{"name":"Cattle Market Pulse decision cockpit","description":"Region-filtered producer decision cockpit. Each selected question connects current evidence, public source families, source graph links, historical lead-lag rules, forward scenarios, decision chains, and producer actions.","generatedAt":"2026-06-06T22:15:17.640Z","snapshotGeneratedAt":"2026-06-06T11:33:23.605Z","snapshotWindow":{"startDate":"2026-05-28","endDate":"2026-06-03"},"updateCadence":"daily","isAccessibleForFree":true,"canonicalUrl":"https://cattleweightestimation.com/market-pulse/decision-cockpit.json","filters":{"region":"north-america","lens":"sell-hold-or-hedge","sector":"all","lang":"en","limit":3},"summary":{"questions":8,"evidenceItems":3,"highSeverity":3,"sourceFamilies":12,"sourceGraphEdges":12,"historicalDrivers":10,"scenarios":8,"causalPaths":8},"queryExamples":["https://cattleweightestimation.com/market-pulse/decision-cockpit.json?region=north-america&lens=sell-hold-or-hedge&lang=en","https://cattleweightestimation.com/market-pulse/decision-cockpit.json?region=latin-america&lens=forage-water-pressure&lang=es","https://cattleweightestimation.com/market-pulse/decision-cockpit.json?region=latin-america&lens=dairy-cull-margin&lang=pt"],"cockpit":{"id":"decision-cockpit-north-america-sell-hold-or-hedge-en","type":"producer-decision-cockpit","title":"North America decision cockpit","subtitle":"Choose a producer question and see current signals, sources, history, scenarios, and actions.","locale":"en","regionId":"north-america","regionName":"North America","selectedLensId":"sell-hold-or-hedge","generatedAt":"2026-06-06T22:15:17.640Z","snapshotGeneratedAt":"2026-06-06T11:33:23.605Z","snapshotWindow":{"startDate":"2026-05-28","endDate":"2026-06-03"},"updateCadence":"daily","isAccessibleForFree":true,"canonicalDataUrl":"https://cattleweightestimation.com/market-pulse/decision-cockpit.json?region=north-america&lens=sell-hold-or-hedge&lang=en","canonicalMarkdownUrl":"https://cattleweightestimation.com/market-pulse/decision-cockpit.md?region=north-america&lens=sell-hold-or-hedge&lang=en","summary":{"questions":8,"evidenceItems":3,"highSeverity":3,"sourceFamilies":12,"sourceGraphEdges":12,"historicalDrivers":10,"scenarios":8,"causalPaths":8},"questions":[{"id":"sell-hold-or-hedge","label":"Sell, hold, or hedge","question":"Does the next weight gain still pay after feed, freight, basis, and buyer risk?","headline":"Starts with cash prices, futures positioning, feed spreads, and local basis before a producer changes sale timing.","producerAction":"Compare today’s bid against the cost and risk of carrying cattle through the next gain window.","refreshCadence":"Daily to weekly","sectors":["beef","feed","crops"],"sourceIds":["usda-ams","cepea-boi","mla-api","cme-livestock","cftc-cot","usda-ers-feed-grains","world-bank-pink-sheet","usda-fas","us-drought-monitor","usda-nass","open-meteo-forecast","usda-wasde","usda-esr","fao-newsroom","usda-aphis","google-news-rss","fao-food-price","bls-ag-inputs","farmprogress-rss","beefcentral-rss","gdelt-global-news","reliefweb-agriculture","eia-fuel","nasa-power","beefpoint-rss","faostat","world-bank-wdi","usda-latest-releases","usgs-water"],"historicalDriverIds":["positioning-to-hedge-margin","crop-balance-to-feed-margin","herd-concentration-to-basis","pasture-stress-to-sale-runs","heat-load-to-milk-gain","export-pull-to-local-basis","geopolitical-shock-to-feed-freight","logistics-to-local-basis","dairy-margin-to-beef-supply","health-alert-to-market-access","credit-cost-to-retention","policy-change-to-farm-incentive"],"scenarioIds":["feed-cost-spike","credit-interest-squeeze","export-disruption","milk-margin-squeeze","heat-stress-milk-loss","drought-shock","disease-alert","crop-yield-shock","fertilizer-energy-squeeze","geopolitical-shipping-shock","water-restriction-shock","port-freight-shock","policy-subsidy-rule-change"],"score":null,"summary":{"evidenceItems":343,"highSeverity":76,"sourceFamilies":29,"sourceGraphEdges":32,"historicalDrivers":12,"scenarios":13}},{"id":"forage-water-pressure","label":"Forage and water pressure","question":"Will pasture, hay, heat, or water force animals to move earlier than planned?","headline":"Weather is useful only when it is translated into forage days, water risk, heat load, and sale pressure.","producerAction":"Move from calendar selling to forage-days, water, and hay-coverage selling.","refreshCadence":"Daily weather, weekly drought","sectors":["beef","dairy","feed","crops"],"sourceIds":["us-drought-monitor","noaa-climate","nasa-power","open-meteo-forecast","usgs-water","bom-climate","fao-aquastat","usda-fas","usda-nass","usda-wasde","usda-ers-feed-grains","cftc-cot","usda-esr","fao-newsroom","usda-aphis","world-bank-pink-sheet","google-news-rss","fao-food-price","bls-ag-inputs","farmprogress-rss","beefcentral-rss","gdelt-global-news","reliefweb-agriculture","usda-ams","eia-fuel","agriland-rss","beefpoint-rss","faostat","world-bank-wdi","usda-latest-releases"],"historicalDriverIds":["pasture-stress-to-sale-runs","heat-load-to-milk-gain","credit-cost-to-retention","crop-balance-to-feed-margin","export-pull-to-local-basis","positioning-to-hedge-margin","geopolitical-shock-to-feed-freight","logistics-to-local-basis","dairy-margin-to-beef-supply","herd-concentration-to-basis","health-alert-to-market-access","policy-change-to-farm-incentive"],"scenarioIds":["drought-shock","heat-stress-milk-loss","water-restriction-shock","milk-margin-squeeze","feed-cost-spike","export-disruption","disease-alert","crop-yield-shock","fertilizer-energy-squeeze","geopolitical-shipping-shock","port-freight-shock","policy-subsidy-rule-change","credit-interest-squeeze"],"score":null,"summary":{"evidenceItems":345,"highSeverity":76,"sourceFamilies":30,"sourceGraphEdges":34,"historicalDrivers":12,"scenarios":13}},{"id":"feed-crop-margin","label":"Feed and crop margin","question":"Are corn, soy meal, hay, fertilizer, diesel, or crop balance changing the value of weight gain?","headline":"Crop balance and input costs often move cattle margins before cattle headlines do.","producerAction":"Reprice feed coverage and ration strategy before deciding to add more weight.","refreshCadence":"Daily to monthly","sectors":["feed","crops","beef","dairy"],"sourceIds":["usda-wasde","usda-ers-feed-grains","conab","world-bank-pink-sheet","fao-food-price","eia-fuel","bls-ag-inputs","gdelt-global-news","reliefweb-agriculture","fao-giews","baltic-exchange","usda-fas","us-drought-monitor","usda-nass","open-meteo-forecast","cftc-cot","usda-esr","fao-newsroom","usda-aphis","google-news-rss","farmprogress-rss","beefcentral-rss","usda-ams","nasa-power","agriland-rss","beefpoint-rss","faostat","world-bank-wdi","usda-latest-releases","usgs-water"],"historicalDriverIds":["crop-balance-to-feed-margin","logistics-to-local-basis","geopolitical-shock-to-feed-freight","policy-change-to-farm-incentive","pasture-stress-to-sale-runs","heat-load-to-milk-gain","export-pull-to-local-basis","positioning-to-hedge-margin","dairy-margin-to-beef-supply","herd-concentration-to-basis","health-alert-to-market-access","credit-cost-to-retention"],"scenarioIds":["feed-cost-spike","crop-yield-shock","fertilizer-energy-squeeze","geopolitical-shipping-shock","milk-margin-squeeze","heat-stress-milk-loss","drought-shock","export-disruption","disease-alert","water-restriction-shock","port-freight-shock","policy-subsidy-rule-change","credit-interest-squeeze"],"score":null,"summary":{"evidenceItems":345,"highSeverity":76,"sourceFamilies":30,"sourceGraphEdges":34,"historicalDrivers":12,"scenarios":13}},{"id":"disease-movement","label":"Disease and movement","question":"Could disease, biosecurity, border rules, or movement holds change buyer access?","headline":"Disease alerts become market signals when they change movement, export access, buyer trust, or replacement demand.","producerAction":"Check health status before buying, moving, contracting, or assuming normal buyer