{"ok":true,"name":"Cattle Market Pulse scenario ensemble","description":"Region-filtered scenario ensemble that ranks cattle, dairy, feed, crop, weather, disease, trade, water, policy, and farm-input shocks by current evidence, scenario pressure, public sources, historical lead-lag patterns, and producer actions.","generatedAt":"2026-06-06T22:13:56.262Z","canonicalUrl":"https://cattleweightestimation.com/market-pulse/scenario-ensemble.json","query":{"region":"north-america","sector":"all","lang":"en","limit":1},"examples":["https://cattleweightestimation.com/market-pulse/scenario-ensemble.json?region=north-america&sector=beef&lang=en","https://cattleweightestimation.com/market-pulse/scenario-ensemble.json?region=latin-america&sector=feed&lang=es","https://cattleweightestimation.com/market-pulse/scenario-ensemble.json?region=latin-america&sector=dairy&lang=pt"],"ensemble":{"id":"scenario-ensemble:north-america:all:en","type":"scenario-ensemble","title":"North America: scenarios that matter now","subtitle":"Ranks shocks by current evidence, historical pressure, public sources, and producer actions.","locale":"en","regionId":"north-america","regionName":"North America","sector":"all","generatedAt":"2026-06-06T22:13:56.262Z","snapshotGeneratedAt":"2026-06-06T11:33:23.605Z","updateCadence":"daily","isAccessibleForFree":true,"canonicalDataUrl":"/market-pulse/scenario-ensemble.json?region=north-america&sector=all&lang=en","summary":{"scenarios":1,"totalScenarioModels":13,"severeCount":1,"watchCount":0,"opportunityCount":0,"evidenceItems":157,"sourceFamilies":10,"historicalDrivers":8,"sourceGraphEdges":22,"affectedDecisions":3,"scenarioPressureRows":13,"averageStressScore":4813},"topScenario":{"id":"feed-cost-spike","rank":1,"name":"Feed cost spike","sector":"feed","riskLevel":"severe","intensity":35,"defaultIntensity":35,"description":"Corn, hay, soybean meal, fuel, or freight costs rise faster than cattle value.","producerDecision":"Recalculate whether the next gain period is still worth feeding.","pressure":{"score":1378,"label":"Very hot","confidence":81,"priorRunDelta":6,"thirtyDayDelta":null,"ninetyDayDelta":null,"motion":"warming","producerRead":"Feed cost spike is warming versus the prior stored update. Current pressure uses 404 driver impacts, 79 watched reports, and 0 time signals before changing sale timing, feed coverage, health watch, or margin protection."},"evidenceCounts":{"events":32,"impacts":97,"temporalSignals":0,"causalPaths":28,"sourceFamilies":23,"historicalDrivers":8,"sourceGraphEdges":22,"decisionLenses":3},"stressOutputs":[{"label":"Feed breakeven pressure","unit":"%","baseline":34,"current":57,"easing":45,"severe":87,"currentDelta":23,"severeDelta":53,"direction":"higher-is-risk","read":"Risk rises versus baseline."},{"label":"Margin cushion","unit":"%","baseline":24,"current":8,"easing":17,"severe":0,"currentDelta":-16,"severeDelta":-24,"direction":"lower-is-risk","read":"Risk rises versus baseline."},{"label":"Freight sensitivity","unit":"%","baseline":18,"current":29,"easing":23,"severe":43,"currentDelta":11,"severeDelta":25,"direction":"higher-is-risk","read":"Risk rises versus baseline."}],"evidence":[{"id":"us-drought-monitor-southern-plains-d2-plus-forage-retention-impact","kind":"impact","title":"Southern Plains severe drought footprint changes forage and retention risk","detail":"Recount forage and hay inventory now, then compare selling lighter cattle against carrying them through a drought-priced gain period.","sourceId":"us-drought-monitor","sourceName":"U.S. Drought Monitor","sourceUrl":"https://www.drought.gov/data-maps-tools/us-drought-monitor","confidence":92,"date":"2026-06-06T11:33:23.605Z"},{"id":"us-drought-monitor-oklahoma-d2-plus-forage-retention-impact","kind":"impact","title":"Oklahoma severe drought footprint changes forage and retention risk","detail":"Recount forage and hay inventory now, then compare selling lighter cattle against carrying them through a drought-priced gain period.","sourceId":"us-drought-monitor","sourceName":"U.S. Drought Monitor","sourceUrl":"https://www.drought.gov/data-maps-tools/us-drought-monitor","confidence":91,"date":"2026-06-06T11:33:23.605Z"},{"id":"us-drought-monitor-nebraska-d2-plus-forage-retention-impact","kind":"impact","title":"Nebraska severe drought footprint changes forage and retention risk","detail":"Recount forage and hay inventory now, then compare selling lighter cattle against carrying them through a drought-priced gain period.","sourceId":"us-drought-monitor","sourceName":"U.S. Drought