{"name":"Cattle Market Pulse decision traces","description":"Region-filtered source-to-action decision traces. Each trace connects a public source, current signal, causal driver, historical lead-lag rule, forward scenario, evidence rows, and producer action.","generatedAt":"2026-06-06T22:13:52.032Z","snapshotGeneratedAt":"2026-06-06T11:33:23.605Z","snapshotWindow":{"startDate":"2026-05-28","endDate":"2026-06-03"},"updateCadence":"daily","isAccessibleForFree":true,"canonicalUrl":"https://cattleweightestimation.com/market-pulse/decision-traces.json","filters":{"region":"north-america","sector":"all","lang":"en","limit":3},"summary":{"traces":3,"highSeverity":3,"mediumSeverity":0,"sourceFamilies":1,"evidenceItems":3,"sourceGraphEdges":3,"historicalDrivers":2,"scenarios":3},"queryExamples":["https://cattleweightestimation.com/market-pulse/decision-traces.json?region=north-america&sector=beef&lang=en","https://cattleweightestimation.com/market-pulse/decision-traces.json?region=latin-america&sector=feed&lang=es","https://cattleweightestimation.com/market-pulse/decision-traces.json?region=latin-america&sector=dairy&lang=pt"],"traces":{"id":"decision-traces-north-america-all-en","type":"decision-traces","title":"North America decision traces","subtitle":"Public source, current signal, causal driver, past pattern, forward scenario, and action in one chain.","locale":"en","regionId":"north-america","regionName":"North America","sector":"all","generatedAt":"2026-06-06T22:13:52.032Z","snapshotGeneratedAt":"2026-06-06T11:33:23.605Z","snapshotWindow":{"startDate":"2026-05-28","endDate":"2026-06-03"},"updateCadence":"daily","isAccessibleForFree":true,"canonicalDataUrl":"https://cattleweightestimation.com/market-pulse/decision-traces.json?region=north-america&sector=all&lang=en","summary":{"traces":3,"highSeverity":3,"mediumSeverity":0,"sourceFamilies":1,"evidenceItems":3,"sourceGraphEdges":3,"historicalDrivers":2,"scenarios":3},"topTrace":{"id":"path-north-america-event-fao-newsroom-rss-strait-of-hormuz-time-running-out-to-avert-global-food-security-cri","type":"decision-trace","regionId":"north-america","regionName":"North America","sectors":["feed","beef","dairy"],"severity":"high","priorityLabel":"Act now","confidence":82,"score":140,"updatedAt":"2026-05-26T12:00:00.000Z","title":"North America: Strait of Hormuz: Time running out to avert global food security crisis, FAO warns","currentSignal":"FAO Newsroom published a war, sanctions, or shipping-route item. Read it as a delivered feed, fertilizer, fuel, freight, and buyer-access signal.","howItAffects":"Early event awareness before official reports update: Buyer access, disease movement risk, export demand, feed input cost, weather pressure, and local sale timing","pastPattern":"Same day to 3 years history usually shows up in Same week to 12 months: Delivered feed and fertilizer become more expensive or less reliable Local basis can diverge from headline futures or export values Local feed substitution, earlier sale timing, or destination hedging becomes valuable","forwardScenario":"War and shipping disruption: Conflict, sanctions, canal disruption, or route risk changes grain, fertilizer, fuel, freight, and protein trade costs.","producerDecision":"Check delivered feed, fertilizer, fuel, freight, and route exposure before holding cattle longer or locking crop-input purchases.","source":{"id":"fao-newsroom","name":"FAO Newsroom","category":"Regional","officialUrl":"https://www.fao.org/newsroom/detail/strait-of-hormuz--time-running-out-to-avert-global-food-security-crisis--fao-warns/en"},"steps":[{"id":"path-north-america-event-fao-newsroom-rss-strait-of-hormuz-time-running-out-to-avert-global-food-security-cri:source","kind":"source","label":"Source","title":"FAO Newsroom","detail":"https://www.fao.org/newsroom/detail/strait-of-hormuz--time-running-out-to-avert-global-food-security-crisis--fao-warns/en"},{"id":"path-north-america-event-fao-newsroom-rss-strait-of-hormuz-time-running-out-to-avert-global-food-security-cri:signal","kind":"signal","label":"Current signal","title":"News/report","detail":"FAO Newsroom published a war, sanctions, or shipping-route item. Read it as a delivered feed, fertilizer, fuel, freight, and buyer-access signal."},{"id":"path-north-america-event-fao-newsroom-rss-strait-of-hormuz-time-running-out-to-avert-global-food-security-cri:driver","kind":"driver","label":"How it affects","title":"Early event awareness before official reports update","detail":"Early event awareness before official reports update: Buyer access, disease movement risk, export demand, feed input cost, weather pressure, and local sale timing"},{"id":"path-north-america-event-fao-newsroom-rss-strait-of-hormuz-time-running-out-to-avert-global-food-security-cri:history","kind":"history","label":"Past pattern","title":"Geopolitical shocks become feed, freight, and basis risk","detail":"Same day to 3 years history usually shows up in Same week to 12 months: Delivered feed and fertilizer become more expensive or less reliable Local basis can diverge from headline futures or export values Local feed substitution, earlier sale timing, or destination hedging becomes valuable"},{"id":"path-north-america-event-fao-newsroom-rss-strait-of-hormuz-time-running-out-to-avert-global-food-security-cri:scenario","kind":"scenario","label":"Forward scenario","title":"War and shipping disruption","detail":"War and shipping disruption: Conflict, sanctions, canal disruption, or route risk changes grain, fertilizer, fuel, freight, and protein trade costs."