{"name":"Cattle Market Pulse scenario stress tests","description":"Filterable scenario stress tests for cattle, dairy, feed, crop, weather, disease, trade, water, policy, and farm-input risk. Each scenario links stress outputs to public evidence, historical drivers, source graph links, and producer actions.","generatedAt":"2026-06-06T22:15:17.718Z","snapshotGeneratedAt":"2026-06-06T11:33:23.605Z","snapshotWindow":{"startDate":"2026-05-28","endDate":"2026-06-03"},"updateCadence":"daily","isAccessibleForFree":true,"canonicalUrl":"https://cattleweightestimation.com/market-pulse/scenarios.json","filters":{"region":"all","sector":"all","scenario":"all","intensity":0,"lang":"en","limit":1},"summary":{"scenarios":1,"totalScenarioModels":13,"scenarioMemoryItems":13,"liveObservations":617,"marketEvents":189,"causalPaths":160},"queryExamples":["https://cattleweightestimation.com/market-pulse/scenarios.json?region=north-america&sector=beef&lang=en&intensity=55","https://cattleweightestimation.com/market-pulse/scenarios.json?region=latin-america&scenario=milk-margin-squeeze&lang=es&intensity=60","https://cattleweightestimation.com/market-pulse/scenarios.json?region=africa-asia&scenario=geopolitical-shipping-shock&lang=pt&intensity=70"],"scenarios":[{"id":"feed-cost-spike","name":"Feed cost spike","sector":"feed","region":"all","intensity":0,"defaultIntensity":35,"description":"Corn, hay, soybean meal, fuel, or freight costs rise faster than cattle value.","producerDecision":"Recalculate whether the next gain period is still worth feeding.","pressure":{"score":1378,"label":"Very hot","current":{"scenarioId":"feed-cost-spike","pressureScore":1378,"impactCount":404,"eventCount":79,"temporalSignalCount":0,"confidence":81},"baselines":[{"label":"previous-run","baselineGeneratedAt":"2026-06-06T11:24:58.487Z","elapsedDays":0.01,"pressureScore":1372,"absolute":6,"percent":0.4}],"producerRead":"Feed cost spike is warming versus the prior stored update. Current pressure uses 404 driver impacts, 79 watched reports, and 0 time signals before changing sale timing, feed coverage, health watch, or margin protection."},"stressOutputs":[{"label":"Feed breakeven pressure","baseline":34,"value":34,"delta":0,"unit":"%","perIntensityPoint":0.66,"direction":"higher-is-risk","read":"Signal does not increase risk versus baseline."},{"label":"Margin cushion","baseline":24,"value":24,"delta":0,"unit":"%","perIntensityPoint":-0.45,"direction":"lower-is-risk","read":"Signal does not increase risk versus baseline."},{"label":"Freight sensitivity","baseline":18,"value":18,"delta":0,"unit":"%","perIntensityPoint":0.31,"direction":"higher-is-risk","read":"Signal does not increase risk versus baseline."}],"evidenceCounts":{"events":79,"impacts":404,"temporalSignals":0,"causalPaths":121,"sourceFamilies":32},"sourceFamilies":[{"id":"usda-ams","name":"USDA AMS MyMarketNews","category":"Prices","officialUrl":"https://mymarketnews.ams.usda.gov/mymarketnews-api/faqs","cadence":"Daily and weekly","reliability":"Official","regions":["north-america"],"sectors":["beef","dairy","feed"]},{"id":"usda-nass","name":"USDA NASS QuickStats and ESMIS reports","category":"Inventory","officialUrl":"https://esmis.nal.usda.gov/","cadence":"Weekly, monthly, quarterly, annual","reliability":"Official","regions":["north-america"],"sectors":["beef","dairy","feed"]},{"id":"usda-ers-feed-grains","name":"USDA ERS Feed Grains Database","category":"Feed","officialUrl":"https://ers.usda.gov/data-products/feed-grains-database/documentation","cadence":"Monthly and annual","reliability":"Official","regions":["north-america"],"sectors":["feed","crops","beef","dairy"]},{"id":"conab","name":"CONAB agriculture portal","category":"Feed","officialUrl":"https://portaldeinformacoes.conab.gov.br/oferta-e-demanda.html","cadence":"Weekly to monthly","reliability":"Official","regions":["latin-america"],"sectors":["feed"]},{"id":"mexico-siap","name":"Mexico SIAP livestock data","category":"Regional","officialUrl":"https://www.gob.mx/agricultura/dgsiap/acciones-y-programas/produccion-pecuaria","cadence":"Monthly and annual","reliability":"Official","regions":["latin-america","north-america"],"sectors":["beef","dairy"]},{"id":"world-bank-pink-sheet","name":"World Bank commodity