{"name":"Cattle Market Pulse geo workbench","description":"Selected-market intelligence workbench for cattle, dairy, feed, crops, weather, disease, trade, logistics, and farm decisions. It returns map nodes, coordinates, evidence, source families, local market links, historical drivers, scenarios, a signal-to-action chain, and a small graph.","generatedAt":"2026-06-06T22:13:56.784Z","snapshotGeneratedAt":"2026-06-06T11:33:23.605Z","snapshotWindow":{"startDate":"2026-05-28","endDate":"2026-06-03"},"updateCadence":"daily","isAccessibleForFree":true,"canonicalUrl":"https://cattleweightestimation.com/market-pulse/geo-workbench.json","filters":{"region":"north-america","geoNode":"southern-plains","sector":"all","lang":"en"},"queryExamples":["https://cattleweightestimation.com/market-pulse/geo-workbench.json?region=latin-america&geoNode=mato-grosso&sector=beef&lang=pt","https://cattleweightestimation.com/market-pulse/geo-workbench.json?region=latin-america&geoNode=northern-mexico&sector=feed&lang=es","https://cattleweightestimation.com/market-pulse/geo-workbench.json?region=oceania&geoNode=queensland&sector=beef&lang=en"],"workbench":{"id":"geo-workbench-north-america-southern-plains-all-en","type":"geo-market-workbench","locale":"en","regionId":"north-america","regionName":"North America","geoNodeId":"southern-plains","generatedAt":"2026-06-06T22:13:56.784Z","snapshotGeneratedAt":"2026-06-06T11:33:23.605Z","snapshotWindow":{"startDate":"2026-05-28","endDate":"2026-06-03"},"updateCadence":"daily","isAccessibleForFree":true,"canonicalDataUrl":"https://cattleweightestimation.com/market-pulse/geo-workbench.json?region=north-america&geoNode=southern-plains&sector=all&lang=en","canonicalMarkdownUrl":"https://cattleweightestimation.com/market-pulse/geo-workbench.md?region=north-america&geoNode=southern-plains&sector=all&lang=en","summary":{"mapNodes":2,"selectedEvidenceItems":24,"observations":106,"driverImpacts":125,"marketEvents":84,"causalPaths":55,"sourceFamilies":14,"localMarkets":14,"sourceTargets":18,"historicalDrivers":8,"scenarios":8,"totalLocalMarketNodes":515,"totalMappedPublicSeries":302037,"sourceDiscoveryTargets":4017,"liveConnectorFamilies":43},"selectedMarket":{"id":"southern-plains","name":"Southern Plains","country":"United States","coordinates":{"latitude":35.5,"longitude":-99.5},"marketRole":"Feedlot, fed cattle, drought, and feed basis node","dominantSectors":["beef","feed","crops"],"risk":68,"opportunity":77,"primaryDriver":"Feed cost and drought","watchSignal":"Feeder bids vs corn and hay basis"},"mapNodes":[{"id":"southern-plains","name":"Southern Plains","country":"United States","coordinates":{"latitude":35.5,"longitude":-99.5},"risk":68,"opportunity":77,"evidenceCount":274,"sourceFamilies":18,"scenarios":8,"producerAction":"Reprice the next feed turn now: compare local corn, hay, protein, freight, and cattle bids before holding weight or leaving ration coverage open."},{"id":"canadian-prairies","name":"Canadian Prairies","country":"Canada","coordinates":{"latitude":52.1,"longitude":-106.7},"risk":54,"opportunity":69,"evidenceCount":274,"sourceFamilies":18,"scenarios":8,"producerAction":"Use this as the slow baseline before changing cattle, dairy, feed, or crop plans on a short-term headline."}],"decisionBrief":{"id":"geo-decision-southern-plains","title":"Southern Plains: Sell or hold","summary":"274 evidence links across 18 source families are moving the Southern Plains read. 333 $/ton in the USDA ERS Feed Grains Database. This is an official feed, forage, and byproduct-cost input for cattle breakevens.","producerDecision":"Reprice the next feed turn now: compare local corn, hay, protein, freight, and cattle bids before holding weight or leaving ration coverage open.","watchNext":"Rainfall is close to the recent pace, so watch heat, water, and feed cost before changing sale timing.","scenarioRead":"Most connected scenario: Feed cost spike. Stress-test it against today before changing local bids, feed cover, or movement timing.","severity":"high","confidence":83,"score":3219,"evidenceCount":274,"metrics":[{"id":"usda-nass-cattle-all-feedlot-cattle-2026-01-30","label":"U.S. all-feedlot cattle on feed","value":"13.8 million head","sourceId":"usda-nass","sourceName":"USDA NASS ESMIS","confidence":86,"date":"2026-01-30"},{"id":"usda-nass-cattle-on-feed-feedlot-inventory-2026-05-22","label":"U.S. cattle on feed","value":"11.6 million head","sourceId":"usda-nass","sourceName":"USDA NASS ESMIS","confidence":86,"date":"2026-05-22"},{"id":"usda-nass-crop-progress-corn-emerged-2026-06-01","label":"U.S. corn emerged progress","value":"76 %","sourceId":"usda-nass","sourceName":"USDA NASS ESMIS","confidence":86,"date":"2026-06-01"},{"id":"usda-nass-crop-progress-corn-good-excellent-2026-06-01","label":"U.S. corn good/excellent","value":"67 %","sourceId":"usda-nass","sourceName":"USDA NASS ESMIS","confidence":86,"date":"2026-06-01"},{"id":"usda-nass-crop-progress-corn-planted-2026-06-01","label":"U.S. corn planted progress","value":"93 %","sourceId":"usda-nass","sourceName":"USDA NASS ESMIS","confidence":86,"date":"2026-06-01"},{"id":"usda-nass-cattle-on-feed-placements-2026-05-22","label":"U.S. feedlot placements","value":"1.7 million head","sourceId":"usda-nass","sourceName":"USDA NASS ESMIS","confidence":86,"date":"2026-05-22"}],"drivers":[{"id":"usda-ers-feed-grains-soybean-meal-wholesale-feed-margin-impact","kind":"impact","label":"Soybean meal wholesale price changes feed-margin pressure","detail":"333 $/ton in the USDA ERS Feed Grains Database. This is an official feed, forage, and byproduct-cost input for cattle breakevens.","severity":"medium","confidence":85,"sourceIds":["usda-ers-feed-grains"]},{"id":"usda-ers-feed-grains-steer-heifer-feed-ratio-feed-margin-impact","kind":"impact","label":"Steer and heifer-feed ratio changes feed-margin pressure","detail":"56 bu/cwt in the USDA ERS Feed Grains Database. This is an official feed, forage, and byproduct-cost input for cattle breakevens.","severity":"medium","confidence":88,"sourceIds":["usda-ers-feed-grains"]},{"id":"fas-psd-ca-soybean-meal-feed-balance-sheet-impact","kind":"impact","label":"Canada PSD soybean meal feed balance updates the long-cycle supply read","detail":"2,345 thousand mt in USDA FAS PSD for Canada. The balance sheet is +0.2% versus 2025, so read it against local prices instead of treating daily headlines as isolated events.","severity":"low","confidence":87,"sourceIds":["usda-fas"]},{"id":"nasa-power-southern-plains-rainfall-baseline","kind":"temporal-signal","label":"Southern Plains rainfall against the prior 30 days","detail":"Rainfall is close to the recent pace, so watch heat, water, and feed cost before changing sale timing.","severity":"medium","confidence":82,"sourceIds":["nasa-power"]},{"id":"usgs-water-southern-plains-30d-baseline","kind":"temporal-signal","label":"Southern Plains streamflow against the 30-day baseline","detail":"Measured water is above baseline, but forage response and heat still decide whether extra carrying days pay.","severity":"low","confidence":80,"sourceIds":["usgs-water"]},{"id":"google-news-rss-global-feed-trade-consumers-keep-buying-beef-despite-record-prices-as-drought-expands-across-cattle-co-2026-05-22","kind":"event","label":"Consumers Keep Buying Beef Despite Record Prices as Drought Expands Across Cattle Country - RFD-TV","detail":"Convert the signal into forage days, water checks, and a sale-or-hold threshold.","severity":"medium","confidence":78,"sourceIds":["google-news-rss"]}]},"evidence":[{"id":"us-drought-monitor-southern-plains-d2-plus-forage-retention-impact","kind":"impact","title":"Southern Plains severe drought footprint changes forage and retention risk","detail":"52 % D2+ area in the latest U.S. Drought Monitor. D2+ is the official severe-drought footprint to read before assuming pasture, hay, and water pressure stay local.","producerAction":"Recount forage and hay inventory now, then compare selling lighter cattle against carrying them through a drought-priced gain period.","sourceId":"us-drought-monitor","sourceName":"U.S. Drought Monitor","sourceUrl":"https://www.drought.gov/data-maps-tools/us-drought-monitor","confidence":92,"severity":"high","date":null,"sectors":["beef","dairy","feed"]},{"id":"us-drought-monitor-oklahoma-d2-plus-forage-retention-impact","kind":"impact","title":"Oklahoma severe drought footprint changes forage and retention risk","detail":"46 % D2+ area in the latest U.S. Drought Monitor. D2+ is the official severe-drought footprint to read before assuming pasture, hay, and water pressure stay local.","producerAction":"Recount forage and hay inventory now, then compare selling lighter cattle against carrying them through a drought-priced gain period.","sourceId":"us-drought-monitor","sourceName":"U.S. Drought Monitor","sourceUrl":"https://www.drought.gov/data-maps-tools/us-drought-monitor","confidence":91,"severity":"high","date":null,"sectors":["beef","dairy","feed"]},{"id":"us-drought-monitor-nebraska-d2-plus-forage-retention-impact","kind":"impact","title":"Nebraska severe drought footprint changes forage and retention risk","detail":"75 % D2+ area in the latest U.S. Drought Monitor. D2+ is the official severe-drought footprint to read before assuming pasture, hay, and water