},{"id":"path-north-america-event-fao-newsroom-rss-strait-of-hormuz-time-running-out-to-avert-global-food-security-cri:action","kind":"action","label":"Producer action","title":"Act now","detail":"Check delivered feed, fertilizer, fuel, freight, and route exposure before holding cattle longer or locking crop-input purchases."}],"evidence":[{"id":"fao-newsroom-rss-strait-of-hormuz-time-running-out-to-avert-global-food-security-crisis-fao-warns-2026-05-26","kind":"event","title":"Strait of Hormuz: Time running out to avert global food security crisis, FAO warns","summary":"Public item selected because war, sanctions, ports, canals, or shipping routes can change delivered feed, fertilizer, fuel, freight, and buyer access: Strait of Hormuz: Time running out to avert global food security crisis, FAO warns","sourceId":"fao-newsroom","sourceName":"FAO Newsroom","sourceUrl":"https://www.fao.org/newsroom/detail/strait-of-hormuz--time-running-out-to-avert-global-food-security-crisis--fao-warns/en","date":"2026-05-26T12:00:00.000Z","confidence":82}],"sourceGraph":[{"id":"gdelt-news-to-market-event-risk","sourceId":"gdelt-global-news","sourceName":"GDELT global event monitor","signal":"Global public news mentions of livestock, feed, dairy, crops, disease, fuel, trade, and policy shocks","driver":"Early event awareness before official reports update","affects":"Buyer access, disease movement risk, export demand, feed input cost, weather pressure, and local sale timing","producerDecision":"Use public event signals as watch items, then confirm with official data before changing cattle, milk, feed, or crop commitments.","lag":"Same day to 8 weeks","confidence":72},{"id":"eia-diesel-to-freight-feed-cost","sourceId":"eia-fuel","sourceName":"U.S. EIA fuel prices","signal":"Weekly U.S. No. 2 diesel retail price","driver":"Freight and feed-delivery cost pressure","affects":"Hay hauling, feed delivery, yardage, crop inputs, feeder bids, and sale timing","producerDecision":"Reprice delivered feed, hay, and cattle hauling before deciding whether extra weight still pays.","lag":"Same week to 8 weeks","confidence":80},{"id":"feed-energy-to-breakeven","sourceId":"world-bank-pink-sheet","sourceName":"World Bank commodity prices","signal":"Beef, energy, fertilizer, and feed commodity prices","driver":"Feed, fertilizer, freight, and pasture input cost","affects":"Backgrounding breakeven, finishing margin, hay cost, and stocking decision","producerDecision":"Reprice the next 50 lb or 25 kg before buying feed or delaying sales.","lag":"1-6 weeks","confidence":80}],"historicalDrivers":[{"id":"geopolitical-shock-to-feed-freight","driver":"Geopolitical shocks become feed, freight, and basis risk","lookbackWindow":"Same day to 3 years","forwardWindow":"Same week to 12 months","lag":"Conflict, sanctions, or shipping-route stress can move fuel, fertilizer, grain, and freight before farmgate cattle or milk prices adjust.","leadingSignals":["Red Sea, Black Sea, canal, port, or border headlines mention grain, fertilizer, fuel, or livestock routes","Freight, fuel, fertilizer, or grain indexes move before delivered feed quotes reset","Destination or route risk weakens the translation from global price to local bid"],"forwardEffects":["Delivered feed and fertilizer become more expensive or less reliable","Local basis can diverge from headline futures or export values","Local feed substitution, earlier sale timing, or destination hedging becomes valuable"],"producerDecision":"Treat global conflict and shipping risk as a delivered-cost problem before changing sale timing, feed coverage, or crop-input purchases.","confidence":79},{"id":"logistics-to-local-basis","driver":"Logistics shocks become local basis gaps","lookbackWindow":"7 days to 3 years","forwardWindow":"Same week to 9 months","lag":"Freight and port disruption can widen local basis before national price series register the stress.","leadingSignals":["Fuel, port, rail, or border news moves before farmgate averages","Delivered feed diverges from board or benchmark price","Destination prices stop translating to local bids"],"forwardEffects":["Cattle, hay, milk, grain, and fertilizer spreads widen by corridor","Local arbitrage opportunities can appear","Remote producers face discount risk even in strong headline markets"],"producerDecision":"Price the delivered destination, not the benchmark, before moving cattle, feed, milk, or crop volume.","confidence":78}],"scenarios":[{"id":"geopolitical-shipping-shock","name":"War and shipping disruption","sector":"feed","defaultIntensity":37,"description":"Conflict, sanctions, canal disruption, or route risk changes grain, fertilizer, fuel, freight, and protein trade costs.","producerDecision":"Before holding cattle for more gain, check whether war or shipping risk has changed delivered feed, fertilizer, freight, or buyer access."