{"name":"Cattle Market Pulse operation playbooks","description":"Region-filtered cattle and farm operation playbooks for beef, dairy, feed/crop, and mixed farms. 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s":["ams-price-to-sale-window","drought-to-retention","wasde-feed-balance-to-cattle-margin","nass-inventory-to-cycle","fas-trade-to-basis","ers-feed-grains-to-breakeven","nasa-weather-to-heat","export-sales-to-buyer-pull"],"score":4283}],"scenarios":[{"id":"drought-shock","name":"Drought tightens forage","sector":"feed","defaultIntensity":42,"producerDecision":"Check forage inventory, water, and the value of selling lighter cattle before everyone else is forced to."},{"id":"export-disruption","name":"Export or border disruption","sector":"beef","defaultIntensity":30,"producerDecision":"Do not assume local bids are stable when export channels or border rules move."},{"id":"feed-cost-spike","name":"Feed cost spike","sector":"feed","defaultIntensity":35,"producerDecision":"Recalculate whether the next gain period is still worth feeding."},{"id":"disease-alert","name":"Disease alert or movement hold","sector":"animal-health","defaultIntensity":28,"producerDecision":"Treat health status as a market signal before buying, moving, or selling cattle."},{"id":"crop-yield-shock","name":"Crop yield shock","sector":"crops","defaultIntensity":38,"producerDecision":"Decide whether to protect feed needs, price grain, adjust planting, or buy hay before local shortages are obvious."}],"historicalDrivers":[{"id":"pasture-stress-to-sale-runs","driver":"Pasture stress becomes sale pressure","lag":"Pasture stress usually hits feed buying first, sale runs second, and replacement prices last.","forwardWindow":"2-16 weeks","producerDecision":"Move from calendar-based selling to forage-days and feed-margin selling.","confidence":86},{"id":"crop-balance-to-feed-margin","driver":"Crop balance becomes feed margin","lag":"Acreage and crop condition lead production; production leads feed price; feed price leads cattle and milk margins.","forwardWindow":"1-18 months","producerDecision":"Use the crop balance to decide feed coverage, hay buying, grain pricing, and stocking rate.","confidence":84},{"id":"health-alert-to-market-access","driver":"Animal-health alerts become market-access friction","lag":"A disease notice can affect movement immediately, then trade access and buyer confidence over weeks or months.","forwardWindow":"Same day to 12 months","producerDecision":"Check health status before moving cattle, buying replacements, or signing export-sensitive commitments.","confidence":83},{"id":"export-pull-to-local-basis","driver":"Export pull changes local basis","lag":"Export sales lead shipments; shipments lead customs totals; customs totals confirm structural demand.","forwardWindow":"1-12 weeks","producerDecision":"Price cattle and crops with local basis plus destination exposure, not only the national headline.","confidence":82},{"id":"heat-load-to-milk-gain","driver":"Heat load becomes milk and weight-gain drag","lag":"Heat and humidity affect intake first, then milk, weight gain, conception, and sale timing.","forwardWindow":"Same day to 12 weeks","producerDecision":"Move heat mitigation and ration timing ahead of sale-weight or milk-output assumptions.","confidence":82}],"calendarItems":[{"id":"calendar-driver-credit-cost-to-retention","kind":"historical-driver","kindLabel":"Historical rule","window":"today","windowLabel":"Today","priority":"act","priorityLabel":"Act now","regionId":"north-america","sectors":["beef","dairy","feed","crops"],"title":"Credit cost changes retention and input timing","summary":"Interest and credit changes hit input prepay and replacements before they show up in herd-size data.","producerAction":"Run feed, replacement, and planting choices through a cash-flow calendar before chasing headline price.","checkBefore":"Review before closing a sale, moving animals, buying feed, or changing coverage today.","sourceId":"fred-ag-macro","sourceName":"FRED agriculture macro series","sourceUrl":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/docs/api/fred/","cadence":"Daily to monthly","updatePriority":null,"confidence":79,"severity":"high","evidenceIds":[],"scenarioIds":["fertilizer-energy-squeeze","credit-interest-squeeze"],"historicalDriverIds":["credit-cost-to-retention"],"sourceGraphEdgeIds":["fred-ag-macro-category-causal-edge","macro-fx-to-export-bids","world-bank-wdi-to-structural-supply","bls-inputs-to-feed-margin"],"score":3519},{"id":"calendar-event-google-news-rss-global-feed-trade-screwworm-flies-add-to-cattle-ranchers-woes-the-new-york-times-2026-06-06","kind":"current-event","kindLabel":"Market event","window":"today","windowLabel":"Today","priority":"act","priorityLabel":"Act now","regionId":"north-america","sectors":["beef","animal-health","dairy"],"title":"Screwworm Flies Add to Cattle Ranchers’ Woes - The New York Times","summary":"Google News public search RSS published an animal-health item. Treat it as a movement, buyer-access, and biosecurity signal before it becomes a price headline.","producerAction":"Check movement, replacement purchases, and export-linked commitments before assuming normal buyer access.","checkBefore":"Review before closing a sale, moving animals, buying feed, or changing coverage today.","sourceId":"google-news-rss","sourceName":"Google News public search RSS","sourceUrl":"https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMihgFBVV95cUxPam5NTGN1NjhwVUl6QmJRRXpTUksxSXk3YW5uSXVWV1FKT2p4dVNCNzhMSEFRNnBSTk5vWWJzR3NjMmJUM2RJVnZpQVZLNF9DWUZ4V1VfTE9waU4xd0IxVnJHNm9malJsTGE1X0ZVckpjbHRHSDlESmN2cWZMNktHb2FDQzJNUQ?oc=5","cadence":"Near real time","updatePriority":null,"confidence":82,"severity":"high","evidenceIds":["google-news-rss-global-feed-trade-screwworm-flies-add-to-cattle-ranchers-woes-the-new-york-times-2026-06-06"],"scenarioIds":["disease-alert"],"historicalDriverIds":["export-pull-to-local-basis"],"sourceGraphEdgeIds":["google-news-rss-category-causal-edge","wahis-disease-to-movement"],"score":3514},{"id":"calendar-event-google-news-rss-animal-health-canada-bans-texas-cattle-over-flesh-eating-screwworm-outbreak-in-us-bbc-2026-06-06","kind":"current-event","kindLabel":"Market event","window":"today","windowLabel":"Today","priority":"act","priorityLabel":"Act now","regionId":"north-america","sectors":["beef","animal-health","dairy"],"title":"Canada bans Texas cattle over flesh-eating screwworm outbreak in US - BBC","summary":"Google News public search RSS published an animal-health item. Treat it as a movement, buyer-access, and biosecurity signal before it becomes a price headline.","producerAction":"Check movement, replacement purchases, and export-linked commitments before assuming normal buyer access.","checkBefore":"Review before closing a sale, moving animals, buying feed, or changing coverage today.","sourceId":"google-news-rss","sourceName":"Google News public search RSS","sourceUrl":"https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiWkFVX3lxTE02Q0NodGVFcGVBOVBROVVKWkF5NHhlZkV1X0puU3JrWHYxaEJlODFXZFNDczFYbURXdTJGQ3pqUWxORmFGYnl3Rll1OGhJYWdRa1VmSERGZGh0QQ?oc=5","cadence":"Near real time","updatePriority":null,"confidence":82,"severity":"high","evidenceIds":["google-news-rss-animal-health-canada-bans-texas-cattle-over-flesh-eating-screwworm-outbreak-in-us-bbc-2026-06-06"],"scenarioIds":["disease-alert"],"historicalDriverIds":["export-pull-to-local-basis"],"sourceGraphEdgeIds":["google-news-rss-category-causal-edge","wahis-disease-to-movement"],"score":3514},{"id":"calendar-event-google-news-rss-animal-health-us-plans-to-fight-flesh-eating-screwworm-outbreak-with-flies-and-dogs-bbc-2026-06-06","kind":"current-event","kindLabel":"Market event","window":"today","windowLabel":"Today","priority":"act","priorityLabel":"Act now","regionId":"north-america","sectors":["animal-health","beef","dairy"],"title":"US plans to fight flesh-eating screwworm outbreak with flies and dogs - BBC","summary":"Google News public search RSS published an animal-health item. Treat it as a movement, buyer-access, and biosecurity signal before it becomes a price headline.","producerAction":"Check movement, replacement purchases, and export-linked commitments before assuming normal buyer access.","checkBefore":"Review before closing a sale, moving animals, buying feed, or changing coverage today.","sourceId":"google-news-rss","sourceName":"Google News public search RSS","sourceUrl":"https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiWkFVX3lxTFBibTB3eS1FdHY1U2U3LThVVUgzNEZCb1ZPSW90cTVqZy1uaUxQMldUSTM5MWZHOV9KQjVOaU5jeVJybGJBN2pJanFiZ2ZTckFyZmZfYlY3b21QZw?oc=5","cadence":"Near real time","updatePriority":null,"confidence":82,"severity":"high","evidenceIds":["google-news-rss-animal-health-us-plans-to-fight-flesh-eating-screwworm-outbreak-with-flies-and-dogs-bbc-2026-06-06"],"scenarioIds":["disease-alert"],"historicalDriverIds":["export-pull-to-local-basis"],"sourceGraphEdgeIds":["google-news-rss-category-causal-edge","wahis-disease-to-movement"],"score":3514}]},{"id":"operation-playbook-north-america-dairy-en","operation":"dairy","operationLabel":"Dairy herd","subtitle":"Milk margin, feed coverage, herd health, cull timing, and replacement pressure.","regionId":"north-america","headline":"North America: Sell or hold","currentRead":"323 evidence items across 32 source families. 