{"name":"Cattle Market Pulse impact matrix","description":"Region-filtered source-to-action impact matrix. Rows group public cattle and farm market signals by pressure category and connect each signal to source, causal effect, historical lead-lag rule, forward scenario, evidence, and producer action.","generatedAt":"2026-06-06T22:12:45.417Z","snapshotGeneratedAt":"2026-06-06T11:33:23.605Z","snapshotWindow":{"startDate":"2026-05-28","endDate":"2026-06-03"},"updateCadence":"daily","isAccessibleForFree":true,"canonicalUrl":"https://cattleweightestimation.com/market-pulse/impact-matrix.json","filters":{"region":"north-america","sector":"all","pressure":"all","lang":"en","limit":3},"summary":{"rows":3,"pressures":2,"highSeverity":3,"sourceFamilies":3,"sourceGraphEdges":8,"historicalDrivers":3,"scenarios":5,"evidenceItems":6},"queryExamples":["https://cattleweightestimation.com/market-pulse/impact-matrix.json?region=north-america&sector=beef&lang=en","https://cattleweightestimation.com/market-pulse/impact-matrix.json?region=latin-america&pressure=feed&lang=pt","https://cattleweightestimation.com/market-pulse/impact-matrix.json?region=latin-america&pressure=weather&lang=es"],"matrix":{"id":"impact-matrix-north-america-all-all-en","type":"impact-matrix","title":"North America impact matrix","subtitle":"Public signals grouped by market pressure, with source, effect, history, scenario, and action.","locale":"en","regionId":"north-america","regionName":"North America","sector":"all","pressure":"all","generatedAt":"2026-06-06T22:12:45.417Z","snapshotGeneratedAt":"2026-06-06T11:33:23.605Z","snapshotWindow":{"startDate":"2026-05-28","endDate":"2026-06-03"},"updateCadence":"daily","isAccessibleForFree":true,"canonicalDataUrl":"https://cattleweightestimation.com/market-pulse/impact-matrix.json?region=north-america&sector=all&pressure=all&lang=en","summary":{"rows":3,"pressures":2,"highSeverity":3,"sourceFamilies":3,"sourceGraphEdges":8,"historicalDrivers":3,"scenarios":5,"evidenceItems":6},"groups":[{"pressure":"weather","label":"Weather and heat","count":2,"highSeverity":2,"sourceFamilies":2,"scenarios":2,"topRow":{"id":"path-north-america-impact-usda-esr-sorghum-weekly-exports-buyer-pull-impact","type":"impact-matrix-row","regionId":"north-america","pressure":"weather","pressureLabel":"Weather and heat","sectors":["feed","crops","beef","dairy"],"severity":"high","confidence":84,"score":3172,"title":"North America: Sorghum export pull weekly exports changed weekly buyer pull","currentSignal":"Corn, sorghum, and meal export pull can change domestic feed basis, ration coverage, feeder bids, and gain economics.","howItAffects":"Export buyer pull before customs data confirms it: Beef cutout support, grain basis, local processor bids, and feed ingredient demand","pastPattern":"90 days to 5 years history usually shows up in 1-18 months: Backgrounding and finishing margins compress Dairy ration spend rises before cull flow changes Crop producers may gain price opportunity while livestock producers face cost risk","forwardScenario":"Feed cost spike: Corn, hay, soybean meal, fuel, or freight costs rise faster than cattle value.","producerAction":"Check delivered feed and basis before buying feeders, holding cattle for more weight, or leaving protein needs uncovered.","source":{"id":"usda-esr","name":"USDA Export Sales Reporting","category":"Trade","officialUrl":"https://apps.fas.usda.gov/export-sales/esrd1.html"},"sourceGraph":{"id":"export-sales-to-buyer-pull","signal":"Weekly export commitments and shipments by commodity and destination","driver":"Export buyer pull before customs data confirms it","affects":"Beef cutout support, grain basis, local processor bids, and feed ingredient demand","producerDecision":"Watch export-sales acceleration as an early signal for stronger cash bids or tighter feed.","lag":"1-5 weeks","confidence":83},"historicalDriver":{"id":"crop-balance-to-feed-margin","driver":"Crop