{"name":"Cattle Market Pulse geographies","description":"Filterable geo-market feed for cattle, dairy, feed, crop, weather, disease, trade, logistics, and farm input intelligence. 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This is an official feed, forage, and byproduct-cost input for cattle breakevens.","producerDecision":"Reprice the next feed turn now: compare local corn, hay, protein, freight, and cattle bids before holding weight or leaving ration coverage open.","watchNext":"Rainfall is close to the recent pace, so watch heat, water, and feed cost before changing sale timing.","scenarioRead":"Most connected scenario: Feed cost spike. 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Official URL: https://www.cepea.org.br/br/categoria/acessar/boi-94-1.aspx"},{"id":"mexico-siap","name":"Mexico SIAP livestock data","category":"Regional","officialUrl":"https://www.gob.mx/agricultura/dgsiap/acciones-y-programas/produccion-pecuaria","cadence":"Monthly and annual","access":"Public pages and datasets","reliability":"Official","regions":["latin-america","north-america"],"sectors":["beef","dairy"],"producerUse":"livestock production, slaughter capacity, regional output","citation":"Mexico SIAP livestock data: Mexican livestock production, slaughter capacity, and agricultural market statistics. 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Official URL: https://www.agriland.ie/feed/"},{"id":"gdt-events","name":"Global Dairy Trade","category":"Dairy","officialUrl":"https://www.globaldairytrade.info/","cadence":"Twice monthly","access":"Public results and market data","reliability":"Public market operator","regions":["oceania","europe","africa-asia","latin-america"],"sectors":["dairy"],"producerUse":"whole milk powder, skim milk powder, butter, auction demand","citation":"Global Dairy Trade: International dairy auction events, product prices, and forward dairy demand signals. Official URL: https://www.globaldairytrade.info/"},{"id":"brazil-bcb-sgs","name":"Banco Central do Brasil SGS","category":"Finance","officialUrl":"https://www.bcb.gov.br/estatisticas/sgs","cadence":"Daily to monthly","access":"SGS API","reliability":"Official","regions":["latin-america"],"sectors":["beef","dairy","feed","crops"],"producerUse":"BRL/USD, interest rate, inflation, credit","citation":"Banco Central do Brasil SGS: Brazil FX, interest, inflation, credit, and macro series for export and input-cost translation. Official URL: https://www.bcb.gov.br/estatisticas/sgs"},{"id":"eu-milk","name":"EU Milk Market Observatory","category":"Dairy","officialUrl":"https://agridata.ec.europa.eu/extensions/API_Documentation/milk.html","cadence":"Weekly and monthly","access":"EU Agri-food API","reliability":"Official","regions":["europe"],"sectors":["dairy"],"producerUse":"raw milk price, butter, skimmed milk powder, whey","citation":"EU Milk Market Observatory: EU raw milk and dairy product prices by member state and EU aggregate. Official URL: https://agridata.ec.europa.eu/extensions/API_Documentation/milk.html"},{"id":"eurostat-agri","name":"Eurostat agriculture","category":"Inventory","officialUrl":"https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/agriculture/database","cadence":"Monthly to annual","access":"Eurostat database and API","reliability":"Official","regions":["europe"],"sectors":["beef","dairy","feed"],"producerUse":"livestock counts, milk collection, slaughter","citation":"Eurostat agriculture: EU livestock, milk collection, slaughter, feed, land, and farm structure data. Official URL: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/agriculture/database"},{"id":"mla-api","name":"Meat & Livestock Australia statistics API","category":"Prices","officialUrl":"https://www.mla.com.au/prices-markets/statistics/api/","cadence":"Daily to weekly","access":"Statistics API","reliability":"Public market operator","regions":["oceania"],"sectors":["beef","dairy","feed"],"producerUse":"saleyard prices, EYCI, slaughter, production","citation":"Meat & Livestock Australia statistics API: Australian livestock prices, saleyard indicators, slaughter, production, and