{"name":"Cattle Market Pulse decision readiness","description":"Region-filtered decision-readiness feed for cattle producers. It ranks sale, feed, forage, water, disease, trade, and dairy decisions by current market evidence, source coverage, historical patterns, scenarios, local boards, and next checks.","generatedAt":"2026-06-06T23:07:32.349Z","snapshotGeneratedAt":"2026-06-06T11:33:23.605Z","snapshotWindow":{"startDate":"2026-05-28","endDate":"2026-06-03"},"updateCadence":"daily","isAccessibleForFree":true,"canonicalUrl":"https://cattleweightestimation.com/market-pulse/decision-readiness.json","filters":{"region":"north-america","sector":"all","lang":"en","limit":3},"summary":{"boards":1,"decisions":3,"ready":0,"watch":3,"thin":0,"evidenceItems":844,"mappedMarketFeeds":264,"historicalDrivers":6,"scenarios":6,"localMarkets":5},"queryExamples":["https://cattleweightestimation.com/market-pulse/decision-readiness.json?region=north-america&sector=beef&lang=en","https://cattleweightestimation.com/market-pulse/decision-readiness.json?region=latin-america&sector=feed&lang=es","https://cattleweightestimation.com/market-pulse/decision-readiness.json?region=latin-america&sector=dairy&lang=pt&limit=10"],"readiness":{"id":"decision-readiness:north-america:all:en","type":"decision-readiness","title":"North America decision readiness","subtitle":"Shows whether each sale, feed, health, water, or trade decision is backed by current signals, history, scenarios, and local market coverage.","locale":"en","regionId":"north-america","regionName":"North America","sector":"all","generatedAt":"2026-06-06T23:07:32.348Z","snapshotGeneratedAt":"2026-06-06T11:33:23.605Z","snapshotWindow":{"startDate":"2026-05-28","endDate":"2026-06-03"},"updateCadence":"daily","isAccessibleForFree":true,"canonicalDataUrl":"https://cattleweightestimation.com/market-pulse/decision-readiness.json?region=north-america&sector=all&lang=en","summary":{"decisions":3,"strong":0,"watch":3,"thin":0,"evidenceItems":844,"sourceFamilies":5,"mappedMarketFeeds":264,"estimatedPublicSeries":16143,"historicalDrivers":6,"scenarios":6,"localMarkets":5},"statusBoards":[{"id":"strong","label":"Ready","decisions":0,"averageScore":0,"evidenceItems":0},{"id":"watch","label":"Watch","decisions":3,"averageScore":77,"evidenceItems":844},{"id":"thin","label":"Thin","decisions":0,"averageScore":0,"evidenceItems":0}],"topDecision":{"id":"decision-readiness:north-america:dairy-cull-margin","lensId":"dairy-cull-margin","label":"Dairy margin and cull flow","question":"Is milk margin changing ration spend, replacement appetite, or dairy-beef supply?","headline":"Milk, feed, energy, and cull-cow values feed directly into dairy and beef supply.","producerAction":"Reprice ration, culling, replacement, and dairy-beef timing together.","refreshCadence":"Weekly to monthly","sectors":["dairy","beef","feed"],"readinessStatus":"watch","readinessLabel":"Watch","readinessScore":77,"summary":{"evidenceItems":312,"liveObservations":55,"driverImpacts":117,"marketEvents":84,"temporalSignals":2,"causalPaths":54,"sourceFamilies":34,"liveSourceFamilies":25,"mappedMarketFeeds":93,"estimatedPublicSeries":5565,"sourceGraphEdges":36,"historicalDrivers":11,"scenarios":8,"localMarkets":15},"currentSignals":[{"id":"impact:world-bank-pink-sheet-crude-oil-north-america-commodity-margin-impact","kind":"impact","kindLabel":"Driver impact","title":"North America Global Brent crude oil price is moving the margin stack","read":"107.5 $/bbl in the latest World Bank commodity sheet. Read this against pasture input, fertilizer, diesel, freight, and working capital.","producerAction":"Reprice the next gain period, forage plan, and delivered-feed bill before buying inputs or holding cattle longer.","sourceId":"world-bank-pink-sheet","sourceName":"World Bank commodity prices","sourceUrl":"https://www.worldbank.org/en/research/commodity-markets","date":"2026-06-06T11:33:23.605Z","confidence":84,"severity":"high","evidenceKey":"impact:world-bank-pink-sheet-crude-oil-north-america-commodity-margin-impact","score":6573},{"id":"impact:world-bank-pink-sheet-dap-north-america-commodity-margin-impact","kind":"impact","kindLabel":"Driver impact","title":"North America Global DAP fertilizer price is moving the margin stack","read":"770 $/mt in the latest World Bank commodity sheet. Read this against pasture input, fertilizer, diesel, freight, and working capital.","producerAction":"Reprice the next gain period, forage plan, and delivered-feed bill before buying inputs or holding cattle longer.","sourceId":"world-bank-pink-sheet","sourceName":"World Bank commodity prices","sourceUrl":"https://www.worldbank.org/en/research/commodity-markets","date":"2026-06-06T11:33:23.605Z","confidence":84,"severity":"high","evidenceKey":"impact:world-bank-pink-sheet-dap-north-america-commodity-margin-impact","score":6573},{"id":"impact:world-bank-pink-sheet-urea-north-america-commodity-margin-impact","kind":"impact","kindLabel":"Driver impact","title":"North America Global urea fertilizer price is moving the margin stack","read":"771 $/mt in the latest World Bank commodity sheet. Read this against pasture input, fertilizer, diesel, freight, and working capital.","producerAction":"Reprice the next gain period, forage plan, and delivered-feed bill before buying inputs or holding cattle longer.","sourceId":"world-bank-pink-sheet","sourceName":"World Bank commodity prices","sourceUrl":"https://www.worldbank.org/en/research/commodity-markets","date":"2026-06-06T11:33:23.605Z","confidence":84,"severity":"high","evidenceKey":"impact:world-bank-pink-sheet-urea-north-america-commodity-margin-impact","score":6573},{"id":"impact:world-bank-pink-sheet-beef-north-america-commodity-margin-impact","kind":"impact","kindLabel":"Driver impact","title":"North America Global beef price is moving the margin stack","read":"7.95 $/kg in the latest World Bank commodity sheet. Read this against export demand, cull values, and local cattle basis.","producerAction":"Compare global beef with local bids before deciding whether weak local price is local supply, export demand, or currency.","sourceId":"world-bank-pink-sheet","sourceName":"World Bank commodity prices","sourceUrl":"https://www.worldbank.org/en/research/commodity-markets","date":"2026-06-06T11:33:23.605Z","confidence":78,"severity":"high","evidenceKey":"impact:world-bank-pink-sheet-beef-north-america-commodity-margin-impact","score":6555},{"id":"impact:world-bank-pink-sheet-maize-north-america-commodity-margin-impact","kind":"impact","kindLabel":"Driver impact","title":"North America Global maize price is moving the margin stack","read":"216 $/mt in the latest World Bank commodity sheet. Read this against ration cost, hay substitution, and feeder bids.","producerAction":"Reprice the next gain period, forage plan, and delivered-feed bill before buying inputs or holding cattle longer.","sourceId":"world-bank-pink-sheet","sourceName":"World Bank commodity prices","sourceUrl":"https://www.worldbank.org/en/research/commodity-markets","date":"2026-06-06T11:33:23.605Z","confidence":78,"severity":"high","evidenceKey":"impact:world-bank-pink-sheet-maize-north-america-commodity-margin-impact","score":6525},{"id":"impact:world-bank-pink-sheet-soybean-meal-north-america-commodity-margin-impact","kind":"impact","kindLabel":"Driver impact","title":"North America Global soybean meal price is moving the margin stack","read":"421 $/mt in the latest World Bank commodity sheet. Read this against ration cost, hay substitution, and feeder bids.","producerAction":"Reprice the next gain period, forage plan, and delivered-feed bill before buying inputs or holding cattle longer.","sourceId":"world-bank-pink-sheet","sourceName":"World Bank commodity prices","sourceUrl":"https://www.worldbank.org/en/research/commodity-markets","date":"2026-06-06T11:33:23.605Z","confidence":78,"severity":"high","evidenceKey":"impact:world-bank-pink-sheet-soybean-meal-north-america-commodity-margin-impact","score":6525},{"id":"impact:usda-nass-crop-progress-pasture-good-excellent-2026-06-01-official-report-impact","kind":"impact","kindLabel":"Driver impact","title":"U.S. pasture good/excellent changes the official crop progress read","read":"30 % in the 2026-06-01 USDA NASS Crop Progress; -12.0 points versus last year. This is an official supply, feed, dairy, or pasture signal to read before treating local prices as isolated.","producerAction":"Move this NASS read into the feed plan now: count forage days, price hay and grain, then compare selling lighter cattle against buying another gain period.","sourceId":"usda-nass","sourceName":"USDA NASS QuickStats and ESMIS reports","sourceUrl":"https://esmis.nal.usda.gov/","date":"2026-06-06T11:33:23.605Z","confidence":91,"severity":"high","evidenceKey":"impact:usda-nass-crop-progress-pasture-good-excellent-2026-06-01-official-report-impact","score":5809},{"id":"impact:usda-nass-crop-progress-pasture-poor-very-poor-2026-06-01-official-report-impact","kind":"impact","kindLabel":"Driver impact","title":"U.S. pasture poor/very poor changes the official crop progress read","read":"42 % in the 2026-06-01 USDA NASS Crop Progress; 42.0% of selected-state pasture is poor or very poor. This is an official supply, feed, dairy, or pasture signal to read before treating local prices as isolated.","producerAction":"Move this NASS read into the feed plan now: count forage days, price hay and grain, then compare selling lighter cattle against buying another gain period.","sourceId":"usda-nass","sourceName":"USDA NASS QuickStats and ESMIS reports","sourceUrl":"https://esmis.nal.usda.gov/","date":"2026-06-06T11:33:23.605Z","confidence":91,"severity":"high","evidenceKey":"impact:usda-nass-crop-progress-pasture-poor-very-poor-2026-06-01-official-report-impact","score":5809}],"pastToFuture":[{"id":"pasture-stress-to-sale-runs","driver":"Pasture stress becomes sale pressure","lookbackWindow":"30-120 days","forwardWindow":"2-16 weeks","lag":"Pasture stress usually hits feed buying first, sale runs second, and replacement prices last.","leadingSignals":["Soil moisture drops below seasonal median","Pasture condition ratings deteriorate","Hay and supplement quotes firm before auction volume rises"],"forwardEffects":["More calves and cull cows move earlier","Replacement animals face discount risk in dry regions","Feed cost can erase the value of extra gain"],"producerDecision":"Move from calendar-based selling to forage-days and feed-margin selling.","confidence":86},{"id":"crop-balance-to-feed-margin","driver":"Crop balance becomes feed margin","lookbackWindow":"90 days to 5 years","forwardWindow":"1-18 months","lag":"Acreage and crop condition lead production; production leads feed price; feed price leads cattle and milk margins.","leadingSignals":["Acreage, crop progress, and soil moisture shift together","Balance-sheet revisions tighten ending stocks","Rail, freight, or port pressure widens local basis"],"forwardEffects":["Backgrounding and finishing margins compress","Dairy ration spend rises before cull flow changes","Crop producers may gain price opportunity while livestock producers face cost risk"],"producerDecision":"Use the crop balance to decide feed coverage, hay buying, grain pricing, and stocking rate.","confidence":84},{"id":"health-alert-to-market-access","driver":"Animal-health alerts become market-access friction","lookbackWindow":"Same day to 5 years","forwardWindow":"Same day to 12 months","lag":"A disease notice can affect movement immediately, then trade access and buyer confidence over weeks or months.","leadingSignals":["Official disease notice or surveillance update","Movement guidance, testing rules, or border language changes","Buyer discounts appear before broad price averages adjust"],"forwardEffects":["Movement costs and delays rise","Export eligibility or buyer confidence can narrow","Biosecurity spend becomes part of the margin calculation"],"producerDecision":"Check health status before moving cattle, buying replacements, or signing export-sensitive commitments.","confidence":83},{"id":"export-pull-to-local-basis","driver":"Export pull changes local basis","lookbackWindow":"4-52 weeks","forwardWindow":"1-12 weeks","lag":"Export sales lead shipments; shipments lead customs totals; customs totals confirm structural demand.","leadingSignals":["Weekly sales or attaché reports change before monthly trade files","Destination concentration rises","Currency makes local supply cheaper or dearer to importers"],"forwardEffects":["Processor bids widen or narrow by export access","Feed and crop basis shifts around ports and corridors","Sanitary or border events can erase the signal quickly"],"producerDecision":"Price cattle and crops with local basis plus destination exposure, not only the national headline.","confidence":82},{"id":"heat-load-to-milk-gain","driver":"Heat load becomes milk and weight-gain drag","lookbackWindow":"7-90 days","forwardWindow":"Same day to 12 weeks","lag":"Heat and humidity affect intake first, then milk, weight gain, conception, and sale timing.","leadingSignals":["Temperature-humidity pressure rises for multiple days","Water demand and night cooling fail to reset","Feed intake falls before production reports update"],"forwardEffects":["Milk output and components weaken","Finishing cattle gain less efficiently","Water, shade, and ration timing become margin controls"],"producerDecision":"Move heat mitigation and ration timing ahead of sale-weight or milk-output assumptions.","confidence":82}],"scenarioTests":[{"id":"heat-stress-milk-loss","name":"Heat stress cuts milk and gain","sector":"dairy","defaultIntensity":44,"description":"Temperature, humidity, and water stress reduce milk output, weight gain, conception, and pasture recovery.","producerDecision":"Prioritize shade, water, ration timing, and sale weights before the heat signal shows up in production reports.","outputs":[{"label":"Milk-yield loss","baseline":12,"unit":"%","perIntensityPoint":0.44,"direction":"higher-is-risk"},{"label":"Weight-gain drag","baseline":14,"unit":"%","perIntensityPoint":0.39,"direction":"higher-is-risk"},{"label":"Cooling and water urgency","baseline":28,"unit":"%","perIntensityPoint":0.58,"direction":"higher-is-risk"}]},{"id":"drought-shock","name":"Drought tightens forage","sector":"feed","defaultIntensity":42,"description":"Pasture weakens, hay gets tighter, and more cows or calves can move earlier than planned.","producerDecision":"Check forage inventory, water, and the value of selling lighter cattle before everyone else is forced to.","outputs":[{"label":"Hay cost risk","baseline":28,"unit":"%","perIntensityPoint":0.72,"direction":"higher-is-risk"},{"label":"Early sale pressure","baseline":22,"unit":"%","perIntensityPoint":0.58,"direction":"higher-is-risk"},{"label":"Pasture carrying days","baseline":64,"unit":"days","perIntensityPoint":-0.42,"direction":"lower-is-risk"}]},{"id":"geopolitical-shipping-shock","name":"War and shipping disruption","sector":"feed","defaultIntensity":37,"description":"Conflict, sanctions, canal disruption, or route risk changes grain, fertilizer, fuel, freight, and protein trade costs.","producerDecision":"Before holding cattle for more gain, check whether war or shipping risk has changed delivered feed, fertilizer, freight, or buyer access.","outputs":[{"label":"Delivered-input risk","baseline":24,"unit":"%","perIntensityPoint":0.69,"direction":"higher-is-risk"},{"label":"Basis and freight drag","baseline":21,"unit":"%","perIntensityPoint":0.64,"direction":"higher-is-risk"},{"label":"Local substitution value","baseline":30,"unit":"%","perIntensityPoint":0.35,"direction":"higher-is-opportunity"}]},{"id":"port-freight-shock","name":"Port and freight shock","sector":"feed","defaultIntensity":36,"description":"Port congestion, fuel, border friction, or shipping disruption widens the gap between farm price and destination price.","producerDecision":"Before moving cattle, hay, grain, milk, or inputs, test whether freight has already eaten the price signal.","outputs":[{"label":"Delivered-feed risk","baseline":26,"unit":"%","perIntensityPoint":0.73,"direction":"higher-is-risk"},{"label":"Export basis drag","baseline":22,"unit":"%","perIntensityPoint":0.59,"direction":"higher-is-risk"},{"label":"Local arbitrage window","baseline":35,"unit":"%","perIntensityPoint":0.32,"direction":"higher-is-opportunity"}]},{"id":"feed-cost-spike","name":"Feed cost spike","sector":"feed","defaultIntensity":35,"description":"Corn, hay, soybean meal, fuel, or freight costs rise faster than cattle value.","producerDecision":"Recalculate whether the next gain period is still worth feeding.","outputs":[{"label":"Feed breakeven pressure","baseline":34,"unit":"%","perIntensityPoint":0.66,"direction":"higher-is-risk"},{"label":"Margin cushion","baseline":24,"unit":"%","perIntensityPoint":-0.45,"direction":"lower-is-risk"},{"label":"Freight sensitivity","baseline":18,"unit":"%","perIntensityPoint":0.31,"direction":"higher-is-risk"}]}],"localBoards":[{"id":"united-states-feed-belt","name":"United States feed and crop belt","country":"United States","kind":"Feed belt","risk":70,"opportunity":84,"estimatedSeries":546,"decisionUse":"Use feed grain, hay, protein meal, crop progress, fuel, and credit signals before buying feed or holding weight longer.","watchSignal":"Delivered feed basis, crop yield risk, freight, diesel, and financing pressure."},{"id":"united-states-dairy-belt","name":"United States dairy and processor belt","country":"United States","kind":"Dairy belt","risk":70,"opportunity":83,"estimatedSeries":730,"decisionUse":"Use milk price, solids, feed cost, cull-cow flow, and processor demand before changing ration, culling, or replacement plans.","watchSignal":"Milk-feed spread, processor pull, dairy-beef supply, and replacement economics."},{"id":"united-states-pasture-basin","name":"United States pasture and water basin","country":"United States","kind":"Pasture basin","risk":69,"opportunity":83,"estimatedSeries":709,"decisionUse":"Use rainfall, heat, water, pasture, and forage signals before changing stocking rate, sale pressure, or supplement buying.","watchSignal":"Pasture recovery, water stress, heat load, hay availability, and forced-sale risk."},{"id":"united-states-trade-corridor","name":"United States trade and health corridor","country":"United States","kind":"Trade corridor","risk":68,"opportunity":84,"estimatedSeries":627,"decisionUse":"Use export access, border movement, disease notices, freight, currency, and policy signals before committing volume.","watchSignal":"Destination concentration, sanitary access, port flow, border friction, and currency translation."},{"id":"canada-feed-belt","name":"Canada feed and crop belt","country":"Canada","kind":"Feed belt","risk":67,"opportunity":84,"estimatedSeries":546,"decisionUse":"Use feed grain, hay, protein meal, crop progress, fuel, and credit signals before buying feed or holding weight longer.","watchSignal":"Delivered feed basis, crop yield risk, freight, diesel, and financing pressure."}],"coverageGaps":[{"id":"canada-beef-dairy-trade","country":"Canada","layer":"Beef, dairy, live animal, grain, and feed trade flows","status":"api-ready","category":"Trade","estimatedSeries":120,"producerRisk":"Export pull, import pressure, destination risk, and local basis.","nextCheck":"Maps customs movement into buyer-access and feed-cost signals."},{"id":"mexico-beef-dairy-trade","country":"Mexico","layer":"Beef, dairy, live animal, grain, and feed trade flows","status":"api-ready","category":"Trade","estimatedSeries":120,"producerRisk":"Export pull, import pressure, destination risk, and local basis.","nextCheck":"Maps customs movement into buyer-access and feed-cost signals."},{"id":"united-states-beef-dairy-trade","country":"United States","layer":"Beef, dairy, live animal, grain, and feed trade flows","status":"api-ready","category":"Trade","estimatedSeries":120,"producerRisk":"Export pull, import pressure, destination risk, and local basis.","nextCheck":"Maps customs movement into buyer-access and feed-cost signals."},{"id":"canada-crop-progress-production","country":"Canada","layer":"Crop area, progress, yield, production, stocks, and balance sheets","status":"api-ready","category":"Crops","estimatedSeries":110,"producerRisk":"Feed supply, crop margins, ration substitution, and stocking rate.","nextCheck":"Connects crop balance to feed margin and cattle timing."},{"id":"mexico-crop-progress-production","country":"Mexico","layer":"Crop area, progress, yield, production, stocks, and balance sheets","status":"api-ready","category":"Crops","estimatedSeries":110,"producerRisk":"Feed supply, crop margins, ration substitution, and stocking rate.","nextCheck":"Connects crop balance to feed margin and cattle timing."},{"id":"united-states-crop-progress-production","country":"United States","layer":"Crop area, progress, yield, production, stocks, and balance sheets","status":"api-ready","category":"Crops","estimatedSeries":110,"producerRisk":"Feed supply, crop margins, ration substitution, and stocking rate.","nextCheck":"Connects crop balance to feed margin and cattle timing."},{"id":"canada-herd-inventory","country":"Canada","layer":"Bovine herd, cow inventory, calf crop, and replacement numbers","status":"api-ready","category":"Inventory","estimatedSeries":80,"producerRisk":"Herd rebuild, replacement value, long-cycle supply, and basis.","nextCheck":"Links structural supply to future cattle availability."},{"id":"mexico-herd-inventory","country":"Mexico","layer":"Bovine herd, cow inventory, calf crop, and replacement numbers","status":"api-ready","category":"Inventory","estimatedSeries":80,"producerRisk":"Herd rebuild, replacement value, long-cycle supply, and basis.","nextCheck":"Links structural supply to future cattle availability."}],"decisionChain":[{"id":"dairy-cull-margin:question","label":"Question","title":"Is milk margin changing ration spend, replacement appetite, or dairy-beef supply?","detail":"Milk, feed, energy, and cull-cow values feed directly into dairy and beef supply."},{"id":"dairy-cull-margin:signal","label":"Current signal","title":"North America Global Brent crude oil price is moving the margin stack","detail":"107.5 $/bbl in the latest World Bank commodity sheet. Read this against pasture input, fertilizer, diesel, freight, and working capital."