balance becomes feed margin","lookbackWindow":"90 days to 5 years","forwardWindow":"1-18 months","lag":"Acreage and crop condition lead production; production leads feed price; feed price leads cattle and milk margins.","leadingSignals":["Acreage, crop progress, and soil moisture shift together","Balance-sheet revisions tighten ending stocks","Rail, freight, or port pressure widens local basis"],"forwardEffects":["Backgrounding and finishing margins compress","Dairy ration spend rises before cull flow changes","Crop producers may gain price opportunity while livestock producers face cost risk"],"producerDecision":"Use the crop balance to decide feed coverage, hay buying, grain pricing, and stocking rate.","confidence":84},"scenario":{"id":"feed-cost-spike","name":"Feed cost spike","sector":"feed","defaultIntensity":35,"description":"Corn, hay, soybean meal, fuel, or freight costs rise faster than cattle value.","producerDecision":"Recalculate whether the next gain period is still worth feeding."},"evidence":[{"id":"usda-esr-sorghum-weekly-exports-buyer-pull-impact","kind":"impact","title":"Sorghum export pull weekly exports changed weekly buyer pull","summary":"184 thousand mt in the latest USDA FAS export-sales XML. Weekly change is +2605%.","sourceName":"USDA Export Sales Reporting","sourceUrl":"https://apps.fas.usda.gov/export-sales/esrd1.html","date":null,"confidence":84,"evidenceKey":"impact:usda-esr-sorghum-weekly-exports-buyer-pull-impact"},{"id":"usda-esr-sorghum-weekly-exports","kind":"observation","title":"Sorghum export pull weekly exports","summary":"USDA FAS Export Sales Reporting reported sorghum export pull weekly exports at 183.9 thousand metric tons for week ending 2026-05-28, versus 6.8 thousand metric tons a week earlier (+2605% versus the prior week). Strong export pull can tighten feed basis before local ration quotes fully reset.","sourceName":"USDA FAS Export Sales Reporting","sourceUrl":"https://apps.fas.usda.gov/esrqs/StaticReports/CWRCommoditySummary.xml","date":"2026-05-28","confidence":84,"evidenceKey":"observation:usda-esr-sorghum-weekly-exports"}],"path":{"id":"path-north-america-impact-usda-esr-sorghum-weekly-exports-buyer-pull-impact","signalType":"impact","updatedAt":"2026-06-06T11:37:42.824Z","evidenceIds":["usda-esr-sorghum-weekly-exports-buyer-pull-impact","usda-esr-sorghum-weekly-exports"],"sourceGraphEdgeIds":["export-sales-to-buyer-pull","fas-trade-to-basis","wasde-feed-balance-to-cattle-margin","feed-energy-to-breakeven"],"historicalDriverIds":["crop-balance-to-feed-margin"],"scenarioIds":["feed-cost-spike","crop-yield-shock","export-disruption"]},"impactChain":[{"id":"path-north-america-impact-usda-esr-sorghum-weekly-exports-buyer-pull-impact:source","label":"Source","title":"USDA Export Sales 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spend rises before cull flow changes Crop producers may gain price opportunity while livestock producers face cost risk"},{"id":"path-north-america-impact-usda-esr-sorghum-weekly-exports-buyer-pull-impact:scenario","label":"Scenario","title":"Feed cost spike","detail":"Feed cost spike: Corn, hay, soybean meal, fuel, or freight costs rise faster than cattle value."},{"id":"path-north-america-impact-usda-esr-sorghum-weekly-exports-buyer-pull-impact:action","label":"Action","title":"Producer decision","detail":"Check delivered feed and basis before buying feeders, holding cattle for more weight, or leaving protein needs uncovered."