pressure stay local.","producerAction":"Recount forage and hay inventory now, then compare selling lighter cattle against carrying them through a drought-priced gain period.","sourceId":"us-drought-monitor","sourceName":"U.S. Drought Monitor","sourceUrl":"https://www.drought.gov/data-maps-tools/us-drought-monitor","confidence":91,"severity":"high","date":null,"sectors":["beef","dairy","feed"]},{"id":"us-drought-monitor-colorado-d2-plus-forage-retention-impact","kind":"impact","title":"Colorado severe drought footprint changes forage and retention risk","detail":"76 % D2+ area in the latest U.S. Drought Monitor. D2+ is the official severe-drought footprint to read before assuming pasture, hay, and water pressure stay local.","producerAction":"Recount forage and hay inventory now, then compare selling lighter cattle against carrying them through a drought-priced gain period.","sourceId":"us-drought-monitor","sourceName":"U.S. Drought Monitor","sourceUrl":"https://www.drought.gov/data-maps-tools/us-drought-monitor","confidence":91,"severity":"high","date":null,"sectors":["beef","dairy","feed"]},{"id":"us-drought-monitor-new-mexico-d2-plus-forage-retention-impact","kind":"impact","title":"New Mexico severe drought footprint changes forage and retention risk","detail":"85 % D2+ area in the latest U.S. Drought Monitor. D2+ is the official severe-drought footprint to read before assuming pasture, hay, and water pressure stay local.","producerAction":"Recount forage and hay inventory now, then compare selling lighter cattle against carrying them through a drought-priced gain period.","sourceId":"us-drought-monitor","sourceName":"U.S. Drought Monitor","sourceUrl":"https://www.drought.gov/data-maps-tools/us-drought-monitor","confidence":91,"severity":"high","date":null,"sectors":["beef","dairy","feed"]},{"id":"usda-nass-crop-progress-pasture-good-excellent-2026-06-01-official-report-impact","kind":"impact","title":"U.S. pasture good/excellent changes the official crop progress read","detail":"30 % in the 2026-06-01 USDA NASS Crop Progress; -12.0 points versus last year. This is an official supply, feed, dairy, or pasture signal to read before treating local prices as isolated.","producerAction":"Move this NASS read into the feed plan now: count forage days, price hay and grain, then compare selling lighter cattle against buying another gain period.","sourceId":"usda-nass","sourceName":"USDA NASS QuickStats and ESMIS reports","sourceUrl":"https://esmis.nal.usda.gov/","confidence":91,"severity":"high","date":null,"sectors":["feed","crops","beef","dairy"]},{"id":"usda-nass-crop-progress-pasture-poor-very-poor-2026-06-01-official-report-impact","kind":"impact","title":"U.S. pasture poor/very poor changes the official crop progress read","detail":"42 % in the 2026-06-01 USDA NASS Crop Progress; 42.0% of selected-state pasture is poor or very poor. This is an official supply, feed, dairy, or pasture signal to read before treating local prices as isolated.","producerAction":"Move this NASS read into the feed plan now: count forage days, price hay and grain, then compare selling lighter cattle against buying another gain period.","sourceId":"usda-nass","sourceName":"USDA NASS QuickStats and ESMIS reports","sourceUrl":"https://esmis.nal.usda.gov/","confidence":91,"severity":"high","date":null,"sectors":["feed","crops","beef","dairy"]},{"id":"path-north-america-impact-usda-nass-crop-progress-pasture-good-excellent-2026-06-01-official-report-impact","kind":"causal-path","title":"North America: U.S. pasture good/excellent changes the official crop progress read","detail":"Herd cycle, feeder supply, and feed availability: Replacement strategy, retained heifers, and forward feeder supply","producerAction":"Move this NASS read into the feed plan now: count forage days, price hay and grain, then compare selling lighter cattle against buying another gain period.","sourceId":"usda-nass","sourceName":"USDA NASS QuickStats and ESMIS reports","sourceUrl":"https://esmis.nal.usda.gov/","confidence":91,"severity":"high","date":"2026-06-06T11:37:42.823Z","sectors":["feed","crops","beef","dairy"]},{"id":"path-north-america-impact-usda-nass-crop-progress-pasture-poor-very-poor-2026-06-01-official-report-impact","kind":"causal-path","title":"North America: U.S. pasture poor/very poor changes the official crop progress read","detail":"Herd cycle, feeder supply, and feed availability: Replacement strategy, retained heifers, and forward feeder supply","producerAction":"Move this NASS read into the feed plan now: count forage days, price hay and grain, then compare selling lighter cattle against buying another gain period.","sourceId":"usda-nass","sourceName":"USDA NASS QuickStats and ESMIS reports","sourceUrl":"https://esmis.nal.usda.gov/","confidence":91,"severity":"high","date":"2026-06-06T11:37:42.823Z","sectors":["feed","crops","beef","dairy"]},{"id":"usda-wasde-us-corn-stocks-monthly-balance-impact","kind":"impact","title":"U.S. corn ending stocks changes the monthly feed and supply read","detail":"1,957 million bushels in the May 2026 WASDE for 2026/27; -8.6% versus 2025/26. This is the official monthly bridge from crop/feed balance to cattle, milk, and sale timing.","producerAction":"Put the WASDE revision beside local corn, meal, hay, freight, and weather before buying feed, buying feeders, or holding cattle for more gain.","sourceId":"usda-wasde","sourceName":"USDA WASDE historical data","sourceUrl":"https://www.usda.gov/historical-wasde-report-data","confidence":90,"severity":"high","date":null,"sectors":["feed","beef","dairy","crops"]},{"id":"path-north-america-impact-open-meteo-water-demand-southern-plains-water-heat-impact","kind":"causal-path","title":"North America: Southern Plains 7-day water demand forecast: heat and water demand watch","detail":"Forward pasture, heat, water, and forage pressure: Sale timing, feed coverage, water checks, milk yield, weight gain, and crop-feed risk","producerAction":"Move water checks, shade, transport timing, and dairy heat-abatement ahead of the forecast peak before assuming cattle will keep eating and gaining normally.","sourceId":"open-meteo-forecast","sourceName":"Open-Meteo global weather forecast","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","confidence":88,"severity":"high","date":"2026-06-06T11:37:42.824Z","sectors":["beef","dairy","feed","crops"]},{"id":"usda-nass-cattle-on-feed-feedlot-inventory-2026-05-22","kind":"observation","title":"U.S. cattle on feed","detail":"2026-05-22 NASS Cattle on Feed: U.S. cattle on feed is 11.6 million head; +2.0% versus the prior period. Put it beside local corn, hay, pasture, freight, and weather before changing feed coverage, buying feeders, or holding cattle for more gain.","producerAction":"Feeder bids vs corn and hay basis","sourceId":"usda-nass","sourceName":"USDA NASS ESMIS","sourceUrl":"https://esmis.nal.usda.gov/sites/default/release-files/795913/cofd0526.txt","confidence":86,"severity":"high","date":"2026-05-22","sectors":["beef","dairy","feed"]},{"id":"usda-nass-cattle-on-feed-placements-2026-05-22","kind":"observation","title":"U.S. feedlot placements","detail":"2026-05-22 NASS Cattle on Feed: U.S. feedlot placements is 1.7 million head; +6.0% versus the prior period. Put it beside local corn, hay, pasture, freight, and weather before changing feed coverage, buying feeders, or holding cattle for more gain.","producerAction":"Feeder bids vs corn and hay basis","sourceId":"usda-nass","sourceName":"USDA NASS ESMIS","sourceUrl":"https://esmis.nal.usda.gov/sites/default/release-files/795913/cofd0526.txt","confidence":86,"severity":"high","date":"2026-05-22","sectors":["beef","dairy","feed"]},{"id":"usda-nass-cattle-all-feedlot-cattle-2026-01-30","kind":"observation","title":"U.S. all-feedlot cattle on feed","detail":"2026-01-30 NASS Cattle: U.S. all-feedlot cattle on feed is 13.8 million head; -3.0% versus the prior period. Put it beside local corn, hay, pasture, freight, and weather before changing feed coverage, buying feeders, or holding cattle for more gain.","producerAction":"Feeder bids vs corn and hay basis","sourceId":"usda-nass","sourceName":"USDA NASS ESMIS","sourceUrl":"https://esmis.nal.usda.gov/sites/default/release-files/795748/catl0126.txt","confidence":86,"severity":"high","date":"2026-01-30","sectors":["beef","dairy","feed"]},{"id":"usda-nass-crop-progress-corn-planted-2026-06-01","kind":"observation","title":"U.S. corn planted progress","detail":"2026-06-01 NASS Crop Progress: U.S. corn planted progress is 93 %; +1.0 points versus the five-year average. Put it beside local corn, hay, pasture, freight, and weather before changing feed coverage, buying feeders, or holding cattle for more gain.","producerAction":"Feeder bids vs corn and hay basis","sourceId":"usda-nass","sourceName":"USDA NASS ESMIS","sourceUrl":"https://esmis.nal.usda.gov/sites/default/release-files/795928/prog2226.txt","confidence":86,"severity":"high","date":"2026-06-01","sectors":["beef","dairy","feed"]},{"id":"usda-nass-crop-progress-corn-emerged-2026-06-01","kind":"observation","title":"U.S. corn emerged progress","detail":"2026-06-01 NASS Crop Progress: U.S. corn emerged progress is 76 %; +2.0 points versus the five-year average. Put it beside local corn, hay, pasture, freight, and