access.","refreshCadence":"Event-driven","sectors":["animal-health","beef","dairy"],"sourceIds":["woah-wahis","usda-aphis","argentina-senasa","paraguay-senacsa","gdelt-global-news","cidrap-rss","fao-newsroom","usda-fas","us-drought-monitor","usda-nass","open-meteo-forecast","usda-wasde","usda-ers-feed-grains","cftc-cot","usda-esr","world-bank-pink-sheet","google-news-rss","fao-food-price","bls-ag-inputs","farmprogress-rss","beefcentral-rss","reliefweb-agriculture","usda-ams","eia-fuel","nasa-power","agriland-rss","beefpoint-rss","faostat","world-bank-wdi","usda-latest-releases","usgs-water"],"historicalDriverIds":["health-alert-to-market-access","export-pull-to-local-basis","logistics-to-local-basis","pasture-stress-to-sale-runs","crop-balance-to-feed-margin","heat-load-to-milk-gain","positioning-to-hedge-margin","geopolitical-shock-to-feed-freight","dairy-margin-to-beef-supply","herd-concentration-to-basis","credit-cost-to-retention","policy-change-to-farm-incentive"],"scenarioIds":["disease-alert","export-disruption","policy-subsidy-rule-change","milk-margin-squeeze","heat-stress-milk-loss","feed-cost-spike","drought-shock","crop-yield-shock","fertilizer-energy-squeeze","geopolitical-shipping-shock","water-restriction-shock","port-freight-shock","credit-interest-squeeze"],"score":null,"summary":{"evidenceItems":342,"highSeverity":76,"sourceFamilies":31,"sourceGraphEdges":33,"historicalDrivers":12,"scenarios":13}},{"id":"trade-currency-border","label":"Trade, currency, and border","question":"Are exports, currency, ports, or borders changing local basis and buyer competition?","headline":"Trade files confirm demand late; currency, policy, port, and border signals can move basis first.","producerAction":"Do not price local cattle without checking export access, FX, port friction, and destination concentration.","refreshCadence":"Daily to monthly","sectors":["beef","dairy","feed","crops"],"sourceIds":["usda-esr","usda-fas","un-comtrade","comex-stat","brazil-bcb-sgs","imf-ifs","eurostat-comext","gdelt-global-news","suez-canal-authority","panama-canal-authority","baltic-exchange","us-drought-monitor","usda-nass","open-meteo-forecast","usda-wasde","usda-ers-feed-grains","cftc-cot","fao-newsroom","usda-aphis","world-bank-pink-sheet","google-news-rss","fao-food-price","bls-ag-inputs","farmprogress-rss","beefcentral-rss","reliefweb-agriculture","usda-ams","eia-fuel","nasa-power","agriland-rss","beefpoint-rss","faostat","world-bank-wdi","usda-latest-releases","usgs-water"],"historicalDriverIds":["export-pull-to-local-basis","logistics-to-local-basis","geopolitical-shock-to-feed-freight","policy-change-to-farm-incentive","pasture-stress-to-sale-runs","crop-balance-to-feed-margin","heat-load-to-milk-gain","positioning-to-hedge-margin","dairy-margin-to-beef-supply","herd-concentration-to-basis","health-alert-to-market-access","credit-cost-to-retention"],"scenarioIds":["export-disruption","port-freight-shock","geopolitical-shipping-shock","policy-subsidy-rule-change","milk-margin-squeeze","heat-stress-milk-loss","feed-cost-spike","drought-shock","disease-alert","crop-yield-shock","fertilizer-energy-squeeze","water-restriction-shock","credit-interest-squeeze"],"score":null,"summary":{"evidenceItems":345,"highSeverity":76,"sourceFamilies":35,"sourceGraphEdges":35,"historicalDrivers":12,"scenarios":13}},{"id":"dairy-cull-margin","label":"Dairy margin and cull flow","question":"Is milk margin changing ration spend, replacement appetite, or dairy-beef supply?","headline":"Milk, feed, energy, and cull-cow values feed directly into dairy and beef supply.","producerAction":"Reprice ration, culling, replacement, and dairy-beef timing together.","refreshCadence":"Weekly to monthly","sectors":["dairy","beef","feed"],"sourceIds":["eu-milk","usda-ers-dairy","usda-ams","eurostat-agri","gdt-events","stats-nz","mexico-siap","world-bank-pink-sheet","usda-fas","us-drought-monitor","usda-nass","open-meteo-forecast","usda-wasde","usda-ers-feed-grains","cftc-cot","usda-esr","fao-newsroom","usda-aphis","google-news-rss","fao-food-price","bls-ag-inputs","farmprogress-rss","beefcentral-rss","gdelt-global-news","reliefweb-agriculture","eia-fuel","nasa-power","agriland-rss","beefpoint-rss","faostat","world-bank-wdi","usda-latest-releases","usgs-water"],"historicalDriverIds":["dairy-margin-to-beef-supply","heat-load-to-milk-gain","crop-balance-to-feed-margin","pasture-stress-to-sale-runs","export-pull-to-local-basis","positioning-to-hedge-margin","geopolitical-shock-to-feed-freight","logistics-to-local-basis","herd-concentration-to-basis","health-alert-to-market-access","credit-cost-to-retention","policy-change-to-farm-incentive"],"scenarioIds":["milk-margin-squeeze","heat-stress-milk-loss","feed-cost-spike","drought-shock","export-disruption","disease-alert","crop-yield-shock","fertilizer-energy-squeeze","geopolitical-shipping-shock","water-restriction-shock","port-freight-shock","policy-subsidy-rule-change","credit-interest-squeeze"],"score":null,"summary":{"evidenceItems":345,"highSeverity":76,"sourceFamilies":33,"sourceGraphEdges":36,"historicalDrivers":12,"scenarios":13}},{"id":"herd-rebuild-replacement","label":"Herd rebuild and replacement","question":"Is the herd rebuilding, liquidating, or shifting weight classes in this region?","headline":"Inventory and slaughter structure move slowly, but they define replacement value and basis risk.","producerAction":"Treat replacement buying as a margin decision, not only a head-count decision.","refreshCadence":"Monthly to annual","sectors":["beef","dairy"],"sourceIds":["usda-nass","faostat","ibge-sidra","mexico-siap","eurostat-agri","abares","statcan-agriculture","usda-fas","us-drought-monitor","open-meteo-forecast","usda-wasde","usda-ers-feed-grains","cftc-cot","usda-esr","fao-newsroom","usda-aphis","world-bank-pink-sheet","google-news-rss","fao-food-price","bls-ag-inputs","farmprogress-rss","beefcentral-rss","gdelt-global-news","reliefweb-agriculture","usda-ams","eia-fuel","nasa-power","agriland-rss","beefpoint-rss","world-bank-wdi","usda-latest-releases","usgs-water"],"historicalDriverIds":["herd-concentration-to-basis","pasture-stress-to-sale-runs","dairy-margin-to-beef-supply","crop-balance-to-feed-margin","heat-load-to-milk-gain","export-pull-to-local-basis","positioning-to-hedge-margin","geopolitical-shock-to-feed-freight","logistics-to-local-basis","health-alert-to-market-access","credit-cost-to-retention","policy-change-to-farm-incentive"],"scenarioIds":["drought-shock","milk-margin-squeeze","credit-interest-squeeze","heat-stress-milk-loss","feed-cost-spike","export-disruption","disease-alert","crop-yield-shock","fertilizer-energy-squeeze","geopolitical-shipping-shock","water-restriction-shock","port-freight-shock","policy-subsidy-rule-change"],"score":null,"summary":{"evidenceItems":343,"highSeverity":76,"sourceFamilies":32,"sourceGraphEdges":36,"historicalDrivers":12,"scenarios":13}},{"id":"input-finance-policy","label":"Inputs, finance, and policy","question":"Are fuel, fertilizer, labor, credit, insurance, or policy changing the farm margin?","headline":"The cattle decision is often an input-cost decision wearing a market-price disguise.","producerAction":"Stress-test cash flow and input coverage before expanding cattle, feed, or crop exposure.","refreshCadence":"Daily to monthly","sectors":["beef","dairy","feed","crops"],"sourceIds":["eia-fuel","bls-ag-inputs","fred-ag-macro","imf-ifs","usda-rma","usda-fsa","world-bank-wdi","world-bank-pink-sheet","gdelt-global-news","reliefweb-agriculture","usda-fas","us-drought-monitor","usda-nass","open-meteo-forecast","usda-wasde","usda-ers-feed-grains","cftc-cot","usda-esr","fao-newsroom","usda-aphis","google-news-rss","fao-food-price","farmprogress-rss","beefcentral-rss","usda-ams","nasa-power","agriland-rss","beefpoint-rss","faostat","usda-latest-releases","usgs-water"],"historicalDriverIds":["credit-cost-to-retention","policy-change-to-farm-incentive","logistics-to-local-basis","geopolitical-shock-to-feed-freight","pasture-stress-to-sale-runs","crop-balance-to-feed-margin","heat-load-to-milk-gain","export-pull-to-local-basis","positioning-to-hedge-margin","dairy-margin-to-beef-supply","herd-concentration-to-basis","health-alert-to-market-access"],"scenarioIds":["fertilizer-energy-squeeze","credit-interest-squeeze","geopolitical-shipping-shock","policy-subsidy-rule-change","milk-margin-squeeze","heat-stress-milk-loss","feed-cost-spike","drought-shock","export-disruption","disease-alert","crop-yield-shock","water-restriction-shock","port-freight-shock"],"score":null,"summary":{"evidenceItems":345,"highSeverity":76,"sourceFamilies":31,"sourceGraphEdges":35,"historicalDrivers":12,"scenarios":13}}],"activeQuestion":{"id":"sell-hold-or-hedge","label":"Sell, hold, or hedge","question":"Does the next weight gain still pay after feed, freight, basis, and buyer risk?","headline":"Starts with cash prices, futures positioning, feed spreads, and local basis before a producer changes sale timing.","producerAction":"Compare today’s bid against the cost and risk of carrying cattle through the next gain window.","refreshCadence":"Daily to