan.","es":"Usar la fuente regional para localizar titulares nacionales antes de cambiar el plan.","pt":"Usar a fonte regional para localizar manchetes nacionais antes de mudar o plano."},"lag":"Same day to 1 year","regions":["oceania"],"sectors":["beef","dairy","feed","crops"],"confidence":69},{"id":"australia-daff-category-causal-edge","sourceId":"australia-daff","from":"Australia DAFF agricultural trade: beef exports, grain exports, biosecurity, market access","driver":{"en":"Export pull, border access, and destination risk","es":"Demanda exportadora, frontera y riesgo de destino","pt":"Demanda exportadora, fronteira e risco de destino"},"affects":{"en":"Processor bids, local basis, cull demand, feed-grain flows, and market-access premiums","es":"Ofertas frigoríficas, base local, descarte, granos y primas de acceso","pt":"Preços de frigorífico, base local, descarte, grãos e prêmios de acesso"},"producerDecision":{"en":"Price cattle, milk, crops, and feed with destination exposure before committing volume.","es":"Valuar ganado, leche, cultivos y alimento con exposición de destino antes de comprometer volumen.","pt":"Precificar gado, leite, culturas e ração com exposição de destino antes de comprometer volume."},"lag":"Same week to 6 months","regions":["oceania"],"sectors":["beef","dairy","feed","crops","animal-health"],"confidence":69},{"id":"world-bank-climate-category-causal-edge","sourceId":"world-bank-climate","from":"World Bank Climate Data: country climate risk, precipitation trend, temperature trend, drought exposure","driver":{"en":"Weather, forage, heat, and water stress","es":"Clima, forraje, calor y estrés hídrico","pt":"Clima, pasto, calor e estresse hídrico"},"affects":{"en":"Pasture days, stocking rate, milk yield, crop yield, hay demand, and forced-sale risk","es":"Días de pasto, carga animal, leche, rendimiento, heno y venta forzada","pt":"Dias de pasto, lotação, leite, produtividade, feno e venda forçada"},"producerDecision":{"en":"Translate weather into forage days, water checks, feed coverage, and sale-or-hold thresholds.","es":"Convertir clima en días de forraje, agua, cobertura de alimento y umbral de venta.","pt":"Converter clima em dias de pasto, água, cobertura de ração e limite de venda."},"lag":"0 days to 16 weeks","regions":["north-america","latin-america","oceania","europe","africa-asia"],"sectors":["beef","dairy","feed","crops"],"confidence":69},{"id":"statcan-agriculture-category-causal-edge","sourceId":"statcan-agriculture","from":"Statistics Canada agriculture and food data: cattle inventory, dairy herd, crop production, farm income","driver":{"en":"Structural supply and herd-cycle pressure","es":"Oferta estructural y presión del ciclo ganadero","pt":"Oferta estrutural e pressão do ciclo pecuário"},"affects":{"en":"Replacement value, retained animals, slaughter availability, feed demand, and forward supply","es":"Reposición, animales retenidos, disponibilidad de faena, alimento y oferta futura","pt":"Reposição, animais retidos, disponibilidade de abate, ração e oferta futura"},"producerDecision":{"en":"Compare the herd-cycle signal with local feed and price conditions before expanding or liquidating.","es":"Comparar el ciclo ganadero con alimento y precio local antes de expandir o liquidar.","pt":"Comparar o ciclo pecuário com ração e preço local antes de expandir ou liquidar."},"lag":"1 month to 2 years","regions":["north-america"],"sectors":["beef","dairy","feed","crops"],"confidence":69},{"id":"canada-aafc-red-meat-category-causal-edge","sourceId":"canada-aafc-red-meat","from":"Agriculture Canada red meat market information: red meat prices, slaughter, trade, supply","driver":{"en":"Local price discovery and basis movement","es":"Descubrimiento de precio local y movimiento de base","pt":"Descoberta de preço local e movimento de base"},"affects":{"en":"Sale timing, buyer leverage, class spreads, hedge urgency, and cash-flow planning","es":"Momento de venta, poder del comprador, diferenciales, cobertura y caja","pt":"Momento de venda, poder do comprador, diferenciais, hedge e caixa"},"producerDecision":{"en":"Use the local price source as a bid check before selling, holding, hedging, or buying replacements.","es":"Usar la fuente local de precios como control antes de vender, retener, cubrir o comprar reposición.","pt":"Usar a fonte local de preços como controle antes de vender, reter, fazer hedge ou comprar reposição."},"lag":"Same day to 2 weeks","regions":["north-america"],"sectors":["beef","feed"],"confidence":69},{"id":"usda-lmr-category-causal-edge","sourceId":"usda-lmr","from":"USDA Livestock Mandatory Reporting: fed cattle trade, boxed beef, cutout, packer bids","driver":{"en":"Local price discovery and basis movement","es":"Descubrimiento de precio local y movimiento de base","pt":"Descoberta de preço local e movimento de base"},"affects":{"en":"Sale timing, buyer leverage, class spreads, hedge urgency, and cash-flow planning","es":"Momento de venta, poder del comprador, diferenciales, cobertura y caja","pt":"Momento de venda, poder do comprador, diferenciais, hedge e caixa"},"producerDecision":{"en":"Use the local price source as a bid check before selling, holding, hedging, or buying replacements.","es":"Usar la fuente local de precios como control antes de vender, retener, cubrir o comprar reposición.","pt":"Usar a fonte local de preços como controle antes de vender, reter, fazer hedge ou comprar reposição."},"lag":"Same day to 2 weeks","regions":["north-america"],"sectors":["beef"],"confidence":69},{"id":"usda-nrcs-snotel-scan-category-causal-edge","sourceId":"usda-nrcs-snotel-scan","from":"USDA NRCS SNOTEL and SCAN: snowpack, soil moisture, range water, irrigation supply","driver":{"en":"Measured water availability and irrigation stress","es":"Agua medida y estrés de riego","pt":"Água medida e estresse de irrigação"},"affects":{"en":"Stocking rate, pasture recovery, crop-feed yield, hay demand, and forced-sale pressure","es":"Carga animal, pasto, rendimiento de alimento, heno y venta forzada","pt":"Lotação, pasto, produtividade de ração, feno e venda forçada"},"producerDecision":{"en":"Pair water readings with rainfall and forage inventory before changing stocking or crop-feed plans.","es":"Cruzar agua con lluvia y forraje antes de cambiar carga o planes agrícolas.","pt":"Cruzar água com chuva e pasto antes de mudar lotação ou planos agrícolas."},"lag":"Same day to 12 weeks","regions":["north-america"],"sectors":["beef","dairy","feed","crops"],"confidence":69},{"id":"brazil-ana-hidroweb-category-causal-edge","sourceId":"brazil-ana-hidroweb","from":"Brazil ANA HidroWeb and SNIRH: river level, streamflow, reservoirs, rainfall","driver":{"en":"Measured water availability and irrigation stress","es":"Agua medida y estrés de riego","pt":"Água medida e estresse de irrigação"},"affects":{"en":"Stocking rate, pasture recovery, crop-feed yield, hay demand, and forced-sale pressure","es":"Carga animal, pasto, rendimiento de alimento, heno y venta forzada","pt":"Lotação, pasto, produtividade de ração, feno e venda forçada"},"producerDecision":{"en":"Pair water readings with rainfall and forage inventory before changing stocking or crop-feed plans.","es":"Cruzar agua con lluvia y forraje antes de cambiar carga o planes agrícolas.","pt":"Cruzar água com chuva e pasto antes de mudar lotação ou planos agrícolas."},"lag":"Same day to 12 weeks","regions":["latin-america"],"sectors":["beef","dairy","feed","crops"],"confidence":69},{"id":"brazil-cemaden-category-causal-edge","sourceId":"brazil-cemaden","from":"Brazil CEMADEN monitoring: drought monitoring, rainfall alerts, flood risk, transport disruption","driver":{"en":"Weather, forage, heat, and water stress","es":"Clima, forraje, calor y estrés hídrico","pt":"Clima, pasto, calor e estresse hídrico"},"affects":{"en":"Pasture days, stocking rate, milk yield, crop yield, hay demand, and forced-sale risk","es":"Días de pasto, carga animal, leche, rendimiento, heno y venta forzada","pt":"Dias de pasto, lotação, leite, produtividade, feno e venda forçada"},"producerDecision":{"en":"Translate weather into forage days, water checks, feed coverage, and sale-or-hold thresholds.","es":"Convertir clima en días de forraje, agua, cobertura de alimento y umbral de venta.","pt":"Converter clima em dias de pasto, água, cobertura de ração e limite de venda."},"lag":"0 days to 16 weeks","regions":["latin-america"],"sectors":["beef","dairy","feed","crops"],"confidence":69},{"id":"argentina-smn-category-causal-edge","sourceId":"argentina-smn","from":"Argentina SMN weather data: rainfall, heat, severe weather, agrometeorology","driver":{"en":"Weather, forage, heat, and water stress","es":"Clima, forraje, calor y estrés hídrico","pt":"Clima, pasto, calor e estresse hídrico"},"affects":{"en":"Pasture days, stocking rate, milk yield, crop yield, hay demand, and forced-sale risk","es":"Días de pasto, carga animal, leche, rendimiento, heno y venta forzada","pt":"Dias de pasto, lotação, leite, produtividade, feno e venda forçada"},"producerDecision":{"en":"Translate weather into forage days, water checks, feed coverage, and sale-or-hold thresholds.","es":"Convertir clima en días de forraje, agua, cobertura de alimento y umbral de venta.","pt":"Converter clima em dias de pasto, água, cobertura de ração e limite de venda."},"lag":"0 days to 16 weeks","regions":["latin-america"],"sectors":["beef","dairy","feed","crops"],"confidence":69},{"id":"argentina-bcr-category-causal-edge","sourceId":"argentina-bcr","from":"Bolsa de Comercio de Rosario: corn, soybean, physical market, grain logistics","driver":{"en":"Crop balance, yield risk, and input allocation","es":"Balance agrícola, rendimiento e insumos","pt":"Balanço agrícola, produtividade e insumos"},"affects":{"en":"Feed availability, hay and grain basis, planting margin, ration choices, and livestock stocking","es":"Disponibilidad de alimento, base de heno y grano, siembra, dieta y carga animal","pt":"Disponibilidade de ração, base de feno e grão, plantio, dieta e lotação"},"producerDecision":{"en":"Connect crop signals to feed procurement, planting, hedging, and stocking-rate decisions.","es":"Conectar cultivos con compra de alimento, siembra, cobertura y carga animal.","pt":"Conectar culturas com compra de ração, plantio, hedge e lotação."},"lag":"2 weeks to 18 months","regions":["latin-america"],"sectors":["feed","crops","beef","dairy"],"confidence":65},{"id":"chile-odepa-data-category-causal-edge","sourceId":"chile-odepa-data","from":"Chile ODEPA open data: beef prices, dairy prices, crop prices, trade","driver":{"en":"Regional event, policy, and local-market context","es":"Contexto regional, político y de mercado local","pt":"Contexto regional, político e de mercado local"},"affects":{"en":"Local prices, buyer behavior, public policy, logistics, input access, and producer confidence","es":"Precios locales, compradores, política, logística, insumos y confianza","pt":"Preços locais, compradores, política, logística, insumos e confiança"},"producerDecision":{"en":"Use the regional source to localize national headlines before changing the farm plan.","es":"Usar la fuente regional para localizar titulares nacionales antes de cambiar el plan.","pt":"Usar a fonte regional para localizar manchetes nacionais antes de mudar o plano."},"lag":"Same day to 1 year","regions":["latin-america"],"sectors":["beef","dairy","feed","crops"],"confidence":69},{"id":"mexico-sniim-category-causal-edge","sourceId":"mexico-sniim","from":"Mexico SNIIM market information: livestock price, meat price, feed ingredient, market volume","driver":{"en":"Local price discovery and basis movement","es":"Descubrimiento de precio local y movimiento de base","pt":"Descoberta de preço local e movimento de base"},"affects":{"en":"Sale timing, buyer leverage, class spreads, hedge urgency, and cash-flow planning","es":"Momento de venta, poder del comprador, diferenciales, cobertura y caja","pt":"Momento de venda, poder do comprador, diferenciais, hedge e caixa"},"producerDecision":{"en":"Use the local price source as a bid check before selling, holding, hedging, or buying replacements.","es":"Usar la fuente local de precios como control antes de vender, retener, cubrir o comprar reposición.","pt":"Usar a fonte local de preços como controle antes de vender, reter, fazer hedge ou comprar reposição."},"lag":"Same day to 2 weeks","regions":["latin-america","north-america"],"sectors":["beef","dairy","feed","crops"],"confidence":69},{"id":"mexico-conagua-smn-category-causal-edge","sourceId":"mexico-conagua-smn","from":"Mexico CONAGUA-SMN climate data: drought, rainfall, reservoirs, temperature","driver":{"en":"Weather, forage, heat, and water stress","es":"Clima, forraje, calor y estrés hídrico","pt":"Clima, pasto, calor e estresse hídrico"},"affects":{"en":"Pasture days, stocking rate, milk yield, crop yield, hay demand, and forced-sale risk","es":"Días de pasto, carga animal, leche, rendimiento, heno y venta forzada","pt":"Dias de pasto, lotação, leite, produtividade, feno e venda forçada"},"producerDecision":{"en":"Translate weather into forage days, water checks, feed coverage, and sale-or-hold thresholds.","es":"Convertir clima en días de forraje, agua, cobertura de alimento y umbral de venta.","pt":"Converter clima em dias de pasto, água, cobertura de ração e limite de venda."},"lag":"0 days to 16 weeks","regions":["latin-america","north-america"],"sectors":["beef","dairy","feed","crops"],"confidence":69},{"id":"colombia-agronet-category-causal-edge","sourceId":"colombia-agronet","from":"Colombia AGRONET: regional prices, production, input costs, trade","driver":{"en":"Regional event, policy, and local-market context","es":"Contexto regional, político y de mercado local","pt":"Contexto regional, político e de mercado local"},"affects":{"en":"Local prices, buyer behavior, public policy, logistics, input access, and producer confidence","es":"Precios locales, compradores, política, logística, insumos y confianza","pt":"Preços locais, compradores, política, logística, insumos e confiança"},"producerDecision":{"en":"Use the regional source to localize national headlines before changing the farm plan.","es":"Usar la fuente regional para localizar titulares nacionales antes de cambiar el plan.","pt":"Usar a fonte regional para localizar manchetes nacionais antes de mudar o plano."},"lag":"Same day to 1 year","regions":["latin-america"],"sectors":["beef","dairy","feed","crops"],"confidence":69},{"id":"uruguay-snig-category-causal-edge","sourceId":"uruguay-snig","from":"Uruguay SNIG livestock information: cattle movement, traceability, sanitary context, herd information","driver":{"en":"Structural supply and herd-cycle pressure","es":"Oferta estructural y presión del ciclo ganadero","pt":"Oferta estrutural e pressão do ciclo pecuário"},"affects":{"en":"Replacement value, retained animals, slaughter availability, feed demand, and forward supply","es":"Reposición, animales retenidos, disponibilidad de faena, alimento y oferta futura","pt":"Reposição, animais retidos, disponibilidade de abate, ração e oferta futura"},"producerDecision":{"en":"Compare the herd-cycle signal with local feed and price conditions before expanding or liquidating.","es":"Comparar el ciclo ganadero con alimento y precio local antes de expandir o liquidar.","pt":"Comparar o ciclo pecuário com ração e preço local antes de expandir ou liquidar."},"lag":"1 month to 2 years","regions":["latin-america"],"sectors":["beef","animal-health"],"confidence":69},{"id":"peru-midagri-sisap-category-causal-edge","sourceId":"peru-midagri-sisap","from":"Peru MIDAGRI SISAP: market prices, wholesale supply, feed crops, regional food prices","driver":{"en":"Local price discovery and basis movement","es":"Descubrimiento de precio local y movimiento de base","pt":"Descoberta de preço local e movimento de base"},"affects":{"en":"Sale timing, buyer leverage, class spreads, hedge urgency, and cash-flow planning","es":"Momento de venta, poder del comprador, diferenciales, cobertura y caja","pt":"Momento de venda, poder do comprador, diferenciais, hedge e caixa"},"producerDecision":{"en":"Use the local price source as a bid check before selling, holding, hedging, or buying replacements.","es":"Usar la fuente local de precios como control antes de vender, retener, cubrir o comprar reposición.","pt":"Usar a fonte local de preços como controle antes de vender, reter, fazer hedge ou comprar reposição."},"lag":"Same day to 2 weeks","regions":["latin-america"],"sectors":["beef","dairy","feed","crops"],"confidence":69},{"id":"fao-aquastat-category-causal-edge","sourceId":"fao-aquastat","from":"FAO AQUASTAT: water resources, irrigation, withdrawals, water stress","driver":{"en":"Measured water availability and irrigation stress","es":"Agua medida y estrés de riego","pt":"Água medida e estresse de irrigação"},"affects":{"en":"Stocking rate, pasture recovery, crop-feed yield, hay demand, and forced-sale pressure","es":"Carga animal, pasto, rendimiento de alimento, heno y venta forzada","pt":"Lotação, pasto, produtividade de ração, feno e venda forçada"},"producerDecision":{"en":"Pair water readings with rainfall and forage inventory before changing stocking or crop-feed plans.","es":"Cruzar agua con lluvia y forraje antes de cambiar carga o planes agrícolas.","pt":"Cruzar água com chuva e pasto antes de mudar lotação ou planos agrícolas."