},{"id":"dairy-cull-margin:effect","label":"Market effect","title":"Sale timing, weight class target, and hedge urgency","detail":"Sell now, add pounds, or price-protect cattle before bids soften."},{"id":"dairy-cull-margin:history","label":"Past pattern","title":"Pasture stress becomes sale pressure","detail":"30-120 days -> 2-16 weeks: Pasture stress usually hits feed buying first, sale runs second, and replacement prices last."},{"id":"dairy-cull-margin:scenario","label":"Scenario","title":"Heat stress cuts milk and gain","detail":"Temperature, humidity, and water stress reduce milk output, weight gain, conception, and pasture recovery."},{"id":"dairy-cull-margin:action","label":"Action","title":"United States feed and crop belt, United States","detail":"Use feed grain, hay, protein meal, crop progress, fuel, and credit signals before buying feed or holding weight longer."}],"citationText":"Dairy margin and cull flow for north-america is watch with 312 current signals, 11 historical patterns, and 8 scenarios."},"rows":[{"id":"decision-readiness:north-america:dairy-cull-margin","lensId":"dairy-cull-margin","label":"Dairy margin and cull flow","question":"Is milk margin changing ration spend, replacement appetite, or dairy-beef supply?","headline":"Milk, feed, energy, and cull-cow values feed directly into dairy and beef supply.","producerAction":"Reprice ration, culling, replacement, and dairy-beef timing together.","refreshCadence":"Weekly to monthly","sectors":["dairy","beef","feed"],"readinessStatus":"watch","readinessLabel":"Watch","readinessScore":77,"summary":{"evidenceItems":312,"liveObservations":55,"driverImpacts":117,"marketEvents":84,"temporalSignals":2,"causalPaths":54,"sourceFamilies":34,"liveSourceFamilies":25,"mappedMarketFeeds":93,"estimatedPublicSeries":5565,"sourceGraphEdges":36,"historicalDrivers":11,"scenarios":8,"localMarkets":15},"currentSignals":[{"id":"impact:world-bank-pink-sheet-crude-oil-north-america-commodity-margin-impact","kind":"impact","kindLabel":"Driver impact","title":"North America Global Brent crude oil price is moving the margin stack","read":"107.5 $/bbl in the latest World Bank commodity sheet. Read this against pasture input, fertilizer, diesel, freight, and working capital.","producerAction":"Reprice the next gain period, forage plan, and delivered-feed bill before buying inputs or holding cattle longer.","sourceId":"world-bank-pink-sheet","sourceName":"World Bank commodity prices","sourceUrl":"https://www.worldbank.org/en/research/commodity-markets","date":"2026-06-06T11:33:23.605Z","confidence":84,"severity":"high","evidenceKey":"impact:world-bank-pink-sheet-crude-oil-north-america-commodity-margin-impact","score":6573},{"id":"impact:world-bank-pink-sheet-dap-north-america-commodity-margin-impact","kind":"impact","kindLabel":"Driver impact","title":"North America Global DAP fertilizer price is moving the margin stack","read":"770 $/mt in the latest World Bank commodity sheet. Read this against pasture input, fertilizer, diesel, freight, and working capital.","producerAction":"Reprice the next gain period, forage plan, and delivered-feed bill before buying inputs or holding cattle longer.","sourceId":"world-bank-pink-sheet","sourceName":"World Bank commodity prices","sourceUrl":"https://www.worldbank.org/en/research/commodity-markets","date":"2026-06-06T11:33:23.605Z","confidence":84,"severity":"high","evidenceKey":"impact:world-bank-pink-sheet-dap-north-america-commodity-margin-impact","score":6573},{"id":"impact:world-bank-pink-sheet-urea-north-america-commodity-margin-impact","kind":"impact","kindLabel":"Driver impact","title":"North America Global urea fertilizer price is moving the margin stack","read":"771 $/mt in the latest World Bank commodity sheet. Read this against pasture input, fertilizer, diesel, freight, and working capital.","producerAction":"Reprice the next gain period, forage plan, and delivered-feed bill before buying inputs or holding cattle longer.","sourceId":"world-bank-pink-sheet","sourceName":"World Bank commodity prices","sourceUrl":"https://www.worldbank.org/en/research/commodity-markets","date":"2026-06-06T11:33:23.605Z","confidence":84,"severity":"high","evidenceKey":"impact:world-bank-pink-sheet-urea-north-america-commodity-margin-impact","score":6573},{"id":"impact:world-bank-pink-sheet-beef-north-america-commodity-margin-impact","kind":"impact","kindLabel":"Driver impact","title":"North America Global beef price is moving the margin stack","read":"7.95 $/kg in the latest World Bank commodity sheet. Read this against export demand, cull values, and local cattle basis.","producerAction":"Compare global beef with local bids before deciding whether weak local price is local supply, export demand, or currency.","sourceId":"world-bank-pink-sheet","sourceName":"World Bank commodity prices","sourceUrl":"https://www.worldbank.org/en/research/commodity-markets","date":"2026-06-06T11:33:23.605Z","confidence":78,"severity":"high","evidenceKey":"impact:world-bank-pink-sheet-beef-north-america-commodity-margin-impact","score":6555},{"id":"impact:world-bank-pink-sheet-maize-north-america-commodity-margin-impact","kind":"impact","kindLabel":"Driver impact","title":"North America Global maize price is moving the margin stack","read":"216 $/mt in the latest World Bank commodity sheet. Read this against ration cost, hay substitution, and feeder bids.","producerAction":"Reprice the next gain period, forage plan, and delivered-feed bill before buying inputs or holding cattle longer.","sourceId":"world-bank-pink-sheet","sourceName":"World Bank commodity prices","sourceUrl":"https://www.worldbank.org/en/research/commodity-markets","date":"2026-06-06T11:33:23.605Z","confidence":78,"severity":"high","evidenceKey":"impact:world-bank-pink-sheet-maize-north-america-commodity-margin-impact","score":6525},{"id":"impact:world-bank-pink-sheet-soybean-meal-north-america-commodity-margin-impact","kind":"impact","kindLabel":"Driver impact","title":"North America Global soybean meal price is moving the margin stack","read":"421 $/mt in the latest World Bank commodity sheet. Read this against ration cost, hay substitution, and feeder bids.","producerAction":"Reprice the next gain period, forage plan, and delivered-feed bill before buying inputs or holding cattle longer.","sourceId":"world-bank-pink-sheet","sourceName":"World Bank commodity prices","sourceUrl":"https://www.worldbank.org/en/research/commodity-markets","date":"2026-06-06T11:33:23.605Z","confidence":78,"severity":"high","evidenceKey":"impact:world-bank-pink-sheet-soybean-meal-north-america-commodity-margin-impact","score":6525},{"id":"impact:usda-nass-crop-progress-pasture-good-excellent-2026-06-01-official-report-impact","kind":"impact","kindLabel":"Driver impact","title":"U.S. pasture good/excellent changes the official crop progress read","read":"30 % in the 2026-06-01 USDA NASS Crop Progress; -12.0 points versus last year. This is an official supply, feed, dairy, or pasture signal to read before treating local prices as isolated.","producerAction":"Move this NASS read into the feed plan now: count forage days, price hay and grain, then compare selling lighter cattle against buying another gain period.","sourceId":"usda-nass","sourceName":"USDA NASS QuickStats and ESMIS reports","sourceUrl":"https://esmis.nal.usda.gov/","date":"2026-06-06T11:33:23.605Z","confidence":91,"severity":"high","evidenceKey":"impact:usda-nass-crop-progress-pasture-good-excellent-2026-06-01-official-report-impact","score":5809},{"id":"impact:usda-nass-crop-progress-pasture-poor-very-poor-2026-06-01-official-report-impact","kind":"impact","kindLabel":"Driver impact","title":"U.S. pasture poor/very poor changes the official crop progress read","read":"42 % in the 2026-06-01 USDA NASS Crop Progress; 42.0% of selected-state pasture is poor or very poor. This is an official supply, feed, dairy, or pasture signal to read before treating local prices as isolated.","producerAction":"Move this NASS read into the feed plan now: count forage days, price hay and grain, then compare selling lighter cattle against buying another gain period.","sourceId":"usda-nass","sourceName":"USDA NASS QuickStats and ESMIS reports","sourceUrl":"https://esmis.nal.usda.gov/","date":"2026-06-06T11:33:23.605Z","confidence":91,"severity":"high","evidenceKey":"impact:usda-nass-crop-progress-pasture-poor-very-poor-2026-06-01-official-report-impact","score":5809}],"pastToFuture":[{"id":"pasture-stress-to-sale-runs","driver":"Pasture stress becomes sale pressure","lookbackWindow":"30-120 days","forwardWindow":"2-16 weeks","lag":"Pasture stress usually hits feed buying first, sale runs second, and replacement prices last.","leadingSignals":["Soil moisture drops below seasonal median","Pasture condition ratings deteriorate","Hay and supplement quotes firm before auction volume rises"],"forwardEffects":["More calves and cull cows move earlier","Replacement animals face discount risk in dry regions","Feed cost can erase the value of extra gain"],"producerDecision":"Move from calendar-based selling to forage-days and feed-margin selling.","confidence":86},{"id":"crop-balance-to-feed-margin","driver":"Crop balance becomes feed margin","lookbackWindow":"90 days to 5 years","forwardWindow":"1-18 months","lag":"Acreage and crop condition lead production; production leads feed price; feed price leads cattle and milk margins.","leadingSignals":["Acreage, crop progress, and soil moisture shift together","Balance-sheet revisions tighten ending stocks","Rail, freight, or port pressure widens local basis"],"forwardEffects":["Backgrounding and finishing margins compress","Dairy ration spend rises before cull flow changes","Crop producers may gain price opportunity while livestock producers face cost risk"],"producerDecision":"Use the crop balance to decide feed coverage, hay buying, grain pricing, and stocking rate.","confidence":84},{"id":"health-alert-to-market-access","driver":"Animal-health alerts become market-access friction","lookbackWindow":"Same day to 5 years","forwardWindow":"Same day to 12 months","lag":"A disease notice can affect movement immediately, then trade access and buyer confidence over weeks or months.","leadingSignals":["Official disease notice or surveillance update","Movement guidance, testing rules, or border language changes","Buyer discounts appear before broad price averages adjust"],"forwardEffects":["Movement costs and delays rise","Export eligibility or buyer confidence can narrow","Biosecurity spend becomes part of the margin calculation"],"producerDecision":"Check health status before moving cattle, buying replacements, or signing export-sensitive commitments.","confidence":83},{"id":"export-pull-to-local-basis","driver":"Export pull changes local basis","lookbackWindow":"4-52 weeks","forwardWindow":"1-12 weeks","lag":"Export sales lead shipments; shipments lead customs totals; customs totals confirm structural demand.","leadingSignals":["Weekly sales or attaché reports change before monthly trade files","Destination concentration rises","Currency makes local supply cheaper or dearer to importers"],"forwardEffects":["Processor bids widen or narrow by export access","Feed and crop basis shifts around ports and corridors","Sanitary or border events can erase the signal quickly"],"producerDecision":"Price cattle and crops with local basis plus destination exposure, not only the national headline.","confidence":82},{"id":"heat-load-to-milk-gain","driver":"Heat load becomes milk and weight-gain drag","lookbackWindow":"7-90 days","forwardWindow":"Same day to 12 weeks","lag":"Heat and humidity affect intake first, then milk, weight gain, conception, and sale timing.","leadingSignals":["Temperature-humidity pressure rises for multiple days","Water demand and night cooling fail to reset","Feed intake falls before production reports update"],"forwardEffects":["Milk output and components weaken","Finishing cattle gain less efficiently","Water, shade, and ration timing become margin controls"],"producerDecision":"Move heat mitigation and ration timing ahead of sale-weight or milk-output assumptions.","confidence":82}],"scenarioTests":[{"id":"heat-stress-milk-loss","name":"Heat stress cuts milk and gain","sector":"dairy","defaultIntensity":44,"description":"Temperature, humidity, and water stress reduce milk output, weight gain, conception, and pasture recovery.","producerDecision":"Prioritize shade, water, ration timing, and sale weights before the heat signal shows up in production reports.","outputs":[{"label":"Milk-yield loss","baseline":12,"unit":"%","perIntensityPoint":0.44,"direction":"higher-is-risk"},{"label":"Weight-gain drag","baseline":14,"unit":"%","perIntensityPoint":0.39,"direction":"higher-is-risk"},{"label":"Cooling and water urgency","baseline":28,"unit":"%","perIntensityPoint":0.58,"direction":"higher-is-risk"}]},{"id":"drought-shock","name":"Drought tightens forage","sector":"feed","defaultIntensity":42,"description":"Pasture weakens, hay gets tighter, and more cows or calves can move earlier than planned.","producerDecision":"Check forage inventory, water, and the value of selling lighter cattle before everyone else is forced to.","outputs":[{"label":"Hay cost risk","baseline":28,"unit":"%","perIntensityPoint":0.72,"direction":"higher-is-risk"},{"label":"Early sale pressure","baseline":22,"unit":"%","perIntensityPoint":0.58,"direction":"higher-is-risk"},{"label":"Pasture carrying days","baseline":64,"unit":"days","perIntensityPoint":-0.42,"direction":"lower-is-risk"}]},{"id":"geopolitical-shipping-shock","name":"War and shipping disruption","sector":"feed","defaultIntensity":37,"description":"Conflict, sanctions, canal disruption, or route risk changes grain, fertilizer, fuel, freight, and protein trade costs.","producerDecision":"Before holding cattle for more gain, check whether war or shipping risk has changed delivered feed, fertilizer, freight, or buyer access.","outputs":[{"label":"Delivered-input risk","baseline":24,"unit":"%","perIntensityPoint":0.69,"direction":"higher-is-risk"},{"label":"Basis and freight drag","baseline":21,"unit":"%","perIntensityPoint":0.64,"direction":"higher-is-risk"},{"label":"Local substitution value","baseline":30,"unit":"%","perIntensityPoint":0.35,"direction":"higher-is-opportunity"}]},{"id":"port-freight-shock","name":"Port and freight shock","sector":"feed","defaultIntensity":36,"description":"Port congestion, fuel, border friction, or shipping disruption widens the gap between farm price and destination price.","producerDecision":"Before moving cattle, hay, grain, milk, or inputs, test whether freight has already eaten the price signal.","outputs":[{"label":"Delivered-feed risk","baseline":26,"unit":"%","perIntensityPoint":0.73,"direction":"higher-is-risk"},{"label":"Export basis drag","baseline":22,"unit":"%","perIntensityPoint":0.59,"direction":"higher-is-risk"},{"label":"Local arbitrage window","baseline":35,"unit":"%","perIntensityPoint":0.32,"direction":"higher-is-opportunity"}]},{"id":"feed-cost-spike","name":"Feed cost spike","sector":"feed","defaultIntensity":35,"description":"Corn, hay, soybean meal, fuel, or freight costs rise faster than cattle value.","producerDecision":"Recalculate whether the next gain period is still worth feeding.","outputs":[{"label":"Feed breakeven pressure","baseline":34,"unit":"%","perIntensityPoint":0.66,"direction":"higher-is-risk"},{"label":"Margin cushion","baseline":24,"unit":"%","perIntensityPoint":-0.45,"direction":"lower-is-risk"},{"label":"Freight sensitivity","baseline":18,"unit":"%","perIntensityPoint":0.31,"direction":"higher-is-risk"}]}],"localBoards":[{"id":"united-states-feed-belt","name":"United States feed and crop belt","country":"United States","kind":"Feed belt","risk":70,"opportunity":84,"estimatedSeries":546,"decisionUse":"Use feed grain, hay, protein meal, crop progress, fuel, and credit signals before buying feed or holding weight longer.","watchSignal":"Delivered feed basis, crop yield risk, freight, diesel, and financing pressure."},{"id":"united-states-dairy-belt","name":"United States dairy and processor belt","country":"United States","kind":"Dairy belt","risk":70,"opportunity":83,"estimatedSeries":730,"decisionUse":"Use milk price, solids, feed cost, cull-cow flow, and processor demand before changing ration, culling, or replacement plans.","watchSignal":"Milk-feed spread, processor pull, dairy-beef supply, and replacement economics."},{"id":"united-states-pasture-basin","name":"United States pasture and water basin","country":"United States","kind":"Pasture basin","risk":69,"opportunity":83,"estimatedSeries":709,"decisionUse":"Use rainfall, heat, water, pasture, and forage signals before changing stocking rate, sale pressure, or supplement buying.","watchSignal":"Pasture recovery, water stress, heat load, hay availability, and forced-sale risk."},{"id":"united-states-trade-corridor","name":"United States trade and health corridor","country":"United States","kind":"Trade corridor","risk":68,"opportunity":84,"estimatedSeries":627,"decisionUse":"Use export access, border movement, disease notices, freight, currency, and policy signals before committing volume.","watchSignal":"Destination concentration, sanitary access, port flow, border friction, and currency translation."},{"id":"canada-feed-belt","name":"Canada feed and crop belt","country":"Canada","kind":"Feed belt","risk":67,"opportunity":84,"estimatedSeries":546,"decisionUse":"Use feed grain, hay, protein meal, crop progress, fuel, and credit signals before buying feed or holding weight longer.","watchSignal":"Delivered feed basis, crop yield risk, freight, diesel, and financing pressure."}],"coverageGaps":[{"id":"canada-beef-dairy-trade","country":"Canada","layer":"Beef, dairy, live animal, grain, and feed trade flows","status":"api-ready","category":"Trade","estimatedSeries":120,"producerRisk":"Export pull, import pressure, destination risk, and local basis.","nextCheck":"Maps customs movement into buyer-access and feed-cost signals."},{"id":"mexico-beef-dairy-trade","country":"Mexico","layer":"Beef, dairy, live animal, grain, and feed trade flows","status":"api-ready","category":"Trade","estimatedSeries":120,"producerRisk":"Export pull, import pressure, destination risk, and local basis.","nextCheck":"Maps customs movement into buyer-access and feed-cost signals."},{"id":"united-states-beef-dairy-trade","country":"United States","layer":"Beef, dairy, live animal, grain, and feed trade flows","status":"api-ready","category":"Trade","estimatedSeries":120,"producerRisk":"Export pull, import pressure, destination risk, and local basis.","nextCheck":"Maps customs movement into buyer-access and feed-cost signals."},{"id":"canada-crop-progress-production","country":"Canada","layer":"Crop area, progress, yield, production, stocks, and balance sheets","status":"api-ready","category":"Crops","estimatedSeries":110,"producerRisk":"Feed supply, crop margins, ration substitution, and stocking rate.","nextCheck":"Connects crop balance to feed margin and cattle timing."},{"id":"mexico-crop-progress-production","country":"Mexico","layer":"Crop area, progress, yield, production, stocks, and balance sheets","status":"api-ready","category":"Crops","estimatedSeries":110,"producerRisk":"Feed supply, crop margins, ration substitution, and stocking rate.","nextCheck":"Connects crop balance to feed margin and cattle timing."},{"id":"united-states-crop-progress-production","country":"United States","layer":"Crop area, progress, yield, production, stocks, and balance sheets","status":"api-ready","category":"Crops","estimatedSeries":110,"producerRisk":"Feed supply, crop margins, ration substitution, and stocking rate.","nextCheck":"Connects crop balance to feed margin and cattle timing."},{"id":"canada-herd-inventory","country":"Canada","layer":"Bovine herd, cow inventory, calf crop, and replacement numbers","status":"api-ready","category":"Inventory","estimatedSeries":80,"producerRisk":"Herd rebuild, replacement value, long-cycle supply, and basis.","nextCheck":"Links structural supply to future cattle availability."},{"id":"mexico-herd-inventory","country":"Mexico","layer":"Bovine herd, cow inventory, calf crop, and replacement numbers","status":"api-ready","category":"Inventory","estimatedSeries":80,"producerRisk":"Herd rebuild, replacement value, long-cycle supply, and basis.","nextCheck":"Links structural supply to future cattle availability."}],"decisionChain":[{"id":"dairy-cull-margin:question","label":"Question","title":"Is milk margin changing ration spend, replacement appetite, or dairy-beef supply?","detail":"Milk, feed, energy, and cull-cow values feed directly into dairy and beef supply."},{"id":"dairy-cull-margin:signal","label":"Current signal","title":"North America Global Brent crude oil price is moving the margin stack","detail":"107.5 $/bbl in the latest World Bank commodity sheet. Read this against pasture input, fertilizer, diesel, freight, and working capital."},{"id":"dairy-cull-margin:effect","label":"Market effect","title":"Sale timing, weight class target, and hedge urgency","detail":"Sell now, add pounds, or price-protect cattle before bids soften."},{"id":"dairy-cull-margin:history","label":"Past pattern","title":"Pasture stress becomes sale pressure","detail":"30-120 days -> 2-16 weeks: Pasture stress usually hits feed buying first, sale runs second, and replacement prices last."},{"id":"dairy-cull-margin:scenario","label":"Scenario","title":"Heat stress cuts milk and gain","detail":"Temperature, humidity, and water stress reduce milk output, weight gain, conception, and pasture recovery."},{"id":"dairy-cull-margin:action","label":"Action","title":"United States feed and crop belt, United States","detail":"Use feed grain, hay, protein meal, crop progress, fuel, and credit signals before buying feed or holding weight longer."}],"citationText":"Dairy margin and cull flow for north-america is watch with 312 current signals, 11 historical patterns, and 8 scenarios."