52 % D2+ area in the latest U.S. Drought Monitor. D2+ is the official severe-drought footprint to read before assuming pasture, hay, and water pressure stay local.","topAction":"Compare local bid strength with feed, forage, health, and freight before holding cattle for more gain.","nextCheck":"Watch local price, slaughter/cull flow, yardings, drought footprint, and whether replacement cost is changing the real sale value.","riskLevel":"high","confidence":83,"sourceFamilies":[{"id":"us-drought-monitor","name":"U.S. Drought Monitor","category":"Weather","officialUrl":"https://www.drought.gov/data-maps-tools/us-drought-monitor","cadence":"Weekly"}],"evidenceCount":131,"decisionCount":3,"items":[{"id":"playbook-brief-decision-north-america-sell-hold","kind":"decision-brief","priority":"act","priorityLabel":"Act now","severity":"high","title":"North America: Sell or hold","why":"323 evidence items across 32 source families. 52 % D2+ area in the latest U.S. Drought Monitor. D2+ is the official severe-drought footprint to read before assuming pasture, hay, and water pressure stay local.","action":"Compare local bid strength with feed, forage, health, and freight before holding cattle for more gain.","timing":"Watch local price, slaughter/cull flow, yardings, drought footprint, and whether replacement cost is changing the real sale value.","sourceId":"us-drought-monitor","sourceName":"U.S. Drought Monitor","sourceUrl":"https://www.drought.gov/data-maps-tools/us-drought-monitor","confidence":83,"sectors":["beef","dairy","feed","crops","animal-health"],"evidenceIds":["us-drought-monitor-southern-plains-d2-plus","us-drought-monitor-conus-d2-plus","usda-esr-beef-net-sales","usda-esr-beef-weekly-exports","usda-ams-national-direct-slaughter-cattle-live-price","fas-psd-ca-cattle","fas-psd-ca-corn-feed","fas-psd-ca-soybean-meal-feed","us-drought-monitor-colorado-d2-plus","us-drought-monitor-kansas-d2-plus","fas-psd-mx-cattle","fas-psd-mx-corn-feed","fas-psd-mx-sorghum-feed","fas-psd-mx-soybean-meal-feed","us-drought-monitor-nebraska-d2-plus","us-drought-monitor-new-mexico-d2-plus","us-drought-monitor-oklahoma-d2-plus","us-drought-monitor-texas-d2-plus","fas-psd-us-cattle","fas-psd-us-corn-feed","fas-psd-us-sorghum-feed","fas-psd-us-soybean-meal-feed","usda-esr-corn-net-sales","usda-esr-corn-weekly-exports","us-drought-monitor-southern-plains-d2-plus-forage-retention-impact","us-drought-monitor-colorado-d2-plus-forage-retention-impact","us-drought-monitor-nebraska-d2-plus-forage-retention-impact","us-drought-monitor-new-mexico-d2-plus-forage-retention-impact","us-drought-monitor-oklahoma-d2-plus-forage-retention-impact","usda-nass-livestock-slaughter-cattle-slaughter-2026-05-21-official-report-impact","usda-nass-cattle-on-feed-fed-cattle-marketings-2026-05-22-official-report-impact","usda-nass-crop-progress-pasture-good-excellent-2026-06-01-official-report-impact","usda-nass-crop-progress-pasture-poor-very-poor-2026-06-01-official-report-impact","fas-psd-ca-beef-balance-sheet-impact","usda-ers-feed-grains-corn-ending-stocks-feed-margin-impact","usda-wasde-mexico-corn-stocks-monthly-balance-impact","fas-psd-mx-beef-balance-sheet-impact","fas-psd-mx-cattle-balance-sheet-impact","fas-psd-mx-sorghum-feed-balance-sheet-impact","fas-psd-mx-soybean-meal-feed-balance-sheet-impact","usda-wasde-mexico-soymeal-stocks-monthly-balance-impact","usda-wasde-us-corn-stocks-monthly-balance-impact","usda-wasde-us-corn-price-monthly-balance-impact","usda-wasde-us-sorghum-feed-monthly-balance-impact","fas-psd-us-sorghum-feed-balance-sheet-impact","cftc-cot-live-cattle-hedge-margin-impact","open-meteo-water-demand-southern-plains-water-heat-impact","usda-esr-beef-net-sales-buyer-pull-impact","nasa-power-southern-plains-rainfall-baseline","usgs-water-southern-plains-30d-baseline","gdelt-global-news-internazionale-it-screwworm-border-closure-fuels-beef-boom-in-mexico-gloom-in-texas-2026-06-06","google-news-rss-global-feed-trade-screwworm-flies-add-to-cattle-ranchers-woes-the-new-york-times-2026-06-06","google-news-rss-animal-health-canada-bans-texas-cattle-over-flesh-eating-screwworm-outbreak-in-us-bbc-2026-06-06","google-news-rss-animal-health-us-plans-to-fight-flesh-eating-screwworm-outbreak-with-flies-and-dogs-bbc-2026-06-06","google-news-rss-animal-health-first-u-s-screwworm-case-since-1960s-prompts-texas-emergency-response-the-new-york-t-2026-06-06","google-news-rss-animal-health-texas-ranchers-on-edge-after-screwworm-parasite-detected-in-calf-reuters-2026-06-05","google-news-rss-animal-health-texas-a-m-agrilife-responds-after-new-world-screwworm-found-in-texas-the-texas-a-m-u-2026-06-05","gdelt-global-news-stuttgartdailyleader-com-uada-economist-screwworm-news-will-rattle-local-texas-new-mexico-cattle-markets-but--2026-06-05","google-news-rss-animal-health-what-to-know-about-the-new-world-screwworm-fly-and-its-u-s-reappearance-pbs-2026-06-05","google-news-rss-animal-health-naig-iowa-is-monitoring-screwworm-parasite-poses-no-food-safety-risk-iowa-capital-di-2026-06-05","google-news-rss-animal-health-why-new-world-screwworm-confirmation-sparked-surprise-rebound-in-cattle-futures-drov-2026-06-05","farmprogress-rss-usda-s-preferred-weapon-vs-new-world-screwworm-has-wings-but-isn-t-a-drone-2026-06-05","gdelt-global-news-dailydispatch-co-za-us-scrambles-to-contain-flesh-eating-screwworm-outbreak-2026-06-05","google-news-rss-animal-health-new-world-screwworm-confirmed-in-texas-stoking-fresh-cattle-fears-axios-2026-06-05","google-news-rss-animal-health-the-new-world-screwworm-is-back-here-s-what-that-means-the-new-york-times-2026-06-05","google-news-rss-animal-health-new-mexico-on-edge-for-livestock-infections-as-screwworm-hits-texas-santa-fe-new-mex-2026-06-05","google-news-rss-animal-health-north-texas-cattle-ranchers-on-alert-amid-new-world-screwworm-case-cbs-news-2026-06-04","google-news-rss-animal-health-screwworm-fly-detected-in-texas-decades-after-cattle-threat-was-largely-eradicated-i-2026-06-04","farmprogress-rss-texas-new-world-screwworm-detection-what-s-next-for-ranchers-2026-06-04","google-news-rss-africa-livestock-feed-screwworm-shock-lifts-cattle-prices-as-texas-faces-1-8-billion-risk-agrolatam-2026-06-04","hay-pasture-forage","dairy-milk","currency-brl-usd","diesel-freight","corn-feedgrain","united-states","soybean-meal","drought-heat-water","fertilizer","port-border-access","tariffs-quotas-policy","texas-border"],"scenarioIds":["drought-shock","export-disruption","feed-cost-spike","disease-alert","crop-yield-shock","milk-margin-squeeze","fertilizer-energy-squeeze","geopolitical-shipping-shock"],"historicalDriverIds":["pasture-stress-to-sale-runs","crop-balance-to-feed-margin","health-alert-to-market-access","export-pull-to-local-basis","heat-load-to-milk-gain","dairy-margin-to-beef-supply","credit-cost-to-retention","geopolitical-shock-to-feed-freight"],"sourceGraphEdgeIds":["ams-price-to-sale-window","drought-to-retention","wasde-feed-balance-to-cattle-margin","nass-inventory-to-cycle","fas-trade-to-basis","aphis-h5n1-to-dairy-movement","ers-feed-grains-to-breakeven","nasa-weather-to-heat"],"score":4283},{"id":"playbook-brief-decision-north-america-feed-margin","kind":"decision-brief","priority":"act","priorityLabel":"Act now","severity":"high","title":"North America: Feed margin","why":"280 evidence items across 30 source families. 52 % D2+ area in the latest U.S. Drought Monitor. D2+ is the official severe-drought footprint to read before assuming pasture, hay, and water pressure stay local.","action":"Recalculate breakeven, hay replacement, freight, and ration intensity before paying for more weight.","timing":"Watch corn and meal cover, pasture days, diesel/freight, and whether cattle price is keeping up with gain cost.","sourceId":"us-drought-monitor","sourceName":"U.S. Drought Monitor","sourceUrl":"https://www.drought.gov/data-maps-tools/us-drought-monitor","confidence":83,"sectors":["beef","dairy","feed","crops","animal-health"],"evidenceIds":["us-drought-monitor-southern-plains-d2-plus","us-drought-monitor-conus-d2-plus","fas-psd-ca-corn-feed","fas-psd-ca-milk-fluid","fas-psd-ca-soybean-meal-feed","us-drought-monitor-colorado-d2-plus","us-drought-monitor-kansas-d2-plus","fas-psd-mx-corn-feed","fas-psd-mx-milk-fluid","fas-psd-mx-sorghum-feed","fas-psd-mx-soybean-meal-feed","us-drought-monitor-nebraska-d2-plus","us-drought-monitor-new-mexico-d2-plus","us-drought-monitor-oklahoma-d2-plus","us-drought-monitor-texas-d2-plus","fas-psd-us-corn-feed","fas-psd-us-milk-fluid","fas-psd-us-sorghum-feed","fas-psd-us-soybean-meal-feed","usda-esr-corn-net-sales","usda-esr-corn-weekly-exports","usda-esr-soybean-meal-net-sales","usda-esr-soybean-meal-weekly-exports","usda-nass-cattle-all-feedlot-cattle-2026-01-30","us-drought-monitor-southern-plains-d2-plus-forage-retention-impact","us-drought-monitor-colorado-d2-plus-forage-retention-impact","us-drought-monitor-nebraska-d2-plus-forage-retention-impact","us-drought-monitor-new-mexico-d2-plus-forage-retention-impact","us-drought-monitor-oklahoma-d2-plus-forage-retention-impact","usda-nass-livestock-slaughter-cattle-slaughter-2026-05-21-official-report-impact","usda-nass-cattle-on-feed-fed-cattle-marketings-2026-05-22-official-report-impact","usda-nass-crop-progress-pasture-good-excellent-2026-06-01-official-report-impact","usda-nass