weather before changing feed coverage, buying feeders, or holding cattle for more gain.","producerAction":"Feeder bids vs corn and hay basis","sourceId":"usda-nass","sourceName":"USDA NASS ESMIS","sourceUrl":"https://esmis.nal.usda.gov/sites/default/release-files/795928/prog2226.txt","confidence":86,"severity":"high","date":"2026-06-01","sectors":["beef","dairy","feed"]},{"id":"usda-nass-crop-progress-corn-good-excellent-2026-06-01","kind":"observation","title":"U.S. corn good/excellent","detail":"2026-06-01 NASS Crop Progress: U.S. corn good/excellent is 67 %; -2.0 points versus last year. Put it beside local corn, hay, pasture, freight, and weather before changing feed coverage, buying feeders, or holding cattle for more gain.","producerAction":"Feeder bids vs corn and hay basis","sourceId":"usda-nass","sourceName":"USDA NASS ESMIS","sourceUrl":"https://esmis.nal.usda.gov/sites/default/release-files/795928/prog2226.txt","confidence":86,"severity":"high","date":"2026-06-01","sectors":["beef","dairy","feed"]},{"id":"usda-nass-crop-progress-pasture-good-excellent-2026-06-01","kind":"observation","title":"U.S. pasture good/excellent","detail":"2026-06-01 NASS Crop Progress: U.S. pasture good/excellent is 30 %; -12.0 points versus last year. Put it beside local corn, hay, pasture, freight, and weather before changing feed coverage, buying feeders, or holding cattle for more gain.","producerAction":"Feeder bids vs corn and hay basis","sourceId":"usda-nass","sourceName":"USDA NASS ESMIS","sourceUrl":"https://esmis.nal.usda.gov/sites/default/release-files/795928/prog2226.txt","confidence":86,"severity":"high","date":"2026-06-01","sectors":["beef","dairy","feed"]},{"id":"usda-nass-crop-progress-pasture-poor-very-poor-2026-06-01","kind":"observation","title":"U.S. pasture poor/very poor","detail":"2026-06-01 NASS Crop Progress: U.S. pasture poor/very poor is 42 %; 42.0% of selected-state pasture is poor or very poor. Put it beside local corn, hay, pasture, freight, and weather before changing feed coverage, buying feeders, or holding cattle for more gain.","producerAction":"Feeder bids vs corn and hay basis","sourceId":"usda-nass","sourceName":"USDA NASS ESMIS","sourceUrl":"https://esmis.nal.usda.gov/sites/default/release-files/795928/prog2226.txt","confidence":86,"severity":"high","date":"2026-06-01","sectors":["beef","dairy","feed"]},{"id":"path-north-america-impact-cftc-cot-corn-hedge-margin-impact","kind":"causal-path","title":"North America: Corn COT positioning changes hedge and feed-risk timing","detail":"Speculative positioning and commercial hedge pressure: Hedge timing, basis risk, feeder bids, feed coverage, and retained-ownership risk","producerAction":"Use the COT feed read with local corn, hay, freight, and weather before delaying ration coverage or holding cattle for extra gain.","sourceId":"cftc-cot","sourceName":"CFTC Commitments of Traders","sourceUrl":"https://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/index.htm","confidence":86,"severity":"high","date":"2026-06-06T11:37:42.824Z","sectors":["feed","crops","beef","dairy"]},{"id":"path-north-america-impact-usda-esr-sorghum-weekly-exports-buyer-pull-impact","kind":"causal-path","title":"North America: Sorghum export pull weekly exports changed weekly buyer pull","detail":"Export buyer pull before customs data confirms it: Beef cutout support, grain basis, local processor bids, and feed ingredient demand","producerAction":"Check delivered feed and basis before buying feeders, holding cattle for more weight, or leaving protein needs uncovered.","sourceId":"usda-esr","sourceName":"USDA Export Sales Reporting","sourceUrl":"https://apps.fas.usda.gov/export-sales/esrd1.html","confidence":84,"severity":"high","date":"2026-06-06T11:37:42.824Z","sectors":["feed","crops","beef","dairy"]},{"id":"fao-newsroom-rss-strait-of-hormuz-crisis-fertilizer-scarcity-will-affect-next-harvests-and-food-suppl-2026-05-07","kind":"market-event","title":"Strait of Hormuz crisis: Fertilizer scarcity will affect next harvests and food supplies, FAO warns","detail":"FAO Newsroom published a war, sanctions, or shipping-route item. Read it as a delivered feed, fertilizer, fuel, freight, and buyer-access signal.","producerAction":"Check delivered feed, fertilizer, fuel, freight, and route exposure before holding cattle longer or locking crop-input purchases.","sourceId":"fao-newsroom","sourceName":"FAO Newsroom","sourceUrl":"https://www.fao.org/newsroom/detail/strait-of-hormuz-crisis--fertilizer-scarcity-will-affect-next-harvests-and-food-supplies--fao-warns/en","confidence":82,"severity":"high","date":"2026-05-07T12:00:00.000Z","sectors":["feed","crops","beef","dairy"]},{"id":"path-north-america-event-fao-newsroom-rss-strait-of-hormuz-time-running-out-to-avert-global-food-security-cri","kind":"causal-path","title":"North America: Strait of Hormuz: Time running out to avert global food security crisis, FAO warns","detail":"Early event awareness before official reports update: Buyer access, disease movement risk, export demand, feed input cost, weather pressure, and local sale timing","producerAction":"Check delivered feed, fertilizer, fuel, freight, and route exposure before holding cattle longer or locking crop-input purchases.","sourceId":"fao-newsroom","sourceName":"FAO Newsroom","sourceUrl":"https://www.fao.org/newsroom/detail/strait-of-hormuz--time-running-out-to-avert-global-food-security-crisis--fao-warns/en","confidence":82,"severity":"high","date":"2026-05-26T12:00:00.000Z","sectors":["feed","beef","dairy"]},{"id":"path-north-america-event-fao-newsroom-rss-strait-of-hormuz-conflict-threatens-global-food-prices-as-fao-warns","kind":"causal-path","title":"North America: Strait of Hormuz conflict threatens global food prices as FAO warns time is running out","detail":"Early event awareness before official reports update: Buyer access, disease movement risk, export demand, feed input cost, weather pressure, and local sale timing","producerAction":"Check delivered feed, fertilizer, fuel, freight, and route exposure before holding cattle longer or locking crop-input purchases.","sourceId":"fao-newsroom","sourceName":"FAO Newsroom","sourceUrl":"https://www.fao.org/newsroom/detail/strait-of-hormuz-conflict-threatens-global-food-prices-as-fao-warns-time-is-running-out/en","confidence":82,"severity":"high","date":"2026-05-20T12:00:00.000Z","sectors":["feed","beef","dairy"]}],"actionChain":{"currentSignal":"FAO Newsroom published a war, sanctions, or shipping-route item. Read it as a delivered feed, fertilizer, fuel, freight, and buyer-access signal.","marketEffect":"Early event awareness before official reports update: Buyer access, disease movement risk, export demand, feed input cost, weather pressure, and local sale timing","pastPattern":"Same day to 3 years history usually shows up in Same week to 12 months: Delivered feed and fertilizer become more expensive or less reliable Local basis can diverge from headline futures or export values Local feed substitution, earlier sale timing, or destination hedging becomes valuable","forwardScenario":"War and shipping disruption: Conflict, sanctions, canal disruption, or route risk changes grain, fertilizer, fuel, freight, and protein trade costs.","producerAction":"Check delivered feed, fertilizer, fuel, freight, and route exposure before holding cattle longer or locking crop-input purchases."},"causalPaths":[{"id":"path-north-america-event-fao-newsroom-rss-strait-of-hormuz-time-running-out-to-avert-global-food-security-cri","title":"North America: Strait of Hormuz: Time running out to avert global food security crisis, FAO warns","currentSignal":"FAO Newsroom published a war, sanctions, or shipping-route item. Read it as a delivered feed, fertilizer, fuel, freight, and buyer-access signal.","marketEffect":"Early event awareness before official reports update: Buyer access, disease movement risk, export demand, feed input cost, weather pressure, and local sale timing","pastPattern":"Same day to 3 years history usually shows up in Same week to 12 months: Delivered feed and fertilizer become more expensive or less reliable Local basis can diverge from headline futures or export values Local feed substitution, earlier sale timing, or destination hedging becomes valuable","forwardScenario":"War and shipping disruption: Conflict, sanctions, canal disruption, or route risk changes grain, fertilizer, fuel, freight, and protein trade costs.","producerDecision":"Check delivered feed, fertilizer, fuel, freight, and route exposure before holding cattle longer or locking crop-input purchases.","sourceId":"fao-newsroom","sourceName":"FAO Newsroom","confidence":82,"severity":"high","sectors":["feed","beef","dairy"]},{"id":"path-north-america-event-fao-newsroom-rss-strait-of-hormuz-conflict-threatens-global-food-prices-as-fao-warns","title":"North America: Strait of Hormuz conflict threatens global food prices as FAO warns time is running out","currentSignal":"FAO Newsroom published a war, sanctions, or shipping-route item. Read it as a delivered feed, fertilizer, fuel, freight, and buyer-access signal.","marketEffect":"Early event awareness before official reports update: Buyer access, disease movement risk, export demand, feed input cost, weather pressure, and