Monitor","sourceUrl":"https://www.drought.gov/data-maps-tools/us-drought-monitor","confidence":91,"date":"2026-06-06T11:33:23.605Z"},{"id":"us-drought-monitor-colorado-d2-plus-forage-retention-impact","kind":"impact","title":"Colorado severe drought footprint changes forage and retention risk","detail":"Recount forage and hay inventory now, then compare selling lighter cattle against carrying them through a drought-priced gain period.","sourceId":"us-drought-monitor","sourceName":"U.S. Drought Monitor","sourceUrl":"https://www.drought.gov/data-maps-tools/us-drought-monitor","confidence":91,"date":"2026-06-06T11:33:23.605Z"},{"id":"usda-nass-crop-progress-2026-06-01","kind":"event","title":"Crop Progress: Crop, pasture, and feed-condition progress","detail":"USDA NASS ESMIS published a feed, grain, or input item. Use it to reprice the next gain period and the feed coverage window.","sourceId":"usda-nass","sourceName":"USDA NASS ESMIS","sourceUrl":"https://esmis.nal.usda.gov/sites/default/release-files/795928/prog2226.txt","confidence":86,"date":"2026-06-01T12:00:00.000Z"},{"id":"usda-esr-weekly-soybean-meal-2026-05-28","kind":"event","title":"USDA export sales: Soybean Cake and Meal","detail":"USDA FAS Export Sales Reporting published a feed, grain, or input item. Use it to reprice the next gain period and the feed coverage window.","sourceId":"usda-esr","sourceName":"USDA FAS Export Sales Reporting","sourceUrl":"https://apps.fas.usda.gov/esrqs/StaticReports/WeeklyHighlightsReport.xml","confidence":86,"date":"2026-05-28T00:00:00.000Z"},{"id":"usda-nass-cattle-on-feed-2026-05-22","kind":"event","title":"Cattle on Feed: United States Cattle on Feed Up 2 Percent","detail":"USDA NASS ESMIS published an official report. Use it as a dated source fact and connect it to the regional decision surface.","sourceId":"usda-nass","sourceName":"USDA NASS ESMIS","sourceUrl":"https://esmis.nal.usda.gov/sites/default/release-files/795913/cofd0526.txt","confidence":86,"date":"2026-05-22T12:00:00.000Z"},{"id":"fao-newsroom-rss-strait-of-hormuz-time-running-out-to-avert-global-food-security-crisis-fao-warns-2026-05-26","kind":"event","title":"Strait of Hormuz: Time running out to avert global food security crisis, FAO warns","detail":"FAO Newsroom published a war, sanctions, or shipping-route item. Read it as a delivered feed, fertilizer, fuel, freight, and buyer-access signal.","sourceId":"fao-newsroom","sourceName":"FAO Newsroom","sourceUrl":"https://www.fao.org/newsroom/detail/strait-of-hormuz--time-running-out-to-avert-global-food-security-crisis--fao-warns/en","confidence":82,"date":"2026-05-26T12:00:00.000Z"},{"id":"path-north-america-event-fao-newsroom-rss-strait-of-hormuz-time-running-out-to-avert-global-food-security-cri","kind":"causal-path","title":"North America: Strait of Hormuz: Time running out to avert global food security crisis, FAO warns","detail":"Check delivered feed, fertilizer, fuel, freight, and route exposure before holding cattle longer or locking crop-input purchases.","sourceId":"fao-newsroom","sourceName":"FAO Newsroom","sourceUrl":"https://www.fao.org/newsroom/detail/strait-of-hormuz--time-running-out-to-avert-global-food-security-crisis--fao-warns/en","confidence":82,"date":"2026-05-26T12:00:00.000Z"},{"id":"path-north-america-event-fao-newsroom-rss-strait-of-hormuz-conflict-threatens-global-food-prices-as-fao-warns","kind":"causal-path","title":"North America: Strait of Hormuz conflict threatens global food prices as FAO warns time is running out","detail":"Check delivered feed, fertilizer, fuel, freight, and route exposure before holding cattle longer or locking crop-input purchases.","sourceId":"fao-newsroom","sourceName":"FAO Newsroom","sourceUrl":"https://www.fao.org/newsroom/detail/strait-of-hormuz-conflict-threatens-global-food-prices-as-fao-warns-time-is-running-out/en","confidence":82,"date":"2026-05-20T12:00:00.000Z"}],"sourceFamilies":[{"id":"usda-ams","name":"USDA AMS MyMarketNews","category":"Prices","officialUrl":"https://mymarketnews.ams.usda.gov/mymarketnews-api/faqs","cadence":"Daily and weekly","reliability":"Official"},{"id":"usda-nass","name":"USDA NASS QuickStats and ESMIS reports","category":"Inventory","officialUrl":"https://esmis.nal.usda.gov/","cadence":"Weekly, monthly, quarterly, annual","reliability":"Official"},{"id":"usda-ers-feed-grains","name":"USDA ERS Feed Grains Database","category":"Feed","officialUrl":"https://ers.usda.gov/data-products/feed-grains-database/documentation","cadence":"Monthly and annual","reliability":"Official"},{"id":"conab","name":"CONAB