prices","category":"Macro","officialUrl":"https://www.worldbank.org/en/research/commodity-markets","cadence":"Monthly","reliability":"Official","regions":["north-america","latin-america","oceania","europe","africa-asia"],"sectors":["beef","dairy","feed"]},{"id":"eia-fuel","name":"U.S. EIA fuel prices","category":"Feed","officialUrl":"https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/gasdiesel/","cadence":"Weekly","reliability":"Official","regions":["north-america"],"sectors":["beef","dairy","feed","crops"]},{"id":"cftc-cot","name":"CFTC Commitments of Traders","category":"Futures","officialUrl":"https://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/index.htm","cadence":"Weekly","reliability":"Official","regions":["north-america"],"sectors":["beef","feed"]},{"id":"gdelt-global-news","name":"GDELT global event monitor","category":"Regional","officialUrl":"https://www.gdeltproject.org/","cadence":"Near real time","reliability":"Research institution","regions":["north-america","latin-america","oceania","europe","africa-asia"],"sectors":["beef","dairy","feed","animal-health","crops"]},{"id":"usda-esr","name":"USDA Export Sales Reporting","category":"Trade","officialUrl":"https://apps.fas.usda.gov/export-sales/esrd1.html","cadence":"Weekly","reliability":"Official","regions":["north-america","latin-america","africa-asia"],"sectors":["beef","feed","crops","dairy"]},{"id":"reliefweb-agriculture","name":"ReliefWeb agriculture and disaster reports","category":"Regional","officialUrl":"https://reliefweb.int/","cadence":"Daily and event-driven","reliability":"Official","regions":["north-america","latin-america","oceania","europe","africa-asia"],"sectors":["beef","dairy","feed","crops","animal-health"]},{"id":"fao-newsroom","name":"FAO Newsroom","category":"Regional","officialUrl":"https://www.fao.org/newsroom/en","cadence":"Daily to weekly","reliability":"Official","regions":["north-america","latin-america","oceania","europe","africa-asia"],"sectors":["beef","dairy","feed","animal-health","crops"]},{"id":"google-news-rss","name":"Google News public search RSS","category":"Regional","officialUrl":"https://news.google.com/rss","cadence":"Near real time","reliability":"Public media","regions":["north-america","latin-america","oceania","europe","africa-asia"],"sectors":["beef","dairy","feed","animal-health","crops"]},{"id":"farmprogress-rss","name":"Farm Progress RSS","category":"Regional","officialUrl":"https://www.farmprogress.com/rss.xml","cadence":"Daily","reliability":"Public media","regions":["north-america"],"sectors":["beef","dairy","feed","animal-health","crops"]},{"id":"beefcentral-rss","name":"Beef Central RSS","category":"Regional","officialUrl":"https://www.beefcentral.com/rss-feeds/","cadence":"Daily","reliability":"Public media","regions":["oceania","africa-asia","north-america"],"sectors":["beef","feed","animal-health","crops"]},{"id":"beefpoint-rss","name":"BeefPoint RSS","category":"Regional","officialUrl":"https://www.beefpoint.com.br/feed/","cadence":"Daily","reliability":"Public media","regions":["latin-america"],"sectors":["beef","feed","crops"]},{"id":"usda-latest-releases","name":"USDA latest releases RSS","category":"Regional","officialUrl":"https://www.usda.gov/rss/latest-releases.xml","cadence":"Daily to weekly","reliability":"Official","regions":["north-america"],"sectors":["beef","dairy","feed","animal-health","crops"]},{"id":"us-drought-monitor","name":"U.S. Drought Monitor","category":"Weather","officialUrl":"https://www.drought.gov/data-maps-tools/us-drought-monitor","cadence":"Weekly","reliability":"Official","regions":["north-america"],"sectors":["beef","dairy","feed"]}],"sourceGraph":[{"id":"drought-to-retention","sourceId":"us-drought-monitor","sourceName":"U.S. Drought Monitor","signal":"Drought class, weekly narrative, pasture stress","driver":"Forage pressure and early liquidation risk","affects":"Cow retention, hay demand, calf movement, and replacement price","producerDecision":"Compare forage inventory against the value of carrying cattle longer.","lag":"1-4 weeks","confidence":88,"regions":["north-america"],"sectors":["beef","dairy","feed"]},{"id":"nass-inventory-to-cycle","sourceId":"usda-nass","sourceName":"USDA NASS QuickStats and ESMIS reports","signal":"Inventory, placements, pasture, hay, crop data","driver":"Herd cycle, feeder supply, and feed availability","affects":"Replacement strategy, retained heifers, and forward feeder supply","producerDecision":"Decide whether scarce replacement animals are worth keeping