weekly","sectors":["beef","feed","crops"],"sourceIds":["usda-ams","cepea-boi","mla-api","cme-livestock","cftc-cot","usda-ers-feed-grains","world-bank-pink-sheet","usda-fas","us-drought-monitor","usda-nass","open-meteo-forecast","usda-wasde","usda-esr","fao-newsroom","usda-aphis","google-news-rss","fao-food-price","bls-ag-inputs","farmprogress-rss","beefcentral-rss","gdelt-global-news","reliefweb-agriculture","eia-fuel","nasa-power","beefpoint-rss","faostat","world-bank-wdi","usda-latest-releases","usgs-water"],"historicalDriverIds":["positioning-to-hedge-margin","crop-balance-to-feed-margin","herd-concentration-to-basis","pasture-stress-to-sale-runs","heat-load-to-milk-gain","export-pull-to-local-basis","geopolitical-shock-to-feed-freight","logistics-to-local-basis","dairy-margin-to-beef-supply","health-alert-to-market-access","credit-cost-to-retention","policy-change-to-farm-incentive"],"scenarioIds":["feed-cost-spike","credit-interest-squeeze","export-disruption","milk-margin-squeeze","heat-stress-milk-loss","drought-shock","disease-alert","crop-yield-shock","fertilizer-energy-squeeze","geopolitical-shipping-shock","water-restriction-shock","port-freight-shock","policy-subsidy-rule-change"],"score":null,"summary":{"evidenceItems":343,"highSeverity":76,"sourceFamilies":29,"sourceGraphEdges":32,"historicalDrivers":12,"scenarios":13}},"evidence":[{"id":"brief:decision-north-america-dairy-margin","kind":"brief","kindLabel":"Decision brief","title":"North America: Dairy margin","detail":"204 evidence items across 29 source families. 52 % D2+ area in the latest U.S. Drought Monitor. D2+ is the official severe-drought footprint to read before assuming pasture, hay, and water pressure stay local.","action":"Price milk, feed, heat load, and cull value together before waiting for the next milk check.","sourceId":"usda-fas","sourceName":"USDA FAS Open Data","sourceUrl":"https://apps.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/app/index.html#/app/downloads","date":"2026-06-06T08:00:00.000Z","confidence":84,"severity":"high","sectors":["beef","dairy","feed","crops","animal-health"],"scenarioIds":["milk-margin-squeeze","heat-stress-milk-loss","feed-cost-spike","drought-shock","export-disruption","disease-alert","crop-yield-shock","fertilizer-energy-squeeze"],"historicalDriverIds":[],"sourceGraphEdgeIds":["ams-price-to-sale-window","drought-to-retention","nass-inventory-to-cycle","fas-trade-to-basis","nasa-weather-to-heat","open-meteo-forecast-to-forward-forage","cftc-positioning-to-hedge-feed-risk","aphis-h5n1-to-dairy-movement"],"evidenceKey":null,"score":4574},{"id":"brief:decision-north-america-sell-hold","kind":"brief","kindLabel":"Decision brief","title":"North America: Sell or hold","detail":"323 evidence items across 32 source families. 52 % D2+ area in the latest U.S. Drought Monitor. D2+ is the official severe-drought footprint to read before assuming pasture, hay, and water pressure stay local.","action":"Compare local bid strength with feed, forage, health, and freight before holding cattle for more gain.","sourceId":"us-drought-monitor","sourceName":"U.S. Drought Monitor","sourceUrl":"https://www.drought.gov/data-maps-tools/us-drought-monitor","date":"2026-06-06T11:37:42.824Z","confidence":83,"severity":"high","sectors":["beef","dairy","feed","crops","animal-health"],"scenarioIds":["drought-shock","export-disruption","feed-cost-spike","disease-alert","crop-yield-shock","milk-margin-squeeze","fertilizer-energy-squeeze","geopolitical-shipping-shock"],"historicalDriverIds":[],"sourceGraphEdgeIds":["ams-price-to-sale-window","drought-to-retention","nass-inventory-to-cycle","fas-trade-to-basis","nasa-weather-to-heat","open-meteo-forecast-to-forward-forage","cftc-positioning-to-hedge-feed-risk","aphis-h5n1-to-dairy-movement"],"evidenceKey":null,"score":4566},{"id":"brief:decision-north-america-water-forage","kind":"brief","kindLabel":"Decision brief","title":"North America: Water and forage","detail":"202 evidence items across 27 source families. 52 % D2+ area in the latest U.S. Drought Monitor. D2+ is the official severe-drought footprint to read before assuming pasture, hay, and water pressure stay local.","action":"Turn weather into pasture budget, water checks, hay replacement, shade, and sale thresholds this week.","sourceId":"us-drought-monitor","sourceName":"U.S. Drought Monitor","sourceUrl":"https://www.drought.gov/data-maps-tools/us-drought-monitor","date":"2026-06-06","confidence":83,"severity":"high","sectors":["beef","dairy","feed","crops","animal-health"],"scenarioIds":["drought-shock","water-restriction-shock","heat-stress-milk-loss","feed-cost-spike","export-disruption","crop-yield-shock","milk-margin-squeeze","fertilizer-energy-squeeze"],"historicalDriverIds":[],"sourceGraphEdgeIds":["ams-price-to-sale-window","drought-to-retention","nass-inventory-to-cycle","fas-trade-to-basis","nasa-weather-to-heat","open-meteo-forecast-to-forward-forage","cftc-positioning-to-hedge-feed-risk","feed-energy-to-breakeven"],"evidenceKey":null,"score":4566}],"sourceFamilies":[{"id":"usda-ams","name":"USDA AMS MyMarketNews","category":"Prices","officialUrl":"https://mymarketnews.ams.usda.gov/mymarketnews-api/faqs","cadence":"Daily and weekly","reliability":"Official","producerUse":"cash cattle, feeder auctions, boxed beef, hay"},{"id":"cepea-boi","name":"CEPEA/ESALQ cattle indicators","category":"Prices","officialUrl":"https://www.cepea.org.br/br/categoria/acessar/boi-94-1.aspx","cadence":"Daily and monthly","reliability":"Research institution","producerUse":"boi gordo, bezerro, corn, soybean meal"},{"id":"mla-api","name":"Meat & Livestock Australia statistics API","category":"Prices","officialUrl":"https://www.mla.com.au/prices-markets/statistics/api/","cadence":"Daily to weekly","reliability":"Public market operator","producerUse":"saleyard prices, EYCI, slaughter, production"},{"id":"cme-livestock","name":"CME livestock and grain markets","category":"Futures","officialUrl":"https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/agriculture/livestock.html","cadence":"Intraday delayed and daily settlement","reliability":"Exchange","producerUse":"futures curve, basis pressure, hedge timing"},{"id":"cftc-cot","name":"CFTC Commitments of Traders","category":"Futures","officialUrl":"https://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/index.htm","cadence":"Weekly","reliability":"Official","producerUse":"live cattle positioning, feeder cattle positioning, corn positioning"},{"id":"usda-ers-feed-grains","name":"USDA ERS Feed Grains Database","category":"Feed","officialUrl":"https://ers.usda.gov/data-products/feed-grains-database/documentation","cadence":"Monthly and annual","reliability":"Official","producerUse":"feed grain supply, animal unit indexes, rail rates, grain shipments"},{"id":"world-bank-pink-sheet","name":"World Bank commodity prices","category":"Macro","officialUrl":"https://www.worldbank.org/en/research/commodity-markets","cadence":"Monthly","reliability":"Official","producerUse":"beef, maize, soybean meal, fertilizer, energy"},{"id":"usda-fas","name":"USDA FAS Open Data","category":"Trade","officialUrl":"https://apps.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/app/index.html#/app/downloads","cadence":"Weekly, monthly, annual","reliability":"Official","producerUse":"exports, imports, production, trade policy"},{"id":"us-drought-monitor","name":"U.S. Drought Monitor","category":"Weather","officialUrl":"https://www.drought.gov/data-maps-tools/us-drought-monitor","cadence":"Weekly","reliability":"Official","producerUse":"drought class, pasture stress, water pressure"},{"id":"usda-nass","name":"USDA NASS QuickStats and ESMIS reports","category":"Inventory","officialUrl":"https://esmis.nal.usda.gov/","cadence":"Weekly, monthly, quarterly, annual","reliability":"Official","producerUse":"cattle inventory, pasture condition, corn production, hay stocks"},{"id":"open-meteo-forecast","name":"Open-Meteo global weather forecast","category":"Weather","officialUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","cadence":"Daily and hourly","reliability":"Research institution","producerUse":"7-day rainfall forecast, temperature forecast, apparent heat stress, reference evapotranspiration, forage recovery"},{"id":"usda-wasde","name":"USDA WASDE historical data","category":"Crops","officialUrl":"https://www.usda.gov/historical-wasde-report-data","cadence":"Monthly","reliability":"Official","producerUse":"corn balance sheet, soybean balance sheet, feed use, dairy forecasts"}],"sourceGraph":[{"id":"ams-price-to-sale-window","sourceId":"usda-ams","sourceName":"USDA AMS MyMarketNews","signal":"Cash cattle, feeder