{"name":"Cattle Market Pulse impact graph","description":"Region-filtered market impact graph. Each path shows how market signals affect cattle prices, feed, weather, logistics, health risk, and producer 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America market impact graph","subtitle":"Ranked paths showing how market signals affect cattle prices, feed, weather, logistics, health risk, and producer decisions.","locale":"en","regionId":"north-america","regionName":"North America","sector":"all","generatedAt":"2026-06-06T23:06:13.538Z","snapshotGeneratedAt":"2026-06-06T11:33:23.605Z","snapshotWindow":{"startDate":"2026-05-28","endDate":"2026-06-03"},"updateCadence":"daily","isAccessibleForFree":true,"canonicalDataUrl":"https://cattleweightestimation.com/market-pulse/impact-graph.json?region=north-america&sector=all&lang=en","canonicalMarkdownUrl":"https://cattleweightestimation.com/market-pulse/impact-graph.md?region=north-america&sector=all&lang=en","summary":{"paths":4,"highSeverity":4,"mediumSeverity":0,"sourceFamilies":2,"evidenceItems":5,"sourceGraphEdges":5,"historicalDrivers":5,"scenarios":6,"localMarkets":6,"liveGraphNodes":1705,"liveGraphEdges":23662},"categoryBoards":[{"category":"Regional","paths":3,"highSeverity":3,"evidenceItems":3,"sourceFamilies":1,"scenarios":3,"averageConfidence":82,"topPathId":"path-north-america-event-fao-newsroom-rss-strait-of-hormuz-time-running-out-to-avert-global-food-security-cri"},{"category":"Weather","paths":1,"highSeverity":1,"evidenceItems":2,"sourceFamilies":1,"scenarios":4,"averageConfidence":88,"topPathId":"path-north-america-impact-open-meteo-water-demand-southern-plains-water-heat-impact"}],"sourceBoards":[{"sourceId":"fao-newsroom","sourceName":"FAO Newsroom","category":"Regional","paths":3,"evidenceItems":3,"graphEdges":3,"historicalDrivers":2,"scenarios":3,"topPathId":"path-north-america-event-fao-newsroom-rss-strait-of-hormuz-time-running-out-to-avert-global-food-security-cri"},{"sourceId":"open-meteo-forecast","sourceName":"Open-Meteo global weather forecast","category":"Weather","paths":1,"evidenceItems":2,"graphEdges":2,"historicalDrivers":3,"scenarios":4,"topPathId":"path-north-america-impact-open-meteo-water-demand-southern-plains-water-heat-impact"}],"scenarioBoards":[{"scenarioId":"feed-cost-spike","scenarioName":"Feed cost spike","sector":"feed","paths":4,"highSeverity":4,"averageConfidence":84,"producerDecision":"Recalculate whether the next gain period is still worth feeding."},{"scenarioId":"geopolitical-shipping-shock","scenarioName":"War and shipping disruption","sector":"feed","paths":3,"highSeverity":3,"averageConfidence":82,"producerDecision":"Before holding cattle for more gain, check whether war or shipping risk has changed delivered feed, fertilizer, freight, or buyer access."},{"scenarioId":"port-freight-shock","scenarioName":"Port and freight shock","sector":"feed","paths":3,"highSeverity":3,"averageConfidence":82,"producerDecision":"Before moving cattle, hay, grain, milk, or inputs, test whether freight has already eaten the price signal."},{"scenarioId":"drought-shock","scenarioName":"Drought tightens forage","sector":"feed","paths":1,"highSeverity":1,"averageConfidence":88,"producerDecision":"Check forage inventory, water, and the value of selling lighter cattle before everyone else is forced to."},{"scenarioId":"milk-margin-squeeze","scenarioName":"Milk margin squeeze","sector":"dairy","paths":1,"highSeverity":1,"averageConfidence":88,"producerDecision":"Reprice feed, cull timing, and replacement animals before ration spend outruns milk value."},{"scenarioId":"crop-yield-shock","scenarioName":"Crop yield 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purchases.","evidence":[{"id":"fao-newsroom-rss-strait-of-hormuz-time-running-out-to-avert-global-food-security-crisis-fao-warns-2026-05-26","kind":"event","title":"Strait of Hormuz: Time running out to avert global food security crisis, FAO warns","summary":"Public item selected because war, sanctions, ports, canals, or shipping routes can change delivered feed, fertilizer, fuel, freight, and buyer access: Strait of Hormuz: Time running out to avert global food security crisis, FAO warns","sourceId":"fao-newsroom","sourceName":"FAO Newsroom","sourceUrl":"https://www.fao.org/newsroom/detail/strait-of-hormuz--time-running-out-to-avert-global-food-security-crisis--fao-warns/en","date":"2026-05-26T12:00:00.000Z","confidence":82}],"sourceGraphEdges":[{"id":"gdelt-news-to-market-event-risk","signal":"Global public news mentions of livestock, feed, dairy, crops, disease, fuel, trade, and policy shocks","driver":"Early event awareness before official reports update","affects":"Buyer access, 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feed or delaying sales.","lag":"1-6 weeks","confidence":80}],"historicalDrivers":[{"id":"geopolitical-shock-to-feed-freight","driver":"Geopolitical shocks become feed, freight, and basis risk","lookbackWindow":"Same day to 3 years","forwardWindow":"Same week to 12 months","lag":"Conflict, sanctions, or shipping-route stress can move fuel, fertilizer, grain, and freight before farmgate cattle or milk prices adjust.","producerDecision":"Treat global conflict and shipping risk as a delivered-cost problem before changing sale timing, feed coverage, or crop-input purchases.","confidence":79},{"id":"logistics-to-local-basis","driver":"Logistics shocks become local basis gaps","lookbackWindow":"7 days to 3 years","forwardWindow":"Same week to 9 months","lag":"Freight and port disruption can widen local basis before national price series register the stress.","producerDecision":"Price the delivered destination, not the benchmark, before moving cattle, feed, milk, or crop 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or shipping-route item. Read it as a delivered feed, fertilizer, fuel, freight, and buyer-access signal."