},"lag":"Same day to 12 weeks","regions":["north-america","latin-america","oceania","europe","africa-asia"],"sectors":["beef","dairy","feed","crops"],"confidence":69},{"id":"brazil-embrapa-category-causal-edge","sourceId":"brazil-embrapa","from":"Embrapa livestock and crop research: pasture systems, forage research, production costs, technical alerts","driver":{"en":"Regional event, policy, and local-market context","es":"Contexto regional, político y de mercado local","pt":"Contexto regional, político e de mercado local"},"affects":{"en":"Local prices, buyer behavior, public policy, logistics, input access, and producer confidence","es":"Precios locales, compradores, política, logística, insumos y confianza","pt":"Preços locais, compradores, política, logística, insumos e confiança"},"producerDecision":{"en":"Use the regional source to localize national headlines before changing the farm plan.","es":"Usar la fuente regional para localizar titulares nacionales antes de cambiar el plan.","pt":"Usar a fonte regional para localizar manchetes nacionais antes de mudar o plano."},"lag":"Same day to 1 year","regions":["latin-america"],"sectors":["beef","dairy","feed","crops"],"confidence":61},{"id":"brazil-cna-costs-category-causal-edge","sourceId":"brazil-cna-costs","from":"Brazil CNA and Cepea farm-cost projects: production costs, input costs, regional margins, profitability","driver":{"en":"Macro demand, inflation, affordability, and input-cost translation","es":"Demanda macro, inflación, poder de compra e insumos","pt":"Demanda macro, inflação, poder de compra e insumos"},"affects":{"en":"Consumer demand, working capital, import affordability, input costs, and farm cash flow","es":"Demanda, capital de trabajo, importaciones, insumos y caja rural","pt":"Demanda, capital de giro, importações, insumos e caixa rural"},"producerDecision":{"en":"Read macro series with local bids before assuming a farm-margin signal is only local.","es":"Leer macro con ofertas locales antes de asumir que el margen rural es solo local.","pt":"Ler macro com preços locais antes de assumir que a margem rural é só local."},"lag":"1 month to 5 years","regions":["latin-america"],"sectors":["beef","dairy","feed","crops"],"confidence":61},{"id":"brazil-cepea-grains-category-causal-edge","sourceId":"brazil-cepea-grains","from":"CEPEA grain, milk, and input indicators: corn price, soybean price, milk price, feed spread","driver":{"en":"Local price discovery and basis movement","es":"Descubrimiento de precio local y movimiento de base","pt":"Descoberta de preço local e movimento de base"},"affects":{"en":"Sale timing, buyer leverage, class spreads, hedge urgency, and cash-flow planning","es":"Momento de venta, poder del comprador, diferenciales, cobertura y caja","pt":"Momento de venda, poder do comprador, diferenciais, hedge e caixa"},"producerDecision":{"en":"Use the local price source as a bid check before selling, holding, hedging, or buying replacements.","es":"Usar la fuente local de precios como control antes de vender, retener, cubrir o comprar reposición.","pt":"Usar a fonte local de preços como controle antes de vender, reter, fazer hedge ou comprar reposição."},"lag":"Same day to 2 weeks","regions":["latin-america"],"sectors":["beef","dairy","feed","crops"],"confidence":61},{"id":"argentina-indec-category-causal-edge","sourceId":"argentina-indec","from":"Argentina INDEC statistics: inflation, trade, food prices, regional production","driver":{"en":"Macro demand, inflation, affordability, and input-cost translation","es":"Demanda macro, inflación, poder de compra e insumos","pt":"Demanda macro, inflação, poder de compra e insumos"},"affects":{"en":"Consumer demand, working capital, import affordability, input costs, and farm cash flow","es":"Demanda, capital de trabajo, importaciones, insumos y caja rural","pt":"Demanda, capital de giro, importações, insumos e caixa rural"},"producerDecision":{"en":"Read macro series with local bids before assuming a farm-margin signal is only local.","es":"Leer macro con ofertas locales antes de asumir que el margen rural es solo local.","pt":"Ler macro com preços locais antes de assumir que a margem rural é só local."},"lag":"1 month to 5 years","regions":["latin-america"],"sectors":["beef","dairy","feed","crops"],"confidence":69},{"id":"argentina-mercado-agroganadero-category-causal-edge","sourceId":"argentina-mercado-agroganadero","from":"Mercado Agroganadero de Cañuelas: cattle arrivals, category prices, buyer demand, auction volume","driver":{"en":"Local price discovery and basis movement","es":"Descubrimiento de precio local y movimiento de base","pt":"Descoberta de preço local e movimento de base"},"affects":{"en":"Sale timing, buyer leverage, class spreads, hedge urgency, and cash-flow planning","es":"Momento de venta, poder del comprador, diferenciales, cobertura y caja","pt":"Momento de venda, poder do comprador, diferenciais, hedge e caixa"},"producerDecision":{"en":"Use the local price source as a bid check before selling, holding, hedging, or buying replacements.","es":"Usar la fuente local de precios como control antes de vender, retener, cubrir o comprar reposición.","pt":"Usar a fonte local de preços como controle antes de vender, reter, fazer hedge ou comprar reposição."},"lag":"Same day to 2 weeks","regions":["latin-america"],"sectors":["beef"],"confidence":65},{"id":"argentina-rosgan-category-causal-edge","sourceId":"argentina-rosgan","from":"ROSGAN cattle auction market: replacement prices, auction volume, regional cattle flow, category demand","driver":{"en":"Local price discovery and basis movement","es":"Descubrimiento de precio local y movimiento de base","pt":"Descoberta de preço local e movimento de base"},"affects":{"en":"Sale timing, buyer leverage, class spreads, hedge urgency, and cash-flow planning","es":"Momento de venta, poder del comprador, diferenciales, cobertura y caja","pt":"Momento de venda, poder do comprador, diferenciais, hedge e caixa"},"producerDecision":{"en":"Use the local price source as a bid check before selling, holding, hedging, or buying replacements.","es":"Usar la fuente local de precios como control antes de vender, retener, cubrir o comprar reposición.","pt":"Usar a fonte local de preços como controle antes de vender, reter, fazer hedge ou comprar reposição."},"lag":"Same day to 2 weeks","regions":["latin-america"],"sectors":["beef"],"confidence":65},{"id":"uruguay-mgap-category-causal-edge","sourceId":"uruguay-mgap","from":"Uruguay MGAP statistics: cattle stock, dairy production, land use, policy","driver":{"en":"Structural supply and herd-cycle pressure","es":"Oferta estructural y presión del ciclo ganadero","pt":"Oferta estrutural e pressão do ciclo pecuário"},"affects":{"en":"Replacement value, retained animals, slaughter availability, feed demand, and forward supply","es":"Reposición, animales retenidos, disponibilidad de faena, alimento y oferta futura","pt":"Reposição, animais retidos, disponibilidade de abate, ração e oferta futura"},"producerDecision":{"en":"Compare the herd-cycle signal with local feed and price conditions before expanding or liquidating.","es":"Comparar el ciclo ganadero con alimento y precio local antes de expandir o liquidar.","pt":"Comparar o ciclo pecuário com ração e preço local antes de expandir ou liquidar."},"lag":"1 month to 2 years","regions":["latin-america"],"sectors":["beef","dairy","feed","crops","animal-health"],"confidence":69},{"id":"uruguay-inumet-category-causal-edge","sourceId":"uruguay-inumet","from":"Uruguay INUMET weather: rainfall, drought, temperature, climate outlook","driver":{"en":"Weather, forage, heat, and water stress","es":"Clima, forraje, calor y estrés hídrico","pt":"Clima, pasto, calor e estresse hídrico"},"affects":{"en":"Pasture days, stocking rate, milk yield, crop yield, hay demand, and forced-sale risk","es":"Días de pasto, carga animal, leche, rendimiento, heno y venta forzada","pt":"Dias de pasto, lotação, leite, produtividade, feno e venda forçada"},"producerDecision":{"en":"Translate weather into forage days, water checks, feed coverage, and sale-or-hold thresholds.","es":"Convertir clima en días de forraje, agua, cobertura de alimento y umbral de venta.","pt":"Converter clima em dias de pasto, água, cobertura de ração e limite de venda."},"lag":"0 days to 16 weeks","regions":["latin-america"],"sectors":["beef","dairy","feed","crops"],"confidence":69},{"id":"chile-sag-category-causal-edge","sourceId":"chile-sag","from":"Chile SAG animal health and movement: sanitary status, animal movement, border controls, certification","driver":{"en":"Animal health, movement rules, and buyer-access risk","es":"Sanidad, reglas de movimiento y acceso de compradores","pt":"Sanidade, regras de movimentação e acesso de compradores"},"affects":{"en":"Movement friction, mortality risk, biosecurity spend, export eligibility, and buyer confidence","es":"Movimiento, mortalidad, bioseguridad, exportación y confianza del comprador","pt":"Movimentação, mortalidade, biossegurança, exportação e confiança do comprador"},"producerDecision":{"en":"Treat health status as market data before moving, buying, selling, or contracting livestock.","es":"Tratar sanidad como dato de mercado antes de mover, comprar, vender o contratar ganado.","pt":"Tratar sanidade como dado de mercado antes de mover, comprar, vender ou contratar gado."},"lag":"Same day to 12 weeks","regions":["latin-america"],"sectors":["animal-health","beef","dairy"],"confidence":69},{"id":"chile-ine-agriculture-category-causal-edge","sourceId":"chile-ine-agriculture","from":"Chile INE agriculture statistics: livestock inventory, milk production, crop production, regional prices","driver":{"en":"Structural supply and herd-cycle pressure","es":"Oferta estructural y presión del ciclo ganadero","pt":"Oferta estrutural e pressão do ciclo pecuário"},"affects":{"en":"Replacement value, retained animals, slaughter availability, feed demand, and forward supply","es":"Reposición, animales retenidos, disponibilidad de faena, alimento y oferta futura","pt":"Reposição, animais retidos, disponibilidade de abate, ração e oferta futura"},"producerDecision":{"en":"Compare the herd-cycle signal with local feed and price conditions before expanding or liquidating.","es":"Comparar el ciclo ganadero con alimento y precio local antes de expandir o liquidar.","pt":"Comparar o ciclo pecuário com ração e preço local antes de expandir ou liquidar."},"lag":"1 month to 2 years","regions":["latin-america"],"sectors":["beef","dairy","feed","crops"],"confidence":69},{"id":"colombia-dane-agriculture-category-causal-edge","sourceId":"colombia-dane-agriculture","from":"Colombia DANE agriculture statistics: cattle slaughter, milk production, food inflation, regional agriculture","driver":{"en":"Structural supply and herd-cycle pressure","es":"Oferta estructural y presión del ciclo ganadero","pt":"Oferta estrutural e pressão do ciclo pecuário"},"affects":{"en":"Replacement value, retained animals, slaughter availability, feed demand, and forward supply","es":"Reposición, animales retenidos, disponibilidad de faena, alimento y oferta futura","pt":"Reposição, animais retidos, disponibilidade de abate, ração e oferta futura"},"producerDecision":{"en":"Compare the herd-cycle signal with local feed and price conditions before expanding or liquidating.","es":"Comparar el ciclo ganadero con alimento y precio local antes de expandir o liquidar.","pt":"Comparar o ciclo pecuário com ração e preço local antes de expandir ou liquidar."},"lag":"1 month to 2 years","regions":["latin-america"],"sectors":["beef","dairy","feed","crops"],"confidence":69},{"id":"colombia-fedegan-category-causal-edge","sourceId":"colombia-fedegan","from":"Colombia FEDEGAN market reports: cattle prices, producer context, dairy context, sanitary risk","driver":{"en":"Regional event, policy, and local-market context","es":"Contexto regional, político y de mercado local","pt":"Contexto regional, político e de mercado local"},"affects":{"en":"Local prices, buyer behavior, public policy, logistics, input access, and producer confidence","es":"Precios locales, compradores, política, logística, insumos y confianza","pt":"Preços locais, compradores, política, logística, insumos e confiança"},"producerDecision":{"en":"Use the regional source to localize national headlines before changing the farm plan.","es":"Usar la fuente regional para localizar titulares nacionales antes de cambiar el plan.","pt":"Usar a fonte regional para localizar manchetes nacionais antes de mudar o plano."},"lag":"Same day to 1 year","regions":["latin-america"],"sectors":["beef","dairy","animal-health"],"confidence":65},{"id":"peru-senasa-category-causal-edge","sourceId":"peru-senasa","from":"Peru SENASA animal health: sanitary status, movement risk, disease surveillance, export access","driver":{"en":"Animal health, movement rules, and buyer-access risk","es":"Sanidad, reglas de movimiento y acceso de compradores","pt":"Sanidade, regras de movimentação e acesso de compradores"},"affects":{"en":"Movement friction, mortality risk, biosecurity spend, export eligibility, and buyer confidence","es":"Movimiento, mortalidad, bioseguridad, exportación y confianza del comprador","pt":"Movimentação, mortalidade, biossegurança, exportação e confiança do comprador"},"producerDecision":{"en":"Treat health status as market data before moving, buying, selling, or contracting livestock.","es":"Tratar sanidad como dato de mercado antes de mover, comprar, vender o contratar ganado.","pt":"Tratar sanidade como dado de mercado antes de mover, comprar, vender ou contratar gado."},"lag":"Same day to 12 weeks","regions":["latin-america"],"sectors":["animal-health","beef","dairy"],"confidence":69},{"id":"ecuador-sipa-category-causal-edge","sourceId":"ecuador-sipa","from":"Ecuador MAG SIPA: livestock prices, crop prices, production, regional supply","driver":{"en":"Regional event, policy, and local-market context","es":"Contexto regional, político y de mercado local","pt":"Contexto regional, político e de mercado local"},"affects":{"en":"Local prices, buyer behavior, public policy, logistics, input access, and producer confidence","es":"Precios locales, compradores, política, logística, insumos y confianza","pt":"Preços locais, compradores, política, logística, insumos e confiança"},"producerDecision":{"en":"Use the regional source to localize national headlines before changing the farm plan.","es":"Usar la fuente regional para localizar titulares nacionales antes de cambiar el plan.","pt":"Usar a fonte regional para localizar manchetes nacionais antes de mudar o plano."},"lag":"Same day to 1 year","regions":["latin-america"],"sectors":["beef","dairy","feed","crops"],"confidence":69},{"id":"bolivia-ine-agriculture-category-causal-edge","sourceId":"bolivia-ine-agriculture","from":"Bolivia INE agriculture statistics: livestock inventory, milk production, crop production, food prices","driver":{"en":"Structural supply and herd-cycle pressure","es":"Oferta estructural y presión del ciclo ganadero","pt":"Oferta estrutural e pressão do ciclo pecuário"},"affects":{"en":"Replacement value, retained animals, slaughter availability, feed demand, and forward supply","es":"Reposición, animales retenidos, disponibilidad de faena, alimento y oferta futura","pt":"Reposição, animais retidos, disponibilidade de abate, ração e oferta futura"},"producerDecision":{"en":"Compare the herd-cycle signal with local feed and price conditions before expanding or liquidating.","es":"Comparar el ciclo ganadero con alimento y precio local antes de expandir o liquidar.","pt":"Comparar o ciclo pecuário com ração e preço local antes de expandir ou liquidar."},"lag":"1 month to 2 years","regions":["latin-america"],"sectors":["beef","dairy","feed","crops"],"confidence":69},{"id":"costa-rica-corfoga-category-causal-edge","sourceId":"costa-rica-corfoga","from":"Costa Rica CORFOGA cattle market: cattle market, slaughter, beef chain, producer context","driver":{"en":"Regional event, policy, and local-market context","es":"Contexto regional, político y de mercado local","pt":"Contexto regional, político e de mercado local"},"affects":{"en":"Local prices, buyer behavior, public policy, logistics, input access, and producer confidence","es":"Precios locales, compradores, política, logística, insumos y confianza","pt":"Preços locais, compradores, política, logística, insumos e confiança"},"producerDecision":{"en":"Use the regional source to localize national headlines before changing the farm plan.","es":"Usar la fuente regional para localizar titulares nacionales antes de cambiar el plan.","pt":"Usar a fonte regional para localizar manchetes nacionais antes de mudar o plano."