{"name":"Cattle Market Pulse shock watch","description":"Region-filtered cattle and farm shock monitor for trade, disease, weather, policy, logistics, feed, macro, and public-news events. Each shock links current public evidence to producer actions, scenarios, history, source families, and source graph edges.","generatedAt":"2026-06-06T23:05:30.572Z","snapshotGeneratedAt":"2026-06-06T11:33:23.605Z","snapshotWindow":{"startDate":"2026-05-28","endDate":"2026-06-03"},"updateCadence":"daily","isAccessibleForFree":true,"canonicalUrl":"https://cattleweightestimation.com/market-pulse/shock-watch.json","canonicalMarkdownUrl":"https://cattleweightestimation.com/market-pulse/shock-watch.md","filters":{"region":"north-america","regionName":"North America","sector":"all","lang":"en","limit":3},"summary":{"shocks":3,"highSeverity":3,"evidenceCount":44,"latestEvents":16,"sourceFamilies":9,"scenarios":5,"historicalDrivers":3,"sourceGraphEdges":13},"queryExamples":["https://cattleweightestimation.com/market-pulse/shock-watch.json?region=north-america&sector=beef&lang=en","https://cattleweightestimation.com/market-pulse/shock-watch.json?region=latin-america&sector=feed&lang=es","https://cattleweightestimation.com/market-pulse/shock-watch.json?region=latin-america&sector=dairy&lang=pt&limit=20"],"readableExamples":["https://cattleweightestimation.com/market-pulse/shock-watch.md?region=north-america&sector=beef&lang=en","https://cattleweightestimation.com/market-pulse/shock-watch.md?region=latin-america&sector=feed&lang=es","https://cattleweightestimation.com/market-pulse/shock-watch.md?region=latin-america&sector=dairy&lang=pt&limit=20"],"topShock":{"id":"shock-north-america-disease-disease-alert","regionId":"north-america","categoryKey":"disease","category":"Animal health","title":"North America Animal health shock radar","summary":"29 public items from GDELT Global Event Monitor, Google News public search RSS, Farm Progress, Beef Central, FAO Newsroom, USDA APHIS cluster around animal health. Latest: Screwworm border closure fuels beef boom in Mexico , gloom in Texas","producerDecision":"Do not move animals, buy replacements, or promise export-linked supply until movement and buyer-access risk are checked.","watchNext":"Track movement rules, border access, buyer eligibility, replacement purchases, and biosecurity before committing cattle flow.","scenarioRead":"Most connected scenario: Disease alert or movement hold. Use the cluster to decide whether that scenario is warming or cooling.","severity":"high","confidence":78,"score":3310,"evidenceCount":29,"latestPublishedAt":"2026-06-06T10:45:00.000Z","sectors":["beef","animal-health","dairy","feed","crops"],"sourceFamilies":[{"id":"gdelt-global-news","name":"GDELT global event monitor","category":"Regional","officialUrl":"https://www.gdeltproject.org/","cadence":"Near real time","coverage":"Global public news article stream for livestock, dairy, feed, crop, weather, disease, fuel, trade, and policy shocks","producerUse":"public event stream, trade shock, disease mention, weather disruption"},{"id":"google-news-rss","name":"Google News public search RSS","category":"Regional","officialUrl":"https://news.google.com/rss","cadence":"Near real time","coverage":"Public search RSS monitoring for cattle, dairy, feed, crop, weather, animal-health, trade, freight, and policy shocks across English, Spanish, and Portuguese queries","producerUse":"public news search, regional livestock alerts, trade disruption, feed input shock"},{"id":"farmprogress-rss","name":"Farm Progress RSS","category":"Regional","officialUrl":"https://www.farmprogress.com/rss.xml","cadence":"Daily","coverage":"U.S. farm, crop, livestock, weather, input, policy, and market news across regional farm publications","producerUse":"farm policy, crop weather, livestock markets, feed inputs"},{"id":"beefcentral-rss","name":"Beef Central RSS","category":"Regional","officialUrl":"https://www.beefcentral.com/rss-feeds/","cadence":"Daily","coverage":"Australia and Asia-Pacific cattle markets, feedgrain, live export, processing, production, biosecurity, and trade news","producerUse":"feedgrain, feeder cattle, live export, biosecurity"},{"id":"fao-newsroom","name":"FAO Newsroom","category":"Regional","officialUrl":"https://www.fao.org/newsroom/en","cadence":"Daily to weekly","coverage":"FAO public news and reports that can affect livestock, feed, food security, trade, disease, and rural production context","producerUse":"animal health report, food security, trade disruption, rural production"},{"id":"usda-aphis","name":"USDA APHIS reportable diseases","category":"Disease","officialUrl":"https://www.aphis.usda.gov/livestock-poultry-disease/surveillance/reportable-diseases","cadence":"Event-driven","coverage":"U.S. livestock disease surveillance, reportable diseases, and biosecurity notices","producerUse":"disease status, movement risk, biosecurity"}],"sourceGraph":[{"id":"gdelt-news-to-market-event-risk","sourceId":"gdelt-global-news","sourceName":"GDELT global event monitor","driver":"Early event awareness before official