-crop-progress-pasture-poor-very-poor-2026-06-01-official-report-impact","usda-ers-feed-grains-corn-ending-stocks-feed-margin-impact","usda-wasde-mexico-corn-stocks-monthly-balance-impact","fas-psd-mx-cattle-balance-sheet-impact","fas-psd-mx-sorghum-feed-balance-sheet-impact","fas-psd-mx-soybean-meal-feed-balance-sheet-impact","usda-wasde-mexico-soymeal-stocks-monthly-balance-impact","usda-wasde-us-corn-stocks-monthly-balance-impact","usda-wasde-us-corn-price-monthly-balance-impact","usda-wasde-us-sorghum-feed-monthly-balance-impact","fas-psd-us-sorghum-feed-balance-sheet-impact","cftc-cot-live-cattle-hedge-margin-impact","open-meteo-water-demand-southern-plains-water-heat-impact","open-meteo-forecast-southern-plains-forward-forage-impact","cftc-cot-corn-hedge-margin-impact","fao-food-price-sugar-north-america-global-food-margin-impact","nasa-power-southern-plains-rainfall-baseline","usgs-water-southern-plains-30d-baseline","fao-newsroom-rss-strait-of-hormuz-time-running-out-to-avert-global-food-security-crisis-fao-warns-2026-05-26","google-news-rss-global-feed-trade-nato-to-beef-up-forces-assigned-to-defend-baltics-in-war-sources-say-reuters-2026-05-26","fao-newsroom-rss-strait-of-hormuz-conflict-threatens-global-food-prices-as-fao-warns-time-is-running--2026-05-20","fao-newsroom-rss-strait-of-hormuz-crisis-fertilizer-scarcity-will-affect-next-harvests-and-food-suppl-2026-05-07","agriland-rss-major-food-companies-lagging-on-methane-targets-report-2026-06-06","usda-ams-published-2073-2026-06-06","usda-ams-published-3150-2026-06-05","usda-ams-published-3156-2026-06-05","usda-ams-published-3495-2026-06-05","usda-ams-published-2875-2026-06-05","usda-ams-published-2871-2026-06-05","usda-ams-published-2870-2026-06-05","usda-ams-published-2825-2026-06-05","usda-ams-published-2829-2026-06-05","usda-ams-published-3239-2026-06-05","fao-newsroom-rss-fao-food-price-index-broadly-stable-in-may-even-as-cereal-quotations-increase-2026-06-05","google-news-rss-canada-cattle-feed-does-calm-cattle-handling-pay-off-in-the-feedlot-canadian-cattlemen-2026-06-05","reliefweb-agriculture-rss-world-fao-food-price-index-broadly-stable-in-may-even-as-cereal-quotations-increase-2026-06-05","google-news-rss-spanish-animal-health-los-futuros-del-ganado-caen-tras-caso-confirmado-de-gusano-barrenador-en-texas-ganad-2026-06-05","farmprogress-rss-adjusting-for-higher-costs-in-2026-2026-06-05","hay-pasture-forage","dairy-milk","currency-brl-usd","diesel-freight","corn-feedgrain","united-states","soybean-meal","drought-heat-water","fertilizer","port-border-access","tariffs-quotas-policy","texas-border"],"scenarioIds":["feed-cost-spike","crop-yield-shock","drought-shock","export-disruption","milk-margin-squeeze","fertilizer-energy-squeeze","geopolitical-shipping-shock","port-freight-shock"],"historicalDriverIds":["pasture-stress-to-sale-runs","crop-balance-to-feed-margin","export-pull-to-local-basis","heat-load-to-milk-gain","dairy-margin-to-beef-supply","credit-cost-to-retention","geopolitical-shock-to-feed-freight","positioning-to-hedge-margin"],"sourceGraphEdgeIds":["ams-price-to-sale-window","drought-to-retention","wasde-feed-balance-to-cattle-margin","nass-inventory-to-cycle","fas-trade-to-basis","ers-feed-grains-to-breakeven","nasa-weather-to-heat","export-sales-to-buyer-pull"],"score":4283},{"id":"playbook-brief-decision-north-america-water-forage","kind":"decision-brief","priority":"act","priorityLabel":"Act now","severity":"high","title":"North America: Water and forage","why":"202 evidence items across 27 source families. 52 % D2+ area in the latest U.S. Drought Monitor. D2+ is the official severe-drought footprint to read before assuming pasture, hay, and water pressure stay local.","action":"Turn weather into pasture budget, water checks, hay replacement, shade, and sale thresholds this week.","timing":"Watch severe drought footprint, seven-day rain, evapotranspiration, water flow, heat load, and hay demand.","sourceId":"us-drought-monitor","sourceName":"U.S. Drought Monitor","sourceUrl":"https://www.drought.gov/data-maps-tools/us-drought-monitor","confidence":83,"sectors":["beef","dairy","feed","crops","animal-health"],"evidenceIds":["us-drought-monitor-southern-plains-d2-plus","us-drought-monitor-conus-d2-plus","fas-psd-ca-milk-fluid","us-drought-monitor-colorado-d2-plus","us-drought-monitor-kansas-d2-plus","fas-psd-mx-milk-fluid","us-drought-monitor-nebraska-d2-plus","us-drought-monitor-new-mexico-d2-plus","us-drought-monitor-oklahoma-d2-plus","us-drought-monitor-texas-d2-plus","fas-psd-us-milk-fluid","usda-nass-cattle-all-feedlot-cattle-2026-01-30","usda-wasde-us-milk-price","usda-nass-cattle-on-feed-feedlot-inventory-2026-05-22","usda-nass-crop-progress-corn-emerged-2026-06-01","usda-nass-crop-progress-corn-good-excellent-2026-06-01","usda-nass-crop-progress-corn-planted-2026-06-01","usda-nass-cattle-on-feed-placements-2026-05-22","usda-nass-milk-production-milk-cows-2026-05-22","usda-nass-cattle-milk-cows-inventory-2026-01-30","usda-nass-milk-production-milk-per-cow-2026-05-22","usda-nass-milk-production-milk-production-2026-05-22","usda-wasde-us-milk-production","usda-nass-crop-progress-pasture-good-excellent-2026-06-01","us-drought-monitor-southern-plains-d2-plus-forage-retention-impact","us-drought-monitor-colorado-d2-plus-forage-retention-impact","us-drought-monitor-nebraska-d2-plus-forage-retention-impact","us-drought-monitor-new-mexico-d2-plus-forage-retention-impact","us-drought-monitor-oklahoma-d2-plus-forage-retention-impact","usda-nass-livestock-slaughter-cattle-slaughter-2026-05-21-official-report-impact","usda-nass-cattle-on-feed-fed-cattle-marketings-2026-05-22-official-report-impact","usda-nass-crop-progress-pasture-good-excellent-2026-06-01-official-report-impact","usda-nass-crop-progress-pasture-poor-very-poor-2026-06-01-official-report-impact","usda-ers-feed-grains-corn-ending-stocks-feed-margin-impact","usda-wasde-mexico-corn-stocks-monthly-balance-impact","fas-psd-mx-cattle-balance-sheet-impact","fas-psd-mx-sorghum-feed-balance-sheet-impact","fas-psd-mx-soybean-meal-feed-balance-sheet-impact","usda-wasde-mexico-soymeal-stocks-monthly-balance-impact","usda-wasde-us-corn-stocks-monthly-balance-impact","usda-wasde-us-corn-price-monthly-balance-impact","usda-wasde-us-sorghum-feed-monthly-balance-impact","fas-psd-us-sorghum-feed-balance-sheet-impact","open-meteo-water-demand-southern-plains-water-heat-impact","open-meteo-forecast-southern-plains-forward-forage-impact","cftc-cot-corn-hedge-margin-impact","world-bank-pink-sheet-crude-oil-north-america-commodity-margin-impact","world-bank-pink-sheet-dap-north-america-commodity-margin-impact","nasa-power-southern-plains-rainfall-baseline","usgs-water-southern-plains-30d-baseline","usda-ams-published-2073-2026-06-06","usda-ams-published-3150-2026-06-05","usda-ams-published-3156-2026-06-05","usda-ams-published-3495-2026-06-05","usda-ams-published-2875-2026-06-05","usda-ams-published-2871-2026-06-05","usda-ams-published-2870-2026-06-05","usda-ams-published-2825-2026-06-05","usda-ams-published-2829-2026-06-05","usda-ams-published-3239-2026-06-05","fao-newsroom-rss-fao-food-price-index-broadly-stable-in-may-even-as-cereal-quotations-increase-2026-06-05","google-news-rss-canada-cattle-feed-does-calm-cattle-handling-pay-off-in-the-feedlot-canadian-cattlemen-2026-06-05","google-news-rss-spanish-animal-health-los-futuros-del-ganado-caen-tras-caso-confirmado-de-gusano-barrenador-en-texas-ganad-2026-06-05","farmprogress-rss-adjusting-for-higher-costs-in-2026-2026-06-05","google-news-rss-latam-spanish-cattle-caso-de-gusano-barrenador-en-texas-eleva-los-precios-del-ganado-en-eu-latinus-2026-06-04","google-news-rss-latam-spanish-cattle-caso-del-gusano-barrenador-en-eu-sube-los-precios-del-ganado-y-pone-alerta-al-sector-2026-06-04","google-news-rss-spanish-animal-health-ee-uu-confirma-primer-caso-de-gusano-barrenador-del-ganado-en-casi-una-decada-yahoo--2026-06-04","google-news-rss-north-america-cattle-how-flesh-eating-screwworms-in-cattle-could-raise-us-beef-prices-reuters-2026-06-04","google-news-rss-spanish-animal-health-confirman-primer-caso-de-gusano-barrenador-en-eu-fue-hallado-en-ganado-de-texas-la-j-2026-06-04","google-news-rss-north-america-cattle-james-talarico-says-rising-beef-prices-hurt-texas-bottom-line-houston-public-media-2026-06-03","hay-pasture-forage","dairy-milk","currency-brl-usd","diesel-freight","corn-feedgrain","united-states","soybean-meal","drought-heat-water","fertilizer","port-border-access","tariffs-quotas-policy","texas-border"],"scenarioIds":["drought-shock","water-restriction-shock","heat-stress-milk-loss","feed-cost-spike","export-disruption","crop-yield-shock","milk-margin-squeeze","fertilizer-energy-squeeze"],"historicalDriverIds":["pasture-stress-to-sale-runs","crop-balance-to-feed-margin","export-pull-to-local-basis","heat-load-to-milk-gain","dairy-margin-to-beef-supply","credit-cost-to-retention","geopolitical-shock-to-feed-freight","positioning-to-hedge-margin"],"sourceGraphEdgeIds":["ams-price-to-sale-window","drought-to-retention","wasde-feed-balance-to-cattle-margin","nass-inventory-to-cycle","fas-trade-to-basis","ers-feed-grains-to-breakeven","nasa-weather-to-heat","export-sales-to-buyer-pull"],"score":4283}],"scenarios":[{"id":"drought-shock","name":"Drought tightens forage","sector":"feed","defaultIntensity":42,"producerDecision":"Check forage inventory, water, and the value of selling lighter cattle before everyone else is forced to."