},"lag":"Same day to 1 year","regions":["latin-america"],"sectors":["beef"],"confidence":65},{"id":"canada-canfax-category-causal-edge","sourceId":"canada-canfax","from":"Canfax cattle market reports: fed cattle price, feeder price, slaughter, feedlot margin","driver":{"en":"Local price discovery and basis movement","es":"Descubrimiento de precio local y movimiento de base","pt":"Descoberta de preço local e movimento de base"},"affects":{"en":"Sale timing, buyer leverage, class spreads, hedge urgency, and cash-flow planning","es":"Momento de venta, poder del comprador, diferenciales, cobertura y caja","pt":"Momento de venda, poder do comprador, diferenciais, hedge e caixa"},"producerDecision":{"en":"Use the local price source as a bid check before selling, holding, hedging, or buying replacements.","es":"Usar la fuente local de precios como control antes de vender, retener, cubrir o comprar reposición.","pt":"Usar a fonte local de preços como controle antes de vender, reter, fazer hedge ou comprar reposição."},"lag":"Same day to 2 weeks","regions":["north-america"],"sectors":["beef","feed"],"confidence":65},{"id":"canada-cgic-grain-category-causal-edge","sourceId":"canada-cgic-grain","from":"Canadian Grain Commission: grain deliveries, exports, stocks, quality","driver":{"en":"Crop balance, yield risk, and input allocation","es":"Balance agrícola, rendimiento e insumos","pt":"Balanço agrícola, produtividade e insumos"},"affects":{"en":"Feed availability, hay and grain basis, planting margin, ration choices, and livestock stocking","es":"Disponibilidad de alimento, base de heno y grano, siembra, dieta y carga animal","pt":"Disponibilidade de ração, base de feno e grão, plantio, dieta e lotação"},"producerDecision":{"en":"Connect crop signals to feed procurement, planting, hedging, and stocking-rate decisions.","es":"Conectar cultivos con compra de alimento, siembra, cobertura y carga animal.","pt":"Conectar culturas com compra de ração, plantio, hedge e lotação."},"lag":"2 weeks to 18 months","regions":["north-america"],"sectors":["feed","crops","beef","dairy"],"confidence":69},{"id":"canada-cfia-animal-health-category-causal-edge","sourceId":"canada-cfia-animal-health","from":"Canadian Food Inspection Agency animal health: disease status, movement control, surveillance, border rules","driver":{"en":"Animal health, movement rules, and buyer-access risk","es":"Sanidad, reglas de movimiento y acceso de compradores","pt":"Sanidade, regras de movimentação e acesso de compradores"},"affects":{"en":"Movement friction, mortality risk, biosecurity spend, export eligibility, and buyer confidence","es":"Movimiento, mortalidad, bioseguridad, exportación y confianza del comprador","pt":"Movimentação, mortalidade, biossegurança, exportação e confiança do comprador"},"producerDecision":{"en":"Treat health status as market data before moving, buying, selling, or contracting livestock.","es":"Tratar sanidad como dato de mercado antes de mover, comprar, vender o contratar ganado.","pt":"Tratar sanidade como dado de mercado antes de mover, comprar, vender ou contratar gado."},"lag":"Same day to 12 weeks","regions":["north-america"],"sectors":["animal-health","beef","dairy"],"confidence":69},{"id":"france-agreste-category-causal-edge","sourceId":"france-agreste","from":"France Agreste agriculture statistics: cattle inventory, milk production, slaughter, crop output","driver":{"en":"Structural supply and herd-cycle pressure","es":"Oferta estructural y presión del ciclo ganadero","pt":"Oferta estrutural e pressão do ciclo pecuário"},"affects":{"en":"Replacement value, retained animals, slaughter availability, feed demand, and forward supply","es":"Reposición, animales retenidos, disponibilidad de faena, alimento y oferta futura","pt":"Reposição, animais retidos, disponibilidade de abate, ração e oferta futura"},"producerDecision":{"en":"Compare the herd-cycle signal with local feed and price conditions before expanding or liquidating.","es":"Comparar el ciclo ganadero con alimento y precio local antes de expandir o liquidar.","pt":"Comparar o ciclo pecuário com ração e preço local antes de expandir ou liquidar."},"lag":"1 month to 2 years","regions":["europe"],"sectors":["beef","dairy","feed","crops"],"confidence":69},{"id":"germany-ble-market-category-causal-edge","sourceId":"germany-ble-market","from":"Germany BLE market information: livestock prices, milk prices, crop prices, feed prices","driver":{"en":"Local price discovery and basis movement","es":"Descubrimiento de precio local y movimiento de base","pt":"Descoberta de preço local e movimento de base"},"affects":{"en":"Sale timing, buyer leverage, class spreads, hedge urgency, and cash-flow planning","es":"Momento de venta, poder del comprador, diferenciales, cobertura y caja","pt":"Momento de venda, poder do comprador, diferenciais, hedge e caixa"},"producerDecision":{"en":"Use the local price source as a bid check before selling, holding, hedging, or buying replacements.","es":"Usar la fuente local de precios como control antes de vender, retener, cubrir o comprar reposición.","pt":"Usar a fonte local de preços como controle antes de vender, reter, fazer hedge ou comprar reposição."},"lag":"Same day to 2 weeks","regions":["europe"],"sectors":["beef","dairy","feed","crops"],"confidence":69},{"id":"germany-destatis-agriculture-category-causal-edge","sourceId":"germany-destatis-agriculture","from":"Destatis agriculture statistics: cattle inventory, milk production, slaughter, crop output","driver":{"en":"Structural supply and herd-cycle pressure","es":"Oferta estructural y presión del ciclo ganadero","pt":"Oferta estrutural e pressão do ciclo pecuário"},"affects":{"en":"Replacement value, retained animals, slaughter availability, feed demand, and forward supply","es":"Reposición, animales retenidos, disponibilidad de faena, alimento y oferta futura","pt":"Reposição, animais retidos, disponibilidade de abate, ração e oferta futura"},"producerDecision":{"en":"Compare the herd-cycle signal with local feed and price conditions before expanding or liquidating.","es":"Comparar el ciclo ganadero con alimento y precio local antes de expandir o liquidar.","pt":"Comparar o ciclo pecuário com ração e preço local antes de expandir ou liquidar."},"lag":"1 month to 2 years","regions":["europe"],"sectors":["beef","dairy","feed","crops"],"confidence":69},{"id":"ireland-cso-agriculture-category-causal-edge","sourceId":"ireland-cso-agriculture","from":"Ireland CSO agriculture data: cattle inventory, milk production, slaughter, farm income","driver":{"en":"Structural supply and herd-cycle pressure","es":"Oferta estructural y presión del ciclo ganadero","pt":"Oferta estrutural e pressão do ciclo pecuário"},"affects":{"en":"Replacement value, retained animals, slaughter availability, feed demand, and forward supply","es":"Reposición, animales retenidos, disponibilidad de faena, alimento y oferta futura","pt":"Reposição, animais retidos, disponibilidade de abate, ração e oferta futura"},"producerDecision":{"en":"Compare the herd-cycle signal with local feed and price conditions before expanding or liquidating.","es":"Comparar el ciclo ganadero con alimento y precio local antes de expandir o liquidar.","pt":"Comparar o ciclo pecuário com ração e preço local antes de expandir ou liquidar."},"lag":"1 month to 2 years","regions":["europe"],"sectors":["beef","dairy","feed","crops"],"confidence":69},{"id":"ireland-dafm-category-causal-edge","sourceId":"ireland-dafm","from":"Ireland DAFM agriculture and market data: beef market, dairy market, animal health, farm schemes","driver":{"en":"Regional event, policy, and local-market context","es":"Contexto regional, político y de mercado local","pt":"Contexto regional, político e de mercado local"},"affects":{"en":"Local prices, buyer behavior, public policy, logistics, input access, and producer confidence","es":"Precios locales, compradores, política, logística, insumos y confianza","pt":"Preços locais, compradores, política, logística, insumos e confiança"},"producerDecision":{"en":"Use the regional source to localize national headlines before changing the farm plan.","es":"Usar la fuente regional para localizar titulares nacionales antes de cambiar el plan.","pt":"Usar a fonte regional para localizar manchetes nacionais antes de mudar o plano."},"lag":"Same day to 1 year","regions":["europe"],"sectors":["beef","dairy","feed","animal-health"],"confidence":69},{"id":"spain-mapa-statistics-category-causal-edge","sourceId":"spain-mapa-statistics","from":"Spain MAPA agriculture statistics: cattle prices, milk prices, feed prices, livestock production","driver":{"en":"Regional event, policy, and local-market context","es":"Contexto regional, político y de mercado local","pt":"Contexto regional, político e de mercado local"},"affects":{"en":"Local prices, buyer behavior, public policy, logistics, input access, and producer confidence","es":"Precios locales, compradores, política, logística, insumos y confianza","pt":"Preços locais, compradores, política, logística, insumos e confiança"},"producerDecision":{"en":"Use the regional source to localize national headlines before changing the farm plan.","es":"Usar la fuente regional para localizar titulares nacionales antes de cambiar el plan.","pt":"Usar a fonte regional para localizar manchetes nacionais antes de mudar o plano."},"lag":"Same day to 1 year","regions":["europe"],"sectors":["beef","dairy","feed","crops"],"confidence":69},{"id":"italy-ismea-category-causal-edge","sourceId":"italy-ismea","from":"Italy ISMEA markets: livestock prices, milk prices, crop prices, input costs","driver":{"en":"Local price discovery and basis movement","es":"Descubrimiento de precio local y movimiento de base","pt":"Descoberta de preço local e movimento de base"},"affects":{"en":"Sale timing, buyer leverage, class spreads, hedge urgency, and cash-flow planning","es":"Momento de venta, poder del comprador, diferenciales, cobertura y caja","pt":"Momento de venda, poder do comprador, diferenciais, hedge e caixa"},"producerDecision":{"en":"Use the local price source as a bid check before selling, holding, hedging, or buying replacements.","es":"Usar la fuente local de precios como control antes de vender, retener, cubrir o comprar reposición.","pt":"Usar a fonte local de preços como controle antes de vender, reter, fazer hedge ou comprar reposição."},"lag":"Same day to 2 weeks","regions":["europe"],"sectors":["beef","dairy","feed","crops"],"confidence":69},{"id":"netherlands-cbs-agriculture-category-causal-edge","sourceId":"netherlands-cbs-agriculture","from":"Statistics Netherlands agriculture: livestock inventory, milk production, trade, environmental pressure","driver":{"en":"Structural supply and herd-cycle pressure","es":"Oferta estructural y presión del ciclo ganadero","pt":"Oferta estrutural e pressão do ciclo pecuário"},"affects":{"en":"Replacement value, retained animals, slaughter availability, feed demand, and forward supply","es":"Reposición, animales retenidos, disponibilidad de faena, alimento y oferta futura","pt":"Reposição, animais retidos, disponibilidade de abate, ração e oferta futura"},"producerDecision":{"en":"Compare the herd-cycle signal with local feed and price conditions before expanding or liquidating.","es":"Comparar el ciclo ganadero con alimento y precio local antes de expandir o liquidar.","pt":"Comparar o ciclo pecuário com ração e preço local antes de expandir ou liquidar."},"lag":"1 month to 2 years","regions":["europe"],"sectors":["beef","dairy","feed","crops"],"confidence":69},{"id":"eu-jrc-mars-category-causal-edge","sourceId":"eu-jrc-mars","from":"EU JRC MARS crop monitoring: crop yield, agrometeorology, weather anomaly, feed crop risk","driver":{"en":"Crop balance, yield risk, and input allocation","es":"Balance agrícola, rendimiento e insumos","pt":"Balanço agrícola, produtividade e insumos"},"affects":{"en":"Feed availability, hay and grain basis, planting margin, ration choices, and livestock stocking","es":"Disponibilidad de alimento, base de heno y grano, siembra, dieta y carga animal","pt":"Disponibilidade de ração, base de feno e grão, plantio, dieta e lotação"},"producerDecision":{"en":"Connect crop signals to feed procurement, planting, hedging, and stocking-rate decisions.","es":"Conectar cultivos con compra de alimento, siembra, cobertura y carga animal.","pt":"Conectar culturas com compra de ração, plantio, hedge e lotação."},"lag":"2 weeks to 18 months","regions":["europe","africa-asia"],"sectors":["feed","crops","beef","dairy"],"confidence":69},{"id":"efsa-animal-health-category-causal-edge","sourceId":"efsa-animal-health","from":"EFSA animal health outputs: disease risk, surveillance, food-chain risk, biosecurity","driver":{"en":"Animal health, movement rules, and buyer-access risk","es":"Sanidad, reglas de movimiento y acceso de compradores","pt":"Sanidade, regras de movimentação e acesso de compradores"},"affects":{"en":"Movement friction, mortality risk, biosecurity spend, export eligibility, and buyer confidence","es":"Movimiento, mortalidad, bioseguridad, exportación y confianza del comprador","pt":"Movimentação, mortalidade, biossegurança, exportação e confiança do comprador"},"producerDecision":{"en":"Treat health status as market data before moving, buying, selling, or contracting livestock.","es":"Tratar sanidad como dato de mercado antes de mover, comprar, vender o contratar ganado.","pt":"Tratar sanidade como dado de mercado antes de mover, comprar, vender ou contratar gado."},"lag":"Same day to 12 weeks","regions":["europe"],"sectors":["animal-health","beef","dairy"],"confidence":61},{"id":"india-dahd-category-causal-edge","sourceId":"india-dahd","from":"India DAHD animal husbandry statistics: milk production, livestock census, meat production, animal health","driver":{"en":"Structural supply and herd-cycle pressure","es":"Oferta estructural y presión del ciclo ganadero","pt":"Oferta estrutural e pressão do ciclo pecuário"},"affects":{"en":"Replacement value, retained animals, slaughter availability, feed demand, and forward supply","es":"Reposición, animales retenidos, disponibilidad de faena, alimento y oferta futura","pt":"Reposição, animais retidos, disponibilidade de abate, ração e oferta futura"},"producerDecision":{"en":"Compare the herd-cycle signal with local feed and price conditions before expanding or liquidating.","es":"Comparar el ciclo ganadero con alimento y precio local antes de expandir o liquidar.","pt":"Comparar o ciclo pecuário com ração e preço local antes de expandir ou liquidar."},"lag":"1 month to 2 years","regions":["africa-asia"],"sectors":["dairy","beef","feed","animal-health"],"confidence":69},{"id":"india-nddb-category-causal-edge","sourceId":"india-nddb","from":"India National Dairy Development Board: milk production, dairy development, cattle feed, cooperatives","driver":{"en":"Milk margin, product demand, and dairy-beef supply","es":"Margen lechero, demanda de productos y carne lechera","pt":"Margem do leite, demanda de produtos e carne leiteira"},"affects":{"en":"Ration spend, milk output, cull timing, replacement appetite, and beef supply from dairy herds","es":"Dieta, leche, descarte, reposición y oferta de carne lechera","pt":"Dieta, leite, descarte, reposição e oferta de carne leiteira"},"producerDecision":{"en":"Watch milk-feed spread before changing ration, culling, replacement, or dairy-beef decisions.","es":"Vigilar leche-alimento antes de cambiar dieta, descarte, reposición o carne lechera.","pt":"Observar leite-ração antes de mudar dieta, descarte, reposição ou carne leiteira."},"lag":"2 weeks to 12 months","regions":["africa-asia"],"sectors":["dairy","feed"],"confidence":69},{"id":"india-agmarknet-category-causal-edge","sourceId":"india-agmarknet","from":"India Agmarknet market prices: market prices, feed grains, oilseeds, regional supply","driver":{"en":"Local price discovery and basis movement","es":"Descubrimiento de precio local y movimiento de base","pt":"Descoberta de preço local e movimento de base"},"affects":{"en":"Sale timing, buyer leverage, class spreads, hedge urgency, and cash-flow planning","es":"Momento de venta, poder del comprador, diferenciales, cobertura y caja","pt":"Momento de venda, poder do comprador, diferenciais, hedge e caixa"},"producerDecision":{"en":"Use the local price source as a bid check before selling, holding, hedging, or buying replacements.","es":"Usar la fuente local de precios como control antes de vender, retener, cubrir o comprar reposición.","pt":"Usar a fonte local de preços como controle antes de vender, reter, fazer hedge ou comprar reposição."},"lag":"Same day to 2 weeks","regions":["africa-asia"],"sectors":["feed","crops","dairy"],"confidence":69},{"id":"india-imd-category-causal-edge","sourceId":"india-imd","from":"India Meteorological Department: monsoon, heatwave, rainfall, drought","driver":{"en":"Weather, forage, heat, and water stress","es":"Clima, forraje, calor y estrés hídrico","pt":"Clima, pasto, calor e estresse hídrico"},"affects":{"en":"Pasture days, stocking rate, milk yield, crop yield, hay demand, and forced-sale risk","es":"Días de pasto, carga animal, leche, rendimiento, heno y venta forzada","pt":"Dias de pasto, lotação, leite, produtividade, feno e venda forçada"},"producerDecision":{"en":"Translate weather into forage days, water checks, feed coverage, and sale-or-hold thresholds.","es":"Convertir clima en días de forraje, agua, cobertura de alimento y umbral de venta.","pt":"Converter clima em dias de pasto, água, cobertura de ração e limite de venda."