reports update","affects":"Buyer access, disease movement risk, export demand, feed input cost, weather pressure, and local sale timing","producerDecision":"Use public event signals as watch items, then confirm with official data before changing cattle, milk, feed, or crop commitments.","lag":"Same day to 8 weeks","confidence":72},{"id":"wahis-disease-to-movement","sourceId":"woah-wahis","sourceName":"WOAH WAHIS","driver":"Disease event and movement restriction risk","affects":"Border access, auction flow, mortality risk, and buyer confidence","producerDecision":"Check health status before moving cattle, buying replacements, or signing export-linked volume.","lag":"Same day to 2 weeks","confidence":89},{"id":"google-news-rss-category-causal-edge","sourceId":"google-news-rss","sourceName":"Google News public search RSS","driver":"Regional event, policy, and local-market context","affects":"Local prices, buyer behavior, public policy, logistics, input access, and producer confidence","producerDecision":"Use the regional source to localize national headlines before changing the farm plan.","lag":"Same day to 1 year","confidence":64},{"id":"farmprogress-rss-category-causal-edge","sourceId":"farmprogress-rss","sourceName":"Farm Progress RSS","driver":"Regional event, policy, and local-market context","affects":"Local prices, buyer behavior, public policy, logistics, input access, and producer confidence","producerDecision":"Use the regional source to localize national headlines before changing the farm plan.","lag":"Same day to 1 year","confidence":64},{"id":"beefcentral-rss-category-causal-edge","sourceId":"beefcentral-rss","sourceName":"Beef Central RSS","driver":"Regional event, policy, and local-market context","affects":"Local prices, buyer behavior, public policy, logistics, input access, and producer confidence","producerDecision":"Use the regional source to localize national headlines before changing the farm plan.","lag":"Same day to 1 year","confidence":64},{"id":"aphis-h5n1-to-dairy-movement","sourceId":"usda-aphis","sourceName":"USDA APHIS reportable diseases","driver":"Dairy cattle movement and biosecurity risk","affects":"Interstate movement, sale timing, replacement buying, milk logistics, and cull-cow flow","producerDecision":"Check APHIS guidance before moving lactating dairy cattle, buying replacements, or changing biosecurity routines.","lag":"Same day to 2 weeks","confidence":84}],"historicalDrivers":[{"id":"export-pull-to-local-basis","driver":"Export pull changes local basis","lookbackWindow":"4-52 weeks","forwardWindow":"1-12 weeks","lag":"Export sales lead shipments; shipments lead customs totals; customs totals confirm structural demand.","leadingSignals":["Weekly sales or attaché reports change before monthly trade files","Destination concentration rises","Currency makes local supply cheaper or dearer to importers"],"forwardEffects":["Processor bids widen or narrow by export access","Feed and crop basis shifts around ports and corridors","Sanitary or border events can erase the signal quickly"],"producerDecision":"Price cattle and crops with local basis plus destination exposure, not only the national headline.","confidence":82}],"scenarios":[{"id":"disease-alert","name":"Disease alert or movement hold","sector":"animal-health","defaultIntensity":28,"description":"Official animal health alerts can change movement, buyer confidence, mortality risk, and export access.","producerDecision":"Treat health status as a market signal before buying, moving, or selling cattle."}],"latestEvents":[{"id":"gdelt-global-news-internazionale-it-screwworm-border-closure-fuels-beef-boom-in-mexico-gloom-in-texas-2026-06-06","title":"Screwworm border closure fuels beef boom in Mexico , gloom in Texas","summary":"Public event-stream item selected because it may affect livestock movement, buyer access, or biosecurity: Screwworm border closure fuels beef boom in Mexico , gloom in Texas Prior public event carried forward because the live event stream did not complete in this update.","producerRead":"GDELT public event monitor published an animal-health item. Treat it as a movement, buyer-access, and biosecurity signal before it becomes a price headline.","producerDecision":"Check movement, replacement purchases, and export-linked commitments before assuming normal buyer access.","severity":"high","confidence":40,"publishedAt":"2026-06-06T10:45:00.000Z","sourceId":"gdelt-global-news","sourceName":"GDELT Global Event Monitor","sourceUrl":"https://www.internazionale.it/ultime-notizie-reuters/2026/06/06/screwworm-border-closure-fuels-beef-boom-in-mexico-gloom-in-texas","scenarioIds":["disease-alert"],"historicalDriverIds":["export-pull-to-local-basis"],"sourceGraphEdgeIds":["gdelt-news-to-market-event-risk","wahis-disease-to-movement"]},{"id":"google-news-rss-global-feed-trade-screwworm-flies-add-to-cattle-ranchers-woes-the-new-york-times-2026-06-06","title":"Screwworm Flies Add to Cattle Ranchers’ Woes - The New York Times","summary":"Public item selected because it can affect livestock movement, buyer access, and