},{"id":"path-north-america-event-fao-newsroom-rss-strait-of-hormuz-time-running-out-to-avert-global-food-security-cri-effect","kind":"effect","label":"How it affects","title":"Early event awareness before official reports update","detail":"Early event awareness before official reports update: Buyer access, disease movement risk, export demand, feed input cost, weather pressure, and local sale timing"},{"id":"path-north-america-event-fao-newsroom-rss-strait-of-hormuz-time-running-out-to-avert-global-food-security-cri-history","kind":"history","label":"Past pattern","title":"Geopolitical shocks become feed, freight, and basis risk","detail":"Same day to 3 years history usually shows up in Same week to 12 months: Delivered feed and fertilizer become more expensive or less reliable Local basis can diverge from headline futures or export values Local feed substitution, earlier sale timing, or destination hedging becomes valuable"},{"id":"path-north-america-event-fao-newsroom-rss-strait-of-hormuz-time-running-out-to-avert-global-food-security-cri-scenario","kind":"scenario","label":"Forward scenario","title":"War and shipping disruption","detail":"War and shipping disruption: Conflict, sanctions, canal disruption, or route risk changes grain, fertilizer, fuel, freight, and protein trade costs."},{"id":"path-north-america-event-fao-newsroom-rss-strait-of-hormuz-time-running-out-to-avert-global-food-security-cri-action","kind":"producer-action","label":"Producer action","title":"Producer action","detail":"Check delivered feed, fertilizer, fuel, freight, and route exposure before holding cattle longer or locking crop-input purchases."}],"citationText":"North America: Strait of Hormuz: Time running out to avert global food security crisis, FAO warns connects FAO Newsroom to the current signal, historical pattern, forward scenario, and producer action."},"paths":[{"id":"path-north-america-event-fao-newsroom-rss-strait-of-hormuz-time-running-out-to-avert-global-food-security-cri","regionId":"north-america","regionName":"North America","sectors":["feed","beef","dairy"],"sourceId":"fao-newsroom","sourceName":"FAO Newsroom","sourceCategory":"Regional","sourceUrl":"https://www.fao.org/newsroom/detail/strait-of-hormuz--time-running-out-to-avert-global-food-security-crisis--fao-warns/en","severity":"high","confidence":82,"score":140,"updatedAt":"2026-05-26T12:00:00.000Z","title":"North America: Strait of Hormuz: Time running out to avert global food security crisis, FAO warns","currentSignal":"FAO Newsroom published a war, sanctions, or shipping-route item. Read it as a delivered feed, fertilizer, fuel, freight, and buyer-access signal.","howItAffects":"Early event awareness before official reports update: Buyer access, disease movement risk, export demand, feed input cost, weather pressure, and local sale timing","pastPattern":"Same day to 3 years history usually shows up in Same week to 12 months: Delivered feed and fertilizer become more expensive or less reliable Local basis can diverge from headline futures or export values Local feed substitution, earlier sale timing, or destination hedging becomes valuable","forwardScenario":"War and shipping disruption: Conflict, sanctions, canal disruption, or route risk changes grain, fertilizer, fuel, freight, and protein trade costs.","producerAction":"Check delivered feed, fertilizer, fuel, freight, and route exposure before holding cattle longer or locking crop-input purchases.","evidence":[{"id":"fao-newsroom-rss-strait-of-hormuz-time-running-out-to-avert-global-food-security-crisis-fao-warns-2026-05-26","kind":"event","title":"Strait of Hormuz: Time running out to avert global food security crisis, FAO warns","summary":"Public item selected because war, sanctions, ports, canals, or shipping routes can change delivered feed, fertilizer, fuel, freight, and buyer access: Strait of Hormuz: Time running out to avert global food security crisis, FAO warns","sourceId":"fao-newsroom","sourceName":"FAO Newsroom","sourceUrl":"https://www.fao.org/newsroom/detail/strait-of-hormuz--time-running-out-to-avert-global-food-security-crisis--fao-warns/en","date":"2026-05-26T12:00:00.000Z","confidence":82}],"sourceGraphEdges":[{"id":"gdelt-news-to-market-event-risk","signal":"Global public news mentions of livestock, feed, dairy, crops, disease, fuel, trade, and policy shocks","driver":"Early event awareness before official reports update","affects":"Buyer access, 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volume.","confidence":78}],"scenarios":[{"id":"geopolitical-shipping-shock","name":"War and shipping disruption","sector":"feed","defaultIntensity":37,"producerDecision":"Before holding cattle for more gain, check whether war or shipping risk has changed delivered feed, fertilizer, freight, or buyer access."