},{"id":"export-disruption","name":"Export or border disruption","sector":"beef","defaultIntensity":30,"producerDecision":"Do not assume local bids are stable when export channels or border rules move."},{"id":"feed-cost-spike","name":"Feed cost spike","sector":"feed","defaultIntensity":35,"producerDecision":"Recalculate whether the next gain period is still worth feeding."},{"id":"disease-alert","name":"Disease alert or movement hold","sector":"animal-health","defaultIntensity":28,"producerDecision":"Treat health status as a market signal before buying, moving, or selling cattle."},{"id":"crop-yield-shock","name":"Crop yield shock","sector":"crops","defaultIntensity":38,"producerDecision":"Decide whether to protect feed needs, price grain, adjust planting, or buy hay before local shortages are obvious."}],"historicalDrivers":[{"id":"pasture-stress-to-sale-runs","driver":"Pasture stress becomes sale pressure","lag":"Pasture stress usually hits feed buying first, sale runs second, and replacement prices last.","forwardWindow":"2-16 weeks","producerDecision":"Move from calendar-based selling to forage-days and feed-margin selling.","confidence":86},{"id":"crop-balance-to-feed-margin","driver":"Crop balance becomes feed margin","lag":"Acreage and crop condition lead production; production leads feed price; feed price leads cattle and milk margins.","forwardWindow":"1-18 months","producerDecision":"Use the crop balance to decide feed coverage, hay buying, grain pricing, and stocking rate.","confidence":84},{"id":"health-alert-to-market-access","driver":"Animal-health alerts become market-access friction","lag":"A disease notice can affect movement immediately, then trade access and buyer confidence over weeks or months.","forwardWindow":"Same day to 12 months","producerDecision":"Check health status before moving cattle, buying replacements, or signing export-sensitive commitments.","confidence":83},{"id":"export-pull-to-local-basis","driver":"Export pull changes local basis","lag":"Export sales lead shipments; shipments lead customs totals; customs totals confirm structural demand.","forwardWindow":"1-12 weeks","producerDecision":"Price cattle and crops with local basis plus destination exposure, not only the national headline.","confidence":82},{"id":"heat-load-to-milk-gain","driver":"Heat load becomes milk and weight-gain drag","lag":"Heat and humidity affect intake first, then milk, weight gain, conception, and sale timing.","forwardWindow":"Same day to 12 weeks","producerDecision":"Move heat mitigation and ration timing ahead of sale-weight or milk-output assumptions.","confidence":82}],"calendarItems":[{"id":"calendar-driver-credit-cost-to-retention","kind":"historical-driver","kindLabel":"Historical rule","window":"today","windowLabel":"Today","priority":"act","priorityLabel":"Act now","regionId":"north-america","sectors":["beef","dairy","feed","crops"],"title":"Credit cost changes retention and input timing","summary":"Interest and credit changes hit input prepay and replacements before they show up in herd-size data.","producerAction":"Run feed, replacement, and planting choices through a cash-flow calendar before chasing headline price.","checkBefore":"Review before closing a sale, moving animals, buying feed, or changing coverage today.","sourceId":"fred-ag-macro","sourceName":"FRED agriculture macro series","sourceUrl":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/docs/api/fred/","cadence":"Daily to monthly","updatePriority":null,"confidence":79,"severity":"high","evidenceIds":[],"scenarioIds":["fertilizer-energy-squeeze","credit-interest-squeeze"],"historicalDriverIds":["credit-cost-to-retention"],"sourceGraphEdgeIds":["fred-ag-macro-category-causal-edge","macro-fx-to-export-bids","world-bank-wdi-to-structural-supply","bls-inputs-to-feed-margin"],"score":3519},{"id":"calendar-event-google-news-rss-global-feed-trade-screwworm-flies-add-to-cattle-ranchers-woes-the-new-york-times-2026-06-06","kind":"current-event","kindLabel":"Market event","window":"today","windowLabel":"Today","priority":"act","priorityLabel":"Act now","regionId":"north-america","sectors":["beef","animal-health","dairy"],"title":"Screwworm Flies Add to Cattle Ranchers’ Woes - The New York Times","summary":"Google News public search RSS published an animal-health item. Treat it as a movement, buyer-access, and biosecurity signal before it becomes a price headline.","producerAction":"Check movement, replacement purchases, and export-linked commitments before assuming normal buyer access.","checkBefore":"Review before closing a sale, moving animals, buying feed, or changing coverage today.","sourceId":"google-news-rss","sourceName":"Google News public search RSS","sourceUrl":"https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMihgFBVV95cUxPam5NTGN1NjhwVUl6QmJRRXpTUksxSXk3YW5uSXVWV1FKT2p4dVNCNzhMSEFRNnBSTk5vWWJzR3NjMmJUM2RJVnZpQVZLNF9DWUZ4V1VfTE9waU4xd0IxVnJHNm9malJsTGE1X0ZVckpjbHRHSDlESmN2cWZMNktHb2FDQzJNUQ?oc=5","cadence":"Near real time","updatePriority":null,"confidence":82,"severity":"high","evidenceIds":["google-news-rss-global-feed-trade-screwworm-flies-add-to-cattle-ranchers-woes-the-new-york-times-2026-06-06"],"scenarioIds":["disease-alert"],"historicalDriverIds":["export-pull-to-local-basis"],"sourceGraphEdgeIds":["google-news-rss-category-causal-edge","wahis-disease-to-movement"],"score":3514},{"id":"calendar-event-google-news-rss-animal-health-canada-bans-texas-cattle-over-flesh-eating-screwworm-outbreak-in-us-bbc-2026-06-06","kind":"current-event","kindLabel":"Market event","window":"today","windowLabel":"Today","priority":"act","priorityLabel":"Act now","regionId":"north-america","sectors":["beef","animal-health","dairy"],"title":"Canada bans Texas cattle over flesh-eating screwworm outbreak in US - BBC","summary":"Google News public search RSS published an animal-health item. Treat it as a movement, buyer-access, and biosecurity signal before it becomes a price headline.","producerAction":"Check movement, replacement purchases, and export-linked commitments before assuming normal buyer access.","checkBefore":"Review before closing a sale, moving animals, buying feed, or changing coverage today.","sourceId":"google-news-rss","sourceName":"Google News public search RSS","sourceUrl":"https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiWkFVX3lxTE02Q0NodGVFcGVBOVBROVVKWkF5NHhlZkV1X0puU3JrWHYxaEJlODFXZFNDczFYbURXdTJGQ3pqUWxORmFGYnl3Rll1OGhJYWdRa1VmSERGZGh0QQ?oc=5","cadence":"Near real time","updatePriority":null,"confidence":82,"severity":"high","evidenceIds":["google-news-rss-animal-health-canada-bans-texas-cattle-over-flesh-eating-screwworm-outbreak-in-us-bbc-2026-06-06"],"scenarioIds":["disease-alert"],"historicalDriverIds":["export-pull-to-local-basis"],"sourceGraphEdgeIds":["google-news-rss-category-causal-edge","wahis-disease-to-movement"],"score":3514},{"id":"calendar-event-google-news-rss-animal-health-us-plans-to-fight-flesh-eating-screwworm-outbreak-with-flies-and-dogs-bbc-2026-06-06","kind":"current-event","kindLabel":"Market event","window":"today","windowLabel":"Today","priority":"act","priorityLabel":"Act now","regionId":"north-america","sectors":["animal-health","beef","dairy"],"title":"US plans to fight flesh-eating screwworm outbreak with flies and dogs - BBC","summary":"Google News public search RSS published an animal-health item. Treat it as a movement, buyer-access, and biosecurity signal before it becomes a price headline.","producerAction":"Check movement, replacement purchases, and export-linked commitments before assuming normal buyer access.","checkBefore":"Review before closing a sale, moving animals, buying feed, or changing coverage today.","sourceId":"google-news-rss","sourceName":"Google News public search RSS","sourceUrl":"https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiWkFVX3lxTFBibTB3eS1FdHY1U2U3LThVVUgzNEZCb1ZPSW90cTVqZy1uaUxQMldUSTM5MWZHOV9KQjVOaU5jeVJybGJBN2pJanFiZ2ZTckFyZmZfYlY3b21QZw?oc=5","cadence":"Near real time","updatePriority":null,"confidence":82,"severity":"high","evidenceIds":["google-news-rss-animal-health-us-plans-to-fight-flesh-eating-screwworm-outbreak-with-flies-and-dogs-bbc-2026-06-06"],"scenarioIds":["disease-alert"],"historicalDriverIds":["export-pull-to-local-basis"],"sourceGraphEdgeIds":["google-news-rss-category-causal-edge","wahis-disease-to-movement"],"score":3514}]},{"id":"operation-playbook-north-america-feed-crop-en","operation":"feed-crop","operationLabel":"Feed and crop","subtitle":"Corn, hay, pasture, fertilizer, water, freight, and ration-cost checks.","regionId":"north-america","headline":"North America: Sell or hold","currentRead":"323 evidence items across 32 source families. 52 % D2+ area in the latest U.S. Drought Monitor. D2+ is the official severe-drought footprint to read before assuming pasture, hay, and water pressure stay local.","topAction":"Compare local bid strength with feed, forage, health, and freight before holding cattle for more gain.","nextCheck":"Watch local price, slaughter/cull flow, yardings, drought footprint, and whether replacement cost is changing the real sale value.","riskLevel":"high","confidence":83,"sourceFamilies":[{"id":"us-drought-monitor","name":"U.S. Drought Monitor","category":"Weather","officialUrl":"https://www.drought.gov/data-maps-tools/us-drought-monitor","cadence":"Weekly"}],"evidenceCount":131,"decisionCount":3,"items":[{"id":"playbook-brief-decision-north-america-sell-hold","kind":"decision-brief","priority":"act","priorityLabel":"Act now","severity":"high","title":"North America: Sell or hold","why":"323 evidence items across 32 source families. 