biosecurity: Screwworm Flies Add to Cattle Ranchers’ Woes - The New York Times","producerRead":"Google News public search RSS published an animal-health item. Treat it as a movement, buyer-access, and biosecurity signal before it becomes a price headline.","producerDecision":"Check movement, replacement purchases, and export-linked commitments before assuming normal buyer access.","severity":"high","confidence":82,"publishedAt":"2026-06-06T09:02:04.000Z","sourceId":"google-news-rss","sourceName":"Google News public search RSS","sourceUrl":"https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMihgFBVV95cUxPam5NTGN1NjhwVUl6QmJRRXpTUksxSXk3YW5uSXVWV1FKT2p4dVNCNzhMSEFRNnBSTk5vWWJzR3NjMmJUM2RJVnZpQVZLNF9DWUZ4V1VfTE9waU4xd0IxVnJHNm9malJsTGE1X0ZVckpjbHRHSDlESmN2cWZMNktHb2FDQzJNUQ?oc=5","scenarioIds":["disease-alert"],"historicalDriverIds":["export-pull-to-local-basis"],"sourceGraphEdgeIds":["google-news-rss-category-causal-edge","wahis-disease-to-movement"]},{"id":"google-news-rss-animal-health-canada-bans-texas-cattle-over-flesh-eating-screwworm-outbreak-in-us-bbc-2026-06-06","title":"Canada bans Texas cattle over flesh-eating screwworm outbreak in US - BBC","summary":"Public item selected because it can affect livestock movement, buyer access, and biosecurity: Canada bans Texas cattle over flesh-eating screwworm outbreak in US - BBC","producerRead":"Google News public search RSS published an animal-health item. Treat it as a movement, buyer-access, and biosecurity signal before it becomes a price headline.","producerDecision":"Check movement, replacement purchases, and export-linked commitments before assuming normal buyer access.","severity":"high","confidence":82,"publishedAt":"2026-06-06T04:22:25.000Z","sourceId":"google-news-rss","sourceName":"Google News public search RSS","sourceUrl":"https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiWkFVX3lxTE02Q0NodGVFcGVBOVBROVVKWkF5NHhlZkV1X0puU3JrWHYxaEJlODFXZFNDczFYbURXdTJGQ3pqUWxORmFGYnl3Rll1OGhJYWdRa1VmSERGZGh0QQ?oc=5","scenarioIds":["disease-alert"],"historicalDriverIds":["export-pull-to-local-basis"],"sourceGraphEdgeIds":["google-news-rss-category-causal-edge","wahis-disease-to-movement"]},{"id":"google-news-rss-animal-health-us-plans-to-fight-flesh-eating-screwworm-outbreak-with-flies-and-dogs-bbc-2026-06-06","title":"US plans to fight flesh-eating screwworm outbreak with flies and dogs - BBC","summary":"Public item selected because it can affect livestock movement, buyer access, and biosecurity: US plans to fight flesh-eating screwworm outbreak with flies and dogs - BBC","producerRead":"Google News public search RSS published an animal-health item. Treat it as a movement, buyer-access, and biosecurity signal before it becomes a price headline.","producerDecision":"Check movement, replacement purchases, and export-linked commitments before assuming normal buyer access.","severity":"high","confidence":82,"publishedAt":"2026-06-06T01:55:03.000Z","sourceId":"google-news-rss","sourceName":"Google News public search RSS","sourceUrl":"https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiWkFVX3lxTFBibTB3eS1FdHY1U2U3LThVVUgzNEZCb1ZPSW90cTVqZy1uaUxQMldUSTM5MWZHOV9KQjVOaU5jeVJybGJBN2pJanFiZ2ZTckFyZmZfYlY3b21QZw?oc=5","scenarioIds":["disease-alert"],"historicalDriverIds":["export-pull-to-local-basis"],"sourceGraphEdgeIds":["google-news-rss-category-causal-edge","wahis-disease-to-movement"]},{"id":"google-news-rss-animal-health-first-u-s-screwworm-case-since-1960s-prompts-texas-emergency-response-the-new-york-t-2026-06-06","title":"First U.S. Screwworm Case Since 1960s Prompts Texas Emergency Response - The New York Times","summary":"Public item selected because it can affect livestock movement, buyer access, and biosecurity: First U.S. Screwworm Case Since 1960s Prompts Texas Emergency Response - The New York Times","producerRead":"Google News public search RSS published an animal-health item. Treat it as a movement, buyer-access, and biosecurity signal before it becomes a price headline.","producerDecision":"Check movement, replacement purchases, and export-linked commitments before assuming normal buyer access.","severity":"high","confidence":82,"publishedAt":"2026-06-06T01:04:30.000Z","sourceId":"google-news-rss","sourceName":"Google News public search RSS","sourceUrl":"https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMinwFBVV95cUxOZzFyS0RJWmwzYlJlUXVGTk5FUGVVTkZ3SFZnaE1vUmZ5eFZFVUtDZVUzNlNFZ3RQcV9iUnBxanNQMjRsUTZNSlUtZEw3Z3hRbE02bk16amQ2cjV0SV9oSGFGX3RzT0lFUXltYll5LTlkQ0VuMC1HWXV3QUVZVUhSWU1PNzR5Y3dRUzNXVVFYNzh3TGRlbWlVLVluUGVlaUE?oc=5","scenarioIds":["disease-alert"],"historicalDriverIds":["export-pull-to-local-basis"],"sourceGraphEdgeIds":["google-news-rss-category-causal-edge","wahis-disease-to-movement"]},{"id":"google-news-rss-animal-health-texas-ranchers-on-edge-after-screwworm-parasite-detected-in-calf-reuters-2026-06-05","title":"Texas ranchers on edge after screwworm parasite detected in calf - Reuters","summary":"Public item selected because it can affect livestock movement, buyer access, and biosecurity: Texas ranchers