},{"id":"decision-readiness:north-america:feed-crop-margin","lensId":"feed-crop-margin","label":"Feed and crop margin","question":"Are corn, soy meal, hay, fertilizer, diesel, or crop balance changing the value of weight gain?","headline":"Crop balance and input costs often move cattle margins before cattle headlines do.","producerAction":"Reprice feed coverage and ration strategy before deciding to add more weight.","refreshCadence":"Daily to monthly","sectors":["feed","crops","beef","dairy"],"readinessStatus":"watch","readinessLabel":"Watch","readinessScore":77,"summary":{"evidenceItems":287,"liveObservations":47,"driverImpacts":102,"marketEvents":82,"temporalSignals":2,"causalPaths":54,"sourceFamilies":34,"liveSourceFamilies":25,"mappedMarketFeeds":87,"estimatedPublicSeries":5355,"sourceGraphEdges":36,"historicalDrivers":11,"scenarios":12,"localMarkets":15},"currentSignals":[{"id":"impact:usda-wasde-us-corn-stocks-monthly-balance-impact","kind":"impact","kindLabel":"Driver impact","title":"U.S. corn ending stocks changes the monthly feed and supply read","read":"1,957 million bushels in the May 2026 WASDE for 2026/27; -8.6% versus 2025/26. This is the official monthly bridge from crop/feed balance to cattle, milk, and sale timing.","producerAction":"Put the WASDE revision beside local corn, meal, hay, freight, and weather before buying feed, buying feeders, or holding cattle for more gain.","sourceId":"usda-wasde","sourceName":"USDA WASDE historical data","sourceUrl":"https://www.usda.gov/historical-wasde-report-data","date":"2026-06-06T11:33:23.605Z","confidence":90,"severity":"high","evidenceKey":"impact:usda-wasde-us-corn-stocks-monthly-balance-impact","score":6621},{"id":"impact:usda-wasde-us-corn-price-monthly-balance-impact","kind":"impact","kindLabel":"Driver impact","title":"U.S. corn farm price changes the monthly feed and supply read","read":"4 $/bu in the May 2026 WASDE for 2026/27; +6.0% versus 2025/26. This is the official monthly bridge from crop/feed balance to cattle, milk, and sale timing.","producerAction":"Put the WASDE revision beside local corn, meal, hay, freight, and weather before buying feed, buying feeders, or holding cattle for more gain.","sourceId":"usda-wasde","sourceName":"USDA WASDE historical data","sourceUrl":"https://www.usda.gov/historical-wasde-report-data","date":"2026-06-06T11:33:23.605Z","confidence":90,"severity":"high","evidenceKey":"impact:usda-wasde-us-corn-price-monthly-balance-impact","score":6621},{"id":"impact:usda-wasde-us-sorghum-feed-monthly-balance-impact","kind":"impact","kindLabel":"Driver impact","title":"U.S. sorghum feed and residual changes the monthly feed and supply read","read":"70 million bushels in the May 2026 WASDE for 2026/27; -30.0% versus 2025/26. This is the official monthly bridge from crop/feed balance to cattle, milk, and sale timing.","producerAction":"Put the WASDE revision beside local corn, meal, hay, freight, and weather before buying feed, buying feeders, or holding cattle for more gain.","sourceId":"usda-wasde","sourceName":"USDA WASDE historical data","sourceUrl":"https://www.usda.gov/historical-wasde-report-data","date":"2026-06-06T11:33:23.605Z","confidence":90,"severity":"high","evidenceKey":"impact:usda-wasde-us-sorghum-feed-monthly-balance-impact","score":6621},{"id":"impact:usda-wasde-mexico-corn-stocks-monthly-balance-impact","kind":"impact","kindLabel":"Driver impact","title":"Mexico corn ending stocks changes the monthly feed and supply read","read":"4.9 million tonnes in the May 2026 WASDE for 2026/27; -20.0% versus 2025/26. This is the official monthly bridge from crop/feed balance to cattle, milk, and sale timing.","producerAction":"Put the WASDE revision beside local corn, meal, hay, freight, and weather before buying feed, buying feeders, or holding cattle for more gain.","sourceId":"usda-wasde","sourceName":"USDA WASDE historical data","sourceUrl":"https://www.usda.gov/historical-wasde-report-data","date":"2026-06-06T11:33:23.605Z","confidence":90,"severity":"high","evidenceKey":"impact:usda-wasde-mexico-corn-stocks-monthly-balance-impact","score":6621},{"id":"impact:usda-wasde-mexico-soymeal-stocks-monthly-balance-impact","kind":"impact","kindLabel":"Driver impact","title":"Mexico soybean meal ending stocks changes the monthly feed and supply read","read":"0.4 million tonnes in the May 2026 WASDE for 2026/27; +12.1% versus 2025/26. This is the official monthly bridge from crop/feed balance to cattle, milk, and sale timing.","producerAction":"Put the WASDE revision beside local corn, meal, hay, freight, and weather before buying feed, buying feeders, or holding cattle for more gain.","sourceId":"usda-wasde","sourceName":"USDA WASDE historical data","sourceUrl":"https://www.usda.gov/historical-wasde-report-data","date":"2026-06-06T11:33:23.605Z","confidence":90,"severity":"high","evidenceKey":"impact:usda-wasde-mexico-soymeal-stocks-monthly-balance-impact","score":6621},{"id":"impact:usda-ers-feed-grains-corn-ending-stocks-feed-margin-impact","kind":"impact","kindLabel":"Driver impact","title":"Corn ending stocks changes feed-margin pressure","read":"1,957 million bushels in the USDA ERS Feed Grains Database. This is an official feed, forage, and byproduct-cost input for cattle breakevens.","producerAction":"Reprice the next feed turn now: compare local corn, hay, protein, freight, and cattle bids before holding weight or leaving ration coverage open.","sourceId":"usda-ers-feed-grains","sourceName":"USDA ERS Feed Grains Database","sourceUrl":"https://ers.usda.gov/data-products/feed-grains-database/documentation","date":"2026-06-06T11:33:23.605Z","confidence":90,"severity":"high","evidenceKey":"impact:usda-ers-feed-grains-corn-ending-stocks-feed-margin-impact","score":6621},{"id":"impact:world-bank-pink-sheet-crude-oil-north-america-commodity-margin-impact","kind":"impact","kindLabel":"Driver impact","title":"North America Global Brent crude oil price is moving the margin stack","read":"107.5 $/bbl in the latest World Bank commodity sheet. Read this against pasture input, fertilizer, diesel, freight, and working capital.","producerAction":"Reprice the next gain period, forage plan, and delivered-feed bill before buying inputs or holding cattle longer.","sourceId":"world-bank-pink-sheet","sourceName":"World Bank commodity prices","sourceUrl":"https://www.worldbank.org/en/research/commodity-markets","date":"2026-06-06T11:33:23.605Z","confidence":84,"severity":"high","evidenceKey":"impact:world-bank-pink-sheet-crude-oil-north-america-commodity-margin-impact","score":6573},{"id":"impact:world-bank-pink-sheet-dap-north-america-commodity-margin-impact","kind":"impact","kindLabel":"Driver impact","title":"North America Global DAP fertilizer price is moving the margin stack","read":"770 $/mt in the latest World Bank commodity sheet. Read this against pasture input, fertilizer, diesel, freight, and working capital.","producerAction":"Reprice the next gain period, forage plan, and delivered-feed bill before buying inputs or holding cattle longer.","sourceId":"world-bank-pink-sheet","sourceName":"World Bank commodity prices","sourceUrl":"https://www.worldbank.org/en/research/commodity-markets","date":"2026-06-06T11:33:23.605Z","confidence":84,"severity":"high","evidenceKey":"impact:world-bank-pink-sheet-dap-north-america-commodity-margin-impact","score":6573}],"pastToFuture":[{"id":"pasture-stress-to-sale-runs","driver":"Pasture stress becomes sale pressure","lookbackWindow":"30-120 days","forwardWindow":"2-16 weeks","lag":"Pasture stress usually hits feed buying first, sale runs second, and replacement prices last.","leadingSignals":["Soil moisture drops below seasonal median","Pasture condition ratings deteriorate","Hay and supplement quotes firm before auction volume rises"],"forwardEffects":["More calves and cull cows move earlier","Replacement animals face discount risk in dry regions","Feed cost can erase the value of extra gain"],"producerDecision":"Move from calendar-based selling to forage-days and feed-margin selling.","confidence":86},{"id":"crop-balance-to-feed-margin","driver":"Crop balance becomes feed margin","lookbackWindow":"90 days to 5 years","forwardWindow":"1-18 months","lag":"Acreage and crop condition lead production; production leads feed price; feed price leads cattle and milk margins.","leadingSignals":["Acreage, crop progress, and soil moisture shift together","Balance-sheet revisions tighten ending stocks","Rail, freight, or port pressure widens local basis"],"forwardEffects":["Backgrounding and finishing margins compress","Dairy ration spend rises before cull flow changes","Crop producers may gain price opportunity while livestock producers face cost risk"],"producerDecision":"Use the crop balance to decide feed coverage, hay buying, grain pricing, and stocking rate.","confidence":84},{"id":"health-alert-to-market-access","driver":"Animal-health alerts become market-access friction","lookbackWindow":"Same day to 5 years","forwardWindow":"Same day to 12 months","lag":"A disease notice can affect movement immediately, then trade access and buyer confidence over weeks or months.","leadingSignals":["Official disease notice or surveillance update","Movement guidance, testing rules, or border language changes","Buyer discounts appear before broad price averages adjust"],"forwardEffects":["Movement costs and delays rise","Export eligibility or buyer confidence can narrow","Biosecurity spend becomes part of the margin calculation"],"producerDecision":"Check health status before moving cattle, buying replacements, or signing export-sensitive commitments.","confidence":83},{"id":"export-pull-to-local-basis","driver":"Export pull changes local basis","lookbackWindow":"4-52 weeks","forwardWindow":"1-12 weeks","lag":"Export sales lead shipments; shipments lead customs totals; customs totals confirm structural demand.","leadingSignals":["Weekly sales or attaché reports change before monthly trade files","Destination concentration rises","Currency makes local supply cheaper or dearer to importers"],"forwardEffects":["Processor bids widen or narrow by export access","Feed and crop basis shifts around ports and corridors","Sanitary or border events can erase the signal quickly"],"producerDecision":"Price cattle and crops with local basis plus destination exposure, not only the national headline.","confidence":82},{"id":"heat-load-to-milk-gain","driver":"Heat load becomes milk and weight-gain drag","lookbackWindow":"7-90 days","forwardWindow":"Same day to 12 weeks","lag":"Heat and humidity affect intake first, then milk, weight gain, conception, and sale timing.","leadingSignals":["Temperature-humidity pressure rises for multiple days","Water demand and night cooling fail to reset","Feed intake falls before production reports update"],"forwardEffects":["Milk output and components weaken","Finishing cattle gain less efficiently","Water, shade, and ration timing become margin controls"],"producerDecision":"Move heat mitigation and ration timing ahead of sale-weight or milk-output assumptions.","confidence":82}],"scenarioTests":[{"id":"heat-stress-milk-loss","name":"Heat stress cuts milk and gain","sector":"dairy","defaultIntensity":44,"description":"Temperature, humidity, and water stress reduce milk output, weight gain, conception, and pasture recovery.","producerDecision":"Prioritize shade, water, ration timing, and sale weights before the heat signal shows up in production reports.","outputs":[{"label":"Milk-yield loss","baseline":12,"unit":"%","perIntensityPoint":0.44,"direction":"higher-is-risk"},{"label":"Weight-gain drag","baseline":14,"unit":"%","perIntensityPoint":0.39,"direction":"higher-is-risk"},{"label":"Cooling and water urgency","baseline":28,"unit":"%","perIntensityPoint":0.58,"direction":"higher-is-risk"}]},{"id":"drought-shock","name":"Drought tightens forage","sector":"feed","defaultIntensity":42,"description":"Pasture weakens, hay gets tighter, and more cows or calves can move earlier than planned.","producerDecision":"Check forage inventory, water, and the value of selling lighter cattle before everyone else is forced to.","outputs":[{"label":"Hay cost risk","baseline":28,"unit":"%","perIntensityPoint":0.72,"direction":"higher-is-risk"},{"label":"Early sale pressure","baseline":22,"unit":"%","perIntensityPoint":0.58,"direction":"higher-is-risk"},{"label":"Pasture carrying days","baseline":64,"unit":"days","perIntensityPoint":-0.42,"direction":"lower-is-risk"}]},{"id":"crop-yield-shock","name":"Crop yield shock","sector":"crops","defaultIntensity":38,"description":"Soil moisture, heat, and rainfall patterns point to lower crop yields before harvest data is published.","producerDecision":"Decide whether to protect feed needs, price grain, adjust planting, or buy hay before local shortages are obvious.","outputs":[{"label":"Feed cost pressure","baseline":24,"unit":"%","perIntensityPoint":0.64,"direction":"higher-is-risk"},{"label":"Yield downside","baseline":18,"unit":"%","perIntensityPoint":0.52,"direction":"higher-is-risk"},{"label":"Hedging urgency","baseline":31,"unit":"%","perIntensityPoint":0.48,"direction":"higher-is-risk"}]},{"id":"geopolitical-shipping-shock","name":"War and shipping disruption","sector":"feed","defaultIntensity":37,"description":"Conflict, sanctions, canal disruption, or route risk changes grain, fertilizer, fuel, freight, and protein trade costs.","producerDecision":"Before holding cattle for more gain, check whether war or shipping risk has changed delivered feed, fertilizer, freight, or buyer access.","outputs":[{"label":"Delivered-input risk","baseline":24,"unit":"%","perIntensityPoint":0.69,"direction":"higher-is-risk"},{"label":"Basis and freight drag","baseline":21,"unit":"%","perIntensityPoint":0.64,"direction":"higher-is-risk"},{"label":"Local substitution value","baseline":30,"unit":"%","perIntensityPoint":0.35,"direction":"higher-is-opportunity"}]},{"id":"port-freight-shock","name":"Port and freight shock","sector":"feed","defaultIntensity":36,"description":"Port congestion, fuel, border friction, or shipping disruption widens the gap between farm price and destination price.","producerDecision":"Before moving cattle, hay, grain, milk, or inputs, test whether freight has already eaten the price signal.","outputs":[{"label":"Delivered-feed risk","baseline":26,"unit":"%","perIntensityPoint":0.73,"direction":"higher-is-risk"},{"label":"Export basis drag","baseline":22,"unit":"%","perIntensityPoint":0.59,"direction":"higher-is-risk"},{"label":"Local arbitrage window","baseline":35,"unit":"%","perIntensityPoint":0.32,"direction":"higher-is-opportunity"}]}],"localBoards":[{"id":"united-states-feed-belt","name":"United States feed and crop belt","country":"United States","kind":"Feed belt","risk":70,"opportunity":84,"estimatedSeries":546,"decisionUse":"Use feed grain, hay, protein meal, crop progress, fuel, and credit signals before buying feed or holding weight longer.","watchSignal":"Delivered feed basis, crop yield risk, freight, diesel, and financing pressure."},{"id":"united-states-dairy-belt","name":"United States dairy and processor belt","country":"United States","kind":"Dairy belt","risk":70,"opportunity":83,"estimatedSeries":730,"decisionUse":"Use milk price, solids, feed cost, cull-cow flow, and processor demand before changing ration, culling, or replacement plans.","watchSignal":"Milk-feed spread, processor pull, dairy-beef supply, and replacement economics."},{"id":"united-states-pasture-basin","name":"United States pasture and water basin","country":"United States","kind":"Pasture basin","risk":69,"opportunity":83,"estimatedSeries":709,"decisionUse":"Use rainfall, heat, water, pasture, and forage signals before changing stocking rate, sale pressure, or supplement buying.","watchSignal":"Pasture recovery, water stress, heat load, hay availability, and forced-sale risk."},{"id":"united-states-trade-corridor","name":"United States trade and health corridor","country":"United States","kind":"Trade corridor","risk":68,"opportunity":84,"estimatedSeries":627,"decisionUse":"Use export access, border movement, disease notices, freight, currency, and policy signals before committing volume.","watchSignal":"Destination concentration, sanitary access, port flow, border friction, and currency translation."},{"id":"canada-feed-belt","name":"Canada feed and crop belt","country":"Canada","kind":"Feed belt","risk":67,"opportunity":84,"estimatedSeries":546,"decisionUse":"Use feed grain, hay, protein meal, crop progress, fuel, and credit signals before buying feed or holding weight longer.","watchSignal":"Delivered feed basis, crop yield risk, freight, diesel, and financing pressure."}],"coverageGaps":[{"id":"canada-beef-dairy-trade","country":"Canada","layer":"Beef, dairy, live animal, grain, and feed trade flows","status":"api-ready","category":"Trade","estimatedSeries":120,"producerRisk":"Export pull, import pressure, destination risk, and local basis.","nextCheck":"Maps customs movement into buyer-access and feed-cost signals."},{"id":"mexico-beef-dairy-trade","country":"Mexico","layer":"Beef, dairy, live animal, grain, and feed trade flows","status":"api-ready","category":"Trade","estimatedSeries":120,"producerRisk":"Export pull, import pressure, destination risk, and local basis.","nextCheck":"Maps customs movement into buyer-access and feed-cost signals."},{"id":"united-states-beef-dairy-trade","country":"United States","layer":"Beef, dairy, live animal, grain, and feed trade flows","status":"api-ready","category":"Trade","estimatedSeries":120,"producerRisk":"Export pull, import pressure, destination risk, and local basis.","nextCheck":"Maps customs movement into buyer-access and feed-cost signals."},{"id":"canada-crop-progress-production","country":"Canada","layer":"Crop area, progress, yield, production, stocks, and balance sheets","status":"api-ready","category":"Crops","estimatedSeries":110,"producerRisk":"Feed supply, crop margins, ration substitution, and stocking rate.","nextCheck":"Connects crop balance to feed margin and cattle timing."},{"id":"mexico-crop-progress-production","country":"Mexico","layer":"Crop area, progress, yield, production, stocks, and balance sheets","status":"api-ready","category":"Crops","estimatedSeries":110,"producerRisk":"Feed supply, crop margins, ration substitution, and stocking rate.","nextCheck":"Connects crop balance to feed margin and cattle timing."},{"id":"united-states-crop-progress-production","country":"United States","layer":"Crop area, progress, yield, production, stocks, and balance sheets","status":"api-ready","category":"Crops","estimatedSeries":110,"producerRisk":"Feed supply, crop margins, ration substitution, and stocking rate.","nextCheck":"Connects crop balance to feed margin and cattle timing."},{"id":"canada-herd-inventory","country":"Canada","layer":"Bovine herd, cow inventory, calf crop, and replacement numbers","status":"api-ready","category":"Inventory","estimatedSeries":80,"producerRisk":"Herd rebuild, replacement value, long-cycle supply, and basis.","nextCheck":"Links structural supply to future cattle availability."},{"id":"mexico-herd-inventory","country":"Mexico","layer":"Bovine herd, cow inventory, calf crop, and replacement numbers","status":"api-ready","category":"Inventory","estimatedSeries":80,"producerRisk":"Herd rebuild, replacement value, long-cycle supply, and basis.","nextCheck":"Links structural supply to future cattle availability."}],"decisionChain":[{"id":"feed-crop-margin:question","label":"Question","title":"Are corn, soy meal, hay, fertilizer, diesel, or crop balance changing the value of weight gain?","detail":"Crop balance and input costs often move cattle margins before cattle headlines do."},{"id":"feed-crop-margin:signal","label":"Current signal","title":"U.S. corn ending stocks changes the monthly feed and supply read","detail":"1,957 million bushels in the May 2026 WASDE for 2026/27; -8.6% versus 2025/26. This is the official monthly bridge from crop/feed balance to cattle, milk, and sale timing."},{"id":"feed-crop-margin:effect","label":"Market effect","title":"Sale timing, weight class target, and hedge urgency","detail":"Sell now, add pounds, or price-protect cattle before bids soften."},{"id":"feed-crop-margin:history","label":"Past pattern","title":"Pasture stress becomes sale pressure","detail":"30-120 days -> 2-16 weeks: Pasture stress usually hits feed buying first, sale runs second, and replacement prices last."},{"id":"feed-crop-margin:scenario","label":"Scenario","title":"Heat stress cuts milk and gain","detail":"Temperature, humidity, and water stress reduce milk output, weight gain, conception, and pasture recovery."},{"id":"feed-crop-margin:action","label":"Action","title":"United States feed and crop belt, United States","detail":"Use feed grain, hay, protein meal, crop progress, fuel, and credit signals before buying feed or holding weight longer."}],"citationText":"Feed and crop margin for north-america is watch with 287 current signals, 11 historical patterns, and 12 scenarios."