},{"id":"port-freight-shock","name":"Port and freight shock","sector":"feed","defaultIntensity":36,"description":"Port congestion, fuel, border friction, or shipping disruption widens the gap between farm price and destination price.","producerDecision":"Before moving cattle, hay, grain, milk, or inputs, test whether freight has already eaten the price signal."},{"id":"feed-cost-spike","name":"Feed cost spike","sector":"feed","defaultIntensity":35,"description":"Corn, hay, soybean meal, fuel, or freight costs rise faster than cattle value.","producerDecision":"Recalculate whether the next gain period is still worth feeding."}],"citationText":"North America: Strait of Hormuz: Time running out to avert global food security crisis, FAO warns connects FAO Newsroom with 3 causal links, 2 historical patterns, 3 scenarios, and 1 evidence items."},"traces":[{"id":"path-north-america-event-fao-newsroom-rss-strait-of-hormuz-time-running-out-to-avert-global-food-security-cri","type":"decision-trace","regionId":"north-america","regionName":"North America","sectors":["feed","beef","dairy"],"severity":"high","priorityLabel":"Act now","confidence":82,"score":140,"updatedAt":"2026-05-26T12:00:00.000Z","title":"North America: Strait of Hormuz: Time running out to avert global food security crisis, FAO warns","currentSignal":"FAO Newsroom published a war, sanctions, or shipping-route item. Read it as a delivered feed, fertilizer, fuel, freight, and buyer-access signal.","howItAffects":"Early event awareness before official reports update: Buyer access, disease movement risk, export demand, feed input cost, weather pressure, and local sale timing","pastPattern":"Same day to 3 years history usually shows up in Same week to 12 months: Delivered feed and fertilizer become more expensive or less reliable Local basis can diverge from headline futures or export values Local feed substitution, earlier sale timing, or destination hedging becomes valuable","forwardScenario":"War and shipping disruption: Conflict, sanctions, canal disruption, or route risk changes grain, fertilizer, fuel, freight, and protein trade costs.","producerDecision":"Check delivered feed, fertilizer, fuel, freight, and route exposure before holding cattle longer or locking crop-input purchases.","source":{"id":"fao-newsroom","name":"FAO Newsroom","category":"Regional","officialUrl":"https://www.fao.org/newsroom/detail/strait-of-hormuz--time-running-out-to-avert-global-food-security-crisis--fao-warns/en"},"steps":[{"id":"path-north-america-event-fao-newsroom-rss-strait-of-hormuz-time-running-out-to-avert-global-food-security-cri:source","kind":"source","label":"Source","title":"FAO Newsroom","detail":"https://www.fao.org/newsroom/detail/strait-of-hormuz--time-running-out-to-avert-global-food-security-crisis--fao-warns/en"},{"id":"path-north-america-event-fao-newsroom-rss-strait-of-hormuz-time-running-out-to-avert-global-food-security-cri:signal","kind":"signal","label":"Current signal","title":"News/report","detail":"FAO Newsroom published a war, sanctions, or shipping-route item. Read it as a delivered feed, fertilizer, fuel, freight, and buyer-access signal."},{"id":"path-north-america-event-fao-newsroom-rss-strait-of-hormuz-time-running-out-to-avert-global-food-security-cri:driver","kind":"driver","label":"How it affects","title":"Early event awareness before official reports update","detail":"Early event awareness before official reports update: Buyer access, disease movement risk, export demand, feed input cost, weather pressure, and local sale timing"},{"id":"path-north-america-event-fao-newsroom-rss-strait-of-hormuz-time-running-out-to-avert-global-food-security-cri:history","kind":"history","label":"Past pattern","title":"Geopolitical shocks become feed, freight, and basis risk","detail":"Same day to 3 years history usually shows up in Same week to 12 months: Delivered feed and fertilizer become more expensive or less reliable Local basis can diverge from headline futures or export values Local feed substitution, earlier sale timing, or destination hedging becomes valuable"},{"id":"path-north-america-event-fao-newsroom-rss-strait-of-hormuz-time-running-out-to-avert-global-food-security-cri:scenario","kind":"scenario","label":"Forward scenario","title":"War and shipping disruption","detail":"War and shipping disruption: Conflict, sanctions, canal disruption, or route risk changes grain, fertilizer, fuel, freight, and protein trade costs."