market statistics. Official URL: https://www.mla.com.au/prices-markets/statistics/api/"}],"evidence":[{"kind":"metric","id":"usda-nass-cattle-all-feedlot-cattle-2026-01-30","title":"U.S. all-feedlot cattle on feed","detail":"13.8 million head","date":"2026-01-30","sourceId":"usda-nass","sourceName":"USDA NASS ESMIS","sourceUrl":"https://esmis.nal.usda.gov/sites/default/release-files/795748/catl0126.txt","confidence":86},{"kind":"metric","id":"usda-nass-cattle-on-feed-feedlot-inventory-2026-05-22","title":"U.S. cattle on feed","detail":"11.6 million head","date":"2026-05-22","sourceId":"usda-nass","sourceName":"USDA NASS ESMIS","sourceUrl":"https://esmis.nal.usda.gov/sites/default/release-files/795913/cofd0526.txt","confidence":86},{"kind":"metric","id":"usda-nass-crop-progress-corn-emerged-2026-06-01","title":"U.S. corn emerged progress","detail":"76 %","date":"2026-06-01","sourceId":"usda-nass","sourceName":"USDA NASS ESMIS","sourceUrl":"https://esmis.nal.usda.gov/sites/default/release-files/795928/prog2226.txt","confidence":86},{"kind":"metric","id":"usda-nass-crop-progress-corn-good-excellent-2026-06-01","title":"U.S. corn good/excellent","detail":"67 %","date":"2026-06-01","sourceId":"usda-nass","sourceName":"USDA NASS ESMIS","sourceUrl":"https://esmis.nal.usda.gov/sites/default/release-files/795928/prog2226.txt","confidence":86},{"kind":"metric","id":"usda-nass-crop-progress-corn-planted-2026-06-01","title":"U.S. corn planted progress","detail":"93 %","date":"2026-06-01","sourceId":"usda-nass","sourceName":"USDA NASS ESMIS","sourceUrl":"https://esmis.nal.usda.gov/sites/default/release-files/795928/prog2226.txt","confidence":86},{"kind":"impact","id":"usda-ers-feed-grains-soybean-meal-wholesale-feed-margin-impact","title":"Soybean meal wholesale price changes feed-margin pressure","detail":"333 $/ton in the USDA ERS Feed Grains Database. This is an official feed, forage, and byproduct-cost input for cattle breakevens.","date":null,"sourceId":"usda-ers-feed-grains","sourceName":"USDA ERS Feed Grains Database","sourceUrl":"https://ers.usda.gov/data-products/feed-grains-database/documentation","confidence":85,"severity":"medium"},{"kind":"impact","id":"usda-ers-feed-grains-steer-heifer-feed-ratio-feed-margin-impact","title":"Steer and heifer-feed ratio changes feed-margin pressure","detail":"56 bu/cwt in the USDA ERS Feed Grains Database. This is an official feed, forage, and byproduct-cost input for cattle breakevens.","date":null,"sourceId":"usda-ers-feed-grains","sourceName":"USDA ERS Feed Grains Database","sourceUrl":"https://ers.usda.gov/data-products/feed-grains-database/documentation","confidence":88,"severity":"medium"},{"kind":"impact","id":"fas-psd-ca-soybean-meal-feed-balance-sheet-impact","title":"Canada PSD soybean meal feed balance updates the long-cycle supply read","detail":"2,345 thousand mt in USDA FAS PSD for Canada. The balance sheet is +0.2% versus 2025, so read it against local prices instead of treating daily headlines as isolated events.","date":null,"sourceId":"usda-fas","sourceName":"USDA FAS Open Data","sourceUrl":"https://apps.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/app/index.html#/app/downloads","confidence":87,"severity":"low"},{"kind":"temporal-signal","id":"nasa-power-southern-plains-rainfall-baseline","title":"Southern Plains rainfall against the prior 30 days","detail":"Rainfall is close to the recent pace, so watch heat, water, and feed cost before changing sale timing.","date":"Latest 7 days","sourceId":"nasa-power","sourceName":"NASA POWER","sourceUrl":"https://power.larc.nasa.gov/api/temporal/daily/point?parameters=T2M%2CPRECTOTCORR&community=AG&longitude=-99.5&latitude=35.5&start=20260428&end=20260603&format=JSON","confidence":82,"severity":"medium"},{"kind":"temporal-signal","id":"usgs-water-southern-plains-30d-baseline","title":"Southern Plains streamflow against the 30-day baseline","detail":"Measured water is above baseline, but forage response and heat still decide whether extra carrying days pay.","date":"Latest measured value","sourceId":"usgs-water","sourceName":"USGS water