agriculture portal","category":"Feed","officialUrl":"https://portaldeinformacoes.conab.gov.br/oferta-e-demanda.html","cadence":"Weekly to monthly","reliability":"Official"},{"id":"mexico-siap","name":"Mexico SIAP livestock data","category":"Regional","officialUrl":"https://www.gob.mx/agricultura/dgsiap/acciones-y-programas/produccion-pecuaria","cadence":"Monthly and annual","reliability":"Official"},{"id":"world-bank-pink-sheet","name":"World Bank commodity prices","category":"Macro","officialUrl":"https://www.worldbank.org/en/research/commodity-markets","cadence":"Monthly","reliability":"Official"},{"id":"eia-fuel","name":"U.S. EIA fuel prices","category":"Feed","officialUrl":"https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/gasdiesel/","cadence":"Weekly","reliability":"Official"},{"id":"cftc-cot","name":"CFTC Commitments of Traders","category":"Futures","officialUrl":"https://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/index.htm","cadence":"Weekly","reliability":"Official"},{"id":"gdelt-global-news","name":"GDELT global event monitor","category":"Regional","officialUrl":"https://www.gdeltproject.org/","cadence":"Near real time","reliability":"Research institution"},{"id":"usda-esr","name":"USDA Export Sales Reporting","category":"Trade","officialUrl":"https://apps.fas.usda.gov/export-sales/esrd1.html","cadence":"Weekly","reliability":"Official"}],"historicalDrivers":[{"id":"pasture-stress-to-sale-runs","driver":"Pasture stress becomes sale pressure","lookbackWindow":"30-120 days","forwardWindow":"2-16 weeks","lag":"Pasture stress usually hits feed buying first, sale runs second, and replacement prices last.","leadingSignals":["Soil moisture drops below seasonal median","Pasture condition ratings deteriorate","Hay and supplement quotes firm before auction volume rises"],"forwardEffects":["More calves and cull cows move earlier","Replacement animals face discount risk in dry regions","Feed cost can erase the value of extra gain"],"producerDecision":"Move from calendar-based selling to forage-days and feed-margin selling.","confidence":86},{"id":"crop-balance-to-feed-margin","driver":"Crop balance becomes feed margin","lookbackWindow":"90 days to 5 years","forwardWindow":"1-18 months","lag":"Acreage and crop condition lead production; production leads feed price; feed price leads cattle and milk margins.","leadingSignals":["Acreage, crop progress, and soil moisture shift together","Balance-sheet revisions tighten ending stocks","Rail, freight, or port pressure widens local basis"],"forwardEffects":["Backgrounding and finishing margins compress","Dairy ration spend rises before cull flow changes","Crop producers may gain price opportunity while livestock producers face cost risk"],"producerDecision":"Use the crop balance to decide feed coverage, hay buying, grain pricing, and stocking rate.","confidence":84},{"id":"export-pull-to-local-basis","driver":"Export pull changes local basis","lookbackWindow":"4-52 weeks","forwardWindow":"1-12 weeks","lag":"Export sales lead shipments; shipments lead customs totals; customs totals confirm structural demand.","leadingSignals":["Weekly sales or attaché reports change before monthly trade files","Destination concentration rises","Currency makes local supply cheaper or dearer to importers"],"forwardEffects":["Processor bids widen or narrow by export access","Feed and crop basis shifts around ports and corridors","Sanitary or border events can erase the signal quickly"],"producerDecision":"Price cattle and crops with local basis plus destination exposure, not only the national headline.","confidence":82},{"id":"dairy-margin-to-beef-supply","driver":"Dairy margins become beef supply","lookbackWindow":"4-26 weeks","forwardWindow":"2-20 weeks","lag":"Milk price and feed cost hit dairy margins before cull cow flow and beef supply respond.","leadingSignals":["Milk-feed spread narrows","Dairy auction prices weaken","Feed and energy prices rise together"],"forwardEffects":["Cull cows enter beef supply","Replacement appetite weakens","Milk output can fall after ration cuts"],"producerDecision":"Reprice ration, cull timing, and replacement purchases before monthly milk checks settle.","confidence":81},{"id":"credit-cost-to-retention","driver":"Credit cost changes retention and input timing","lookbackWindow":"30 days to 5 years","forwardWindow":"1 month to 24 months","lag":"Interest and credit changes hit input prepay and replacements before they show up in herd-size data.","leadingSignals":["Policy rates, farm credit, or inflation move together","Replacement