},{"id":"decision-readiness:north-america:sell-hold-or-hedge","lensId":"sell-hold-or-hedge","label":"Sell, hold, or hedge","question":"Does the next weight gain still pay after feed, freight, basis, and buyer risk?","headline":"Starts with cash prices, futures positioning, feed spreads, and local basis before a producer changes sale timing.","producerAction":"Compare today’s bid against the cost and risk of carrying cattle through the next gain window.","refreshCadence":"Daily to weekly","sectors":["beef","feed","crops"],"readinessStatus":"watch","readinessLabel":"Watch","readinessScore":77,"summary":{"evidenceItems":245,"liveObservations":38,"driverImpacts":121,"marketEvents":54,"temporalSignals":2,"causalPaths":30,"sourceFamilies":28,"liveSourceFamilies":22,"mappedMarketFeeds":84,"estimatedPublicSeries":5223,"sourceGraphEdges":28,"historicalDrivers":9,"scenarios":10,"localMarkets":15},"currentSignals":[{"id":"impact:usda-ers-feed-grains-corn-ending-stocks-feed-margin-impact","kind":"impact","kindLabel":"Driver impact","title":"Corn ending stocks changes feed-margin pressure","read":"1,957 million bushels in the USDA ERS Feed Grains Database. This is an official feed, forage, and byproduct-cost input for cattle breakevens.","producerAction":"Reprice the next feed turn now: compare local corn, hay, protein, freight, and cattle bids before holding weight or leaving ration coverage open.","sourceId":"usda-ers-feed-grains","sourceName":"USDA ERS Feed Grains Database","sourceUrl":"https://ers.usda.gov/data-products/feed-grains-database/documentation","date":"2026-06-06T11:33:23.605Z","confidence":90,"severity":"high","evidenceKey":"impact:usda-ers-feed-grains-corn-ending-stocks-feed-margin-impact","score":6621},{"id":"impact:cftc-cot-corn-hedge-margin-impact","kind":"impact","kindLabel":"Driver impact","title":"Corn COT positioning changes hedge and feed-risk timing","read":"6 % net long / open interest in the latest CFTC Commitments of Traders report. Feed futures positioning is a weekly early-warning signal for ration coverage and crop-feed exposure.","producerAction":"Use the COT feed read with local corn, hay, freight, and weather before delaying ration coverage or holding cattle for extra gain.","sourceId":"cftc-cot","sourceName":"CFTC Commitments of Traders","sourceUrl":"https://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/index.htm","date":"2026-06-06T11:33:23.605Z","confidence":86,"severity":"high","evidenceKey":"impact:cftc-cot-corn-hedge-margin-impact","score":6619},{"id":"impact:cftc-cot-live-cattle-hedge-margin-impact","kind":"impact","kindLabel":"Driver impact","title":"Live cattle COT positioning changes hedge and feed-risk timing","read":"34 % net long / open interest in the latest CFTC Commitments of Traders report. Cattle positioning is a weekly early-warning signal for hedge urgency, retained ownership, and basis risk.","producerAction":"Use the COT cattle read with local cash bids before holding unhedged cattle weight or assuming buyer leverage will stay unchanged.","sourceId":"cftc-cot","sourceName":"CFTC Commitments of Traders","sourceUrl":"https://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/index.htm","date":"2026-06-06T11:33:23.605Z","confidence":88,"severity":"high","evidenceKey":"impact:cftc-cot-live-cattle-hedge-margin-impact","score":6605},{"id":"impact:world-bank-pink-sheet-crude-oil-north-america-commodity-margin-impact","kind":"impact","kindLabel":"Driver impact","title":"North America Global Brent crude oil price is moving the margin stack","read":"107.5 $/bbl in the latest World Bank commodity sheet. Read this against pasture input, fertilizer, diesel, freight, and working capital.","producerAction":"Reprice the next gain period, forage plan, and delivered-feed bill before buying inputs or holding cattle longer.","sourceId":"world-bank-pink-sheet","sourceName":"World Bank commodity prices","sourceUrl":"https://www.worldbank.org/en/research/commodity-markets","date":"2026-06-06T11:33:23.605Z","confidence":84,"severity":"high","evidenceKey":"impact:world-bank-pink-sheet-crude-oil-north-america-commodity-margin-impact","score":6573},{"id":"impact:world-bank-pink-sheet-dap-north-america-commodity-margin-impact","kind":"impact","kindLabel":"Driver impact","title":"North America Global DAP fertilizer price is moving the margin stack","read":"770 $/mt in the latest World Bank commodity sheet. Read this against pasture input, fertilizer, diesel, freight, and working capital.","producerAction":"Reprice the next gain period, forage plan, and delivered-feed bill before buying inputs or holding cattle longer.","sourceId":"world-bank-pink-sheet","sourceName":"World Bank commodity prices","sourceUrl":"https://www.worldbank.org/en/research/commodity-markets","date":"2026-06-06T11:33:23.605Z","confidence":84,"severity":"high","evidenceKey":"impact:world-bank-pink-sheet-dap-north-america-commodity-margin-impact","score":6573},{"id":"impact:world-bank-pink-sheet-urea-north-america-commodity-margin-impact","kind":"impact","kindLabel":"Driver impact","title":"North America Global urea fertilizer price is moving the margin stack","read":"771 $/mt in the latest World Bank commodity sheet. Read this against pasture input, fertilizer, diesel, freight, and working capital.","producerAction":"Reprice the next gain period, forage plan, and delivered-feed bill before buying inputs or holding cattle longer.","sourceId":"world-bank-pink-sheet","sourceName":"World Bank commodity prices","sourceUrl":"https://www.worldbank.org/en/research/commodity-markets","date":"2026-06-06T11:33:23.605Z","confidence":84,"severity":"high","evidenceKey":"impact:world-bank-pink-sheet-urea-north-america-commodity-margin-impact","score":6573},{"id":"impact:world-bank-pink-sheet-maize-north-america-commodity-margin-impact","kind":"impact","kindLabel":"Driver impact","title":"North America Global maize price is moving the margin stack","read":"216 $/mt in the latest World Bank commodity sheet. Read this against ration cost, hay substitution, and feeder bids.","producerAction":"Reprice the next gain period, forage plan, and delivered-feed bill before buying inputs or holding cattle longer.","sourceId":"world-bank-pink-sheet","sourceName":"World Bank commodity prices","sourceUrl":"https://www.worldbank.org/en/research/commodity-markets","date":"2026-06-06T11:33:23.605Z","confidence":78,"severity":"high","evidenceKey":"impact:world-bank-pink-sheet-maize-north-america-commodity-margin-impact","score":6525},{"id":"impact:world-bank-pink-sheet-soybean-meal-north-america-commodity-margin-impact","kind":"impact","kindLabel":"Driver impact","title":"North America Global soybean meal price is moving the margin stack","read":"421 $/mt in the latest World Bank commodity sheet. Read this against ration cost, hay substitution, and feeder bids.","producerAction":"Reprice the next gain period, forage plan, and delivered-feed bill before buying inputs or holding cattle longer.","sourceId":"world-bank-pink-sheet","sourceName":"World Bank commodity prices","sourceUrl":"https://www.worldbank.org/en/research/commodity-markets","date":"2026-06-06T11:33:23.605Z","confidence":78,"severity":"high","evidenceKey":"impact:world-bank-pink-sheet-soybean-meal-north-america-commodity-margin-impact","score":6525}],"pastToFuture":[{"id":"pasture-stress-to-sale-runs","driver":"Pasture stress becomes sale pressure","lookbackWindow":"30-120 days","forwardWindow":"2-16 weeks","lag":"Pasture stress usually hits feed buying first, sale runs second, and replacement prices last.","leadingSignals":["Soil moisture drops below seasonal median","Pasture condition ratings deteriorate","Hay and supplement quotes firm before auction volume rises"],"forwardEffects":["More calves and cull cows move earlier","Replacement animals face discount risk in dry regions","Feed cost can erase the value of extra gain"],"producerDecision":"Move from calendar-based selling to forage-days and feed-margin selling.","confidence":86},{"id":"crop-balance-to-feed-margin","driver":"Crop balance becomes feed margin","lookbackWindow":"90 days to 5 years","forwardWindow":"1-18 months","lag":"Acreage and crop condition lead production; production leads feed price; feed price leads cattle and milk margins.","leadingSignals":["Acreage, crop progress, and soil moisture shift together","Balance-sheet revisions tighten ending stocks","Rail, freight, or port pressure widens local basis"],"forwardEffects":["Backgrounding and finishing margins compress","Dairy ration spend rises before cull flow changes","Crop producers may gain price opportunity while livestock producers face cost risk"],"producerDecision":"Use the crop balance to decide feed coverage, hay buying, grain pricing, and stocking rate.","confidence":84},{"id":"export-pull-to-local-basis","driver":"Export pull changes local basis","lookbackWindow":"4-52 weeks","forwardWindow":"1-12 weeks","lag":"Export sales lead shipments; shipments lead customs totals; customs totals confirm structural demand.","leadingSignals":["Weekly sales or attaché reports change before monthly trade files","Destination concentration rises","Currency makes local supply cheaper or dearer to importers"],"forwardEffects":["Processor bids widen or narrow by export access","Feed and crop basis shifts around ports and corridors","Sanitary or border events can erase the signal quickly"],"producerDecision":"Price cattle and crops with local basis plus destination exposure, not only the national headline.","confidence":82},{"id":"heat-load-to-milk-gain","driver":"Heat load becomes milk and weight-gain drag","lookbackWindow":"7-90 days","forwardWindow":"Same day to 12 weeks","lag":"Heat and humidity affect intake first, then milk, weight gain, conception, and sale timing.","leadingSignals":["Temperature-humidity pressure rises for multiple days","Water demand and night cooling fail to reset","Feed intake falls before production reports update"],"forwardEffects":["Milk output and components weaken","Finishing cattle gain less efficiently","Water, shade, and ration timing become margin controls"],"producerDecision":"Move heat mitigation and ration timing ahead of sale-weight or milk-output assumptions.","confidence":82},{"id":"dairy-margin-to-beef-supply","driver":"Dairy margins become beef supply","lookbackWindow":"4-26 weeks","forwardWindow":"2-20 weeks","lag":"Milk price and feed cost hit dairy margins before cull cow flow and beef supply respond.","leadingSignals":["Milk-feed spread narrows","Dairy auction prices weaken","Feed and energy prices rise together"],"forwardEffects":["Cull cows enter beef supply","Replacement appetite weakens","Milk output can fall after ration cuts"],"producerDecision":"Reprice ration, cull timing, and replacement purchases before monthly milk checks settle.","confidence":81}],"scenarioTests":[{"id":"drought-shock","name":"Drought tightens forage","sector":"feed","defaultIntensity":42,"description":"Pasture weakens, hay gets tighter, and more cows or calves can move earlier than planned.","producerDecision":"Check forage inventory, water, and the value of selling lighter cattle before everyone else is forced to.","outputs":[{"label":"Hay cost risk","baseline":28,"unit":"%","perIntensityPoint":0.72,"direction":"higher-is-risk"},{"label":"Early sale pressure","baseline":22,"unit":"%","perIntensityPoint":0.58,"direction":"higher-is-risk"},{"label":"Pasture carrying days","baseline":64,"unit":"days","perIntensityPoint":-0.42,"direction":"lower-is-risk"}]},{"id":"crop-yield-shock","name":"Crop yield shock","sector":"crops","defaultIntensity":38,"description":"Soil moisture, heat, and rainfall patterns point to lower crop yields before harvest data is published.","producerDecision":"Decide whether to protect feed needs, price grain, adjust planting, or buy hay before local shortages are obvious.","outputs":[{"label":"Feed cost pressure","baseline":24,"unit":"%","perIntensityPoint":0.64,"direction":"higher-is-risk"},{"label":"Yield downside","baseline":18,"unit":"%","perIntensityPoint":0.52,"direction":"higher-is-risk"},{"label":"Hedging urgency","baseline":31,"unit":"%","perIntensityPoint":0.48,"direction":"higher-is-risk"}]},{"id":"geopolitical-shipping-shock","name":"War and shipping disruption","sector":"feed","defaultIntensity":37,"description":"Conflict, sanctions, canal disruption, or route risk changes grain, fertilizer, fuel, freight, and protein trade costs.","producerDecision":"Before holding cattle for more gain, check whether war or shipping risk has changed delivered feed, fertilizer, freight, or buyer access.","outputs":[{"label":"Delivered-input risk","baseline":24,"unit":"%","perIntensityPoint":0.69,"direction":"higher-is-risk"},{"label":"Basis and freight drag","baseline":21,"unit":"%","perIntensityPoint":0.64,"direction":"higher-is-risk"},{"label":"Local substitution value","baseline":30,"unit":"%","perIntensityPoint":0.35,"direction":"higher-is-opportunity"}]},{"id":"port-freight-shock","name":"Port and freight shock","sector":"feed","defaultIntensity":36,"description":"Port congestion, fuel, border friction, or shipping disruption widens the gap between farm price and destination price.","producerDecision":"Before moving cattle, hay, grain, milk, or inputs, test whether freight has already eaten the price signal.","outputs":[{"label":"Delivered-feed risk","baseline":26,"unit":"%","perIntensityPoint":0.73,"direction":"higher-is-risk"},{"label":"Export basis drag","baseline":22,"unit":"%","perIntensityPoint":0.59,"direction":"higher-is-risk"},{"label":"Local arbitrage window","baseline":35,"unit":"%","perIntensityPoint":0.32,"direction":"higher-is-opportunity"}]},{"id":"feed-cost-spike","name":"Feed cost spike","sector":"feed","defaultIntensity":35,"description":"Corn, hay, soybean meal, fuel, or freight costs rise faster than cattle value.","producerDecision":"Recalculate whether the next gain period is still worth feeding.","outputs":[{"label":"Feed breakeven pressure","baseline":34,"unit":"%","perIntensityPoint":0.66,"direction":"higher-is-risk"},{"label":"Margin cushion","baseline":24,"unit":"%","perIntensityPoint":-0.45,"direction":"lower-is-risk"},{"label":"Freight sensitivity","baseline":18,"unit":"%","perIntensityPoint":0.31,"direction":"higher-is-risk"}]}],"localBoards":[{"id":"united-states-feed-belt","name":"United States feed and crop belt","country":"United States","kind":"Feed belt","risk":70,"opportunity":84,"estimatedSeries":546,"decisionUse":"Use feed grain, hay, protein meal, crop progress, fuel, and credit signals before buying feed or holding weight longer.","watchSignal":"Delivered feed basis, crop yield risk, freight, diesel, and financing pressure."},{"id":"united-states-dairy-belt","name":"United States dairy and processor belt","country":"United States","kind":"Dairy belt","risk":70,"opportunity":83,"estimatedSeries":730,"decisionUse":"Use milk price, solids, feed cost, cull-cow flow, and processor demand before changing ration, culling, or replacement plans.","watchSignal":"Milk-feed spread, processor pull, dairy-beef supply, and replacement economics."},{"id":"united-states-pasture-basin","name":"United States pasture and water basin","country":"United States","kind":"Pasture basin","risk":69,"opportunity":83,"estimatedSeries":709,"decisionUse":"Use rainfall, heat, water, pasture, and forage signals before changing stocking rate, sale pressure, or supplement buying.","watchSignal":"Pasture recovery, water stress, heat load, hay availability, and forced-sale risk."},{"id":"united-states-trade-corridor","name":"United States trade and health corridor","country":"United States","kind":"Trade corridor","risk":68,"opportunity":84,"estimatedSeries":627,"decisionUse":"Use export access, border movement, disease notices, freight, currency, and policy signals before committing volume.","watchSignal":"Destination concentration, sanitary access, port flow, border friction, and currency translation."},{"id":"canada-feed-belt","name":"Canada feed and crop belt","country":"Canada","kind":"Feed belt","risk":67,"opportunity":84,"estimatedSeries":546,"decisionUse":"Use feed grain, hay, protein meal, crop progress, fuel, and credit signals before buying feed or holding weight longer.","watchSignal":"Delivered feed basis, crop yield risk, freight, diesel, and financing pressure."}],"coverageGaps":[{"id":"canada-beef-dairy-trade","country":"Canada","layer":"Beef, dairy, live animal, grain, and feed trade flows","status":"api-ready","category":"Trade","estimatedSeries":120,"producerRisk":"Export pull, import pressure, destination risk, and local basis.","nextCheck":"Maps customs movement into buyer-access and feed-cost signals."},{"id":"mexico-beef-dairy-trade","country":"Mexico","layer":"Beef, dairy, live animal, grain, and feed trade flows","status":"api-ready","category":"Trade","estimatedSeries":120,"producerRisk":"Export pull, import pressure, destination risk, and local basis.","nextCheck":"Maps customs movement into buyer-access and feed-cost signals."},{"id":"united-states-beef-dairy-trade","country":"United States","layer":"Beef, dairy, live animal, grain, and feed trade flows","status":"api-ready","category":"Trade","estimatedSeries":120,"producerRisk":"Export pull, import pressure, destination risk, and local basis.","nextCheck":"Maps customs movement into buyer-access and feed-cost signals."},{"id":"canada-crop-progress-production","country":"Canada","layer":"Crop area, progress, yield, production, stocks, and balance sheets","status":"api-ready","category":"Crops","estimatedSeries":110,"producerRisk":"Feed supply, crop margins, ration substitution, and stocking rate.","nextCheck":"Connects crop balance to feed margin and cattle timing."},{"id":"mexico-crop-progress-production","country":"Mexico","layer":"Crop area, progress, yield, production, stocks, and balance sheets","status":"api-ready","category":"Crops","estimatedSeries":110,"producerRisk":"Feed supply, crop margins, ration substitution, and stocking rate.","nextCheck":"Connects crop balance to feed margin and cattle timing."},{"id":"united-states-crop-progress-production","country":"United States","layer":"Crop area, progress, yield, production, stocks, and balance sheets","status":"api-ready","category":"Crops","estimatedSeries":110,"producerRisk":"Feed supply, crop margins, ration substitution, and stocking rate.","nextCheck":"Connects crop balance to feed margin and cattle timing."},{"id":"canada-herd-inventory","country":"Canada","layer":"Bovine herd, cow inventory, calf crop, and replacement numbers","status":"api-ready","category":"Inventory","estimatedSeries":80,"producerRisk":"Herd rebuild, replacement value, long-cycle supply, and basis.","nextCheck":"Links structural supply to future cattle availability."},{"id":"mexico-herd-inventory","country":"Mexico","layer":"Bovine herd, cow inventory, calf crop, and replacement numbers","status":"api-ready","category":"Inventory","estimatedSeries":80,"producerRisk":"Herd rebuild, replacement value, long-cycle supply, and basis.","nextCheck":"Links structural supply to future cattle availability."}],"decisionChain":[{"id":"sell-hold-or-hedge:question","label":"Question","title":"Does the next weight gain still pay after feed, freight, basis, and buyer risk?","detail":"Starts with cash prices, futures positioning, feed spreads, and local basis before a producer changes sale timing."},{"id":"sell-hold-or-hedge:signal","label":"Current signal","title":"Corn ending stocks changes feed-margin pressure","detail":"1,957 million bushels in the USDA ERS Feed Grains Database. This is an official feed, forage, and byproduct-cost input for cattle breakevens."},{"id":"sell-hold-or-hedge:effect","label":"Market effect","title":"Sale timing, weight class target, and hedge urgency","detail":"Sell now, add pounds, or price-protect cattle before bids soften."},{"id":"sell-hold-or-hedge:history","label":"Past pattern","title":"Pasture stress becomes sale pressure","detail":"30-120 days -> 2-16 weeks: Pasture stress usually hits feed buying first, sale runs second, and replacement prices last."},{"id":"sell-hold-or-hedge:scenario","label":"Scenario","title":"Drought tightens forage","detail":"Pasture weakens, hay gets tighter, and more cows or calves can move earlier than planned."},{"id":"sell-hold-or-hedge:action","label":"Action","title":"United States feed and crop belt, United States","detail":"Use feed grain, hay, protein meal, crop progress, fuel, and credit signals before buying feed or holding weight longer."}],"citationText":"Sell, hold, or hedge for north-america is watch with 245 current signals, 9 historical patterns, and 10 scenarios."}],"coverageGaps":[{"id":"canada-beef-dairy-trade","country":"Canada","layer":"Beef, dairy, live animal, grain, and feed trade flows","status":"api-ready","category":"Trade","estimatedSeries":120,"producerRisk":"Export pull, import pressure, destination risk, and local basis.","nextCheck":"Maps customs movement into buyer-access and feed-cost signals."},{"id":"mexico-beef-dairy-trade","country":"Mexico","layer":"Beef, dairy, live animal, grain, and feed trade flows","status":"api-ready","category":"Trade","estimatedSeries":120,"producerRisk":"Export pull, import pressure, destination risk, and local basis.","nextCheck":"Maps customs movement into buyer-access and feed-cost signals."},{"id":"united-states-beef-dairy-trade","country":"United States","layer":"Beef, dairy, live animal, grain, and feed trade flows","status":"api-ready","category":"Trade","estimatedSeries":120,"producerRisk":"Export pull, import pressure, destination risk, and local basis.","nextCheck":"Maps customs movement into buyer-access and feed-cost signals."},{"id":"canada-crop-progress-production","country":"Canada","layer":"Crop area, progress, yield, production, stocks, and balance sheets","status":"api-ready","category":"Crops","estimatedSeries":110,"producerRisk":"Feed supply, crop margins, ration substitution, and stocking rate.","nextCheck":"Connects crop balance to feed margin and cattle timing."},{"id":"mexico-crop-progress-production","country":"Mexico","layer":"Crop area, progress, yield, production, stocks, and balance sheets","status":"api-ready","category":"Crops","estimatedSeries":110,"producerRisk":"Feed supply, crop margins, ration substitution, and stocking rate.","nextCheck":"Connects crop balance to feed margin and cattle timing."},{"id":"united-states-crop-progress-production","country":"United States","layer":"Crop area, progress, yield, production, stocks, and balance sheets","status":"api-ready","category":"Crops","estimatedSeries":110,"producerRisk":"Feed supply, crop margins, ration substitution, and stocking rate.","nextCheck":"Connects crop balance to feed margin and cattle timing."},{"id":"canada-herd-inventory","country":"Canada","layer":"Bovine herd, cow inventory, calf crop, and replacement numbers","status":"api-ready","category":"Inventory","estimatedSeries":80,"producerRisk":"Herd rebuild, replacement value, long-cycle supply, and basis.","nextCheck":"Links structural supply to future cattle availability."},{"id":"mexico-herd-inventory","country":"Mexico","layer":"Bovine herd, cow inventory, calf crop, and replacement numbers","status":"api-ready","category":"Inventory","estimatedSeries":80,"producerRisk":"Herd rebuild, replacement value, long-cycle supply, and basis.","nextCheck":"Links structural supply to future cattle availability."},{"id":"canada-beef-dairy-trade","country":"Canada","layer":"Beef, dairy, live animal, grain, and feed trade flows","status":"api-ready","category":"Trade","estimatedSeries":120,"producerRisk":"Export pull, import pressure, destination risk, and local basis.","nextCheck":"Maps customs movement into buyer-access and feed-cost signals."},{"id":"mexico-beef-dairy-trade","country":"Mexico","layer":"Beef, dairy, live animal, grain, and feed trade flows","status":"api-ready","category":"Trade","estimatedSeries":120,"producerRisk":"Export pull, import pressure, destination risk, and local basis.","nextCheck":"Maps customs movement into buyer-access and feed-cost signals."},{"id":"united-states-beef-dairy-trade","country":"United States","layer":"Beef, dairy, live animal, grain, and feed trade flows","status":"api-ready","category":"Trade","estimatedSeries":120,"producerRisk":"Export pull, import pressure, destination risk, and local basis.","nextCheck":"Maps customs movement into buyer-access and feed-cost signals."