data","sourceUrl":"https://waterservices.usgs.gov/nwis/iv/?format=json&sites=07227500&parameterCd=00060&period=P30D&siteStatus=all","confidence":80,"severity":"low"},{"kind":"event","id":"google-news-rss-global-feed-trade-consumers-keep-buying-beef-despite-record-prices-as-drought-expands-across-cattle-co-2026-05-22","title":"Consumers Keep Buying Beef Despite Record Prices as Drought Expands Across Cattle Country - RFD-TV","detail":"Convert the signal into forage days, water checks, and a sale-or-hold threshold.","date":"2026-05-22T01:21:05.000Z","sourceId":"google-news-rss","sourceName":"Google News public search RSS","sourceUrl":"https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMisAFBVV95cUxNNElrT3h1SHNiMUs2YnBMdWN3QjZxZVhTOFhBQVI5bnRWOUVJazhRQXlLSXRyZ2lncXFjaGVMdUF3LUludDkzbFRmX2NDVU8tRHNBOElGeDZoejQ1VTVnazBoTWgxbTZqRGtTUjI5aGZfN3ZOR1pNS3Nhb3V2ZDBpWlZTN0ladjVfWnE3M1lIZXNtQnZDd1dsR3lRNmNRQ3lhNnk0MVNic2dEU1dJdFh4Rg?oc=5","confidence":78,"severity":"medium"},{"kind":"event","id":"google-news-rss-global-feed-trade-proactive-herd-management-a-must-during-drought-beef-magazine-2026-06-02","title":"Proactive herd management a must during drought - Beef Magazine","detail":"Public item selected because weather or forage conditions can change pasture days, water checks, and sale pressure: Proactive herd management a must during drought - Beef Magazine","date":"2026-06-02T20:53:17.000Z","sourceId":"google-news-rss","sourceName":"Google News public search RSS","sourceUrl":"https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMingFBVV95cUxPdTh2UmIycWVnX3pEMnNqQXpoVThaLWVKYU4tU1Mxa1o2V0hLVmlpTFhOalRHdU4tQzhkbXo2UEFzUEtoYnNuUXNYc19nbTczeG1EYmFoVnFaQ3c5alhSNUtEQzVHSWJUMWhpbl9leTBPa2gyV2xMYjhQVVJuYThvbGdEOVBTWnVRSG85amcyZ1ExVW1YOXR3MG5tWDllQQ?oc=5","confidence":78,"severity":"medium"},{"kind":"event","id":"google-news-rss-global-feed-trade-drought-lingers-in-south-and-west-beef-magazine-2026-06-02","title":"Drought lingers in South and West - Beef Magazine","detail":"Public item selected because weather or forage conditions can change pasture days, water checks, and sale pressure: Drought lingers in South and West - Beef Magazine","date":"2026-06-02T10:44:15.000Z","sourceId":"google-news-rss","sourceName":"Google News public search RSS","sourceUrl":"https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMikAFBVV95cUxQYlRRLXNHZ0JnTkhwMDBGV0ZiRWZvVklnclN6Wmx4SG1MQTVfTGdIeFVncThBWmc1WEJEMDZHVmViYjBrc2lYdUNaT0lIb19saFBxMEZqTm1Nd0JzVjhtMGFTcmpvblVoUUpaWFVLcGJsZFlKYVF4RWItdmd2WlZXazJxNDlPNFJDSnliQWtQT28?oc=5","confidence":78,"severity":"medium"},{"kind":"event","id":"google-news-rss-global-feed-trade-drought-forces-ranchers-into-tough-decisions-as-cattle-sales-skyrocket-drovers-com-2026-06-01","title":"Drought Forces Ranchers into Tough Decisions as Cattle Sales Skyrocket - drovers.com","detail":"Public item selected because weather or forage conditions can change pasture days, water checks, and sale pressure: Drought Forces Ranchers into Tough Decisions as Cattle Sales Skyrocket - drovers.com","date":"2026-06-01T13:52:18.000Z","sourceId":"google-news-rss","sourceName":"Google News public search RSS","sourceUrl":"https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMilgFBVV95cUxNb01pdVNPUTJFM0VrU2pKM3lhUzlwUkZMeHZFWlRFcGw5X1c4c3VDd01DLW10cXA2U0RkZEVVYThRN0d0VERrRDR5TVJCVXZmb0h1VTRqdGdpa3d1YU5NbUJxcE82eTh2emlyeDZreEd3WW1DZnk4MmlXSFlrdU4xWWdVREpsalU3dWR6VnQ5eFNzTUN0RHc?oc=5","confidence":78,"severity":"medium"},{"kind":"event","id":"google-news-rss-global-feed-trade-nebraska-extension-hosts-drought-management-webinar-for-beef-producers-the-fence-pos-2026-05-22","title":"Nebraska Extension hosts drought management webinar for beef producers - The Fence Post","detail":"Public item selected because weather or forage conditions can change pasture days, water checks, and sale pressure: Nebraska Extension hosts drought management webinar for beef producers - The Fence Post","date":"2026-05-22T18:35:54.000Z","sourceId":"google-news-rss","sourceName":"Google News public search