},{"id":"port-freight-shock","name":"Port and freight shock","sector":"feed","defaultIntensity":36,"producerDecision":"Before moving cattle, hay, grain, milk, or inputs, test whether freight has already eaten the price signal."},{"id":"feed-cost-spike","name":"Feed cost spike","sector":"feed","defaultIntensity":35,"producerDecision":"Recalculate whether the next gain period is still worth feeding."}],"localMarkets":[{"id":"mexico-country-board","name":"Mexico cattle board","country":"Mexico","risk":61,"opportunity":84,"watchSignal":"Local bid strength, slaughter pace, cull flow, and replacement appetite."},{"id":"united-states-country-board","name":"United States cattle 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or shipping-route item. Read it as a delivered feed, fertilizer, fuel, freight, and buyer-access signal."},{"id":"path-north-america-event-fao-newsroom-rss-strait-of-hormuz-time-running-out-to-avert-global-food-security-cri-effect","kind":"effect","label":"How it affects","title":"Early event awareness before official reports update","detail":"Early event awareness before official reports update: Buyer access, disease movement risk, export demand, feed input cost, weather pressure, and local sale timing"},{"id":"path-north-america-event-fao-newsroom-rss-strait-of-hormuz-time-running-out-to-avert-global-food-security-cri-history","kind":"history","label":"Past pattern","title":"Geopolitical shocks become feed, freight, and basis risk","detail":"Same day to 3 years history usually shows up in Same week to 12 months: Delivered feed and fertilizer become more expensive or less reliable Local basis can diverge from headline futures or export values Local feed substitution, earlier sale timing, or destination hedging becomes valuable"},{"id":"path-north-america-event-fao-newsroom-rss-strait-of-hormuz-time-running-out-to-avert-global-food-security-cri-scenario","kind":"scenario","label":"Forward scenario","title":"War and shipping disruption","detail":"War and shipping disruption: Conflict, sanctions, canal disruption, or route risk changes grain, fertilizer, fuel, freight, and protein trade costs."},{"id":"path-north-america-event-fao-newsroom-rss-strait-of-hormuz-time-running-out-to-avert-global-food-security-cri-action","kind":"producer-action","label":"Producer action","title":"Producer action","detail":"Check delivered feed, fertilizer, fuel, freight, and route exposure before holding cattle longer or locking crop-input purchases."}],"citationText":"North America: Strait of Hormuz: Time running out to avert global food security crisis, FAO warns connects FAO Newsroom to the current signal, historical pattern, forward scenario, and producer action."},{"id":"path-north-america-event-fao-newsroom-rss-strait-of-hormuz-conflict-threatens-global-food-prices-as-fao-warns","regionId":"north-america","regionName":"North America","sectors":["feed","beef","dairy"],"sourceId":"fao-newsroom","sourceName":"FAO Newsroom","sourceCategory":"Regional","sourceUrl":"https://www.fao.org/newsroom/detail/strait-of-hormuz-conflict-threatens-global-food-prices-as-fao-warns-time-is-running-out/en","severity":"high","confidence":82,"score":140,"updatedAt":"2026-05-20T12:00:00.000Z","title":"North America: Strait of Hormuz conflict threatens global food prices as FAO warns time is running out","currentSignal":"FAO Newsroom published a war, sanctions, or shipping-route item. Read it as a delivered feed, fertilizer, fuel, freight, and buyer-access signal.","howItAffects":"Early event awareness before official reports update: Buyer access, disease movement risk, export demand, feed input cost, weather pressure, and local sale timing","pastPattern":"Same day to 3 years history usually shows up in Same week to 12 months: Delivered feed and fertilizer become more expensive or less reliable Local basis can diverge from headline futures or export values Local feed substitution, earlier sale timing, or destination hedging becomes valuable","forwardScenario":"War and shipping disruption: Conflict, sanctions, canal disruption, or route risk changes grain, fertilizer, fuel, freight, and protein trade costs.","producerAction":"Check delivered feed, fertilizer, fuel, freight, and route exposure before holding cattle longer or locking crop-input purchases.","evidence":[{"id":"fao-newsroom-rss-strait-of-hormuz-conflict-threatens-global-food-prices-as-fao-warns-time-is-running--2026-05-20","kind":"event","title":"Strait of Hormuz conflict threatens global food prices as FAO warns time is running out","summary":"Public item selected because war, sanctions, ports, canals, or shipping routes can change delivered feed, fertilizer, fuel, freight, and buyer access: Strait of Hormuz conflict threatens global food prices as FAO warns time is running out","sourceId":"fao-newsroom","sourceName":"FAO Newsroom","sourceUrl":"https://www.fao.org/newsroom/detail/strait-of-hormuz-conflict-threatens-global-food-prices-as-fao-warns-time-is-running-out/en","date":"2026-05-20T12:00:00.000Z","confidence":82}],"sourceGraphEdges":[{"id":"gdelt-news-to-market-event-risk","signal":"Global public news mentions of livestock, feed, dairy, crops, disease, fuel, trade, and policy shocks","driver":"Early event awareness before official reports 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50 