or selling.","lag":"1 month to 1 year","confidence":86,"regions":["north-america"],"sectors":["beef","dairy","feed"]},{"id":"cepea-ibge-brazil-price","sourceId":"cepea-boi","sourceName":"CEPEA/ESALQ cattle indicators","signal":"Boi gordo, calf, corn, soybean indicators","driver":"Brazil pasture-fed margin and export-linked cattle bid","affects":"State-level sale timing, dry-season supplement, and farm-to-farm price trust","producerDecision":"Convert live price, exchange rate, and expected gain into a local sale window.","lag":"0-7 days","confidence":85,"regions":["latin-america"],"sectors":["beef","feed"]},{"id":"open-meteo-forecast-to-forward-forage","sourceId":"open-meteo-forecast","sourceName":"Open-Meteo global weather forecast","signal":"7-day precipitation and temperature forecast by geo node","driver":"Forward pasture, heat, water, and forage pressure","affects":"Sale timing, feed coverage, water checks, milk yield, weight gain, and crop-feed risk","producerDecision":"Use the next-week rain and heat forecast before moving cattle, buying hay, changing supplement, or holding weight.","lag":"0-14 days","confidence":78,"regions":["north-america","latin-america","oceania","europe","africa-asia"],"sectors":["beef","dairy","feed","crops"]},{"id":"cftc-positioning-to-hedge-feed-risk","sourceId":"cftc-cot","sourceName":"CFTC Commitments of Traders","signal":"Managed money, commercial, and open-interest positioning in live cattle, feeder cattle, corn, and soybean meal","driver":"Speculative positioning and commercial hedge pressure","affects":"Hedge timing, basis risk, feeder bids, feed coverage, and retained-ownership risk","producerDecision":"Use COT positioning as a weekly stress check before leaving cattle, corn, or soybean-meal exposure unprotected.","lag":"Same week to 8 weeks","confidence":80,"regions":["north-america"],"sectors":["beef","dairy","feed","crops"]},{"id":"eu-milk-margin-cull","sourceId":"eu-milk","sourceName":"EU Milk Market Observatory","signal":"Raw milk, butter, SMP, whey prices","driver":"Milk margin and cull cow flow","affects":"Cull timing, replacement rate, feed spend, and beef supply from dairy","producerDecision":"Update cull and feed decisions when milk solids stop paying for extra ration.","lag":"1-4 weeks","confidence":82,"regions":["europe"],"sectors":["dairy","feed"]},{"id":"feed-energy-to-breakeven","sourceId":"world-bank-pink-sheet","sourceName":"World Bank commodity prices","signal":"Beef, energy, fertilizer, and feed commodity prices","driver":"Feed, fertilizer, freight, and pasture input cost","affects":"Backgrounding breakeven, finishing margin, hay cost, and stocking decision","producerDecision":"Reprice the next 50 lb or 25 kg before buying feed or delaying sales.","lag":"1-6 weeks","confidence":80,"regions":["north-america","latin-america","oceania","europe","africa-asia"],"sectors":["feed","beef","dairy"]},{"id":"fao-food-price-to-farm-margin","sourceId":"fao-food-price","sourceName":"FAO food price indices","signal":"FAO meat, dairy, cereal, oil, sugar, and headline food price indices","driver":"Global food, feed, and protein price pressure","affects":"Export pull, milk margin, ration cost, crop rotation, food inflation, and local bid resilience","producerDecision":"Compare global food index direction with local cattle, milk, feed, and crop bids before treating a market move as local noise.","lag":"1-12 months","confidence":82,"regions":["north-america","latin-america","oceania","europe","africa-asia"],"sectors":["beef","dairy","feed","crops"]},{"id":"wasde-feed-balance-to-cattle-margin","sourceId":"usda-wasde","sourceName":"USDA WASDE historical data","signal":"Corn, soybean meal, hay, and dairy/feed balance sheets","driver":"Forward feed availability and ration cost","affects":"Backgrounding margin, finishing days, milk-feed spread, and crop planting incentives","producerDecision":"Use monthly balance-sheet revisions to decide whether to lock feed, sell lighter, or carry cattle longer.","lag":"1-12 months","confidence":87,"regions":["north-america","latin-america","oceania","europe","africa-asia"],"sectors":["feed","crops","beef","dairy"]},{"id":"ers-feed-grains-to-breakeven","sourceId":"usda-ers-feed-grains","sourceName":"USDA ERS Feed Grains Database","signal":"Feed grain supply, animal unit indexes, rail rates, and grain shipments","driver":"Feed breakeven and logistics