cattle, auctions, boxed beef","driver":"Local bid strength and packer leverage","affects":"Sale timing, weight class target, and hedge urgency","producerDecision":"Sell now, add pounds, or price-protect cattle before bids soften.","lag":"0-2 days","confidence":91,"sectors":["beef","dairy"]},{"id":"drought-to-retention","sourceId":"us-drought-monitor","sourceName":"U.S. Drought Monitor","signal":"Drought class, weekly narrative, pasture stress","driver":"Forage pressure and early liquidation risk","affects":"Cow retention, hay demand, calf movement, and replacement price","producerDecision":"Compare forage inventory against the value of carrying cattle longer.","lag":"1-4 weeks","confidence":88,"sectors":["beef","dairy","feed"]},{"id":"wasde-feed-balance-to-cattle-margin","sourceId":"usda-wasde","sourceName":"USDA WASDE historical data","signal":"Corn, soybean meal, hay, and dairy/feed balance sheets","driver":"Forward feed availability and ration cost","affects":"Backgrounding margin, finishing days, milk-feed spread, and crop planting incentives","producerDecision":"Use monthly balance-sheet revisions to decide whether to lock feed, sell lighter, or carry cattle longer.","lag":"1-12 months","confidence":87,"sectors":["feed","crops","beef","dairy"]},{"id":"nass-inventory-to-cycle","sourceId":"usda-nass","sourceName":"USDA NASS QuickStats and ESMIS reports","signal":"Inventory, placements, pasture, hay, crop data","driver":"Herd cycle, feeder supply, and feed availability","affects":"Replacement strategy, retained heifers, and forward feeder supply","producerDecision":"Decide whether scarce replacement animals are worth keeping or selling.","lag":"1 month to 1 year","confidence":86,"sectors":["beef","dairy","feed"]},{"id":"fas-trade-to-basis","sourceId":"usda-fas","sourceName":"USDA FAS Open Data","signal":"Exports, imports, PSD, GAIN reports","driver":"Export pull and trade-policy pressure","affects":"Processor bids, regional basis, offal value, and cull cow demand","producerDecision":"Watch buyer access before committing volume into a weak local bid.","lag":"1-6 weeks","confidence":84,"sectors":["beef","dairy"]},{"id":"aphis-h5n1-to-dairy-movement","sourceId":"usda-aphis","sourceName":"USDA APHIS reportable diseases","signal":"H5N1 livestock guidance, dairy cattle movement updates, and biosecurity notices","driver":"Dairy cattle movement and biosecurity risk","affects":"Interstate movement, sale timing, replacement buying, milk logistics, and cull-cow flow","producerDecision":"Check APHIS guidance before moving lactating dairy cattle, buying replacements, or changing biosecurity routines.","lag":"Same day to 2 weeks","confidence":84,"sectors":["animal-health","dairy","beef"]},{"id":"ers-feed-grains-to-breakeven","sourceId":"usda-ers-feed-grains","sourceName":"USDA ERS Feed Grains Database","signal":"Feed grain supply, animal unit indexes, rail rates, and grain shipments","driver":"Feed breakeven and logistics pressure","affects":"Feeder bids, ration substitutions, hay demand, and feedlot entry weights","producerDecision":"Compare feed grain and transport trends before buying feeders or delaying sale dates.","lag":"2-8 weeks","confidence":84,"sectors":["feed","crops","beef","dairy"]},{"id":"nasa-weather-to-heat","sourceId":"nasa-power","sourceName":"NASA POWER","signal":"Temperature, humidity, wind, rainfall by coordinate","driver":"Heat load, water stress, and pasture regrowth","affects":"Gain, intake, fertility, death loss risk, and shade or water planning","producerDecision":"Adjust transport, feeding time, stocking rate, and water checks before stress peaks.","lag":"0-10 days","confidence":83,"sectors":["beef","dairy","feed"]},{"id":"export-sales-to-buyer-pull","sourceId":"usda-esr","sourceName":"USDA Export Sales Reporting","signal":"Weekly export commitments and shipments by commodity and destination","driver":"Export buyer pull before customs data confirms it","affects":"Beef cutout support, grain basis, local processor bids, and feed ingredient demand","producerDecision":"Watch export-sales acceleration as an early signal for stronger cash bids or tighter feed.","lag":"1-5 weeks","confidence":83,"sectors":["beef","feed","crops","dairy"]},{"id":"fao-food-price-to-farm-margin","sourceId":"fao-food-price","sourceName":"FAO food price indices","signal":"FAO meat, dairy, cereal, oil, sugar, and headline food price indices","driver":"Global food, feed, and protein price pressure","affects":"Export pull, milk margin, ration cost, crop rotation, food inflation, and local bid resilience","producerDecision":"Compare global food index direction with local cattle, milk, feed, and crop bids before treating a market move as local noise.","lag":"1-12 months","confidence":82,"sectors":["beef","dairy","feed","crops"]},{"id":"water-to-stocking-irrigation","sourceId":"usgs-water","sourceName":"USGS water data","signal":"Streamflow, reservoir, groundwater, and water-quality series","driver":"Water availability for pasture, irrigation, feed crops, and cattle","affects":"Stocking rate, crop yield, hay demand, heat-stress mitigation, and forced sale risk","producerDecision":"Tie stocking and planting decisions to measured water, not only rainfall.","lag":"0-12 weeks","confidence":81,"sectors":["feed","crops","beef","dairy"]},{"id":"cftc-positioning-to-hedge-feed-risk","sourceId":"cftc-cot","sourceName":"CFTC Commitments of Traders","signal":"Managed money, commercial, and open-interest positioning in live cattle, feeder cattle, corn, and soybean meal","driver":"Speculative positioning and commercial hedge pressure","affects":"Hedge timing, basis risk, feeder bids, feed coverage, and retained-ownership risk","producerDecision":"Use COT positioning as a weekly stress check before leaving cattle, corn, or soybean-meal exposure unprotected.","lag":"Same week to 8 weeks","confidence":80,"sectors":["beef","dairy","feed","crops"]}],"historicalDrivers":[{"id":"pasture-stress-to-sale-runs","driver":"Pasture stress becomes sale pressure","lookbackWindow":"30-120 days","forwardWindow":"2-16 weeks","lag":"Pasture stress usually hits feed buying first, sale runs second, and replacement prices last.","leadingSignals":["Soil moisture drops below seasonal median","Pasture condition ratings deteriorate","Hay and supplement quotes firm before auction volume rises"],"forwardEffects":["More calves and cull cows move earlier","Replacement animals face discount risk in dry regions","Feed cost can erase the value of extra gain"],"producerDecision":"Move from calendar-based selling to forage-days and feed-margin selling.","confidence":86,"sourceIds":["us-drought-monitor","nasa-power","copernicus-cds","bom-climate","brazil-inmet","mexico-siap","gdelt-global-news"],"sectors":["beef","dairy","feed","crops"]},{"id":"crop-balance-to-feed-margin","driver":"Crop balance becomes feed margin","lookbackWindow":"90 days to 5 years","forwardWindow":"1-18 months","lag":"Acreage and crop condition lead production; production leads feed price; feed price leads cattle and milk margins.","leadingSignals":["Acreage, crop progress, and soil moisture shift together","Balance-sheet revisions tighten ending stocks","Rail, freight, or port pressure widens local basis"],"forwardEffects":["Backgrounding and finishing margins compress","Dairy ration spend rises before cull flow changes","Crop producers may gain price opportunity while livestock producers face cost risk"],"producerDecision":"Use the crop balance to decide feed coverage, hay buying, grain pricing, and stocking rate.","confidence":84,"sourceIds":["usda-wasde","usda-nass","usda-ers-feed-grains","conab","comex-stat","mexico-siap","faostat","gdelt-global-news"],"sectors":["feed","crops","beef","dairy"]},{"id":"health-alert-to-market-access","driver":"Animal-health alerts become market-access friction","lookbackWindow":"Same day to 5 years","forwardWindow":"Same day to 12 months","lag":"A disease notice can affect movement immediately, then trade access and buyer confidence over weeks or months.","leadingSignals":["Official disease notice or surveillance update","Movement guidance, testing rules, or border language changes","Buyer discounts appear before broad price averages adjust"],"forwardEffects":["Movement costs and delays rise","Export eligibility or buyer confidence can narrow","Biosecurity spend becomes part of the margin calculation"],"producerDecision":"Check health status before moving cattle, buying replacements, or signing export-sensitive