on edge after screwworm parasite detected in calf - Reuters","producerRead":"Google News public search RSS published an animal-health item. Treat it as a movement, buyer-access, and biosecurity signal before it becomes a price headline.","producerDecision":"Check movement, replacement purchases, and export-linked commitments before assuming normal buyer access.","severity":"high","confidence":82,"publishedAt":"2026-06-05T21:58:11.000Z","sourceId":"google-news-rss","sourceName":"Google News public search RSS","sourceUrl":"https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiygFBVV95cUxQYWoyX0Yzc1NVbTI3YmZiRkUyUC1McjZRa3NVaElfN2lXd1RFaVd3QXhUZDVGUFB3bHFPMjg1cTJiRXlhRUNUaE5ad0tXLXl3QW4wcmpraGFaR2FnVE1SSmVBUktITHQ5VnU0UlBaenAxXzNobTI2ODd4bWZZYkdIQlM2emdtVWpJdUd3TGFPNF9EaXJwd0U3djQyM0ZHanVZaVNTS3R0QmpVdDFGcXVPc3kwdFJpUHdPSU52SW56bzVmZkNjZk1hckJR?oc=5","scenarioIds":["disease-alert"],"historicalDriverIds":["export-pull-to-local-basis"],"sourceGraphEdgeIds":["google-news-rss-category-causal-edge","wahis-disease-to-movement"]}],"citationText":"North America Animal health shock radar combines 29 public evidence items, 6 source families, and 1 scenarios for North America."},"shocks":[{"id":"shock-north-america-disease-disease-alert","regionId":"north-america","categoryKey":"disease","category":"Animal health","title":"North America Animal health shock radar","summary":"29 public items from GDELT Global Event Monitor, Google News public search RSS, Farm Progress, Beef Central, FAO Newsroom, USDA APHIS cluster around animal health. Latest: Screwworm border closure fuels beef boom in Mexico , gloom in Texas","producerDecision":"Do not move animals, buy replacements, or promise export-linked supply until movement and buyer-access risk are checked.","watchNext":"Track movement rules, border access, buyer eligibility, replacement purchases, and biosecurity before committing cattle flow.","scenarioRead":"Most connected scenario: Disease alert or movement hold. Use the cluster to decide whether that scenario is warming or cooling.","severity":"high","confidence":78,"score":3310,"evidenceCount":29,"latestPublishedAt":"2026-06-06T10:45:00.000Z","sectors":["beef","animal-health","dairy","feed","crops"],"sourceFamilies":[{"id":"gdelt-global-news","name":"GDELT global event monitor","category":"Regional","officialUrl":"https://www.gdeltproject.org/","cadence":"Near real time","coverage":"Global public news article stream for livestock, dairy, feed, crop, weather, disease, fuel, trade, and policy shocks","producerUse":"public event stream, trade shock, disease mention, weather disruption"},{"id":"google-news-rss","name":"Google News public search RSS","category":"Regional","officialUrl":"https://news.google.com/rss","cadence":"Near real time","coverage":"Public search RSS monitoring for cattle, dairy, feed, crop, weather, animal-health, trade, freight, and policy shocks across English, Spanish, and Portuguese queries","producerUse":"public news search, regional livestock alerts, trade disruption, feed input shock"},{"id":"farmprogress-rss","name":"Farm Progress RSS","category":"Regional","officialUrl":"https://www.farmprogress.com/rss.xml","cadence":"Daily","coverage":"U.S. farm, crop, livestock, weather, input, policy, and market news across regional farm publications","producerUse":"farm policy, crop weather, livestock markets, feed inputs"},{"id":"beefcentral-rss","name":"Beef Central RSS","category":"Regional","officialUrl":"https://www.beefcentral.com/rss-feeds/","cadence":"Daily","coverage":"Australia and Asia-Pacific cattle markets, feedgrain, live export, processing, production, biosecurity, and trade news","producerUse":"feedgrain, feeder cattle, live export, biosecurity"},{"id":"fao-newsroom","name":"FAO Newsroom","category":"Regional","officialUrl":"https://www.fao.org/newsroom/en","cadence":"Daily to weekly","coverage":"FAO public news and reports that can affect livestock, feed, food security, trade, disease, and rural production context","producerUse":"animal health report, food security, trade disruption, rural production"},{"id":"usda-aphis","name":"USDA APHIS reportable diseases","category":"Disease","officialUrl":"https://www.aphis.usda.gov/livestock-poultry-disease/surveillance/reportable-diseases","cadence":"Event-driven","coverage":"U.S. livestock disease surveillance, reportable diseases, and biosecurity notices","producerUse":"disease status, movement risk, biosecurity"}],"sourceGraph":[{"id":"gdelt-news-to-market-event-risk","sourceId":"gdelt-global-news","sourceName":"GDELT global event monitor","driver":"Early event awareness before official reports update","affects":"Buyer access, disease movement risk, export demand, feed input cost, weather pressure, and local sale timing","producerDecision":"Use public event signals as watch items, then confirm with official data before changing cattle, milk, feed, or crop commitments.","lag":"Same day to 8 weeks","confidence":72},{"id":"wahis-disease-to-movement","sourceId":"woah-wahis","sourceName":"WOAH WAHIS","driver":"Disease event and movement restriction