purchases slow even when cattle prices look attractive","Input prepay windows get shorter"],"forwardEffects":["Retained ownership becomes harder to finance","Crop input timing can shift acreage and feed supply","Dairy ration and replacement choices tighten"],"producerDecision":"Run feed, replacement, and planting choices through a cash-flow calendar before chasing headline price.","confidence":79},{"id":"geopolitical-shock-to-feed-freight","driver":"Geopolitical shocks become feed, freight, and basis risk","lookbackWindow":"Same day to 3 years","forwardWindow":"Same week to 12 months","lag":"Conflict, sanctions, or shipping-route stress can move fuel, fertilizer, grain, and freight before farmgate cattle or milk prices adjust.","leadingSignals":["Red Sea, Black Sea, canal, port, or border headlines mention grain, fertilizer, fuel, or livestock routes","Freight, fuel, fertilizer, or grain indexes move before delivered feed quotes reset","Destination or route risk weakens the translation from global price to local bid"],"forwardEffects":["Delivered feed and fertilizer become more expensive or less reliable","Local basis can diverge from headline futures or export values","Local feed substitution, earlier sale timing, or destination hedging becomes valuable"],"producerDecision":"Treat global conflict and shipping risk as a delivered-cost problem before changing sale timing, feed coverage, or crop-input purchases.","confidence":79},{"id":"positioning-to-hedge-margin","driver":"Futures positioning becomes hedge and margin pressure","lookbackWindow":"4-52 weeks","forwardWindow":"1-8 weeks","lag":"COT positioning shifts before many cash producers feel the basis move; the risk shows up later in hedge cost, feed coverage, and retained ownership.","leadingSignals":["Managed money exits long cattle exposure","Corn or soybean-meal shorts cover quickly","Open interest changes while cash bids lag"],"forwardEffects":["Hedge urgency rises before local bids fully reprice","Feed coverage becomes more valuable when feed shorts unwind","Retained ownership gets riskier when cattle longs liquidate"],"producerDecision":"Check COT before deciding to hold unhedged weight, delay feed coverage, or assume today’s basis will still be there next month.","confidence":78},{"id":"logistics-to-local-basis","driver":"Logistics shocks become local basis gaps","lookbackWindow":"7 days to 3 years","forwardWindow":"Same week to 9 months","lag":"Freight and port disruption can widen local basis before national price series register the stress.","leadingSignals":["Fuel, port, rail, or border news moves before farmgate averages","Delivered feed diverges from board or benchmark price","Destination prices stop translating to local bids"],"forwardEffects":["Cattle, hay, milk, grain, and fertilizer spreads widen by corridor","Local arbitrage opportunities can appear","Remote producers face discount risk even in strong headline markets"],"producerDecision":"Price the delivered destination, not the benchmark, before moving cattle, feed, milk, or crop volume.","confidence":78}],"affectedDecisions":[{"id":"sell-hold-or-hedge","question":"Does the next weight gain still pay after feed, freight, basis, and buyer risk?","producerAction":"Compare today’s bid against the cost and risk of carrying cattle through the next gain window.","refreshCadence":"Daily to weekly"},{"id":"feed-crop-margin","question":"Are corn, soy meal, hay, fertilizer, diesel, or crop balance changing the value of weight gain?","producerAction":"Reprice feed coverage and ration strategy before deciding to add more weight.","refreshCadence":"Daily to monthly"},{"id":"dairy-cull-margin","question":"Is milk margin changing ration spend, replacement appetite, or dairy-beef supply?","producerAction":"Reprice ration, culling, replacement, and dairy-beef timing together.","refreshCadence":"Weekly to monthly"}],"actionChain":[{"id":"feed-cost-spike:evidence","label":"Current evidence","title":"Southern Plains severe drought footprint changes forage and retention risk","detail":"Recount forage and hay inventory now, then compare selling lighter cattle against carrying them through a drought-priced gain period."},{"id":"feed-cost-spike:pressure","label":"Pressure","title":"Very hot (1378)","detail":"Corn, hay, soybean meal, fuel, or freight costs rise faster than cattle value."},{"id":"feed-cost-spike:history","label":"Historical pattern","title":"Pasture stress becomes sale pressure","detail":"30-120 days -> 2-16 weeks: Pasture stress usually hits feed buying first, sale runs second, and replacement prices last."