}],"canonicalDataUrl":"https://cattleweightestimation.com/market-pulse/impact-matrix.json?region=north-america&pressure=weather&lang=en"}},{"pressure":"water","label":"Water stress","count":1,"highSeverity":1,"sourceFamilies":1,"scenarios":1,"topRow":{"id":"path-north-america-impact-open-meteo-water-demand-southern-plains-water-heat-impact","type":"impact-matrix-row","regionId":"north-america","pressure":"water","pressureLabel":"Water stress","sectors":["beef","dairy","feed","crops"],"severity":"high","confidence":88,"score":3179,"title":"North America: Southern Plains 7-day water demand forecast: heat and water demand watch","currentSignal":"Water demand, shade and handling windows, dairy milk yield, pasture regrowth, hay substitution, irrigation demand, and feed-crop stress.","howItAffects":"Forward pasture, heat, water, and forage pressure: Sale timing, feed coverage, water checks, milk yield, weight gain, and crop-feed risk","pastPattern":"30-120 days history usually shows up in 2-16 weeks: More calves and cull cows move earlier Replacement animals face discount risk in dry regions Feed cost can erase the value of extra gain","forwardScenario":"Drought tightens forage: Pasture weakens, hay gets tighter, and more cows or calves can move earlier than planned.","producerAction":"Move water checks, shade, transport timing, and dairy heat-abatement ahead of the forecast peak before assuming cattle will keep eating and gaining normally.","source":{"id":"open-meteo-forecast","name":"Open-Meteo global weather forecast","category":"Weather","officialUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs"},"sourceGraph":{"id":"open-meteo-forecast-to-forward-forage","signal":"7-day precipitation and temperature forecast by geo node","driver":"Forward pasture, heat, water, and forage pressure","affects":"Sale timing, feed coverage, water checks, milk yield, weight gain, and crop-feed risk","producerDecision":"Use the next-week rain and heat forecast before moving cattle, buying hay, changing supplement, or holding weight.","lag":"0-14 days","confidence":78},"historicalDriver":{"id":"pasture-stress-to-sale-runs","driver":"Pasture stress becomes sale 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to."},"evidence":[{"id":"open-meteo-water-demand-southern-plains-water-heat-impact","kind":"impact","title":"Southern Plains 7-day water demand forecast: heat and water demand watch","summary":"60.8 mm/week forecast for reference evapotranspiration. 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Pair this with rainfall to judge water checks, shade, dairy heat stress, pasture recovery, and irrigation/feed-crop pressure.","sourceName":"Open-Meteo global weather forecast","sourceUrl":"https://api.open-meteo.com/v1/forecast?latitude=35.5&longitude=-99.5&daily=temperature_2m_max%2Ctemperature_2m_min%2Capparent_temperature_max%2Cprecipitation_sum%2Cet0_fao_evapotranspiration&forecast_days=7&timezone=auto","date":"2026-06-06 to 2026-06-12","confidence":81,"evidenceKey":"observation:open-meteo-water-demand-southern-plains"}],"path":{"id":"path-north-america-impact-open-meteo-water-demand-southern-plains-water-heat-impact","signalType":"impact","updatedAt":"2026-06-06T11:37:42.824Z","evidenceIds":["open-meteo-water-demand-southern-plains-water-heat-impact","open-meteo-water-demand-southern-plains"],"sourceGraphEdgeIds":["open-meteo-forecast-to-forward-forage","nasa-weather-to-heat"],"historicalDriverIds":["pasture-stress-to-sale-runs","heat-load-to-milk-gain","crop-balance-to-feed-margin"],"scenarioIds":["drought-shock","milk-margin-squeeze","crop-yield-shock","feed-cost-spike"]},"impactChain":[{"id":"path-north-america-impact-open-meteo-water-demand-southern-plains-water-heat-impact:source","label":"Source","title":"Open-Meteo global weather forecast","detail":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs"},{"id":"path-north-america-impact-open-meteo-water-demand-southern-plains-water-heat-impact:signal","label":"Current signal","title":"North America: Southern Plains 7-day water demand forecast: heat and water demand watch","detail":"Water demand, shade and handling windows, dairy milk yield, pasture regrowth, hay substitution, irrigation demand, and feed-crop stress."