},"lag":"0 days to 16 weeks","regions":["africa-asia"],"sectors":["beef","dairy","feed","crops"],"confidence":69},{"id":"india-apeda-category-causal-edge","sourceId":"india-apeda","from":"India APEDA export data: meat exports, dairy exports, cereal exports, destination demand","driver":{"en":"Export pull, border access, and destination risk","es":"Demanda exportadora, frontera y riesgo de destino","pt":"Demanda exportadora, fronteira e risco de destino"},"affects":{"en":"Processor bids, local basis, cull demand, feed-grain flows, and market-access premiums","es":"Ofertas frigoríficas, base local, descarte, granos y primas de acceso","pt":"Preços de frigorífico, base local, descarte, grãos e prêmios de acesso"},"producerDecision":{"en":"Price cattle, milk, crops, and feed with destination exposure before committing volume.","es":"Valuar ganado, leche, cultivos y alimento con exposición de destino antes de comprometer volumen.","pt":"Precificar gado, leite, culturas e ração com exposição de destino antes de comprometer volume."},"lag":"Same week to 6 months","regions":["africa-asia"],"sectors":["beef","dairy","feed","crops"],"confidence":69},{"id":"china-nbs-agriculture-category-causal-edge","sourceId":"china-nbs-agriculture","from":"China National Bureau of Statistics agriculture: meat production, milk production, grain output, rural prices","driver":{"en":"Structural supply and herd-cycle pressure","es":"Oferta estructural y presión del ciclo ganadero","pt":"Oferta estrutural e pressão do ciclo pecuário"},"affects":{"en":"Replacement value, retained animals, slaughter availability, feed demand, and forward supply","es":"Reposición, animales retenidos, disponibilidad de faena, alimento y oferta futura","pt":"Reposição, animais retidos, disponibilidade de abate, ração e oferta futura"},"producerDecision":{"en":"Compare the herd-cycle signal with local feed and price conditions before expanding or liquidating.","es":"Comparar el ciclo ganadero con alimento y precio local antes de expandir o liquidar.","pt":"Comparar o ciclo pecuário com ração e preço local antes de expandir ou liquidar."},"lag":"1 month to 2 years","regions":["africa-asia"],"sectors":["beef","dairy","feed","crops"],"confidence":69},{"id":"china-mara-category-causal-edge","sourceId":"china-mara","from":"China MARA market information: livestock prices, feed prices, policy, veterinary notices","driver":{"en":"Regional event, policy, and local-market context","es":"Contexto regional, político y de mercado local","pt":"Contexto regional, político e de mercado local"},"affects":{"en":"Local prices, buyer behavior, public policy, logistics, input access, and producer confidence","es":"Precios locales, compradores, política, logística, insumos y confianza","pt":"Preços locais, compradores, política, logística, insumos e confiança"},"producerDecision":{"en":"Use the regional source to localize national headlines before changing the farm plan.","es":"Usar la fuente regional para localizar titulares nacionales antes de cambiar el plan.","pt":"Usar a fonte regional para localizar manchetes nacionais antes de mudar o plano."},"lag":"Same day to 1 year","regions":["africa-asia"],"sectors":["beef","dairy","feed","crops","animal-health"],"confidence":69},{"id":"china-customs-category-causal-edge","sourceId":"china-customs","from":"China customs trade statistics: beef imports, dairy imports, soy imports, corn imports","driver":{"en":"Export pull, border access, and destination risk","es":"Demanda exportadora, frontera y riesgo de destino","pt":"Demanda exportadora, fronteira e risco de destino"},"affects":{"en":"Processor bids, local basis, cull demand, feed-grain flows, and market-access premiums","es":"Ofertas frigoríficas, base local, descarte, granos y primas de acceso","pt":"Preços de frigorífico, base local, descarte, grãos e prêmios de acesso"},"producerDecision":{"en":"Price cattle, milk, crops, and feed with destination exposure before committing volume.","es":"Valuar ganado, leche, cultivos y alimento con exposición de destino antes de comprometer volumen.","pt":"Precificar gado, leite, culturas e ração com exposição de destino antes de comprometer volume."},"lag":"Same week to 6 months","regions":["africa-asia"],"sectors":["beef","dairy","feed","crops"],"confidence":69},{"id":"japan-maff-category-causal-edge","sourceId":"japan-maff","from":"Japan MAFF agriculture statistics: beef market, dairy market, feed supply, policy","driver":{"en":"Regional event, policy, and local-market context","es":"Contexto regional, político y de mercado local","pt":"Contexto regional, político e de mercado local"},"affects":{"en":"Local prices, buyer behavior, public policy, logistics, input access, and producer confidence","es":"Precios locales, compradores, política, logística, insumos y confianza","pt":"Preços locais, compradores, política, logística, insumos e confiança"},"producerDecision":{"en":"Use the regional source to localize national headlines before changing the farm plan.","es":"Usar la fuente regional para localizar titulares nacionales antes de cambiar el plan.","pt":"Usar a fonte regional para localizar manchetes nacionais antes de mudar o plano."},"lag":"Same day to 1 year","regions":["africa-asia"],"sectors":["beef","dairy","feed","crops"],"confidence":69},{"id":"japan-alic-category-causal-edge","sourceId":"japan-alic","from":"Japan ALIC livestock information: beef prices, dairy prices, imports, demand","driver":{"en":"Local price discovery and basis movement","es":"Descubrimiento de precio local y movimiento de base","pt":"Descoberta de preço local e movimento de base"},"affects":{"en":"Sale timing, buyer leverage, class spreads, hedge urgency, and cash-flow planning","es":"Momento de venta, poder del comprador, diferenciales, cobertura y caja","pt":"Momento de venda, poder do comprador, diferenciais, hedge e caixa"},"producerDecision":{"en":"Use the local price source as a bid check before selling, holding, hedging, or buying replacements.","es":"Usar la fuente local de precios como control antes de vender, retener, cubrir o comprar reposición.","pt":"Usar a fonte local de preços como controle antes de vender, reter, fazer hedge ou comprar reposição."},"lag":"Same day to 2 weeks","regions":["africa-asia"],"sectors":["beef","dairy","feed"],"confidence":69},{"id":"south-korea-krei-category-causal-edge","sourceId":"south-korea-krei","from":"Korea Rural Economic Institute: livestock outlook, dairy outlook, imports, feed demand","driver":{"en":"Regional event, policy, and local-market context","es":"Contexto regional, político y de mercado local","pt":"Contexto regional, político e de mercado local"},"affects":{"en":"Local prices, buyer behavior, public policy, logistics, input access, and producer confidence","es":"Precios locales, compradores, política, logística, insumos y confianza","pt":"Preços locais, compradores, política, logística, insumos e confiança"},"producerDecision":{"en":"Use the regional source to localize national headlines before changing the farm plan.","es":"Usar la fuente regional para localizar titulares nacionales antes de cambiar el plan.","pt":"Usar a fonte regional para localizar manchetes nacionais antes de mudar o plano."},"lag":"Same day to 1 year","regions":["africa-asia"],"sectors":["beef","dairy","feed","crops"],"confidence":61},{"id":"indonesia-bps-agriculture-category-causal-edge","sourceId":"indonesia-bps-agriculture","from":"Indonesia BPS agriculture statistics: livestock inventory, crop production, food prices, trade","driver":{"en":"Structural supply and herd-cycle pressure","es":"Oferta estructural y presión del ciclo ganadero","pt":"Oferta estrutural e pressão do ciclo pecuário"},"affects":{"en":"Replacement value, retained animals, slaughter availability, feed demand, and forward supply","es":"Reposición, animales retenidos, disponibilidad de faena, alimento y oferta futura","pt":"Reposição, animais retidos, disponibilidade de abate, ração e oferta futura"},"producerDecision":{"en":"Compare the herd-cycle signal with local feed and price conditions before expanding or liquidating.","es":"Comparar el ciclo ganadero con alimento y precio local antes de expandir o liquidar.","pt":"Comparar o ciclo pecuário com ração e preço local antes de expandir ou liquidar."},"lag":"1 month to 2 years","regions":["africa-asia"],"sectors":["beef","dairy","feed","crops"],"confidence":69},{"id":"indonesia-bmkg-category-causal-edge","sourceId":"indonesia-bmkg","from":"Indonesia BMKG climate and weather: rainfall, drought, flood, climate outlook","driver":{"en":"Weather, forage, heat, and water stress","es":"Clima, forraje, calor y estrés hídrico","pt":"Clima, pasto, calor e estresse hídrico"},"affects":{"en":"Pasture days, stocking rate, milk yield, crop yield, hay demand, and forced-sale risk","es":"Días de pasto, carga animal, leche, rendimiento, heno y venta forzada","pt":"Dias de pasto, lotação, leite, produtividade, feno e venda forçada"},"producerDecision":{"en":"Translate weather into forage days, water checks, feed coverage, and sale-or-hold thresholds.","es":"Convertir clima en días de forraje, agua, cobertura de alimento y umbral de venta.","pt":"Converter clima em dias de pasto, água, cobertura de ração e limite de venda."},"lag":"0 days to 16 weeks","regions":["africa-asia"],"sectors":["beef","dairy","feed","crops"],"confidence":69},{"id":"thailand-oae-category-causal-edge","sourceId":"thailand-oae","from":"Thailand Office of Agricultural Economics: livestock prices, crop prices, farm income, production","driver":{"en":"Regional event, policy, and local-market context","es":"Contexto regional, político y de mercado local","pt":"Contexto regional, político e de mercado local"},"affects":{"en":"Local prices, buyer behavior, public policy, logistics, input access, and producer confidence","es":"Precios locales, compradores, política, logística, insumos y confianza","pt":"Preços locais, compradores, política, logística, insumos e confiança"},"producerDecision":{"en":"Use the regional source to localize national headlines before changing the farm plan.","es":"Usar la fuente regional para localizar titulares nacionales antes de cambiar el plan.","pt":"Usar a fonte regional para localizar manchetes nacionais antes de mudar o plano."},"lag":"Same day to 1 year","regions":["africa-asia"],"sectors":["beef","dairy","feed","crops"],"confidence":69},{"id":"philippines-psa-agriculture-category-causal-edge","sourceId":"philippines-psa-agriculture","from":"Philippines PSA agriculture statistics: livestock inventory, farm prices, crop production, food prices","driver":{"en":"Structural supply and herd-cycle pressure","es":"Oferta estructural y presión del ciclo ganadero","pt":"Oferta estrutural e pressão do ciclo pecuário"},"affects":{"en":"Replacement value, retained animals, slaughter availability, feed demand, and forward supply","es":"Reposición, animales retenidos, disponibilidad de faena, alimento y oferta futura","pt":"Reposição, animais retidos, disponibilidade de abate, ração e oferta futura"},"producerDecision":{"en":"Compare the herd-cycle signal with local feed and price conditions before expanding or liquidating.","es":"Comparar el ciclo ganadero con alimento y precio local antes de expandir o liquidar.","pt":"Comparar o ciclo pecuário com ração e preço local antes de expandir ou liquidar."},"lag":"1 month to 2 years","regions":["africa-asia"],"sectors":["beef","dairy","feed","crops"],"confidence":69},{"id":"south-africa-dalrrd-category-causal-edge","sourceId":"south-africa-dalrrd","from":"South Africa DALRRD statistics: livestock market, dairy market, crop market, animal health","driver":{"en":"Regional event, policy, and local-market context","es":"Contexto regional, político y de mercado local","pt":"Contexto regional, político e de mercado local"},"affects":{"en":"Local prices, buyer behavior, public policy, logistics, input access, and producer confidence","es":"Precios locales, compradores, política, logística, insumos y confianza","pt":"Preços locais, compradores, política, logística, insumos e confiança"},"producerDecision":{"en":"Use the regional source to localize national headlines before changing the farm plan.","es":"Usar la fuente regional para localizar titulares nacionales antes de cambiar el plan.","pt":"Usar a fonte regional para localizar manchetes nacionais antes de mudar o plano."},"lag":"Same day to 1 year","regions":["africa-asia"],"sectors":["beef","dairy","feed","crops","animal-health"],"confidence":69},{"id":"south-africa-namc-category-causal-edge","sourceId":"south-africa-namc","from":"South Africa NAMC market intelligence: market outlook, food prices, input costs, trade","driver":{"en":"Regional event, policy, and local-market context","es":"Contexto regional, político y de mercado local","pt":"Contexto regional, político e de mercado local"},"affects":{"en":"Local prices, buyer behavior, public policy, logistics, input access, and producer confidence","es":"Precios locales, compradores, política, logística, insumos y confianza","pt":"Preços locais, compradores, política, logística, insumos e confiança"},"producerDecision":{"en":"Use the regional source to localize national headlines before changing the farm plan.","es":"Usar la fuente regional para localizar titulares nacionales antes de cambiar el plan.","pt":"Usar a fonte regional para localizar manchetes nacionais antes de mudar o plano."},"lag":"Same day to 1 year","regions":["africa-asia"],"sectors":["beef","dairy","feed","crops"],"confidence":61},{"id":"south-africa-sagis-category-causal-edge","sourceId":"south-africa-sagis","from":"South African Grain Information Service: grain stocks, corn deliveries, imports, feed supply","driver":{"en":"Crop balance, yield risk, and input allocation","es":"Balance agrícola, rendimiento e insumos","pt":"Balanço agrícola, produtividade e insumos"},"affects":{"en":"Feed availability, hay and grain basis, planting margin, ration choices, and livestock stocking","es":"Disponibilidad de alimento, base de heno y grano, siembra, dieta y carga animal","pt":"Disponibilidade de ração, base de feno e grão, plantio, dieta e lotação"},"producerDecision":{"en":"Connect crop signals to feed procurement, planting, hedging, and stocking-rate decisions.","es":"Conectar cultivos con compra de alimento, siembra, cobertura y carga animal.","pt":"Conectar culturas com compra de ração, plantio, hedge e lotação."},"lag":"2 weeks to 18 months","regions":["africa-asia"],"sectors":["feed","crops","beef","dairy"],"confidence":65},{"id":"kenya-knbs-agriculture-category-causal-edge","sourceId":"kenya-knbs-agriculture","from":"Kenya KNBS agriculture statistics: livestock production, milk production, food prices, crop production","driver":{"en":"Structural supply and herd-cycle pressure","es":"Oferta estructural y presión del ciclo ganadero","pt":"Oferta estrutural e pressão do ciclo pecuário"},"affects":{"en":"Replacement value, retained animals, slaughter availability, feed demand, and forward supply","es":"Reposición, animales retenidos, disponibilidad de faena, alimento y oferta futura","pt":"Reposição, animais retidos, disponibilidade de abate, ração e oferta futura"},"producerDecision":{"en":"Compare the herd-cycle signal with local feed and price conditions before expanding or liquidating.","es":"Comparar el ciclo ganadero con alimento y precio local antes de expandir o liquidar.","pt":"Comparar o ciclo pecuário com ração e preço local antes de expandir ou liquidar."},"lag":"1 month to 2 years","regions":["africa-asia"],"sectors":["beef","dairy","feed","crops"],"confidence":69},{"id":"kenya-ndma-drought-category-causal-edge","sourceId":"kenya-ndma-drought","from":"Kenya NDMA drought early warning: drought, forage, water, livestock condition","driver":{"en":"Weather, forage, heat, and water stress","es":"Clima, forraje, calor y estrés hídrico","pt":"Clima, pasto, calor e estresse hídrico"},"affects":{"en":"Pasture days, stocking rate, milk yield, crop yield, hay demand, and forced-sale risk","es":"Días de pasto, carga animal, leche, rendimiento, heno y venta forzada","pt":"Dias de pasto, lotação, leite, produtividade, feno e venda forçada"},"producerDecision":{"en":"Translate weather into forage days, water checks, feed coverage, and sale-or-hold thresholds.","es":"Convertir clima en días de forraje, agua, cobertura de alimento y umbral de venta.","pt":"Converter clima em dias de pasto, água, cobertura de ração e limite de venda."},"lag":"0 days to 16 weeks","regions":["africa-asia"],"sectors":["beef","dairy","feed"],"confidence":69},{"id":"ethiopia-statistics-agriculture-category-causal-edge","sourceId":"ethiopia-statistics-agriculture","from":"Ethiopia Statistical Service agriculture: livestock inventory, milk production, crop production, food prices","driver":{"en":"Structural supply and herd-cycle pressure","es":"Oferta estructural y presión del ciclo ganadero","pt":"Oferta estrutural e pressão do ciclo pecuário"},"affects":{"en":"Replacement value, retained animals, slaughter availability, feed demand, and forward supply","es":"Reposición, animales retenidos, disponibilidad de faena, alimento y oferta futura","pt":"Reposição, animais retidos, disponibilidade de abate, ração e oferta futura"},"producerDecision":{"en":"Compare the herd-cycle signal with local feed and price conditions before expanding or liquidating.","es":"Comparar el ciclo ganadero con alimento y precio local antes de expandir o liquidar.","pt":"Comparar o ciclo pecuário com ração e preço local antes de expandir ou liquidar."