},{"id":"feed-cost-spike:output","label":"Possible move","title":"Feed breakeven pressure: 57 %","detail":"Risk rises versus baseline."},{"id":"feed-cost-spike:action","label":"Action","title":"Recalculate whether the next gain period is still worth feeding.","detail":"Recalculate whether the next gain period is still worth feeding."}],"citationText":"Feed cost spike combines 157 evidence items, 23 sources, 8 historical patterns, and 3 affected decisions.","stressScore":4813},"scenarios":[{"id":"feed-cost-spike","rank":1,"name":"Feed cost spike","sector":"feed","riskLevel":"severe","intensity":35,"defaultIntensity":35,"description":"Corn, hay, soybean meal, fuel, or freight costs rise faster than cattle value.","producerDecision":"Recalculate whether the next gain period is still worth feeding.","pressure":{"score":1378,"label":"Very hot","confidence":81,"priorRunDelta":6,"thirtyDayDelta":null,"ninetyDayDelta":null,"motion":"warming","producerRead":"Feed cost spike is warming versus the prior stored update. Current pressure uses 404 driver impacts, 79 watched reports, and 0 time signals before changing sale timing, feed coverage, health watch, or margin protection."},"evidenceCounts":{"events":32,"impacts":97,"temporalSignals":0,"causalPaths":28,"sourceFamilies":23,"historicalDrivers":8,"sourceGraphEdges":22,"decisionLenses":3},"stressOutputs":[{"label":"Feed breakeven pressure","unit":"%","baseline":34,"current":57,"easing":45,"severe":87,"currentDelta":23,"severeDelta":53,"direction":"higher-is-risk","read":"Risk rises versus baseline."},{"label":"Margin cushion","unit":"%","baseline":24,"current":8,"easing":17,"severe":0,"currentDelta":-16,"severeDelta":-24,"direction":"lower-is-risk","read":"Risk rises versus baseline."},{"label":"Freight sensitivity","unit":"%","baseline":18,"current":29,"easing":23,"severe":43,"currentDelta":11,"severeDelta":25,"direction":"higher-is-risk","read":"Risk rises versus baseline."}],"evidence":[{"id":"us-drought-monitor-southern-plains-d2-plus-forage-retention-impact","kind":"impact","title":"Southern Plains severe drought footprint changes forage and retention risk","detail":"Recount forage and hay inventory now, then compare selling lighter cattle against carrying them through a drought-priced gain period.","sourceId":"us-drought-monitor","sourceName":"U.S. Drought Monitor","sourceUrl":"https://www.drought.gov/data-maps-tools/us-drought-monitor","confidence":92,"date":"2026-06-06T11:33:23.605Z"},{"id":"us-drought-monitor-oklahoma-d2-plus-forage-retention-impact","kind":"impact","title":"Oklahoma severe drought footprint changes forage and retention risk","detail":"Recount forage and hay inventory now, then compare selling lighter cattle against carrying them through a drought-priced gain period.","sourceId":"us-drought-monitor","sourceName":"U.S. Drought Monitor","sourceUrl":"https://www.drought.gov/data-maps-tools/us-drought-monitor","confidence":91,"date":"2026-06-06T11:33:23.605Z"},{"id":"us-drought-monitor-nebraska-d2-plus-forage-retention-impact","kind":"impact","title":"Nebraska severe drought footprint changes forage and retention risk","detail":"Recount forage and hay inventory now, then compare selling lighter cattle against carrying them through a drought-priced gain period.","sourceId":"us-drought-monitor","sourceName":"U.S. Drought Monitor","sourceUrl":"https://www.drought.gov/data-maps-tools/us-drought-monitor","confidence":91,"date":"2026-06-06T11:33:23.605Z"},{"id":"us-drought-monitor-colorado-d2-plus-forage-retention-impact","kind":"impact","title":"Colorado severe drought footprint changes forage and retention risk","detail":"Recount forage and hay inventory now, then compare selling lighter cattle against carrying them through a drought-priced gain period.","sourceId":"us-drought-monitor","sourceName":"U.S. Drought Monitor","sourceUrl":"https://www.drought.gov/data-maps-tools/us-drought-monitor","confidence":91,"date":"2026-06-06T11:33:23.605Z"},{"id":"usda-nass-crop-progress-2026-06-01","kind":"event","title":"Crop Progress: Crop, pasture, and feed-condition progress","detail":"USDA NASS ESMIS published a feed, grain, or input item. Use it to reprice the next gain period and the feed coverage window.","sourceId":"usda-nass","sourceName":"USDA NASS ESMIS","sourceUrl":"https://esmis.nal.usda.gov/sites/default/release-files/795928/prog2226.txt","confidence":86,"date":"2026-06-01T12:00:00.000Z"},{"id":"usda-esr-weekly-soybean-meal-2026-05-28","kind":"event","title":"USDA export sales: Soybean Cake