pressure","affects":"Feeder bids, ration substitutions, hay demand, and feedlot entry weights","producerDecision":"Compare feed grain and transport trends before buying feeders or delaying sale dates.","lag":"2-8 weeks","confidence":84,"regions":["north-america"],"sectors":["feed","crops","beef","dairy"]}],"historicalDrivers":[{"id":"pasture-stress-to-sale-runs","driver":"Pasture stress becomes sale pressure","lookbackWindow":"30-120 days","forwardWindow":"2-16 weeks","lag":{"en":"Pasture stress usually hits feed buying first, sale runs second, and replacement prices last.","es":"El estrés de pasto suele mover primero la compra de alimento, luego las ventas y al final la reposición.","pt":"O estresse de pasto costuma mover primeiro a compra de ração, depois as vendas e por fim a reposição."},"leadingSignals":["Soil moisture drops below seasonal median","Pasture condition ratings deteriorate","Hay and supplement quotes firm before auction volume rises"],"forwardEffects":["More calves and cull cows move earlier","Replacement animals face discount risk in dry regions","Feed cost can erase the value of extra gain"],"producerDecision":"Move from calendar-based selling to forage-days and feed-margin selling.","confidence":86,"sourceIds":["us-drought-monitor","nasa-power","copernicus-cds","bom-climate","brazil-inmet","mexico-siap","gdelt-global-news"],"regions":["north-america","latin-america","oceania","europe","africa-asia"],"sectors":["beef","dairy","feed","crops"]},{"id":"export-pull-to-local-basis","driver":"Export pull changes local basis","lookbackWindow":"4-52 weeks","forwardWindow":"1-12 weeks","lag":{"en":"Export sales lead shipments; shipments lead customs totals; customs totals confirm structural demand.","es":"Las ventas de exportación adelantan embarques; los embarques adelantan aduana; aduana confirma demanda estructural.","pt":"Vendas de exportação antecipam embarques; embarques antecipam aduana; aduana confirma demanda estrutural."},"leadingSignals":["Weekly sales or attaché reports change before monthly trade files","Destination concentration rises","Currency makes local supply cheaper or dearer to importers"],"forwardEffects":["Processor bids widen or narrow by export access","Feed and crop basis shifts around ports and corridors","Sanitary or border events can erase the signal quickly"],"producerDecision":"Price cattle and crops with local basis plus destination exposure, not only the national headline.","confidence":82,"sourceIds":["usda-esr","usda-fas","un-comtrade","brazil-mapa-agrostat","comex-stat","mexico-siap","brazil-bcb-sgs","gdelt-global-news"],"regions":["north-america","latin-america","oceania","europe","africa-asia"],"sectors":["beef","dairy","feed","crops"]},{"id":"crop-balance-to-feed-margin","driver":"Crop balance becomes feed margin","lookbackWindow":"90 days to 5 years","forwardWindow":"1-18 months","lag":{"en":"Acreage and crop condition lead production; production leads feed price; feed price leads cattle and milk margins.","es":"Área y condición del cultivo adelantan producción; producción adelanta alimento; alimento adelanta márgenes ganaderos y lecheros.","pt":"Área e condição da cultura antecipam produção; produção antecipa ração; ração antecipa margens pecuárias e leiteiras."},"leadingSignals":["Acreage, crop progress, and soil moisture shift together","Balance-sheet revisions tighten ending stocks","Rail, freight, or port pressure widens local basis"],"forwardEffects":["Backgrounding and finishing margins compress","Dairy ration spend rises before cull flow changes","Crop producers may gain price opportunity while livestock producers face cost risk"],"producerDecision":"Use the crop balance to decide feed coverage, hay buying, grain pricing, and stocking rate.","confidence":84,"sourceIds":["usda-wasde","usda-nass","usda-ers-feed-grains","conab","comex-stat","mexico-siap","faostat","gdelt-global-news"],"regions":["north-america","latin-america","oceania","europe","africa-asia"],"sectors":["feed","crops","beef","dairy"]},{"id":"positioning-to-hedge-margin","driver":"Futures positioning becomes hedge and margin pressure","lookbackWindow":"4-52 weeks","forwardWindow":"1-8 weeks","lag":{"en":"COT positioning shifts before many cash producers feel the basis move; the risk shows up later in hedge cost, feed coverage, and retained ownership.","es":"COT cambia antes de que muchos productores vean moverse la base; luego aparece en costo de cobertura, alimento y propiedad retenida.","pt":"COT muda antes de muitos produtores sentirem a base; depois aparece em custo de hedge, cobertura de ração e propriedade retida."