commitments.","confidence":83,"sourceIds":["woah-wahis","usda-aphis","argentina-senasa","paraguay-senacsa","australia-daff","gdelt-global-news"],"sectors":["animal-health","beef","dairy"]},{"id":"heat-load-to-milk-gain","driver":"Heat load becomes milk and weight-gain drag","lookbackWindow":"7-90 days","forwardWindow":"Same day to 12 weeks","lag":"Heat and humidity affect intake first, then milk, weight gain, conception, and sale timing.","leadingSignals":["Temperature-humidity pressure rises for multiple days","Water demand and night cooling fail to reset","Feed intake falls before production reports update"],"forwardEffects":["Milk output and components weaken","Finishing cattle gain less efficiently","Water, shade, and ration timing become margin controls"],"producerDecision":"Move heat mitigation and ration timing ahead of sale-weight or milk-output assumptions.","confidence":82,"sourceIds":["nasa-power","noaa-cpc","copernicus-cds","brazil-inmet","world-bank-climate"],"sectors":["dairy","beef","feed","crops"]},{"id":"export-pull-to-local-basis","driver":"Export pull changes local basis","lookbackWindow":"4-52 weeks","forwardWindow":"1-12 weeks","lag":"Export sales lead shipments; shipments lead customs totals; customs totals confirm structural demand.","leadingSignals":["Weekly sales or attaché reports change before monthly trade files","Destination concentration rises","Currency makes local supply cheaper or dearer to importers"],"forwardEffects":["Processor bids widen or narrow by export access","Feed and crop basis shifts around ports and corridors","Sanitary or border events can erase the signal quickly"],"producerDecision":"Price cattle and crops with local basis plus destination exposure, not only the national headline.","confidence":82,"sourceIds":["usda-esr","usda-fas","un-comtrade","brazil-mapa-agrostat","comex-stat","mexico-siap","brazil-bcb-sgs","gdelt-global-news"],"sectors":["beef","dairy","feed","crops"]},{"id":"dairy-margin-to-beef-supply","driver":"Dairy margins become beef supply","lookbackWindow":"4-26 weeks","forwardWindow":"2-20 weeks","lag":"Milk price and feed cost hit dairy margins before cull cow flow and beef supply respond.","leadingSignals":["Milk-feed spread narrows","Dairy auction prices weaken","Feed and energy prices rise together"],"forwardEffects":["Cull cows enter beef supply","Replacement appetite weakens","Milk output can fall after ration cuts"],"producerDecision":"Reprice ration, cull timing, and replacement purchases before monthly milk checks settle.","confidence":81,"sourceIds":["eu-milk","gdt-events","usda-ers-dairy","usda-ams","mexico-siap","world-bank-pink-sheet","ibge-sidra","brazil-bcb-sgs","gdelt-global-news"],"sectors":["dairy","beef","feed"]},{"id":"geopolitical-shock-to-feed-freight","driver":"Geopolitical shocks become feed, freight, and basis risk","lookbackWindow":"Same day to 3 years","forwardWindow":"Same week to 12 months","lag":"Conflict, sanctions, or shipping-route stress can move fuel, fertilizer, grain, and freight before farmgate cattle or milk prices adjust.","leadingSignals":["Red Sea, Black Sea, canal, port, or border headlines mention grain, fertilizer, fuel, or livestock routes","Freight, fuel, fertilizer, or grain indexes move before delivered feed quotes reset","Destination or route risk weakens the translation from global price to local bid"],"forwardEffects":["Delivered feed and fertilizer become more expensive or less reliable","Local basis can diverge from headline futures or export values","Local feed substitution, earlier sale timing, or destination hedging becomes valuable"],"producerDecision":"Treat global conflict and shipping risk as a delivered-cost problem before changing sale timing, feed coverage, or crop-input purchases.","confidence":79,"sourceIds":["gdelt-global-news","reliefweb-agriculture","fao-giews","suez-canal-authority","panama-canal-authority","baltic-exchange","world-bank-pink-sheet","eia-fuel","un-comtrade","usda-oce-port-grain"],"sectors":["beef","dairy","feed","crops"]},{"id":"credit-cost-to-retention","driver":"Credit cost changes retention and input timing","lookbackWindow":"30 days to 5 years","forwardWindow":"1 month to 24 months","lag":"Interest and credit changes hit input prepay and replacements before they show up in herd-size data.","leadingSignals":["Policy rates, farm credit, or inflation move together","Replacement purchases slow even when cattle prices look attractive","Input prepay windows get shorter"],"forwardEffects":["Retained ownership becomes harder to finance","Crop input timing can shift acreage and feed supply","Dairy ration and replacement choices tighten"],"producerDecision":"Run feed, replacement, and planting choices through a cash-flow calendar before chasing headline price.","confidence":79,"sourceIds":["fred-ag-macro","imf-ifs","brazil-bcb-sgs","world-bank-wdi","bls-ag-inputs"],"sectors":["beef","dairy","feed","crops"]},{"id":"positioning-to-hedge-margin","driver":"Futures positioning becomes hedge and margin pressure","lookbackWindow":"4-52 weeks","forwardWindow":"1-8 weeks","lag":"COT positioning shifts before many cash producers feel the basis move; the risk shows up later in hedge cost, feed coverage, and retained ownership.","leadingSignals":["Managed money exits long cattle exposure","Corn or soybean-meal shorts cover quickly","Open interest changes while cash bids lag"],"forwardEffects":["Hedge urgency rises before local bids fully reprice","Feed coverage becomes more valuable when feed shorts unwind","Retained ownership gets riskier when cattle longs liquidate"],"producerDecision":"Check COT before deciding to hold unhedged weight, delay feed coverage, or assume today’s basis will still be there next month.","confidence":78,"sourceIds":["cftc-cot","cme-livestock","usda-ams","world-bank-pink-sheet"],"sectors":["beef","dairy","feed","crops"]},{"id":"logistics-to-local-basis","driver":"Logistics shocks become local basis gaps","lookbackWindow":"7 days to 3 years","forwardWindow":"Same week to 9 months","lag":"Freight and port disruption can widen local basis before national price series register the stress.","leadingSignals":["Fuel, port, rail, or border news moves before farmgate averages","Delivered feed diverges from board or benchmark price","Destination prices stop translating to local bids"],"forwardEffects":["Cattle, hay, milk, grain, and fertilizer spreads widen by corridor","Local arbitrage opportunities can appear","Remote producers face discount risk even in strong headline markets"],"producerDecision":"Price the delivered destination, not the benchmark, before moving cattle, feed, milk, or crop volume.","confidence":78,"sourceIds":["eia-fuel","un-comtrade","brazil-mapa-agrostat","comex-stat","gdelt-global-news"],"sectors":["beef","dairy","feed","crops"]}],"scenarios":[{"id":"feed-cost-spike","name":"Feed cost spike","sector":"feed","defaultIntensity":35,"description":"Corn, hay, soybean meal, fuel, or freight costs rise faster than cattle value.","producerDecision":"Recalculate whether the next gain period is still worth feeding.","outputs":[{"label":"Feed breakeven pressure","baseline":34,"unit":"%","perIntensityPoint":0.66,"direction":"higher-is-risk"},{"label":"Margin cushion","baseline":24,"unit":"%","perIntensityPoint":-0.45,"direction":"lower-is-risk"},{"label":"Freight sensitivity","baseline":18,"unit":"%","perIntensityPoint":0.31,"direction":"higher-is-risk"}]},{"id":"credit-interest-squeeze","name":"Credit and interest squeeze","sector":"beef","defaultIntensity":27,"description":"Higher financing cost changes replacement purchases, retained ownership, crop inputs, equipment, and working capital.","producerDecision":"Run every hold, buy, feed, and planting decision through cash-flow timing, not only headline price.","outputs":[{"label":"Replacement finance drag","baseline":24,"unit":"%","perIntensityPoint":0.62,"direction":"higher-is-risk"},{"label":"Retained ownership risk","baseline":19,"unit":"%","perIntensityPoint":0.48,"direction":"higher-is-risk"},{"label":"Input prepay flexibility","baseline":54,"unit":"%","perIntensityPoint":-0.5,"direction":"lower-is-risk"}]},{"id":"export-disruption","name":"Export or border disruption","sector":"beef","defaultIntensity":30,"description":"A sanitary, policy, currency, or logistics event changes buyer access.","producerDecision":"Do not assume local bids are stable when export channels or border rules move.","outputs":[{"label":"Basis risk","baseline":26,"unit":"%","perIntensityPoint":0.72,"direction":"higher-is-risk"},{"label":"Cull cow pressure","baseline":18,"unit":"%","perIntensityPoint":0.33,"direction":"higher-is-risk"},{"label":"Buyer