lb or 25 kg before buying feed or delaying sales.","lag":"1-6 weeks","confidence":80}],"historicalDrivers":[{"id":"geopolitical-shock-to-feed-freight","driver":"Geopolitical shocks become feed, freight, and basis risk","lookbackWindow":"Same day to 3 years","forwardWindow":"Same week to 12 months","lag":"Conflict, sanctions, or shipping-route stress can move fuel, fertilizer, grain, and freight before farmgate cattle or milk prices adjust.","producerDecision":"Treat global conflict and shipping risk as a delivered-cost problem before changing sale timing, feed coverage, or crop-input purchases.","confidence":79},{"id":"logistics-to-local-basis","driver":"Logistics shocks become local basis gaps","lookbackWindow":"7 days to 3 years","forwardWindow":"Same week to 9 months","lag":"Freight and port disruption can widen local basis before national price series register the stress.","producerDecision":"Price the delivered destination, not the benchmark, before moving cattle, feed, milk, or crop volume.","confidence":78}],"scenarios":[{"id":"geopolitical-shipping-shock","name":"War and shipping disruption","sector":"feed","defaultIntensity":37,"producerDecision":"Before holding cattle for more gain, check whether war or shipping risk has changed delivered feed, fertilizer, freight, or buyer access."},{"id":"port-freight-shock","name":"Port and freight shock","sector":"feed","defaultIntensity":36,"producerDecision":"Before moving cattle, hay, grain, milk, or inputs, test whether freight has already eaten the price signal."},{"id":"feed-cost-spike","name":"Feed cost spike","sector":"feed","defaultIntensity":35,"producerDecision":"Recalculate whether the next gain period is still worth feeding."}],"localMarkets":[{"id":"mexico-country-board","name":"Mexico cattle board","country":"Mexico","risk":61,"opportunity":84,"watchSignal":"Local bid strength, slaughter pace, cull flow, and replacement appetite."},{"id":"united-states-country-board","name":"United States cattle board","country":"United States","risk":64,"opportunity":78,"watchSignal":"Local bid strength, slaughter pace, cull flow, and replacement appetite."},{"id":"canada-country-board","name":"Canada cattle board","country":"Canada","risk":61,"opportunity":78,"watchSignal":"Local bid strength, slaughter pace, cull flow, and replacement appetite."}],"chain":[{"id":"path-north-america-event-fao-newsroom-rss-strait-of-hormuz-conflict-threatens-global-food-prices-as-fao-warns-source","kind":"source","label":"Source","title":"FAO Newsroom","detail":"FAO public news and reports that can affect livestock, feed, food security, trade, disease, and rural production context"},{"id":"path-north-america-event-fao-newsroom-rss-strait-of-hormuz-conflict-threatens-global-food-prices-as-fao-warns-signal","kind":"current-signal","label":"Current signal","title":"North America: Strait of Hormuz conflict threatens global food prices as FAO warns time is running out","detail":"FAO Newsroom published a war, sanctions, or shipping-route item. Read it as a delivered feed, fertilizer, fuel, freight, and buyer-access signal."},{"id":"path-north-america-event-fao-newsroom-rss-strait-of-hormuz-conflict-threatens-global-food-prices-as-fao-warns-effect","kind":"effect","label":"How it affects","title":"Early event awareness before official reports update","detail":"Early event awareness before official reports update: Buyer access, disease movement risk, export demand, feed input cost, weather pressure, and local sale timing"},{"id":"path-north-america-event-fao-newsroom-rss-strait-of-hormuz-conflict-threatens-global-food-prices-as-fao-warns-history","kind":"history","label":"Past pattern","title":"Geopolitical shocks become feed, freight, and basis risk","detail":"Same day to 3 years history usually shows up in Same week to 12 months: Delivered feed and fertilizer become more expensive or less reliable Local basis can diverge from headline futures or export values Local feed substitution, earlier sale timing, or destination hedging becomes valuable"},{"id":"path-north-america-event-fao-newsroom-rss-strait-of-hormuz-conflict-threatens-global-food-prices-as-fao-warns-scenario","kind":"scenario","label":"Forward scenario","title":"War and shipping disruption","detail":"War and shipping disruption: Conflict, sanctions, canal disruption, or route risk changes grain, fertilizer, fuel, freight, and protein trade costs."},{"id":"path-north-america-event-fao-newsroom-rss-strait-of-hormuz-conflict-threatens-global-food-prices-as-fao-warns-action","kind":"producer-action","label":"Producer action","title":"Producer action","detail":"Check delivered feed, fertilizer, fuel, freight, and route exposure before holding cattle longer or locking crop-input purchases."}],"citationText":"North America: Strait of Hormuz conflict threatens global food prices as FAO warns time is running out connects FAO Newsroom to the current signal, historical pattern, forward scenario, and producer action."