},{"id":"path-north-america-impact-open-meteo-water-demand-southern-plains-water-heat-impact:driver","label":"Impact","title":"Forward pasture, heat, water, and forage pressure","detail":"Forward pasture, heat, water, and forage pressure: Sale timing, feed coverage, water checks, milk yield, weight gain, and crop-feed risk"},{"id":"path-north-america-impact-open-meteo-water-demand-southern-plains-water-heat-impact:history","label":"History","title":"Pasture stress becomes sale pressure","detail":"30-120 days history usually shows up in 2-16 weeks: More calves and cull cows move earlier Replacement animals face discount risk in dry regions Feed cost can erase the value of extra gain"},{"id":"path-north-america-impact-open-meteo-water-demand-southern-plains-water-heat-impact:scenario","label":"Scenario","title":"Drought tightens forage","detail":"Drought tightens forage: Pasture weakens, hay gets tighter, and more cows or calves can move earlier than planned."},{"id":"path-north-america-impact-open-meteo-water-demand-southern-plains-water-heat-impact:action","label":"Action","title":"Producer decision","detail":"Move water checks, shade, transport timing, and dairy heat-abatement ahead of the forecast peak before assuming cattle will keep eating and gaining normally."}],"canonicalDataUrl":"https://cattleweightestimation.com/market-pulse/impact-matrix.json?region=north-america&pressure=water&lang=en"}}],"rows":[{"id":"path-north-america-impact-open-meteo-water-demand-southern-plains-water-heat-impact","type":"impact-matrix-row","regionId":"north-america","pressure":"water","pressureLabel":"Water stress","sectors":["beef","dairy","feed","crops"],"severity":"high","confidence":88,"score":3179,"title":"North America: Southern Plains 7-day water demand forecast: heat and water demand watch","currentSignal":"Water demand, shade and handling windows, dairy milk yield, pasture regrowth, hay substitution, irrigation demand, and feed-crop stress.","howItAffects":"Forward pasture, heat, water, and forage pressure: Sale timing, feed coverage, water checks, milk yield, weight gain, and crop-feed risk","pastPattern":"30-120 days history usually shows up in 2-16 weeks: More calves and cull cows move earlier Replacement animals face discount risk in dry regions Feed cost can erase the value of extra gain","forwardScenario":"Drought tightens forage: Pasture weakens, hay gets tighter, and more cows or calves can move earlier than planned.","producerAction":"Move water checks, shade, transport timing, and dairy heat-abatement ahead of the forecast peak before assuming cattle will keep eating and gaining normally.","source":{"id":"open-meteo-forecast","name":"Open-Meteo global weather forecast","category":"Weather","officialUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs"},"sourceGraph":{"id":"open-meteo-forecast-to-forward-forage","signal":"7-day precipitation and temperature forecast by geo node","driver":"Forward pasture, heat, water, and forage pressure","affects":"Sale timing, feed coverage, water checks, milk yield, weight gain, and crop-feed risk","producerDecision":"Use the next-week rain and heat forecast before moving cattle, buying hay, changing supplement, or holding weight.","lag":"0-14 days","confidence":78},"historicalDriver":{"id":"pasture-stress-to-sale-runs","driver":"Pasture stress becomes sale pressure","lookbackWindow":"30-120 days","forwardWindow":"2-16 weeks","lag":"Pasture stress usually hits feed buying first, sale runs second, and replacement prices last.","leadingSignals":["Soil moisture drops below seasonal median","Pasture condition ratings 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That is a forward signal for pasture drying, trough checks, shade, dairy comfort, and irrigated feed-crop pressure.","sourceName":"Open-Meteo global weather forecast","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","date":null,"confidence":88,"evidenceKey":"impact:open-meteo-water-demand-southern-plains-water-heat-impact"},{"id":"open-meteo-water-demand-southern-plains","kind":"observation","title":"Southern