},{"id":"path-north-america-event-fao-newsroom-rss-strait-of-hormuz-time-running-out-to-avert-global-food-security-cri:action","kind":"action","label":"Producer action","title":"Act now","detail":"Check delivered feed, fertilizer, fuel, freight, and route exposure before holding cattle longer or locking crop-input purchases."}],"evidence":[{"id":"fao-newsroom-rss-strait-of-hormuz-time-running-out-to-avert-global-food-security-crisis-fao-warns-2026-05-26","kind":"event","title":"Strait of Hormuz: Time running out to avert global food security crisis, FAO warns","summary":"Public item selected because war, sanctions, ports, canals, or shipping routes can change delivered feed, fertilizer, fuel, freight, and buyer access: Strait of Hormuz: Time running out to avert global food security crisis, FAO warns","sourceId":"fao-newsroom","sourceName":"FAO Newsroom","sourceUrl":"https://www.fao.org/newsroom/detail/strait-of-hormuz--time-running-out-to-avert-global-food-security-crisis--fao-warns/en","date":"2026-05-26T12:00:00.000Z","confidence":82}],"sourceGraph":[{"id":"gdelt-news-to-market-event-risk","sourceId":"gdelt-global-news","sourceName":"GDELT global event monitor","signal":"Global public news mentions of livestock, feed, dairy, crops, disease, fuel, trade, and policy shocks","driver":"Early event awareness before official reports update","affects":"Buyer access, disease movement risk, export demand, feed input cost, weather pressure, and local sale timing","producerDecision":"Use public event signals as watch items, then confirm with official data before changing cattle, milk, feed, or crop commitments.","lag":"Same day to 8 weeks","confidence":72},{"id":"eia-diesel-to-freight-feed-cost","sourceId":"eia-fuel","sourceName":"U.S. EIA fuel prices","signal":"Weekly U.S. No. 2 diesel retail price","driver":"Freight and feed-delivery cost pressure","affects":"Hay hauling, feed delivery, yardage, crop inputs, feeder bids, and sale timing","producerDecision":"Reprice delivered feed, hay, and cattle hauling before deciding whether extra weight still pays.","lag":"Same week to 8 weeks","confidence":80},{"id":"feed-energy-to-breakeven","sourceId":"world-bank-pink-sheet","sourceName":"World Bank commodity prices","signal":"Beef, energy, fertilizer, and feed commodity prices","driver":"Feed, fertilizer, freight, and pasture input cost","affects":"Backgrounding breakeven, finishing margin, hay cost, and stocking decision","producerDecision":"Reprice the next 50 lb or 25 kg before buying feed or delaying sales.","lag":"1-6 weeks","confidence":80}],"historicalDrivers":[{"id":"geopolitical-shock-to-feed-freight","driver":"Geopolitical shocks become feed, freight, and basis risk","lookbackWindow":"Same day to 3 years","forwardWindow":"Same week to 12 months","lag":"Conflict, sanctions, or shipping-route stress can move fuel, fertilizer, grain, and freight before farmgate cattle or milk prices adjust.","leadingSignals":["Red Sea, Black Sea, canal, port, or border headlines mention grain, fertilizer, fuel, or livestock routes","Freight, fuel, fertilizer, or grain indexes move before delivered feed quotes reset","Destination or route risk weakens the translation from global price to local bid"],"forwardEffects":["Delivered feed and fertilizer become more expensive or less reliable","Local basis can diverge from headline futures or export values","Local feed substitution, earlier sale timing, or destination hedging becomes valuable"],"producerDecision":"Treat global conflict and shipping risk as a delivered-cost problem before changing sale timing, feed coverage, or crop-input purchases.","confidence":79},{"id":"logistics-to-local-basis","driver":"Logistics shocks become local basis gaps","lookbackWindow":"7 days to 3 years","forwardWindow":"Same week to 9 months","lag":"Freight and port disruption can widen local basis before national price series register the stress.","leadingSignals":["Fuel, port, rail, or border news moves before farmgate averages","Delivered feed diverges from board or benchmark price","Destination prices stop translating to local bids"],"forwardEffects":["Cattle, hay, milk, grain, and fertilizer spreads widen by corridor","Local arbitrage opportunities can appear","Remote producers face discount risk even in strong headline markets"],"producerDecision":"Price the delivered destination, not the benchmark, before moving cattle, feed, milk, or crop volume.","confidence":78}],"scenarios":[{"id":"geopolitical-shipping-shock","name":"War and shipping disruption","sector":"feed","defaultIntensity":37,"description":"Conflict, sanctions, canal disruption, or route risk changes grain, fertilizer, fuel, freight, and protein trade costs.","producerDecision":"Before holding cattle for more gain, check whether war or shipping risk has changed delivered feed, fertilizer, freight, or buyer access."