},{"id":"path-north-america-event-fao-newsroom-rss-strait-of-hormuz-crisis-fertilizer-scarcity-will-affect-next-harves","regionId":"north-america","regionName":"North America","sectors":["feed","crops","beef","dairy"],"sourceId":"fao-newsroom","sourceName":"FAO Newsroom","sourceCategory":"Regional","sourceUrl":"https://www.fao.org/newsroom/detail/strait-of-hormuz-crisis--fertilizer-scarcity-will-affect-next-harvests-and-food-supplies--fao-warns/en","severity":"high","confidence":82,"score":140,"updatedAt":"2026-05-07T12:00:00.000Z","title":"North America: Strait of Hormuz crisis: Fertilizer scarcity will affect next harvests and food supplies, FAO warns","currentSignal":"FAO Newsroom published a war, sanctions, or shipping-route item. Read it as a delivered feed, fertilizer, fuel, freight, and buyer-access signal.","howItAffects":"Early event awareness before official reports update: Buyer access, disease movement risk, export demand, feed input cost, weather pressure, and local sale timing","pastPattern":"Same day to 3 years history usually shows up in Same week to 12 months: Delivered feed and fertilizer become more expensive or less reliable Local basis can diverge from headline futures or export values Local feed substitution, earlier sale timing, or destination hedging becomes valuable","forwardScenario":"War and shipping disruption: Conflict, sanctions, canal disruption, or route risk changes grain, fertilizer, fuel, freight, and protein trade costs.","producerAction":"Check delivered feed, fertilizer, fuel, freight, and route exposure before holding cattle longer or locking crop-input purchases.","evidence":[{"id":"fao-newsroom-rss-strait-of-hormuz-crisis-fertilizer-scarcity-will-affect-next-harvests-and-food-suppl-2026-05-07","kind":"event","title":"Strait of Hormuz crisis: Fertilizer scarcity will affect next harvests and food supplies, FAO warns","summary":"Public item selected because war, sanctions, ports, canals, or shipping routes can change delivered feed, fertilizer, fuel, freight, and buyer access: Strait of Hormuz crisis: Fertilizer scarcity will affect next harvests and food supplies, FAO warns","sourceId":"fao-newsroom","sourceName":"FAO Newsroom","sourceUrl":"https://www.fao.org/newsroom/detail/strait-of-hormuz-crisis--fertilizer-scarcity-will-affect-next-harvests-and-food-supplies--fao-warns/en","date":"2026-05-07T12:00:00.000Z","confidence":82}],"sourceGraphEdges":[{"id":"gdelt-news-to-market-event-risk","signal":"Global public news mentions of livestock, feed, dairy, crops, disease, fuel, trade, and policy shocks","driver":"Early event awareness before official reports update","affects":"Buyer access, disease movement risk, export demand, feed input cost, weather pressure, and local sale timing","producerDecision":"Use public event signals as watch items, then confirm with official data before changing cattle, milk, feed, or crop commitments.","lag":"Same day to 8 weeks","confidence":72},{"id":"eia-diesel-to-freight-feed-cost","signal":"Weekly U.S. No. 2 diesel retail price","driver":"Freight and feed-delivery cost pressure","affects":"Hay hauling, feed delivery, yardage, crop inputs, feeder bids, and sale timing","producerDecision":"Reprice delivered feed, hay, and cattle hauling before deciding whether extra weight still pays.","lag":"Same week to 8 weeks","confidence":80},{"id":"feed-energy-to-breakeven","signal":"Beef, energy, fertilizer, and feed commodity prices","driver":"Feed, fertilizer, freight, and pasture input cost","affects":"Backgrounding breakeven, finishing margin, hay cost, and stocking decision","producerDecision":"Reprice the next 50 lb or 25 kg before buying feed or delaying sales.","lag":"1-6 weeks","confidence":80}],"historicalDrivers":[{"id":"geopolitical-shock-to-feed-freight","driver":"Geopolitical shocks become feed, freight, and basis risk","lookbackWindow":"Same day to 3 years","forwardWindow":"Same week to 12 months","lag":"Conflict, sanctions, or shipping-route stress can move fuel, fertilizer, grain, and freight before farmgate cattle or milk prices adjust.","producerDecision":"Treat global conflict and shipping risk as a delivered-cost problem before changing sale timing, feed coverage, or crop-input purchases.","confidence":79},{"id":"logistics-to-local-basis","driver":"Logistics shocks become local basis gaps","lookbackWindow":"7 days to 3 years","forwardWindow":"Same week to 9 months","lag":"Freight and port disruption can widen local basis before national price series register the stress.","producerDecision":"Price the delivered destination, not the benchmark, before moving cattle, feed, milk, or crop volume.","confidence":78}],"scenarios":[{"id":"geopolitical-shipping-shock","name":"War and shipping disruption","sector":"feed","defaultIntensity":37,"producerDecision":"Before holding cattle for more gain, check whether war or shipping risk has changed delivered feed, fertilizer, freight, or buyer access."},{"id":"port-freight-shock","name":"Port and freight shock","sector":"feed","defaultIntensity":36,"producerDecision":"Before moving cattle, hay, grain, milk, or inputs, test whether freight has already eaten the price signal."},{"id":"feed-cost-spike","name":"Feed cost spike","sector":"feed","defaultIntensity":35,"producerDecision":"Recalculate whether the next gain period is still worth feeding."}],"localMarkets":[{"id":"mexico-country-board","name":"Mexico cattle board","country":"Mexico","risk":61,"opportunity":84,"watchSignal":"Local bid strength, slaughter pace, cull flow, and replacement appetite."},{"id":"united-states-country-board","name":"United States cattle board","country":"United States","risk":64,"opportunity":78,"watchSignal":"Local bid strength, slaughter pace, cull flow, and replacement appetite."