},{"id":"canada-crop-progress-production","country":"Canada","layer":"Crop area, progress, yield, production, stocks, and balance sheets","status":"api-ready","category":"Crops","estimatedSeries":110,"producerRisk":"Feed supply, crop margins, ration substitution, and stocking rate.","nextCheck":"Connects crop balance to feed margin and cattle timing."}],"citationText":"North America decision readiness ranks 3 regional decisions with 844 current signals and 0 ready decisions."},"readinessBoards":[{"id":"decision-readiness:north-america:all:en","type":"decision-readiness","title":"North America decision readiness","subtitle":"Shows whether each sale, feed, health, water, or trade decision is backed by current signals, history, scenarios, and local market coverage.","locale":"en","regionId":"north-america","regionName":"North America","sector":"all","generatedAt":"2026-06-06T23:07:32.348Z","snapshotGeneratedAt":"2026-06-06T11:33:23.605Z","snapshotWindow":{"startDate":"2026-05-28","endDate":"2026-06-03"},"updateCadence":"daily","isAccessibleForFree":true,"canonicalDataUrl":"https://cattleweightestimation.com/market-pulse/decision-readiness.json?region=north-america&sector=all&lang=en","summary":{"decisions":3,"strong":0,"watch":3,"thin":0,"evidenceItems":844,"sourceFamilies":5,"mappedMarketFeeds":264,"estimatedPublicSeries":16143,"historicalDrivers":6,"scenarios":6,"localMarkets":5},"statusBoards":[{"id":"strong","label":"Ready","decisions":0,"averageScore":0,"evidenceItems":0},{"id":"watch","label":"Watch","decisions":3,"averageScore":77,"evidenceItems":844},{"id":"thin","label":"Thin","decisions":0,"averageScore":0,"evidenceItems":0}],"topDecision":{"id":"decision-readiness:north-america:dairy-cull-margin","lensId":"dairy-cull-margin","label":"Dairy margin and cull flow","question":"Is milk margin changing ration spend, replacement appetite, or dairy-beef supply?","headline":"Milk, feed, energy, and cull-cow values feed directly into dairy and beef supply.","producerAction":"Reprice ration, culling, replacement, and dairy-beef timing together.","refreshCadence":"Weekly to monthly","sectors":["dairy","beef","feed"],"readinessStatus":"watch","readinessLabel":"Watch","readinessScore":77,"summary":{"evidenceItems":312,"liveObservations":55,"driverImpacts":117,"marketEvents":84,"temporalSignals":2,"causalPaths":54,"sourceFamilies":34,"liveSourceFamilies":25,"mappedMarketFeeds":93,"estimatedPublicSeries":5565,"sourceGraphEdges":36,"historicalDrivers":11,"scenarios":8,"localMarkets":15},"currentSignals":[{"id":"impact:world-bank-pink-sheet-crude-oil-north-america-commodity-margin-impact","kind":"impact","kindLabel":"Driver impact","title":"North America Global Brent crude oil price is moving the margin stack","read":"107.5 $/bbl in the latest World Bank commodity sheet. Read this against pasture input, fertilizer, diesel, freight, and working capital.","producerAction":"Reprice the next gain period, forage plan, and delivered-feed bill before buying inputs or holding cattle longer.","sourceId":"world-bank-pink-sheet","sourceName":"World Bank commodity prices","sourceUrl":"https://www.worldbank.org/en/research/commodity-markets","date":"2026-06-06T11:33:23.605Z","confidence":84,"severity":"high","evidenceKey":"impact:world-bank-pink-sheet-crude-oil-north-america-commodity-margin-impact","score":6573},{"id":"impact:world-bank-pink-sheet-dap-north-america-commodity-margin-impact","kind":"impact","kindLabel":"Driver impact","title":"North America Global DAP fertilizer price is moving the margin stack","read":"770 $/mt in the latest World Bank commodity sheet. Read this against pasture input, fertilizer, diesel, freight, and working capital.","producerAction":"Reprice the next gain period, forage plan, and delivered-feed bill before buying inputs or holding cattle longer.","sourceId":"world-bank-pink-sheet","sourceName":"World Bank commodity prices","sourceUrl":"https://www.worldbank.org/en/research/commodity-markets","date":"2026-06-06T11:33:23.605Z","confidence":84,"severity":"high","evidenceKey":"impact:world-bank-pink-sheet-dap-north-america-commodity-margin-impact","score":6573},{"id":"impact:world-bank-pink-sheet-urea-north-america-commodity-margin-impact","kind":"impact","kindLabel":"Driver impact","title":"North America Global urea fertilizer price is moving the margin stack","read":"771 $/mt in the latest World Bank commodity sheet. Read this against pasture input, fertilizer, diesel, freight, and working capital.","producerAction":"Reprice the next gain period, forage plan, and delivered-feed bill before buying inputs or holding cattle longer.","sourceId":"world-bank-pink-sheet","sourceName":"World Bank commodity prices","sourceUrl":"https://www.worldbank.org/en/research/commodity-markets","date":"2026-06-06T11:33:23.605Z","confidence":84,"severity":"high","evidenceKey":"impact:world-bank-pink-sheet-urea-north-america-commodity-margin-impact","score":6573},{"id":"impact:world-bank-pink-sheet-beef-north-america-commodity-margin-impact","kind":"impact","kindLabel":"Driver impact","title":"North America Global beef price is moving the margin stack","read":"7.95 $/kg in the latest World Bank commodity sheet. Read this against export demand, cull values, and local cattle basis.","producerAction":"Compare global beef with local bids before deciding whether weak local price is local supply, export demand, or currency.","sourceId":"world-bank-pink-sheet","sourceName":"World Bank commodity prices","sourceUrl":"https://www.worldbank.org/en/research/commodity-markets","date":"2026-06-06T11:33:23.605Z","confidence":78,"severity":"high","evidenceKey":"impact:world-bank-pink-sheet-beef-north-america-commodity-margin-impact","score":6555},{"id":"impact:world-bank-pink-sheet-maize-north-america-commodity-margin-impact","kind":"impact","kindLabel":"Driver impact","title":"North America Global maize price is moving the margin stack","read":"216 $/mt in the latest World Bank commodity sheet. Read this against ration cost, hay substitution, and feeder bids.","producerAction":"Reprice the next gain period, forage plan, and delivered-feed bill before buying inputs or holding cattle longer.","sourceId":"world-bank-pink-sheet","sourceName":"World Bank commodity prices","sourceUrl":"https://www.worldbank.org/en/research/commodity-markets","date":"2026-06-06T11:33:23.605Z","confidence":78,"severity":"high","evidenceKey":"impact:world-bank-pink-sheet-maize-north-america-commodity-margin-impact","score":6525},{"id":"impact:world-bank-pink-sheet-soybean-meal-north-america-commodity-margin-impact","kind":"impact","kindLabel":"Driver impact","title":"North America Global soybean meal price is moving the margin stack","read":"421 $/mt in the latest World Bank commodity sheet. Read this against ration cost, hay substitution, and feeder bids.","producerAction":"Reprice the next gain period, forage plan, and delivered-feed bill before buying inputs or holding cattle longer.","sourceId":"world-bank-pink-sheet","sourceName":"World Bank commodity prices","sourceUrl":"https://www.worldbank.org/en/research/commodity-markets","date":"2026-06-06T11:33:23.605Z","confidence":78,"severity":"high","evidenceKey":"impact:world-bank-pink-sheet-soybean-meal-north-america-commodity-margin-impact","score":6525},{"id":"impact:usda-nass-crop-progress-pasture-good-excellent-2026-06-01-official-report-impact","kind":"impact","kindLabel":"Driver impact","title":"U.S. pasture good/excellent changes the official crop progress read","read":"30 % in the 2026-06-01 USDA NASS Crop Progress; -12.0 points versus last year. This is an official supply, feed, dairy, or pasture signal to read before treating local prices as isolated.","producerAction":"Move this NASS read into the feed plan now: count forage days, price hay and grain, then compare selling lighter cattle against buying another gain period.","sourceId":"usda-nass","sourceName":"USDA NASS QuickStats and ESMIS reports","sourceUrl":"https://esmis.nal.usda.gov/","date":"2026-06-06T11:33:23.605Z","confidence":91,"severity":"high","evidenceKey":"impact:usda-nass-crop-progress-pasture-good-excellent-2026-06-01-official-report-impact","score":5809},{"id":"impact:usda-nass-crop-progress-pasture-poor-very-poor-2026-06-01-official-report-impact","kind":"impact","kindLabel":"Driver impact","title":"U.S. pasture poor/very poor changes the official crop progress read","read":"42 % in the 2026-06-01 USDA NASS Crop Progress; 42.0% of selected-state pasture is poor or very poor. This is an official supply, feed, dairy, or pasture signal to read before treating local prices as isolated.","producerAction":"Move this NASS read into the feed plan now: count forage days, price hay and grain, then compare selling lighter cattle against buying another gain period.","sourceId":"usda-nass","sourceName":"USDA NASS QuickStats and ESMIS reports","sourceUrl":"https://esmis.nal.usda.gov/","date":"2026-06-06T11:33:23.605Z","confidence":91,"severity":"high","evidenceKey":"impact:usda-nass-crop-progress-pasture-poor-very-poor-2026-06-01-official-report-impact","score":5809}],"pastToFuture":[{"id":"pasture-stress-to-sale-runs","driver":"Pasture stress becomes sale pressure","lookbackWindow":"30-120 days","forwardWindow":"2-16 weeks","lag":"Pasture stress usually hits feed buying first, sale runs second, and replacement prices last.","leadingSignals":["Soil moisture drops below seasonal median","Pasture condition ratings deteriorate","Hay and supplement quotes firm before auction volume rises"],"forwardEffects":["More calves and cull cows move earlier","Replacement animals face discount risk in dry regions","Feed cost can erase the value of extra gain"],"producerDecision":"Move from calendar-based selling to forage-days and feed-margin selling.","confidence":86},{"id":"crop-balance-to-feed-margin","driver":"Crop balance becomes feed margin","lookbackWindow":"90 days to 5 years","forwardWindow":"1-18 months","lag":"Acreage and crop condition lead production; production leads feed price; feed price leads cattle and milk margins.","leadingSignals":["Acreage, crop progress, and soil moisture shift together","Balance-sheet revisions tighten ending stocks","Rail, freight, or port pressure widens local basis"],"forwardEffects":["Backgrounding and finishing margins compress","Dairy ration spend rises before cull flow changes","Crop producers may gain price opportunity while livestock producers face cost risk"],"producerDecision":"Use the crop balance to decide feed coverage, hay buying, grain pricing, and stocking rate.","confidence":84},{"id":"health-alert-to-market-access","driver":"Animal-health alerts become market-access friction","lookbackWindow":"Same day to 5 years","forwardWindow":"Same day to 12 months","lag":"A disease notice can affect movement immediately, then trade access and buyer confidence over weeks or months.","leadingSignals":["Official disease notice or surveillance update","Movement guidance, testing rules, or border language changes","Buyer discounts appear before broad price averages adjust"],"forwardEffects":["Movement costs and delays rise","Export eligibility or buyer confidence can narrow","Biosecurity spend becomes part of the margin calculation"],"producerDecision":"Check health status before moving cattle, buying replacements, or signing export-sensitive commitments.","confidence":83},{"id":"export-pull-to-local-basis","driver":"Export pull changes local basis","lookbackWindow":"4-52 weeks","forwardWindow":"1-12 weeks","lag":"Export sales lead shipments; shipments lead customs totals; customs totals confirm structural demand.","leadingSignals":["Weekly sales or attaché reports change before monthly trade files","Destination concentration rises","Currency makes local supply cheaper or dearer to importers"],"forwardEffects":["Processor bids widen or narrow by export access","Feed and crop basis shifts around ports and corridors","Sanitary or border events can erase the signal quickly"],"producerDecision":"Price cattle and crops with local basis plus destination exposure, not only the national headline.","confidence":82},{"id":"heat-load-to-milk-gain","driver":"Heat load becomes milk and weight-gain drag","lookbackWindow":"7-90 days","forwardWindow":"Same day to 12 weeks","lag":"Heat and humidity affect intake first, then milk, weight gain, conception, and sale timing.","leadingSignals":["Temperature-humidity pressure rises for multiple days","Water demand and night cooling fail to reset","Feed intake falls before production reports update"],"forwardEffects":["Milk output and components weaken","Finishing cattle gain less efficiently","Water, shade, and ration timing become margin controls"],"producerDecision":"Move heat mitigation and ration timing ahead of sale-weight or milk-output assumptions.","confidence":82}],"scenarioTests":[{"id":"heat-stress-milk-loss","name":"Heat stress cuts milk and gain","sector":"dairy","defaultIntensity":44,"description":"Temperature, humidity, and water stress reduce milk output, weight gain, conception, and pasture recovery.","producerDecision":"Prioritize shade, water, ration timing, and sale weights before the heat signal shows up in production reports.","outputs":[{"label":"Milk-yield loss","baseline":12,"unit":"%","perIntensityPoint":0.44,"direction":"higher-is-risk"},{"label":"Weight-gain drag","baseline":14,"unit":"%","perIntensityPoint":0.39,"direction":"higher-is-risk"},{"label":"Cooling and water urgency","baseline":28,"unit":"%","perIntensityPoint":0.58,"direction":"higher-is-risk"}]},{"id":"drought-shock","name":"Drought tightens forage","sector":"feed","defaultIntensity":42,"description":"Pasture weakens, hay gets tighter, and more cows or calves can move earlier than planned.","producerDecision":"Check forage inventory, water, and the value of selling lighter cattle before everyone else is forced to.","outputs":[{"label":"Hay cost risk","baseline":28,"unit":"%","perIntensityPoint":0.72,"direction":"higher-is-risk"},{"label":"Early sale pressure","baseline":22,"unit":"%","perIntensityPoint":0.58,"direction":"higher-is-risk"},{"label":"Pasture carrying days","baseline":64,"unit":"days","perIntensityPoint":-0.42,"direction":"lower-is-risk"}]},{"id":"geopolitical-shipping-shock","name":"War and shipping disruption","sector":"feed","defaultIntensity":37,"description":"Conflict, sanctions, canal disruption, or route risk changes grain, fertilizer, fuel, freight, and protein trade costs.","producerDecision":"Before holding cattle for more gain, check whether war or shipping risk has changed delivered feed, fertilizer, freight, or buyer access.","outputs":[{"label":"Delivered-input risk","baseline":24,"unit":"%","perIntensityPoint":0.69,"direction":"higher-is-risk"},{"label":"Basis and freight drag","baseline":21,"unit":"%","perIntensityPoint":0.64,"direction":"higher-is-risk"},{"label":"Local substitution value","baseline":30,"unit":"%","perIntensityPoint":0.35,"direction":"higher-is-opportunity"}]},{"id":"port-freight-shock","name":"Port and freight shock","sector":"feed","defaultIntensity":36,"description":"Port congestion, fuel, border friction, or shipping disruption widens the gap between farm price and destination price.","producerDecision":"Before moving cattle, hay, grain, milk, or inputs, test whether freight has already eaten the price signal.","outputs":[{"label":"Delivered-feed risk","baseline":26,"unit":"%","perIntensityPoint":0.73,"direction":"higher-is-risk"},{"label":"Export basis drag","baseline":22,"unit":"%","perIntensityPoint":0.59,"direction":"higher-is-risk"},{"label":"Local arbitrage window","baseline":35,"unit":"%","perIntensityPoint":0.32,"direction":"higher-is-opportunity"}]},{"id":"feed-cost-spike","name":"Feed cost spike","sector":"feed","defaultIntensity":35,"description":"Corn, hay, soybean meal, fuel, or freight costs rise faster than cattle value.","producerDecision":"Recalculate whether the next gain period is still worth feeding.","outputs":[{"label":"Feed breakeven pressure","baseline":34,"unit":"%","perIntensityPoint":0.66,"direction":"higher-is-risk"},{"label":"Margin cushion","baseline":24,"unit":"%","perIntensityPoint":-0.45,"direction":"lower-is-risk"},{"label":"Freight sensitivity","baseline":18,"unit":"%","perIntensityPoint":0.31,"direction":"higher-is-risk"}]}],"localBoards":[{"id":"united-states-feed-belt","name":"United States feed and crop belt","country":"United States","kind":"Feed belt","risk":70,"opportunity":84,"estimatedSeries":546,"decisionUse":"Use feed grain, hay, protein meal, crop progress, fuel, and credit signals before buying feed or holding weight longer.","watchSignal":"Delivered feed basis, crop yield risk, freight, diesel, and financing pressure."},{"id":"united-states-dairy-belt","name":"United States dairy and processor belt","country":"United States","kind":"Dairy belt","risk":70,"opportunity":83,"estimatedSeries":730,"decisionUse":"Use milk price, solids, feed cost, cull-cow flow, and processor demand before changing ration, culling, or replacement plans.","watchSignal":"Milk-feed spread, processor pull, dairy-beef supply, and replacement economics."},{"id":"united-states-pasture-basin","name":"United States pasture and water basin","country":"United States","kind":"Pasture basin","risk":69,"opportunity":83,"estimatedSeries":709,"decisionUse":"Use rainfall, heat, water, pasture, and forage signals before changing stocking rate, sale pressure, or supplement buying.","watchSignal":"Pasture recovery, water stress, heat load, hay availability, and forced-sale risk."},{"id":"united-states-trade-corridor","name":"United States trade and health corridor","country":"United States","kind":"Trade corridor","risk":68,"opportunity":84,"estimatedSeries":627,"decisionUse":"Use export access, border movement, disease notices, freight, currency, and policy signals before committing volume.","watchSignal":"Destination concentration, sanitary access, port flow, border friction, and currency translation."},{"id":"canada-feed-belt","name":"Canada feed and crop belt","country":"Canada","kind":"Feed belt","risk":67,"opportunity":84,"estimatedSeries":546,"decisionUse":"Use feed grain, hay, protein meal, crop progress, fuel, and credit signals before buying feed or holding weight longer.","watchSignal":"Delivered feed basis, crop yield risk, freight, diesel, and financing pressure."}],"coverageGaps":[{"id":"canada-beef-dairy-trade","country":"Canada","layer":"Beef, dairy, live animal, grain, and feed trade flows","status":"api-ready","category":"Trade","estimatedSeries":120,"producerRisk":"Export pull, import pressure, destination risk, and local basis.","nextCheck":"Maps customs movement into buyer-access and feed-cost signals."},{"id":"mexico-beef-dairy-trade","country":"Mexico","layer":"Beef, dairy, live animal, grain, and feed trade flows","status":"api-ready","category":"Trade","estimatedSeries":120,"producerRisk":"Export pull, import pressure, destination risk, and local basis.","nextCheck":"Maps customs movement into buyer-access and feed-cost signals."},{"id":"united-states-beef-dairy-trade","country":"United States","layer":"Beef, dairy, live animal, grain, and feed trade flows","status":"api-ready","category":"Trade","estimatedSeries":120,"producerRisk":"Export pull, import pressure, destination risk, and local basis.","nextCheck":"Maps customs movement into buyer-access and feed-cost signals."},{"id":"canada-crop-progress-production","country":"Canada","layer":"Crop area, progress, yield, production, stocks, and balance sheets","status":"api-ready","category":"Crops","estimatedSeries":110,"producerRisk":"Feed supply, crop margins, ration substitution, and stocking rate.","nextCheck":"Connects crop balance to feed margin and cattle timing."},{"id":"mexico-crop-progress-production","country":"Mexico","layer":"Crop area, progress, yield, production, stocks, and balance sheets","status":"api-ready","category":"Crops","estimatedSeries":110,"producerRisk":"Feed supply, crop margins, ration substitution, and stocking rate.","nextCheck":"Connects crop balance to feed margin and cattle timing."},{"id":"united-states-crop-progress-production","country":"United States","layer":"Crop area, progress, yield, production, stocks, and balance sheets","status":"api-ready","category":"Crops","estimatedSeries":110,"producerRisk":"Feed supply, crop margins, ration substitution, and stocking rate.","nextCheck":"Connects crop balance to feed margin and cattle timing."},{"id":"canada-herd-inventory","country":"Canada","layer":"Bovine herd, cow inventory, calf crop, and replacement numbers","status":"api-ready","category":"Inventory","estimatedSeries":80,"producerRisk":"Herd rebuild, replacement value, long-cycle supply, and basis.","nextCheck":"Links structural supply to future cattle availability."},{"id":"mexico-herd-inventory","country":"Mexico","layer":"Bovine herd, cow inventory, calf crop, and replacement numbers","status":"api-ready","category":"Inventory","estimatedSeries":80,"producerRisk":"Herd rebuild, replacement value, long-cycle supply, and basis.","nextCheck":"Links structural supply to future cattle availability."}],"decisionChain":[{"id":"dairy-cull-margin:question","label":"Question","title":"Is milk margin changing ration spend, replacement appetite, or dairy-beef supply?","detail":"Milk, feed, energy, and cull-cow values feed directly into dairy and beef supply."},{"id":"dairy-cull-margin:signal","label":"Current signal","title":"North America Global Brent crude oil price is moving the margin stack","detail":"107.5 $/bbl in the latest World Bank commodity sheet. Read this against pasture input, fertilizer, diesel, freight, and working capital."},{"id":"dairy-cull-margin:effect","label":"Market effect","title":"Sale timing, weight class target, and hedge urgency","detail":"Sell now, add pounds, or price-protect cattle before bids soften."},{"id":"dairy-cull-margin:history","label":"Past pattern","title":"Pasture stress becomes sale pressure","detail":"30-120 days -> 2-16 weeks: Pasture stress usually hits feed buying first, sale runs second, and replacement prices last."},{"id":"dairy-cull-margin:scenario","label":"Scenario","title":"Heat stress cuts milk and gain","detail":"Temperature, humidity, and water stress reduce milk output, weight gain, conception, and pasture recovery."