52 % D2+ area in the latest U.S. Drought Monitor. D2+ is the official severe-drought footprint to read before assuming pasture, hay, and water pressure stay local.","action":"Compare local bid strength with feed, forage, health, and freight before holding cattle for more gain.","timing":"Watch local price, slaughter/cull flow, yardings, drought footprint, and whether replacement cost is changing the real sale value.","sourceId":"us-drought-monitor","sourceName":"U.S. Drought Monitor","sourceUrl":"https://www.drought.gov/data-maps-tools/us-drought-monitor","confidence":83,"sectors":["beef","dairy","feed","crops","animal-health"],"evidenceIds":["us-drought-monitor-southern-plains-d2-plus","us-drought-monitor-conus-d2-plus","usda-esr-beef-net-sales","usda-esr-beef-weekly-exports","usda-ams-national-direct-slaughter-cattle-live-price","fas-psd-ca-cattle","fas-psd-ca-corn-feed","fas-psd-ca-soybean-meal-feed","us-drought-monitor-colorado-d2-plus","us-drought-monitor-kansas-d2-plus","fas-psd-mx-cattle","fas-psd-mx-corn-feed","fas-psd-mx-sorghum-feed","fas-psd-mx-soybean-meal-feed","us-drought-monitor-nebraska-d2-plus","us-drought-monitor-new-mexico-d2-plus","us-drought-monitor-oklahoma-d2-plus","us-drought-monitor-texas-d2-plus","fas-psd-us-cattle","fas-psd-us-corn-feed","fas-psd-us-sorghum-feed","fas-psd-us-soybean-meal-feed","usda-esr-corn-net-sales","usda-esr-corn-weekly-exports","us-drought-monitor-southern-plains-d2-plus-forage-retention-impact","us-drought-monitor-colorado-d2-plus-forage-retention-impact","us-drought-monitor-nebraska-d2-plus-forage-retention-impact","us-drought-monitor-new-mexico-d2-plus-forage-retention-impact","us-drought-monitor-oklahoma-d2-plus-forage-retention-impact","usda-nass-livestock-slaughter-cattle-slaughter-2026-05-21-official-report-impact","usda-nass-cattle-on-feed-fed-cattle-marketings-2026-05-22-official-report-impact","usda-nass-crop-progress-pasture-good-excellent-2026-06-01-official-report-impact","usda-nass-crop-progress-pasture-poor-very-poor-2026-06-01-official-report-impact","fas-psd-ca-beef-balance-sheet-impact","usda-ers-feed-grains-corn-ending-stocks-feed-margin-impact","usda-wasde-mexico-corn-stocks-monthly-balance-impact","fas-psd-mx-beef-balance-sheet-impact","fas-psd-mx-cattle-balance-sheet-impact","fas-psd-mx-sorghum-feed-balance-sheet-impact","fas-psd-mx-soybean-meal-feed-balance-sheet-impact","usda-wasde-mexico-soymeal-stocks-monthly-balance-impact","usda-wasde-us-corn-stocks-monthly-balance-impact","usda-wasde-us-corn-price-monthly-balance-impact","usda-wasde-us-sorghum-feed-monthly-balance-impact","fas-psd-us-sorghum-feed-balance-sheet-impact","cftc-cot-live-cattle-hedge-margin-impact","open-meteo-water-demand-southern-plains-water-heat-impact","usda-esr-beef-net-sales-buyer-pull-impact","nasa-power-southern-plains-rainfall-baseline","usgs-water-southern-plains-30d-baseline","gdelt-global-news-internazionale-it-screwworm-border-closure-fuels-beef-boom-in-mexico-gloom-in-texas-2026-06-06","google-news-rss-global-feed-trade-screwworm-flies-add-to-cattle-ranchers-woes-the-new-york-times-2026-06-06","google-news-rss-animal-health-canada-bans-texas-cattle-over-flesh-eating-screwworm-outbreak-in-us-bbc-2026-06-06","google-news-rss-animal-health-us-plans-to-fight-flesh-eating-screwworm-outbreak-with-flies-and-dogs-bbc-2026-06-06","google-news-rss-animal-health-first-u-s-screwworm-case-since-1960s-prompts-texas-emergency-response-the-new-york-t-2026-06-06","google-news-rss-animal-health-texas-ranchers-on-edge-after-screwworm-parasite-detected-in-calf-reuters-2026-06-05","google-news-rss-animal-health-texas-a-m-agrilife-responds-after-new-world-screwworm-found-in-texas-the-texas-a-m-u-2026-06-05","gdelt-global-news-stuttgartdailyleader-com-uada-economist-screwworm-news-will-rattle-local-texas-new-mexico-cattle-markets-but--2026-06-05","google-news-rss-animal-health-what-to-know-about-the-new-world-screwworm-fly-and-its-u-s-reappearance-pbs-2026-06-05","google-news-rss-animal-health-naig-iowa-is-monitoring-screwworm-parasite-poses-no-food-safety-risk-iowa-capital-di-2026-06-05","google-news-rss-animal-health-why-new-world-screwworm-confirmation-sparked-surprise-rebound-in-cattle-futures-drov-2026-06-05","farmprogress-rss-usda-s-preferred-weapon-vs-new-world-screwworm-has-wings-but-isn-t-a-drone-2026-06-05","gdelt-global-news-dailydispatch-co-za-us-scrambles-to-contain-flesh-eating-screwworm-outbreak-2026-06-05","google-news-rss-animal-health-new-world-screwworm-confirmed-in-texas-stoking-fresh-cattle-fears-axios-2026-06-05","google-news-rss-animal-health-the-new-world-screwworm-is-back-here-s-what-that-means-the-new-york-times-2026-06-05","google-news-rss-animal-health-new-mexico-on-edge-for-livestock-infections-as-screwworm-hits-texas-santa-fe-new-mex-2026-06-05","google-news-rss-animal-health-north-texas-cattle-ranchers-on-alert-amid-new-world-screwworm-case-cbs-news-2026-06-04","google-news-rss-animal-health-screwworm-fly-detected-in-texas-decades-after-cattle-threat-was-largely-eradicated-i-2026-06-04","farmprogress-rss-texas-new-world-screwworm-detection-what-s-next-for-ranchers-2026-06-04","google-news-rss-africa-livestock-feed-screwworm-shock-lifts-cattle-prices-as-texas-faces-1-8-billion-risk-agrolatam-2026-06-04","hay-pasture-forage","dairy-milk","currency-brl-usd","diesel-freight","corn-feedgrain","united-states","soybean-meal","drought-heat-water","fertilizer","port-border-access","tariffs-quotas-policy","texas-border"],"scenarioIds":["drought-shock","export-disruption","feed-cost-spike","disease-alert","crop-yield-shock","milk-margin-squeeze","fertilizer-energy-squeeze","geopolitical-shipping-shock"],"historicalDriverIds":["pasture-stress-to-sale-runs","crop-balance-to-feed-margin","health-alert-to-market-access","export-pull-to-local-basis","heat-load-to-milk-gain","dairy-margin-to-beef-supply","credit-cost-to-retention","geopolitical-shock-to-feed-freight"],"sourceGraphEdgeIds":["ams-price-to-sale-window","drought-to-retention","wasde-feed-balance-to-cattle-margin","nass-inventory-to-cycle","fas-trade-to-basis","aphis-h5n1-to-dairy-movement","ers-feed-grains-to-breakeven","nasa-weather-to-heat"],"score":4283},{"id":"playbook-brief-decision-north-america-feed-margin","kind":"decision-brief","priority":"act","priorityLabel":"Act now","severity":"high","title":"North America: Feed margin","why":"280 evidence items across 30 source families. 52 % D2+ area in the latest U.S. Drought Monitor. D2+ is the official severe-drought footprint to read before assuming pasture, hay, and water pressure stay local.","action":"Recalculate breakeven, hay replacement, freight, and ration intensity before paying for more weight.","timing":"Watch corn and meal cover, pasture days, diesel/freight, and whether cattle price is keeping up with gain cost.","sourceId":"us-drought-monitor","sourceName":"U.S. Drought Monitor","sourceUrl":"https://www.drought.gov/data-maps-tools/us-drought-monitor","confidence":83,"sectors":["beef","dairy","feed","crops","animal-health"],"evidenceIds":["us-drought-monitor-southern-plains-d2-plus","us-drought-monitor-conus-d2-plus","fas-psd-ca-corn-feed","fas-psd-ca-milk-fluid","fas-psd-ca-soybean-meal-feed","us-drought-monitor-colorado-d2-plus","us-drought-monitor-kansas-d2-plus","fas-psd-mx-corn-feed","fas-psd-mx-milk-fluid","fas-psd-mx-sorghum-feed","fas-psd-mx-soybean-meal-feed","us-drought-monitor-nebraska-d2-plus","us-drought-monitor-new-mexico-d2-plus","us-drought-monitor-oklahoma-d2-plus","us-drought-monitor-texas-d2-plus","fas-psd-us-corn-feed","fas-psd-us-milk-fluid","fas-psd-us-sorghum-feed","fas-psd-us-soybean-meal-feed","usda-esr-corn-net-sales","usda-esr-corn-weekly-exports","usda-esr-soybean-meal-net-sales","usda-esr-soybean-meal-weekly-exports","usda-nass-cattle-all-feedlot-cattle-2026-01-30","us-drought-monitor-southern-plains-d2-plus-forage-retention-impact","us-drought-monitor-colorado-d2-plus-forage-retention-impact","us-drought-monitor-nebraska-d2-plus-forage-retention-impact","us-drought-monitor-new-mexico-d2-plus-forage-retention-impact","us-drought-monitor-oklahoma-d2-plus-forage-retention-impact","usda-nass-livestock-slaughter-cattle-slaughter-2026-05-21-official-report-impact","usda-nass-cattle-on-feed-fed-cattle-marketings-2026-05-22-official-report-impact","usda-nass-crop-progress-pasture-good-excellent-2026-06-01-official-report-impact","usda-nass-crop-progress-pasture-poor-very-poor-2026-06-01-official-report-impact","usda-ers-feed-grains-corn-ending-stocks-feed-margin-impact","usda-wasde-mexico-corn-stocks-monthly-balance-impact","fas-psd-mx-cattle-balance-sheet-impact","fas-psd-mx-sorghum-feed-balance-sheet-impact","fas-psd-mx-soybean-meal-feed-balance-sheet-impact","usda-wasde-mexico-soymeal-stocks-monthly-balance-impact","usda-wasde-us-corn-stocks-monthly-balance-impact","usda-wasde-us-corn-price-monthly-balance-impact","usda-wasde-us-sorghum-feed-monthly-balance-impact","fas-psd-us-sorghum-feed-balance-sheet-impact","cftc-cot-live-cattle-hedge-margin-impact","open-meteo-water-demand-southern-plains-water-heat-impact","open-meteo-forecast-southern-plains-forward-forage-impact","cftc-cot-corn-hedge-margin-impact","fao-food-price-sugar-north-america-global-food-margin-impact","nasa-power-southern-plains-rainfall-baseline","usgs-water-southern-plains-30d-baseline","fao-newsroom-rss-strait-of-hormuz-time-running-out-to-avert-global-food-security-crisis-fao-warns-2026-05-26","google-news-rss-global-feed-trade-nato-to-beef-up-forces-assigned-to-defend-baltics-in-war-sources-say-reuters-2026-05-26","fao-newsroom-rss-strait-of-hormuz-conflict-threatens-global-food-prices-as-fao-warns-time-is-running--2026-05-20","fao-newsroom-rss-strait-of-hormuz-crisis-fertilizer-scarcity-will-affect-next-harvests-and-food-suppl-2026-05-07","agriland-rss-major-food-companies-lagging-on-methane-targets-report-2026-06-06","usda-ams-published-2073-2026-06-06","usda-ams-published-3150-2026-06-05","usda-ams-published-3156-2026-06-05","usda-ams-published-3495-2026-06-05","usda-ams-published-2875-2026-06-05","usda-ams-published-2871-2026-06-05","usda-ams-published-2870-2026-06-05","usda-ams-published-2825-2026-06-05","usda-ams-published-2829-2026-06-05","usda-ams-published-3239-2026-06-05","fao-newsroom-rss-fao-food-price-index-broadly-stable-in-may-even-as-cereal-quotations-increase-2026-06-05","google-news-rss-canada-cattle-feed-does-calm-cattle-handling-pay-off-in-the-feedlot-canadian-cattlemen-2026-06-05","reliefweb-agriculture-rss-world-fao-food-price-index-broadly-stable-in-may-even-as-cereal-quotations-increase-2026-06-05","google-news-rss-spanish-animal-health-los-futuros-del-ganado-caen-tras-caso-confirmado-de-gusano-barrenador-en-texas-ganad-2026-06-05","farmprogress-rss-adjusting-for-higher-costs-in-2026-2026-06-05","hay-pasture-forage","dairy-milk","currency-brl-usd","diesel-freight","corn-feedgrain","united-states","soybean-meal","drought-heat-water","fertilizer","port-border-access","tariffs-quotas-policy","texas-border"],"scenarioIds":["feed-cost-spike","crop-yield-shock","drought-shock","export-disruption","milk-margin-squeeze","fertilizer-energy-squeeze","geopolitical-shipping-shock","port-freight-shock"],"historicalDriverIds":["pasture-stress-to-sale-runs","crop-balance-to-feed-margin","export-pull-to-local-basis","heat-load-to-milk-gain","dairy-margin-to-beef-supply","credit-cost-to-retention","geopolitical-shock-to-feed-freight","positioning-to-hedge-margin"],"sourceGraphEdgeIds":["ams-price-to-sale-window","drought-to-retention","wasde-feed-balance-to-cattle-margin","nass-inventory-to-cycle","fas-trade-to-basis","ers-feed-grains-to-breakeven","nasa-weather-to-heat","export-sales-to-buyer-pull"],"score":4283},{"id":"playbook-brief-decision-north-america-water-forage","kind":"decision-brief","priority":"act","priorityLabel":"Act now","severity":"high","title":"North America: Water and forage","why":"202 evidence items across 27 source families. 52 % D2+ area in the latest U.S. Drought Monitor. D2+ is the official severe-drought footprint to read before assuming pasture, hay, and water pressure stay local.","action":"Turn weather into pasture budget, water checks, hay replacement, shade, and sale thresholds this week.","timing":"Watch severe drought footprint, seven-day rain, evapotranspiration, water flow, heat load, and hay demand.","sourceId":"us-drought-monitor","sourceName":"U.S. Drought Monitor","sourceUrl":"https://www.drought.gov/data-maps-tools/us-drought-monitor","confidence":83,"sectors":["beef","dairy","feed","crops","animal-health"],"evidenceIds":["us-drought-monitor-southern-plains-d2-plus","us-drought-monitor-conus-d2-plus","fas-psd-ca-milk-fluid","us-drought-monitor-colorado-d2-plus","us-drought-monitor-kansas-d2-plus","fas-psd-mx-milk-fluid","us-drought-monitor-nebraska-d2-plus","us-drought-monitor-new-mexico-d2-plus","us-drought-monitor-oklahoma-d2-plus","us-drought-monitor-texas-d2-plus","fas-psd-us-milk-fluid","usda-nass-cattle-all-feedlot-cattle-2026-01-30","usda-wasde-us-milk-price","usda-nass-cattle-on-feed-feedlot-inventory-2026-05-22","usda-nass-crop-progress-corn-emerged-2026-06-01","usda-nass-crop-progress-corn-good-excellent-2026-06-01","usda-nass-crop-progress-corn-planted-2026-06-01","usda-nass-cattle-on-feed-placements-2026-05-22","usda-nass-milk-production-milk-cows-2026-05-22","usda-nass-cattle-milk-cows-inventory-2026-01-30","usda-nass-milk-production-milk-per-cow-2026-05-22","usda-nass-milk-production-milk-production-2026-05-22","usda-wasde-us-milk-production","usda-nass-crop-progress-pasture-good-excellent-2026-06-01","us-drought-monitor-southern-plains-d2-plus-forage-retention-impact","us-drought-monitor-colorado-d2-plus-forage-retention-impact","us-drought-monitor-nebraska-d2-plus-forage-retention-impact","us-drought-monitor-new-mexico-d2-plus-forage-retention-impact","us-drought-monitor-oklahoma-d2-plus-forage-retention-impact","usda-nass-livestock-slaughter-cattle-slaughter-2026-05-21-official-report-impact","usda-nass-cattle-on-feed-fed-cattle-marketings-2026-05-22-official-report-impact","usda-nass-crop-progress-pasture-good-excellent-2026-06-01-official-report-impact","usda-nass-crop-progress-pasture-poor-very-poor-2026-06-01-official-report-impact","usda-ers-feed-grains-corn-ending-stocks-feed-margin-impact","usda-wasde-mexico-corn-stocks-monthly-balance-impact","fas-psd-mx-cattle-balance-sheet-impact","fas-psd-mx-sorghum-feed-balance-sheet-impact","fas-psd-mx-soybean-meal-feed-balance-sheet-impact","usda-wasde-mexico-soymeal-stocks-monthly-balance-impact","usda-wasde-us-corn-stocks-monthly-balance-impact","usda-wasde-us-corn-price-monthly-balance-impact","usda-wasde-us-sorghum-feed-monthly-balance-impact","fas-psd-us-sorghum-feed-balance-sheet-impact","open-meteo-water-demand-southern-plains-water-heat-impact","open-meteo-forecast-southern-plains-forward-forage-impact","cftc-cot-corn-hedge-margin-impact","world-bank-pink-sheet-crude-oil-north-america-commodity-margin-impact","world-bank-pink-sheet-dap-north-america-commodity-margin-impact","nasa-power-southern-plains-rainfall-baseline","usgs-water-southern-plains-30d-baseline","usda-ams-published-2073-2026-06-06","usda-ams-published-3150-2026-06-05","usda-ams-published-3156-2026-06-05","usda-ams-published-3495-2026-06-05","usda-ams-published-2875-2026-06-05","usda-ams-published-2871-2026-06-05","usda-ams-published-2870-2026-06-05","usda-ams-published-2825-2026-06-05","usda-ams-published-2829-2026-06-05","usda-ams-published-3239-2026-06-05","fao-newsroom-rss-fao-food-price-index-broadly-stable-in-may-even-as-cereal-quotations-increase-2026-06-05","google-news-rss-canada-cattle-feed-does-calm-cattle-handling-pay-off-in-the-feedlot-canadian-cattlemen-2026-06-05","google-news-rss-spanish-animal-health-los-futuros-del-ganado-caen-tras-caso-confirmado-de-gusano-barrenador-en-texas-ganad-2026-06-05","farmprogress-rss-adjusting-for-higher-costs-in-2026-2026-06-05","google-news-rss-latam-spanish-cattle-caso-de-gusano-barrenador-en-texas-eleva-los-precios-del-ganado-en-eu-latinus-2026-06-04","google-news-rss-latam-spanish-cattle-caso-del-gusano-barrenador-en-eu-sube-los-precios-del-ganado-y-pone-alerta-al-sector-2026-06-04","google-news-rss-spanish-animal-health-ee-uu-confirma-primer-caso-de-gusano-barrenador-del-ganado-en-casi-una-decada-yahoo--2026-06-04","google-news-rss-north-america-cattle-how-flesh-eating-screwworms-in-cattle-could-raise-us-beef-prices-reuters-2026-06-04","google-news-rss-spanish-animal-health-confirman-primer-caso-de-gusano-barrenador-en-eu-fue-hallado-en-ganado-de-texas-la-j-2026-06-04","google-news-rss-north-america-cattle-james-talarico-says-rising-beef-prices-hurt-texas-bottom-line-houston-public-media-2026-06-03","hay-pasture-forage","dairy-milk","currency-brl-usd","diesel-freight","corn-feedgrain","united-states","soybean-meal","drought-heat-water","fertilizer","port-border-access","tariffs-quotas-policy","texas-border"],"scenarioIds":["drought-shock","water-restriction-shock","heat-stress-milk-loss","feed-cost-spike","export-disruption","crop-yield-shock","milk-margin-squeeze","fertilizer-energy-squeeze"],"historicalDriverIds":["pasture-stress-to-sale-runs","crop-balance-to-feed-margin","export-pull-to-local-basis","heat-load-to-milk-gain","dairy-margin-to-beef-supply","credit-cost-to-retention","geopolitical-shock-to-feed-freight","positioning-to-hedge-margin"],"sourceGraphEdgeIds":["ams-price-to-sale-window","drought-to-retention","wasde-feed-balance-to-cattle-margin","nass-inventory-to-cycle","fas-trade-to-basis","ers-feed-grains-to-breakeven","nasa-weather-to-heat","export-sales-to-buyer-pull"],"score":4283}],"scenarios":[{"id":"drought-shock","name":"Drought tightens forage","sector":"feed","defaultIntensity":42,"producerDecision":"Check forage inventory, water, and the value of selling lighter cattle before everyone else is forced to."},{"id":"export-disruption","name":"Export or border disruption","sector":"beef","defaultIntensity":30,"producerDecision":"Do not assume local bids are stable when export channels or border rules move."},{"id":"feed-cost-spike","name":"Feed cost spike","sector":"feed","defaultIntensity":35,"producerDecision":"Recalculate whether the next gain period is still worth feeding."