},"lag":"1 month to 2 years","regions":["africa-asia"],"sectors":["beef","dairy","feed","crops"],"confidence":69},{"id":"nigeria-nbs-agriculture-category-causal-edge","sourceId":"nigeria-nbs-agriculture","from":"Nigeria NBS agriculture statistics: food prices, livestock, crop output, inflation","driver":{"en":"Structural supply and herd-cycle pressure","es":"Oferta estructural y presión del ciclo ganadero","pt":"Oferta estrutural e pressão do ciclo pecuário"},"affects":{"en":"Replacement value, retained animals, slaughter availability, feed demand, and forward supply","es":"Reposición, animales retenidos, disponibilidad de faena, alimento y oferta futura","pt":"Reposição, animais retidos, disponibilidade de abate, ração e oferta futura"},"producerDecision":{"en":"Compare the herd-cycle signal with local feed and price conditions before expanding or liquidating.","es":"Comparar el ciclo ganadero con alimento y precio local antes de expandir o liquidar.","pt":"Comparar o ciclo pecuário com ração e preço local antes de expandir ou liquidar."},"lag":"1 month to 2 years","regions":["africa-asia"],"sectors":["beef","dairy","feed","crops"],"confidence":69},{"id":"ipc-food-security-category-causal-edge","sourceId":"ipc-food-security","from":"IPC food security classification: food security phase, livelihood stress, market access, regional risk","driver":{"en":"Regional event, policy, and local-market context","es":"Contexto regional, político y de mercado local","pt":"Contexto regional, político e de mercado local"},"affects":{"en":"Local prices, buyer behavior, public policy, logistics, input access, and producer confidence","es":"Precios locales, compradores, política, logística, insumos y confianza","pt":"Preços locais, compradores, política, logística, insumos e confiança"},"producerDecision":{"en":"Use the regional source to localize national headlines before changing the farm plan.","es":"Usar la fuente regional para localizar titulares nacionales antes de cambiar el plan.","pt":"Usar a fonte regional para localizar manchetes nacionais antes de mudar o plano."},"lag":"Same day to 1 year","regions":["africa-asia","latin-america"],"sectors":["beef","dairy","feed","crops"],"confidence":69},{"id":"reliefweb-agriculture-category-causal-edge","sourceId":"reliefweb-agriculture","from":"ReliefWeb agriculture and disaster reports: drought reports, flood reports, conflict disruption, food security","driver":{"en":"Regional event, policy, and local-market context","es":"Contexto regional, político y de mercado local","pt":"Contexto regional, político e de mercado local"},"affects":{"en":"Local prices, buyer behavior, public policy, logistics, input access, and producer confidence","es":"Precios locales, compradores, política, logística, insumos y confianza","pt":"Preços locais, compradores, política, logística, insumos e confiança"},"producerDecision":{"en":"Use the regional source to localize national headlines before changing the farm plan.","es":"Usar la fuente regional para localizar titulares nacionales antes de cambiar el plan.","pt":"Usar a fonte regional para localizar manchetes nacionais antes de mudar o plano."},"lag":"Same day to 1 year","regions":["north-america","latin-america","oceania","europe","africa-asia"],"sectors":["beef","dairy","feed","crops","animal-health"],"confidence":69},{"id":"fao-giews-category-causal-edge","sourceId":"fao-giews","from":"FAO GIEWS country briefs: crop prospects, food prices, imports, country risk","driver":{"en":"Regional event, policy, and local-market context","es":"Contexto regional, político y de mercado local","pt":"Contexto regional, político e de mercado local"},"affects":{"en":"Local prices, buyer behavior, public policy, logistics, input access, and producer confidence","es":"Precios locales, compradores, política, logística, insumos y confianza","pt":"Preços locais, compradores, política, logística, insumos e confiança"},"producerDecision":{"en":"Use the regional source to localize national headlines before changing the farm plan.","es":"Usar la fuente regional para localizar titulares nacionales antes de cambiar el plan.","pt":"Usar a fonte regional para localizar manchetes nacionais antes de mudar o plano."},"lag":"Same day to 1 year","regions":["north-america","latin-america","oceania","europe","africa-asia"],"sectors":["feed","crops","beef","dairy"],"confidence":69},{"id":"fao-empres-i-category-causal-edge","sourceId":"fao-empres-i","from":"FAO EMPRES-i animal disease events: animal disease events, early warning, transboundary risk, movement risk","driver":{"en":"Animal health, movement rules, and buyer-access risk","es":"Sanidad, reglas de movimiento y acceso de compradores","pt":"Sanidade, regras de movimentação e acesso de compradores"},"affects":{"en":"Movement friction, mortality risk, biosecurity spend, export eligibility, and buyer confidence","es":"Movimiento, mortalidad, bioseguridad, exportación y confianza del comprador","pt":"Movimentação, mortalidade, biossegurança, exportação e confiança do comprador"},"producerDecision":{"en":"Treat health status as market data before moving, buying, selling, or contracting livestock.","es":"Tratar sanidad como dato de mercado antes de mover, comprar, vender o contratar ganado.","pt":"Tratar sanidade como dado de mercado antes de mover, comprar, vender ou contratar gado."},"lag":"Same day to 12 weeks","regions":["north-america","latin-america","oceania","europe","africa-asia"],"sectors":["animal-health","beef","dairy"],"confidence":69},{"id":"panama-canal-authority-category-causal-edge","sourceId":"panama-canal-authority","from":"Panama Canal Authority operations: transit restrictions, water level, vessel queues, logistics risk","driver":{"en":"Port, freight, and logistics throughput","es":"Puertos, flete y logística","pt":"Portos, frete e logística"},"affects":{"en":"Export basis, feed imports, fertilizer delivery, carcass movement, and regional price spreads","es":"Base exportadora, alimento importado, fertilizante, carcasas y diferenciales","pt":"Base exportadora, ração importada, fertilizante, carcaças e diferenciais"},"producerDecision":{"en":"Check logistics before trusting a price that depends on moving cattle, grain, dairy, or inputs.","es":"Revisar logística antes de confiar en precios que dependen de mover ganado, grano, leche o insumos.","pt":"Revisar logística antes de confiar em preços que dependem de mover gado, grão, leite ou insumos."},"lag":"Same week to 4 months","regions":["north-america","latin-america","africa-asia","europe","oceania"],"sectors":["beef","dairy","feed","crops"],"confidence":69},{"id":"suez-canal-authority-category-causal-edge","sourceId":"suez-canal-authority","from":"Suez Canal Authority traffic statistics: canal traffic, route disruption, freight risk, tonnage","driver":{"en":"Port, freight, and logistics throughput","es":"Puertos, flete y logística","pt":"Portos, frete e logística"},"affects":{"en":"Export basis, feed imports, fertilizer delivery, carcass movement, and regional price spreads","es":"Base exportadora, alimento importado, fertilizante, carcasas y diferenciales","pt":"Base exportadora, ração importada, fertilizante, carcaças e diferenciais"},"producerDecision":{"en":"Check logistics before trusting a price that depends on moving cattle, grain, dairy, or inputs.","es":"Revisar logística antes de confiar en precios que dependen de mover ganado, grano, leche o insumos.","pt":"Revisar logística antes de confiar em preços que dependem de mover gado, grão, leite ou insumos."},"lag":"Same week to 4 months","regions":["europe","africa-asia","oceania"],"sectors":["beef","dairy","feed","crops"],"confidence":69},{"id":"baltic-exchange-category-causal-edge","sourceId":"baltic-exchange","from":"Baltic Exchange freight indexes: dry bulk freight, grain freight, fertilizer freight, shipping cost","driver":{"en":"Port, freight, and logistics throughput","es":"Puertos, flete y logística","pt":"Portos, frete e logística"},"affects":{"en":"Export basis, feed imports, fertilizer delivery, carcass movement, and regional price spreads","es":"Base exportadora, alimento importado, fertilizante, carcasas y diferenciales","pt":"Base exportadora, ração importada, fertilizante, carcaças e diferenciais"},"producerDecision":{"en":"Check logistics before trusting a price that depends on moving cattle, grain, dairy, or inputs.","es":"Revisar logística antes de confiar en precios que dependen de mover ganado, grano, leche o insumos.","pt":"Revisar logística antes de confiar em preços que dependem de mover gado, grão, leite ou insumos."},"lag":"Same week to 4 months","regions":["north-america","latin-america","oceania","europe","africa-asia"],"sectors":["feed","crops","beef","dairy"],"confidence":63},{"id":"usda-oce-port-grain-category-causal-edge","sourceId":"usda-oce-port-grain","from":"USDA OCE grain transportation: grain transportation, rail rates, barge rates, ocean freight","driver":{"en":"Port, freight, and logistics throughput","es":"Puertos, flete y logística","pt":"Portos, frete e logística"},"affects":{"en":"Export basis, feed imports, fertilizer delivery, carcass movement, and regional price spreads","es":"Base exportadora, alimento importado, fertilizante, carcasas y diferenciales","pt":"Base exportadora, ração importada, fertilizante, carcaças e diferenciais"},"producerDecision":{"en":"Check logistics before trusting a price that depends on moving cattle, grain, dairy, or inputs.","es":"Revisar logística antes de confiar en precios que dependen de mover ganado, grano, leche o insumos.","pt":"Revisar logística antes de confiar em preços que dependem de mover gado, grão, leite ou insumos."},"lag":"Same week to 4 months","regions":["north-america"],"sectors":["feed","crops","beef","dairy"],"confidence":69}],"historicalDrivers":[{"id":"pasture-stress-to-sale-runs","driver":{"en":"Pasture stress becomes sale pressure","es":"Estrés de pasto se vuelve venta","pt":"Estresse de pasto vira venda"},"sourceIds":["us-drought-monitor","nasa-power","copernicus-cds","bom-climate","brazil-inmet","mexico-siap","gdelt-global-news"],"sectors":["beef","dairy","feed","crops"],"regions":["north-america","latin-america","oceania","europe","africa-asia"],"lookbackWindow":"30-120 days","forwardWindow":"2-16 weeks","lag":{"en":"Pasture stress usually hits feed buying first, sale runs second, and replacement prices last.","es":"El estrés de pasto suele mover primero la compra de alimento, luego las ventas y al final la reposición.","pt":"O estresse de pasto costuma mover primeiro a compra de ração, depois as vendas e por fim a reposição."},"leadingSignals":[{"en":"Soil moisture drops below seasonal median","es":"Humedad de suelo cae bajo la mediana","pt":"Umidade do solo cai abaixo da mediana"},{"en":"Pasture condition ratings deteriorate","es":"Condición de pasto se deteriora","pt":"Condição do pasto piora"},{"en":"Hay and supplement quotes firm before auction volume rises","es":"Heno y suplemento suben antes del remate","pt":"Feno e suplemento sobem antes do leilão"}],"forwardEffects":[{"en":"More calves and cull cows move earlier","es":"Más terneros y descartes salen antes","pt":"Mais bezerros e descartes saem antes"},{"en":"Replacement animals face discount risk in dry regions","es":"Reposición tiene riesgo de descuento en zonas secas","pt":"Reposição tem risco de desconto em zonas secas"},{"en":"Feed cost can erase the value of extra gain","es":"El alimento borra el valor de más ganancia","pt":"Ração apaga o valor de mais ganho"}],"producerDecision":{"en":"Move from calendar-based selling to forage-days and feed-margin selling.","es":"Pasar de venta por calendario a venta por días de forraje y margen.","pt":"Passar de venda por calendário para venda por dias de pasto e margem."},"confidence":86},{"id":"export-pull-to-local-basis","driver":{"en":"Export pull changes local basis","es":"Exportación cambia la base local","pt":"Exportação muda a base local"},"sourceIds":["usda-esr","usda-fas","un-comtrade","brazil-mapa-agrostat","comex-stat","mexico-siap","brazil-bcb-sgs","gdelt-global-news"],"sectors":["beef","dairy","feed","crops"],"regions":["north-america","latin-america","oceania","europe","africa-asia"],"lookbackWindow":"4-52 weeks","forwardWindow":"1-12 weeks","lag":{"en":"Export sales lead shipments; shipments lead customs totals; customs totals confirm structural demand.","es":"Las ventas de exportación adelantan embarques; los embarques adelantan aduana; aduana confirma demanda estructural.","pt":"Vendas de exportação antecipam embarques; embarques antecipam aduana; aduana confirma demanda estrutural."},"leadingSignals":[{"en":"Weekly sales or attaché reports change before monthly trade files","es":"Ventas semanales o reportes cambian antes de comercio mensual","pt":"Vendas semanais ou relatórios mudam antes do comércio mensal"},{"en":"Destination concentration rises","es":"Concentración de destino sube","pt":"Concentração de destino sobe"},{"en":"Currency makes local supply cheaper or dearer to importers","es":"El cambio abarata o encarece oferta local","pt":"Câmbio barateia ou encarece oferta local"}],"forwardEffects":[{"en":"Processor bids widen or narrow by export access","es":"Frigoríficos ajustan ofertas por exportación","pt":"Frigoríficos ajustam ofertas por exportação"},{"en":"Feed and crop basis shifts around ports and corridors","es":"Base de grano cambia en puertos y corredores","pt":"Base de grãos muda em portos e corredores"},{"en":"Sanitary or border events can erase the signal quickly","es":"Sanidad o frontera puede borrar la señal rápido","pt":"Sanidade ou fronteira pode apagar o sinal rápido"}],"producerDecision":{"en":"Price cattle and crops with local basis plus destination exposure, not only the national headline.","es":"Valuar ganado y cultivos con base local y exposición de destino.","pt":"Precificar gado e culturas com base local e exposição de destino."},"confidence":82},{"id":"crop-balance-to-feed-margin","driver":{"en":"Crop balance becomes feed margin","es":"Balance agrícola se vuelve margen","pt":"Balanço agrícola vira margem"},"sourceIds":["usda-wasde","usda-nass","usda-ers-feed-grains","conab","comex-stat","mexico-siap","faostat","gdelt-global-news"],"sectors":["feed","crops","beef","dairy"],"regions":["north-america","latin-america","oceania","europe","africa-asia"],"lookbackWindow":"90 days to 5 years","forwardWindow":"1-18 months","lag":{"en":"Acreage and crop condition lead production; production leads feed price; feed price leads cattle and milk margins.","es":"Área y condición del cultivo adelantan producción; producción adelanta alimento; alimento adelanta márgenes ganaderos y lecheros.","pt":"Área e condição da cultura antecipam produção; produção antecipa ração; ração antecipa margens pecuárias e leiteiras."},"leadingSignals":[{"en":"Acreage, crop progress, and soil moisture shift together","es":"Área, avance y humedad cambian juntos","pt":"Área, progresso e umidade mudam juntos"},{"en":"Balance-sheet revisions tighten ending stocks","es":"Revisiones reducen stocks finales","pt":"Revisões reduzem estoques finais"},{"en":"Rail, freight, or port pressure widens local basis","es":"Tren, flete o puerto abre base local","pt":"Trem, frete ou porto abre base local"}],"forwardEffects":[{"en":"Backgrounding and finishing margins compress","es":"Recría y engorde comprimen margen","pt":"Recria e terminação comprimem margem"},{"en":"Dairy ration spend rises before cull flow changes","es":"Dieta lechera sube antes del descarte","pt":"Dieta leiteira sobe antes do descarte"},{"en":"Crop producers may gain price opportunity while livestock producers face cost risk","es":"Agricultores ganan precio mientras ganaderos enfrentan costo","pt":"Agricultores ganham preço enquanto pecuaristas enfrentam custo"}],"producerDecision":{"en":"Use the crop balance to decide feed coverage, hay buying, grain pricing, and stocking rate.","es":"Usar balance agrícola para alimento, heno, precio de grano y carga animal.","pt":"Usar balanço agrícola para ração, feno, preço de grão e lotação."},"confidence":84},{"id":"positioning-to-hedge-margin","driver":{"en":"Futures positioning becomes hedge and margin pressure","es":"El posicionamiento de futuros se vuelve presión de cobertura y margen","pt":"Posicionamento em futuros vira pressão de hedge e margem"},"sourceIds":["cftc-cot","cme-livestock","usda-ams","world-bank-pink-sheet"],"sectors":["beef","dairy","feed","crops"],"regions":["north-america"],"lookbackWindow":"4-52 weeks","forwardWindow":"1-8 weeks","lag":{"en":"COT positioning shifts before many cash producers feel the basis move; the risk shows up later in hedge cost, feed coverage, and retained ownership.","es":"COT cambia antes de que muchos productores vean moverse la base; luego aparece en costo de cobertura, alimento y propiedad retenida.","pt":"COT muda antes de muitos produtores sentirem a base; depois aparece em custo de hedge, cobertura de ração e propriedade retida."