local sale timing","pastPattern":"Same day to 3 years history usually shows up in Same week to 12 months: Delivered feed and fertilizer become more expensive or less reliable Local basis can diverge from headline futures or export values Local feed substitution, earlier sale timing, or destination hedging becomes valuable","forwardScenario":"War and shipping disruption: Conflict, sanctions, canal disruption, or route risk changes grain, fertilizer, fuel, freight, and protein trade costs.","producerDecision":"Check delivered feed, fertilizer, fuel, freight, and route exposure before holding cattle longer or locking crop-input purchases.","sourceId":"fao-newsroom","sourceName":"FAO Newsroom","confidence":82,"severity":"high","sectors":["feed","beef","dairy"]},{"id":"path-north-america-event-fao-newsroom-rss-strait-of-hormuz-crisis-fertilizer-scarcity-will-affect-next-harves","title":"North America: Strait of Hormuz crisis: Fertilizer scarcity will affect next harvests and food supplies, FAO warns","currentSignal":"FAO Newsroom published a war, sanctions, or shipping-route item. Read it as a delivered feed, fertilizer, fuel, freight, and buyer-access signal.","marketEffect":"Early event awareness before official reports update: Buyer access, disease movement risk, export demand, feed input cost, weather pressure, and local sale timing","pastPattern":"Same day to 3 years history usually shows up in Same week to 12 months: Delivered feed and fertilizer become more expensive or less reliable Local basis can diverge from headline futures or export values Local feed substitution, earlier sale timing, or destination hedging becomes valuable","forwardScenario":"War and shipping disruption: Conflict, sanctions, canal disruption, or route risk changes grain, fertilizer, fuel, freight, and protein trade costs.","producerDecision":"Check delivered feed, fertilizer, fuel, freight, and route exposure before holding cattle longer or locking crop-input purchases.","sourceId":"fao-newsroom","sourceName":"FAO Newsroom","confidence":82,"severity":"high","sectors":["feed","crops","beef","dairy"]},{"id":"path-north-america-impact-open-meteo-water-demand-southern-plains-water-heat-impact","title":"North America: Southern Plains 7-day water demand forecast: heat and water demand watch","currentSignal":"Water demand, shade and handling windows, dairy milk yield, pasture regrowth, hay substitution, irrigation demand, and feed-crop stress.","marketEffect":"Forward pasture, heat, water, and forage pressure: Sale timing, feed coverage, water checks, milk yield, weight gain, and crop-feed risk","pastPattern":"30-120 days history usually shows up in 2-16 weeks: More calves and cull cows move earlier Replacement animals face discount risk in dry regions Feed cost can erase the value of extra gain","forwardScenario":"Drought tightens forage: Pasture weakens, hay gets tighter, and more cows or calves can move earlier than planned.","producerDecision":"Move water checks, shade, transport timing, and dairy heat-abatement ahead of the forecast peak before assuming cattle will keep eating and gaining normally.","sourceId":"open-meteo-forecast","sourceName":"Open-Meteo global weather forecast","confidence":88,"severity":"high","sectors":["beef","dairy","feed","crops"]},{"id":"path-north-america-impact-usda-esr-sorghum-weekly-exports-buyer-pull-impact","title":"North America: Sorghum export pull weekly exports changed weekly buyer pull","currentSignal":"Corn, sorghum, and meal export pull can change domestic feed basis, ration coverage, feeder bids, and gain economics.","marketEffect":"Export buyer pull before customs data confirms it: Beef cutout support, grain basis, local processor bids, and feed ingredient demand","pastPattern":"90 days to 5 years history usually shows up in 1-18 months: Backgrounding and finishing margins compress Dairy ration spend rises before cull flow changes Crop producers may gain price opportunity while livestock producers face cost risk","forwardScenario":"Feed cost spike: Corn, hay, soybean meal, fuel, or freight costs rise faster than cattle value.","producerDecision":"Check delivered feed and basis before buying feeders, holding cattle for more weight, or leaving protein needs uncovered.","sourceId":"usda-esr","sourceName":"USDA Export Sales Reporting","confidence":84,"severity":"high","sectors":["feed","crops","beef","dairy"]},{"id":"path-north-america-impact-usda-nass-crop-progress-pasture-good-excellent-2026-06-01-official-report-impact","title":"North America: U.S. pasture good/excellent changes the official crop progress read","currentSignal":"Feed coverage, hay buying, pasture carrying days, local basis, feeder bids, and whether extra retained weight still pays.","marketEffect":"Herd cycle, feeder supply, and feed availability: Replacement strategy, retained heifers, and forward feeder supply","pastPattern":"30-120 days history usually shows up in 2-16 weeks: More calves and cull cows move earlier Replacement animals face discount risk in dry regions Feed cost can erase the value of extra gain","forwardScenario":"Drought tightens forage: Pasture weakens, hay gets tighter, and more cows or calves can move earlier than planned.","producerDecision":"Move this NASS read into the feed plan now: count forage days, price hay and grain, then compare selling lighter cattle against buying another gain period.","sourceId":"usda-nass","sourceName":"USDA NASS QuickStats and ESMIS reports","confidence":91,"severity":"high","sectors":["feed","crops","beef","dairy"]},{"id":"path-north-america-impact-usda-nass-crop-progress-pasture-poor-very-poor-2026-06-01-official-report-impact","title":"North America: U.S. pasture poor/very poor changes the official crop progress read","currentSignal":"Feed coverage, hay buying, pasture carrying days, local basis, feeder bids, and whether extra retained weight still pays.","marketEffect":"Herd cycle, feeder supply, and feed availability: Replacement strategy, retained heifers, and forward feeder supply","pastPattern":"30-120 days history usually shows up in 2-16 weeks: More calves and cull cows move earlier Replacement animals face discount risk in dry regions Feed cost can erase the value of extra gain","forwardScenario":"Drought tightens forage: Pasture weakens, hay gets tighter, and more cows or calves can move earlier than planned.","producerDecision":"Move this NASS read into the feed plan now: count forage days, price hay and grain, then compare selling lighter cattle against buying another gain period.","sourceId":"usda-nass","sourceName":"USDA NASS QuickStats and ESMIS reports","confidence":91,"severity":"high","sectors":["feed","crops","beef","dairy"]},{"id":"path-north-america-impact-cftc-cot-corn-hedge-margin-impact","title":"North America: Corn COT positioning changes hedge and feed-risk timing","currentSignal":"Delivered feed cost, ration coverage, feedlot breakeven, crop selling, hay substitution, and retained weight.","marketEffect":"Speculative positioning and commercial hedge pressure: Hedge timing, basis risk, feeder bids, feed coverage, and retained-ownership risk","pastPattern":"4-52 weeks history usually shows up in 1-8 weeks: Hedge urgency rises before local bids fully reprice Feed coverage becomes more valuable when feed shorts unwind Retained ownership gets riskier when cattle longs liquidate","forwardScenario":"Feed cost spike: Corn, hay, soybean meal, fuel, or freight costs rise faster than cattle value.","producerDecision":"Use the COT feed read with local corn, hay, freight, and weather before delaying ration coverage or holding cattle for extra gain.","sourceId":"cftc-cot","sourceName":"CFTC Commitments of Traders","confidence":86,"severity":"high","sectors":["feed","crops","beef","dairy"]}],"sourceFamilies":[{"id":"gdelt-global-news","name":"GDELT global event monitor","category":"Regional","officialUrl":"https://www.gdeltproject.org/","reliability":"Research institution","cadence":"Near real time","mappedSeries":250000,"producerUse":"public event stream, trade shock, disease mention, weather disruption"},{"id":"open-meteo-forecast","name":"Open-Meteo global weather forecast","category":"Weather","officialUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","reliability":"Research institution","cadence":"Daily and hourly","mappedSeries":20000,"producerUse":"7-day rainfall forecast, temperature forecast, apparent heat stress, reference evapotranspiration"},{"id":"google-news-rss","name":"Google News public search RSS","category":"Regional","officialUrl":"https://news.google.com/rss","reliability":"Public media","cadence":"Near real time","mappedSeries":1200,"producerUse":"public news search, regional livestock alerts, trade disruption, feed input shock"},{"id":"reliefweb-agriculture","name":"ReliefWeb agriculture and disaster reports","category":"Regional","officialUrl":"https://reliefweb.int/","reliability":"Official","cadence":"Daily and event-driven","mappedSeries":1000,"producerUse":"drought reports, flood reports, conflict disruption, food security"},{"id":"usgs-water","name":"USGS water data","category":"Water","officialUrl":"https://waterservices.usgs.gov/","reliability":"Official","cadence":"Real time to monthly","mappedSeries":740,"producerUse":"water stress, irrigation