RSS","sourceUrl":"https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiqAFBVV95cUxPVkplSWNGWWxtTlJVVjBiak1TS1B0NWpjQnRWZThhTjNCMDdIT3MyY2V1UzR3Ql93SlhsREFVUVlQemVNZEtLd3JYWEhfajh6WlBCVkIzNjl6UmMtVVVPWGYxbWV2S3JwMDh2aWFBOEF0WkZpcmtGT3p1bWJxY2FueUZBZ20tMVQ2M21VYTNwUF85dTh4Q0p3T2pVajBRdE5wR1dpbHF5Nzg?oc=5","confidence":78,"severity":"medium"}],"sourceGraph":[{"id":"ers-feed-grains-to-breakeven","sourceId":"usda-ers-feed-grains","sourceName":"USDA ERS Feed Grains Database","signal":"Feed grain supply, animal unit indexes, rail rates, and grain shipments","driver":"Feed breakeven and logistics pressure","affects":"Feeder bids, ration substitutions, hay demand, and feedlot entry weights","producerDecision":"Compare feed grain and transport trends before buying feeders or delaying sale dates.","lag":"2-8 weeks","confidence":84,"regions":["north-america"],"sectors":["feed","crops","beef","dairy"]},{"id":"wasde-feed-balance-to-cattle-margin","sourceId":"usda-wasde","sourceName":"USDA WASDE historical data","signal":"Corn, soybean meal, hay, and dairy/feed balance sheets","driver":"Forward feed availability and ration cost","affects":"Backgrounding margin, finishing days, milk-feed spread, and crop planting incentives","producerDecision":"Use monthly balance-sheet revisions to decide whether to lock feed, sell lighter, or carry cattle longer.","lag":"1-12 months","confidence":87,"regions":["north-america","latin-america","oceania","europe","africa-asia"],"sectors":["feed","crops","beef","dairy"]},{"id":"feed-energy-to-breakeven","sourceId":"world-bank-pink-sheet","sourceName":"World Bank commodity prices","signal":"Beef, energy, fertilizer, and feed commodity prices","driver":"Feed, fertilizer, freight, and pasture input cost","affects":"Backgrounding breakeven, finishing margin, hay cost, and stocking decision","producerDecision":"Reprice the next 50 lb or 25 kg before buying feed or delaying sales.","lag":"1-6 weeks","confidence":80,"regions":["north-america","latin-america","oceania","europe","africa-asia"],"sectors":["feed","beef","dairy"]},{"id":"fas-trade-to-basis","sourceId":"usda-fas","sourceName":"USDA FAS Open Data","signal":"Exports, imports, PSD, GAIN reports","driver":"Export pull and trade-policy pressure","affects":"Processor bids, regional basis, offal value, and cull cow demand","producerDecision":"Watch buyer access before committing volume into a weak local bid.","lag":"1-6 weeks","confidence":84,"regions":["north-america","latin-america","oceania","europe","africa-asia"],"sectors":["beef","dairy"]},{"id":"nass-inventory-to-cycle","sourceId":"usda-nass","sourceName":"USDA NASS QuickStats and ESMIS reports","signal":"Inventory, placements, pasture, hay, crop data","driver":"Herd cycle, feeder supply, and feed availability","affects":"Replacement strategy, retained heifers, and forward feeder supply","producerDecision":"Decide whether scarce replacement animals are worth keeping or selling.","lag":"1 month to 1 year","confidence":86,"regions":["north-america"],"sectors":["beef","dairy","feed"]},{"id":"cftc-positioning-to-hedge-feed-risk","sourceId":"cftc-cot","sourceName":"CFTC Commitments of Traders","signal":"Managed money, commercial, and open-interest positioning in live cattle, feeder cattle, corn, and soybean meal","driver":"Speculative positioning and commercial hedge pressure","affects":"Hedge timing, basis risk, feeder bids, feed coverage, and retained-ownership risk","producerDecision":"Use COT positioning as a weekly stress check before leaving cattle, corn, or soybean-meal exposure unprotected.","lag":"Same week to 8 weeks","confidence":80,"regions":["north-america"],"sectors":["beef","dairy","feed","crops"]},{"id":"drought-to-retention","sourceId":"us-drought-monitor","sourceName":"U.S. Drought Monitor","signal":"Drought class, weekly narrative, pasture stress","driver":"Forage pressure and early liquidation risk","affects":"Cow retention, hay demand, calf movement, and replacement price","producerDecision":"Compare forage inventory against the value of carrying cattle longer.","lag":"1-4 weeks","confidence":88,"regions":["north-america"],"sectors":["beef","dairy","feed"]},{"id":"open-meteo-forecast-to-forward-forage","sourceId":"open-meteo-forecast","sourceName":"Open-Meteo