risk","affects":"Border access, auction flow, mortality risk, and buyer confidence","producerDecision":"Check health status before moving cattle, buying replacements, or signing export-linked volume.","lag":"Same day to 2 weeks","confidence":89},{"id":"google-news-rss-category-causal-edge","sourceId":"google-news-rss","sourceName":"Google News public search RSS","driver":"Regional event, policy, and local-market context","affects":"Local prices, buyer behavior, public policy, logistics, input access, and producer confidence","producerDecision":"Use the regional source to localize national headlines before changing the farm plan.","lag":"Same day to 1 year","confidence":64},{"id":"farmprogress-rss-category-causal-edge","sourceId":"farmprogress-rss","sourceName":"Farm Progress RSS","driver":"Regional event, policy, and local-market context","affects":"Local prices, buyer behavior, public policy, logistics, input access, and producer confidence","producerDecision":"Use the regional source to localize national headlines before changing the farm plan.","lag":"Same day to 1 year","confidence":64},{"id":"beefcentral-rss-category-causal-edge","sourceId":"beefcentral-rss","sourceName":"Beef Central RSS","driver":"Regional event, policy, and local-market context","affects":"Local prices, buyer behavior, public policy, logistics, input access, and producer confidence","producerDecision":"Use the regional source to localize national headlines before changing the farm plan.","lag":"Same day to 1 year","confidence":64},{"id":"aphis-h5n1-to-dairy-movement","sourceId":"usda-aphis","sourceName":"USDA APHIS reportable diseases","driver":"Dairy cattle movement and biosecurity risk","affects":"Interstate movement, sale timing, replacement buying, milk logistics, and cull-cow flow","producerDecision":"Check APHIS guidance before moving lactating dairy cattle, buying replacements, or changing biosecurity routines.","lag":"Same day to 2 weeks","confidence":84}],"historicalDrivers":[{"id":"export-pull-to-local-basis","driver":"Export pull changes local basis","lookbackWindow":"4-52 weeks","forwardWindow":"1-12 weeks","lag":"Export sales lead shipments; shipments lead customs totals; customs totals confirm structural demand.","leadingSignals":["Weekly sales or attaché reports change before monthly trade files","Destination concentration rises","Currency makes local supply cheaper or dearer to importers"],"forwardEffects":["Processor bids widen or narrow by export access","Feed and crop basis shifts around ports and corridors","Sanitary or border events can erase the signal quickly"],"producerDecision":"Price cattle and crops with local basis plus destination exposure, not only the national headline.","confidence":82}],"scenarios":[{"id":"disease-alert","name":"Disease alert or movement hold","sector":"animal-health","defaultIntensity":28,"description":"Official animal health alerts can change movement, buyer confidence, mortality risk, and export access.","producerDecision":"Treat health status as a market signal before buying, moving, or selling cattle."}],"latestEvents":[{"id":"gdelt-global-news-internazionale-it-screwworm-border-closure-fuels-beef-boom-in-mexico-gloom-in-texas-2026-06-06","title":"Screwworm border closure fuels beef boom in Mexico , gloom in Texas","summary":"Public event-stream item selected because it may affect livestock movement, buyer access, or biosecurity: Screwworm border closure fuels beef boom in Mexico , gloom in Texas Prior public event carried forward because the live event stream did not complete in this update.","producerRead":"GDELT public event monitor published an animal-health item. Treat it as a movement, buyer-access, and biosecurity signal before it becomes a price headline.","producerDecision":"Check movement, replacement purchases, and export-linked commitments before assuming normal buyer access.","severity":"high","confidence":40,"publishedAt":"2026-06-06T10:45:00.000Z","sourceId":"gdelt-global-news","sourceName":"GDELT Global Event Monitor","sourceUrl":"https://www.internazionale.it/ultime-notizie-reuters/2026/06/06/screwworm-border-closure-fuels-beef-boom-in-mexico-gloom-in-texas","scenarioIds":["disease-alert"],"historicalDriverIds":["export-pull-to-local-basis"],"sourceGraphEdgeIds":["gdelt-news-to-market-event-risk","wahis-disease-to-movement"]},{"id":"google-news-rss-global-feed-trade-screwworm-flies-add-to-cattle-ranchers-woes-the-new-york-times-2026-06-06","title":"Screwworm Flies Add to Cattle Ranchers’ Woes - The New York Times","summary":"Public item selected because it can affect livestock movement, buyer access, and biosecurity: Screwworm Flies Add to Cattle Ranchers’ Woes - The New York Times","producerRead":"Google News public search RSS published an animal-health item. Treat it as a movement, buyer-access, and biosecurity signal before it becomes a price headline.","producerDecision":"Check movement, replacement purchases, and export-linked commitments before assuming normal buyer access.","severity":"high","confidence":82,"publishedAt":"2026-06-06T09:02:04.000Z","sourceId":"google-news-rss","sourceName":"Google