supply, streamflow, reservoir pressure"},{"id":"usda-ams","name":"USDA AMS MyMarketNews","category":"Prices","officialUrl":"https://mymarketnews.ams.usda.gov/mymarketnews-api/faqs","reliability":"Official","cadence":"Daily and weekly","mappedSeries":420,"producerUse":"cash cattle, feeder auctions, boxed beef, hay"},{"id":"world-bank-wdi","name":"World Bank World Development Indicators","category":"Macro","officialUrl":"https://databank.worldbank.org/source/world-development-indicators","reliability":"Official","cadence":"Annual and periodic","mappedSeries":410,"producerUse":"income growth, population, agricultural land, food affordability"},{"id":"usda-wasde","name":"USDA WASDE historical data","category":"Crops","officialUrl":"https://www.usda.gov/historical-wasde-report-data","reliability":"Official","cadence":"Monthly","mappedSeries":260,"producerUse":"corn balance sheet, soybean balance sheet, feed use, dairy forecasts"},{"id":"usda-ers-feed-grains","name":"USDA ERS Feed Grains Database","category":"Feed","officialUrl":"https://ers.usda.gov/data-products/feed-grains-database/documentation","reliability":"Official","cadence":"Monthly and annual","mappedSeries":190,"producerUse":"feed grain supply, animal unit indexes, rail rates, grain shipments"},{"id":"usda-nass","name":"USDA NASS QuickStats and ESMIS reports","category":"Inventory","officialUrl":"https://esmis.nal.usda.gov/","reliability":"Official","cadence":"Weekly, monthly, quarterly, annual","mappedSeries":160,"producerUse":"cattle inventory, pasture condition, corn production, hay stocks"},{"id":"bls-ag-inputs","name":"U.S. BLS farm input prices","category":"Macro","officialUrl":"https://www.bls.gov/developers/","reliability":"Official","cadence":"Monthly","mappedSeries":145,"producerUse":"feed PPI, fertilizer PPI, diesel cost, retail food demand"},{"id":"usda-esr","name":"USDA Export Sales Reporting","category":"Trade","officialUrl":"https://apps.fas.usda.gov/export-sales/esrd1.html","reliability":"Official","cadence":"Weekly","mappedSeries":105,"producerUse":"export commitments, weekly shipments, buyer destination, crop demand"},{"id":"usda-fas","name":"USDA FAS Open Data","category":"Trade","officialUrl":"https://apps.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/app/index.html#/app/downloads","reliability":"Official","cadence":"Weekly, monthly, annual","mappedSeries":96,"producerUse":"exports, imports, production, trade policy"},{"id":"faostat","name":"FAOSTAT","category":"Inventory","officialUrl":"https://faostat.fao.org/","reliability":"Official","cadence":"Annual and periodic","mappedSeries":95,"producerUse":"herd inventory, production, trade, feed crop output"}],"localMarkets":[{"id":"united-states-feed-belt","name":"United States feed and crop belt","country":"United States","countryCode":"US","localityKind":"feed-belt","risk":70,"opportunity":84,"estimatedSeries":546,"decisionUse":"Use feed grain, hay, protein meal, crop progress, fuel, and credit signals before buying feed or holding weight longer.","watchSignal":"Delivered feed basis, crop yield risk, freight, diesel, and financing pressure."},{"id":"united-states-dairy-belt","name":"United States dairy and processor belt","country":"United States","countryCode":"US","localityKind":"dairy-belt","risk":70,"opportunity":83,"estimatedSeries":730,"decisionUse":"Use milk price, solids, feed cost, cull-cow flow, and processor demand before changing ration, culling, or replacement plans.","watchSignal":"Milk-feed spread, processor pull, dairy-beef supply, and replacement economics."},{"id":"united-states-pasture-basin","name":"United States pasture and water basin","country":"United States","countryCode":"US","localityKind":"pasture-basin","risk":69,"opportunity":83,"estimatedSeries":709,"decisionUse":"Use rainfall, heat, water, pasture, and forage signals before changing stocking rate, sale pressure, or supplement buying.","watchSignal":"Pasture recovery, water stress, heat load, hay availability, and forced-sale risk."},{"id":"united-states-trade-corridor","name":"United States trade and health corridor","country":"United States","countryCode":"US","localityKind":"trade-corridor","risk":68,"opportunity":84,"estimatedSeries":627,"decisionUse":"Use export access, border movement, disease notices, freight, currency, and policy signals before committing volume.","watchSignal":"Destination concentration, sanitary access, port flow, border friction, and currency translation."},{"id":"united-states-country-board","name":"United States cattle board","country":"United States","countryCode":"US","localityKind":"country-board","risk":64,"opportunity":78,"estimatedSeries":631,"decisionUse":"Use local cattle, milk, slaughter, and herd signals before changing sale timing, retention, or replacement buying.","watchSignal":"Local bid strength, slaughter pace, cull flow, and replacement appetite."},{"id":"canada-feed-belt","name":"Canada feed and crop belt","country":"Canada","countryCode":"CA","localityKind":"feed-belt","risk":67,"opportunity":84,"estimatedSeries":546,"decisionUse":"Use feed grain, hay, protein meal, crop progress, fuel, and credit signals before buying feed or holding weight longer.","watchSignal":"Delivered feed basis, crop yield risk, freight, diesel, and financing pressure."},{"id":"canada-dairy-belt","name":"Canada dairy and processor belt","country":"Canada","countryCode":"CA","localityKind":"dairy-belt","risk":67,"opportunity":83,"estimatedSeries":730,"decisionUse":"Use milk price, solids, feed cost, cull-cow flow, and processor demand before changing ration, culling, or replacement plans.","watchSignal":"Milk-feed spread, processor pull, dairy-beef supply, and replacement economics."},{"id":"canada-pasture-basin","name":"Canada pasture and water basin","country":"Canada","countryCode":"CA","localityKind":"pasture-basin","risk":66,"opportunity":83,"estimatedSeries":709,"decisionUse":"Use rainfall, heat, water, pasture, and forage signals before changing stocking rate, sale pressure, or supplement buying.","watchSignal":"Pasture recovery, water stress, heat load, hay availability, and forced-sale risk."},{"id":"canada-trade-corridor","name":"Canada trade and health corridor","country":"Canada","countryCode":"CA","localityKind":"trade-corridor","risk":65,"opportunity":84,"estimatedSeries":627,"decisionUse":"Use export access, border movement, disease notices, freight, currency, and policy signals before committing volume.","watchSignal":"Destination concentration, sanitary access, port flow, border friction, and currency translation."},{"id":"mexico-feed-belt","name":"Mexico feed and crop belt","country":"Mexico","countryCode":"MX","localityKind":"feed-belt","risk":67,"opportunity":81,"estimatedSeries":546,"decisionUse":"Use feed grain, hay, protein meal, crop progress, fuel, and credit signals before buying feed or holding weight longer.","watchSignal":"Delivered feed basis, crop yield risk, freight, diesel, and financing pressure."},{"id":"mexico-dairy-belt","name":"Mexico dairy and processor belt","country":"Mexico","countryCode":"MX","localityKind":"dairy-belt","risk":67,"opportunity":80,"estimatedSeries":730,"decisionUse":"Use milk price, solids, feed cost, cull-cow flow, and processor demand before changing ration, culling, or replacement plans.","watchSignal":"Milk-feed spread, processor pull, dairy-beef supply, and replacement economics."},{"id":"mexico-pasture-basin","name":"Mexico pasture and water basin","country":"Mexico","countryCode":"MX","localityKind":"pasture-basin","risk":66,"opportunity":80,"estimatedSeries":709,"decisionUse":"Use rainfall, heat, water, pasture, and forage signals before changing stocking rate, sale pressure, or supplement buying.","watchSignal":"Pasture recovery, water stress, heat load, hay availability, and forced-sale risk."},{"id":"mexico-trade-corridor","name":"Mexico trade and health corridor","country":"Mexico","countryCode":"MX","localityKind":"trade-corridor","risk":65,"opportunity":81,"estimatedSeries":627,"decisionUse":"Use export access, border movement, disease notices, freight, currency, and policy signals before committing volume.","watchSignal":"Destination concentration, sanitary access, port flow, border friction, and currency translation."},{"id":"mexico-country-board","name":"Mexico cattle board","country":"Mexico","countryCode":"MX","localityKind":"country-board","risk":61,"opportunity":84,"estimatedSeries":631,"decisionUse":"Use local cattle, milk, slaughter, and herd signals before changing sale timing, retention, or replacement buying.","watchSignal":"Local bid strength, slaughter pace, cull flow, and replacement appetite."}],"sourceTargets":[{"id":"united-states-satellite-vegetation-biomass","country":"United States","layer":"Satellite NDVI, biomass, pasture growth, and forage anomaly grids","category":"Weather","updatePriority":"daily","discoveryStatus":"live","estimatedSeries":140,"producerUse":"Forage growth, stocking pressure, hay demand, and crop-feed substitution."},{"id":"united-states-beef-dairy-trade","country":"United States","layer":"Beef, dairy, live animal, grain, and feed trade flows","category":"Trade","updatePriority":"monthly","discoveryStatus":"api-ready","estimatedSeries":120,"producerUse":"Export pull, import pressure, destination risk, and local basis."