competition","baseline":46,"unit":"%","perIntensityPoint":-0.51,"direction":"lower-is-risk"}]},{"id":"drought-shock","name":"Drought tightens forage","sector":"feed","defaultIntensity":42,"description":"Pasture weakens, hay gets tighter, and more cows or calves can move earlier than planned.","producerDecision":"Check forage inventory, water, and the value of selling lighter cattle before everyone else is forced to.","outputs":[{"label":"Hay cost risk","baseline":28,"unit":"%","perIntensityPoint":0.72,"direction":"higher-is-risk"},{"label":"Early sale pressure","baseline":22,"unit":"%","perIntensityPoint":0.58,"direction":"higher-is-risk"},{"label":"Pasture carrying days","baseline":64,"unit":"days","perIntensityPoint":-0.42,"direction":"lower-is-risk"}]},{"id":"crop-yield-shock","name":"Crop yield shock","sector":"crops","defaultIntensity":38,"description":"Soil moisture, heat, and rainfall patterns point to lower crop yields before harvest data is published.","producerDecision":"Decide whether to protect feed needs, price grain, adjust planting, or buy hay before local shortages are obvious.","outputs":[{"label":"Feed cost pressure","baseline":24,"unit":"%","perIntensityPoint":0.64,"direction":"higher-is-risk"},{"label":"Yield downside","baseline":18,"unit":"%","perIntensityPoint":0.52,"direction":"higher-is-risk"},{"label":"Hedging urgency","baseline":31,"unit":"%","perIntensityPoint":0.48,"direction":"higher-is-risk"}]},{"id":"fertilizer-energy-squeeze","name":"Fertilizer and energy squeeze","sector":"crops","defaultIntensity":32,"description":"Fertilizer, diesel, freight, and credit costs rise before crop or cattle prices fully adjust.","producerDecision":"Stress-test planting, feed procurement, and replacement purchases against higher working-capital cost.","outputs":[{"label":"Input-cost drag","baseline":29,"unit":"%","perIntensityPoint":0.7,"direction":"higher-is-risk"},{"label":"Planting margin","baseline":46,"unit":"%","perIntensityPoint":-0.43,"direction":"lower-is-risk"},{"label":"Cash-flow risk","baseline":21,"unit":"%","perIntensityPoint":0.54,"direction":"higher-is-risk"}]},{"id":"geopolitical-shipping-shock","name":"War and shipping disruption","sector":"feed","defaultIntensity":37,"description":"Conflict, sanctions, canal disruption, or route risk changes grain, fertilizer, fuel, freight, and protein trade costs.","producerDecision":"Before holding cattle for more gain, check whether war or shipping risk has changed delivered feed, fertilizer, freight, or buyer access.","outputs":[{"label":"Delivered-input risk","baseline":24,"unit":"%","perIntensityPoint":0.69,"direction":"higher-is-risk"},{"label":"Basis and freight drag","baseline":21,"unit":"%","perIntensityPoint":0.64,"direction":"higher-is-risk"},{"label":"Local substitution value","baseline":30,"unit":"%","perIntensityPoint":0.35,"direction":"higher-is-opportunity"}]},{"id":"water-restriction-shock","name":"Water restriction shock","sector":"crops","defaultIntensity":34,"description":"Measured water shortage changes irrigation, pasture recovery, crop-feed yield, heat mitigation, and stocking rate.","producerDecision":"Treat water as the first constraint before adding animals, delaying sales, or counting on feed crops.","outputs":[{"label":"Stocking constraint","baseline":24,"unit":"%","perIntensityPoint":0.68,"direction":"higher-is-risk"},{"label":"Irrigation/feed-yield risk","baseline":20,"unit":"%","perIntensityPoint":0.61,"direction":"higher-is-risk"},{"label":"Forced-sale pressure","baseline":18,"unit":"%","perIntensityPoint":0.49,"direction":"higher-is-risk"}]}],"decisionChains":[{"id":"path-north-america-event-fao-newsroom-rss-strait-of-hormuz-time-running-out-to-avert-global-food-security-cri","title":"North America: Strait of Hormuz: Time running out to avert global food security crisis, FAO warns","currentSignal":"FAO Newsroom published a war, sanctions, or shipping-route item. Read it as a delivered feed, fertilizer, fuel, freight, and buyer-access signal.","pastPattern":"Same day to 3 years history usually shows up in Same week to 12 months: Delivered feed and fertilizer become more expensive or less reliable Local basis can diverge from headline futures or export values Local feed substitution, earlier sale timing, or destination hedging becomes valuable","forwardScenario":"War and shipping disruption: Conflict, sanctions, canal disruption, or route risk changes grain, fertilizer, fuel, freight, and protein trade costs.","producerDecision":"Check delivered feed, fertilizer, fuel, freight, and route exposure before holding cattle longer or locking crop-input purchases.","sourceId":"fao-newsroom","sourceName":"FAO Newsroom","sourceUrl":"https://www.fao.org/newsroom/detail/strait-of-hormuz--time-running-out-to-avert-global-food-security-crisis--fao-warns/en","severity":"high","confidence":82,"score":140,"evidenceIds":["fao-newsroom-rss-strait-of-hormuz-time-running-out-to-avert-global-food-security-crisis-fao-warns-2026-05-26"],"scenarioIds":["geopolitical-shipping-shock","port-freight-shock","feed-cost-spike"],"historicalDriverIds":["geopolitical-shock-to-feed-freight","logistics-to-local-basis"],"sourceGraphEdgeIds":["gdelt-news-to-market-event-risk","eia-diesel-to-freight-feed-cost","feed-energy-to-breakeven"]},{"id":"path-north-america-event-fao-newsroom-rss-strait-of-hormuz-conflict-threatens-global-food-prices-as-fao-warns","title":"North America: Strait of Hormuz conflict threatens global food prices as FAO warns time is running out","currentSignal":"FAO Newsroom published a war, sanctions, or shipping-route item. Read it as a delivered feed, fertilizer, fuel, freight, and buyer-access signal.","pastPattern":"Same day to 3 years history usually shows up in Same week to 12 months: Delivered feed and fertilizer become more expensive or less reliable Local basis can diverge from headline futures or export values Local feed substitution, earlier sale timing, or destination hedging becomes valuable","forwardScenario":"War and shipping disruption: Conflict, sanctions, canal disruption, or route risk changes grain, fertilizer, fuel, freight, and protein trade costs.","producerDecision":"Check delivered feed, fertilizer, fuel, freight, and route exposure before holding cattle longer or locking crop-input purchases.","sourceId":"fao-newsroom","sourceName":"FAO Newsroom","sourceUrl":"https://www.fao.org/newsroom/detail/strait-of-hormuz-conflict-threatens-global-food-prices-as-fao-warns-time-is-running-out/en","severity":"high","confidence":82,"score":140,"evidenceIds":["fao-newsroom-rss-strait-of-hormuz-conflict-threatens-global-food-prices-as-fao-warns-time-is-running--2026-05-20"],"scenarioIds":["geopolitical-shipping-shock","port-freight-shock","feed-cost-spike"],"historicalDriverIds":["geopolitical-shock-to-feed-freight","logistics-to-local-basis"],"sourceGraphEdgeIds":["gdelt-news-to-market-event-risk","eia-diesel-to-freight-feed-cost","feed-energy-to-breakeven"]},{"id":"path-north-america-event-fao-newsroom-rss-strait-of-hormuz-crisis-fertilizer-scarcity-will-affect-next-harves","title":"North America: Strait of Hormuz crisis: Fertilizer scarcity will affect next harvests and food supplies, FAO warns","currentSignal":"FAO Newsroom published a war, sanctions, or shipping-route item. Read it as a delivered feed, fertilizer, fuel, freight, and buyer-access signal.","pastPattern":"Same day to 3 years history usually shows up in Same week to 12 months: Delivered feed and fertilizer become more expensive or less reliable Local basis can diverge from headline futures or export values Local feed substitution, earlier sale timing, or destination hedging becomes valuable","forwardScenario":"War and shipping disruption: Conflict, sanctions, canal disruption, or route risk changes grain, fertilizer, fuel, freight, and protein trade costs.","producerDecision":"Check delivered feed, fertilizer, fuel, freight, and route exposure before holding cattle longer or locking crop-input purchases.","sourceId":"fao-newsroom","sourceName":"FAO Newsroom","sourceUrl":"https://www.fao.org/newsroom/detail/strait-of-hormuz-crisis--fertilizer-scarcity-will-affect-next-harvests-and-food-supplies--fao-warns/en","severity":"high","confidence":82,"score":140,"evidenceIds":["fao-newsroom-rss-strait-of-hormuz-crisis-fertilizer-scarcity-will-affect-next-harvests-and-food-suppl-2026-05-07"],"scenarioIds":["geopolitical-shipping-shock","port-freight-shock","feed-cost-spike"],"historicalDriverIds":["geopolitical-shock-to-feed-freight","logistics-to-local-basis"],"sourceGraphEdgeIds":["gdelt-news-to-market-event-risk","eia-diesel-to-freight-feed-cost","feed-energy-to-breakeven"]},{"id":"path-north-america-impact-open-meteo-water-demand-southern-plains-water-heat-impact","title":"North