{"ok":true,"name":"Cattle Market Pulse forecast memory","description":"Region-filtered forecast memory that matches current cattle and farm-market signals to historical lead-lag patterns, stored scenario pressure, run memory, public evidence, and producer actions.","generatedAt":"2026-06-06T22:11:59.219Z","canonicalUrl":"https://cattleweightestimation.com/market-pulse/forecast-memory.json","query":{"region":"north-america","sector":"all","lang":"en","limit":1},"examples":["https://cattleweightestimation.com/market-pulse/forecast-memory.json?region=north-america&sector=beef&lang=en","https://cattleweightestimation.com/market-pulse/forecast-memory.json?region=latin-america&sector=feed&lang=es","https://cattleweightestimation.com/market-pulse/forecast-memory.json?region=latin-america&sector=dairy&lang=pt"],"memory":{"id":"forecast-memory:north-america:all:en","type":"forecast-memory","title":"North America: forecast memory","subtitle":"Matches current signals to historical patterns, scenario pressure, and practical producer actions.","locale":"en","regionId":"north-america","regionName":"North America","sector":"all","generatedAt":"2026-06-06T22:11:59.218Z","snapshotGeneratedAt":"2026-06-06T11:33:23.605Z","updateCadence":"daily","isAccessibleForFree":true,"canonicalDataUrl":"/market-pulse/forecast-memory.json?region=north-america&sector=all&lang=en","summary":{"regions":1,"analogs":1,"actNowCount":1,"watchCount":0,"opportunityCount":0,"historicalDrivers":1,"scenarioModels":1,"scenarioPressureRows":13,"storedRuns":49,"liveObservations":126,"liveDriverImpacts":125,"temporalSignals":2,"marketEvents":86,"sourceFamilies":7,"averageConfidence":92},"topAnalog":{"id":"forecast-memory:north-america:pasture-stress-to-sale-runs:us-drought-monitor-southern-plains-d2-plus-forage-retention-impact","regionId":"north-america","regionName":"North America","priority":"act","score":1967,"confidence":92,"sectors":["beef","dairy","feed","crops"],"sourceIds":["us-drought-monitor","nasa-power","copernicus-cds","bom-climate","brazil-inmet","mexico-siap","gdelt-global-news"],"sourceNames":["U.S. Drought Monitor","NASA POWER","Copernicus Climate Data Store","Australian Bureau of Meteorology","Brazil INMET weather data","Mexico SIAP livestock data"],"sourceGraphEdgeIds":["drought-to-retention","open-meteo-forecast-to-forward-forage"],"historicalDriverIds":["pasture-stress-to-sale-runs"],"scenarioIds":["feed-cost-spike"],"evidenceIds":["us-drought-monitor-southern-plains-d2-plus-forage-retention-impact"],"currentTrigger":{"id":"us-drought-monitor-southern-plains-d2-plus-forage-retention-impact","kind":"impact","title":"Southern Plains severe drought footprint changes forage and retention risk","detail":"52 % D2+ area in the latest U.S. Drought Monitor. D2+ is the official severe-drought footprint to read before assuming pasture, hay, and water pressure stay local.","sourceId":"us-drought-monitor","sourceName":"U.S. Drought Monitor","sourceUrl":"https://www.drought.gov/data-maps-tools/us-drought-monitor","date":"2026-06-06T11:33:23.605Z","confidence":92,"severity":"high"},"historicalPattern":{"driverId":"pasture-stress-to-sale-runs","driver":"Pasture stress becomes sale pressure","lookbackWindow":"30-120 days","forwardWindow":"2-16 weeks","lag":"Pasture stress usually hits feed buying first, sale runs second, and replacement prices last.","leadingSignals":["Soil moisture drops below seasonal median","Pasture condition ratings deteriorate","Hay and supplement quotes firm before auction volume rises"],"forwardEffects":["More calves and cull cows move earlier","Replacement animals face discount risk in dry regions","Feed cost can erase the value of extra gain"],"producerDecision":"Move from calendar-based selling to forage-days and feed-margin selling.","confidence":86},"scenario":{"id":"feed-cost-spike","name":"Feed cost spike","sector":"feed","defaultIntensity":35,"currentPressure":1378,"priorRunDelta":6,"motion":"warming","producerDecision":"Recalculate whether the next gain period is still worth feeding."},"producerAction":"Recount forage and hay inventory now, then compare selling lighter cattle against carrying them through a drought-priced gain period.","chain":[{"id":"pasture-stress-to-sale-runs:us-drought-monitor-southern-plains-d2-plus-forage-retention-impact:trigger","label":"Current signal","title":"Southern Plains severe drought footprint changes forage and retention risk","detail":"52 % D2+ area in the latest U.S. Drought Monitor. D2+ is the official severe-drought footprint to read before assuming pasture, hay, and water pressure stay local."