},{"id":"port-freight-shock","name":"Port and freight shock","sector":"feed","defaultIntensity":36,"description":"Port congestion, fuel, border friction, or shipping disruption widens the gap between farm price and destination price.","producerDecision":"Before moving cattle, hay, grain, milk, or inputs, test whether freight has already eaten the price signal."},{"id":"feed-cost-spike","name":"Feed cost spike","sector":"feed","defaultIntensity":35,"description":"Corn, hay, soybean meal, fuel, or freight costs rise faster than cattle value.","producerDecision":"Recalculate whether the next gain period is still worth feeding."}],"citationText":"North America: Strait of Hormuz: Time running out to avert global food security crisis, FAO warns connects FAO Newsroom with 3 causal links, 2 historical patterns, 3 scenarios, and 1 evidence items."},{"id":"path-north-america-event-fao-newsroom-rss-strait-of-hormuz-conflict-threatens-global-food-prices-as-fao-warns","type":"decision-trace","regionId":"north-america","regionName":"North America","sectors":["feed","beef","dairy"],"severity":"high","priorityLabel":"Act now","confidence":82,"score":140,"updatedAt":"2026-05-20T12:00:00.000Z","title":"North America: Strait of Hormuz conflict threatens global food prices as FAO warns time is running out","currentSignal":"FAO Newsroom published a war, sanctions, or shipping-route item. Read it as a delivered feed, fertilizer, fuel, freight, and buyer-access signal.","howItAffects":"Early event awareness before official reports update: Buyer access, disease movement risk, export demand, feed input cost, weather pressure, and local sale timing","pastPattern":"Same day to 3 years history usually shows up in Same week to 12 months: Delivered feed and fertilizer become more expensive or less reliable Local basis can diverge from headline futures or export values Local feed substitution, earlier sale timing, or destination hedging becomes valuable","forwardScenario":"War and shipping disruption: Conflict, sanctions, canal disruption, or route risk changes grain, fertilizer, fuel, freight, and protein trade costs.","producerDecision":"Check delivered feed, fertilizer, fuel, freight, and route exposure before holding cattle longer or locking crop-input purchases.","source":{"id":"fao-newsroom","name":"FAO Newsroom","category":"Regional","officialUrl":"https://www.fao.org/newsroom/detail/strait-of-hormuz-conflict-threatens-global-food-prices-as-fao-warns-time-is-running-out/en"},"steps":[{"id":"path-north-america-event-fao-newsroom-rss-strait-of-hormuz-conflict-threatens-global-food-prices-as-fao-warns:source","kind":"source","label":"Source","title":"FAO Newsroom","detail":"https://www.fao.org/newsroom/detail/strait-of-hormuz-conflict-threatens-global-food-prices-as-fao-warns-time-is-running-out/en"},{"id":"path-north-america-event-fao-newsroom-rss-strait-of-hormuz-conflict-threatens-global-food-prices-as-fao-warns:signal","kind":"signal","label":"Current signal","title":"News/report","detail":"FAO Newsroom published a war, sanctions, or shipping-route item. Read it as a delivered feed, fertilizer, fuel, freight, and buyer-access signal."},{"id":"path-north-america-event-fao-newsroom-rss-strait-of-hormuz-conflict-threatens-global-food-prices-as-fao-warns:driver","kind":"driver","label":"How it affects","title":"Early event awareness before official reports update","detail":"Early event awareness before official reports update: Buyer access, disease movement risk, export demand, feed input cost, weather pressure, and local sale timing"},{"id":"path-north-america-event-fao-newsroom-rss-strait-of-hormuz-conflict-threatens-global-food-prices-as-fao-warns:history","kind":"history","label":"Past pattern","title":"Geopolitical shocks become feed, freight, and basis risk","detail":"Same day to 3 years history usually shows up in Same week to 12 months: Delivered feed and fertilizer become more expensive or less reliable Local basis can diverge from headline futures or export values Local feed substitution, earlier sale timing, or destination hedging becomes valuable"},{"id":"path-north-america-event-fao-newsroom-rss-strait-of-hormuz-conflict-threatens-global-food-prices-as-fao-warns:scenario","kind":"scenario","label":"Forward scenario","title":"War and shipping disruption","detail":"War and shipping disruption: Conflict, sanctions, canal disruption, or route risk changes grain, fertilizer, fuel, freight, and protein trade costs."},{"id":"path-north-america-event-fao-newsroom-rss-strait-of-hormuz-conflict-threatens-global-food-prices-as-fao-warns:action","kind":"action","label":"Producer action","title":"Act now","detail":"Check delivered feed, fertilizer, fuel, freight, and route exposure before holding cattle longer or locking crop-input purchases."