},{"id":"dairy-cull-margin:action","label":"Action","title":"United States feed and crop belt, United States","detail":"Use feed grain, hay, protein meal, crop progress, fuel, and credit signals before buying feed or holding weight longer."}],"citationText":"Dairy margin and cull flow for north-america is watch with 312 current signals, 11 historical patterns, and 8 scenarios."},"rows":[{"id":"decision-readiness:north-america:dairy-cull-margin","lensId":"dairy-cull-margin","label":"Dairy margin and cull flow","question":"Is milk margin changing ration spend, replacement appetite, or dairy-beef supply?","headline":"Milk, feed, energy, and cull-cow values feed directly into dairy and beef supply.","producerAction":"Reprice ration, culling, replacement, and dairy-beef timing together.","refreshCadence":"Weekly to monthly","sectors":["dairy","beef","feed"],"readinessStatus":"watch","readinessLabel":"Watch","readinessScore":77,"summary":{"evidenceItems":312,"liveObservations":55,"driverImpacts":117,"marketEvents":84,"temporalSignals":2,"causalPaths":54,"sourceFamilies":34,"liveSourceFamilies":25,"mappedMarketFeeds":93,"estimatedPublicSeries":5565,"sourceGraphEdges":36,"historicalDrivers":11,"scenarios":8,"localMarkets":15},"currentSignals":[{"id":"impact:world-bank-pink-sheet-crude-oil-north-america-commodity-margin-impact","kind":"impact","kindLabel":"Driver impact","title":"North America Global Brent crude oil price is moving the margin stack","read":"107.5 $/bbl in the latest World Bank commodity sheet. Read this against pasture input, fertilizer, diesel, freight, and working capital.","producerAction":"Reprice the next gain period, forage plan, and delivered-feed bill before buying inputs or holding cattle longer.","sourceId":"world-bank-pink-sheet","sourceName":"World Bank commodity prices","sourceUrl":"https://www.worldbank.org/en/research/commodity-markets","date":"2026-06-06T11:33:23.605Z","confidence":84,"severity":"high","evidenceKey":"impact:world-bank-pink-sheet-crude-oil-north-america-commodity-margin-impact","score":6573},{"id":"impact:world-bank-pink-sheet-dap-north-america-commodity-margin-impact","kind":"impact","kindLabel":"Driver impact","title":"North America Global DAP fertilizer price is moving the margin stack","read":"770 $/mt in the latest World Bank commodity sheet. Read this against pasture input, fertilizer, diesel, freight, and working capital.","producerAction":"Reprice the next gain period, forage plan, and delivered-feed bill before buying inputs or holding cattle longer.","sourceId":"world-bank-pink-sheet","sourceName":"World Bank commodity prices","sourceUrl":"https://www.worldbank.org/en/research/commodity-markets","date":"2026-06-06T11:33:23.605Z","confidence":84,"severity":"high","evidenceKey":"impact:world-bank-pink-sheet-dap-north-america-commodity-margin-impact","score":6573},{"id":"impact:world-bank-pink-sheet-urea-north-america-commodity-margin-impact","kind":"impact","kindLabel":"Driver impact","title":"North America Global urea fertilizer price is moving the margin stack","read":"771 $/mt in the latest World Bank commodity sheet. Read this against pasture input, fertilizer, diesel, freight, and working capital.","producerAction":"Reprice the next gain period, forage plan, and delivered-feed bill before buying inputs or holding cattle longer.","sourceId":"world-bank-pink-sheet","sourceName":"World Bank commodity prices","sourceUrl":"https://www.worldbank.org/en/research/commodity-markets","date":"2026-06-06T11:33:23.605Z","confidence":84,"severity":"high","evidenceKey":"impact:world-bank-pink-sheet-urea-north-america-commodity-margin-impact","score":6573},{"id":"impact:world-bank-pink-sheet-beef-north-america-commodity-margin-impact","kind":"impact","kindLabel":"Driver impact","title":"North America Global beef price is moving the margin stack","read":"7.95 $/kg in the latest World Bank commodity sheet. Read this against export demand, cull values, and local cattle basis.","producerAction":"Compare global beef with local bids before deciding whether weak local price is local supply, export demand, or currency.","sourceId":"world-bank-pink-sheet","sourceName":"World Bank commodity prices","sourceUrl":"https://www.worldbank.org/en/research/commodity-markets","date":"2026-06-06T11:33:23.605Z","confidence":78,"severity":"high","evidenceKey":"impact:world-bank-pink-sheet-beef-north-america-commodity-margin-impact","score":6555},{"id":"impact:world-bank-pink-sheet-maize-north-america-commodity-margin-impact","kind":"impact","kindLabel":"Driver impact","title":"North America Global maize price is moving the margin stack","read":"216 $/mt in the latest World Bank commodity sheet. Read this against ration cost, hay substitution, and feeder bids.","producerAction":"Reprice the next gain period, forage plan, and delivered-feed bill before buying inputs or holding cattle longer.","sourceId":"world-bank-pink-sheet","sourceName":"World Bank commodity prices","sourceUrl":"https://www.worldbank.org/en/research/commodity-markets","date":"2026-06-06T11:33:23.605Z","confidence":78,"severity":"high","evidenceKey":"impact:world-bank-pink-sheet-maize-north-america-commodity-margin-impact","score":6525},{"id":"impact:world-bank-pink-sheet-soybean-meal-north-america-commodity-margin-impact","kind":"impact","kindLabel":"Driver impact","title":"North America Global soybean meal price is moving the margin stack","read":"421 $/mt in the latest World Bank commodity sheet. Read this against ration cost, hay substitution, and feeder bids.","producerAction":"Reprice the next gain period, forage plan, and delivered-feed bill before buying inputs or holding cattle longer.","sourceId":"world-bank-pink-sheet","sourceName":"World Bank commodity prices","sourceUrl":"https://www.worldbank.org/en/research/commodity-markets","date":"2026-06-06T11:33:23.605Z","confidence":78,"severity":"high","evidenceKey":"impact:world-bank-pink-sheet-soybean-meal-north-america-commodity-margin-impact","score":6525},{"id":"impact:usda-nass-crop-progress-pasture-good-excellent-2026-06-01-official-report-impact","kind":"impact","kindLabel":"Driver impact","title":"U.S. pasture good/excellent changes the official crop progress read","read":"30 % in the 2026-06-01 USDA NASS Crop Progress; -12.0 points versus last year. This is an official supply, feed, dairy, or pasture signal to read before treating local prices as isolated.","producerAction":"Move this NASS read into the feed plan now: count forage days, price hay and grain, then compare selling lighter cattle against buying another gain period.","sourceId":"usda-nass","sourceName":"USDA NASS QuickStats and ESMIS reports","sourceUrl":"https://esmis.nal.usda.gov/","date":"2026-06-06T11:33:23.605Z","confidence":91,"severity":"high","evidenceKey":"impact:usda-nass-crop-progress-pasture-good-excellent-2026-06-01-official-report-impact","score":5809},{"id":"impact:usda-nass-crop-progress-pasture-poor-very-poor-2026-06-01-official-report-impact","kind":"impact","kindLabel":"Driver impact","title":"U.S. pasture poor/very poor changes the official crop progress read","read":"42 % in the 2026-06-01 USDA NASS Crop Progress; 42.0% of selected-state pasture is poor or very poor. This is an official supply, feed, dairy, or pasture signal to read before treating local prices as isolated.","producerAction":"Move this NASS read into the feed plan now: count forage days, price hay and grain, then compare selling lighter cattle against buying another gain period.","sourceId":"usda-nass","sourceName":"USDA NASS QuickStats and ESMIS reports","sourceUrl":"https://esmis.nal.usda.gov/","date":"2026-06-06T11:33:23.605Z","confidence":91,"severity":"high","evidenceKey":"impact:usda-nass-crop-progress-pasture-poor-very-poor-2026-06-01-official-report-impact","score":5809}],"pastToFuture":[{"id":"pasture-stress-to-sale-runs","driver":"Pasture stress becomes sale pressure","lookbackWindow":"30-120 days","forwardWindow":"2-16 weeks","lag":"Pasture stress usually hits feed buying first, sale runs second, and replacement prices last.","leadingSignals":["Soil moisture drops below seasonal median","Pasture condition ratings deteriorate","Hay and supplement quotes firm before auction volume rises"],"forwardEffects":["More calves and cull cows move earlier","Replacement animals face discount risk in dry regions","Feed cost can erase the value of extra gain"],"producerDecision":"Move from calendar-based selling to forage-days and feed-margin selling.","confidence":86},{"id":"crop-balance-to-feed-margin","driver":"Crop balance becomes feed margin","lookbackWindow":"90 days to 5 years","forwardWindow":"1-18 months","lag":"Acreage and crop condition lead production; production leads feed price; feed price leads cattle and milk margins.","leadingSignals":["Acreage, crop progress, and soil moisture shift together","Balance-sheet revisions tighten ending stocks","Rail, freight, or port pressure widens local basis"],"forwardEffects":["Backgrounding and finishing margins compress","Dairy ration spend rises before cull flow changes","Crop producers may gain price opportunity while livestock producers face cost risk"],"producerDecision":"Use the crop balance to decide feed coverage, hay buying, grain pricing, and stocking rate.","confidence":84},{"id":"health-alert-to-market-access","driver":"Animal-health alerts become market-access friction","lookbackWindow":"Same day to 5 years","forwardWindow":"Same day to 12 months","lag":"A disease notice can affect movement immediately, then trade access and buyer confidence over weeks or months.","leadingSignals":["Official disease notice or surveillance update","Movement guidance, testing rules, or border language changes","Buyer discounts appear before broad price averages adjust"],"forwardEffects":["Movement costs and delays rise","Export eligibility or buyer confidence can narrow","Biosecurity spend becomes part of the margin calculation"],"producerDecision":"Check health status before moving cattle, buying replacements, or signing export-sensitive commitments.","confidence":83},{"id":"export-pull-to-local-basis","driver":"Export pull changes local basis","lookbackWindow":"4-52 weeks","forwardWindow":"1-12 weeks","lag":"Export sales lead shipments; shipments lead customs totals; customs totals confirm structural demand.","leadingSignals":["Weekly sales or attaché reports change before monthly trade files","Destination concentration rises","Currency makes local supply cheaper or dearer to importers"],"forwardEffects":["Processor bids widen or narrow by export access","Feed and crop basis shifts around ports and corridors","Sanitary or border events can erase the signal quickly"],"producerDecision":"Price cattle and crops with local basis plus destination exposure, not only the national headline.","confidence":82},{"id":"heat-load-to-milk-gain","driver":"Heat load becomes milk and weight-gain drag","lookbackWindow":"7-90 days","forwardWindow":"Same day to 12 weeks","lag":"Heat and humidity affect intake first, then milk, weight gain, conception, and sale timing.","leadingSignals":["Temperature-humidity pressure rises for multiple days","Water demand and night cooling fail to reset","Feed intake falls before production reports update"],"forwardEffects":["Milk output and components weaken","Finishing cattle gain less efficiently","Water, shade, and ration timing become margin controls"],"producerDecision":"Move heat mitigation and ration timing ahead of sale-weight or milk-output assumptions.","confidence":82}],"scenarioTests":[{"id":"heat-stress-milk-loss","name":"Heat stress cuts milk and gain","sector":"dairy","defaultIntensity":44,"description":"Temperature, humidity, and water stress reduce milk output, weight gain, conception, and pasture recovery.","producerDecision":"Prioritize shade, water, ration timing, and sale weights before the heat signal shows up in production reports.","outputs":[{"label":"Milk-yield loss","baseline":12,"unit":"%","perIntensityPoint":0.44,"direction":"higher-is-risk"},{"label":"Weight-gain drag","baseline":14,"unit":"%","perIntensityPoint":0.39,"direction":"higher-is-risk"},{"label":"Cooling and water urgency","baseline":28,"unit":"%","perIntensityPoint":0.58,"direction":"higher-is-risk"}]},{"id":"drought-shock","name":"Drought tightens forage","sector":"feed","defaultIntensity":42,"description":"Pasture weakens, hay gets tighter, and more cows or calves can move earlier than planned.","producerDecision":"Check forage inventory, water, and the value of selling lighter cattle before everyone else is forced to.","outputs":[{"label":"Hay cost risk","baseline":28,"unit":"%","perIntensityPoint":0.72,"direction":"higher-is-risk"},{"label":"Early sale pressure","baseline":22,"unit":"%","perIntensityPoint":0.58,"direction":"higher-is-risk"},{"label":"Pasture carrying days","baseline":64,"unit":"days","perIntensityPoint":-0.42,"direction":"lower-is-risk"}]},{"id":"geopolitical-shipping-shock","name":"War and shipping disruption","sector":"feed","defaultIntensity":37,"description":"Conflict, sanctions, canal disruption, or route risk changes grain, fertilizer, fuel, freight, and protein trade costs.","producerDecision":"Before holding cattle for more gain, check whether war or shipping risk has changed delivered feed, fertilizer, freight, or buyer access.","outputs":[{"label":"Delivered-input risk","baseline":24,"unit":"%","perIntensityPoint":0.69,"direction":"higher-is-risk"},{"label":"Basis and freight drag","baseline":21,"unit":"%","perIntensityPoint":0.64,"direction":"higher-is-risk"},{"label":"Local substitution value","baseline":30,"unit":"%","perIntensityPoint":0.35,"direction":"higher-is-opportunity"}]},{"id":"port-freight-shock","name":"Port and freight shock","sector":"feed","defaultIntensity":36,"description":"Port congestion, fuel, border friction, or shipping disruption widens the gap between farm price and destination price.","producerDecision":"Before moving cattle, hay, grain, milk, or inputs, test whether freight has already eaten the price signal.","outputs":[{"label":"Delivered-feed risk","baseline":26,"unit":"%","perIntensityPoint":0.73,"direction":"higher-is-risk"},{"label":"Export basis drag","baseline":22,"unit":"%","perIntensityPoint":0.59,"direction":"higher-is-risk"},{"label":"Local arbitrage window","baseline":35,"unit":"%","perIntensityPoint":0.32,"direction":"higher-is-opportunity"}]},{"id":"feed-cost-spike","name":"Feed cost spike","sector":"feed","defaultIntensity":35,"description":"Corn, hay, soybean meal, fuel, or freight costs rise faster than cattle value.","producerDecision":"Recalculate whether the next gain period is still worth feeding.","outputs":[{"label":"Feed breakeven pressure","baseline":34,"unit":"%","perIntensityPoint":0.66,"direction":"higher-is-risk"},{"label":"Margin cushion","baseline":24,"unit":"%","perIntensityPoint":-0.45,"direction":"lower-is-risk"},{"label":"Freight sensitivity","baseline":18,"unit":"%","perIntensityPoint":0.31,"direction":"higher-is-risk"}]}],"localBoards":[{"id":"united-states-feed-belt","name":"United States feed and crop belt","country":"United States","kind":"Feed belt","risk":70,"opportunity":84,"estimatedSeries":546,"decisionUse":"Use feed grain, hay, protein meal, crop progress, fuel, and credit signals before buying feed or holding weight longer.","watchSignal":"Delivered feed basis, crop yield risk, freight, diesel, and financing pressure."},{"id":"united-states-dairy-belt","name":"United States dairy and processor belt","country":"United States","kind":"Dairy belt","risk":70,"opportunity":83,"estimatedSeries":730,"decisionUse":"Use milk price, solids, feed cost, cull-cow flow, and processor demand before changing ration, culling, or replacement plans.","watchSignal":"Milk-feed spread, processor pull, dairy-beef supply, and replacement economics."},{"id":"united-states-pasture-basin","name":"United States pasture and water basin","country":"United States","kind":"Pasture basin","risk":69,"opportunity":83,"estimatedSeries":709,"decisionUse":"Use rainfall, heat, water, pasture, and forage signals before changing stocking rate, sale pressure, or supplement buying.","watchSignal":"Pasture recovery, water stress, heat load, hay availability, and forced-sale risk."},{"id":"united-states-trade-corridor","name":"United States trade and health corridor","country":"United States","kind":"Trade corridor","risk":68,"opportunity":84,"estimatedSeries":627,"decisionUse":"Use export access, border movement, disease notices, freight, currency, and policy signals before committing volume.","watchSignal":"Destination concentration, sanitary access, port flow, border friction, and currency translation."},{"id":"canada-feed-belt","name":"Canada feed and crop belt","country":"Canada","kind":"Feed belt","risk":67,"opportunity":84,"estimatedSeries":546,"decisionUse":"Use feed grain, hay, protein meal, crop progress, fuel, and credit signals before buying feed or holding weight longer.","watchSignal":"Delivered feed basis, crop yield risk, freight, diesel, and financing pressure."}],"coverageGaps":[{"id":"canada-beef-dairy-trade","country":"Canada","layer":"Beef, dairy, live animal, grain, and feed trade flows","status":"api-ready","category":"Trade","estimatedSeries":120,"producerRisk":"Export pull, import pressure, destination risk, and local basis.","nextCheck":"Maps customs movement into buyer-access and feed-cost signals."},{"id":"mexico-beef-dairy-trade","country":"Mexico","layer":"Beef, dairy, live animal, grain, and feed trade flows","status":"api-ready","category":"Trade","estimatedSeries":120,"producerRisk":"Export pull, import pressure, destination risk, and local basis.","nextCheck":"Maps customs movement into buyer-access and feed-cost signals."},{"id":"united-states-beef-dairy-trade","country":"United States","layer":"Beef, dairy, live animal, grain, and feed trade flows","status":"api-ready","category":"Trade","estimatedSeries":120,"producerRisk":"Export pull, import pressure, destination risk, and local basis.","nextCheck":"Maps customs movement into buyer-access and feed-cost signals."},{"id":"canada-crop-progress-production","country":"Canada","layer":"Crop area, progress, yield, production, stocks, and balance sheets","status":"api-ready","category":"Crops","estimatedSeries":110,"producerRisk":"Feed supply, crop margins, ration substitution, and stocking rate.","nextCheck":"Connects crop balance to feed margin and cattle timing."},{"id":"mexico-crop-progress-production","country":"Mexico","layer":"Crop area, progress, yield, production, stocks, and balance sheets","status":"api-ready","category":"Crops","estimatedSeries":110,"producerRisk":"Feed supply, crop margins, ration substitution, and stocking rate.","nextCheck":"Connects crop balance to feed margin and cattle timing."},{"id":"united-states-crop-progress-production","country":"United States","layer":"Crop area, progress, yield, production, stocks, and balance sheets","status":"api-ready","category":"Crops","estimatedSeries":110,"producerRisk":"Feed supply, crop margins, ration substitution, and stocking rate.","nextCheck":"Connects crop balance to feed margin and cattle timing."},{"id":"canada-herd-inventory","country":"Canada","layer":"Bovine herd, cow inventory, calf crop, and replacement numbers","status":"api-ready","category":"Inventory","estimatedSeries":80,"producerRisk":"Herd rebuild, replacement value, long-cycle supply, and basis.","nextCheck":"Links structural supply to future cattle availability."},{"id":"mexico-herd-inventory","country":"Mexico","layer":"Bovine herd, cow inventory, calf crop, and replacement numbers","status":"api-ready","category":"Inventory","estimatedSeries":80,"producerRisk":"Herd rebuild, replacement value, long-cycle supply, and basis.","nextCheck":"Links structural supply to future cattle availability."}],"decisionChain":[{"id":"dairy-cull-margin:question","label":"Question","title":"Is milk margin changing ration spend, replacement appetite, or dairy-beef supply?","detail":"Milk, feed, energy, and cull-cow values feed directly into dairy and beef supply."},{"id":"dairy-cull-margin:signal","label":"Current signal","title":"North America Global Brent crude oil price is moving the margin stack","detail":"107.5 $/bbl in the latest World Bank commodity sheet. Read this against pasture input, fertilizer, diesel, freight, and working capital."},{"id":"dairy-cull-margin:effect","label":"Market effect","title":"Sale timing, weight class target, and hedge urgency","detail":"Sell now, add pounds, or price-protect cattle before bids soften."},{"id":"dairy-cull-margin:history","label":"Past pattern","title":"Pasture stress becomes sale pressure","detail":"30-120 days -> 2-16 weeks: Pasture stress usually hits feed buying first, sale runs second, and replacement prices last."},{"id":"dairy-cull-margin:scenario","label":"Scenario","title":"Heat stress cuts milk and gain","detail":"Temperature, humidity, and water stress reduce milk output, weight gain, conception, and pasture recovery."},{"id":"dairy-cull-margin:action","label":"Action","title":"United States feed and crop belt, United States","detail":"Use feed grain, hay, protein meal, crop progress, fuel, and credit signals before buying feed or holding weight longer."}],"citationText":"Dairy margin and cull flow for north-america is watch with 312 current signals, 11 historical patterns, and 8 scenarios."