},{"id":"pasture-stress-to-sale-runs:us-drought-monitor-southern-plains-d2-plus-forage-retention-impact:history","label":"Historical pattern","title":"Pasture stress becomes sale pressure","detail":"30-120 days -> 2-16 weeks: Pasture stress usually hits feed buying first, sale runs second, and replacement prices last."},{"id":"pasture-stress-to-sale-runs:us-drought-monitor-southern-plains-d2-plus-forage-retention-impact:lead","label":"Watch next","title":"Soil moisture drops below seasonal median / Pasture condition ratings deteriorate / Hay and supplement quotes firm before auction volume rises","detail":"More calves and cull cows move earlier / Replacement animals face discount risk in dry regions / Feed cost can erase the value of extra gain"},{"id":"pasture-stress-to-sale-runs:us-drought-monitor-southern-plains-d2-plus-forage-retention-impact:scenario","label":"Scenario","title":"Feed cost spike","detail":"Recalculate whether the next gain period is still worth feeding."},{"id":"pasture-stress-to-sale-runs:us-drought-monitor-southern-plains-d2-plus-forage-retention-impact:action","label":"Producer action","title":"Move from calendar-based selling to forage-days and feed-margin selling.","detail":"Recalculate whether the next gain period is still worth feeding."}]},"analogs":[{"id":"forecast-memory:north-america:pasture-stress-to-sale-runs:us-drought-monitor-southern-plains-d2-plus-forage-retention-impact","regionId":"north-america","regionName":"North America","priority":"act","score":1967,"confidence":92,"sectors":["beef","dairy","feed","crops"],"sourceIds":["us-drought-monitor","nasa-power","copernicus-cds","bom-climate","brazil-inmet","mexico-siap","gdelt-global-news"],"sourceNames":["U.S. Drought Monitor","NASA POWER","Copernicus Climate Data Store","Australian Bureau of Meteorology","Brazil INMET weather data","Mexico SIAP livestock data"],"sourceGraphEdgeIds":["drought-to-retention","open-meteo-forecast-to-forward-forage"],"historicalDriverIds":["pasture-stress-to-sale-runs"],"scenarioIds":["feed-cost-spike"],"evidenceIds":["us-drought-monitor-southern-plains-d2-plus-forage-retention-impact"],"currentTrigger":{"id":"us-drought-monitor-southern-plains-d2-plus-forage-retention-impact","kind":"impact","title":"Southern Plains severe drought footprint changes forage and retention risk","detail":"52 % D2+ area in the latest U.S. Drought Monitor. D2+ is the official severe-drought footprint to read before assuming pasture, hay, and water pressure stay local.","sourceId":"us-drought-monitor","sourceName":"U.S. Drought Monitor","sourceUrl":"https://www.drought.gov/data-maps-tools/us-drought-monitor","date":"2026-06-06T11:33:23.605Z","confidence":92,"severity":"high"},"historicalPattern":{"driverId":"pasture-stress-to-sale-runs","driver":"Pasture stress becomes sale pressure","lookbackWindow":"30-120 days","forwardWindow":"2-16 weeks","lag":"Pasture stress usually hits feed buying first, sale runs second, and replacement prices last.","leadingSignals":["Soil moisture drops below seasonal median","Pasture condition ratings deteriorate","Hay and supplement quotes firm before auction volume rises"],"forwardEffects":["More calves and cull cows move earlier","Replacement animals face discount risk in dry regions","Feed cost can erase the value of extra gain"],"producerDecision":"Move from calendar-based selling to forage-days and feed-margin selling.","confidence":86},"scenario":{"id":"feed-cost-spike","name":"Feed cost spike","sector":"feed","defaultIntensity":35,"currentPressure":1378,"priorRunDelta":6,"motion":"warming","producerDecision":"Recalculate whether the next gain period is still worth feeding."},"producerAction":"Recount forage and hay inventory now, then compare selling lighter cattle against carrying them through a drought-priced gain period.","chain":[{"id":"pasture-stress-to-sale-runs:us-drought-monitor-southern-plains-d2-plus-forage-retention-impact:trigger","label":"Current signal","title":"Southern Plains severe drought footprint changes forage and retention risk","detail":"52 % D2+ area in the latest U.S. Drought Monitor. D2+ is the official severe-drought footprint to read before assuming pasture, hay, and water pressure stay local."