News public search RSS","sourceUrl":"https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMihgFBVV95cUxPam5NTGN1NjhwVUl6QmJRRXpTUksxSXk3YW5uSXVWV1FKT2p4dVNCNzhMSEFRNnBSTk5vWWJzR3NjMmJUM2RJVnZpQVZLNF9DWUZ4V1VfTE9waU4xd0IxVnJHNm9malJsTGE1X0ZVckpjbHRHSDlESmN2cWZMNktHb2FDQzJNUQ?oc=5","scenarioIds":["disease-alert"],"historicalDriverIds":["export-pull-to-local-basis"],"sourceGraphEdgeIds":["google-news-rss-category-causal-edge","wahis-disease-to-movement"]},{"id":"google-news-rss-animal-health-canada-bans-texas-cattle-over-flesh-eating-screwworm-outbreak-in-us-bbc-2026-06-06","title":"Canada bans Texas cattle over flesh-eating screwworm outbreak in US - BBC","summary":"Public item selected because it can affect livestock movement, buyer access, and biosecurity: Canada bans Texas cattle over flesh-eating screwworm outbreak in US - BBC","producerRead":"Google News public search RSS published an animal-health item. Treat it as a movement, buyer-access, and biosecurity signal before it becomes a price headline.","producerDecision":"Check movement, replacement purchases, and export-linked commitments before assuming normal buyer access.","severity":"high","confidence":82,"publishedAt":"2026-06-06T04:22:25.000Z","sourceId":"google-news-rss","sourceName":"Google News public search RSS","sourceUrl":"https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiWkFVX3lxTE02Q0NodGVFcGVBOVBROVVKWkF5NHhlZkV1X0puU3JrWHYxaEJlODFXZFNDczFYbURXdTJGQ3pqUWxORmFGYnl3Rll1OGhJYWdRa1VmSERGZGh0QQ?oc=5","scenarioIds":["disease-alert"],"historicalDriverIds":["export-pull-to-local-basis"],"sourceGraphEdgeIds":["google-news-rss-category-causal-edge","wahis-disease-to-movement"]},{"id":"google-news-rss-animal-health-us-plans-to-fight-flesh-eating-screwworm-outbreak-with-flies-and-dogs-bbc-2026-06-06","title":"US plans to fight flesh-eating screwworm outbreak with flies and dogs - BBC","summary":"Public item selected because it can affect livestock movement, buyer access, and biosecurity: US plans to fight flesh-eating screwworm outbreak with flies and dogs - BBC","producerRead":"Google News public search RSS published an animal-health item. Treat it as a movement, buyer-access, and biosecurity signal before it becomes a price headline.","producerDecision":"Check movement, replacement purchases, and export-linked commitments before assuming normal buyer access.","severity":"high","confidence":82,"publishedAt":"2026-06-06T01:55:03.000Z","sourceId":"google-news-rss","sourceName":"Google News public search RSS","sourceUrl":"https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiWkFVX3lxTFBibTB3eS1FdHY1U2U3LThVVUgzNEZCb1ZPSW90cTVqZy1uaUxQMldUSTM5MWZHOV9KQjVOaU5jeVJybGJBN2pJanFiZ2ZTckFyZmZfYlY3b21QZw?oc=5","scenarioIds":["disease-alert"],"historicalDriverIds":["export-pull-to-local-basis"],"sourceGraphEdgeIds":["google-news-rss-category-causal-edge","wahis-disease-to-movement"]},{"id":"google-news-rss-animal-health-first-u-s-screwworm-case-since-1960s-prompts-texas-emergency-response-the-new-york-t-2026-06-06","title":"First U.S. Screwworm Case Since 1960s Prompts Texas Emergency Response - The New York Times","summary":"Public item selected because it can affect livestock movement, buyer access, and biosecurity: First U.S. Screwworm Case Since 1960s Prompts Texas Emergency Response - The New York Times","producerRead":"Google News public search RSS published an animal-health item. Treat it as a movement, buyer-access, and biosecurity signal before it becomes a price headline.","producerDecision":"Check movement, replacement purchases, and export-linked commitments before assuming normal buyer access.","severity":"high","confidence":82,"publishedAt":"2026-06-06T01:04:30.000Z","sourceId":"google-news-rss","sourceName":"Google News public search RSS","sourceUrl":"https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMinwFBVV95cUxOZzFyS0RJWmwzYlJlUXVGTk5FUGVVTkZ3SFZnaE1vUmZ5eFZFVUtDZVUzNlNFZ3RQcV9iUnBxanNQMjRsUTZNSlUtZEw3Z3hRbE02bk16amQ2cjV0SV9oSGFGX3RzT0lFUXltYll5LTlkQ0VuMC1HWXV3QUVZVUhSWU1PNzR5Y3dRUzNXVVFYNzh3TGRlbWlVLVluUGVlaUE?oc=5","scenarioIds":["disease-alert"],"historicalDriverIds":["export-pull-to-local-basis"],"sourceGraphEdgeIds":["google-news-rss-category-causal-edge","wahis-disease-to-movement"]},{"id":"google-news-rss-animal-health-texas-ranchers-on-edge-after-screwworm-parasite-detected-in-calf-reuters-2026-06-05","title":"Texas ranchers on edge after screwworm parasite detected in calf - Reuters","summary":"Public item selected because it can affect livestock movement, buyer access, and biosecurity: Texas ranchers on edge after screwworm parasite detected in calf - Reuters","producerRead":"Google News public search RSS published an animal-health item. Treat it as a movement, buyer-access, and biosecurity signal before it becomes a price headline.","producerDecision":"Check movement, replacement purchases, and export-linked commitments before assuming normal buyer access.","severity":"high","confidence":82,"publishedAt":"2026-06-05T21:58:11.000Z","sourceId":"google-news-rss","sourceName":"Google News public search RSS","sourceUrl":"https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiygFBVV95cUxQYWoyX0Yzc1NVbTI3YmZiRkUyUC1McjZRa3NVaElfN2lXd1RFaVd3QXhUZDVGUFB3bHFPMjg1cTJiRXlhRUNUaE5ad0tXLXl3QW4wcmpraGFaR2FnVE1SSmVBUktITHQ5VnU0UlBaenAxXzNobTI2ODd4bWZZYkdIQlM2emdtVWpJdUd3TGFPNF9EaXJwd0U3djQyM0ZHanVZaVNTS3R0QmpVdDFGcXVPc3kwdFJpUHdPSU52SW56bzVmZkNjZk1hckJR?oc=5","scenarioIds":["disease-alert"],"historicalDriverIds":["export-pull-to-local-basis"],"sourceGraphEdgeIds":["google-news-rss-category-causal-edge","wahis-disease-to-movement"]}],"citationText":"North America Animal health shock radar combines 29 public evidence items, 6 source families, and 1 scenarios for North America."