},"leadingSignals":["Managed money exits long cattle exposure","Corn or soybean-meal shorts cover quickly","Open interest changes while cash bids lag"],"forwardEffects":["Hedge urgency rises before local bids fully reprice","Feed coverage becomes more valuable when feed shorts unwind","Retained ownership gets riskier when cattle longs liquidate"],"producerDecision":"Check COT before deciding to hold unhedged weight, delay feed coverage, or assume today’s basis will still be there next month.","confidence":78,"sourceIds":["cftc-cot","cme-livestock","usda-ams","world-bank-pink-sheet"],"regions":["north-america"],"sectors":["beef","dairy","feed","crops"]},{"id":"dairy-margin-to-beef-supply","driver":"Dairy margins become beef supply","lookbackWindow":"4-26 weeks","forwardWindow":"2-20 weeks","lag":{"en":"Milk price and feed cost hit dairy margins before cull cow flow and beef supply respond.","es":"Precio de leche y alimento golpean el margen antes de que cambien descarte y oferta de carne.","pt":"Preço do leite e ração atingem a margem antes de mudar descarte e oferta de carne."},"leadingSignals":["Milk-feed spread narrows","Dairy auction prices weaken","Feed and energy prices rise together"],"forwardEffects":["Cull cows enter beef supply","Replacement appetite weakens","Milk output can fall after ration cuts"],"producerDecision":"Reprice ration, cull timing, and replacement purchases before monthly milk checks settle.","confidence":81,"sourceIds":["eu-milk","gdt-events","usda-ers-dairy","usda-ams","mexico-siap","world-bank-pink-sheet","ibge-sidra","brazil-bcb-sgs","gdelt-global-news"],"regions":["north-america","latin-america","oceania","europe","africa-asia"],"sectors":["dairy","beef","feed"]},{"id":"herd-concentration-to-basis","driver":"Regional herd concentration becomes basis pressure","lookbackWindow":"1-10 years","forwardWindow":"1 quarter to 2 years","lag":{"en":"Herd concentration changes local sale pressure slowly, but weather, freight, and export bids can pull that pressure into the next quarter.","es":"La concentración del hato cambia la presión local lentamente, pero clima, flete y exportación pueden adelantar el efecto al próximo trimestre.","pt":"A concentração do rebanho muda a pressão local lentamente, mas clima, frete e exportação podem puxar esse efeito para o próximo trimestre."},"leadingSignals":["State herd share rises in export-linked regions","Freight or pasture pressure diverges by state","Local cattle basis moves before national averages"],"forwardEffects":["Regional sale pressure can widen local discounts","Export-heavy states can pull cattle away from domestic buyers","Feed and crop corridors feel freight and pasture stress together"],"producerDecision":"Price cattle against state-level supply, freight, pasture, and export basis before trusting the national cattle headline.","confidence":80,"sourceIds":["ibge-sidra","cepea-boi","mexico-siap","brazil-bcb-sgs","comex-stat"],"regions":["latin-america"],"sectors":["beef","feed","crops"]},{"id":"credit-cost-to-retention","driver":"Credit cost changes retention and input timing","lookbackWindow":"30 days to 5 years","forwardWindow":"1 month to 24 months","lag":{"en":"Interest and credit changes hit input prepay and replacements before they show up in herd-size data.","es":"Interés y crédito golpean insumos y reposición antes de aparecer en el tamaño del hato.","pt":"Juros e crédito atingem insumos e reposição antes de aparecer no tamanho do rebanho."},"leadingSignals":["Policy rates, farm credit, or inflation move together","Replacement purchases slow even when cattle prices look attractive","Input prepay windows get shorter"],"forwardEffects":["Retained ownership becomes harder to finance","Crop input timing can shift acreage and feed supply","Dairy ration and replacement choices tighten"],"producerDecision":"Run feed, replacement, and planting choices through a cash-flow calendar before chasing headline price.","confidence":79,"sourceIds":["fred-ag-macro","imf-ifs","brazil-bcb-sgs","world-bank-wdi","bls-ag-inputs"],"regions":["north-america","latin-america","oceania","europe","africa-asia"],"sectors":["beef","dairy","feed","crops"]},{"id":"logistics-to-local-basis","driver":"Logistics shocks become local basis gaps","lookbackWindow":"7 days to 3 years","forwardWindow":"Same week to 9 months","lag":{"en":"Freight and port disruption can widen local basis before national price series register the stress.","es":"Flete y puertos pueden abrir base local antes de que el precio nacional lo refleje.","pt":"Frete e portos podem abrir base local antes do preço nacional refletir."