{"name":"Cattle Market Pulse source-to-scenario graph","description":"Compact filterable graph of public source families, current signals, causal source links, historical lead-lag drivers, forward scenarios, and producer actions.","generatedAt":"2026-06-06T22:10:32.042Z","snapshotGeneratedAt":"2026-06-06T11:33:23.605Z","snapshotWindow":{"startDate":"2026-05-28","endDate":"2026-06-03"},"updateCadence":"daily","isAccessibleForFree":true,"canonicalUrl":"https://cattleweightestimation.com/market-pulse/graph.json","filters":{"region":"all","sector":"all","lang":"en","limit":1},"summary":{"paths":1,"nodes":6,"edges":5,"sourceFamilies":1,"historicalDrivers":3,"scenarios":5,"fullGraphNodes":1705,"fullGraphEdges":23662,"fullCausalPaths":160},"queryExamples":["https://cattleweightestimation.com/market-pulse/graph.json?region=north-america&sector=beef&lang=en","https://cattleweightestimation.com/market-pulse/graph.json?region=latin-america&sector=dairy&lang=es","https://cattleweightestimation.com/market-pulse/graph.json?region=africa-asia&sector=feed&lang=pt"],"paths":[{"id":"path-africa-asia-event-reliefweb-agriculture-rss-kenya-key-message-update-long-rains-ease-conditions-but-cr","regionId":"africa-asia","sectors":["beef","dairy","feed","crops","animal-health"],"signalType":"event","signalId":"reliefweb-agriculture-rss-kenya-key-message-update-long-rains-ease-conditions-but-crisis-ipc-phase-3-to-persis-2026-06-05","sourceId":"reliefweb-agriculture","sourceName":"ReliefWeb agriculture and disaster reports","sourceUrl":"https://reliefweb.int/report/kenya/kenya-key-message-update-long-rains-ease-conditions-crisis-ipc-phase-3-persist-pastoral-areas-may-september-2026","sourceCategory":"Regional","severity":"high","confidence":82,"score":161,"updatedAt":"2026-06-05T02:36:56.000Z","title":"Africa and Asia: Kenya - Key Message Update: Long rains ease conditions but Crisis (IPC Phase 3) to persist in pastoral areas, May - September 2026","currentSignal":"ReliefWeb agriculture and disaster reports published a weather or forage signal. Confirm it against local water, hay, and pasture days before stocking changes.","howItAffects":"Regional event, policy, and local-market context: Local prices, buyer behavior, public policy, logistics, input access, and producer confidence","pastPattern":"Same day to 3 years history usually shows up in Same week to 12 months: Delivered feed and fertilizer become more expensive or less reliable Local basis can diverge from headline futures or export values Local feed substitution, earlier sale timing, or destination hedging becomes valuable","forwardScenario":"War and shipping disruption: Conflict, sanctions, canal disruption, or route risk changes grain, fertilizer, fuel, freight, and protein trade costs.","producerDecision":"Convert the signal into forage days, water checks, and a sale-or-hold threshold.","citationText":"Africa and Asia: Kenya - Key Message Update: Long rains ease conditions but Crisis (IPC Phase 3) to persist in pastoral areas, May - September 2026 connects ReliefWeb agriculture and disaster reports with 5 causal links, 3 historical patterns, and 5 scenarios.","nodes":[{"id":"source:reliefweb-agriculture","kind":"source","label":"ReliefWeb agriculture and disaster reports","detail":"Global drought, flood, conflict, animal health, food security, and agriculture disruption reports"},{"id":"event:reliefweb-agriculture-rss-kenya-key-message-update-long-rains-ease-conditions-but-crisis-ipc-phase-3-to-persis-2026-06-05","kind":"signal","label":"Kenya - Key Message Update: Long rains ease conditions but Crisis (IPC Phase 3) to persist in pastoral areas, May - September 2026","detail":"ReliefWeb agriculture and disaster reports published a weather or forage signal. Confirm it against local water, hay, and pasture days before stocking changes."},{"id":"edge:reliefweb-agriculture-category-causal-edge","kind":"causal-edge","label":"Regional event, policy, and local-market context","detail":"Use the regional source to localize national headlines before changing the farm plan."