}],"evidence":[{"id":"fao-newsroom-rss-strait-of-hormuz-conflict-threatens-global-food-prices-as-fao-warns-time-is-running--2026-05-20","kind":"event","title":"Strait of Hormuz conflict threatens global food prices as FAO warns time is running out","summary":"Public item selected because war, sanctions, ports, canals, or shipping routes can change delivered feed, fertilizer, fuel, freight, and buyer access: Strait of Hormuz conflict threatens global food prices as FAO warns time is running out","sourceId":"fao-newsroom","sourceName":"FAO Newsroom","sourceUrl":"https://www.fao.org/newsroom/detail/strait-of-hormuz-conflict-threatens-global-food-prices-as-fao-warns-time-is-running-out/en","date":"2026-05-20T12:00:00.000Z","confidence":82}],"sourceGraph":[{"id":"gdelt-news-to-market-event-risk","sourceId":"gdelt-global-news","sourceName":"GDELT global event monitor","signal":"Global public news mentions of livestock, feed, dairy, crops, disease, fuel, trade, and policy shocks","driver":"Early event awareness before official reports update","affects":"Buyer access, disease movement risk, export demand, feed input cost, weather pressure, and local sale timing","producerDecision":"Use public event signals as watch items, then confirm with official data before changing cattle, milk, feed, or crop commitments.","lag":"Same day to 8 weeks","confidence":72},{"id":"eia-diesel-to-freight-feed-cost","sourceId":"eia-fuel","sourceName":"U.S. EIA fuel prices","signal":"Weekly U.S. No. 2 diesel retail price","driver":"Freight and feed-delivery cost pressure","affects":"Hay hauling, feed delivery, yardage, crop inputs, feeder bids, and sale timing","producerDecision":"Reprice delivered feed, hay, and cattle hauling before deciding whether extra weight still pays.","lag":"Same week to 8 weeks","confidence":80},{"id":"feed-energy-to-breakeven","sourceId":"world-bank-pink-sheet","sourceName":"World Bank commodity prices","signal":"Beef, energy, fertilizer, and feed commodity prices","driver":"Feed, fertilizer, freight, and pasture input cost","affects":"Backgrounding breakeven, finishing margin, hay cost, and stocking decision","producerDecision":"Reprice the next 50 lb or 25 kg before buying feed or delaying sales.","lag":"1-6 weeks","confidence":80}],"historicalDrivers":[{"id":"geopolitical-shock-to-feed-freight","driver":"Geopolitical shocks become feed, freight, and basis risk","lookbackWindow":"Same day to 3 years","forwardWindow":"Same week to 12 months","lag":"Conflict, sanctions, or shipping-route stress can move fuel, fertilizer, grain, and freight before farmgate cattle or milk prices adjust.","leadingSignals":["Red Sea, Black Sea, canal, port, or border headlines mention grain, fertilizer, fuel, or livestock routes","Freight, fuel, fertilizer, or grain indexes move before delivered feed quotes reset","Destination or route risk weakens the translation from global price to local bid"],"forwardEffects":["Delivered feed and fertilizer become more expensive or less reliable","Local basis can diverge from headline futures or export values","Local feed substitution, earlier sale timing, or destination hedging becomes valuable"],"producerDecision":"Treat global conflict and shipping risk as a delivered-cost problem before changing sale timing, feed coverage, or crop-input purchases.","confidence":79},{"id":"logistics-to-local-basis","driver":"Logistics shocks become local basis gaps","lookbackWindow":"7 days to 3 years","forwardWindow":"Same week to 9 months","lag":"Freight and port disruption can widen local basis before national price series register the stress.","leadingSignals":["Fuel, port, rail, or border news moves before farmgate averages","Delivered feed diverges from board or benchmark price","Destination prices stop translating to local bids"],"forwardEffects":["Cattle, hay, milk, grain, and fertilizer spreads widen by corridor","Local arbitrage opportunities can appear","Remote producers face discount risk even in strong headline markets"],"producerDecision":"Price the delivered destination, not the benchmark, before moving cattle, feed, milk, or crop volume.","confidence":78}],"scenarios":[{"id":"geopolitical-shipping-shock","name":"War and shipping disruption","sector":"feed","defaultIntensity":37,"description":"Conflict, sanctions, canal disruption, or route risk changes grain, fertilizer, fuel, freight, and protein trade costs.","producerDecision":"Before holding cattle for more gain, check whether war or shipping risk has changed delivered feed, fertilizer, freight, or buyer access."},{"id":"port-freight-shock","name":"Port and freight shock","sector":"feed","defaultIntensity":36,"description":"Port congestion, fuel, border friction, or shipping disruption widens the gap between farm price and destination price.","producerDecision":"Before moving cattle, hay, grain, milk, or inputs, test whether freight has already eaten the price signal."},{"id":"feed-cost-spike","name":"Feed cost spike","sector":"feed","defaultIntensity":35,"description":"Corn, hay, soybean meal, fuel, or freight costs rise faster than cattle value.","producerDecision":"Recalculate whether the next gain period is still worth feeding."