},"leadingSignals":["Fuel, port, rail, or border news moves before farmgate averages","Delivered feed diverges from board or benchmark price","Destination prices stop translating to local bids"],"forwardEffects":["Cattle, hay, milk, grain, and fertilizer spreads widen by corridor","Local arbitrage opportunities can appear","Remote producers face discount risk even in strong headline markets"],"producerDecision":"Price the delivered destination, not the benchmark, before moving cattle, feed, milk, or crop volume.","confidence":78,"sourceIds":["eia-fuel","un-comtrade","brazil-mapa-agrostat","comex-stat","gdelt-global-news"],"regions":["north-america","latin-america","oceania","europe","africa-asia"],"sectors":["beef","dairy","feed","crops"]}],"decisionLenses":[{"id":"sell-hold-or-hedge","name":"Sell, hold, or hedge","question":"Does the next weight gain still pay after feed, freight, basis, and buyer risk?","producerAction":"Compare today’s bid against the cost and risk of carrying cattle through the next gain window."},{"id":"feed-crop-margin","name":"Feed and crop margin","question":"Are corn, soy meal, hay, fertilizer, diesel, or crop balance changing the value of weight gain?","producerAction":"Reprice feed coverage and ration strategy before deciding to add more weight."},{"id":"dairy-cull-margin","name":"Dairy margin and cull flow","question":"Is milk margin changing ration spend, replacement appetite, or dairy-beef supply?","producerAction":"Reprice ration, culling, replacement, and dairy-beef timing together."}],"decisionPaths":[{"id":"nass-inventory-to-cycle-decision-path","sourceId":"usda-nass","sourceName":"USDA NASS QuickStats and ESMIS reports","sourceSignal":"Inventory, placements, pasture, hay, crop data","driver":"Herd cycle, feeder supply, and feed availability","affects":"Replacement strategy, retained heifers, and forward feeder supply","producerDecision":"Decide whether scarce replacement animals are worth keeping or selling.","forwardWindow":"1-18 months","confidence":84,"regions":["north-america"],"sectors":["beef","dairy","feed"]},{"id":"cftc-positioning-to-hedge-feed-risk-decision-path","sourceId":"cftc-cot","sourceName":"CFTC Commitments of Traders","sourceSignal":"Managed money, commercial, and open-interest positioning in live cattle, feeder cattle, corn, and soybean meal","driver":"Speculative positioning and commercial hedge pressure","affects":"Hedge timing, basis risk, feeder bids, feed coverage, and retained-ownership risk","producerDecision":"Use COT positioning as a weekly stress check before leaving cattle, corn, or soybean-meal exposure unprotected.","forwardWindow":"1-8 weeks","confidence":79,"regions":["north-america"],"sectors":["beef","dairy","feed","crops"]},{"id":"ers-feed-grains-to-breakeven-decision-path","sourceId":"usda-ers-feed-grains","sourceName":"USDA ERS Feed Grains Database","sourceSignal":"Feed grain supply, animal unit indexes, rail rates, and grain shipments","driver":"Feed breakeven and logistics pressure","affects":"Feeder bids, ration substitutions, hay demand, and feedlot entry weights","producerDecision":"Compare feed grain and transport trends before buying feeders or delaying sale dates.","forwardWindow":"1-18 months","confidence":83,"regions":["north-america"],"sectors":["feed","crops","beef","dairy"]},{"id":"conab-category-causal-edge-decision-path","sourceId":"conab","sourceName":"CONAB agriculture portal","sourceSignal":"Brazil CONAB crop supply, demand, stock, production, and export balance","driver":"Crop balance changes feed-cost cover","affects":"Corn and soybean meal basis, supplement cost, crop selling, feedlot breakeven, pasture substitution, and retained weight","producerDecision":"Use CONAB stock-to-use, production, and export revisions before holding cattle for gain or leaving feed coverage open.","forwardWindow":"1-18 