America: Southern Plains 7-day water demand forecast: heat and water demand watch","currentSignal":"Water demand, shade and handling windows, dairy milk yield, pasture regrowth, hay substitution, irrigation demand, and feed-crop stress.","pastPattern":"30-120 days history usually shows up in 2-16 weeks: More calves and cull cows move earlier Replacement animals face discount risk in dry regions Feed cost can erase the value of extra gain","forwardScenario":"Drought tightens forage: Pasture weakens, hay gets tighter, and more cows or calves can move earlier than planned.","producerDecision":"Move water checks, shade, transport timing, and dairy heat-abatement ahead of the forecast peak before assuming cattle will keep eating and gaining normally.","sourceId":"open-meteo-forecast","sourceName":"Open-Meteo global weather forecast","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","severity":"high","confidence":88,"score":139,"evidenceIds":["open-meteo-water-demand-southern-plains-water-heat-impact","open-meteo-water-demand-southern-plains"],"scenarioIds":["drought-shock","milk-margin-squeeze","crop-yield-shock","feed-cost-spike"],"historicalDriverIds":["pasture-stress-to-sale-runs","heat-load-to-milk-gain","crop-balance-to-feed-margin"],"sourceGraphEdgeIds":["open-meteo-forecast-to-forward-forage","nasa-weather-to-heat"]},{"id":"path-north-america-impact-usda-esr-sorghum-weekly-exports-buyer-pull-impact","title":"North America: Sorghum export pull weekly exports changed weekly buyer pull","currentSignal":"Corn, sorghum, and meal export pull can change domestic feed basis, ration coverage, feeder bids, and gain economics.","pastPattern":"90 days to 5 years history usually shows up in 1-18 months: Backgrounding and finishing margins compress Dairy ration spend rises before cull flow changes Crop producers may gain price opportunity while livestock producers face cost risk","forwardScenario":"Feed cost spike: Corn, hay, soybean meal, fuel, or freight costs rise faster than cattle value.","producerDecision":"Check delivered feed and basis before buying feeders, holding cattle for more weight, or leaving protein needs uncovered.","sourceId":"usda-esr","sourceName":"USDA Export Sales Reporting","sourceUrl":"https://apps.fas.usda.gov/export-sales/esrd1.html","severity":"high","confidence":84,"score":132,"evidenceIds":["usda-esr-sorghum-weekly-exports-buyer-pull-impact","usda-esr-sorghum-weekly-exports"],"scenarioIds":["feed-cost-spike","crop-yield-shock","export-disruption"],"historicalDriverIds":["crop-balance-to-feed-margin"],"sourceGraphEdgeIds":["export-sales-to-buyer-pull","fas-trade-to-basis","wasde-feed-balance-to-cattle-margin","feed-energy-to-breakeven"]},{"id":"path-north-america-impact-usda-nass-crop-progress-pasture-good-excellent-2026-06-01-official-report-impact","title":"North America: U.S. pasture good/excellent changes the official crop progress read","currentSignal":"Feed coverage, hay buying, pasture carrying days, local basis, feeder bids, and whether extra retained weight still pays.","pastPattern":"30-120 days history usually shows up in 2-16 weeks: More calves and cull cows move earlier Replacement animals face discount risk in dry regions Feed cost can erase the value of extra gain","forwardScenario":"Drought tightens forage: Pasture weakens, hay gets tighter, and more cows or calves can move earlier than planned.","producerDecision":"Move this NASS read into the feed plan now: count forage days, price hay and grain, then compare selling lighter cattle against buying another gain period.","sourceId":"usda-nass","sourceName":"USDA NASS QuickStats and ESMIS reports","sourceUrl":"https://esmis.nal.usda.gov/","severity":"high","confidence":91,"score":130,"evidenceIds":["usda-nass-crop-progress-pasture-good-excellent-2026-06-01-official-report-impact","usda-nass-crop-progress-pasture-good-excellent-2026-06-01"],"scenarioIds":["drought-shock","feed-cost-spike"],"historicalDriverIds":["pasture-stress-to-sale-runs","crop-balance-to-feed-margin"],"sourceGraphEdgeIds":["nass-inventory-to-cycle","drought-to-retention","feed-energy-to-breakeven"]},{"id":"path-north-america-impact-usda-nass-crop-progress-pasture-poor-very-poor-2026-06-01-official-report-impact","title":"North America: U.S. pasture poor/very poor changes the official crop progress read","currentSignal":"Feed coverage, hay buying, pasture carrying days, local basis, feeder bids, and whether extra retained weight still pays.","pastPattern":"30-120 days history usually shows up in 2-16 weeks: More calves and cull cows move earlier Replacement animals face discount risk in dry regions Feed cost can erase the value of extra gain","forwardScenario":"Drought tightens forage: Pasture weakens, hay gets tighter, and more cows or calves can move earlier than planned.","producerDecision":"Move this NASS read into the feed plan now: count forage days, price hay and grain, then compare selling lighter cattle against buying another gain period.","sourceId":"usda-nass","sourceName":"USDA NASS QuickStats and ESMIS reports","sourceUrl":"https://esmis.nal.usda.gov/","severity":"high","confidence":91,"score":130,"evidenceIds":["usda-nass-crop-progress-pasture-poor-very-poor-2026-06-01-official-report-impact","usda-nass-crop-progress-pasture-poor-very-poor-2026-06-01"],"scenarioIds":["drought-shock","feed-cost-spike"],"historicalDriverIds":["pasture-stress-to-sale-runs","crop-balance-to-feed-margin"],"sourceGraphEdgeIds":["nass-inventory-to-cycle","drought-to-retention","feed-energy-to-breakeven"]},{"id":"path-north-america-impact-cftc-cot-corn-hedge-margin-impact","title":"North America: Corn COT positioning changes hedge and feed-risk timing","currentSignal":"Delivered feed cost, ration coverage, feedlot breakeven, crop selling, hay substitution, and retained weight.","pastPattern":"4-52 weeks history usually shows up in 1-8 weeks: Hedge urgency rises before local bids fully reprice Feed coverage becomes more valuable when feed shorts unwind Retained ownership gets riskier when cattle longs liquidate","forwardScenario":"Feed cost spike: Corn, hay, soybean meal, fuel, or freight costs rise faster than cattle value.","producerDecision":"Use the COT feed read with local corn, hay, freight, and weather before delaying ration coverage or holding cattle for extra gain.","sourceId":"cftc-cot","sourceName":"CFTC Commitments of Traders","sourceUrl":"https://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/index.htm","severity":"high","confidence":86,"score":129,"evidenceIds":["cftc-cot-corn-hedge-margin-impact","cftc-cot-corn"],"scenarioIds":["feed-cost-spike","crop-yield-shock"],"historicalDriverIds":["positioning-to-hedge-margin","crop-balance-to-feed-margin"],"sourceGraphEdgeIds":["cftc-positioning-to-hedge-feed-risk","feed-energy-to-breakeven","wasde-feed-balance-to-cattle-margin"]}],"citationText":"North America decision cockpit answers \"Does the next weight gain still pay after feed, freight, basis, and buyer risk?\" with 3 evidence items, 12 sources, 10 historical rules, and 8 scenarios.","shareableMarkdown":"# North America decision cockpit\n\nChoose a producer question and see current signals, sources, history, scenarios, and actions.\n\n## Producer question\n\nDoes the next weight gain still pay after feed, freight, basis, and buyer risk?\n\n## Practical answer\n\nStarts with cash prices, futures positioning, feed spreads, and local basis before a producer changes sale timing.\n\nDecision: Compare today’s bid against the cost and risk of carrying cattle through the next gain window.\n\n## Current signals\n\n- North America: Dairy margin: 204 evidence items across 29 source families. 52 % D2+ area in the latest U.S. Drought Monitor. D2+ is the official severe-drought footprint to read before assuming pasture, hay, and water pressure stay local. Decision: Price milk, feed, heat load, and cull value together before waiting for the next milk check. Source: USDA FAS Open Data (https://apps.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/app/index.html#/app/downloads).\n- North America: Sell or hold: 323 evidence items across 32 source families. 52 % D2+ area in the latest U.S. Drought Monitor. D2+ is the official severe-drought footprint to read before assuming pasture, hay, and water pressure stay local. Decision: Compare local bid strength with feed, forage, health, and freight before holding cattle for more gain. Source: U.S. Drought Monitor (https://www.drought.gov/data-maps-tools/us-drought-monitor).