},{"id":"shock-north-america-trade-export-disruption","regionId":"north-america","categoryKey":"trade","category":"Trade and policy","title":"North America Trade and policy shock radar","summary":"11 public items from Google News public search RSS, BeefPoint, USDA FAS Export Sales Reporting cluster around trade and policy. Latest: NATO to beef up forces assigned to defend Baltics in war, sources say - Reuters","producerDecision":"Bid cattle and feed with destination risk, freight, currency, and policy in the same calculation.","watchNext":"Compare destination exposure, border access, port movement, currency, and processor bids before locking volume.","scenarioRead":"Most connected scenario: Export or border disruption. Use the cluster to decide whether that scenario is warming or cooling.","severity":"high","confidence":79,"score":3167,"evidenceCount":11,"latestPublishedAt":"2026-06-04T23:06:37.000Z","sectors":["beef"],"sourceFamilies":[{"id":"google-news-rss","name":"Google News public search RSS","category":"Regional","officialUrl":"https://news.google.com/rss","cadence":"Near real time","coverage":"Public search RSS monitoring for cattle, dairy, feed, crop, weather, animal-health, trade, freight, and policy shocks across English, Spanish, and Portuguese queries","producerUse":"public news search, regional livestock alerts, trade disruption, feed input shock"},{"id":"beefpoint-rss","name":"BeefPoint RSS","category":"Regional","officialUrl":"https://www.beefpoint.com.br/feed/","cadence":"Daily","coverage":"Brazil cattle-market, feedlot, beef-export, processor, and pasture-fed production news","producerUse":"boi gordo, feedlot, beef exports, processor demand"},{"id":"usda-esr","name":"USDA Export Sales Reporting","category":"Trade","officialUrl":"https://apps.fas.usda.gov/export-sales/esrd1.html","cadence":"Weekly","coverage":"Weekly U.S. export sales and shipments for beef, corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, and feed ingredients","producerUse":"export commitments, weekly shipments, buyer destination, crop demand"}],"sourceGraph":[{"id":"google-news-rss-category-causal-edge","sourceId":"google-news-rss","sourceName":"Google News public search RSS","driver":"Regional event, policy, and local-market context","affects":"Local prices, buyer behavior, public policy, logistics, input access, and producer confidence","producerDecision":"Use the regional source to localize national headlines before changing the farm plan.","lag":"Same day to 1 year","confidence":64},{"id":"fas-trade-to-basis","sourceId":"usda-fas","sourceName":"USDA FAS Open Data","driver":"Export pull and trade-policy pressure","affects":"Processor bids, regional basis, offal value, and cull cow demand","producerDecision":"Watch buyer access before committing volume into a weak local bid.","lag":"1-6 weeks","confidence":84},{"id":"gain-policy-to-market-access","sourceId":"usda-gain","sourceName":"USDA FAS GAIN reports","driver":"Policy and market-access change before official statistics update","affects":"Export eligibility, buyer demand, import competition, and regional price ceilings","producerDecision":"Treat policy reports as a forward signal for buyer access, not as background reading.","lag":"Same day to 3 months","confidence":79},{"id":"beefpoint-rss-category-causal-edge","sourceId":"beefpoint-rss","sourceName":"BeefPoint RSS","driver":"Regional event, policy, and local-market context","affects":"Local prices, buyer behavior, public policy, logistics, input access, and producer confidence","producerDecision":"Use the regional source to localize national headlines before changing the farm plan.","lag":"Same day to 1 year","confidence":64},{"id":"export-sales-to-buyer-pull","sourceId":"usda-esr","sourceName":"USDA Export Sales Reporting","driver":"Export buyer pull before customs data confirms it","affects":"Beef cutout support, grain basis, local processor bids, and feed ingredient demand","producerDecision":"Watch export-sales acceleration as an early signal for stronger cash bids or tighter feed.","lag":"1-5 weeks","confidence":83}],"historicalDrivers":[{"id":"export-pull-to-local-basis","driver":"Export pull changes local basis","lookbackWindow":"4-52 weeks","forwardWindow":"1-12 weeks","lag":"Export sales lead shipments; shipments lead customs totals; customs totals confirm structural