},{"id":"canada-country-board","name":"Canada cattle board","country":"Canada","risk":61,"opportunity":78,"watchSignal":"Local bid strength, slaughter pace, cull flow, and replacement appetite."}],"chain":[{"id":"path-north-america-event-fao-newsroom-rss-strait-of-hormuz-crisis-fertilizer-scarcity-will-affect-next-harves-source","kind":"source","label":"Source","title":"FAO Newsroom","detail":"FAO public news and reports that can affect livestock, feed, food security, trade, disease, and rural production context"},{"id":"path-north-america-event-fao-newsroom-rss-strait-of-hormuz-crisis-fertilizer-scarcity-will-affect-next-harves-signal","kind":"current-signal","label":"Current signal","title":"North America: Strait of Hormuz crisis: Fertilizer scarcity will affect next harvests and food supplies, FAO warns","detail":"FAO Newsroom published a war, sanctions, or shipping-route item. Read it as a delivered feed, fertilizer, fuel, freight, and buyer-access signal."},{"id":"path-north-america-event-fao-newsroom-rss-strait-of-hormuz-crisis-fertilizer-scarcity-will-affect-next-harves-effect","kind":"effect","label":"How it affects","title":"Early event awareness before official reports update","detail":"Early event awareness before official reports update: Buyer access, disease movement risk, export demand, feed input cost, weather pressure, and local sale timing"},{"id":"path-north-america-event-fao-newsroom-rss-strait-of-hormuz-crisis-fertilizer-scarcity-will-affect-next-harves-history","kind":"history","label":"Past pattern","title":"Geopolitical shocks become feed, freight, and basis risk","detail":"Same day to 3 years history usually shows up in Same week to 12 months: Delivered feed and fertilizer become more expensive or less reliable Local basis can diverge from headline futures or export values Local feed substitution, earlier sale timing, or destination hedging becomes valuable"},{"id":"path-north-america-event-fao-newsroom-rss-strait-of-hormuz-crisis-fertilizer-scarcity-will-affect-next-harves-scenario","kind":"scenario","label":"Forward scenario","title":"War and shipping disruption","detail":"War and shipping disruption: Conflict, sanctions, canal disruption, or route risk changes grain, fertilizer, fuel, freight, and protein trade costs."},{"id":"path-north-america-event-fao-newsroom-rss-strait-of-hormuz-crisis-fertilizer-scarcity-will-affect-next-harves-action","kind":"producer-action","label":"Producer action","title":"Producer action","detail":"Check delivered feed, fertilizer, fuel, freight, and route exposure before holding cattle longer or locking crop-input purchases."}],"citationText":"North America: Strait of Hormuz crisis: Fertilizer scarcity will affect next harvests and food supplies, FAO warns connects FAO Newsroom to the current signal, historical pattern, forward scenario, and producer action."},{"id":"path-north-america-impact-open-meteo-water-demand-southern-plains-water-heat-impact","regionId":"north-america","regionName":"North America","sectors":["beef","dairy","feed","crops"],"sourceId":"open-meteo-forecast","sourceName":"Open-Meteo global weather forecast","sourceCategory":"Weather","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","severity":"high","confidence":88,"score":139,"updatedAt":"2026-06-06T11:37:42.824Z","title":"North America: Southern Plains 7-day water demand forecast: heat and water demand watch","currentSignal":"Water demand, shade and handling windows, dairy milk yield, pasture regrowth, hay substitution, irrigation demand, and feed-crop stress.","howItAffects":"Forward pasture, heat, water, and forage pressure: Sale timing, feed coverage, water checks, milk yield, weight gain, and crop-feed risk","pastPattern":"30-120 days history usually shows up in 2-16 weeks: More calves and cull cows move earlier Replacement animals face discount risk in dry regions Feed cost can erase the value of extra gain","forwardScenario":"Drought tightens forage: Pasture weakens, hay gets tighter, and more cows or calves can move earlier than planned.","producerAction":"Move water checks, shade, transport timing, and dairy heat-abatement ahead of the forecast peak before assuming cattle will keep eating and gaining normally.","evidence":[{"id":"open-meteo-water-demand-southern-plains-water-heat-impact","kind":"impact","title":"Southern Plains 7-day water demand forecast: heat and water demand watch","summary":"60.8 mm/week forecast for reference evapotranspiration. That is a forward signal for pasture drying, trough checks, shade, dairy comfort, and irrigated feed-crop pressure.","sourceId":"open-meteo-forecast","sourceName":"Open-Meteo global weather forecast","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","date":"2026-06-06T11:33:23.605Z","confidence":88},{"id":"open-meteo-water-demand-southern-plains","kind":"observation","title":"Southern Plains 7-day water demand forecast","summary":"Southern Plains: 60.8 mm/week reference evapotranspiration and 41.4 C apparent-temperature high are forecast. Pair this with rainfall to judge water checks, shade, dairy heat stress, pasture recovery, and irrigation/feed-crop pressure.","sourceId":"open-meteo-forecast","sourceName":"Open-Meteo global weather