},{"id":"driver:geopolitical-shock-to-feed-freight","kind":"historical-driver","label":"Geopolitical shocks become feed, freight, and basis risk","detail":"Same day to 3 years history usually shows up in Same week to 12 months: Delivered feed and fertilizer become more expensive or less reliable Local basis can diverge from headline futures or export values Local feed substitution, earlier sale timing, or destination hedging becomes valuable"},{"id":"scenario:geopolitical-shipping-shock","kind":"scenario","label":"War and shipping disruption","detail":"Before holding cattle for more gain, check whether war or shipping risk has changed delivered feed, fertilizer, freight, or buyer access."},{"id":"action:reliefweb-agriculture-rss-kenya-key-message-update-long-rains-ease-conditions-but-crisis-ipc-phase-3-to-persis-2026-06-05","kind":"producer-action","label":"Producer decision","detail":"Convert the signal into forage days, water checks, and a sale-or-hold threshold."}],"edges":[{"id":"path-africa-asia-event-reliefweb-agriculture-rss-kenya-key-message-update-long-rains-ease-conditions-but-cr:source:reliefweb-agriculture->reports->event:reliefweb-agriculture-rss-kenya-key-message-update-long-rains-ease-conditions-but-crisis-ipc-phase-3-to-persis-2026-06-05","from":"source:reliefweb-agriculture","to":"event:reliefweb-agriculture-rss-kenya-key-message-update-long-rains-ease-conditions-but-crisis-ipc-phase-3-to-persis-2026-06-05","relation":"reports","pathId":"path-africa-asia-event-reliefweb-agriculture-rss-kenya-key-message-update-long-rains-ease-conditions-but-cr","confidence":82,"evidenceIds":["reliefweb-agriculture-rss-kenya-key-message-update-long-rains-ease-conditions-but-crisis-ipc-phase-3-to-persis-2026-06-05"]},{"id":"path-africa-asia-event-reliefweb-agriculture-rss-kenya-key-message-update-long-rains-ease-conditions-but-cr:event:reliefweb-agriculture-rss-kenya-key-message-update-long-rains-ease-conditions-but-crisis-ipc-phase-3-to-persis-2026-06-05->explains-through->edge:reliefweb-agriculture-category-causal-edge","from":"event:reliefweb-agriculture-rss-kenya-key-message-update-long-rains-ease-conditions-but-crisis-ipc-phase-3-to-persis-2026-06-05","to":"edge:reliefweb-agriculture-category-causal-edge","relation":"explains-through","pathId":"path-africa-asia-event-reliefweb-agriculture-rss-kenya-key-message-update-long-rains-ease-conditions-but-cr","confidence":82,"evidenceIds":["reliefweb-agriculture-rss-kenya-key-message-update-long-rains-ease-conditions-but-crisis-ipc-phase-3-to-persis-2026-06-05"]},{"id":"path-africa-asia-event-reliefweb-agriculture-rss-kenya-key-message-update-long-rains-ease-conditions-but-cr:edge:reliefweb-agriculture-category-causal-edge->compares-to-history->driver:geopolitical-shock-to-feed-freight","from":"edge:reliefweb-agriculture-category-causal-edge","to":"driver:geopolitical-shock-to-feed-freight","relation":"compares-to-history","pathId":"path-africa-asia-event-reliefweb-agriculture-rss-kenya-key-message-update-long-rains-ease-conditions-but-cr","confidence":82,"evidenceIds":["reliefweb-agriculture-rss-kenya-key-message-update-long-rains-ease-conditions-but-crisis-ipc-phase-3-to-persis-2026-06-05"]},{"id":"path-africa-asia-event-reliefweb-agriculture-rss-kenya-key-message-update-long-rains-ease-conditions-but-cr:driver:geopolitical-shock-to-feed-freight->tests-scenario->scenario:geopolitical-shipping-shock","from":"driver:geopolitical-shock-to-feed-freight","to":"scenario:geopolitical-shipping-shock","relation":"tests-scenario","pathId":"path-africa-asia-event-reliefweb-agriculture-rss-kenya-key-message-update-long-rains-ease-conditions-but-cr","confidence":82,"evidenceIds":["reliefweb-agriculture-rss-kenya-key-message-update-long-rains-ease-conditions-but-crisis-ipc-phase-3-to-persis-2026-06-05"]},{"id":"path-africa-asia-event-reliefweb-agriculture-rss-kenya-key-message-update-long-rains-ease-conditions-but-cr:scenario:geopolitical-shipping-shock->guides-action->action:reliefweb-agriculture-rss-kenya-key-message-update-long-rains-ease-conditions-but-crisis-ipc-phase-3-to-persis-2026-06-05","from":"scenario:geopolitical-shipping-shock","to":"action:reliefweb-agriculture-rss-kenya-key-message-update-long-rains-ease-conditions-but-crisis-ipc-phase-3-to-persis-2026-06-05","relation":"guides-action","pathId":"path-africa-asia-event-reliefweb-agriculture-rss-kenya-key-message-update-long-rains-ease-conditions-but-cr","confidence":82,"evidenceIds":["reliefweb-agriculture-rss-kenya-key-message-update-long-rains-ease-conditions-but-crisis-ipc-phase-3-to-persis-2026-06-05"]}],"sourceGraph":[{"id":"reliefweb-agriculture-category-causal-edge","sourceId":"reliefweb-agriculture","sourceName":"ReliefWeb