},{"id":"decision-readiness:north-america:feed-crop-margin","lensId":"feed-crop-margin","label":"Feed and crop margin","question":"Are corn, soy meal, hay, fertilizer, diesel, or crop balance changing the value of weight gain?","headline":"Crop balance and input costs often move cattle margins before cattle headlines do.","producerAction":"Reprice feed coverage and ration strategy before deciding to add more weight.","refreshCadence":"Daily to monthly","sectors":["feed","crops","beef","dairy"],"readinessStatus":"watch","readinessLabel":"Watch","readinessScore":77,"summary":{"evidenceItems":287,"liveObservations":47,"driverImpacts":102,"marketEvents":82,"temporalSignals":2,"causalPaths":54,"sourceFamilies":34,"liveSourceFamilies":25,"mappedMarketFeeds":87,"estimatedPublicSeries":5355,"sourceGraphEdges":36,"historicalDrivers":11,"scenarios":12,"localMarkets":15},"currentSignals":[{"id":"impact:usda-wasde-us-corn-stocks-monthly-balance-impact","kind":"impact","kindLabel":"Driver impact","title":"U.S. corn ending stocks changes the monthly feed and supply read","read":"1,957 million bushels in the May 2026 WASDE for 2026/27; -8.6% versus 2025/26. This is the official monthly bridge from crop/feed balance to cattle, milk, and sale timing.","producerAction":"Put the WASDE revision beside local corn, meal, hay, freight, and weather before buying feed, buying feeders, or holding cattle for more gain.","sourceId":"usda-wasde","sourceName":"USDA WASDE historical data","sourceUrl":"https://www.usda.gov/historical-wasde-report-data","date":"2026-06-06T11:33:23.605Z","confidence":90,"severity":"high","evidenceKey":"impact:usda-wasde-us-corn-stocks-monthly-balance-impact","score":6621},{"id":"impact:usda-wasde-us-corn-price-monthly-balance-impact","kind":"impact","kindLabel":"Driver impact","title":"U.S. corn farm price changes the monthly feed and supply read","read":"4 $/bu in the May 2026 WASDE for 2026/27; +6.0% versus 2025/26. This is the official monthly bridge from crop/feed balance to cattle, milk, and sale timing.","producerAction":"Put the WASDE revision beside local corn, meal, hay, freight, and weather before buying feed, buying feeders, or holding cattle for more gain.","sourceId":"usda-wasde","sourceName":"USDA WASDE historical data","sourceUrl":"https://www.usda.gov/historical-wasde-report-data","date":"2026-06-06T11:33:23.605Z","confidence":90,"severity":"high","evidenceKey":"impact:usda-wasde-us-corn-price-monthly-balance-impact","score":6621},{"id":"impact:usda-wasde-us-sorghum-feed-monthly-balance-impact","kind":"impact","kindLabel":"Driver impact","title":"U.S. sorghum feed and residual changes the monthly feed and supply read","read":"70 million bushels in the May 2026 WASDE for 2026/27; -30.0% versus 2025/26. This is the official monthly bridge from crop/feed balance to cattle, milk, and sale timing.","producerAction":"Put the WASDE revision beside local corn, meal, hay, freight, and weather before buying feed, buying feeders, or holding cattle for more gain.","sourceId":"usda-wasde","sourceName":"USDA WASDE historical data","sourceUrl":"https://www.usda.gov/historical-wasde-report-data","date":"2026-06-06T11:33:23.605Z","confidence":90,"severity":"high","evidenceKey":"impact:usda-wasde-us-sorghum-feed-monthly-balance-impact","score":6621},{"id":"impact:usda-wasde-mexico-corn-stocks-monthly-balance-impact","kind":"impact","kindLabel":"Driver impact","title":"Mexico corn ending stocks changes the monthly feed and supply read","read":"4.9 million tonnes in the May 2026 WASDE for 2026/27; -20.0% versus 2025/26. This is the official monthly bridge from crop/feed balance to cattle, milk, and sale timing.","producerAction":"Put the WASDE revision beside local corn, meal, hay, freight, and weather before buying feed, buying feeders, or holding cattle for more gain.","sourceId":"usda-wasde","sourceName":"USDA WASDE historical data","sourceUrl":"https://www.usda.gov/historical-wasde-report-data","date":"2026-06-06T11:33:23.605Z","confidence":90,"severity":"high","evidenceKey":"impact:usda-wasde-mexico-corn-stocks-monthly-balance-impact","score":6621},{"id":"impact:usda-wasde-mexico-soymeal-stocks-monthly-balance-impact","kind":"impact","kindLabel":"Driver impact","title":"Mexico soybean meal ending stocks changes the monthly feed and supply read","read":"0.4 million tonnes in the May 2026 WASDE for 2026/27; +12.1% versus 2025/26. This is the official monthly bridge from crop/feed balance to cattle, milk, and sale timing.","producerAction":"Put the WASDE revision beside local corn, meal, hay, freight, and weather before buying feed, buying feeders, or holding cattle for more gain.","sourceId":"usda-wasde","sourceName":"USDA WASDE historical data","sourceUrl":"https://www.usda.gov/historical-wasde-report-data","date":"2026-06-06T11:33:23.605Z","confidence":90,"severity":"high","evidenceKey":"impact:usda-wasde-mexico-soymeal-stocks-monthly-balance-impact","score":6621},{"id":"impact:usda-ers-feed-grains-corn-ending-stocks-feed-margin-impact","kind":"impact","kindLabel":"Driver impact","title":"Corn ending stocks changes feed-margin pressure","read":"1,957 million bushels in the USDA ERS Feed Grains Database. This is an official feed, forage, and byproduct-cost input for cattle breakevens.","producerAction":"Reprice the next feed turn now: compare local corn, hay, protein, freight, and cattle bids before holding weight or leaving ration coverage open.","sourceId":"usda-ers-feed-grains","sourceName":"USDA ERS Feed Grains Database","sourceUrl":"https://ers.usda.gov/data-products/feed-grains-database/documentation","date":"2026-06-06T11:33:23.605Z","confidence":90,"severity":"high","evidenceKey":"impact:usda-ers-feed-grains-corn-ending-stocks-feed-margin-impact","score":6621},{"id":"impact:world-bank-pink-sheet-crude-oil-north-america-commodity-margin-impact","kind":"impact","kindLabel":"Driver impact","title":"North America Global Brent crude oil price is moving the margin stack","read":"107.5 $/bbl in the latest World Bank commodity sheet. Read this against pasture input, fertilizer, diesel, freight, and working capital.","producerAction":"Reprice the next gain period, forage plan, and delivered-feed bill before buying inputs or holding cattle longer.","sourceId":"world-bank-pink-sheet","sourceName":"World Bank commodity prices","sourceUrl":"https://www.worldbank.org/en/research/commodity-markets","date":"2026-06-06T11:33:23.605Z","confidence":84,"severity":"high","evidenceKey":"impact:world-bank-pink-sheet-crude-oil-north-america-commodity-margin-impact","score":6573},{"id":"impact:world-bank-pink-sheet-dap-north-america-commodity-margin-impact","kind":"impact","kindLabel":"Driver impact","title":"North America Global DAP fertilizer price is moving the margin stack","read":"770 $/mt in the latest World Bank commodity sheet. Read this against pasture input, fertilizer, diesel, freight, and working capital.","producerAction":"Reprice the next gain period, forage plan, and delivered-feed bill before buying inputs or holding cattle longer.","sourceId":"world-bank-pink-sheet","sourceName":"World Bank commodity prices","sourceUrl":"https://www.worldbank.org/en/research/commodity-markets","date":"2026-06-06T11:33:23.605Z","confidence":84,"severity":"high","evidenceKey":"impact:world-bank-pink-sheet-dap-north-america-commodity-margin-impact","score":6573}],"pastToFuture":[{"id":"pasture-stress-to-sale-runs","driver":"Pasture stress becomes sale pressure","lookbackWindow":"30-120 days","forwardWindow":"2-16 weeks","lag":"Pasture stress usually hits feed buying first, sale runs second, and replacement prices last.","leadingSignals":["Soil moisture drops below seasonal median","Pasture condition ratings deteriorate","Hay and supplement quotes firm before auction volume rises"],"forwardEffects":["More calves and cull cows move earlier","Replacement animals face discount risk in dry regions","Feed cost can erase the value of extra gain"],"producerDecision":"Move from calendar-based selling to forage-days and feed-margin selling.","confidence":86},{"id":"crop-balance-to-feed-margin","driver":"Crop balance becomes feed margin","lookbackWindow":"90 days to 5 years","forwardWindow":"1-18 months","lag":"Acreage and crop condition lead production; production leads feed price; feed price leads cattle and milk margins.","leadingSignals":["Acreage, crop progress, and soil moisture shift together","Balance-sheet revisions tighten ending stocks","Rail, freight, or port pressure widens local basis"],"forwardEffects":["Backgrounding and finishing margins compress","Dairy ration spend rises before cull flow changes","Crop producers may gain price opportunity while livestock producers face cost risk"],"producerDecision":"Use the crop balance to decide feed coverage, hay buying, grain pricing, and stocking rate.","confidence":84},{"id":"health-alert-to-market-access","driver":"Animal-health alerts become market-access friction","lookbackWindow":"Same day to 5 years","forwardWindow":"Same day to 12 months","lag":"A disease notice can affect movement immediately, then trade access and buyer confidence over weeks or months.","leadingSignals":["Official disease notice or surveillance update","Movement guidance, testing rules, or border language changes","Buyer discounts appear before broad price averages adjust"],"forwardEffects":["Movement costs and delays rise","Export eligibility or buyer confidence can narrow","Biosecurity spend becomes part of the margin calculation"],"producerDecision":"Check health status before moving cattle, buying replacements, or signing export-sensitive commitments.","confidence":83},{"id":"export-pull-to-local-basis","driver":"Export pull changes local basis","lookbackWindow":"4-52 weeks","forwardWindow":"1-12 weeks","lag":"Export sales lead shipments; shipments lead customs totals; customs totals confirm structural demand.","leadingSignals":["Weekly sales or attaché reports change before monthly trade files","Destination concentration rises","Currency makes local supply cheaper or dearer to importers"],"forwardEffects":["Processor bids widen or narrow by export access","Feed and crop basis shifts around ports and corridors","Sanitary or border events can erase the signal quickly"],"producerDecision":"Price cattle and crops with local basis plus destination exposure, not only the national headline.","confidence":82},{"id":"heat-load-to-milk-gain","driver":"Heat load becomes milk and weight-gain drag","lookbackWindow":"7-90 days","forwardWindow":"Same day to 12 weeks","lag":"Heat and humidity affect intake first, then milk, weight gain, conception, and sale timing.","leadingSignals":["Temperature-humidity pressure rises for multiple days","Water demand and night cooling fail to reset","Feed intake falls before production reports update"],"forwardEffects":["Milk output and components weaken","Finishing cattle gain less efficiently","Water, shade, and ration timing become margin controls"],"producerDecision":"Move heat mitigation and ration timing ahead of sale-weight or milk-output assumptions.","confidence":82}],"scenarioTests":[{"id":"heat-stress-milk-loss","name":"Heat stress cuts milk and gain","sector":"dairy","defaultIntensity":44,"description":"Temperature, humidity, and water stress reduce milk output, weight gain, conception, and pasture recovery.","producerDecision":"Prioritize shade, water, ration timing, and sale weights before the heat signal shows up in production reports.","outputs":[{"label":"Milk-yield loss","baseline":12,"unit":"%","perIntensityPoint":0.44,"direction":"higher-is-risk"},{"label":"Weight-gain drag","baseline":14,"unit":"%","perIntensityPoint":0.39,"direction":"higher-is-risk"},{"label":"Cooling and water urgency","baseline":28,"unit":"%","perIntensityPoint":0.58,"direction":"higher-is-risk"}]},{"id":"drought-shock","name":"Drought tightens forage","sector":"feed","defaultIntensity":42,"description":"Pasture weakens, hay gets tighter, and more cows or calves can move earlier than planned.","producerDecision":"Check forage inventory, water, and the value of selling lighter cattle before everyone else is forced to.","outputs":[{"label":"Hay cost risk","baseline":28,"unit":"%","perIntensityPoint":0.72,"direction":"higher-is-risk"},{"label":"Early sale pressure","baseline":22,"unit":"%","perIntensityPoint":0.58,"direction":"higher-is-risk"},{"label":"Pasture carrying days","baseline":64,"unit":"days","perIntensityPoint":-0.42,"direction":"lower-is-risk"}]},{"id":"crop-yield-shock","name":"Crop yield shock","sector":"crops","defaultIntensity":38,"description":"Soil moisture, heat, and rainfall patterns point to lower crop yields before harvest data is published.","producerDecision":"Decide whether to protect feed needs, price grain, adjust planting, or buy hay before local shortages are obvious.","outputs":[{"label":"Feed cost pressure","baseline":24,"unit":"%","perIntensityPoint":0.64,"direction":"higher-is-risk"},{"label":"Yield downside","baseline":18,"unit":"%","perIntensityPoint":0.52,"direction":"higher-is-risk"},{"label":"Hedging urgency","baseline":31,"unit":"%","perIntensityPoint":0.48,"direction":"higher-is-risk"}]},{"id":"geopolitical-shipping-shock","name":"War and shipping disruption","sector":"feed","defaultIntensity":37,"description":"Conflict, sanctions, canal disruption, or route risk changes grain, fertilizer, fuel, freight, and protein trade costs.","producerDecision":"Before holding cattle for more gain, check whether war or shipping risk has changed delivered feed, fertilizer, freight, or buyer access.","outputs":[{"label":"Delivered-input risk","baseline":24,"unit":"%","perIntensityPoint":0.69,"direction":"higher-is-risk"},{"label":"Basis and freight drag","baseline":21,"unit":"%","perIntensityPoint":0.64,"direction":"higher-is-risk"},{"label":"Local substitution value","baseline":30,"unit":"%","perIntensityPoint":0.35,"direction":"higher-is-opportunity"}]},{"id":"port-freight-shock","name":"Port and freight shock","sector":"feed","defaultIntensity":36,"description":"Port congestion, fuel, border friction, or shipping disruption widens the gap between farm price and destination price.","producerDecision":"Before moving cattle, hay, grain, milk, or inputs, test whether freight has already eaten the price signal.","outputs":[{"label":"Delivered-feed risk","baseline":26,"unit":"%","perIntensityPoint":0.73,"direction":"higher-is-risk"},{"label":"Export basis drag","baseline":22,"unit":"%","perIntensityPoint":0.59,"direction":"higher-is-risk"},{"label":"Local arbitrage window","baseline":35,"unit":"%","perIntensityPoint":0.32,"direction":"higher-is-opportunity"}]}],"localBoards":[{"id":"united-states-feed-belt","name":"United States feed and crop belt","country":"United States","kind":"Feed belt","risk":70,"opportunity":84,"estimatedSeries":546,"decisionUse":"Use feed grain, hay, protein meal, crop progress, fuel, and credit signals before buying feed or holding weight longer.","watchSignal":"Delivered feed basis, crop yield risk, freight, diesel, and financing pressure."},{"id":"united-states-dairy-belt","name":"United States dairy and processor belt","country":"United States","kind":"Dairy belt","risk":70,"opportunity":83,"estimatedSeries":730,"decisionUse":"Use milk price, solids, feed cost, cull-cow flow, and processor demand before changing ration, culling, or replacement plans.","watchSignal":"Milk-feed spread, processor pull, dairy-beef supply, and replacement economics."},{"id":"united-states-pasture-basin","name":"United States pasture and water basin","country":"United States","kind":"Pasture basin","risk":69,"opportunity":83,"estimatedSeries":709,"decisionUse":"Use rainfall, heat, water, pasture, and forage signals before changing stocking rate, sale pressure, or supplement buying.","watchSignal":"Pasture recovery, water stress, heat load, hay availability, and forced-sale risk."},{"id":"united-states-trade-corridor","name":"United States trade and health corridor","country":"United States","kind":"Trade corridor","risk":68,"opportunity":84,"estimatedSeries":627,"decisionUse":"Use export access, border movement, disease notices, freight, currency, and policy signals before committing volume.","watchSignal":"Destination concentration, sanitary access, port flow, border friction, and currency translation."},{"id":"canada-feed-belt","name":"Canada feed and crop belt","country":"Canada","kind":"Feed belt","risk":67,"opportunity":84,"estimatedSeries":546,"decisionUse":"Use feed grain, hay, protein meal, crop progress, fuel, and credit signals before buying feed or holding weight longer.","watchSignal":"Delivered feed basis, crop yield risk, freight, diesel, and financing pressure."}],"coverageGaps":[{"id":"canada-beef-dairy-trade","country":"Canada","layer":"Beef, dairy, live animal, grain, and feed trade flows","status":"api-ready","category":"Trade","estimatedSeries":120,"producerRisk":"Export pull, import pressure, destination risk, and local basis.","nextCheck":"Maps customs movement into buyer-access and feed-cost signals."},{"id":"mexico-beef-dairy-trade","country":"Mexico","layer":"Beef, dairy, live animal, grain, and feed trade flows","status":"api-ready","category":"Trade","estimatedSeries":120,"producerRisk":"Export pull, import pressure, destination risk, and local basis.","nextCheck":"Maps customs movement into buyer-access and feed-cost signals."},{"id":"united-states-beef-dairy-trade","country":"United States","layer":"Beef, dairy, live animal, grain, and feed trade flows","status":"api-ready","category":"Trade","estimatedSeries":120,"producerRisk":"Export pull, import pressure, destination risk, and local basis.","nextCheck":"Maps customs movement into buyer-access and feed-cost signals."},{"id":"canada-crop-progress-production","country":"Canada","layer":"Crop area, progress, yield, production, stocks, and balance sheets","status":"api-ready","category":"Crops","estimatedSeries":110,"producerRisk":"Feed supply, crop margins, ration substitution, and stocking rate.","nextCheck":"Connects crop balance to feed margin and cattle timing."},{"id":"mexico-crop-progress-production","country":"Mexico","layer":"Crop area, progress, yield, production, stocks, and balance sheets","status":"api-ready","category":"Crops","estimatedSeries":110,"producerRisk":"Feed supply, crop margins, ration substitution, and stocking rate.","nextCheck":"Connects crop balance to feed margin and cattle timing."},{"id":"united-states-crop-progress-production","country":"United States","layer":"Crop area, progress, yield, production, stocks, and balance sheets","status":"api-ready","category":"Crops","estimatedSeries":110,"producerRisk":"Feed supply, crop margins, ration substitution, and stocking rate.","nextCheck":"Connects crop balance to feed margin and cattle timing."},{"id":"canada-herd-inventory","country":"Canada","layer":"Bovine herd, cow inventory, calf crop, and replacement numbers","status":"api-ready","category":"Inventory","estimatedSeries":80,"producerRisk":"Herd rebuild, replacement value, long-cycle supply, and basis.","nextCheck":"Links structural supply to future cattle availability."},{"id":"mexico-herd-inventory","country":"Mexico","layer":"Bovine herd, cow inventory, calf crop, and replacement numbers","status":"api-ready","category":"Inventory","estimatedSeries":80,"producerRisk":"Herd rebuild, replacement value, long-cycle supply, and basis.","nextCheck":"Links structural supply to future cattle availability."}],"decisionChain":[{"id":"feed-crop-margin:question","label":"Question","title":"Are corn, soy meal, hay, fertilizer, diesel, or crop balance changing the value of weight gain?","detail":"Crop balance and input costs often move cattle margins before cattle headlines do."},{"id":"feed-crop-margin:signal","label":"Current signal","title":"U.S. corn ending stocks changes the monthly feed and supply read","detail":"1,957 million bushels in the May 2026 WASDE for 2026/27; -8.6% versus 2025/26. This is the official monthly bridge from crop/feed balance to cattle, milk, and sale timing."},{"id":"feed-crop-margin:effect","label":"Market effect","title":"Sale timing, weight class target, and hedge urgency","detail":"Sell now, add pounds, or price-protect cattle before bids soften."},{"id":"feed-crop-margin:history","label":"Past pattern","title":"Pasture stress becomes sale pressure","detail":"30-120 days -> 2-16 weeks: Pasture stress usually hits feed buying first, sale runs second, and replacement prices last."},{"id":"feed-crop-margin:scenario","label":"Scenario","title":"Heat stress cuts milk and gain","detail":"Temperature, humidity, and water stress reduce milk output, weight gain, conception, and pasture recovery."},{"id":"feed-crop-margin:action","label":"Action","title":"United States feed and crop belt, United States","detail":"Use feed grain, hay, protein meal, crop progress, fuel, and credit signals before buying feed or holding weight longer."}],"citationText":"Feed and crop margin for north-america is watch with 287 current signals, 11 historical patterns, and 12 scenarios."