Plains 7-day water demand forecast","summary":"Southern Plains: 60.8 mm/week reference evapotranspiration and 41.4 C apparent-temperature high are forecast. Pair this with rainfall to judge water checks, shade, dairy heat stress, pasture recovery, and irrigation/feed-crop pressure.","sourceName":"Open-Meteo global weather forecast","sourceUrl":"https://api.open-meteo.com/v1/forecast?latitude=35.5&longitude=-99.5&daily=temperature_2m_max%2Ctemperature_2m_min%2Capparent_temperature_max%2Cprecipitation_sum%2Cet0_fao_evapotranspiration&forecast_days=7&timezone=auto","date":"2026-06-06 to 2026-06-12","confidence":81,"evidenceKey":"observation:open-meteo-water-demand-southern-plains"}],"path":{"id":"path-north-america-impact-open-meteo-water-demand-southern-plains-water-heat-impact","signalType":"impact","updatedAt":"2026-06-06T11:37:42.824Z","evidenceIds":["open-meteo-water-demand-southern-plains-water-heat-impact","open-meteo-water-demand-southern-plains"],"sourceGraphEdgeIds":["open-meteo-forecast-to-forward-forage","nasa-weather-to-heat"],"historicalDriverIds":["pasture-stress-to-sale-runs","heat-load-to-milk-gain","crop-balance-to-feed-margin"],"scenarioIds":["drought-shock","milk-margin-squeeze","crop-yield-shock","feed-cost-spike"]},"impactChain":[{"id":"path-north-america-impact-open-meteo-water-demand-southern-plains-water-heat-impact:source","label":"Source","title":"Open-Meteo global weather forecast","detail":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs"},{"id":"path-north-america-impact-open-meteo-water-demand-southern-plains-water-heat-impact:signal","label":"Current signal","title":"North America: Southern Plains 7-day water demand forecast: heat and water demand watch","detail":"Water demand, shade and handling windows, dairy milk yield, pasture regrowth, hay substitution, irrigation demand, and feed-crop stress."},{"id":"path-north-america-impact-open-meteo-water-demand-southern-plains-water-heat-impact:driver","label":"Impact","title":"Forward pasture, heat, water, and forage pressure","detail":"Forward pasture, heat, water, and forage pressure: Sale timing, feed coverage, water checks, milk yield, weight gain, and crop-feed risk"},{"id":"path-north-america-impact-open-meteo-water-demand-southern-plains-water-heat-impact:history","label":"History","title":"Pasture stress becomes sale pressure","detail":"30-120 days history usually shows up in 2-16 weeks: More calves and cull cows move earlier Replacement animals face discount risk in dry regions Feed cost can erase the value of extra gain"},{"id":"path-north-america-impact-open-meteo-water-demand-southern-plains-water-heat-impact:scenario","label":"Scenario","title":"Drought tightens forage","detail":"Drought tightens forage: Pasture weakens, hay gets tighter, and more cows or calves can move earlier than planned."},{"id":"path-north-america-impact-open-meteo-water-demand-southern-plains-water-heat-impact:action","label":"Action","title":"Producer decision","detail":"Move water checks, shade, transport timing, and dairy heat-abatement ahead of the forecast peak before assuming cattle will keep eating and gaining normally."}],"canonicalDataUrl":"https://cattleweightestimation.com/market-pulse/impact-matrix.json?region=north-america&pressure=water&lang=en"},{"id":"path-north-america-impact-usda-esr-sorghum-weekly-exports-buyer-pull-impact","type":"impact-matrix-row","regionId":"north-america","pressure":"weather","pressureLabel":"Weather and heat","sectors":["feed","crops","beef","dairy"],"severity":"high","confidence":84,"score":3172,"title":"North America: Sorghum export pull weekly exports changed weekly buyer pull","currentSignal":"Corn, sorghum, and meal export pull can change domestic feed basis, ration coverage, feeder bids, and gain