months","confidence":82,"regions":["latin-america"],"sectors":["feed","crops","beef","dairy"]},{"id":"faostat-category-causal-edge-decision-path","sourceId":"faostat","sourceName":"FAOSTAT","sourceSignal":"FAOSTAT livestock, milk, beef, and feed-crop production baselines","driver":"Structural production capacity sets the slow market baseline","affects":"Long-cycle cattle supply, milk-feed exposure, feed-crop availability, replacement value, and regional basis","producerDecision":"Use the structural baseline before treating a local price, feed, or replacement move as only short-term noise.","forwardWindow":"1-18 months","confidence":80,"regions":["north-america","latin-america","oceania","europe","africa-asia"],"sectors":["beef","dairy","feed","crops"]},{"id":"cme-livestock-category-causal-edge-decision-path","sourceId":"cme-livestock","sourceName":"CME livestock and grain markets","sourceSignal":"CME livestock and grain markets: futures curve, basis pressure, hedge timing","driver":"Forward price curve and speculative positioning","affects":"Hedge timing, basis risk, retained ownership, feed coverage, and financing needs","producerDecision":"Use futures as risk-transfer context, then verify local basis before changing physical commitments.","forwardWindow":"1-8 weeks","confidence":70,"regions":["north-america"],"sectors":["beef","feed"]}],"evidence":[{"id":"usda-nass-crop-progress-2026-06-01","kind":"event","title":"Crop Progress: Crop, pasture, and feed-condition progress","detail":"Latest Crop Progress report leads with Corn Planted - Selected States. The 18-state corn planting pace is 93%, up from 86% last week and near the 92% five-year average.","sourceId":"usda-nass","sourceName":"USDA NASS ESMIS","sourceUrl":"https://esmis.nal.usda.gov/sites/default/release-files/795928/prog2226.txt","date":"2026-06-01T12:00:00.000Z","confidence":86},{"id":"usda-esr-weekly-corn-2026-05-28","kind":"event","title":"USDA export sales: Corn","detail":"Net sales of 883,300 MT for 2025/2026 were down 13 percent from the previous week and 32 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases primarily for Japan (336,300 MT, including 114,200 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 80,900 MT), Mexico (243,900 MT, including decreases of 32,500 MT), South Korea (193,900 MT, including 65,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 100 MT), Colombia (77,700 MT, including 53,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), and Spain (57,800 MT, including 60,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 2,200 MT), were offset by reduc","sourceId":"usda-esr","sourceName":"USDA FAS Export Sales Reporting","sourceUrl":"https://apps.fas.usda.gov/esrqs/StaticReports/WeeklyHighlightsReport.xml","date":"2026-05-28T00:00:00.000Z","confidence":86},{"id":"usda-esr-weekly-soybean-meal-2026-05-28","kind":"event","title":"USDA export sales: Soybean Cake and Meal","detail":"Net sales of 169,300 MT for 2025/2026 were down 44 percent from the previous week and 53 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases primarily for Mexico (71,600 MT, including decreases of 100 MT), unknown destinations (40,500 MT), the Philippines (11,600 MT), Colombia (9,500 MT), and the United Kingdom (9,300 MT, including 9,500 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 200 MT), were offset by reductions for Vietnam (2,700 MT), Panama (2,200 MT), Nepal (1,100 MT), Guatemala (700 MT), and Jamaica (100 MT).","sourceId":"usda-esr","sourceName":"USDA FAS Export Sales Reporting","sourceUrl":"https://apps.fas.usda.gov/esrqs/StaticReports/WeeklyHighlightsReport.xml","date":"2026-05-28T00:00:00.000Z","confidence":86},{"id":"usda-nass-cattle-on-feed-2026-05-22","kind":"event","title":"Cattle on Feed: United States Cattle on Feed Up 2 Percent","detail":"Cattle and calves on feed for the slaughter market in the United States for feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head totaled 11.6 million head on May 1, 2026. The inventory was 2 percent above May 1, 2025.","sourceId":"usda-nass","sourceName":"USDA NASS ESMIS","sourceUrl":"https://esmis.nal.usda.gov/sites/default/release-files/795913/cofd0526.txt","date":"2026-05-22T12:00:00.000Z","confidence":86},{"id":"reliefweb-agriculture-rss-somalia-radio-ergo-weekly-feedback-report-issued-5-june-2026-2026-06-05","kind":"event","title":"Somalia: Radio Ergo Weekly Feedback Report, Issued: 5 June 2026","detail":"Public item selected because war, sanctions, ports, canals, or