agriculture and disaster reports","signal":"ReliefWeb agriculture and disaster reports: drought reports, flood reports, conflict disruption, food security","driver":"Regional event, policy, and local-market context","affects":"Local prices, buyer behavior, public policy, logistics, input access, and producer confidence","producerDecision":"Use the regional source to localize national headlines before changing the farm plan.","lag":"Same day to 1 year","confidence":69,"regions":["north-america","latin-america","oceania","europe","africa-asia"],"sectors":["beef","dairy","feed","crops","animal-health"]},{"id":"gdelt-news-to-market-event-risk","sourceId":"gdelt-global-news","sourceName":"GDELT global event monitor","signal":"Global public news mentions of livestock, feed, dairy, crops, disease, fuel, trade, and policy shocks","driver":"Early event awareness before official reports update","affects":"Buyer access, disease movement risk, export demand, feed input cost, weather pressure, and local sale timing","producerDecision":"Use public event signals as watch items, then confirm with official data before changing cattle, milk, feed, or crop commitments.","lag":"Same day to 8 weeks","confidence":72,"regions":["north-america","latin-america","oceania","europe","africa-asia"],"sectors":["beef","dairy","feed","animal-health","crops"]},{"id":"eia-diesel-to-freight-feed-cost","sourceId":"eia-fuel","sourceName":"U.S. EIA fuel prices","signal":"Weekly U.S. No. 2 diesel retail price","driver":"Freight and feed-delivery cost pressure","affects":"Hay hauling, feed delivery, yardage, crop inputs, feeder bids, and sale timing","producerDecision":"Reprice delivered feed, hay, and cattle hauling before deciding whether extra weight still pays.","lag":"Same week to 8 weeks","confidence":80,"regions":["north-america"],"sectors":["beef","dairy","feed","crops"]},{"id":"feed-energy-to-breakeven","sourceId":"world-bank-pink-sheet","sourceName":"World Bank commodity prices","signal":"Beef, energy, fertilizer, and feed commodity prices","driver":"Feed, fertilizer, freight, and pasture input cost","affects":"Backgrounding breakeven, finishing margin, hay cost, and stocking decision","producerDecision":"Reprice the next 50 lb or 25 kg before buying feed or delaying sales.","lag":"1-6 weeks","confidence":80,"regions":["north-america","latin-america","oceania","europe","africa-asia"],"sectors":["feed","beef","dairy"]},{"id":"wasde-feed-balance-to-cattle-margin","sourceId":"usda-wasde","sourceName":"USDA WASDE historical data","signal":"Corn, soybean meal, hay, and dairy/feed balance sheets","driver":"Forward feed availability and ration cost","affects":"Backgrounding margin, finishing days, milk-feed spread, and crop planting incentives","producerDecision":"Use monthly balance-sheet revisions to decide whether to lock feed, sell lighter, or carry cattle longer.","lag":"1-12 months","confidence":87,"regions":["north-america","latin-america","oceania","europe","africa-asia"],"sectors":["feed","crops","beef","dairy"]}],"historicalDrivers":[{"id":"geopolitical-shock-to-feed-freight","driver":"Geopolitical shocks become feed, freight, and basis risk","lookbackWindow":"Same day to 3 years","forwardWindow":"Same week to 12 months","lag":{"en":"Conflict, sanctions, or shipping-route stress can move fuel, fertilizer, grain, and freight before farmgate cattle or milk prices adjust.","es":"Conflicto, sanciones o rutas marítimas pueden mover combustible, fertilizante, grano y flete antes del precio rural.","pt":"Conflito, sanções ou rotas marítimas podem mover combustível, fertilizante, grão e frete antes do preço rural."