},{"id":"united-states-crop-progress-production","country":"United States","layer":"Crop area, progress, yield, production, stocks, and balance sheets","category":"Crops","updatePriority":"weekly","discoveryStatus":"api-ready","estimatedSeries":110,"producerUse":"Feed supply, crop margins, ration substitution, and stocking rate."},{"id":"united-states-rainfall-soil-moisture","country":"United States","layer":"Rainfall, soil moisture, pasture water, and drought grids","category":"Weather","updatePriority":"daily","discoveryStatus":"live","estimatedSeries":96,"producerUse":"Pasture recovery, planting risk, water checks, and forced-sale timing."},{"id":"united-states-heat-stress-forecast","country":"United States","layer":"Heat, humidity, wind, and livestock stress forecasts","category":"Weather","updatePriority":"daily","discoveryStatus":"live","estimatedSeries":84,"producerUse":"Milk yield, intake, transport timing, water demand, and gain risk."},{"id":"united-states-herd-inventory","country":"United States","layer":"Bovine herd, cow inventory, calf crop, and replacement numbers","category":"Inventory","updatePriority":"monthly","discoveryStatus":"api-ready","estimatedSeries":80,"producerUse":"Herd rebuild, replacement value, long-cycle supply, and basis."},{"id":"united-states-retail-foodservice-demand","country":"United States","layer":"Retail beef, dairy, foodservice, supermarket, and consumer demand signals","category":"Prices","updatePriority":"monthly","discoveryStatus":"api-ready","estimatedSeries":76,"producerUse":"Demand pull, product mix, seasonal retail pressure, and processor appetite."},{"id":"united-states-corn-feed-basis","country":"United States","layer":"Corn, barley, silage, and feed grain local basis","category":"Feed","updatePriority":"weekly","discoveryStatus":"report-parser-needed","estimatedSeries":72,"producerUse":"Cost of gain, feed coverage, stocking rate, and crop sale timing."},{"id":"united-states-credit-rate-inflation","country":"United States","layer":"Credit, interest, currency, inflation, and farm finance series","category":"Macro","updatePriority":"monthly","discoveryStatus":"api-ready","estimatedSeries":70,"producerUse":"Cash flow, replacement finance, input timing, and export bids."},{"id":"united-states-crop-export-inspection-sales","country":"United States","layer":"Grain export inspections, forward sales, vessel lineups, and buyer destinations","category":"Trade","updatePriority":"weekly","discoveryStatus":"api-ready","estimatedSeries":66,"producerUse":"Corn and soy basis, feed coverage, crop sales, and ration substitution."},{"id":"united-states-water-reservoir-river","country":"United States","layer":"Reservoir, river, groundwater, and irrigation water data","category":"Water","updatePriority":"daily","discoveryStatus":"api-ready","estimatedSeries":64,"producerUse":"Stocking, irrigation, pasture recovery, hay demand, and crop-feed yield."},{"id":"united-states-diesel-fertilizer-input","country":"United States","layer":"Diesel, fertilizer, electricity, labor, and input cost indexes","category":"Finance","updatePriority":"weekly","discoveryStatus":"api-ready","estimatedSeries":62,"producerUse":"Delivered feed, hauling, crop inputs, and working-capital pressure."},{"id":"united-states-live-cattle-cash-price","country":"United States","layer":"Live cattle cash and auction prices","category":"Prices","updatePriority":"daily","discoveryStatus":"report-parser-needed","estimatedSeries":60,"producerUse":"Local sale timing, buyer leverage, class spreads, and basis."},{"id":"united-states-futures-hedge-reference","country":"United States","layer":"Futures, options, forward curves, and hedge reference prices","category":"Futures","updatePriority":"daily","discoveryStatus":"licensed","estimatedSeries":58,"producerUse":"Hedge timing, retained ownership, feed coverage, and basis risk."},{"id":"united-states-export-quota-tariff-border","country":"United States","layer":"Export quotas, tariffs, border inspections, certificates, and market-access rules","category":"Trade","updatePriority":"event-driven","discoveryStatus":"report-parser-needed","estimatedSeries":58,"producerUse":"Buyer access, destination risk, local basis, and replacement trade."},{"id":"united-states-soybean-meal-protein-feed","country":"United States","layer":"Soybean meal, protein meal, and feed ingredient prices","category":"Feed","updatePriority":"weekly","discoveryStatus":"report-parser-needed","estimatedSeries":54,"producerUse":"Ration cost, backgrounding margin, and dairy-feed spread."},{"id":"united-states-pasture-land-rent-lease","country":"United States","layer":"Pasture rent, land lease, grazing permit, and land-value series","category":"Finance","updatePriority":"monthly","discoveryStatus":"manual-review","estimatedSeries":54,"producerUse":"Carrying-cost benchmarks, expansion decisions, and retained-gain economics."},{"id":"united-states-beef-cutout-wholesale","country":"United States","layer":"Beef cutout, boxed beef, primal, and wholesale meat prices","category":"Prices","updatePriority":"weekly","discoveryStatus":"api-ready","estimatedSeries":52,"producerUse":"Packer margin, grid leverage, carcass value, and finished-cattle bid pressure."}],"historicalDrivers":[{"id":"pasture-stress-to-sale-runs","driver":"Pasture stress becomes sale pressure","lag":"Pasture stress usually hits feed buying first, sale runs second, and replacement prices last.","lookbackWindow":"30-120 days","forwardWindow":"2-16 weeks","producerDecision":"Move from calendar-based selling to forage-days and feed-margin selling.","confidence":86},{"id":"crop-balance-to-feed-margin","driver":"Crop balance becomes feed margin","lag":"Acreage and crop condition lead production; production leads feed price; feed price leads cattle and milk margins.","lookbackWindow":"90 days to 5 years","forwardWindow":"1-18 months","producerDecision":"Use the crop balance to decide feed coverage, hay buying, grain pricing, and stocking rate.","confidence":84},{"id":"export-pull-to-local-basis","driver":"Export pull changes local basis","lag":"Export sales lead shipments; shipments lead customs totals; customs totals confirm structural demand.","lookbackWindow":"4-52 weeks","forwardWindow":"1-12 weeks","producerDecision":"Price cattle and crops with local basis plus destination exposure, not only the national headline.","confidence":82},{"id":"heat-load-to-milk-gain","driver":"Heat load becomes milk and weight-gain drag","lag":"Heat and humidity affect intake first, then milk, weight gain, conception, and sale timing.","lookbackWindow":"7-90 days","forwardWindow":"Same day to 12 weeks","producerDecision":"Move heat mitigation and ration timing ahead of sale-weight or milk-output assumptions.","confidence":82},{"id":"dairy-margin-to-beef-supply","driver":"Dairy margins become beef supply","lag":"Milk price and feed cost hit dairy margins before cull cow flow and beef supply respond.","lookbackWindow":"4-26 weeks","forwardWindow":"2-20 weeks","producerDecision":"Reprice ration, cull timing, and replacement purchases before monthly milk checks settle.","confidence":81},{"id":"geopolitical-shock-to-feed-freight","driver":"Geopolitical shocks become feed, freight, and basis risk","lag":"Conflict, sanctions, or shipping-route stress can move fuel, fertilizer, grain, and freight before farmgate cattle or milk prices adjust.","lookbackWindow":"Same day to 3 years","forwardWindow":"Same week to 12 months","producerDecision":"Treat global conflict and shipping risk as a delivered-cost problem before changing sale timing, feed coverage, or crop-input purchases.","confidence":79},{"id":"positioning-to-hedge-margin","driver":"Futures positioning becomes hedge and margin pressure","lag":"COT positioning shifts before many cash producers feel the basis move; the risk shows up later in hedge cost, feed coverage, and retained ownership.","lookbackWindow":"4-52 weeks","forwardWindow":"1-8 weeks","producerDecision":"Check COT before deciding to hold unhedged weight, delay feed coverage, or assume today’s basis will still be there next month.","confidence":78},{"id":"logistics-to-local-basis","driver":"Logistics shocks become local basis gaps","lag":"Freight and port disruption can widen local basis before national price series register the stress.","lookbackWindow":"7 days to 3 years","forwardWindow":"Same week to 9 months","producerDecision":"Price the delivered destination, not the benchmark, before moving cattle, feed, milk, or crop volume.","confidence":78}],"scenarios":[{"id":"drought-shock","name":"Drought tightens forage","sector":"feed","defaultIntensity":42,"description":"Pasture weakens, hay gets tighter, and more cows or calves can move earlier than planned.","producerDecision":"Check forage inventory, water, and the value of selling lighter cattle before everyone else is forced to."},{"id":"crop-yield-shock","name":"Crop yield shock","sector":"crops","defaultIntensity":38,"description":"Soil moisture, heat, and rainfall patterns point to lower crop yields before harvest data is published.","producerDecision":"Decide whether to protect feed needs, price grain, adjust planting, or buy hay before local shortages are obvious."