},{"id":"pasture-stress-to-sale-runs:us-drought-monitor-southern-plains-d2-plus-forage-retention-impact:history","label":"Historical pattern","title":"Pasture stress becomes sale pressure","detail":"30-120 days -> 2-16 weeks: Pasture stress usually hits feed buying first, sale runs second, and replacement prices last."},{"id":"pasture-stress-to-sale-runs:us-drought-monitor-southern-plains-d2-plus-forage-retention-impact:lead","label":"Watch next","title":"Soil moisture drops below seasonal median / Pasture condition ratings deteriorate / Hay and supplement quotes firm before auction volume rises","detail":"More calves and cull cows move earlier / Replacement animals face discount risk in dry regions / Feed cost can erase the value of extra gain"},{"id":"pasture-stress-to-sale-runs:us-drought-monitor-southern-plains-d2-plus-forage-retention-impact:scenario","label":"Scenario","title":"Feed cost spike","detail":"Recalculate whether the next gain period is still worth feeding."},{"id":"pasture-stress-to-sale-runs:us-drought-monitor-southern-plains-d2-plus-forage-retention-impact:action","label":"Producer action","title":"Move from calendar-based selling to forage-days and feed-margin selling.","detail":"Recalculate whether the next gain period is still worth feeding."}]}],"scenarioPressure":[{"scenarioId":"feed-cost-spike","scenarioName":"Feed cost spike","sector":"feed","currentPressure":1378,"priorRunDelta":6,"thirtyDayDelta":null,"ninetyDayDelta":null,"confidence":81,"motion":"warming","producerRead":"Feed cost spike is warming versus the prior stored update. Current pressure uses 404 driver impacts, 79 watched reports, and 0 time signals before changing sale timing, feed coverage, health watch, or margin protection."},{"scenarioId":"crop-yield-shock","scenarioName":"Crop yield shock","sector":"crops","currentPressure":1033,"priorRunDelta":-2,"thirtyDayDelta":null,"ninetyDayDelta":null,"confidence":81,"motion":"cooling","producerRead":"Crop yield shock is cooling versus the prior stored update. Current pressure uses 307 driver impacts, 46 watched reports, and 6 time signals before changing sale timing, feed coverage, health watch, or margin protection."},{"scenarioId":"export-disruption","scenarioName":"Export or border disruption","sector":"beef","currentPressure":800,"priorRunDelta":0,"thirtyDayDelta":null,"ninetyDayDelta":null,"confidence":78,"motion":"steady","producerRead":"Export or border disruption is near the prior stored update. Current pressure uses 242 driver impacts, 32 watched reports, and 1 time signals before changing sale timing, feed coverage, health watch, or margin protection."},{"scenarioId":"drought-shock","scenarioName":"Drought tightens forage","sector":"feed","currentPressure":671,"priorRunDelta":-8,"thirtyDayDelta":null,"ninetyDayDelta":null,"confidence":79,"motion":"cooling","producerRead":"Drought tightens forage is cooling versus the prior stored update. Current pressure uses 205 driver impacts, 18 watched reports, and 6 time signals before changing sale timing, feed coverage, health watch, or margin protection."},{"scenarioId":"milk-margin-squeeze","scenarioName":"Milk margin squeeze","sector":"dairy","currentPressure":451,"priorRunDelta":0,"thirtyDayDelta":null,"ninetyDayDelta":null,"confidence":80,"motion":"steady","producerRead":"Milk margin squeeze is near the prior stored update. Current pressure uses 129 driver impacts, 28 watched reports, and 0 time signals before changing sale timing, feed coverage, health watch, or margin protection."},{"scenarioId":"fertilizer-energy-squeeze","scenarioName":"Fertilizer and energy squeeze","sector":"crops","currentPressure":256,"priorRunDelta":0,"thirtyDayDelta":null,"ninetyDayDelta":null,"confidence":79,"motion":"steady","producerRead":"Fertilizer and energy squeeze is near the prior stored update. Current pressure uses 82 driver impacts, 0 watched reports, and 1 time signals before changing sale timing, feed coverage, health watch, or margin protection."},{"scenarioId":"disease-alert","scenarioName":"Disease alert or movement hold","sector":"animal-health","currentPressure":109,"priorRunDelta":0,"thirtyDayDelta":null,"ninetyDayDelta":null,"confidence":81,"motion":"steady","producerRead":"Disease alert or movement hold is near the prior stored update. Current pressure uses 11 driver impacts, 34 watched reports, and 0 time signals before changing sale timing, feed coverage, health watch, or margin protection."