},"leadingSignals":["Red Sea, Black Sea, canal, port, or border headlines mention grain, fertilizer, fuel, or livestock routes","Freight, fuel, fertilizer, or grain indexes move before delivered feed quotes reset","Destination or route risk weakens the translation from global price to local bid"],"forwardEffects":["Delivered feed and fertilizer become more expensive or less reliable","Local basis can diverge from headline futures or export values","Local feed substitution, earlier sale timing, or destination hedging becomes valuable"],"producerDecision":"Treat global conflict and shipping risk as a delivered-cost problem before changing sale timing, feed coverage, or crop-input purchases.","confidence":79,"sourceIds":["gdelt-global-news","reliefweb-agriculture","fao-giews","suez-canal-authority","panama-canal-authority","baltic-exchange","world-bank-pink-sheet","eia-fuel","un-comtrade","usda-oce-port-grain"],"regions":["north-america","latin-america","oceania","europe","africa-asia"],"sectors":["beef","dairy","feed","crops"]},{"id":"logistics-to-local-basis","driver":"Logistics shocks become local basis gaps","lookbackWindow":"7 days to 3 years","forwardWindow":"Same week to 9 months","lag":{"en":"Freight and port disruption can widen local basis before national price series register the stress.","es":"Flete y puertos pueden abrir base local antes de que el precio nacional lo refleje.","pt":"Frete e portos podem abrir base local antes do preço nacional refletir."},"leadingSignals":["Fuel, port, rail, or border news moves before farmgate averages","Delivered feed diverges from board or benchmark price","Destination prices stop translating to local bids"],"forwardEffects":["Cattle, hay, milk, grain, and fertilizer spreads widen by corridor","Local arbitrage opportunities can appear","Remote producers face discount risk even in strong headline markets"],"producerDecision":"Price the delivered destination, not the benchmark, before moving cattle, feed, milk, or crop volume.","confidence":78,"sourceIds":["eia-fuel","un-comtrade","brazil-mapa-agrostat","comex-stat","gdelt-global-news"],"regions":["north-america","latin-america","oceania","europe","africa-asia"],"sectors":["beef","dairy","feed","crops"]},{"id":"crop-balance-to-feed-margin","driver":"Crop balance becomes feed margin","lookbackWindow":"90 days to 5 years","forwardWindow":"1-18 months","lag":{"en":"Acreage and crop condition lead production; production leads feed price; feed price leads cattle and milk margins.","es":"Área y condición del cultivo adelantan producción; producción adelanta alimento; alimento adelanta márgenes ganaderos y lecheros.","pt":"Área e condição da cultura antecipam produção; produção antecipa ração; ração antecipa margens pecuárias e leiteiras."},"leadingSignals":["Acreage, crop progress, and soil moisture shift together","Balance-sheet revisions tighten ending stocks","Rail, freight, or port pressure widens local basis"],"forwardEffects":["Backgrounding and finishing margins compress","Dairy ration spend rises before cull flow changes","Crop producers may gain price opportunity while livestock producers face cost risk"],"producerDecision":"Use the crop balance to decide feed coverage, hay buying, grain pricing, and stocking rate.","confidence":84,"sourceIds":["usda-wasde","usda-nass","usda-ers-feed-grains","conab","comex-stat","mexico-siap","faostat","gdelt-global-news"],"regions":["north-america","latin-america","oceania","europe","africa-asia"],"sectors":["feed","crops","beef","dairy"]}],"scenarios":[{"id":"geopolitical-shipping-shock","name":"War and shipping disruption","sector":"feed","defaultIntensity":37,"description":"Conflict, sanctions, canal disruption, or route risk changes grain, fertilizer, fuel, freight, and protein trade costs.","producerDecision":"Before holding cattle for more gain, check whether war or shipping risk has changed delivered feed, fertilizer, freight, or buyer access.","sourceIds":["gdelt-global-news","reliefweb-agriculture","fao-giews","suez-canal-authority","panama-canal-authority","baltic-exchange","world-bank-pink-sheet","eia-fuel","un-comtrade","usda-oce-port-grain"],"outputs":[{"label":"Delivered-input risk","baseline":24,"unit":"%","perIntensityPoint":0.69,"direction":"higher-is-risk"},{"label":"Basis and freight drag","baseline":21,"unit":"%","perIntensityPoint":0.64,"direction":"higher-is-risk"},{"label":"Local