}],"citationText":"North America: Strait of Hormuz conflict threatens global food prices as FAO warns time is running out connects FAO Newsroom with 3 causal links, 2 historical patterns, 3 scenarios, and 1 evidence items."},{"id":"path-north-america-event-fao-newsroom-rss-strait-of-hormuz-crisis-fertilizer-scarcity-will-affect-next-harves","type":"decision-trace","regionId":"north-america","regionName":"North America","sectors":["feed","crops","beef","dairy"],"severity":"high","priorityLabel":"Act now","confidence":82,"score":140,"updatedAt":"2026-05-07T12:00:00.000Z","title":"North America: Strait of Hormuz crisis: Fertilizer scarcity will affect next harvests and food supplies, FAO warns","currentSignal":"FAO Newsroom published a war, sanctions, or shipping-route item. Read it as a delivered feed, fertilizer, fuel, freight, and buyer-access signal.","howItAffects":"Early event awareness before official reports update: Buyer access, disease movement risk, export demand, feed input cost, weather pressure, and local sale timing","pastPattern":"Same day to 3 years history usually shows up in Same week to 12 months: Delivered feed and fertilizer become more expensive or less reliable Local basis can diverge from headline futures or export values Local feed substitution, earlier sale timing, or destination hedging becomes valuable","forwardScenario":"War and shipping disruption: Conflict, sanctions, canal disruption, or route risk changes grain, fertilizer, fuel, freight, and protein trade costs.","producerDecision":"Check delivered feed, fertilizer, fuel, freight, and route exposure before holding cattle longer or locking crop-input purchases.","source":{"id":"fao-newsroom","name":"FAO Newsroom","category":"Regional","officialUrl":"https://www.fao.org/newsroom/detail/strait-of-hormuz-crisis--fertilizer-scarcity-will-affect-next-harvests-and-food-supplies--fao-warns/en"},"steps":[{"id":"path-north-america-event-fao-newsroom-rss-strait-of-hormuz-crisis-fertilizer-scarcity-will-affect-next-harves:source","kind":"source","label":"Source","title":"FAO Newsroom","detail":"https://www.fao.org/newsroom/detail/strait-of-hormuz-crisis--fertilizer-scarcity-will-affect-next-harvests-and-food-supplies--fao-warns/en"},{"id":"path-north-america-event-fao-newsroom-rss-strait-of-hormuz-crisis-fertilizer-scarcity-will-affect-next-harves:signal","kind":"signal","label":"Current signal","title":"News/report","detail":"FAO Newsroom published a war, sanctions, or shipping-route item. Read it as a delivered feed, fertilizer, fuel, freight, and buyer-access signal."},{"id":"path-north-america-event-fao-newsroom-rss-strait-of-hormuz-crisis-fertilizer-scarcity-will-affect-next-harves:driver","kind":"driver","label":"How it affects","title":"Early event awareness before official reports update","detail":"Early event awareness before official reports update: Buyer access, disease movement risk, export demand, feed input cost, weather pressure, and local sale timing"},{"id":"path-north-america-event-fao-newsroom-rss-strait-of-hormuz-crisis-fertilizer-scarcity-will-affect-next-harves:history","kind":"history","label":"Past pattern","title":"Geopolitical shocks become feed, freight, and basis risk","detail":"Same day to 3 years history usually shows up in Same week to 12 months: Delivered feed and fertilizer become more expensive or less reliable Local basis can diverge from headline futures or export values Local feed substitution, earlier sale timing, or destination hedging becomes valuable"},{"id":"path-north-america-event-fao-newsroom-rss-strait-of-hormuz-crisis-fertilizer-scarcity-will-affect-next-harves:scenario","kind":"scenario","label":"Forward scenario","title":"War and shipping disruption","detail":"War and shipping disruption: Conflict, sanctions, canal disruption, or route risk changes grain, fertilizer, fuel, freight, and protein trade costs."},{"id":"path-north-america-event-fao-newsroom-rss-strait-of-hormuz-crisis-fertilizer-scarcity-will-affect-next-harves:action","kind":"action","label":"Producer action","title":"Act now","detail":"Check delivered feed, fertilizer, fuel, freight, and route exposure before holding cattle longer or locking crop-input purchases."