and Meal","detail":"USDA FAS Export Sales Reporting published a feed, grain, or input item. Use it to reprice the next gain period and the feed coverage window.","sourceId":"usda-esr","sourceName":"USDA FAS Export Sales Reporting","sourceUrl":"https://apps.fas.usda.gov/esrqs/StaticReports/WeeklyHighlightsReport.xml","confidence":86,"date":"2026-05-28T00:00:00.000Z"},{"id":"usda-nass-cattle-on-feed-2026-05-22","kind":"event","title":"Cattle on Feed: United States Cattle on Feed Up 2 Percent","detail":"USDA NASS ESMIS published an official report. Use it as a dated source fact and connect it to the regional decision surface.","sourceId":"usda-nass","sourceName":"USDA NASS ESMIS","sourceUrl":"https://esmis.nal.usda.gov/sites/default/release-files/795913/cofd0526.txt","confidence":86,"date":"2026-05-22T12:00:00.000Z"},{"id":"fao-newsroom-rss-strait-of-hormuz-time-running-out-to-avert-global-food-security-crisis-fao-warns-2026-05-26","kind":"event","title":"Strait of Hormuz: Time running out to avert global food security crisis, FAO warns","detail":"FAO Newsroom published a war, sanctions, or shipping-route item. Read it as a delivered feed, fertilizer, fuel, freight, and buyer-access signal.","sourceId":"fao-newsroom","sourceName":"FAO Newsroom","sourceUrl":"https://www.fao.org/newsroom/detail/strait-of-hormuz--time-running-out-to-avert-global-food-security-crisis--fao-warns/en","confidence":82,"date":"2026-05-26T12:00:00.000Z"},{"id":"path-north-america-event-fao-newsroom-rss-strait-of-hormuz-time-running-out-to-avert-global-food-security-cri","kind":"causal-path","title":"North America: Strait of Hormuz: Time running out to avert global food security crisis, FAO warns","detail":"Check delivered feed, fertilizer, fuel, freight, and route exposure before holding cattle longer or locking crop-input purchases.","sourceId":"fao-newsroom","sourceName":"FAO Newsroom","sourceUrl":"https://www.fao.org/newsroom/detail/strait-of-hormuz--time-running-out-to-avert-global-food-security-crisis--fao-warns/en","confidence":82,"date":"2026-05-26T12:00:00.000Z"},{"id":"path-north-america-event-fao-newsroom-rss-strait-of-hormuz-conflict-threatens-global-food-prices-as-fao-warns","kind":"causal-path","title":"North America: Strait of Hormuz conflict threatens global food prices as FAO warns time is running out","detail":"Check delivered feed, fertilizer, fuel, freight, and route exposure before holding cattle longer or locking crop-input purchases.","sourceId":"fao-newsroom","sourceName":"FAO Newsroom","sourceUrl":"https://www.fao.org/newsroom/detail/strait-of-hormuz-conflict-threatens-global-food-prices-as-fao-warns-time-is-running-out/en","confidence":82,"date":"2026-05-20T12:00:00.000Z"}],"sourceFamilies":[{"id":"usda-ams","name":"USDA AMS MyMarketNews","category":"Prices","officialUrl":"https://mymarketnews.ams.usda.gov/mymarketnews-api/faqs","cadence":"Daily and weekly","reliability":"Official"},{"id":"usda-nass","name":"USDA NASS QuickStats and ESMIS reports","category":"Inventory","officialUrl":"https://esmis.nal.usda.gov/","cadence":"Weekly, monthly, quarterly, annual","reliability":"Official"},{"id":"usda-ers-feed-grains","name":"USDA ERS Feed Grains Database","category":"Feed","officialUrl":"https://ers.usda.gov/data-products/feed-grains-database/documentation","cadence":"Monthly and annual","reliability":"Official"},{"id":"conab","name":"CONAB agriculture portal","category":"Feed","officialUrl":"https://portaldeinformacoes.conab.gov.br/oferta-e-demanda.html","cadence":"Weekly to monthly","reliability":"Official"},{"id":"mexico-siap","name":"Mexico SIAP livestock data","category":"Regional","officialUrl":"https://www.gob.mx/agricultura/dgsiap/acciones-y-programas/produccion-pecuaria","cadence":"Monthly and annual","reliability":"Official"},{"id":"world-bank-pink-sheet","name":"World Bank commodity prices","category":"Macro","officialUrl":"https://www.worldbank.org/en/research/commodity-markets","cadence":"Monthly","reliability":"Official"},{"id":"eia-fuel","name":"U.S. EIA fuel prices","category":"Feed","officialUrl":"https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/gasdiesel/","cadence":"Weekly","reliability":"Official"},{"id":"cftc-cot","name":"CFTC Commitments of Traders","category":"Futures","officialUrl":"https://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/index.htm","cadence":"Weekly","reliability":"Official"},{"id":"gdelt-global-news","name":"GDELT global event monitor","category":"Regional","officialUrl":"https://www.gdeltproject.org/","cadence":"Near real time","reliability":"Research