economics.","howItAffects":"Export buyer pull before customs data confirms it: Beef cutout support, grain basis, local processor bids, and feed ingredient demand","pastPattern":"90 days to 5 years history usually shows up in 1-18 months: Backgrounding and finishing margins compress Dairy ration spend rises before cull flow changes Crop producers may gain price opportunity while livestock producers face cost risk","forwardScenario":"Feed cost spike: Corn, hay, soybean meal, fuel, or freight costs rise faster than cattle value.","producerAction":"Check delivered feed and basis before buying feeders, holding cattle for more weight, or leaving protein needs uncovered.","source":{"id":"usda-esr","name":"USDA Export Sales Reporting","category":"Trade","officialUrl":"https://apps.fas.usda.gov/export-sales/esrd1.html"},"sourceGraph":{"id":"export-sales-to-buyer-pull","signal":"Weekly export commitments and shipments by commodity and destination","driver":"Export buyer pull before customs data confirms it","affects":"Beef cutout support, grain basis, local processor bids, and feed ingredient demand","producerDecision":"Watch export-sales acceleration as an early signal for stronger cash bids or tighter feed.","lag":"1-5 weeks","confidence":83},"historicalDriver":{"id":"crop-balance-to-feed-margin","driver":"Crop balance becomes feed margin","lookbackWindow":"90 days to 5 years","forwardWindow":"1-18 months","lag":"Acreage and crop condition lead production; production leads feed price; feed price leads cattle and milk margins.","leadingSignals":["Acreage, crop progress, and soil moisture shift together","Balance-sheet revisions tighten ending stocks","Rail, freight, or port pressure widens local basis"],"forwardEffects":["Backgrounding and finishing margins compress","Dairy ration spend rises before cull flow changes","Crop producers may gain price opportunity while livestock producers face cost risk"],"producerDecision":"Use the crop balance to decide feed coverage, hay buying, grain pricing, and stocking rate.","confidence":84},"scenario":{"id":"feed-cost-spike","name":"Feed cost spike","sector":"feed","defaultIntensity":35,"description":"Corn, hay, soybean meal, fuel, or freight costs rise faster than cattle value.","producerDecision":"Recalculate whether the next gain period is still worth feeding."},"evidence":[{"id":"usda-esr-sorghum-weekly-exports-buyer-pull-impact","kind":"impact","title":"Sorghum export pull weekly exports changed weekly buyer pull","summary":"184 thousand mt in the latest USDA FAS export-sales XML. Weekly change is +2605%.","sourceName":"USDA Export Sales Reporting","sourceUrl":"https://apps.fas.usda.gov/export-sales/esrd1.html","date":null,"confidence":84,"evidenceKey":"impact:usda-esr-sorghum-weekly-exports-buyer-pull-impact"},{"id":"usda-esr-sorghum-weekly-exports","kind":"observation","title":"Sorghum export pull weekly exports","summary":"USDA FAS Export Sales Reporting reported sorghum export pull weekly exports at 183.9 thousand metric tons for week ending 2026-05-28, versus 6.8 thousand metric tons a week earlier (+2605% versus the prior week). Strong export pull can tighten feed basis before local ration quotes fully reset.","sourceName":"USDA FAS Export Sales Reporting","sourceUrl":"https://apps.fas.usda.gov/esrqs/StaticReports/CWRCommoditySummary.xml","date":"2026-05-28","confidence":84,"evidenceKey":"observation:usda-esr-sorghum-weekly-exports"}],"path":{"id":"path-north-america-impact-usda-esr-sorghum-weekly-exports-buyer-pull-impact","signalType":"impact","updatedAt":"2026-06-06T11:37:42.824Z","evidenceIds":["usda-esr-sorghum-weekly-exports-buyer-pull-impact","usda-esr-sorghum-weekly-exports"],"sourceGraphEdgeIds":["export-sales-to-buyer-pull","fas-trade-to-basis","wasde-feed-balance-to-cattle-margin","feed-energy-to-breakeven"],"historicalDriverIds":["crop-balance-to-feed-margin"],"scenarioIds":["feed-cost-spike","crop-yield-shock","export-disruption"]},"impactChain":[{"id":"path-north-america-impact-usda-esr-sorghum-weekly-exports-buyer-pull-impact:source","label":"Source","title":"USDA