},{"scenarioId":"geopolitical-shipping-shock","scenarioName":"War and shipping disruption","sector":"feed","currentPressure":24,"priorRunDelta":0,"thirtyDayDelta":null,"ninetyDayDelta":null,"confidence":82,"motion":"steady","producerRead":"War and shipping disruption is near the prior stored update. Current pressure uses 0 driver impacts, 8 watched reports, and 0 time signals before changing sale timing, feed coverage, health watch, or margin protection."},{"scenarioId":"port-freight-shock","scenarioName":"Port and freight shock","sector":"feed","currentPressure":24,"priorRunDelta":0,"thirtyDayDelta":null,"ninetyDayDelta":null,"confidence":82,"motion":"steady","producerRead":"Port and freight shock is near the prior stored update. Current pressure uses 0 driver impacts, 8 watched reports, and 0 time signals before changing sale timing, feed coverage, health watch, or margin protection."},{"scenarioId":"credit-interest-squeeze","scenarioName":"Credit and interest squeeze","sector":"beef","currentPressure":0,"priorRunDelta":0,"thirtyDayDelta":null,"ninetyDayDelta":null,"confidence":0,"motion":"steady","producerRead":"Credit and interest squeeze is near the prior stored update. Current pressure uses 0 driver impacts, 0 watched reports, and 0 time signals before changing sale timing, feed coverage, health watch, or margin protection."},{"scenarioId":"heat-stress-milk-loss","scenarioName":"Heat stress cuts milk and gain","sector":"dairy","currentPressure":0,"priorRunDelta":0,"thirtyDayDelta":null,"ninetyDayDelta":null,"confidence":0,"motion":"steady","producerRead":"Heat stress cuts milk and gain is near the prior stored update. Current pressure uses 0 driver impacts, 0 watched reports, and 0 time signals before changing sale timing, feed coverage, health watch, or margin protection."},{"scenarioId":"policy-subsidy-rule-change","scenarioName":"Policy or subsidy rule change","sector":"crops","currentPressure":0,"priorRunDelta":0,"thirtyDayDelta":null,"ninetyDayDelta":null,"confidence":0,"motion":"steady","producerRead":"Policy or subsidy rule change is near the prior stored update. Current pressure uses 0 driver impacts, 0 watched reports, and 0 time signals before changing sale timing, feed coverage, health watch, or margin protection."},{"scenarioId":"water-restriction-shock","scenarioName":"Water restriction shock","sector":"crops","currentPressure":0,"priorRunDelta":0,"thirtyDayDelta":null,"ninetyDayDelta":null,"confidence":0,"motion":"steady","producerRead":"Water restriction shock is near the prior stored update. Current pressure uses 0 driver impacts, 0 watched reports, and 0 time signals before changing sale timing, feed coverage, health watch, or margin protection."}],"runMemory":{"currentRunAt":"2026-06-06T11:33:23.605Z","previousRunAt":"2026-06-06T11:24:58.487Z","storedRuns":49,"regionEvidence":{"current":126,"previous":126,"absolute":0,"percent":0},"scenarioPressureRows":13,"graphEdges":{"current":23662,"previous":23672,"absolute":-10},"marketEvents":{"current":189,"previous":190,"absolute":-1}},"dataGaps":[{"id":"licensed-futures","severity":"medium","sourceIds":["cme-livestock"],"producerImpact":"Futures and options curves need licensed data or delayed/public settlement fallback before daily hedge timing can be trusted."},{"id":"wahis-disease-event-parser","severity":"high","sourceIds":["woah-wahis","argentina-senasa"],"producerImpact":"Country-level disease and movement alerts need broader same-day coverage outside the U.S. so animal movement risk is visible before price access changes."},{"id":"regional-price-connectors","severity":"high","sourceIds":["mexico-sniim","argentina-bcr","uruguay-inac"],"producerImpact":"More regional live-price coverage is needed beyond current U.S., Brazil, Mexico, EU dairy, and Australian saleyard markets so local sale timing becomes daily-useful."}],"citationText":"Cattle Market Pulse Forecast Memory for North America matches 1 current signals to 1 historical patterns and 13 stored scenario readings."},"summary":{"regions":1,"analogs":1,"actNowCount":1,"watchCount":0,"opportunityCount":0,"historicalDrivers":1,"scenarioModels":1,"scenarioPressureRows":13,"storedRuns":49,"liveObservations":126,"liveDriverImpacts":125,"temporalSignals":2,"marketEvents":86,"sourceFamilies":7,"averageConfidence":92}}