forecast","sourceUrl":"https://api.open-meteo.com/v1/forecast?latitude=35.5&longitude=-99.5&daily=temperature_2m_max%2Ctemperature_2m_min%2Capparent_temperature_max%2Cprecipitation_sum%2Cet0_fao_evapotranspiration&forecast_days=7&timezone=auto","date":"2026-06-06 to 2026-06-12","confidence":81}],"sourceGraphEdges":[{"id":"open-meteo-forecast-to-forward-forage","signal":"7-day precipitation and temperature forecast by geo node","driver":"Forward pasture, heat, water, and forage pressure","affects":"Sale timing, feed coverage, water checks, milk yield, weight gain, and crop-feed risk","producerDecision":"Use the next-week rain and heat forecast before moving cattle, buying hay, changing supplement, or holding weight.","lag":"0-14 days","confidence":78},{"id":"nasa-weather-to-heat","signal":"Temperature, humidity, wind, rainfall by coordinate","driver":"Heat load, water stress, and pasture regrowth","affects":"Gain, intake, fertility, death loss risk, and shade or water planning","producerDecision":"Adjust transport, feeding time, stocking rate, and water checks before stress peaks.","lag":"0-10 days","confidence":83}],"historicalDrivers":[{"id":"pasture-stress-to-sale-runs","driver":"Pasture stress becomes sale pressure","lookbackWindow":"30-120 days","forwardWindow":"2-16 weeks","lag":"Pasture stress usually hits feed buying first, sale runs second, and replacement prices last.","producerDecision":"Move from calendar-based selling to forage-days and feed-margin selling.","confidence":86},{"id":"heat-load-to-milk-gain","driver":"Heat load becomes milk and weight-gain drag","lookbackWindow":"7-90 days","forwardWindow":"Same day to 12 weeks","lag":"Heat and humidity affect intake first, then milk, weight gain, conception, and sale timing.","producerDecision":"Move heat mitigation and ration timing ahead of sale-weight or milk-output assumptions.","confidence":82},{"id":"crop-balance-to-feed-margin","driver":"Crop balance becomes feed margin","lookbackWindow":"90 days to 5 years","forwardWindow":"1-18 months","lag":"Acreage and crop condition lead production; production leads feed price; feed price leads cattle and milk margins.","producerDecision":"Use the crop balance to decide feed coverage, hay buying, grain pricing, and stocking rate.","confidence":84}],"scenarios":[{"id":"drought-shock","name":"Drought tightens forage","sector":"feed","defaultIntensity":42,"producerDecision":"Check forage inventory, water, and the value of selling lighter cattle before everyone else is forced to."},{"id":"milk-margin-squeeze","name":"Milk margin squeeze","sector":"dairy","defaultIntensity":33,"producerDecision":"Reprice feed, cull timing, and replacement animals before ration spend outruns milk value."},{"id":"crop-yield-shock","name":"Crop yield shock","sector":"crops","defaultIntensity":38,"producerDecision":"Decide whether to protect feed needs, price grain, adjust planting, or buy hay before local shortages are obvious."},{"id":"feed-cost-spike","name":"Feed cost spike","sector":"feed","defaultIntensity":35,"producerDecision":"Recalculate whether the next gain period is still worth feeding."}],"localMarkets":[{"id":"united-states-pasture-basin","name":"United States pasture and water basin","country":"United States","risk":69,"opportunity":83,"watchSignal":"Pasture recovery, water stress, heat load, hay availability, and forced-sale risk."},{"id":"canada-pasture-basin","name":"Canada pasture and water basin","country":"Canada","risk":66,"opportunity":83,"watchSignal":"Pasture recovery, water stress, heat load, hay availability, and forced-sale risk."},{"id":"mexico-pasture-basin","name":"Mexico pasture and water basin","country":"Mexico","risk":66,"opportunity":80,"watchSignal":"Pasture recovery, water stress, heat load, hay availability, and forced-sale risk."}],"chain":[{"id":"path-north-america-impact-open-meteo-water-demand-southern-plains-water-heat-impact-source","kind":"source","label":"Source","title":"Open-Meteo global weather forecast","detail":"Global no-key weather forecast API for daily temperature, precipitation, wind, and agricultural weather by coordinate"},{"id":"path-north-america-impact-open-meteo-water-demand-southern-plains-water-heat-impact-signal","kind":"current-signal","label":"Current signal","title":"North America: Southern Plains 7-day water demand forecast: heat and water demand watch","detail":"Water demand, shade and handling windows, dairy milk yield, pasture regrowth, hay substitution, irrigation demand, and feed-crop stress."},{"id":"path-north-america-impact-open-meteo-water-demand-southern-plains-water-heat-impact-effect","kind":"effect","label":"How it affects","title":"Forward pasture, heat, water, and forage pressure","detail":"Forward pasture, heat, water, and forage pressure: Sale timing, feed coverage, water checks, milk yield, weight gain, and crop-feed risk"},{"id":"path-north-america-impact-open-meteo-water-demand-southern-plains-water-heat-impact-history","kind":"history","label":"Past pattern","title":"Pasture stress becomes sale pressure","detail":"30-120 days history usually shows up in 2-16 weeks: More calves and cull cows move earlier Replacement animals face discount risk in dry regions Feed cost can erase the value of extra gain"},{"id":"path-north-america-impact-open-meteo-water-demand-southern-plains-water-heat-impact-scenario","kind":"scenario","label":"Forward scenario","title":"Drought tightens forage","detail":"Drought tightens forage: Pasture weakens, hay gets tighter, and more cows or calves can move earlier than planned."