\n- North America: Water and forage: 202 evidence items across 27 source families. 52 % D2+ area in the latest U.S. Drought Monitor. D2+ is the official severe-drought footprint to read before assuming pasture, hay, and water pressure stay local. Decision: Turn weather into pasture budget, water checks, hay replacement, shade, and sale thresholds this week. Source: U.S. Drought Monitor (https://www.drought.gov/data-maps-tools/us-drought-monitor).\n\n## Historical pattern\n\n- Pasture stress becomes sale pressure: 30-120 days -> 2-16 weeks. Pasture stress usually hits feed buying first, sale runs second, and replacement prices last. Decision: Move from calendar-based selling to forage-days and feed-margin selling.\n- Crop balance becomes feed margin: 90 days to 5 years -> 1-18 months. Acreage and crop condition lead production; production leads feed price; feed price leads cattle and milk margins. Decision: Use the crop balance to decide feed coverage, hay buying, grain pricing, and stocking rate.\n- Animal-health alerts become market-access friction: Same day to 5 years -> Same day to 12 months. A disease notice can affect movement immediately, then trade access and buyer confidence over weeks or months. Decision: Check health status before moving cattle, buying replacements, or signing export-sensitive commitments.\n- Heat load becomes milk and weight-gain drag: 7-90 days -> Same day to 12 weeks. Heat and humidity affect intake first, then milk, weight gain, conception, and sale timing. Decision: Move heat mitigation and ration timing ahead of sale-weight or milk-output assumptions.\n- Export pull changes local basis: 4-52 weeks -> 1-12 weeks. Export sales lead shipments; shipments lead customs totals; customs totals confirm structural demand. Decision: Price cattle and crops with local basis plus destination exposure, not only the national headline.\n\n## Scenarios to test\n\n- Feed cost spike: Corn, hay, soybean meal, fuel, or freight costs rise faster than cattle value. Decision: Recalculate whether the next gain period is still worth feeding.\n- Credit and interest squeeze: Higher financing cost changes replacement purchases, retained ownership, crop inputs, equipment, and working capital. Decision: Run every hold, buy, feed, and planting decision through cash-flow timing, not only headline price.\n- Export or border disruption: A sanitary, policy, currency, or logistics event changes buyer access. Decision: Do not assume local bids are stable when export channels or border rules move.\n- Drought tightens forage: Pasture weakens, hay gets tighter, and more cows or calves can move earlier than planned. Decision: Check forage inventory, water, and the value of selling lighter cattle before everyone else is forced to.\n- Crop yield shock: Soil moisture, heat, and rainfall patterns point to lower crop yields before harvest data is published. Decision: Decide whether to protect feed needs, price grain, adjust planting, or buy hay before local shortages are obvious.\n\n## Source-to-decision route\n\n- North America: Strait of Hormuz: Time running out to avert global food security crisis, FAO warns: FAO Newsroom published a war, sanctions, or shipping-route item. Read it as a delivered feed, fertilizer, fuel, freight, and buyer-access signal. -> Same day to 3 years history usually shows up in Same week to 12 months: Delivered feed and fertilizer become more expensive or less reliable Local basis can diverge from headline futures or export values Local feed substitution, earlier sale timing, or destination hedging becomes valuable -> War and shipping disruption: Conflict, sanctions, canal disruption, or route risk changes grain, fertilizer, fuel, freight, and protein trade costs.. Decision: Check delivered feed, fertilizer, fuel, freight, and route exposure before holding cattle longer or locking crop-input purchases.\n- North America: Strait of Hormuz conflict threatens global food prices as FAO warns time is running out: FAO Newsroom published a war, sanctions, or shipping-route item. Read it as a delivered feed, fertilizer, fuel, freight, and buyer-access signal. -> Same day to 3 years history usually shows up in Same week to 12 months: Delivered feed and fertilizer become more expensive or less reliable Local basis can diverge from headline futures or export values Local feed substitution, earlier sale timing, or destination hedging becomes valuable -> War and shipping disruption: Conflict, sanctions, canal disruption, or route risk changes grain, fertilizer, fuel, freight, and protein trade costs.. Decision: Check delivered feed, fertilizer, fuel, freight, and route exposure before holding cattle longer or locking crop-input purchases.\n- North America: Strait of Hormuz crisis: Fertilizer scarcity will affect next harvests and food supplies, FAO warns: FAO Newsroom published a war, sanctions, or shipping-route item. Read it as a delivered feed, fertilizer, fuel, freight, and buyer-access signal. -> Same day to 3 years history usually shows up in Same week to 12 months: Delivered feed and fertilizer become more expensive or less reliable Local basis can diverge from headline futures or export values Local feed substitution, earlier sale timing, or destination hedging becomes valuable -> War and shipping disruption: Conflict, sanctions, canal disruption, or route risk changes grain, fertilizer, fuel, freight, and protein trade costs.. Decision: Check delivered feed, fertilizer, fuel, freight, and route exposure before holding cattle longer or locking crop-input purchases.\n- North America: Southern Plains 7-day water demand forecast: heat and water demand watch: Water demand, shade and handling windows, dairy milk yield, pasture regrowth, hay substitution, irrigation demand, and feed-crop stress. -> 30-120 days history usually shows up in 2-16 weeks: More calves and cull cows move earlier Replacement animals face discount risk in dry regions Feed cost can erase the value of extra gain -> Drought tightens forage: Pasture weakens, hay gets tighter, and more cows or calves can move earlier than planned.. Decision: Move water checks, shade, transport timing, and dairy heat-abatement ahead of the forecast peak before assuming cattle will keep eating and gaining normally.\n- North America: Sorghum export pull weekly exports changed weekly buyer pull: Corn, sorghum, and meal export pull can change domestic feed basis, ration coverage, feeder bids, and gain economics. -> 90 days to 5 years history usually shows up in 1-18 months: Backgrounding and finishing margins compress Dairy ration spend rises before cull flow changes Crop producers may gain price opportunity while livestock producers face cost risk -> Feed cost spike: Corn, hay, soybean meal, fuel, or freight costs rise faster than cattle value.. Decision: Check delivered feed and basis before buying feeders, holding cattle for more weight, or leaving protein needs uncovered.\n\n## Source\n\n- USDA AMS MyMarketNews: Prices, Daily and weekly, Official. https://mymarketnews.ams.usda.gov/mymarketnews-api/faqs\n- CEPEA/ESALQ cattle indicators: Prices, Daily and monthly, Research institution. https://www.cepea.org.br/br/categoria/acessar/boi-94-1.aspx\n- Meat & Livestock Australia statistics API: Prices, Daily to weekly, Public market operator. https://www.mla.com.au/prices-markets/statistics/api/\n- CME livestock and grain markets: Futures, Intraday delayed and daily settlement, Exchange. https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/agriculture/livestock.html\n- CFTC Commitments of Traders: Futures, Weekly, Official. https://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/index.htm\n- USDA ERS Feed Grains Database: Feed, Monthly and annual, Official. https://ers.usda.gov/data-products/feed-grains-database/documentation\n- World Bank commodity prices: Macro, Monthly, Official. https://www.worldbank.org/en/research/commodity-markets\n- USDA FAS Open Data: Trade, Weekly, monthly, annual, Official. https://apps.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/app/index.html#/app/downloads\n\nCitation: North America decision cockpit answers \"Does the next weight gain still pay after feed, freight, basis, and buyer risk?\" with 3 evidence items, 12 sources, 10 historical rules, and 8 scenarios.\n\nJSON data: https://cattleweightestimation.com/market-pulse/decision-cockpit.json?region=north-america&lens=sell-hold-or-hedge&lang=en\nDashboard: https://cattleweightestimation.com/market-pulse?region=north-america&lang=en"}}