shipping routes can change delivered feed, fertilizer, fuel, freight, and buyer access: Somalia: Radio Ergo Weekly Feedback Report, Issued: 5 June 2026","sourceId":"reliefweb-agriculture","sourceName":"ReliefWeb agriculture and disaster reports","sourceUrl":"https://reliefweb.int/report/somalia/radio-ergo-weekly-feedback-report-issued-5-june-2026","date":"2026-06-05T09:03:29.000Z","confidence":82},{"id":"us-drought-monitor-southern-plains-d2-plus-forage-retention-impact","kind":"impact","title":"Southern Plains severe drought footprint changes forage and retention risk","detail":"52 % D2+ area in the latest U.S. Drought Monitor. D2+ is the official severe-drought footprint to read before assuming pasture, hay, and water pressure stay local.","sourceId":"us-drought-monitor","sourceName":"U.S. Drought Monitor","sourceUrl":"https://www.drought.gov/data-maps-tools/us-drought-monitor","date":null,"confidence":92},{"id":"us-drought-monitor-oklahoma-d2-plus-forage-retention-impact","kind":"impact","title":"Oklahoma severe drought footprint changes forage and retention risk","detail":"46 % D2+ area in the latest U.S. Drought Monitor. D2+ is the official severe-drought footprint to read before assuming pasture, hay, and water pressure stay local.","sourceId":"us-drought-monitor","sourceName":"U.S. Drought Monitor","sourceUrl":"https://www.drought.gov/data-maps-tools/us-drought-monitor","date":null,"confidence":91},{"id":"us-drought-monitor-nebraska-d2-plus-forage-retention-impact","kind":"impact","title":"Nebraska severe drought footprint changes forage and retention risk","detail":"75 % D2+ area in the latest U.S. Drought Monitor. D2+ is the official severe-drought footprint to read before assuming pasture, hay, and water pressure stay local.","sourceId":"us-drought-monitor","sourceName":"U.S. Drought Monitor","sourceUrl":"https://www.drought.gov/data-maps-tools/us-drought-monitor","date":null,"confidence":91},{"id":"us-drought-monitor-colorado-d2-plus-forage-retention-impact","kind":"impact","title":"Colorado severe drought footprint changes forage and retention risk","detail":"76 % D2+ area in the latest U.S. Drought Monitor. D2+ is the official severe-drought footprint to read before assuming pasture, hay, and water pressure stay local.","sourceId":"us-drought-monitor","sourceName":"U.S. Drought Monitor","sourceUrl":"https://www.drought.gov/data-maps-tools/us-drought-monitor","date":null,"confidence":91},{"id":"us-drought-monitor-new-mexico-d2-plus-forage-retention-impact","kind":"impact","title":"New Mexico severe drought footprint changes forage and retention risk","detail":"85 % D2+ area in the latest U.S. Drought Monitor. D2+ is the official severe-drought footprint to read before assuming pasture, hay, and water pressure stay local.","sourceId":"us-drought-monitor","sourceName":"U.S. Drought Monitor","sourceUrl":"https://www.drought.gov/data-maps-tools/us-drought-monitor","date":null,"confidence":91},{"id":"path-africa-asia-event-reliefweb-agriculture-rss-kenya-key-message-update-long-rains-ease-conditions-but-cr","kind":"causal-path","title":"Africa and Asia: Kenya - Key Message Update: Long rains ease conditions but Crisis (IPC Phase 3) to persist in pastoral areas, May - September 2026","detail":"Convert the signal into forage days, water checks, and a sale-or-hold threshold.","sourceId":"reliefweb-agriculture","sourceName":"ReliefWeb agriculture and disaster reports","sourceUrl":"https://reliefweb.int/report/kenya/kenya-key-message-update-long-rains-ease-conditions-crisis-ipc-phase-3-persist-pastoral-areas-may-september-2026","date":"2026-06-05T02:36:56.000Z","confidence":82},{"id":"path-africa-asia-event-reliefweb-agriculture-rss-somalia-radio-ergo-weekly-feedback-report-issued-5-june-20","kind":"causal-path","title":"Africa and Asia: Somalia: Radio Ergo Weekly Feedback Report, Issued: 5 June 2026","detail":"Check delivered feed, fertilizer, fuel, freight, and route exposure before holding cattle longer or locking crop-input purchases.","sourceId":"reliefweb-agriculture","sourceName":"ReliefWeb agriculture and disaster reports","sourceUrl":"https://reliefweb.int/report/somalia/radio-ergo-weekly-feedback-report-issued-5-june-2026","date":"2026-06-05T09:03:29.000Z","confidence":82}],"citationText":"Feed cost spike at intensity 0 uses 32 sources, 79 watched reports, 404 impacts, and 8 historical patterns."}]}