Export Sales 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spend rises before cull flow changes Crop producers may gain price opportunity while livestock producers face cost risk"},{"id":"path-north-america-impact-usda-esr-sorghum-weekly-exports-buyer-pull-impact:scenario","label":"Scenario","title":"Feed cost spike","detail":"Feed cost spike: Corn, hay, soybean meal, fuel, or freight costs rise faster than cattle value."},{"id":"path-north-america-impact-usda-esr-sorghum-weekly-exports-buyer-pull-impact:action","label":"Action","title":"Producer decision","detail":"Check delivered feed and basis before buying feeders, holding cattle for more weight, or leaving protein needs uncovered."}],"canonicalDataUrl":"https://cattleweightestimation.com/market-pulse/impact-matrix.json?region=north-america&pressure=weather&lang=en"},{"id":"path-north-america-impact-usda-nass-crop-progress-pasture-good-excellent-2026-06-01-official-report-impact","type":"impact-matrix-row","regionId":"north-america","pressure":"weather","pressureLabel":"Weather and heat","sectors":["feed","crops","beef","dairy"],"severity":"high","confidence":91,"score":3170,"title":"North America: U.S. pasture good/excellent changes the official crop progress read","currentSignal":"Feed coverage, hay buying, pasture carrying days, local basis, feeder bids, and whether extra retained weight still pays.","howItAffects":"Herd cycle, feeder supply, and feed availability: Replacement strategy, retained heifers, and forward feeder supply","pastPattern":"30-120 days history usually shows up in 2-16 weeks: More calves and cull cows move earlier Replacement animals face discount risk in dry regions Feed cost can erase the value of extra gain","forwardScenario":"Drought tightens forage: Pasture weakens, hay gets tighter, and more cows or calves can move earlier than planned.","producerAction":"Move this NASS read into the feed plan now: count forage days, price hay and grain, then compare selling lighter cattle against buying another gain period.","source":{"id":"usda-nass","name":"USDA NASS QuickStats and ESMIS reports","category":"Inventory","officialUrl":"https://esmis.nal.usda.gov/"},"sourceGraph":{"id":"nass-inventory-to-cycle","signal":"Inventory, placements, pasture, hay, crop data","driver":"Herd cycle, feeder supply, and feed availability","affects":"Replacement strategy, retained heifers, and forward feeder supply","producerDecision":"Decide whether scarce replacement animals are worth keeping or selling.","lag":"1 month to 1 year","confidence":86},"historicalDriver":{"id":"pasture-stress-to-sale-runs","driver":"Pasture stress becomes sale pressure","lookbackWindow":"30-120 days","forwardWindow":"2-16 weeks","lag":"Pasture stress usually hits feed buying first, sale runs second, and replacement prices last.","leadingSignals":["Soil moisture drops below seasonal median","Pasture condition ratings deteriorate","Hay and supplement quotes firm before auction volume rises"],"forwardEffects":["More calves and cull cows move earlier","Replacement animals face discount risk in dry regions","Feed cost can erase the value of extra gain"],"producerDecision":"Move from calendar-based selling to forage-days and feed-margin selling.","confidence":86},"scenario":{"id":"drought-shock","name":"Drought tightens forage","sector":"feed","defaultIntensity":42,"description":"Pasture weakens, hay gets tighter, and more cows or calves can move earlier than planned.","producerDecision":"Check forage inventory, water, and the value of selling lighter cattle before everyone else is forced to."