},"leadingSignals":[{"en":"Managed money exits long cattle exposure","es":"Fondos reducen largos en ganado","pt":"Fundos reduzem posição comprada em boi"},{"en":"Corn or soybean-meal shorts cover quickly","es":"Cortos de maíz o harina de soja se cubren rápido","pt":"Vendidos em milho ou farelo se cobrem rápido"},{"en":"Open interest changes while cash bids lag","es":"Interés abierto cambia mientras el físico demora","pt":"Interesse aberto muda enquanto o físico demora"}],"forwardEffects":[{"en":"Hedge urgency rises before local bids fully reprice","es":"Urgencia de cobertura sube antes del precio local","pt":"Urgência de hedge sobe antes do preço local"},{"en":"Feed coverage becomes more valuable when feed shorts unwind","es":"Cobertura de alimento vale más cuando cortos se cierran","pt":"Cobertura de ração vale mais quando vendidos zeram"},{"en":"Retained ownership gets riskier when cattle longs liquidate","es":"Propiedad retenida tiene más riesgo cuando largos liquidan","pt":"Propriedade retida fica mais arriscada quando comprados liquidam"}],"producerDecision":{"en":"Check COT before deciding to hold unhedged weight, delay feed coverage, or assume today’s basis will still be there next month.","es":"Revisar COT antes de retener kilos sin cobertura, demorar alimento o asumir que la base actual seguirá el próximo mes.","pt":"Revisar COT antes de reter peso sem hedge, atrasar cobertura de ração ou assumir que a base atual seguirá no próximo mês."},"confidence":78},{"id":"dairy-margin-to-beef-supply","driver":{"en":"Dairy margins become beef supply","es":"Margen lechero se vuelve carne","pt":"Margem do leite vira carne"},"sourceIds":["eu-milk","gdt-events","usda-ers-dairy","usda-ams","mexico-siap","world-bank-pink-sheet","ibge-sidra","brazil-bcb-sgs","gdelt-global-news"],"sectors":["dairy","beef","feed"],"regions":["north-america","latin-america","oceania","europe","africa-asia"],"lookbackWindow":"4-26 weeks","forwardWindow":"2-20 weeks","lag":{"en":"Milk price and feed cost hit dairy margins before cull cow flow and beef supply respond.","es":"Precio de leche y alimento golpean el margen antes de que cambien descarte y oferta de carne.","pt":"Preço do leite e ração atingem a margem antes de mudar descarte e oferta de carne."},"leadingSignals":[{"en":"Milk-feed spread narrows","es":"Diferencial leche-alimento se achica","pt":"Spread leite-ração diminui"},{"en":"Dairy auction prices weaken","es":"Subastas lácteas bajan","pt":"Leilões lácteos caem"},{"en":"Feed and energy prices rise together","es":"Alimento y energía suben juntos","pt":"Ração e energia sobem juntas"}],"forwardEffects":[{"en":"Cull cows enter beef supply","es":"Vacas de descarte entran a carne","pt":"Vacas de descarte entram na carne"},{"en":"Replacement appetite weakens","es":"Apetito de reposición baja","pt":"Apetite de reposição cai"},{"en":"Milk output can fall after ration cuts","es":"La leche puede caer tras recortes de dieta","pt":"Leite pode cair após corte de dieta"}],"producerDecision":{"en":"Reprice ration, cull timing, and replacement purchases before monthly milk checks settle.","es":"Recalcular dieta, descarte y reposición antes del pago mensual.","pt":"Recalcular dieta, descarte e reposição antes do pagamento mensal."},"confidence":81},{"id":"herd-concentration-to-basis","driver":{"en":"Regional herd concentration becomes basis pressure","es":"Concentración regional del hato se vuelve presión de base","pt":"Concentração regional do rebanho vira pressão de base"},"sourceIds":["ibge-sidra","cepea-boi","mexico-siap","brazil-bcb-sgs","comex-stat"],"sectors":["beef","feed","crops"],"regions":["latin-america"],"lookbackWindow":"1-10 years","forwardWindow":"1 quarter to 2 years","lag":{"en":"Herd concentration changes local sale pressure slowly, but weather, freight, and export bids can pull that pressure into the next quarter.","es":"La concentración del hato cambia la presión local lentamente, pero clima, flete y exportación pueden adelantar el efecto al próximo trimestre.","pt":"A concentração do rebanho muda a pressão local lentamente, mas clima, frete e exportação podem puxar esse efeito para o próximo trimestre."},"leadingSignals":[{"en":"State herd share rises in export-linked regions","es":"Sube la participación del hato en estados exportadores","pt":"Sobe a participação do rebanho em estados exportadores"},{"en":"Freight or pasture pressure diverges by state","es":"Flete o pasto se separan por estado","pt":"Frete ou pasto divergem por estado"},{"en":"Local cattle basis moves before national averages","es":"La base local se mueve antes del promedio nacional","pt":"A base local se move antes da média nacional"}],"forwardEffects":[{"en":"Regional sale pressure can widen local discounts","es":"La presión regional puede ampliar descuentos locales","pt":"Pressão regional pode ampliar descontos locais"},{"en":"Export-heavy states can pull cattle away from domestic buyers","es":"Estados exportadores pueden sacar ganado del mercado interno","pt":"Estados exportadores podem puxar gado do mercado interno"},{"en":"Feed and crop corridors feel freight and pasture stress together","es":"Corredores de alimento sienten flete y pasto juntos","pt":"Corredores de ração sentem frete e pasto juntos"}],"producerDecision":{"en":"Price cattle against state-level supply, freight, pasture, and export basis before trusting the national cattle headline.","es":"Valuar ganado con oferta estatal, flete, pasto y base exportadora antes de confiar en el titular nacional.","pt":"Precificar gado com oferta estadual, frete, pasto e base exportadora antes de confiar no preço nacional."},"confidence":80},{"id":"health-alert-to-market-access","driver":{"en":"Animal-health alerts become market-access friction","es":"Alertas sanitarios se vuelven fricción de mercado","pt":"Alertas sanitários viram atrito de mercado"},"sourceIds":["woah-wahis","usda-aphis","argentina-senasa","paraguay-senacsa","australia-daff","gdelt-global-news"],"sectors":["animal-health","beef","dairy"],"regions":["north-america","latin-america","oceania","europe","africa-asia"],"lookbackWindow":"Same day to 5 years","forwardWindow":"Same day to 12 months","lag":{"en":"A disease notice can affect movement immediately, then trade access and buyer confidence over weeks or months.","es":"Un aviso sanitario puede afectar movimiento de inmediato y luego comercio y confianza por semanas o meses.","pt":"Um aviso sanitário pode afetar movimento imediatamente e depois comércio e confiança por semanas ou meses."},"leadingSignals":[{"en":"Official disease notice or surveillance update","es":"Aviso oficial o vigilancia sanitaria","pt":"Aviso oficial ou vigilância sanitária"},{"en":"Movement guidance, testing rules, or border language changes","es":"Guía de movimiento, pruebas o frontera cambia","pt":"Guia de movimentação, testes ou fronteira muda"},{"en":"Buyer discounts appear before broad price averages adjust","es":"Descuentos aparecen antes del precio promedio","pt":"Descontos aparecem antes do preço médio"}],"forwardEffects":[{"en":"Movement costs and delays rise","es":"Suben costos y demoras de movimiento","pt":"Sobem custos e atrasos de movimentação"},{"en":"Export eligibility or buyer confidence can narrow","es":"Elegibilidad exportadora o confianza puede caer","pt":"Elegibilidade exportadora ou confiança pode cair"},{"en":"Biosecurity spend becomes part of the margin calculation","es":"Bioseguridad entra al cálculo de margen","pt":"Biossegurança entra no cálculo de margem"}],"producerDecision":{"en":"Check health status before moving cattle, buying replacements, or signing export-sensitive commitments.","es":"Revisar sanidad antes de mover ganado, comprar reposición o firmar compromisos exportables.","pt":"Revisar sanidade antes de mover gado, comprar reposição ou assinar compromissos exportáveis."},"confidence":83},{"id":"credit-cost-to-retention","driver":{"en":"Credit cost changes retention and input timing","es":"Costo de crédito cambia retención e insumos","pt":"Custo de crédito muda retenção e insumos"},"sourceIds":["fred-ag-macro","imf-ifs","brazil-bcb-sgs","world-bank-wdi","bls-ag-inputs"],"sectors":["beef","dairy","feed","crops"],"regions":["north-america","latin-america","oceania","europe","africa-asia"],"lookbackWindow":"30 days to 5 years","forwardWindow":"1 month to 24 months","lag":{"en":"Interest and credit changes hit input prepay and replacements before they show up in herd-size data.","es":"Interés y crédito golpean insumos y reposición antes de aparecer en el tamaño del hato.","pt":"Juros e crédito atingem insumos e reposição antes de aparecer no tamanho do rebanho."},"leadingSignals":[{"en":"Policy rates, farm credit, or inflation move together","es":"Tasas, crédito rural o inflación se mueven juntos","pt":"Juros, crédito rural ou inflação se movem juntos"},{"en":"Replacement purchases slow even when cattle prices look attractive","es":"Reposición se frena aunque el precio parezca atractivo","pt":"Reposição freia mesmo com preço atrativo"},{"en":"Input prepay windows get shorter","es":"Ventanas de prepago de insumos se acortan","pt":"Janelas de pré-pagamento de insumos encurtam"}],"forwardEffects":[{"en":"Retained ownership becomes harder to finance","es":"Propiedad retenida se vuelve más difícil","pt":"Propriedade retida fica mais difícil"},{"en":"Crop input timing can shift acreage and feed supply","es":"Insumos cambian área y oferta de alimento","pt":"Insumos mudam área e oferta de ração"},{"en":"Dairy ration and replacement choices tighten","es":"Dieta y reposición lechera se ajustan","pt":"Dieta e reposição leiteira apertam"}],"producerDecision":{"en":"Run feed, replacement, and planting choices through a cash-flow calendar before chasing headline price.","es":"Pasar alimento, reposición y siembra por calendario de caja antes de perseguir precio.","pt":"Passar ração, reposição e plantio por calendário de caixa antes de perseguir preço."},"confidence":79},{"id":"logistics-to-local-basis","driver":{"en":"Logistics shocks become local basis gaps","es":"Choques logísticos se vuelven brechas de base","pt":"Choques logísticos viram gaps de base"},"sourceIds":["eia-fuel","un-comtrade","brazil-mapa-agrostat","comex-stat","gdelt-global-news"],"sectors":["beef","dairy","feed","crops"],"regions":["north-america","latin-america","oceania","europe","africa-asia"],"lookbackWindow":"7 days to 3 years","forwardWindow":"Same week to 9 months","lag":{"en":"Freight and port disruption can widen local basis before national price series register the stress.","es":"Flete y puertos pueden abrir base local antes de que el precio nacional lo refleje.","pt":"Frete e portos podem abrir base local antes do preço nacional refletir."},"leadingSignals":[{"en":"Fuel, port, rail, or border news moves before farmgate averages","es":"Combustible, puerto, tren o frontera se mueven antes del precio rural","pt":"Combustível, porto, trem ou fronteira se movem antes do preço rural"},{"en":"Delivered feed diverges from board or benchmark price","es":"Alimento entregado se separa del precio de referencia","pt":"Ração entregue se separa do preço de referência"},{"en":"Destination prices stop translating to local bids","es":"Precio destino deja de traducirse a oferta local","pt":"Preço destino deixa de virar preço local"}],"forwardEffects":[{"en":"Cattle, hay, milk, grain, and fertilizer spreads widen by corridor","es":"Ganado, heno, leche, grano e insumos abren diferenciales por corredor","pt":"Gado, feno, leite, grão e insumos abrem diferenciais por corredor"},{"en":"Local arbitrage opportunities can appear","es":"Pueden aparecer arbitrajes locales","pt":"Podem aparecer arbitragens locais"},{"en":"Remote producers face discount risk even in strong headline markets","es":"Productores remotos tienen descuento aun con mercado fuerte","pt":"Produtores remotos têm desconto mesmo com mercado forte"}],"producerDecision":{"en":"Price the delivered destination, not the benchmark, before moving cattle, feed, milk, or crop volume.","es":"Valuar el destino entregado, no el benchmark, antes de mover ganado, alimento, leche o cultivos.","pt":"Precificar o destino entregue, não o benchmark, antes de mover gado, ração, leite ou culturas."},"confidence":78},{"id":"geopolitical-shock-to-feed-freight","driver":{"en":"Geopolitical shocks become feed, freight, and basis risk","es":"Choques geopolíticos se vuelven riesgo de alimento, flete y base","pt":"Choques geopolíticos viram risco de ração, frete e base"},"sourceIds":["gdelt-global-news","reliefweb-agriculture","fao-giews","suez-canal-authority","panama-canal-authority","baltic-exchange","world-bank-pink-sheet","eia-fuel","un-comtrade","usda-oce-port-grain"],"sectors":["beef","dairy","feed","crops"],"regions":["north-america","latin-america","oceania","europe","africa-asia"],"lookbackWindow":"Same day to 3 years","forwardWindow":"Same week to 12 months","lag":{"en":"Conflict, sanctions, or shipping-route stress can move fuel, fertilizer, grain, and freight before farmgate cattle or milk prices adjust.","es":"Conflicto, sanciones o rutas marítimas pueden mover combustible, fertilizante, grano y flete antes del precio rural.","pt":"Conflito, sanções ou rotas marítimas podem mover combustível, fertilizante, grão e frete antes do preço rural."},"leadingSignals":[{"en":"Red Sea, Black Sea, canal, port, or border headlines mention grain, fertilizer, fuel, or livestock routes","es":"Titulares de Mar Rojo, Mar Negro, canales, puertos o frontera mencionan granos, fertilizante, combustible o ganado","pt":"Manchetes de Mar Vermelho, Mar Negro, canais, portos ou fronteira mencionam grãos, fertilizante, combustível ou gado"},{"en":"Freight, fuel, fertilizer, or grain indexes move before delivered feed quotes reset","es":"Flete, combustible, fertilizante o granos se mueven antes del alimento entregado","pt":"Frete, combustível, fertilizante ou grãos se movem antes da ração entregue"},{"en":"Destination or route risk weakens the translation from global price to local bid","es":"Riesgo de destino o ruta debilita la traducción de precio global a oferta local","pt":"Risco de destino ou rota enfraquece a tradução de preço global em preço local"}],"forwardEffects":[{"en":"Delivered feed and fertilizer become more expensive or less reliable","es":"Alimento y fertilizante entregados se encarecen o pierden confiabilidad","pt":"Ração e fertilizante entregues ficam mais caros ou menos confiáveis"},{"en":"Local basis can diverge from headline futures or export values","es":"La base local puede separarse de futuros o valores exportadores","pt":"A base local pode se separar de futuros ou valores de exportação"},{"en":"Local feed substitution, earlier sale timing, or destination hedging becomes valuable","es":"Sustitución local, venta más temprana o cobertura de destino gana valor","pt":"Substituição local, venda antecipada ou hedge de destino ganha valor"}],"producerDecision":{"en":"Treat global conflict and shipping risk as a delivered-cost problem before changing sale timing, feed coverage, or crop-input purchases.","es":"Tratar conflicto y transporte global como costo entregado antes de cambiar ventas, alimento o insumos agrícolas.","pt":"Tratar conflito e transporte global como custo entregue antes de mudar venda, ração ou insumos agrícolas."},"confidence":79},{"id":"heat-load-to-milk-gain","driver":{"en":"Heat load becomes milk and weight-gain drag","es":"Carga de calor reduce leche y ganancia","pt":"Carga térmica vira perda de leite e ganho"},"sourceIds":["nasa-power","noaa-cpc","copernicus-cds","brazil-inmet","world-bank-climate"],"sectors":["dairy","beef","feed","crops"],"regions":["north-america","latin-america","oceania","europe","africa-asia"],"lookbackWindow":"7-90 days","forwardWindow":"Same day to 12 weeks","lag":{"en":"Heat and humidity affect intake first, then milk, weight gain, conception, and sale timing.","es":"Calor y humedad afectan consumo primero, luego leche, ganancia, preñez y ventas.","pt":"Calor e umidade afetam consumo primeiro, depois leite, ganho, prenhez e venda."},"leadingSignals":[{"en":"Temperature-humidity pressure rises for multiple days","es":"Presión temperatura-humedad sube varios días","pt":"Pressão temperatura-umidade sobe por vários dias"},{"en":"Water demand and night cooling fail to reset","es":"Demanda de agua y noche no se recuperan","pt":"Demanda de água e noite não resetam"},{"en":"Feed intake falls before production reports update","es":"Consumo cae antes del reporte productivo","pt":"Consumo cai antes do relatório produtivo"}],"forwardEffects":[{"en":"Milk output and components weaken","es":"Leche y sólidos se debilitan","pt":"Leite e sólidos enfraquecem"},{"en":"Finishing cattle gain less efficiently","es":"Ganado de engorde gana menos eficientemente","pt":"Gado terminado ganha com menor eficiência"},{"en":"Water, shade, and ration timing become margin controls","es":"Agua, sombra y dieta controlan margen","pt":"Água, sombra e dieta controlam margem"}],"producerDecision":{"en":"Move heat mitigation and ration timing ahead of sale-weight or milk-output assumptions.","es":"Poner mitigación de calor y dieta antes de asumir peso o leche.","pt":"Colocar mitigação de calor e dieta antes de assumir peso ou leite."