},{"id":"decision-readiness:north-america:sell-hold-or-hedge","lensId":"sell-hold-or-hedge","label":"Sell, hold, or hedge","question":"Does the next weight gain still pay after feed, freight, basis, and buyer risk?","headline":"Starts with cash prices, futures positioning, feed spreads, and local basis before a producer changes sale timing.","producerAction":"Compare today’s bid against the cost and risk of carrying cattle through the next gain window.","refreshCadence":"Daily to weekly","sectors":["beef","feed","crops"],"readinessStatus":"watch","readinessLabel":"Watch","readinessScore":77,"summary":{"evidenceItems":245,"liveObservations":38,"driverImpacts":121,"marketEvents":54,"temporalSignals":2,"causalPaths":30,"sourceFamilies":28,"liveSourceFamilies":22,"mappedMarketFeeds":84,"estimatedPublicSeries":5223,"sourceGraphEdges":28,"historicalDrivers":9,"scenarios":10,"localMarkets":15},"currentSignals":[{"id":"impact:usda-ers-feed-grains-corn-ending-stocks-feed-margin-impact","kind":"impact","kindLabel":"Driver impact","title":"Corn ending stocks changes feed-margin pressure","read":"1,957 million bushels in the USDA ERS Feed Grains Database. This is an official feed, forage, and byproduct-cost input for cattle breakevens.","producerAction":"Reprice the next feed turn now: compare local corn, hay, protein, freight, and cattle bids before holding weight or leaving ration coverage open.","sourceId":"usda-ers-feed-grains","sourceName":"USDA ERS Feed Grains Database","sourceUrl":"https://ers.usda.gov/data-products/feed-grains-database/documentation","date":"2026-06-06T11:33:23.605Z","confidence":90,"severity":"high","evidenceKey":"impact:usda-ers-feed-grains-corn-ending-stocks-feed-margin-impact","score":6621},{"id":"impact:cftc-cot-corn-hedge-margin-impact","kind":"impact","kindLabel":"Driver impact","title":"Corn COT positioning changes hedge and feed-risk timing","read":"6 % net long / open interest in the latest CFTC Commitments of Traders report. Feed futures positioning is a weekly early-warning signal for ration coverage and crop-feed exposure.","producerAction":"Use the COT feed read with local corn, hay, freight, and weather before delaying ration coverage or holding cattle for extra gain.","sourceId":"cftc-cot","sourceName":"CFTC Commitments of Traders","sourceUrl":"https://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/index.htm","date":"2026-06-06T11:33:23.605Z","confidence":86,"severity":"high","evidenceKey":"impact:cftc-cot-corn-hedge-margin-impact","score":6619},{"id":"impact:cftc-cot-live-cattle-hedge-margin-impact","kind":"impact","kindLabel":"Driver impact","title":"Live cattle COT positioning changes hedge and feed-risk timing","read":"34 % net long / open interest in the latest CFTC Commitments of Traders report. Cattle positioning is a weekly early-warning signal for hedge urgency, retained ownership, and basis risk.","producerAction":"Use the COT cattle read with local cash bids before holding unhedged cattle weight or assuming buyer leverage will stay unchanged.","sourceId":"cftc-cot","sourceName":"CFTC Commitments of Traders","sourceUrl":"https://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/index.htm","date":"2026-06-06T11:33:23.605Z","confidence":88,"severity":"high","evidenceKey":"impact:cftc-cot-live-cattle-hedge-margin-impact","score":6605},{"id":"impact:world-bank-pink-sheet-crude-oil-north-america-commodity-margin-impact","kind":"impact","kindLabel":"Driver impact","title":"North America Global Brent crude oil price is moving the margin stack","read":"107.5 $/bbl in the latest World Bank commodity sheet. Read this against pasture input, fertilizer, diesel, freight, and working capital.","producerAction":"Reprice the next gain period, forage plan, and delivered-feed bill before buying inputs or holding cattle longer.","sourceId":"world-bank-pink-sheet","sourceName":"World Bank commodity prices","sourceUrl":"https://www.worldbank.org/en/research/commodity-markets","date":"2026-06-06T11:33:23.605Z","confidence":84,"severity":"high","evidenceKey":"impact:world-bank-pink-sheet-crude-oil-north-america-commodity-margin-impact","score":6573},{"id":"impact:world-bank-pink-sheet-dap-north-america-commodity-margin-impact","kind":"impact","kindLabel":"Driver impact","title":"North America Global DAP fertilizer price is moving the margin stack","read":"770 $/mt in the latest World Bank commodity sheet. Read this against pasture input, fertilizer, diesel, freight, and working capital.","producerAction":"Reprice the next gain period, forage plan, and delivered-feed bill before buying inputs or holding cattle longer.","sourceId":"world-bank-pink-sheet","sourceName":"World Bank commodity prices","sourceUrl":"https://www.worldbank.org/en/research/commodity-markets","date":"2026-06-06T11:33:23.605Z","confidence":84,"severity":"high","evidenceKey":"impact:world-bank-pink-sheet-dap-north-america-commodity-margin-impact","score":6573},{"id":"impact:world-bank-pink-sheet-urea-north-america-commodity-margin-impact","kind":"impact","kindLabel":"Driver impact","title":"North America Global urea fertilizer price is moving the margin stack","read":"771 $/mt in the latest World Bank commodity sheet. Read this against pasture input, fertilizer, diesel, freight, and working capital.","producerAction":"Reprice the next gain period, forage plan, and delivered-feed bill before buying inputs or holding cattle longer.","sourceId":"world-bank-pink-sheet","sourceName":"World Bank commodity prices","sourceUrl":"https://www.worldbank.org/en/research/commodity-markets","date":"2026-06-06T11:33:23.605Z","confidence":84,"severity":"high","evidenceKey":"impact:world-bank-pink-sheet-urea-north-america-commodity-margin-impact","score":6573},{"id":"impact:world-bank-pink-sheet-maize-north-america-commodity-margin-impact","kind":"impact","kindLabel":"Driver impact","title":"North America Global maize price is moving the margin stack","read":"216 $/mt in the latest World Bank commodity sheet. Read this against ration cost, hay substitution, and feeder bids.","producerAction":"Reprice the next gain period, forage plan, and delivered-feed bill before buying inputs or holding cattle longer.","sourceId":"world-bank-pink-sheet","sourceName":"World Bank commodity prices","sourceUrl":"https://www.worldbank.org/en/research/commodity-markets","date":"2026-06-06T11:33:23.605Z","confidence":78,"severity":"high","evidenceKey":"impact:world-bank-pink-sheet-maize-north-america-commodity-margin-impact","score":6525},{"id":"impact:world-bank-pink-sheet-soybean-meal-north-america-commodity-margin-impact","kind":"impact","kindLabel":"Driver impact","title":"North America Global soybean meal price is moving the margin stack","read":"421 $/mt in the latest World Bank commodity sheet. Read this against ration cost, hay substitution, and feeder bids.","producerAction":"Reprice the next gain period, forage plan, and delivered-feed bill before buying inputs or holding cattle longer.","sourceId":"world-bank-pink-sheet","sourceName":"World Bank commodity prices","sourceUrl":"https://www.worldbank.org/en/research/commodity-markets","date":"2026-06-06T11:33:23.605Z","confidence":78,"severity":"high","evidenceKey":"impact:world-bank-pink-sheet-soybean-meal-north-america-commodity-margin-impact","score":6525}],"pastToFuture":[{"id":"pasture-stress-to-sale-runs","driver":"Pasture stress becomes sale pressure","lookbackWindow":"30-120 days","forwardWindow":"2-16 weeks","lag":"Pasture stress usually hits feed buying first, sale runs second, and replacement prices last.","leadingSignals":["Soil moisture drops below seasonal median","Pasture condition ratings deteriorate","Hay and supplement quotes firm before auction volume rises"],"forwardEffects":["More calves and cull cows move earlier","Replacement animals face discount risk in dry regions","Feed cost can erase the value of extra gain"],"producerDecision":"Move from calendar-based selling to forage-days and feed-margin selling.","confidence":86},{"id":"crop-balance-to-feed-margin","driver":"Crop balance becomes feed margin","lookbackWindow":"90 days to 5 years","forwardWindow":"1-18 months","lag":"Acreage and crop condition lead production; production leads feed price; feed price leads cattle and milk margins.","leadingSignals":["Acreage, crop progress, and soil moisture shift together","Balance-sheet revisions tighten ending stocks","Rail, freight, or port pressure widens local basis"],"forwardEffects":["Backgrounding and finishing margins compress","Dairy ration spend rises before cull flow changes","Crop producers may gain price opportunity while livestock producers face cost risk"],"producerDecision":"Use the crop balance to decide feed coverage, hay buying, grain pricing, and stocking rate.","confidence":84},{"id":"export-pull-to-local-basis","driver":"Export pull changes local basis","lookbackWindow":"4-52 weeks","forwardWindow":"1-12 weeks","lag":"Export sales lead shipments; shipments lead customs totals; customs totals confirm structural demand.","leadingSignals":["Weekly sales or attaché reports change before monthly trade files","Destination concentration rises","Currency makes local supply cheaper or dearer to importers"],"forwardEffects":["Processor bids widen or narrow by export access","Feed and crop basis shifts around ports and corridors","Sanitary or border events can erase the signal quickly"],"producerDecision":"Price cattle and crops with local basis plus destination exposure, not only the national headline.","confidence":82},{"id":"heat-load-to-milk-gain","driver":"Heat load becomes milk and weight-gain drag","lookbackWindow":"7-90 days","forwardWindow":"Same day to 12 weeks","lag":"Heat and humidity affect intake first, then milk, weight gain, conception, and sale timing.","leadingSignals":["Temperature-humidity pressure rises for multiple days","Water demand and night cooling fail to reset","Feed intake falls before production reports update"],"forwardEffects":["Milk output and components weaken","Finishing cattle gain less efficiently","Water, shade, and ration timing become margin controls"],"producerDecision":"Move heat mitigation and ration timing ahead of sale-weight or milk-output assumptions.","confidence":82},{"id":"dairy-margin-to-beef-supply","driver":"Dairy margins become beef supply","lookbackWindow":"4-26 weeks","forwardWindow":"2-20 weeks","lag":"Milk price and feed cost hit dairy margins before cull cow flow and beef supply respond.","leadingSignals":["Milk-feed spread narrows","Dairy auction prices weaken","Feed and energy prices rise together"],"forwardEffects":["Cull cows enter beef supply","Replacement appetite weakens","Milk output can fall after ration cuts"],"producerDecision":"Reprice ration, cull timing, and replacement purchases before monthly milk checks settle.","confidence":81}],"scenarioTests":[{"id":"drought-shock","name":"Drought tightens forage","sector":"feed","defaultIntensity":42,"description":"Pasture weakens, hay gets tighter, and more cows or calves can move earlier than planned.","producerDecision":"Check forage inventory, water, and the value of selling lighter cattle before everyone else is forced to.","outputs":[{"label":"Hay cost risk","baseline":28,"unit":"%","perIntensityPoint":0.72,"direction":"higher-is-risk"},{"label":"Early sale pressure","baseline":22,"unit":"%","perIntensityPoint":0.58,"direction":"higher-is-risk"},{"label":"Pasture carrying days","baseline":64,"unit":"days","perIntensityPoint":-0.42,"direction":"lower-is-risk"}]},{"id":"crop-yield-shock","name":"Crop yield shock","sector":"crops","defaultIntensity":38,"description":"Soil moisture, heat, and rainfall patterns point to lower crop yields before harvest data is published.","producerDecision":"Decide whether to protect feed needs, price grain, adjust planting, or buy hay before local shortages are obvious.","outputs":[{"label":"Feed cost pressure","baseline":24,"unit":"%","perIntensityPoint":0.64,"direction":"higher-is-risk"},{"label":"Yield downside","baseline":18,"unit":"%","perIntensityPoint":0.52,"direction":"higher-is-risk"},{"label":"Hedging urgency","baseline":31,"unit":"%","perIntensityPoint":0.48,"direction":"higher-is-risk"}]},{"id":"geopolitical-shipping-shock","name":"War and shipping disruption","sector":"feed","defaultIntensity":37,"description":"Conflict, sanctions, canal disruption, or route risk changes grain, fertilizer, fuel, freight, and protein trade costs.","producerDecision":"Before holding cattle for more gain, check whether war or shipping risk has changed delivered feed, fertilizer, freight, or buyer access.","outputs":[{"label":"Delivered-input risk","baseline":24,"unit":"%","perIntensityPoint":0.69,"direction":"higher-is-risk"},{"label":"Basis and freight drag","baseline":21,"unit":"%","perIntensityPoint":0.64,"direction":"higher-is-risk"},{"label":"Local substitution value","baseline":30,"unit":"%","perIntensityPoint":0.35,"direction":"higher-is-opportunity"}]},{"id":"port-freight-shock","name":"Port and freight shock","sector":"feed","defaultIntensity":36,"description":"Port congestion, fuel, border friction, or shipping disruption widens the gap between farm price and destination price.","producerDecision":"Before moving cattle, hay, grain, milk, or inputs, test whether freight has already eaten the price signal.","outputs":[{"label":"Delivered-feed risk","baseline":26,"unit":"%","perIntensityPoint":0.73,"direction":"higher-is-risk"},{"label":"Export basis drag","baseline":22,"unit":"%","perIntensityPoint":0.59,"direction":"higher-is-risk"},{"label":"Local arbitrage window","baseline":35,"unit":"%","perIntensityPoint":0.32,"direction":"higher-is-opportunity"}]},{"id":"feed-cost-spike","name":"Feed cost spike","sector":"feed","defaultIntensity":35,"description":"Corn, hay, soybean meal, fuel, or freight costs rise faster than cattle value.","producerDecision":"Recalculate whether the next gain period is still worth feeding.","outputs":[{"label":"Feed breakeven pressure","baseline":34,"unit":"%","perIntensityPoint":0.66,"direction":"higher-is-risk"},{"label":"Margin cushion","baseline":24,"unit":"%","perIntensityPoint":-0.45,"direction":"lower-is-risk"},{"label":"Freight sensitivity","baseline":18,"unit":"%","perIntensityPoint":0.31,"direction":"higher-is-risk"}]}],"localBoards":[{"id":"united-states-feed-belt","name":"United States feed and crop belt","country":"United States","kind":"Feed belt","risk":70,"opportunity":84,"estimatedSeries":546,"decisionUse":"Use feed grain, hay, protein meal, crop progress, fuel, and credit signals before buying feed or holding weight longer.","watchSignal":"Delivered feed basis, crop yield risk, freight, diesel, and financing pressure."},{"id":"united-states-dairy-belt","name":"United States dairy and processor belt","country":"United States","kind":"Dairy belt","risk":70,"opportunity":83,"estimatedSeries":730,"decisionUse":"Use milk price, solids, feed cost, cull-cow flow, and processor demand before changing ration, culling, or replacement plans.","watchSignal":"Milk-feed spread, processor pull, dairy-beef supply, and replacement economics."},{"id":"united-states-pasture-basin","name":"United States pasture and water basin","country":"United States","kind":"Pasture basin","risk":69,"opportunity":83,"estimatedSeries":709,"decisionUse":"Use rainfall, heat, water, pasture, and forage signals before changing stocking rate, sale pressure, or supplement buying.","watchSignal":"Pasture recovery, water stress, heat load, hay availability, and forced-sale risk."},{"id":"united-states-trade-corridor","name":"United States trade and health corridor","country":"United States","kind":"Trade corridor","risk":68,"opportunity":84,"estimatedSeries":627,"decisionUse":"Use export access, border movement, disease notices, freight, currency, and policy signals before committing volume.","watchSignal":"Destination concentration, sanitary access, port flow, border friction, and currency translation."},{"id":"canada-feed-belt","name":"Canada feed and crop belt","country":"Canada","kind":"Feed belt","risk":67,"opportunity":84,"estimatedSeries":546,"decisionUse":"Use feed grain, hay, protein meal, crop progress, fuel, and credit signals before buying feed or holding weight longer.","watchSignal":"Delivered feed basis, crop yield risk, freight, diesel, and financing pressure."}],"coverageGaps":[{"id":"canada-beef-dairy-trade","country":"Canada","layer":"Beef, dairy, live animal, grain, and feed trade flows","status":"api-ready","category":"Trade","estimatedSeries":120,"producerRisk":"Export pull, import pressure, destination risk, and local basis.","nextCheck":"Maps customs movement into buyer-access and feed-cost signals."},{"id":"mexico-beef-dairy-trade","country":"Mexico","layer":"Beef, dairy, live animal, grain, and feed trade flows","status":"api-ready","category":"Trade","estimatedSeries":120,"producerRisk":"Export pull, import pressure, destination risk, and local basis.","nextCheck":"Maps customs movement into buyer-access and feed-cost signals."},{"id":"united-states-beef-dairy-trade","country":"United States","layer":"Beef, dairy, live animal, grain, and feed trade flows","status":"api-ready","category":"Trade","estimatedSeries":120,"producerRisk":"Export pull, import pressure, destination risk, and local basis.","nextCheck":"Maps customs movement into buyer-access and feed-cost signals."},{"id":"canada-crop-progress-production","country":"Canada","layer":"Crop area, progress, yield, production, stocks, and balance sheets","status":"api-ready","category":"Crops","estimatedSeries":110,"producerRisk":"Feed supply, crop margins, ration substitution, and stocking rate.","nextCheck":"Connects crop balance to feed margin and cattle timing."},{"id":"mexico-crop-progress-production","country":"Mexico","layer":"Crop area, progress, yield, production, stocks, and balance sheets","status":"api-ready","category":"Crops","estimatedSeries":110,"producerRisk":"Feed supply, crop margins, ration substitution, and stocking rate.","nextCheck":"Connects crop balance to feed margin and cattle timing."},{"id":"united-states-crop-progress-production","country":"United States","layer":"Crop area, progress, yield, production, stocks, and balance sheets","status":"api-ready","category":"Crops","estimatedSeries":110,"producerRisk":"Feed supply, crop margins, ration substitution, and stocking rate.","nextCheck":"Connects crop balance to feed margin and cattle timing."},{"id":"canada-herd-inventory","country":"Canada","layer":"Bovine herd, cow inventory, calf crop, and replacement numbers","status":"api-ready","category":"Inventory","estimatedSeries":80,"producerRisk":"Herd rebuild, replacement value, long-cycle supply, and basis.","nextCheck":"Links structural supply to future cattle availability."},{"id":"mexico-herd-inventory","country":"Mexico","layer":"Bovine herd, cow inventory, calf crop, and replacement numbers","status":"api-ready","category":"Inventory","estimatedSeries":80,"producerRisk":"Herd rebuild, replacement value, long-cycle supply, and basis.","nextCheck":"Links structural supply to future cattle availability."}],"decisionChain":[{"id":"sell-hold-or-hedge:question","label":"Question","title":"Does the next weight gain still pay after feed, freight, basis, and buyer risk?","detail":"Starts with cash prices, futures positioning, feed spreads, and local basis before a producer changes sale timing."},{"id":"sell-hold-or-hedge:signal","label":"Current signal","title":"Corn ending stocks changes feed-margin pressure","detail":"1,957 million bushels in the USDA ERS Feed Grains Database. This is an official feed, forage, and byproduct-cost input for cattle breakevens."},{"id":"sell-hold-or-hedge:effect","label":"Market effect","title":"Sale timing, weight class target, and hedge urgency","detail":"Sell now, add pounds, or price-protect cattle before bids soften."},{"id":"sell-hold-or-hedge:history","label":"Past pattern","title":"Pasture stress becomes sale pressure","detail":"30-120 days -> 2-16 weeks: Pasture stress usually hits feed buying first, sale runs second, and replacement prices last."},{"id":"sell-hold-or-hedge:scenario","label":"Scenario","title":"Drought tightens forage","detail":"Pasture weakens, hay gets tighter, and more cows or calves can move earlier than planned."},{"id":"sell-hold-or-hedge:action","label":"Action","title":"United States feed and crop belt, United States","detail":"Use feed grain, hay, protein meal, crop progress, fuel, and credit signals before buying feed or holding weight longer."}],"citationText":"Sell, hold, or hedge for north-america is watch with 245 current signals, 9 historical patterns, and 10 scenarios."}],"coverageGaps":[{"id":"canada-beef-dairy-trade","country":"Canada","layer":"Beef, dairy, live animal, grain, and feed trade flows","status":"api-ready","category":"Trade","estimatedSeries":120,"producerRisk":"Export pull, import pressure, destination risk, and local basis.","nextCheck":"Maps customs movement into buyer-access and feed-cost signals."},{"id":"mexico-beef-dairy-trade","country":"Mexico","layer":"Beef, dairy, live animal, grain, and feed trade flows","status":"api-ready","category":"Trade","estimatedSeries":120,"producerRisk":"Export pull, import pressure, destination risk, and local basis.","nextCheck":"Maps customs movement into buyer-access and feed-cost signals."},{"id":"united-states-beef-dairy-trade","country":"United States","layer":"Beef, dairy, live animal, grain, and feed trade flows","status":"api-ready","category":"Trade","estimatedSeries":120,"producerRisk":"Export pull, import pressure, destination risk, and local basis.","nextCheck":"Maps customs movement into buyer-access and feed-cost signals."},{"id":"canada-crop-progress-production","country":"Canada","layer":"Crop area, progress, yield, production, stocks, and balance sheets","status":"api-ready","category":"Crops","estimatedSeries":110,"producerRisk":"Feed supply, crop margins, ration substitution, and stocking rate.","nextCheck":"Connects crop balance to feed margin and cattle timing."},{"id":"mexico-crop-progress-production","country":"Mexico","layer":"Crop area, progress, yield, production, stocks, and balance sheets","status":"api-ready","category":"Crops","estimatedSeries":110,"producerRisk":"Feed supply, crop margins, ration substitution, and stocking rate.","nextCheck":"Connects crop balance to feed margin and cattle timing."},{"id":"united-states-crop-progress-production","country":"United States","layer":"Crop area, progress, yield, production, stocks, and balance sheets","status":"api-ready","category":"Crops","estimatedSeries":110,"producerRisk":"Feed supply, crop margins, ration substitution, and stocking rate.","nextCheck":"Connects crop balance to feed margin and cattle timing."},{"id":"canada-herd-inventory","country":"Canada","layer":"Bovine herd, cow inventory, calf crop, and replacement numbers","status":"api-ready","category":"Inventory","estimatedSeries":80,"producerRisk":"Herd rebuild, replacement value, long-cycle supply, and basis.","nextCheck":"Links structural supply to future cattle availability."},{"id":"mexico-herd-inventory","country":"Mexico","layer":"Bovine herd, cow inventory, calf crop, and replacement numbers","status":"api-ready","category":"Inventory","estimatedSeries":80,"producerRisk":"Herd rebuild, replacement value, long-cycle supply, and basis.","nextCheck":"Links structural supply to future cattle availability."},{"id":"canada-beef-dairy-trade","country":"Canada","layer":"Beef, dairy, live animal, grain, and feed trade flows","status":"api-ready","category":"Trade","estimatedSeries":120,"producerRisk":"Export pull, import pressure, destination risk, and local basis.","nextCheck":"Maps customs movement into buyer-access and feed-cost signals."},{"id":"mexico-beef-dairy-trade","country":"Mexico","layer":"Beef, dairy, live animal, grain, and feed trade flows","status":"api-ready","category":"Trade","estimatedSeries":120,"producerRisk":"Export pull, import pressure, destination risk, and local basis.","nextCheck":"Maps customs movement into buyer-access and feed-cost signals."},{"id":"united-states-beef-dairy-trade","country":"United States","layer":"Beef, dairy, live animal, grain, and feed trade flows","status":"api-ready","category":"Trade","estimatedSeries":120,"producerRisk":"Export pull, import pressure, destination risk, and local basis.","nextCheck":"Maps customs movement into buyer-access and feed-cost signals."},{"id":"canada-crop-progress-production","country":"Canada","layer":"Crop area, progress, yield, production, stocks, and balance sheets","status":"api-ready","category":"Crops","estimatedSeries":110,"producerRisk":"Feed supply, crop margins, ration substitution, and stocking rate.","nextCheck":"Connects crop balance to feed margin and cattle timing."}],"citationText":"North America decision readiness ranks 3 regional decisions with 844 current signals and 0 ready decisions."}]}