},{"id":"geopolitical-shipping-shock","name":"War and shipping disruption","sector":"feed","defaultIntensity":37,"description":"Conflict, sanctions, canal disruption, or route risk changes grain, fertilizer, fuel, freight, and protein trade costs.","producerDecision":"Before holding cattle for more gain, check whether war or shipping risk has changed delivered feed, fertilizer, freight, or buyer access."},{"id":"port-freight-shock","name":"Port and freight shock","sector":"feed","defaultIntensity":36,"description":"Port congestion, fuel, border friction, or shipping disruption widens the gap between farm price and destination price.","producerDecision":"Before moving cattle, hay, grain, milk, or inputs, test whether freight has already eaten the price signal."},{"id":"feed-cost-spike","name":"Feed cost spike","sector":"feed","defaultIntensity":35,"description":"Corn, hay, soybean meal, fuel, or freight costs rise faster than cattle value.","producerDecision":"Recalculate whether the next gain period is still worth feeding."},{"id":"milk-margin-squeeze","name":"Milk margin squeeze","sector":"dairy","defaultIntensity":33,"description":"Milk price weakens while feed, energy, or cull cow pressure rises.","producerDecision":"Reprice feed, cull timing, and replacement animals before ration spend outruns milk value."},{"id":"fertilizer-energy-squeeze","name":"Fertilizer and energy squeeze","sector":"crops","defaultIntensity":32,"description":"Fertilizer, diesel, freight, and credit costs rise before crop or cattle prices fully adjust.","producerDecision":"Stress-test planting, feed procurement, and replacement purchases against higher working-capital cost."},{"id":"export-disruption","name":"Export or border disruption","sector":"beef","defaultIntensity":30,"description":"A sanitary, policy, currency, or logistics event changes buyer access.","producerDecision":"Do not assume local bids are stable when export channels or border rules move."}],"scenarioPressure":[{"scenarioId":"feed-cost-spike","scenarioName":"Feed cost spike","sector":"feed","pressureScore":1378,"impactCount":404,"eventCount":79,"temporalSignalCount":0,"confidence":81,"producerRead":"Feed cost spike is warming versus the prior stored update. Current pressure uses 404 driver impacts, 79 watched reports, and 0 time signals before changing sale timing, feed coverage, health watch, or margin protection."},{"scenarioId":"crop-yield-shock","scenarioName":"Crop yield shock","sector":"crops","pressureScore":1033,"impactCount":307,"eventCount":46,"temporalSignalCount":6,"confidence":81,"producerRead":"Crop yield shock is cooling versus the prior stored update. Current pressure uses 307 driver impacts, 46 watched reports, and 6 time signals before changing sale timing, feed coverage, health watch, or margin protection."},{"scenarioId":"export-disruption","scenarioName":"Export or border disruption","sector":"beef","pressureScore":800,"impactCount":242,"eventCount":32,"temporalSignalCount":1,"confidence":78,"producerRead":"Export or border disruption is near the prior stored update. Current pressure uses 242 driver impacts, 32 watched reports, and 1 time signals before changing sale timing, feed coverage, health watch, or margin protection."},{"scenarioId":"drought-shock","scenarioName":"Drought tightens forage","sector":"feed","pressureScore":671,"impactCount":205,"eventCount":18,"temporalSignalCount":6,"confidence":79,"producerRead":"Drought tightens forage is cooling versus the prior stored update. Current pressure uses 205 driver impacts, 18 watched reports, and 6 time signals before changing sale timing, feed coverage, health watch, or margin protection."},{"scenarioId":"fertilizer-energy-squeeze","scenarioName":"Fertilizer and energy squeeze","sector":"crops","pressureScore":256,"impactCount":82,"eventCount":0,"temporalSignalCount":1,"confidence":79,"producerRead":"Fertilizer and energy squeeze is near the prior stored update. Current pressure uses 82 driver impacts, 0 watched reports, and 1 time signals before changing sale timing, feed coverage, health watch, or margin protection."},{"scenarioId":"geopolitical-shipping-shock","scenarioName":"War and shipping disruption","sector":"feed","pressureScore":24,"impactCount":0,"eventCount":8,"temporalSignalCount":0,"confidence":82,"producerRead":"War and shipping disruption is near the prior stored update. Current pressure uses 0 driver impacts, 8 watched reports, and 0 time signals before changing sale timing, feed coverage, health watch, or margin protection."},{"scenarioId":"port-freight-shock","scenarioName":"Port and freight shock","sector":"feed","pressureScore":24,"impactCount":0,"eventCount":8,"temporalSignalCount":0,"confidence":82,"producerRead":"Port and freight shock is near the prior stored update. Current pressure uses 0 driver impacts, 8 watched reports, and 0 time signals before changing sale timing, feed coverage, health watch, or margin protection."},{"scenarioId":"credit-interest-squeeze","scenarioName":"Credit and interest squeeze","sector":"beef","pressureScore":0,"impactCount":0,"eventCount":0,"temporalSignalCount":0,"confidence":0,"producerRead":"Credit and interest squeeze is near the prior stored update. Current pressure uses 0 driver impacts, 0 watched reports, and 0 time signals before changing sale timing, feed coverage, health watch, or margin protection."}],"graph":{"nodes":[{"id":"market:southern-plains","kind":"market","label":"Southern Plains","score":145},{"id":"evidence:us-drought-monitor-southern-plains-d2-plus-forage-retention-impact","kind":"evidence","label":"Southern Plains severe drought footprint changes forage and retention risk","score":92},{"id":"evidence:us-drought-monitor-oklahoma-d2-plus-forage-retention-impact","kind":"evidence","label":"Oklahoma severe drought footprint changes forage and retention risk","score":91},{"id":"evidence:us-drought-monitor-nebraska-d2-plus-forage-retention-impact","kind":"evidence","label":"Nebraska severe drought footprint changes forage and retention risk","score":91},{"id":"evidence:us-drought-monitor-colorado-d2-plus-forage-retention-impact","kind":"evidence","label":"Colorado severe drought footprint changes forage and retention 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monitor","score":84},{"id":"source:open-meteo-forecast","kind":"source","label":"Open-Meteo global weather forecast","score":84},{"id":"source:google-news-rss","kind":"source","label":"Google News public search RSS","score":72},{"id":"source:reliefweb-agriculture","kind":"source","label":"ReliefWeb agriculture and disaster reports","score":92},{"id":"source:usgs-water","kind":"source","label":"USGS water data","score":92},{"id":"source:usda-ams","kind":"source","label":"USDA AMS MyMarketNews","score":92},{"id":"source:world-bank-wdi","kind":"source","label":"World Bank World Development Indicators","score":92},{"id":"source:usda-wasde","kind":"source","label":"USDA WASDE historical data","score":92},{"id":"history:pasture-stress-to-sale-runs","kind":"history","label":"Pasture stress becomes sale pressure","score":86},{"id":"history:crop-balance-to-feed-margin","kind":"history","label":"Crop balance becomes feed margin","score":84},{"id":"history:export-pull-to-local-basis","kind":"history","label":"Export pull changes local basis","score":82},{"id":"history:heat-load-to-milk-gain","kind":"history","label":"Heat load becomes milk and weight-gain drag","score":82},{"id":"history:dairy-margin-to-beef-supply","kind":"history","label":"Dairy margins become beef supply","score":81},{"id":"scenario:drought-shock","kind":"scenario","label":"Drought tightens forage","score":42},{"id":"scenario:crop-yield-shock","kind":"scenario","label":"Crop yield shock","score":38},{"id":"scenario:geopolitical-shipping-shock","kind":"scenario","label":"War and shipping disruption","score":37},{"id":"scenario:port-freight-shock","kind":"scenario","label":"Port and freight shock","score":36},{"id":"scenario:feed-cost-spike","kind":"scenario","label":"Feed cost spike","score":35},{"id":"action:southern-plains","kind":"action","label":"Check delivered feed, fertilizer, fuel, freight, and route exposure before holding cattle longer or locking crop-input purchases.","score":100}],"edges":[{"id":"evidence:us-drought-monitor-southern-plains-d2-plus-forage-retention-impact->market:southern-plains","from":"evidence:us-drought-monitor-southern-plains-d2-plus-forage-retention-impact","to":"market:southern-plains","relation":"affects market","confidence":92},{"id":"evidence:us-drought-monitor-oklahoma-d2-plus-forage-retention-impact->market:southern-plains","from":"evidence:us-drought-monitor-oklahoma-d2-plus-forage-retention-impact","to":"market:southern-plains","relation":"affects market","confidence":91},{"id":"evidence:us-drought-monitor-nebraska-d2-plus-forage-retention-impact->market:southern-plains","from":"evidence:us-drought-monitor-nebraska-d2-plus-forage-retention-impact","to":"market:southern-plains","relation":"affects 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history","confidence":86},{"id":"market:southern-plains->history:crop-balance-to-feed-margin","from":"market:southern-plains","to":"history:crop-balance-to-feed-margin","relation":"matches history","confidence":84},{"id":"market:southern-plains->history:export-pull-to-local-basis","from":"market:southern-plains","to":"history:export-pull-to-local-basis","relation":"matches