institution"},{"id":"usda-esr","name":"USDA Export Sales Reporting","category":"Trade","officialUrl":"https://apps.fas.usda.gov/export-sales/esrd1.html","cadence":"Weekly","reliability":"Official"}],"historicalDrivers":[{"id":"pasture-stress-to-sale-runs","driver":"Pasture stress becomes sale pressure","lookbackWindow":"30-120 days","forwardWindow":"2-16 weeks","lag":"Pasture stress usually hits feed buying first, sale runs second, and replacement prices last.","leadingSignals":["Soil moisture drops below seasonal median","Pasture condition ratings deteriorate","Hay and supplement quotes firm before auction volume rises"],"forwardEffects":["More calves and cull cows move earlier","Replacement animals face discount risk in dry regions","Feed cost can erase the value of extra gain"],"producerDecision":"Move from calendar-based selling to forage-days and feed-margin selling.","confidence":86},{"id":"crop-balance-to-feed-margin","driver":"Crop balance becomes feed margin","lookbackWindow":"90 days to 5 years","forwardWindow":"1-18 months","lag":"Acreage and crop condition lead production; production leads feed price; feed price leads cattle and milk margins.","leadingSignals":["Acreage, crop progress, and soil moisture shift together","Balance-sheet revisions tighten ending stocks","Rail, freight, or port pressure widens local basis"],"forwardEffects":["Backgrounding and finishing margins compress","Dairy ration spend rises before cull flow changes","Crop producers may gain price opportunity while livestock producers face cost risk"],"producerDecision":"Use the crop balance to decide feed coverage, hay buying, grain pricing, and stocking rate.","confidence":84},{"id":"export-pull-to-local-basis","driver":"Export pull changes local basis","lookbackWindow":"4-52 weeks","forwardWindow":"1-12 weeks","lag":"Export sales lead shipments; shipments lead customs totals; customs totals confirm structural demand.","leadingSignals":["Weekly sales or attaché reports change before monthly trade files","Destination concentration rises","Currency makes local supply cheaper or dearer to importers"],"forwardEffects":["Processor bids widen or narrow by export access","Feed and crop basis shifts around ports and corridors","Sanitary or border events can erase the signal quickly"],"producerDecision":"Price cattle and crops with local basis plus destination exposure, not only the national headline.","confidence":82},{"id":"dairy-margin-to-beef-supply","driver":"Dairy margins become beef supply","lookbackWindow":"4-26 weeks","forwardWindow":"2-20 weeks","lag":"Milk price and feed cost hit dairy margins before cull cow flow and beef supply respond.","leadingSignals":["Milk-feed spread narrows","Dairy auction prices weaken","Feed and energy prices rise together"],"forwardEffects":["Cull cows enter beef supply","Replacement appetite weakens","Milk output can fall after ration cuts"],"producerDecision":"Reprice ration, cull timing, and replacement purchases before monthly milk checks settle.","confidence":81},{"id":"credit-cost-to-retention","driver":"Credit cost changes retention and input timing","lookbackWindow":"30 days to 5 years","forwardWindow":"1 month to 24 months","lag":"Interest and credit changes hit input prepay and replacements before they show up in herd-size data.","leadingSignals":["Policy rates, farm credit, or inflation move together","Replacement purchases slow even when cattle prices look attractive","Input prepay windows get shorter"],"forwardEffects":["Retained ownership becomes harder to finance","Crop input timing can shift acreage and feed supply","Dairy ration and replacement choices tighten"],"producerDecision":"Run feed, replacement, and planting choices through a cash-flow calendar before chasing headline price.","confidence":79},{"id":"geopolitical-shock-to-feed-freight","driver":"Geopolitical shocks become feed, freight, and basis risk","lookbackWindow":"Same day to 3 years","forwardWindow":"Same week to 12 months","lag":"Conflict, sanctions, or shipping-route stress can move fuel, fertilizer, grain, and freight before farmgate cattle or milk prices adjust.","leadingSignals":["Red Sea, Black Sea, canal, port, or border headlines mention grain, fertilizer, fuel, or livestock routes","Freight, fuel, fertilizer, or grain indexes move before delivered feed quotes reset","Destination or route risk weakens the translation from global price to local bid"],"forwardEffects":["Delivered feed and fertilizer become more expensive or less reliable","Local basis can diverge from headline