},"confidence":82},{"id":"policy-change-to-farm-incentive","driver":{"en":"Policy change resets farm incentives","es":"Política cambia incentivos rurales","pt":"Política muda incentivos rurais"},"sourceIds":["usda-gain","eu-agri-food-data","uk-defra","argentina-magyp","usda-fsa","gdelt-global-news"],"sectors":["beef","dairy","feed","crops","animal-health"],"regions":["north-america","latin-america","oceania","europe","africa-asia"],"lookbackWindow":"Same day to 10 years","forwardWindow":"1 month to 5 years","lag":{"en":"Policy often moves incentives before production changes, then appears later in acreage, herd, and trade data.","es":"La política mueve incentivos antes de producción y luego aparece en área, hato y comercio.","pt":"Política move incentivos antes da produção e depois aparece em área, rebanho e comércio."},"leadingSignals":[{"en":"Subsidy, tax, environmental, or animal-health rule changes","es":"Subsidio, impuesto, ambiente o sanidad cambia","pt":"Subsídio, imposto, ambiente ou sanidade muda"},{"en":"Program deadlines change planting, culling, or compliance timing","es":"Plazos cambian siembra, descarte o cumplimiento","pt":"Prazos mudam plantio, descarte ou conformidade"},{"en":"Market access changes before trade totals confirm","es":"Acceso cambia antes de que comercio confirme","pt":"Acesso muda antes de comércio confirmar"}],"forwardEffects":[{"en":"Acreage, herd size, input spend, and certification costs can shift","es":"Área, hato, insumos y certificación pueden cambiar","pt":"Área, rebanho, insumos e certificação podem mudar"},{"en":"Producer behavior can diverge by country or state","es":"Comportamiento puede divergir por país o estado","pt":"Comportamento pode divergir por país ou estado"},{"en":"Compliance costs can become part of basis and buyer access","es":"Cumplimiento entra en base y acceso de compradores","pt":"Conformidade entra na base e acesso de compradores"}],"producerDecision":{"en":"Before changing herd, crop, or feed plans, separate market signal from policy incentive.","es":"Antes de cambiar hato, cultivo o alimento, separar señal de mercado de incentivo político.","pt":"Antes de mudar rebanho, cultura ou ração, separar sinal de mercado de incentivo político."},"confidence":77}],"geoMarketNodes":[{"id":"southern-plains","regionId":"north-america","name":"Southern Plains","country":"United States","latitude":35.5,"longitude":-99.5,"marketRole":{"en":"Feedlot, fed cattle, drought, and feed basis node","es":"Nodo de feedlot, gordo, sequía y base","pt":"Nó de confinamento, boi gordo, seca e base"},"dominantSectors":["beef","feed","crops"],"risk":68,"opportunity":77,"primaryDriver":{"en":"Feed cost and drought","es":"Alimento y sequía","pt":"Ração e seca"},"watchSignal":{"en":"Feeder bids vs corn and hay basis","es":"Invernada vs base de maíz y heno","pt":"Recria vs base de milho e feno"}},{"id":"canadian-prairies","regionId":"north-america","name":"Canadian Prairies","country":"Canada","latitude":52.1,"longitude":-106.7,"marketRole":{"en":"Feed grain, border, and feeder-cattle corridor","es":"Corredor de grano, frontera e invernada","pt":"Corredor de grãos, fronteira e recria"},"dominantSectors":["beef","feed","crops"],"risk":54,"opportunity":69,"primaryDriver":{"en":"FX, feed grain, and border movement","es":"Cambio, grano y frontera","pt":"Câmbio, grãos e fronteira"},"watchSignal":{"en":"Barley/corn spread and cross-border basis","es":"Cebada/maíz y base fronteriza","pt":"Cevada/milho e base de fronteira"}},{"id":"mato-grosso","regionId":"latin-america","name":"Mato Grosso","country":"Brazil","latitude":-12.6,"longitude":-55.7,"marketRole":{"en":"Pasture, cattle, soy, corn, and export logistics node","es":"Nodo de pasto, ganado, soja, maíz y exportación","pt":"Nó de pasto, gado, soja, milho e exportação"},"dominantSectors":["beef","feed","crops"],"risk":72,"opportunity":86,"primaryDriver":{"en":"Rain, arroba, export basis, and freight","es":"Lluvia, arroba, base exportadora y flete","pt":"Chuva, arroba, base exportadora e frete"},"watchSignal":{"en":"Pasture recovery vs soybean and corn logistics","es":"Pasto vs logística de soja y maíz","pt":"Pasto vs logística de soja e milho"}},{"id":"sao-paulo","regionId":"latin-america","name":"São Paulo","country":"Brazil","latitude":-22.2,"longitude":-48.8,"marketRole":{"en":"Reference cattle price, processor, dairy, and crop-input node","es":"Precio referencia, frigorífico, leche e insumos","pt":"Preço referência, frigorífico, leite e insumos"},"dominantSectors":["beef","dairy","feed","crops"],"risk":61,"opportunity":79,"primaryDriver":{"en":"CEPEA indicators and processing demand","es":"Indicadores CEPEA y demanda frigorífica","pt":"Indicadores CEPEA e demanda frigorífica"},"watchSignal":{"en":"Boi gordo plus corn and soybean meal","es":"Boi gordo más maíz y soja","pt":"Boi gordo mais milho e farelo"}},{"id":"northern-mexico","regionId":"latin-america","name":"Northern Mexico","country":"Mexico","latitude":28.6,"longitude":-106.1,"marketRole":{"en":"Border cattle, feeder flow, drought, and corn import node","es":"Frontera, becerros, sequía e importación de maíz","pt":"Fronteira, bezerros, seca e importação de milho"},"dominantSectors":["beef","feed","crops","animal-health"],"risk":66,"opportunity":72,"primaryDriver":{"en":"Border rules, drought, feed imports, and FX","es":"Frontera, sequía, importación y cambio","pt":"Fronteira, seca, importação e câmbio"},"watchSignal":{"en":"Border movement vs feed replacement cost","es":"Frontera vs costo de alimento","pt":"Fronteira vs custo de ração"}},{"id":"queensland","regionId":"oceania","name":"Queensland","country":"Australia","latitude":-22.6,"longitude":144.5,"marketRole":{"en":"Restocker, rainfall, pasture, and saleyard node","es":"Reposición, lluvia, pasto y remates","pt":"Reposição, chuva, pasto e leilões"},"dominantSectors":["beef","feed","crops"],"risk":62,"opportunity":74,"primaryDriver":{"en":"Rainfall recovery and restocking appetite","es":"Recuperación de lluvia y reposición","pt":"Recuperação da chuva e reposição"},"watchSignal":{"en":"Rainfall anomaly vs store cattle competition","es":"Lluvia vs competencia por reposición","pt":"Chuva vs competição por reposição"}},{"id":"waikato","regionId":"oceania","name":"Waikato","country":"New Zealand","latitude":-37.8,"longitude":175.3,"marketRole":{"en":"Pasture dairy, milk solids, and dairy-beef node","es":"Lechería a pasto, sólidos y carne-leche","pt":"Leite a pasto, sólidos e leite-carne"},"dominantSectors":["dairy","beef","feed"],"risk":49,"opportunity":73,"primaryDriver":{"en":"Milk-solids margin and pasture quality","es":"Sólidos de leche y pasto","pt":"Sólidos do leite e pasto"},"watchSignal":{"en":"GDT auctions vs pasture growth","es":"Subastas GDT vs crecimiento de pasto","pt":"Leilões GDT vs crescimento de pasto"}},{"id":"ireland","regionId":"europe","name":"Ireland","country":"Ireland","latitude":53.4,"longitude":-8.2,"marketRole":{"en":"Grass dairy, beef, forage, and export node","es":"Leche a pasto, carne, forraje y exportación","pt":"Leite a pasto, carne, forragem e exportação"},"dominantSectors":["dairy","beef","feed","crops"],"risk":48,"opportunity":68,"primaryDriver":{"en":"Grass growth and milk-feed spread","es":"Crecimiento de pasto y leche-alimento","pt":"Crescimento do pasto e leite-ração"},"watchSignal":{"en":"Milk price vs forage availability","es":"Leche vs forraje disponible","pt":"Leite vs forragem disponível"}},{"id":"north-germany","regionId":"europe","name":"North Germany","country":"Germany","latitude":53.6,"longitude":9.9,"marketRole":{"en":"Dairy processing, feed-import, and cull-cow node","es":"Nodo lechero, alimento importado y vaca de descarte","pt":"Nó leiteiro, ração importada e vaca de descarte"},"dominantSectors":["dairy","feed","beef"],"risk":51,"opportunity":67,"primaryDriver":{"en":"Milk price, SMP, feed, and energy","es":"Leche, polvo descremada, alimento y energía","pt":"Leite, pó desnatado, ração e energia"},"watchSignal":{"en":"Raw milk vs SMP and delivered feed cost","es":"Leche cruda vs polvo descremada y alimento entregado","pt":"Leite cru vs pó desnatado e ração entregue"}},{"id":"western-france","regionId":"europe","name":"Western France","country":"France","latitude":48.1,"longitude":-1.7,"marketRole":{"en":"Dairy, beef, forage, and processing node","es":"Nodo de leche, carne, forraje y procesamiento","pt":"Nó de leite, carne, forragem e processamento"},"dominantSectors":["dairy","beef","feed","crops"],"risk":46,"opportunity":66,"primaryDriver":{"en":"Forage, milk price, and replacement economics","es":"Forraje, leche y reposición","pt":"Forragem, leite e reposição"},"watchSignal":{"en":"Milk price vs forage and dairy-beef supply","es":"Leche vs forraje y oferta de carne lechera","pt":"Leite vs forragem e carne leiteira"}},{"id":"netherlands-dairy","regionId":"europe","name":"Netherlands dairy belt","country":"Netherlands","latitude":52.2,"longitude":5.3,"marketRole":{"en":"High-density dairy, processor, and feed-import node","es":"Lechería densa, industria y alimento importado","pt":"Leite intensivo, indústria e ração importada"},"dominantSectors":["dairy","feed","beef"],"risk":57,"opportunity":70,"primaryDriver":{"en":"Milk price, butter, feed imports, and policy","es":"Leche, mantequilla, alimento importado y política","pt":"Leite, manteiga, ração importada e política"},"watchSignal":{"en":"Butter support vs farmgate milk and feed imports","es":"Mantequilla vs leche al productor e importación de alimento","pt":"Manteiga vs leite ao produtor e ração importada"}},{"id":"east-africa-dairy","regionId":"africa-asia","name":"East Africa dairy belts","country":"Regional","latitude":0.5,"longitude":36.8,"marketRole":{"en":"Smallholder dairy, feed access, heat, and water node","es":"Leche familiar, alimento, calor y agua","pt":"Leite familiar, ração, calor e água"},"dominantSectors":["dairy","feed","crops","animal-health"],"risk":74,"opportunity":71,"primaryDriver":{"en":"Feed, water, heat, and disease","es":"Alimento, agua, calor y sanidad","pt":"Ração, água, calor e sanidade"},"watchSignal":{"en":"Heat stress vs local feed availability","es":"Calor vs alimento local","pt":"Calor vs ração local"}},{"id":"pampas","regionId":"latin-america","name":"Pampas","country":"Argentina","latitude":-36.5,"longitude":-60,"marketRole":{"en":"Grass-fed beef, corn, policy, and export node","es":"Carne a pasto, maíz, política y exportación","pt":"Carne a pasto, milho, política e exportação"},"dominantSectors":["beef","feed","crops"],"risk":69,"opportunity":76,"primaryDriver":{"en":"Export policy, pasture, corn, and FX","es":"Política exportadora, pasto, maíz y cambio","pt":"Política exportadora, pasto, milho e câmbio"},"watchSignal":{"en":"Policy shifts vs cattle and corn basis","es":"Política vs base de ganado y maíz","pt":"Política vs base de gado e milho"}},{"id":"colombia-llanos","regionId":"latin-america","name":"Colombian Llanos","country":"Colombia","latitude":4,"longitude":-72.5,"marketRole":{"en":"Tropical pasture, cattle expansion, and weather node","es":"Pasto tropical, expansión ganadera y clima","pt":"Pasto tropical, expansão pecuária e clima"},"dominantSectors":["beef","feed","crops"],"risk":65,"opportunity":78,"primaryDriver":{"en":"Rainfall, pasture, transport, and regional prices","es":"Lluvia, pasto, transporte y precios","pt":"Chuva, pasto, transporte e preços"},"watchSignal":{"en":"Rainfall recovery vs local price spread","es":"Lluvia vs diferencial de precio","pt":"Chuva vs diferencial de preço"}},{"id":"uruguay-littoral","regionId":"latin-america","name":"Uruguay Littoral","country":"Uruguay","latitude":-32.3,"longitude":-57.2,"marketRole":{"en":"Traceable beef, pasture, carcass, and export node","es":"Carne trazable, pasto, carcasa y exportación","pt":"Carne rastreável, pasto, carcaça e exportação"},"dominantSectors":["beef","feed"],"risk":52,"opportunity":74,"primaryDriver":{"en":"Export access and carcass value","es":"Acceso exportador y valor de carcasa","pt":"Acesso exportador e valor de carcaça"},"watchSignal":{"en":"INAC values vs pasture condition","es":"INAC vs condición de pasto","pt":"INAC vs condição de pasto"}},{"id":"new-south-wales","regionId":"oceania","name":"New South Wales","country":"Australia","latitude":-32.2,"longitude":147,"marketRole":{"en":"Saleyard, crop, grain ration, and feedlot entry node","es":"Remate, cultivo, grano y entrada feedlot","pt":"Leilão, cultura, grão e entrada confinamento"},"dominantSectors":["beef","feed","crops"],"risk":55,"opportunity":72,"primaryDriver":{"en":"Grain ration, freight, and rainfall","es":"Ración de grano, flete y lluvia","pt":"Ração de grão, frete e chuva"},"watchSignal":{"en":"Grain basis vs feeder entry price","es":"Base de grano vs entrada feedlot","pt":"Base de grão vs entrada confinamento"}},{"id":"france-west","regionId":"europe","name":"Western France","country":"France","latitude":47.5,"longitude":-1.2,"marketRole":{"en":"Beef, dairy, forage, crop, and input-cost node","es":"Carne, leche, forraje, cultivo e insumos","pt":"Carne, leite, forragem, cultura e insumos"},"dominantSectors":["beef","dairy","feed","crops"],"risk":55,"opportunity":66,"primaryDriver":{"en":"Forage, energy, dairy, and crop input cost","es":"Forraje, energía, leche e insumos","pt":"Forragem, energia, leite e insumos"},"watchSignal":{"en":"Milk-feed spread vs winter forage","es":"Leche-alimento vs forraje","pt":"Leite-ração vs forragem"}},{"id":"south-asia-dairy","regionId":"africa-asia","name":"South Asia dairy clusters","country":"Regional","latitude":23.4,"longitude":78.8,"marketRole":{"en":"Smallholder dairy, heat, feed, and milk availability node","es":"Leche familiar, calor, alimento y disponibilidad","pt":"Leite familiar, calor, ração e disponibilidade"},"dominantSectors":["dairy","feed","crops","animal-health"],"risk":66,"opportunity":70,"primaryDriver":{"en":"Heat, feed access, and milk collection","es":"Calor, alimento y acopio de leche","pt":"Calor, ração e captação de leite"},"watchSignal":{"en":"Heat load vs milk supply","es":"Carga de calor vs leche","pt":"Carga térmica vs leite"}},{"id":"gulf-import-corridor","regionId":"africa-asia","name":"Gulf import corridors","country":"Regional","latitude":24.5,"longitude":54.5,"marketRole":{"en":"Import demand, animal health, feed grain, and logistics node","es":"Importación, sanidad, grano y logística","pt":"Importação, sanidade, grão e logística"},"dominantSectors":["beef","dairy","feed","animal-health","crops"],"risk":70,"opportunity":73,"primaryDriver":{"en":"Import rules, disease status, freight, and feed grain availability","es":"Importación, sanidad, flete y grano","pt":"Importação, sanidade, frete e grão"},"watchSignal":{"en":"Disease alerts vs import demand","es":"Alertas sanitarios vs importación","pt":"Alertas sanitários vs importação"}},{"id":"south-africa-highveld","regionId":"africa-asia","name":"South Africa Highveld","country":"South Africa","latitude":-26.2,"longitude":28,"marketRole":{"en":"Feedlot, maize, pasture, and disease-risk node","es":"Feedlot, maíz, pasto y sanidad","pt":"Confinamento, milho, pasto e sanidade"},"dominantSectors":["beef","feed","crops","animal-health"],"risk":69,"opportunity":68,"primaryDriver":{"en":"Maize basis, drought, and disease movement","es":"Base de maíz, sequía y sanidad","pt":"Base de milho, seca e sanidade"},"watchSignal":{"en":"Maize basis vs feedlot margin","es":"Base de maíz vs margen feedlot","pt":"Base de milho vs margem confinamento"}}],"scenarioModels":[{"id":"drought-shock","name":{"en":"Drought tightens forage","es":"Sequía aprieta el forraje","pt":"Seca aperta o pasto"},"sector":"feed","defaultIntensity":42,"sourceIds":["us-drought-monitor","noaa-climate","nasa-power","bom-climate","mexico-siap","gdelt-global-news"],"description":{"en":"Pasture weakens, hay gets tighter, and more cows or calves can move earlier than planned.","es":"El pasto se debilita, el heno se ajusta y más vacas o terneros pueden salir antes.","pt":"O pasto enfraquece, o feno aperta e mais vacas ou bezerros podem sair antes."},"producerDecision":{"en":"Check forage inventory, water, and the value of selling lighter cattle before everyone else is forced to.","es":"Revisar forraje, agua y el valor de vender más liviano antes de una venta forzada.","pt":"Revisar pasto, água e o valor de vender mais leve antes da venda forçada."},"outputs":[{"label":{"en":"Hay cost risk","es":"Riesgo de heno","pt":"Risco de feno"},"baseline":28,"unit":"%","perIntensityPoint":0.72,"direction":"higher-is-risk"},{"label":{"en":"Early sale pressure","es":"Venta temprana","pt":"Venda antecipada"},"baseline":22,"unit":"%","perIntensityPoint":0.58,"direction":"higher-is-risk"},{"label":{"en":"Pasture carrying days","es":"Días de pasto","pt":"Dias de pasto"},"baseline":64,"unit":"days","perIntensityPoint":-0.42,"direction":"lower-is-risk"}]},{"id":"feed-cost-spike","name":{"en":"Feed cost spike","es":"Salto de costo de alimento","pt":"Alta no custo da ração"},"sector":"feed","defaultIntensity":35,"sourceIds":["usda-ams","usda-nass","usda-ers-feed-grains","conab","mexico-siap","world-bank-pink-sheet","eia-fuel","cftc-cot","gdelt-global-news"],"description":{"en":"Corn, hay, soybean meal, fuel, or freight costs rise faster than cattle value.","es":"Maíz, heno, harina de soja, combustible o flete suben más rápido que el ganado.","pt":"Milho, feno, farelo, combustível ou frete sobem mais rápido que o gado."