global weather forecast","signal":"7-day precipitation and temperature forecast by geo node","driver":"Forward pasture, heat, water, and forage pressure","affects":"Sale timing, feed coverage, water checks, milk yield, weight gain, and crop-feed risk","producerDecision":"Use the next-week rain and heat forecast before moving cattle, buying hay, changing supplement, or holding weight.","lag":"0-14 days","confidence":78,"regions":["north-america","latin-america","oceania","europe","africa-asia"],"sectors":["beef","dairy","feed","crops"]},{"id":"ams-price-to-sale-window","sourceId":"usda-ams","sourceName":"USDA AMS MyMarketNews","signal":"Cash cattle, feeder cattle, auctions, boxed beef","driver":"Local bid strength and packer leverage","affects":"Sale timing, weight class target, and hedge urgency","producerDecision":"Sell now, add pounds, or price-protect cattle before bids soften.","lag":"0-2 days","confidence":91,"regions":["north-america"],"sectors":["beef","dairy"]},{"id":"export-sales-to-buyer-pull","sourceId":"usda-esr","sourceName":"USDA Export Sales Reporting","signal":"Weekly export commitments and shipments by commodity and destination","driver":"Export buyer pull before customs data confirms it","affects":"Beef cutout support, grain basis, local processor bids, and feed ingredient demand","producerDecision":"Watch export-sales acceleration as an early signal for stronger cash bids or tighter feed.","lag":"1-5 weeks","confidence":83,"regions":["north-america","latin-america","africa-asia"],"sectors":["beef","feed","crops","dairy"]}],"historicalDrivers":[{"id":"crop-balance-to-feed-margin","driver":"Crop balance becomes feed margin","lookbackWindow":"90 days to 5 years","forwardWindow":"1-18 months","lag":"Acreage and crop condition lead production; production leads feed price; feed price leads cattle and milk margins.","leadingSignals":["Acreage, crop progress, and soil moisture shift together","Balance-sheet revisions tighten ending stocks","Rail, freight, or port pressure widens local basis"],"forwardEffects":["Backgrounding and finishing margins compress","Dairy ration spend rises before cull flow changes","Crop producers may gain price opportunity while livestock producers face cost risk"],"producerDecision":"Use the crop balance to decide feed coverage, hay buying, grain pricing, and stocking rate.","confidence":84,"sourceIds":["usda-wasde","usda-nass","usda-ers-feed-grains","conab","comex-stat","mexico-siap","faostat","gdelt-global-news"],"regions":["north-america","latin-america","oceania","europe","africa-asia"],"sectors":["feed","crops","beef","dairy"]},{"id":"pasture-stress-to-sale-runs","driver":"Pasture stress becomes sale pressure","lookbackWindow":"30-120 days","forwardWindow":"2-16 weeks","lag":"Pasture stress usually hits feed buying first, sale runs second, and replacement prices last.","leadingSignals":["Soil moisture drops below seasonal median","Pasture condition ratings deteriorate","Hay and supplement quotes firm before auction volume rises"],"forwardEffects":["More calves and cull cows move earlier","Replacement animals face discount risk in dry regions","Feed cost can erase the value of extra gain"],"producerDecision":"Move from calendar-based selling to forage-days and feed-margin selling.","confidence":86,"sourceIds":["us-drought-monitor","nasa-power","copernicus-cds","bom-climate","brazil-inmet","mexico-siap","gdelt-global-news"],"regions":["north-america","latin-america","oceania","europe","africa-asia"],"sectors":["beef","dairy","feed","crops"]},{"id":"positioning-to-hedge-margin","driver":"Futures positioning becomes hedge and margin pressure","lookbackWindow":"4-52 weeks","forwardWindow":"1-8 weeks","lag":"COT positioning shifts before many cash producers feel the basis move; the risk shows up later in hedge cost, feed coverage, and retained ownership.","leadingSignals":["Managed money exits long cattle exposure","Corn or soybean-meal shorts cover quickly","Open interest changes while cash bids lag"],"forwardEffects":["Hedge urgency rises before