},{"id":"disease-alert","name":"Disease alert or movement hold","sector":"animal-health","defaultIntensity":28,"producerDecision":"Treat health status as a market signal before buying, moving, or selling cattle."},{"id":"crop-yield-shock","name":"Crop yield shock","sector":"crops","defaultIntensity":38,"producerDecision":"Decide whether to protect feed needs, price grain, adjust planting, or buy hay before local shortages are obvious."}],"historicalDrivers":[{"id":"pasture-stress-to-sale-runs","driver":"Pasture stress becomes sale pressure","lag":"Pasture stress usually hits feed buying first, sale runs second, and replacement prices last.","forwardWindow":"2-16 weeks","producerDecision":"Move from calendar-based selling to forage-days and feed-margin selling.","confidence":86},{"id":"crop-balance-to-feed-margin","driver":"Crop balance becomes feed margin","lag":"Acreage and crop condition lead production; production leads feed price; feed price leads cattle and milk margins.","forwardWindow":"1-18 months","producerDecision":"Use the crop balance to decide feed coverage, hay buying, grain pricing, and stocking rate.","confidence":84},{"id":"health-alert-to-market-access","driver":"Animal-health alerts become market-access friction","lag":"A disease notice can affect movement immediately, then trade access and buyer confidence over weeks or months.","forwardWindow":"Same day to 12 months","producerDecision":"Check health status before moving cattle, buying replacements, or signing export-sensitive commitments.","confidence":83},{"id":"export-pull-to-local-basis","driver":"Export pull changes local basis","lag":"Export sales lead shipments; shipments lead customs totals; customs totals confirm structural demand.","forwardWindow":"1-12 weeks","producerDecision":"Price cattle and crops with local basis plus destination exposure, not only the national headline.","confidence":82},{"id":"heat-load-to-milk-gain","driver":"Heat load becomes milk and weight-gain drag","lag":"Heat and humidity affect intake first, then milk, weight gain, conception, and sale timing.","forwardWindow":"Same day to 12 weeks","producerDecision":"Move heat mitigation and ration timing ahead of sale-weight or milk-output assumptions.","confidence":82}],"calendarItems":[{"id":"calendar-driver-credit-cost-to-retention","kind":"historical-driver","kindLabel":"Historical rule","window":"today","windowLabel":"Today","priority":"act","priorityLabel":"Act now","regionId":"north-america","sectors":["beef","dairy","feed","crops"],"title":"Credit cost changes retention and input timing","summary":"Interest and credit changes hit input prepay and replacements before they show up in herd-size data.","producerAction":"Run feed, replacement, and planting choices through a cash-flow calendar before chasing headline price.","checkBefore":"Review before closing a sale, moving animals, buying feed, or changing coverage today.","sourceId":"fred-ag-macro","sourceName":"FRED agriculture macro series","sourceUrl":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/docs/api/fred/","cadence":"Daily to monthly","updatePriority":null,"confidence":79,"severity":"high","evidenceIds":[],"scenarioIds":["fertilizer-energy-squeeze","credit-interest-squeeze"],"historicalDriverIds":["credit-cost-to-retention"],"sourceGraphEdgeIds":["fred-ag-macro-category-causal-edge","macro-fx-to-export-bids","world-bank-wdi-to-structural-supply","bls-inputs-to-feed-margin"],"score":3519},{"id":"calendar-impact-usda-nass-crop-progress-pasture-good-excellent-2026-06-01-official-report-impact","kind":"driver-impact","kindLabel":"Driver impact","window":"this-week","windowLabel":"This week","priority":"act","priorityLabel":"Act now","regionId":"north-america","sectors":["feed","crops","beef","dairy"],"title":"U.S. pasture good/excellent changes the official crop progress read","summary":"30 % in the 2026-06-01 USDA NASS Crop Progress; -12.0 points versus last year. This is an official supply, feed, dairy, or pasture signal to read before treating local prices as isolated.","producerAction":"Move this NASS read into the feed plan now: count forage days, price hay and grain, then compare selling lighter cattle against buying another gain period.","checkBefore":"Review before the next sale, input buy, or weekly report.","sourceId":"usda-nass","sourceName":"USDA NASS QuickStats and ESMIS reports","sourceUrl":"https://esmis.nal.usda.gov/","cadence":"Weekly, monthly, quarterly, annual","updatePriority":null,"confidence":91,"severity":"high","evidenceIds":["usda-nass-crop-progress-pasture-good-excellent-2026-06-01"],"scenarioIds":["drought-shock","feed-cost-spike"],"historicalDriverIds":["pasture-stress-to-sale-runs","crop-balance-to-feed-margin"],"sourceGraphEdgeIds":["nass-inventory-to-cycle","drought-to-retention","feed-energy-to-breakeven"],"score":3423},{"id":"calendar-impact-usda-nass-crop-progress-pasture-poor-very-poor-2026-06-01-official-report-impact","kind":"driver-impact","kindLabel":"Driver impact","window":"this-week","windowLabel":"This week","priority":"act","priorityLabel":"Act now","regionId":"north-america","sectors":["feed","crops","beef","dairy"],"title":"U.S. pasture poor/very poor changes the official crop progress read","summary":"42 % in the 2026-06-01 USDA NASS Crop Progress; 42.0% of selected-state pasture is poor or very poor. This is an official supply, feed, dairy, or pasture signal to read before treating local prices as isolated.","producerAction":"Move this NASS read into the feed plan now: count forage days, price hay and grain, then compare selling lighter cattle against buying another gain period.","checkBefore":"Review before the next sale, input buy, or weekly report.","sourceId":"usda-nass","sourceName":"USDA NASS QuickStats and ESMIS reports","sourceUrl":"https://esmis.nal.usda.gov/","cadence":"Weekly, monthly, quarterly, annual","updatePriority":null,"confidence":91,"severity":"high","evidenceIds":["usda-nass-crop-progress-pasture-poor-very-poor-2026-06-01"],"scenarioIds":["drought-shock","feed-cost-spike"],"historicalDriverIds":["pasture-stress-to-sale-runs","crop-balance-to-feed-margin"],"sourceGraphEdgeIds":["nass-inventory-to-cycle","drought-to-retention","feed-energy-to-breakeven"],"score":3423},{"id":"calendar-impact-us-drought-monitor-southern-plains-d2-plus-forage-retention-impact","kind":"driver-impact","kindLabel":"Driver impact","window":"this-week","windowLabel":"This week","priority":"act","priorityLabel":"Act now","regionId":"north-america","sectors":["beef","dairy","feed"],"title":"Southern Plains severe drought footprint changes forage and retention risk","summary":"52 % D2+ area in the latest U.S. Drought Monitor. D2+ is the official severe-drought footprint to read before assuming pasture, hay, and water pressure stay local.","producerAction":"Recount forage and hay inventory now, then compare selling lighter cattle against carrying them through a drought-priced gain period.","checkBefore":"Review before the next sale, input buy, or weekly report.","sourceId":"us-drought-monitor","sourceName":"U.S. Drought Monitor","sourceUrl":"https://www.drought.gov/data-maps-tools/us-drought-monitor","cadence":"Weekly","updatePriority":null,"confidence":92,"severity":"high","evidenceIds":["us-drought-monitor-southern-plains-d2-plus"],"scenarioIds":["drought-shock","feed-cost-spike"],"historicalDriverIds":["pasture-stress-to-sale-runs"],"sourceGraphEdgeIds":["drought-to-retention","open-meteo-forecast-to-forward-forage"],"score":3416}]},{"id":"operation-playbook-north-america-mixed-farm-en","operation":"mixed-farm","operationLabel":"Mixed farm","subtitle":"Livestock, feed, crop, water, disease, policy, and cash-flow risks in one view.","regionId":"north-america","headline":"North America: Sell or hold","currentRead":"323 evidence items across 32 source families. 52 % D2+ area in the latest U.S. Drought Monitor. D2+ is the official severe-drought footprint to read before assuming pasture, hay, and water pressure stay local.","topAction":"Compare local bid strength with feed, forage, health, and freight before holding cattle for more gain.","nextCheck":"Watch local price, slaughter/cull flow, yardings, drought footprint, and whether replacement cost is changing the real sale value.","riskLevel":"high","confidence":83,"sourceFamilies":[{"id":"us-drought-monitor","name":"U.S. Drought Monitor","category":"Weather","officialUrl":"https://www.drought.gov/data-maps-tools/us-drought-monitor","cadence":"Weekly"}],"evidenceCount":131,"decisionCount":3,"items":[{"id":"playbook-brief-decision-north-america-sell-hold","kind":"decision-brief","priority":"act","priorityLabel":"Act now","severity":"high","title":"North America: Sell or hold","why":"323 evidence items across 32 source families. 