},"evidence":[{"id":"usda-nass-crop-progress-pasture-good-excellent-2026-06-01-official-report-impact","kind":"impact","title":"U.S. pasture good/excellent changes the official crop progress read","summary":"30 % in the 2026-06-01 USDA NASS Crop Progress; -12.0 points versus last year. This is an official supply, feed, dairy, or pasture signal to read before treating local prices as isolated.","sourceName":"USDA NASS QuickStats and ESMIS reports","sourceUrl":"https://esmis.nal.usda.gov/","date":null,"confidence":91,"evidenceKey":"impact:usda-nass-crop-progress-pasture-good-excellent-2026-06-01-official-report-impact"},{"id":"usda-nass-crop-progress-pasture-good-excellent-2026-06-01","kind":"observation","title":"U.S. pasture good/excellent","summary":"2026-06-01 NASS Crop Progress: U.S. pasture good/excellent is 30 %; -12.0 points versus last year. Put it beside local corn, hay, pasture, freight, and weather before changing feed coverage, buying feeders, or holding cattle for more gain.","sourceName":"USDA NASS ESMIS","sourceUrl":"https://esmis.nal.usda.gov/sites/default/release-files/795928/prog2226.txt","date":"2026-06-01","confidence":86,"evidenceKey":"observation:usda-nass-crop-progress-pasture-good-excellent-2026-06-01"}],"path":{"id":"path-north-america-impact-usda-nass-crop-progress-pasture-good-excellent-2026-06-01-official-report-impact","signalType":"impact","updatedAt":"2026-06-06T11:37:42.823Z","evidenceIds":["usda-nass-crop-progress-pasture-good-excellent-2026-06-01-official-report-impact","usda-nass-crop-progress-pasture-good-excellent-2026-06-01"],"sourceGraphEdgeIds":["nass-inventory-to-cycle","drought-to-retention","feed-energy-to-breakeven"],"historicalDriverIds":["pasture-stress-to-sale-runs","crop-balance-to-feed-margin"],"scenarioIds":["drought-shock","feed-cost-spike"]},"impactChain":[{"id":"path-north-america-impact-usda-nass-crop-progress-pasture-good-excellent-2026-06-01-official-report-impact:source","label":"Source","title":"USDA NASS QuickStats and ESMIS reports","detail":"https://esmis.nal.usda.gov/"},{"id":"path-north-america-impact-usda-nass-crop-progress-pasture-good-excellent-2026-06-01-official-report-impact:signal","label":"Current signal","title":"North America: U.S. pasture good/excellent changes the official crop progress read","detail":"Feed coverage, hay buying, pasture carrying days, local basis, feeder bids, and whether extra retained weight still pays."},{"id":"path-north-america-impact-usda-nass-crop-progress-pasture-good-excellent-2026-06-01-official-report-impact:driver","label":"Impact","title":"Herd cycle, feeder supply, and feed availability","detail":"Herd cycle, feeder supply, and feed availability: Replacement strategy, retained heifers, and forward feeder supply"},{"id":"path-north-america-impact-usda-nass-crop-progress-pasture-good-excellent-2026-06-01-official-report-impact:history","label":"History","title":"Pasture stress becomes sale pressure","detail":"30-120 days history usually shows up in 2-16 weeks: More calves and cull cows move earlier Replacement animals face discount risk in dry regions Feed cost can erase the value of extra gain"},{"id":"path-north-america-impact-usda-nass-crop-progress-pasture-good-excellent-2026-06-01-official-report-impact:scenario","label":"Scenario","title":"Drought tightens forage","detail":"Drought tightens forage: Pasture weakens, hay gets tighter, and more cows or calves can move earlier than planned."},{"id":"path-north-america-impact-usda-nass-crop-progress-pasture-good-excellent-2026-06-01-official-report-impact:action","label":"Action","title":"Producer decision","detail":"Move this NASS read into the feed plan now: count forage days, price hay and grain, then compare selling lighter cattle against buying another gain period."}],"canonicalDataUrl":"https://cattleweightestimation.com/market-pulse/impact-matrix.json?region=north-america&pressure=weather&lang=en"}],"citationText":"North America impact matrix summarizes 3 source-to-action paths across 2 market pressures."}}