substitution value","baseline":30,"unit":"%","perIntensityPoint":0.35,"direction":"higher-is-opportunity"}]},{"id":"port-freight-shock","name":"Port and freight shock","sector":"feed","defaultIntensity":36,"description":"Port congestion, fuel, border friction, or shipping disruption widens the gap between farm price and destination price.","producerDecision":"Before moving cattle, hay, grain, milk, or inputs, test whether freight has already eaten the price signal.","sourceIds":["gdelt-global-news","un-comtrade","brazil-mapa-agrostat","eia-fuel","world-bank-pink-sheet"],"outputs":[{"label":"Delivered-feed risk","baseline":26,"unit":"%","perIntensityPoint":0.73,"direction":"higher-is-risk"},{"label":"Export basis drag","baseline":22,"unit":"%","perIntensityPoint":0.59,"direction":"higher-is-risk"},{"label":"Local arbitrage window","baseline":35,"unit":"%","perIntensityPoint":0.32,"direction":"higher-is-opportunity"}]},{"id":"feed-cost-spike","name":"Feed cost spike","sector":"feed","defaultIntensity":35,"description":"Corn, hay, soybean meal, fuel, or freight costs rise faster than cattle value.","producerDecision":"Recalculate whether the next gain period is still worth feeding.","sourceIds":["usda-ams","usda-nass","usda-ers-feed-grains","conab","mexico-siap","world-bank-pink-sheet","eia-fuel","cftc-cot","gdelt-global-news"],"outputs":[{"label":"Feed breakeven pressure","baseline":34,"unit":"%","perIntensityPoint":0.66,"direction":"higher-is-risk"},{"label":"Margin cushion","baseline":24,"unit":"%","perIntensityPoint":-0.45,"direction":"lower-is-risk"},{"label":"Freight sensitivity","baseline":18,"unit":"%","perIntensityPoint":0.31,"direction":"higher-is-risk"}]},{"id":"drought-shock","name":"Drought tightens forage","sector":"feed","defaultIntensity":42,"description":"Pasture weakens, hay gets tighter, and more cows or calves can move earlier than planned.","producerDecision":"Check forage inventory, water, and the value of selling lighter cattle before everyone else is forced to.","sourceIds":["us-drought-monitor","noaa-climate","nasa-power","bom-climate","mexico-siap","gdelt-global-news"],"outputs":[{"label":"Hay cost risk","baseline":28,"unit":"%","perIntensityPoint":0.72,"direction":"higher-is-risk"},{"label":"Early sale pressure","baseline":22,"unit":"%","perIntensityPoint":0.58,"direction":"higher-is-risk"},{"label":"Pasture carrying days","baseline":64,"unit":"days","perIntensityPoint":-0.42,"direction":"lower-is-risk"}]},{"id":"crop-yield-shock","name":"Crop yield shock","sector":"crops","defaultIntensity":38,"description":"Soil moisture, heat, and rainfall patterns point to lower crop yields before harvest data is published.","producerDecision":"Decide whether to protect feed needs, price grain, adjust planting, or buy hay before local shortages are obvious.","sourceIds":["copernicus-cds","usda-wasde","usda-nass","usda-ers-feed-grains","nasa-power","world-bank-climate","cftc-cot","gdelt-global-news"],"outputs":[{"label":"Feed cost pressure","baseline":24,"unit":"%","perIntensityPoint":0.64,"direction":"higher-is-risk"},{"label":"Yield downside","baseline":18,"unit":"%","perIntensityPoint":0.52,"direction":"higher-is-risk"},{"label":"Hedging urgency","baseline":31,"unit":"%","perIntensityPoint":0.48,"direction":"higher-is-risk"}]}],"evidence":[{"id":"reliefweb-agriculture-rss-kenya-key-message-update-long-rains-ease-conditions-but-crisis-ipc-phase-3-to-persis-2026-06-05","kind":"event","title":"Kenya - Key Message Update: Long rains ease conditions but Crisis (IPC Phase 3) to persist in pastoral areas, May - September 2026","summary":"Public item selected because weather or forage conditions can change pasture days, water checks, and sale pressure: Kenya - Key Message Update: Long rains ease conditions but Crisis (IPC Phase 3) to persist in pastoral areas, May - September 2026","sourceId":"reliefweb-agriculture","sourceName":"ReliefWeb agriculture and disaster reports","sourceUrl":"https://reliefweb.int/report/kenya/kenya-key-message-update-long-rains-ease-conditions-crisis-ipc-phase-3-persist-pastoral-areas-may-september-2026","date":"2026-06-05T02:36:56.000Z","confidence":82}]}]}