history","confidence":82},{"id":"market:southern-plains->history:heat-load-to-milk-gain","from":"market:southern-plains","to":"history:heat-load-to-milk-gain","relation":"matches history","confidence":82},{"id":"market:southern-plains->history:dairy-margin-to-beef-supply","from":"market:southern-plains","to":"history:dairy-margin-to-beef-supply","relation":"matches history","confidence":81},{"id":"market:southern-plains->scenario:drought-shock","from":"market:southern-plains","to":"scenario:drought-shock","relation":"tests scenario","confidence":42},{"id":"market:southern-plains->scenario:crop-yield-shock","from":"market:southern-plains","to":"scenario:crop-yield-shock","relation":"tests scenario","confidence":38},{"id":"market:southern-plains->scenario:geopolitical-shipping-shock","from":"market:southern-plains","to":"scenario:geopolitical-shipping-shock","relation":"tests scenario","confidence":37},{"id":"market:southern-plains->scenario:port-freight-shock","from":"market:southern-plains","to":"scenario:port-freight-shock","relation":"tests scenario","confidence":36},{"id":"market:southern-plains->scenario:feed-cost-spike","from":"market:southern-plains","to":"scenario:feed-cost-spike","relation":"tests scenario","confidence":35},{"id":"market:southern-plains->action:southern-plains","from":"market:southern-plains","to":"action:southern-plains","relation":"supports action","confidence":90}]},"citationText":"Southern Plains, United States (North America) connects 24 evidence items, 14 source families, 14 local market links, 8 historical drivers, and 8 scenarios. Producer action: Check delivered feed, fertilizer, fuel, freight, and route exposure before holding cattle longer or locking crop-input purchases.","shareableMarkdown":"---\ntitle: \"Southern Plains market workbench\"\nregion: \"North America\"\ngeoNode: \"southern-plains\"\ngeneratedAt: \"2026-06-06T22:13:56.784Z\"\nsnapshotGeneratedAt: \"2026-06-06T11:33:23.605Z\"\ncanonicalDataUrl: \"https://cattleweightestimation.com/market-pulse/geo-workbench.json?region=north-america&geoNode=southern-plains&sector=all&lang=en\"\n---\n\n# Southern Plains market workbench\n\n274 evidence links across 18 source families are moving the Southern Plains read. 333 $/ton in the USDA ERS Feed Grains Database. This is an official feed, forage, and byproduct-cost input for cattle breakevens.\n\n## Producer Action\n\nCheck delivered feed, fertilizer, fuel, freight, and route exposure before holding cattle longer or locking crop-input purchases.\n\n## Signal To Action Chain\n\n- Current signal: FAO Newsroom published a war, sanctions, or shipping-route item. Read it as a delivered feed, fertilizer, fuel, freight, and buyer-access signal.\n- Market effect: Early event awareness before official reports update: Buyer access, disease movement risk, export demand, feed input cost, weather pressure, and local sale timing\n- Past pattern: Same day to 3 years history usually shows up in Same week to 12 months: Delivered feed and fertilizer become more expensive or less reliable Local basis can diverge from headline futures or export values Local feed substitution, earlier sale timing, or destination hedging becomes valuable\n- Forward scenario: War and shipping disruption: Conflict, sanctions, canal disruption, or route risk changes grain, fertilizer, fuel, freight, and protein trade costs.\n\n## Top Evidence\n\n- Southern Plains severe drought footprint changes forage and retention risk: 52 % D2+ area in the latest U.S. Drought Monitor. D2+ is the official severe-drought footprint to read before assuming pasture, hay, and water pressure stay local. Action: Recount forage and hay inventory now, then compare selling lighter cattle against carrying them through a drought-priced gain period. Source: U.S. Drought Monitor\n- Oklahoma severe drought footprint changes forage and retention risk: 46 % D2+ area in the latest U.S. Drought Monitor. D2+ is the official severe-drought footprint to read before assuming pasture, hay, and water pressure stay local. Action: Recount forage and hay inventory now, then compare selling lighter cattle against carrying them through a drought-priced gain period. Source: U.S. Drought Monitor\n- Nebraska severe drought footprint changes forage and retention risk: 75 % D2+ area in the latest U.S. Drought Monitor. D2+ is the official severe-drought footprint to read before assuming pasture, hay, and water pressure stay local. Action: Recount forage and hay inventory now, then compare selling lighter cattle against carrying them through a drought-priced gain period. Source: U.S. Drought Monitor\n- Colorado severe drought footprint changes forage and retention risk: 76 % D2+ area in the latest U.S. Drought Monitor. D2+ is the official severe-drought footprint to read before assuming pasture, hay, and water pressure stay local. Action: Recount forage and hay inventory now, then compare selling lighter cattle against carrying them through a drought-priced gain period. Source: U.S. Drought Monitor\n- New Mexico severe drought footprint changes forage and retention risk: 85 % D2+ area in the latest U.S. Drought Monitor. D2+ is the official severe-drought footprint to read before assuming pasture, hay, and water pressure stay local. Action: Recount forage and hay inventory now, then compare selling lighter cattle against carrying them through a drought-priced gain period. Source: U.S. Drought Monitor\n- U.S. pasture good/excellent changes the official crop progress read: 30 % in the 2026-06-01 USDA NASS Crop Progress; -12.0 points versus last year. This is an official supply, feed, dairy, or pasture signal to read before treating local prices as isolated. Action: Move this NASS read into the feed plan now: count forage days, price hay and grain, then compare selling lighter cattle against buying another gain period. Source: USDA NASS QuickStats and ESMIS reports\n- U.S. pasture poor/very poor changes the official crop progress read: 42 % in the 2026-06-01 USDA NASS Crop Progress; 42.0% of selected-state pasture is poor or very poor. This is an official supply, feed, dairy, or pasture signal to read before treating local prices as isolated. Action: Move this NASS read into the feed plan now: count forage days, price hay and grain, then compare selling lighter cattle against buying another gain period. Source: USDA NASS QuickStats and ESMIS reports\n- North America: U.S. pasture good/excellent changes the official crop progress read: Herd cycle, feeder supply, and feed availability: Replacement strategy, retained heifers, and forward feeder supply Action: Move this NASS read into the feed plan now: count forage days, price hay and grain, then compare selling lighter cattle against buying another gain period. Source: USDA NASS QuickStats and ESMIS reports\n\n## Local Markets\n\n- United States feed and crop belt, United States: risk 70, opportunity 84. Delivered feed basis, crop yield risk, freight, diesel, and financing pressure.\n- United States dairy and processor belt, United States: risk 70, opportunity 83. Milk-feed spread, processor pull, dairy-beef supply, and replacement economics.\n- United States pasture and water basin, United States: risk 69, opportunity 83. Pasture recovery, water stress, heat load, hay availability, and forced-sale risk.\n- United States trade and health corridor, United States: risk 68, opportunity 84. Destination concentration, sanitary access, port flow, border friction, and currency translation.\n- United States cattle board, United States: risk 64, opportunity 78. Local bid strength, slaughter pace, cull flow, and replacement appetite.\n- Canada feed and crop belt, Canada: risk 67, opportunity 84. Delivered feed basis, crop yield risk, freight, diesel, and financing pressure.\n- Canada dairy and processor belt, Canada: risk 67, opportunity 83. Milk-feed spread, processor pull, dairy-beef supply, and replacement economics.\n- Canada pasture and water basin, Canada: risk 66, opportunity 83. Pasture recovery, water stress, heat load, hay availability, and forced-sale risk.\n\n## Scenarios\n\n- Drought tightens forage: Check forage inventory, water, and the value of selling lighter cattle before everyone else is forced to.\n- Crop yield shock: Decide whether to protect feed needs, price grain, adjust planting, or buy hay before local shortages are obvious.\n- War and shipping disruption: Before holding cattle for more gain, check whether war or shipping risk has changed delivered feed, fertilizer, freight, or buyer access.\n- Port and freight shock: Before moving cattle, hay, grain, milk, or inputs, test whether freight has already eaten the price signal.\n- Feed cost spike: Recalculate whether the next gain period is still worth feeding.\n- Milk margin squeeze: Reprice feed, cull timing, and replacement animals before ration spend outruns milk value.\n\n## Citation\n\nSouthern Plains, United States (North America) connects 24 evidence items, 14 source families, 14 local market links, 8 historical drivers, and 8 scenarios. Producer action: Check delivered feed, fertilizer, fuel, freight, and route exposure before holding cattle longer or locking crop-input purchases.\n"}}