local bids fully reprice","Feed coverage becomes more valuable when feed shorts unwind","Retained ownership gets riskier when cattle longs liquidate"],"producerDecision":"Check COT before deciding to hold unhedged weight, delay feed coverage, or assume today’s basis will still be there next month.","confidence":78,"sourceIds":["cftc-cot","cme-livestock","usda-ams","world-bank-pink-sheet"],"regions":["north-america"],"sectors":["beef","dairy","feed","crops"]},{"id":"export-pull-to-local-basis","driver":"Export pull changes local basis","lookbackWindow":"4-52 weeks","forwardWindow":"1-12 weeks","lag":"Export sales lead shipments; shipments lead customs totals; customs totals confirm structural demand.","leadingSignals":["Weekly sales or attaché reports change before monthly trade files","Destination concentration rises","Currency makes local supply cheaper or dearer to importers"],"forwardEffects":["Processor bids widen or narrow by export access","Feed and crop basis shifts around ports and corridors","Sanitary or border events can erase the signal quickly"],"producerDecision":"Price cattle and crops with local basis plus destination exposure, not only the national headline.","confidence":82,"sourceIds":["usda-esr","usda-fas","un-comtrade","brazil-mapa-agrostat","comex-stat","mexico-siap","brazil-bcb-sgs","gdelt-global-news"],"regions":["north-america","latin-america","oceania","europe","africa-asia"],"sectors":["beef","dairy","feed","crops"]},{"id":"heat-load-to-milk-gain","driver":"Heat load becomes milk and weight-gain drag","lookbackWindow":"7-90 days","forwardWindow":"Same day to 12 weeks","lag":"Heat and humidity affect intake first, then milk, weight gain, conception, and sale timing.","leadingSignals":["Temperature-humidity pressure rises for multiple days","Water demand and night cooling fail to reset","Feed intake falls before production reports update"],"forwardEffects":["Milk output and components weaken","Finishing cattle gain less efficiently","Water, shade, and ration timing become margin controls"],"producerDecision":"Move heat mitigation and ration timing ahead of sale-weight or milk-output assumptions.","confidence":82,"sourceIds":["nasa-power","noaa-cpc","copernicus-cds","brazil-inmet","world-bank-climate"],"regions":["north-america","latin-america","oceania","europe","africa-asia"],"sectors":["dairy","beef","feed","crops"]},{"id":"dairy-margin-to-beef-supply","driver":"Dairy margins become beef supply","lookbackWindow":"4-26 weeks","forwardWindow":"2-20 weeks","lag":"Milk price and feed cost hit dairy margins before cull cow flow and beef supply respond.","leadingSignals":["Milk-feed spread narrows","Dairy auction prices weaken","Feed and energy prices rise together"],"forwardEffects":["Cull cows enter beef supply","Replacement appetite weakens","Milk output can fall after ration cuts"],"producerDecision":"Reprice ration, cull timing, and replacement purchases before monthly milk checks settle.","confidence":81,"sourceIds":["eu-milk","gdt-events","usda-ers-dairy","usda-ams","mexico-siap","world-bank-pink-sheet","ibge-sidra","brazil-bcb-sgs","gdelt-global-news"],"regions":["north-america","latin-america","oceania","europe","africa-asia"],"sectors":["dairy","beef","feed"]},{"id":"herd-concentration-to-basis","driver":"Regional herd concentration becomes basis pressure","lookbackWindow":"1-10 years","forwardWindow":"1 quarter to 2 years","lag":"Herd concentration changes local sale pressure slowly, but weather, freight, and export bids can pull that pressure into the next quarter.","leadingSignals":["State herd share rises in export-linked regions","Freight or pasture pressure diverges by state","Local cattle basis moves before national averages"],"forwardEffects":["Regional sale pressure can widen local discounts","Export-heavy states can pull cattle away from domestic buyers","Feed and crop corridors feel freight and pasture stress together"],"producerDecision":"Price cattle against state-level supply, freight, pasture, and export basis before trusting the national cattle