},{"id":"path-north-america-impact-open-meteo-water-demand-southern-plains-water-heat-impact-action","kind":"producer-action","label":"Producer action","title":"Producer action","detail":"Move water checks, shade, transport timing, and dairy heat-abatement ahead of the forecast peak before assuming cattle will keep eating and gaining normally."}],"citationText":"North America: Southern Plains 7-day water demand forecast: heat and water demand watch connects Open-Meteo global weather forecast to the current signal, historical pattern, forward scenario, and producer action."}],"citationText":"North America market impact graph contains 4 impact paths, 2 sources, 5 historical patterns, and 6 scenarios.","shareableMarkdown":"# North America market impact graph\n\nRanked paths showing how market signals affect cattle prices, feed, weather, logistics, health risk, and producer decisions.\n\n- North America: Strait of Hormuz: Time running out to avert global food security crisis, FAO warns: Source: FAO Newsroom. Current signal: FAO Newsroom published a war, sanctions, or shipping-route item. Read it as a delivered feed, fertilizer, fuel, freight, and buyer-access signal. How it affects: Early event awareness before official reports update: Buyer access, disease movement risk, export demand, feed input cost, weather pressure, and local sale timing Past pattern: Same day to 3 years history usually shows up in Same week to 12 months: Delivered feed and fertilizer become more expensive or less reliable Local basis can diverge from headline futures or export values Local feed substitution, earlier sale timing, or destination hedging becomes valuable Forward scenario: War and shipping disruption: Conflict, sanctions, canal disruption, or route risk changes grain, fertilizer, fuel, freight, and protein trade costs. Action: Check delivered feed, fertilizer, fuel, freight, and route exposure before holding cattle longer or locking crop-input purchases.\n- North America: Strait of Hormuz conflict threatens global food prices as FAO warns time is running out: Source: FAO Newsroom. Current signal: FAO Newsroom published a war, sanctions, or shipping-route item. Read it as a delivered feed, fertilizer, fuel, freight, and buyer-access signal. How it affects: Early event awareness before official reports update: Buyer access, disease movement risk, export demand, feed input cost, weather pressure, and local sale timing Past pattern: Same day to 3 years history usually shows up in Same week to 12 months: Delivered feed and fertilizer become more expensive or less reliable Local basis can diverge from headline futures or export values Local feed substitution, earlier sale timing, or destination hedging becomes valuable Forward scenario: War and shipping disruption: Conflict, sanctions, canal disruption, or route risk changes grain, fertilizer, fuel, freight, and protein trade costs. Action: Check delivered feed, fertilizer, fuel, freight, and route exposure before holding cattle longer or locking crop-input purchases.\n- North America: Strait of Hormuz crisis: Fertilizer scarcity will affect next harvests and food supplies, FAO warns: Source: FAO Newsroom. Current signal: FAO Newsroom published a war, sanctions, or shipping-route item. Read it as a delivered feed, fertilizer, fuel, freight, and buyer-access signal. How it affects: Early event awareness before official reports update: Buyer access, disease movement risk, export demand, feed input cost, weather pressure, and local sale timing Past pattern: Same day to 3 years history usually shows up in Same week to 12 months: Delivered feed and fertilizer become more expensive or less reliable Local basis can diverge from headline futures or export values Local feed substitution, earlier sale timing, or destination hedging becomes valuable Forward scenario: War and shipping disruption: Conflict, sanctions, canal disruption, or route risk changes grain, fertilizer, fuel, freight, and protein trade costs. Action: Check delivered feed, fertilizer, fuel, freight, and route exposure before holding cattle longer or locking crop-input purchases.\n- North America: Southern Plains 7-day water demand forecast: heat and water demand watch: Source: Open-Meteo global weather forecast. Current signal: Water demand, shade and handling windows, dairy milk yield, pasture regrowth, hay substitution, irrigation demand, and feed-crop stress. How it affects: Forward pasture, heat, water, and forage pressure: Sale timing, feed coverage, water checks, milk yield, weight gain, and crop-feed risk Past pattern: 30-120 days history usually shows up in 2-16 weeks: More calves and cull cows move earlier Replacement animals face discount risk in dry regions Feed cost can erase the value of extra gain Forward scenario: Drought tightens forage: Pasture weakens, hay gets tighter, and more cows or calves can move earlier than planned. Action: Move water checks, shade, transport timing, and dairy heat-abatement ahead of the forecast peak before assuming cattle will keep eating and gaining normally.\n\nData: https://cattleweightestimation.com/market-pulse/impact-graph.json?region=north-america&sector=all&lang=en"}}