}],"evidence":[{"id":"fao-newsroom-rss-strait-of-hormuz-crisis-fertilizer-scarcity-will-affect-next-harvests-and-food-suppl-2026-05-07","kind":"event","title":"Strait of Hormuz crisis: Fertilizer scarcity will affect next harvests and food supplies, FAO warns","summary":"Public item selected because war, sanctions, ports, canals, or shipping routes can change delivered feed, fertilizer, fuel, freight, and buyer access: Strait of Hormuz crisis: Fertilizer scarcity will affect next harvests and food supplies, FAO warns","sourceId":"fao-newsroom","sourceName":"FAO Newsroom","sourceUrl":"https://www.fao.org/newsroom/detail/strait-of-hormuz-crisis--fertilizer-scarcity-will-affect-next-harvests-and-food-supplies--fao-warns/en","date":"2026-05-07T12:00:00.000Z","confidence":82}],"sourceGraph":[{"id":"gdelt-news-to-market-event-risk","sourceId":"gdelt-global-news","sourceName":"GDELT global event monitor","signal":"Global public news mentions of livestock, feed, dairy, crops, disease, fuel, trade, and policy shocks","driver":"Early event awareness before official reports update","affects":"Buyer access, disease movement risk, export demand, feed input cost, weather pressure, and local sale timing","producerDecision":"Use public event signals as watch items, then confirm with official data before changing cattle, milk, feed, or crop commitments.","lag":"Same day to 8 weeks","confidence":72},{"id":"eia-diesel-to-freight-feed-cost","sourceId":"eia-fuel","sourceName":"U.S. EIA fuel prices","signal":"Weekly U.S. No. 2 diesel retail price","driver":"Freight and feed-delivery cost pressure","affects":"Hay hauling, feed delivery, yardage, crop inputs, feeder bids, and sale timing","producerDecision":"Reprice delivered feed, hay, and cattle hauling before deciding whether extra weight still pays.","lag":"Same week to 8 weeks","confidence":80},{"id":"feed-energy-to-breakeven","sourceId":"world-bank-pink-sheet","sourceName":"World Bank commodity prices","signal":"Beef, energy, fertilizer, and feed commodity prices","driver":"Feed, fertilizer, freight, and pasture input cost","affects":"Backgrounding breakeven, finishing margin, hay cost, and stocking decision","producerDecision":"Reprice the next 50 lb or 25 kg before buying feed or delaying sales.","lag":"1-6 weeks","confidence":80}],"historicalDrivers":[{"id":"geopolitical-shock-to-feed-freight","driver":"Geopolitical shocks become feed, freight, and basis risk","lookbackWindow":"Same day to 3 years","forwardWindow":"Same week to 12 months","lag":"Conflict, sanctions, or shipping-route stress can move fuel, fertilizer, grain, and freight before farmgate cattle or milk prices adjust.","leadingSignals":["Red Sea, Black Sea, canal, port, or border headlines mention grain, fertilizer, fuel, or livestock routes","Freight, fuel, fertilizer, or grain indexes move before delivered feed quotes reset","Destination or route risk weakens the translation from global price to local bid"],"forwardEffects":["Delivered feed and fertilizer become more expensive or less reliable","Local basis can diverge from headline futures or export values","Local feed substitution, earlier sale timing, or destination hedging becomes valuable"],"producerDecision":"Treat global conflict and shipping risk as a delivered-cost problem before changing sale timing, feed coverage, or crop-input purchases.","confidence":79},{"id":"logistics-to-local-basis","driver":"Logistics shocks become local basis gaps","lookbackWindow":"7 days to 3 years","forwardWindow":"Same week to 9 months","lag":"Freight and port disruption can widen local basis before national price series register the stress.","leadingSignals":["Fuel, port, rail, or border news moves before farmgate averages","Delivered feed diverges from board or benchmark price","Destination prices stop translating to local bids"],"forwardEffects":["Cattle, hay, milk, grain, and fertilizer spreads widen by corridor","Local arbitrage opportunities can appear","Remote producers face discount risk even in strong headline markets"],"producerDecision":"Price the delivered destination, not the benchmark, before moving cattle, feed, milk, or crop volume.","confidence":78}],"scenarios":[{"id":"geopolitical-shipping-shock","name":"War and shipping disruption","sector":"feed","defaultIntensity":37,"description":"Conflict, sanctions, canal disruption, or route risk changes grain, fertilizer, fuel, freight, and protein trade costs.","producerDecision":"Before holding cattle for more gain, check whether war or shipping risk has changed delivered feed, fertilizer, freight, or buyer access."},{"id":"port-freight-shock","name":"Port and freight shock","sector":"feed","defaultIntensity":36,"description":"Port congestion, fuel, border friction, or shipping disruption widens the gap between farm price and destination price.","producerDecision":"Before moving cattle, hay, grain, milk, or inputs, test whether freight has already eaten the price signal."},{"id":"feed-cost-spike","name":"Feed cost spike","sector":"feed","defaultIntensity":35,"description":"Corn, hay, soybean meal, fuel, or freight costs rise faster than cattle value.","producerDecision":"Recalculate whether the next gain period is still worth feeding."}],"citationText":"North America: Strait of Hormuz crisis: Fertilizer scarcity will affect next harvests and food supplies, FAO warns connects FAO Newsroom with 3 causal links, 2 historical patterns, 3 scenarios, and 1 evidence items."}],"citationText":"North America decision traces summarizes 3 chains from public source to producer action."}}