headline.","confidence":80,"sourceIds":["ibge-sidra","cepea-boi","mexico-siap","brazil-bcb-sgs","comex-stat"],"regions":["latin-america"],"sectors":["beef","feed","crops"]},{"id":"geopolitical-shock-to-feed-freight","driver":"Geopolitical shocks become feed, freight, and basis risk","lookbackWindow":"Same day to 3 years","forwardWindow":"Same week to 12 months","lag":"Conflict, sanctions, or shipping-route stress can move fuel, fertilizer, grain, and freight before farmgate cattle or milk prices adjust.","leadingSignals":["Red Sea, Black Sea, canal, port, or border headlines mention grain, fertilizer, fuel, or livestock routes","Freight, fuel, fertilizer, or grain indexes move before delivered feed quotes reset","Destination or route risk weakens the translation from global price to local bid"],"forwardEffects":["Delivered feed and fertilizer become more expensive or less reliable","Local basis can diverge from headline futures or export values","Local feed substitution, earlier sale timing, or destination hedging becomes valuable"],"producerDecision":"Treat global conflict and shipping risk as a delivered-cost problem before changing sale timing, feed coverage, or crop-input purchases.","confidence":79,"sourceIds":["gdelt-global-news","reliefweb-agriculture","fao-giews","suez-canal-authority","panama-canal-authority","baltic-exchange","world-bank-pink-sheet","eia-fuel","un-comtrade","usda-oce-port-grain"],"regions":["north-america","latin-america","oceania","europe","africa-asia"],"sectors":["beef","dairy","feed","crops"]}],"scenarios":[{"id":"feed-cost-spike","name":"Feed cost spike","sector":"feed","defaultIntensity":35,"description":"Corn, hay, soybean meal, fuel, or freight costs rise faster than cattle value.","producerDecision":"Recalculate whether the next gain period is still worth feeding.","sourceIds":["usda-ams","usda-nass","usda-ers-feed-grains","conab","mexico-siap","world-bank-pink-sheet","eia-fuel","cftc-cot","gdelt-global-news"],"outputs":[{"label":"Feed breakeven pressure","baseline":34,"unit":"%","perIntensityPoint":0.66,"direction":"higher-is-risk"},{"label":"Margin cushion","baseline":24,"unit":"%","perIntensityPoint":-0.45,"direction":"lower-is-risk"},{"label":"Freight sensitivity","baseline":18,"unit":"%","perIntensityPoint":0.31,"direction":"higher-is-risk"}]},{"id":"crop-yield-shock","name":"Crop yield shock","sector":"crops","defaultIntensity":38,"description":"Soil moisture, heat, and rainfall patterns point to lower crop yields before harvest data is published.","producerDecision":"Decide whether to protect feed needs, price grain, adjust planting, or buy hay before local shortages are obvious.","sourceIds":["copernicus-cds","usda-wasde","usda-nass","usda-ers-feed-grains","nasa-power","world-bank-climate","cftc-cot","gdelt-global-news"],"outputs":[{"label":"Feed cost pressure","baseline":24,"unit":"%","perIntensityPoint":0.64,"direction":"higher-is-risk"},{"label":"Yield downside","baseline":18,"unit":"%","perIntensityPoint":0.52,"direction":"higher-is-risk"},{"label":"Hedging urgency","baseline":31,"unit":"%","perIntensityPoint":0.48,"direction":"higher-is-risk"}]},{"id":"drought-shock","name":"Drought tightens forage","sector":"feed","defaultIntensity":42,"description":"Pasture weakens, hay gets tighter, and more cows or calves can move earlier than planned.","producerDecision":"Check forage inventory, water, and the value of selling lighter cattle before everyone else is forced to.","sourceIds":["us-drought-monitor","noaa-climate","nasa-power","bom-climate","mexico-siap","gdelt-global-news"],"outputs":[{"label":"Hay cost risk","baseline":28,"unit":"%","perIntensityPoint":0.72,"direction":"higher-is-risk"},{"label":"Early sale pressure","baseline":22,"unit":"%","perIntensityPoint":0.58,"direction":"higher-is-risk"},{"label":"Pasture carrying days","baseline":64,"unit":"days","perIntensityPoint":-0.42,"direction":"lower-is-risk"}]},{"id":"fertilizer-energy-squeeze","name":"Fertilizer and energy squeeze","sector":"crops","defaultIntensity":32,"description":"Fertilizer, diesel, freight, and credit costs rise before crop or cattle prices fully adjust.","producerDecision":"Stress-test