},"producerDecision":{"en":"Recalculate whether the next gain period is still worth feeding.","es":"Recalcular si el próximo período de ganancia todavía paga.","pt":"Recalcular se o próximo período de ganho ainda paga."},"outputs":[{"label":{"en":"Feed breakeven pressure","es":"Presión de equilibrio","pt":"Pressão no ponto de equilíbrio"},"baseline":34,"unit":"%","perIntensityPoint":0.66,"direction":"higher-is-risk"},{"label":{"en":"Margin cushion","es":"Colchón de margen","pt":"Folga de margem"},"baseline":24,"unit":"%","perIntensityPoint":-0.45,"direction":"lower-is-risk"},{"label":{"en":"Freight sensitivity","es":"Sensibilidad a flete","pt":"Sensibilidade ao frete"},"baseline":18,"unit":"%","perIntensityPoint":0.31,"direction":"higher-is-risk"}]},{"id":"export-disruption","name":{"en":"Export or border disruption","es":"Interrupción de exportación","pt":"Interrupção de exportação"},"sector":"beef","defaultIntensity":30,"sourceIds":["usda-fas","comex-stat","mexico-siap","woah-wahis","argentina-senasa","cftc-cot","gdelt-global-news"],"description":{"en":"A sanitary, policy, currency, or logistics event changes buyer access.","es":"Un evento sanitario, político, cambiario o logístico cambia acceso de compradores.","pt":"Um evento sanitário, político, cambial ou logístico muda acesso de compradores."},"producerDecision":{"en":"Do not assume local bids are stable when export channels or border rules move.","es":"No asumir ofertas estables cuando cambian exportación o frontera.","pt":"Não assumir ofertas estáveis quando exportação ou fronteira mudam."},"outputs":[{"label":{"en":"Basis risk","es":"Riesgo de base","pt":"Risco de base"},"baseline":26,"unit":"%","perIntensityPoint":0.72,"direction":"higher-is-risk"},{"label":{"en":"Cull cow pressure","es":"Presión de descarte","pt":"Pressão de descarte"},"baseline":18,"unit":"%","perIntensityPoint":0.33,"direction":"higher-is-risk"},{"label":{"en":"Buyer competition","es":"Competencia compradora","pt":"Competição compradora"},"baseline":46,"unit":"%","perIntensityPoint":-0.51,"direction":"lower-is-risk"}]},{"id":"disease-alert","name":{"en":"Disease alert or movement hold","es":"Alerta sanitario o pausa de movimiento","pt":"Alerta sanitário ou pausa de movimentação"},"sector":"animal-health","defaultIntensity":28,"sourceIds":["woah-wahis","usda-aphis","argentina-senasa","gdelt-global-news"],"description":{"en":"Official animal health alerts can change movement, buyer confidence, mortality risk, and export access.","es":"Alertas oficiales pueden cambiar movimiento, confianza, mortalidad y exportación.","pt":"Alertas oficiais podem mudar movimentação, confiança, mortalidade e exportação."},"producerDecision":{"en":"Treat health status as a market signal before buying, moving, or selling cattle.","es":"Tratar sanidad como señal de mercado antes de comprar, mover o vender.","pt":"Tratar sanidade como sinal de mercado antes de comprar, mover ou vender."},"outputs":[{"label":{"en":"Movement friction","es":"Fricción de movimiento","pt":"Atrito de movimentação"},"baseline":16,"unit":"%","perIntensityPoint":0.88,"direction":"higher-is-risk"},{"label":{"en":"Buyer discount risk","es":"Riesgo de descuento","pt":"Risco de desconto"},"baseline":14,"unit":"%","perIntensityPoint":0.46,"direction":"higher-is-risk"},{"label":{"en":"Biosecurity spend","es":"Gasto sanitario","pt":"Gasto sanitário"},"baseline":10,"unit":"%","perIntensityPoint":0.35,"direction":"higher-is-risk"}]},{"id":"milk-margin-squeeze","name":{"en":"Milk margin squeeze","es":"Compresión de margen lechero","pt":"Aperto na margem do leite"},"sector":"dairy","defaultIntensity":33,"sourceIds":["eu-milk","usda-ams","mexico-siap","eurostat-agri","world-bank-pink-sheet","gdelt-global-news"],"description":{"en":"Milk price weakens while feed, energy, or cull cow pressure rises.","es":"El precio de leche baja mientras suben alimento, energía o descarte.","pt":"O preço do leite cai enquanto sobem ração, energia ou descarte."},"producerDecision":{"en":"Reprice feed, cull timing, and replacement animals before ration spend outruns milk value.","es":"Recalcular dieta, descarte y reposición antes de que la ración supere la leche.","pt":"Recalcular dieta, descarte e reposição antes que a ração supere o leite."},"outputs":[{"label":{"en":"Milk-feed squeeze","es":"Leche-alimento","pt":"Leite-ração"},"baseline":31,"unit":"%","perIntensityPoint":0.62,"direction":"higher-is-risk"},{"label":{"en":"Cull flow","es":"Flujo de descarte","pt":"Fluxo de descarte"},"baseline":18,"unit":"%","perIntensityPoint":0.43,"direction":"higher-is-risk"},{"label":{"en":"Replacement appetite","es":"Apetito de reposición","pt":"Apetite de reposição"},"baseline":42,"unit":"%","perIntensityPoint":-0.39,"direction":"lower-is-risk"}]},{"id":"crop-yield-shock","name":{"en":"Crop yield shock","es":"Choque de rendimiento agrícola","pt":"Choque de produtividade agrícola"},"sector":"crops","defaultIntensity":38,"sourceIds":["copernicus-cds","usda-wasde","usda-nass","usda-ers-feed-grains","nasa-power","world-bank-climate","cftc-cot","gdelt-global-news"],"description":{"en":"Soil moisture, heat, and rainfall patterns point to lower crop yields before harvest data is published.","es":"Humedad de suelo, calor y lluvia apuntan a menor rendimiento antes de la cosecha.","pt":"Umidade do solo, calor e chuva indicam menor produtividade antes da colheita."},"producerDecision":{"en":"Decide whether to protect feed needs, price grain, adjust planting, or buy hay before local shortages are obvious.","es":"Decidir si proteger alimento, fijar grano, ajustar siembra o comprar heno antes de escasez local.","pt":"Decidir se proteger ração, fixar grão, ajustar plantio ou comprar feno antes da escassez local."},"outputs":[{"label":{"en":"Feed cost pressure","es":"Presión de alimento","pt":"Pressão de ração"},"baseline":24,"unit":"%","perIntensityPoint":0.64,"direction":"higher-is-risk"},{"label":{"en":"Yield downside","es":"Baja de rendimiento","pt":"Queda de produtividade"},"baseline":18,"unit":"%","perIntensityPoint":0.52,"direction":"higher-is-risk"},{"label":{"en":"Hedging urgency","es":"Urgencia de cobertura","pt":"Urgência de hedge"},"baseline":31,"unit":"%","perIntensityPoint":0.48,"direction":"higher-is-risk"}]},{"id":"fertilizer-energy-squeeze","name":{"en":"Fertilizer and energy squeeze","es":"Presión de fertilizante y energía","pt":"Aperto de fertilizante e energia"},"sector":"crops","defaultIntensity":32,"sourceIds":["world-bank-pink-sheet","bls-ag-inputs","eia-fuel","imf-ifs","gdelt-global-news"],"description":{"en":"Fertilizer, diesel, freight, and credit costs rise before crop or cattle prices fully adjust.","es":"Fertilizante, diésel, flete y crédito suben antes de que precios ajusten.","pt":"Fertilizante, diesel, frete e crédito sobem antes que preços ajustem."},"producerDecision":{"en":"Stress-test planting, feed procurement, and replacement purchases against higher working-capital cost.","es":"Probar siembra, compra de alimento y reposición contra mayor capital de trabajo.","pt":"Testar plantio, compra de ração e reposição contra maior capital de giro."},"outputs":[{"label":{"en":"Input-cost drag","es":"Arrastre de insumos","pt":"Peso dos insumos"},"baseline":29,"unit":"%","perIntensityPoint":0.7,"direction":"higher-is-risk"},{"label":{"en":"Planting margin","es":"Margen de siembra","pt":"Margem de plantio"},"baseline":46,"unit":"%","perIntensityPoint":-0.43,"direction":"lower-is-risk"},{"label":{"en":"Cash-flow risk","es":"Riesgo de caja","pt":"Risco de caixa"},"baseline":21,"unit":"%","perIntensityPoint":0.54,"direction":"higher-is-risk"}]},{"id":"credit-interest-squeeze","name":{"en":"Credit and interest squeeze","es":"Presión de crédito e intereses","pt":"Aperto de crédito e juros"},"sector":"beef","defaultIntensity":27,"sourceIds":["fred-ag-macro","imf-ifs","brazil-bcb-sgs","world-bank-wdi","gdelt-global-news"],"description":{"en":"Higher financing cost changes replacement purchases, retained ownership, crop inputs, equipment, and working capital.","es":"Mayor costo financiero cambia reposición, propiedad retenida, insumos, equipo y capital de trabajo.","pt":"Maior custo financeiro muda reposição, propriedade retida, insumos, equipamentos e capital de giro."},"producerDecision":{"en":"Run every hold, buy, feed, and planting decision through cash-flow timing, not only headline price.","es":"Pasar cada retener, comprar, alimentar o sembrar por caja, no solo por precio.","pt":"Passar cada reter, comprar, alimentar ou plantar por caixa, não só por preço."},"outputs":[{"label":{"en":"Replacement finance drag","es":"Costo financiero de reposición","pt":"Peso financeiro da reposição"},"baseline":24,"unit":"%","perIntensityPoint":0.62,"direction":"higher-is-risk"},{"label":{"en":"Retained ownership risk","es":"Riesgo de propiedad retenida","pt":"Risco de propriedade retida"},"baseline":19,"unit":"%","perIntensityPoint":0.48,"direction":"higher-is-risk"},{"label":{"en":"Input prepay flexibility","es":"Flexibilidad para insumos","pt":"Flexibilidade para insumos"},"baseline":54,"unit":"%","perIntensityPoint":-0.5,"direction":"lower-is-risk"}]},{"id":"port-freight-shock","name":{"en":"Port and freight shock","es":"Choque de puerto y flete","pt":"Choque de porto e frete"},"sector":"feed","defaultIntensity":36,"sourceIds":["gdelt-global-news","un-comtrade","brazil-mapa-agrostat","eia-fuel","world-bank-pink-sheet"],"description":{"en":"Port congestion, fuel, border friction, or shipping disruption widens the gap between farm price and destination price.","es":"Congestión, combustible, frontera o transporte abre brecha entre precio rural y destino.","pt":"Congestão, combustível, fronteira ou transporte abre diferença entre preço rural e destino."},"producerDecision":{"en":"Before moving cattle, hay, grain, milk, or inputs, test whether freight has already eaten the price signal.","es":"Antes de mover ganado, heno, grano, leche o insumos, probar si el flete ya consumió la señal.","pt":"Antes de mover gado, feno, grão, leite ou insumos, testar se o frete já comeu o sinal."},"outputs":[{"label":{"en":"Delivered-feed risk","es":"Riesgo de alimento entregado","pt":"Risco de ração entregue"},"baseline":26,"unit":"%","perIntensityPoint":0.73,"direction":"higher-is-risk"},{"label":{"en":"Export basis drag","es":"Arrastre de base exportadora","pt":"Peso da base exportadora"},"baseline":22,"unit":"%","perIntensityPoint":0.59,"direction":"higher-is-risk"},{"label":{"en":"Local arbitrage window","es":"Ventana de arbitraje local","pt":"Janela de arbitragem local"},"baseline":35,"unit":"%","perIntensityPoint":0.32,"direction":"higher-is-opportunity"}]},{"id":"geopolitical-shipping-shock","name":{"en":"War and shipping disruption","es":"Guerra e interrupción marítima","pt":"Guerra e interrupção marítima"},"sector":"feed","defaultIntensity":37,"sourceIds":["gdelt-global-news","reliefweb-agriculture","fao-giews","suez-canal-authority","panama-canal-authority","baltic-exchange","world-bank-pink-sheet","eia-fuel","un-comtrade","usda-oce-port-grain"],"description":{"en":"Conflict, sanctions, canal disruption, or route risk changes grain, fertilizer, fuel, freight, and protein trade costs.","es":"Conflicto, sanciones, canales o riesgo de rutas cambian granos, fertilizante, combustible, flete y comercio de proteína.","pt":"Conflito, sanções, canais ou risco de rotas mudam grãos, fertilizante, combustível, frete e comércio de proteína."},"producerDecision":{"en":"Before holding cattle for more gain, check whether war or shipping risk has changed delivered feed, fertilizer, freight, or buyer access.","es":"Antes de retener ganado para más ganancia, revisar si guerra o transporte cambió alimento entregado, fertilizante, flete o compradores.","pt":"Antes de reter gado para mais ganho, revisar se guerra ou transporte mudou ração entregue, fertilizante, frete ou compradores."},"outputs":[{"label":{"en":"Delivered-input risk","es":"Riesgo de insumo entregado","pt":"Risco de insumo entregue"},"baseline":24,"unit":"%","perIntensityPoint":0.69,"direction":"higher-is-risk"},{"label":{"en":"Basis and freight drag","es":"Arrastre de base y flete","pt":"Peso de base e frete"},"baseline":21,"unit":"%","perIntensityPoint":0.64,"direction":"higher-is-risk"},{"label":{"en":"Local substitution value","es":"Valor de sustitución local","pt":"Valor de substituição local"},"baseline":30,"unit":"%","perIntensityPoint":0.35,"direction":"higher-is-opportunity"}]},{"id":"heat-stress-milk-loss","name":{"en":"Heat stress cuts milk and gain","es":"Calor reduce leche y ganancia","pt":"Calor corta leite e ganho"},"sector":"dairy","defaultIntensity":44,"sourceIds":["nasa-power","noaa-cpc","copernicus-cds","brazil-inmet","world-bank-climate"],"description":{"en":"Temperature, humidity, and water stress reduce milk output, weight gain, conception, and pasture recovery.","es":"Temperatura, humedad y agua reducen leche, ganancia, preñez y recuperación de pasto.","pt":"Temperatura, umidade e água reduzem leite, ganho, prenhez e recuperação de pasto."},"producerDecision":{"en":"Prioritize shade, water, ration timing, and sale weights before the heat signal shows up in production reports.","es":"Priorizar sombra, agua, dieta y pesos de venta antes de que el calor aparezca en reportes.","pt":"Priorizar sombra, água, dieta e peso de venda antes de o calor aparecer nos relatórios."},"outputs":[{"label":{"en":"Milk-yield loss","es":"Pérdida de leche","pt":"Perda de leite"},"baseline":12,"unit":"%","perIntensityPoint":0.44,"direction":"higher-is-risk"},{"label":{"en":"Weight-gain drag","es":"Arrastre de ganancia","pt":"Peso no ganho"},"baseline":14,"unit":"%","perIntensityPoint":0.39,"direction":"higher-is-risk"},{"label":{"en":"Cooling and water urgency","es":"Urgencia de agua y enfriamiento","pt":"Urgência de água e resfriamento"},"baseline":28,"unit":"%","perIntensityPoint":0.58,"direction":"higher-is-risk"}]},{"id":"water-restriction-shock","name":{"en":"Water restriction shock","es":"Choque de restricción de agua","pt":"Choque de restrição de água"},"sector":"crops","defaultIntensity":34,"sourceIds":["usgs-water","world-bank-climate","nasa-power","copernicus-cds","bom-climate"],"description":{"en":"Measured water shortage changes irrigation, pasture recovery, crop-feed yield, heat mitigation, and stocking rate.","es":"Escasez de agua cambia riego, pasto, rendimiento de alimento, calor y carga animal.","pt":"Escassez de água muda irrigação, pasto, produtividade de ração, calor e lotação."},"producerDecision":{"en":"Treat water as the first constraint before adding animals, delaying sales, or counting on feed crops.","es":"Tratar agua como primera restricción antes de sumar animales, demorar ventas o contar con cultivos.","pt":"Tratar água como primeira restrição antes de somar animais, atrasar vendas ou contar com culturas."},"outputs":[{"label":{"en":"Stocking constraint","es":"Restricción de carga","pt":"Restrição de lotação"},"baseline":24,"unit":"%","perIntensityPoint":0.68,"direction":"higher-is-risk"},{"label":{"en":"Irrigation/feed-yield risk","es":"Riesgo de riego y alimento","pt":"Risco de irrigação e ração"},"baseline":20,"unit":"%","perIntensityPoint":0.61,"direction":"higher-is-risk"},{"label":{"en":"Forced-sale pressure","es":"Presión de venta forzada","pt":"Pressão de venda forçada"},"baseline":18,"unit":"%","perIntensityPoint":0.49,"direction":"higher-is-risk"}]},{"id":"policy-subsidy-rule-change","name":{"en":"Policy or subsidy rule change","es":"Cambio de política o subsidio","pt":"Mudança de política ou subsídio"},"sector":"crops","defaultIntensity":25,"sourceIds":["usda-gain","eu-agri-food-data","uk-defra","argentina-magyp","gdelt-global-news"],"description":{"en":"Subsidies, environmental rules, animal-health rules, export taxes, or farm programs change producer incentives.","es":"Subsidios, ambiente, sanidad, retenciones o programas cambian incentivos del productor.","pt":"Subsídios, ambiente, sanidade, impostos de exportação ou programas mudam incentivos."},"producerDecision":{"en":"Before changing herd size, crop acreage, or feed purchases, check if policy moved the incentive instead of the market.","es":"Antes de cambiar hato, área o alimento, revisar si la política movió el incentivo.","pt":"Antes de mudar rebanho, área ou ração, revisar se a política moveu o incentivo."},"outputs":[{"label":{"en":"Compliance friction","es":"Fricción de cumplimiento","pt":"Atrito de conformidade"},"baseline":18,"unit":"%","perIntensityPoint":0.55,"direction":"higher-is-risk"},{"label":{"en":"Acreage/herd incentive","es":"Incentivo de área/hato","pt":"Incentivo de área/rebanho"},"baseline":32,"unit":"%","perIntensityPoint":0.37,"direction":"higher-is-opportunity"},{"label":{"en":"Market-access risk","es":"Riesgo de acceso","pt":"Risco de acesso"},"baseline":20,"unit":"%","perIntensityPoint":0.44,"direction":"higher-is-risk"}]}],"canonicalUrl":"https://cattleweightestimation.com/market-pulse"}