52 % D2+ area in the latest U.S. Drought Monitor. D2+ is the official severe-drought footprint to read before assuming pasture, hay, and water pressure stay local.","action":"Compare local bid strength with feed, forage, health, and freight before holding cattle for more gain.","timing":"Watch local price, slaughter/cull flow, yardings, drought footprint, and whether replacement cost is changing the real sale value.","sourceId":"us-drought-monitor","sourceName":"U.S. Drought 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D2+ is the official severe-drought footprint to read before assuming pasture, hay, and water pressure stay local.","action":"Recalculate breakeven, hay replacement, freight, and ration intensity before paying for more weight.","timing":"Watch corn and meal cover, pasture days, diesel/freight, and whether cattle price is keeping up with gain cost.","sourceId":"us-drought-monitor","sourceName":"U.S. Drought 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s":["ams-price-to-sale-window","drought-to-retention","wasde-feed-balance-to-cattle-margin","nass-inventory-to-cycle","fas-trade-to-basis","ers-feed-grains-to-breakeven","nasa-weather-to-heat","export-sales-to-buyer-pull"],"score":4283}],"scenarios":[{"id":"drought-shock","name":"Drought tightens forage","sector":"feed","defaultIntensity":42,"producerDecision":"Check forage inventory, water, and the value of selling lighter cattle before everyone else is forced to."},{"id":"export-disruption","name":"Export or border disruption","sector":"beef","defaultIntensity":30,"producerDecision":"Do not assume local bids are stable when export channels or border rules move."},{"id":"feed-cost-spike","name":"Feed cost spike","sector":"feed","defaultIntensity":35,"producerDecision":"Recalculate whether the next gain period is still worth feeding."},{"id":"disease-alert","name":"Disease alert or movement hold","sector":"animal-health","defaultIntensity":28,"producerDecision":"Treat health status as a market signal before buying, moving, or selling cattle."},{"id":"crop-yield-shock","name":"Crop yield shock","sector":"crops","defaultIntensity":38,"producerDecision":"Decide whether to protect feed needs, price grain, adjust planting, or buy hay before local shortages are obvious."}],"historicalDrivers":[{"id":"pasture-stress-to-sale-runs","driver":"Pasture stress becomes sale pressure","lag":"Pasture stress usually hits feed buying first, sale runs second, and replacement prices last.","forwardWindow":"2-16 weeks","producerDecision":"Move from calendar-based selling to forage-days and feed-margin selling.","confidence":86},{"id":"crop-balance-to-feed-margin","driver":"Crop balance becomes feed margin","lag":"Acreage and crop condition lead production; production leads feed price; feed price leads cattle and milk margins.","forwardWindow":"1-18 months","producerDecision":"Use the crop balance to decide feed coverage, hay buying, grain pricing, and stocking rate.","confidence":84},{"id":"health-alert-to-market-access","driver":"Animal-health alerts become market-access friction","lag":"A disease notice can affect movement immediately, then trade access and buyer confidence over weeks or months.","forwardWindow":"Same day to 12 months","producerDecision":"Check health status before moving cattle, buying replacements, or signing export-sensitive commitments.","confidence":83},{"id":"export-pull-to-local-basis","driver":"Export pull changes local basis","lag":"Export sales lead shipments; shipments lead customs totals; customs totals confirm structural demand.","forwardWindow":"1-12 weeks","producerDecision":"Price cattle and crops with local basis plus destination exposure, not only the national headline.","confidence":82},{"id":"heat-load-to-milk-gain","driver":"Heat load becomes milk and weight-gain drag","lag":"Heat and humidity affect intake first, then milk, weight gain, conception, and sale timing.","forwardWindow":"Same day to 12 weeks","producerDecision":"Move heat mitigation and ration timing ahead of sale-weight or milk-output assumptions.","confidence":82}],"calendarItems":[{"id":"calendar-driver-credit-cost-to-retention","kind":"historical-driver","kindLabel":"Historical rule","window":"today","windowLabel":"Today","priority":"act","priorityLabel":"Act now","regionId":"north-america","sectors":["beef","dairy","feed","crops"],"title":"Credit cost changes retention and input timing","summary":"Interest and credit changes hit input prepay and replacements before they show up in herd-size data.","producerAction":"Run feed, replacement, and planting choices through a cash-flow calendar before chasing headline price.","checkBefore":"Review before closing a sale, moving animals, buying feed, or changing coverage today.","sourceId":"fred-ag-macro","sourceName":"FRED agriculture macro series","sourceUrl":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/docs/api/fred/","cadence":"Daily to monthly","updatePriority":null,"confidence":79,"severity":"high","evidenceIds":[],"scenarioIds":["fertilizer-energy-squeeze","credit-interest-squeeze"],"historicalDriverIds":["credit-cost-to-retention"],"sourceGraphEdgeIds":["fred-ag-macro-category-causal-edge","macro-fx-to-export-bids","world-bank-wdi-to-structural-supply","bls-inputs-to-feed-margin"],"score":3519},{"id":"calendar-event-google-news-rss-global-feed-trade-screwworm-flies-add-to-cattle-ranchers-woes-the-new-york-times-2026-06-06","kind":"current-event","kindLabel":"Market event","window":"today","windowLabel":"Today","priority":"act","priorityLabel":"Act now","regionId":"north-america","sectors":["beef","animal-health","dairy"],"title":"Screwworm Flies Add to Cattle Ranchers’ Woes - The New York Times","summary":"Google News public search RSS published an animal-health item. Treat it as a movement, buyer-access, and biosecurity signal before it becomes a price headline.","producerAction":"Check movement, replacement purchases, and export-linked commitments before assuming normal buyer access.","checkBefore":"Review before closing a sale, moving animals, buying feed, or changing coverage today.","sourceId":"google-news-rss","sourceName":"Google News public search RSS","sourceUrl":"https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMihgFBVV95cUxPam5NTGN1NjhwVUl6QmJRRXpTUksxSXk3YW5uSXVWV1FKT2p4dVNCNzhMSEFRNnBSTk5vWWJzR3NjMmJUM2RJVnZpQVZLNF9DWUZ4V1VfTE9waU4xd0IxVnJHNm9malJsTGE1X0ZVckpjbHRHSDlESmN2cWZMNktHb2FDQzJNUQ?oc=5","cadence":"Near real time","updatePriority":null,"confidence":82,"severity":"high","evidenceIds":["google-news-rss-global-feed-trade-screwworm-flies-add-to-cattle-ranchers-woes-the-new-york-times-2026-06-06"],"scenarioIds":["disease-alert"],"historicalDriverIds":["export-pull-to-local-basis"],"sourceGraphEdgeIds":["google-news-rss-category-causal-edge","wahis-disease-to-movement"],"score":3514},{"id":"calendar-event-google-news-rss-animal-health-canada-bans-texas-cattle-over-flesh-eating-screwworm-outbreak-in-us-bbc-2026-06-06","kind":"current-event","kindLabel":"Market event","window":"today","windowLabel":"Today","priority":"act","priorityLabel":"Act now","regionId":"north-america","sectors":["beef","animal-health","dairy"],"title":"Canada bans Texas cattle over flesh-eating screwworm outbreak in US - BBC","summary":"Google News public search RSS published an animal-health item. Treat it as a movement, buyer-access, and biosecurity signal before it becomes a price headline.","producerAction":"Check movement, replacement purchases, and export-linked commitments before assuming normal buyer access.","checkBefore":"Review before closing a sale, moving animals, buying feed, or changing coverage today.","sourceId":"google-news-rss","sourceName":"Google News public search RSS","sourceUrl":"https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiWkFVX3lxTE02Q0NodGVFcGVBOVBROVVKWkF5NHhlZkV1X0puU3JrWHYxaEJlODFXZFNDczFYbURXdTJGQ3pqUWxORmFGYnl3Rll1OGhJYWdRa1VmSERGZGh0QQ?oc=5","cadence":"Near real time","updatePriority":null,"confidence":82,"severity":"high","evidenceIds":["google-news-rss-animal-health-canada-bans-texas-cattle-over-flesh-eating-screwworm-outbreak-in-us-bbc-2026-06-06"],"scenarioIds":["disease-alert"],"historicalDriverIds":["export-pull-to-local-basis"],"sourceGraphEdgeIds":["google-news-rss-category-causal-edge","wahis-disease-to-movement"],"score":3514},{"id":"calendar-event-google-news-rss-animal-health-us-plans-to-fight-flesh-eating-screwworm-outbreak-with-flies-and-dogs-bbc-2026-06-06","kind":"current-event","kindLabel":"Market event","window":"today","windowLabel":"Today","priority":"act","priorityLabel":"Act now","regionId":"north-america","sectors":["animal-health","beef","dairy"],"title":"US plans to fight flesh-eating screwworm outbreak with flies and dogs - BBC","summary":"Google News public search RSS published an animal-health item. Treat it as a movement, buyer-access, and biosecurity signal before it becomes a price headline.","producerAction":"Check movement, replacement purchases, and export-linked commitments before assuming normal buyer access.","checkBefore":"Review before closing a sale, moving animals, buying feed, or changing coverage today.","sourceId":"google-news-rss","sourceName":"Google News public search RSS","sourceUrl":"https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiWkFVX3lxTFBibTB3eS1FdHY1U2U3LThVVUgzNEZCb1ZPSW90cTVqZy1uaUxQMldUSTM5MWZHOV9KQjVOaU5jeVJybGJBN2pJanFiZ2ZTckFyZmZfYlY3b21QZw?oc=5","cadence":"Near real time","updatePriority":null,"confidence":82,"severity":"high","evidenceIds":["google-news-rss-animal-health-us-plans-to-fight-flesh-eating-screwworm-outbreak-with-flies-and-dogs-bbc-2026-06-06"],"scenarioIds":["disease-alert"],"historicalDriverIds":["export-pull-to-local-basis"],"sourceGraphEdgeIds":["google-news-rss-category-causal-edge","wahis-disease-to-movement"],"score":3514}]}],"citationText":"North America operation playbooks connects 12 actions to public sources, scenarios, and historical rules."}}