planting, feed procurement, and replacement purchases against higher working-capital cost.","sourceIds":["world-bank-pink-sheet","bls-ag-inputs","eia-fuel","imf-ifs","gdelt-global-news"],"outputs":[{"label":"Input-cost drag","baseline":29,"unit":"%","perIntensityPoint":0.7,"direction":"higher-is-risk"},{"label":"Planting margin","baseline":46,"unit":"%","perIntensityPoint":-0.43,"direction":"lower-is-risk"},{"label":"Cash-flow risk","baseline":21,"unit":"%","perIntensityPoint":0.54,"direction":"higher-is-risk"}]},{"id":"milk-margin-squeeze","name":"Milk margin squeeze","sector":"dairy","defaultIntensity":33,"description":"Milk price weakens while feed, energy, or cull cow pressure rises.","producerDecision":"Reprice feed, cull timing, and replacement animals before ration spend outruns milk value.","sourceIds":["eu-milk","usda-ams","mexico-siap","eurostat-agri","world-bank-pink-sheet","gdelt-global-news"],"outputs":[{"label":"Milk-feed squeeze","baseline":31,"unit":"%","perIntensityPoint":0.62,"direction":"higher-is-risk"},{"label":"Cull flow","baseline":18,"unit":"%","perIntensityPoint":0.43,"direction":"higher-is-risk"},{"label":"Replacement appetite","baseline":42,"unit":"%","perIntensityPoint":-0.39,"direction":"lower-is-risk"}]},{"id":"export-disruption","name":"Export or border disruption","sector":"beef","defaultIntensity":30,"description":"A sanitary, policy, currency, or logistics event changes buyer access.","producerDecision":"Do not assume local bids are stable when export channels or border rules move.","sourceIds":["usda-fas","comex-stat","mexico-siap","woah-wahis","argentina-senasa","cftc-cot","gdelt-global-news"],"outputs":[{"label":"Basis risk","baseline":26,"unit":"%","perIntensityPoint":0.72,"direction":"higher-is-risk"},{"label":"Cull cow pressure","baseline":18,"unit":"%","perIntensityPoint":0.33,"direction":"higher-is-risk"},{"label":"Buyer competition","baseline":46,"unit":"%","perIntensityPoint":-0.51,"direction":"lower-is-risk"}]},{"id":"disease-alert","name":"Disease alert or movement hold","sector":"animal-health","defaultIntensity":28,"description":"Official animal health alerts can change movement, buyer confidence, mortality risk, and export access.","producerDecision":"Treat health status as a market signal before buying, moving, or selling cattle.","sourceIds":["woah-wahis","usda-aphis","argentina-senasa","gdelt-global-news"],"outputs":[{"label":"Movement friction","baseline":16,"unit":"%","perIntensityPoint":0.88,"direction":"higher-is-risk"},{"label":"Buyer discount risk","baseline":14,"unit":"%","perIntensityPoint":0.46,"direction":"higher-is-risk"},{"label":"Biosecurity spend","baseline":10,"unit":"%","perIntensityPoint":0.35,"direction":"higher-is-risk"}]},{"id":"geopolitical-shipping-shock","name":"War and shipping disruption","sector":"feed","defaultIntensity":37,"description":"Conflict, sanctions, canal disruption, or route risk changes grain, fertilizer, fuel, freight, and protein trade costs.","producerDecision":"Before holding cattle for more gain, check whether war or shipping risk has changed delivered feed, fertilizer, freight, or buyer access.","sourceIds":["gdelt-global-news","reliefweb-agriculture","fao-giews","suez-canal-authority","panama-canal-authority","baltic-exchange","world-bank-pink-sheet","eia-fuel","un-comtrade","usda-oce-port-grain"],"outputs":[{"label":"Delivered-input risk","baseline":24,"unit":"%","perIntensityPoint":0.69,"direction":"higher-is-risk"},{"label":"Basis and freight drag","baseline":21,"unit":"%","perIntensityPoint":0.64,"direction":"higher-is-risk"},{"label":"Local substitution value","baseline":30,"unit":"%","perIntensityPoint":0.35,"direction":"higher-is-opportunity"}]}],"relatedCounts":{"observations":106,"impacts":125,"temporalSignals":2,"events":84,"entities":17,"causalPaths":55},"citationText":"Southern Plains (North America) uses 274 evidence items, 39 public source families, and scenarios Feed cost spike, Crop yield shock, Drought tightens forage, Fertilizer and energy squeeze.","canonicalDataUrl":"https://cattleweightestimation.com/market-pulse/geographies.json"}]}