futures or export values","Local feed substitution, earlier sale timing, or destination hedging becomes valuable"],"producerDecision":"Treat global conflict and shipping risk as a delivered-cost problem before changing sale timing, feed coverage, or crop-input purchases.","confidence":79},{"id":"positioning-to-hedge-margin","driver":"Futures positioning becomes hedge and margin pressure","lookbackWindow":"4-52 weeks","forwardWindow":"1-8 weeks","lag":"COT positioning shifts before many cash producers feel the basis move; the risk shows up later in hedge cost, feed coverage, and retained ownership.","leadingSignals":["Managed money exits long cattle exposure","Corn or soybean-meal shorts cover quickly","Open interest changes while cash bids lag"],"forwardEffects":["Hedge urgency rises before local bids fully reprice","Feed coverage becomes more valuable when feed shorts unwind","Retained ownership gets riskier when cattle longs liquidate"],"producerDecision":"Check COT before deciding to hold unhedged weight, delay feed coverage, or assume today’s basis will still be there next month.","confidence":78},{"id":"logistics-to-local-basis","driver":"Logistics shocks become local basis gaps","lookbackWindow":"7 days to 3 years","forwardWindow":"Same week to 9 months","lag":"Freight and port disruption can widen local basis before national price series register the stress.","leadingSignals":["Fuel, port, rail, or border news moves before farmgate averages","Delivered feed diverges from board or benchmark price","Destination prices stop translating to local bids"],"forwardEffects":["Cattle, hay, milk, grain, and fertilizer spreads widen by corridor","Local arbitrage opportunities can appear","Remote producers face discount risk even in strong headline markets"],"producerDecision":"Price the delivered destination, not the benchmark, before moving cattle, feed, milk, or crop volume.","confidence":78}],"affectedDecisions":[{"id":"sell-hold-or-hedge","question":"Does the next weight gain still pay after feed, freight, basis, and buyer risk?","producerAction":"Compare today’s bid against the cost and risk of carrying cattle through the next gain window.","refreshCadence":"Daily to weekly"},{"id":"feed-crop-margin","question":"Are corn, soy meal, hay, fertilizer, diesel, or crop balance changing the value of weight gain?","producerAction":"Reprice feed coverage and ration strategy before deciding to add more weight.","refreshCadence":"Daily to monthly"},{"id":"dairy-cull-margin","question":"Is milk margin changing ration spend, replacement appetite, or dairy-beef supply?","producerAction":"Reprice ration, culling, replacement, and dairy-beef timing together.","refreshCadence":"Weekly to monthly"}],"actionChain":[{"id":"feed-cost-spike:evidence","label":"Current evidence","title":"Southern Plains severe drought footprint changes forage and retention risk","detail":"Recount forage and hay inventory now, then compare selling lighter cattle against carrying them through a drought-priced gain period."},{"id":"feed-cost-spike:pressure","label":"Pressure","title":"Very hot (1378)","detail":"Corn, hay, soybean meal, fuel, or freight costs rise faster than cattle value."},{"id":"feed-cost-spike:history","label":"Historical pattern","title":"Pasture stress becomes sale pressure","detail":"30-120 days -> 2-16 weeks: Pasture stress usually hits feed buying first, sale runs second, and replacement prices last."},{"id":"feed-cost-spike:output","label":"Possible move","title":"Feed breakeven pressure: 57 %","detail":"Risk rises versus baseline."},{"id":"feed-cost-spike:action","label":"Action","title":"Recalculate whether the next gain period is still worth feeding.","detail":"Recalculate whether the next gain period is still worth feeding."}],"citationText":"Feed cost spike combines 157 evidence items, 23 sources, 8 historical patterns, and 3 affected decisions.","stressScore":4813}],"scenarioMatrix":[{"scenarioId":"feed-cost-spike","scenarioName":"Feed cost spike","riskLevel":"severe","stressScore":4813,"evidenceItems":157,"sourceFamilies":23,"affectedDecisions":3,"currentMove":"Feed breakeven pressure: 57 %"}],"citationText":"Cattle Market Pulse Scenario Ensemble for North America ranks 1 scenarios with 157 evidence items, 10 sources, and 8 historical patterns."},"summary":{"scenarios":1,"totalScenarioModels":13,"severeCount":1,"watchCount":0,"opportunityCount":0,"evidenceItems":157,"sourceFamilies":10,"historicalDrivers":8,"sourceGraphEdges":22,"affectedDecisions":3,"scenarioPressureRows":13,"averageStressScore":4813}}