demand.","leadingSignals":["Weekly sales or attaché reports change before monthly trade files","Destination concentration rises","Currency makes local supply cheaper or dearer to importers"],"forwardEffects":["Processor bids widen or narrow by export access","Feed and crop basis shifts around ports and corridors","Sanitary or border events can erase the signal quickly"],"producerDecision":"Price cattle and crops with local basis plus destination exposure, not only the national headline.","confidence":82}],"scenarios":[{"id":"export-disruption","name":"Export or border disruption","sector":"beef","defaultIntensity":30,"description":"A sanitary, policy, currency, or logistics event changes buyer access.","producerDecision":"Do not assume local bids are stable when export channels or border rules move."}],"latestEvents":[{"id":"google-news-rss-mexico-central-america-cattle-cnog-propone-reabrir-la-frontera-de-ee-uu-al-comercio-de-ganado-tras-primer-caso-de--2026-06-04","title":"CNOG propone reabrir la frontera de EE. UU. al comercio de ganado tras primer caso de gusano barrenador en Texas - Ganaderia.com","summary":"Public item selected because trade, border, or market-access changes can move local cattle, dairy, feed, and crop bids: CNOG propone reabrir la frontera de EE. UU. al comercio de ganado tras primer caso de gusano barrenador en Texas - Ganaderia.com","producerRead":"Google News public search RSS published a trade or policy item. Read it against export eligibility, processor bids, input imports, and destination concentration.","producerDecision":"Price cattle, milk, feed, and crops with destination exposure before committing volume.","severity":"medium","confidence":78,"publishedAt":"2026-06-04T23:06:37.000Z","sourceId":"google-news-rss","sourceName":"Google News public search RSS","sourceUrl":"https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMi3gFBVV95cUxNbno4dDJKSkVUQ3pOMXh1V193bEM3WFVoVWt6ZTRoZUhzRmFHNzR3OUtGMElqeVpRb1g2WHp0b2NRTzRWOHktMzJEel9lWW91UlF3U3AzWVJIYV9IZEQ2VUN6YlMzV1EtNUdycUR0QlF3Y1hGalFCLUNJdzZsbzJMcEhwZm9MemZ6UDJnWTBEMlMzLWM5VXhteUNIbzBUV3JnZXd3YUh5djJfZlN3U1BwQnZucUY1cXN3N3BiWDdScFMyeTh5aHI1WDcxWjBpT0MzZXR6QUVrM29famJNSHc?oc=5","scenarioIds":["export-disruption"],"historicalDriverIds":["export-pull-to-local-basis"],"sourceGraphEdgeIds":["google-news-rss-category-causal-edge","fas-trade-to-basis","gain-policy-to-market-access"]},{"id":"beefpoint-rss-setor-de-carne-bovina-tem-alivio-momentaneo-com-isencao-de-nova-tarifa-dos-eua-2026-06-03","title":"Setor de carne bovina tem ‘alívio momentâneo’ com isenção de nova tarifa dos EUA","summary":"Public item selected because trade, border, or market-access changes can move local cattle, dairy, feed, and crop bids: Setor de carne bovina tem ‘alívio momentâneo’ com isenção de nova tarifa dos EUA","producerRead":"BeefPoint published a trade or policy item. Read it against export eligibility, processor bids, input imports, and destination concentration.","producerDecision":"Price cattle, milk, feed, and crops with destination exposure before committing volume.","severity":"medium","confidence":78,"publishedAt":"2026-06-03T11:32:30.000Z","sourceId":"beefpoint-rss","sourceName":"BeefPoint","sourceUrl":"https://beefpoint.com.br/setor-de-carne-bovina-tem-alivio-momentaneo-com-isencao-de-nova-tarifa-dos-eua/","scenarioIds":["export-disruption"],"historicalDriverIds":["export-pull-to-local-basis"],"sourceGraphEdgeIds":["beefpoint-rss-category-causal-edge","fas-trade-to-basis","gain-policy-to-market-access"]},{"id":"usda-esr-weekly-beef-2026-05-28","title":"USDA export sales: Beef","summary":"Net sales of 4,900 MT for 2026 were down 62 percent from the previous week and 48 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases primarily for Japan (1,800 MT, including decreases of 300 MT), Mexico (1,100 MT, including decreases of 100 MT), South Korea (800 MT, including decreases of 400 MT), Taiwan (600 MT, including decreases of 400 MT), and Canada (400 MT), were offset by reductions for Hong Kong (200 MT), Vietnam (200 MT), and Indonesia (100 MT).","producerRead":"USDA FAS Export Sales Reporting published a trade or policy item. Read it against export eligibility, processor bids, input imports, and destination concentration.","producerDecision":"Price cattle, milk, feed, and crops with destination exposure before committing volume.","severity":"medium","confidence":88,"publishedAt":"2026-05-28T00:00:00.000Z","sourceId":"usda-esr","sourceName":"USDA FAS Export Sales Reporting","sourceUrl":"https://apps.fas.usda.gov/esrqs/StaticReports/WeeklyHighlightsReport.xml","scenarioIds":["export-disruption"],"historicalDriverIds":["export-pull-to-local-basis"],"sourceGraphEdgeIds":["export-sales-to-buyer-pull","fas-trade-to-basis","gain-policy-to-market-access"]},{"id":"google-news-rss-global-feed-trade-nato-to-beef-up-forces-assigned-to-defend-baltics-in-war-sources-say-reuters-2026-05-26","title":"NATO to beef up forces assigned to defend Baltics in war, sources say - Reuters","summary":"Public item selected because trade, border, or market-access changes can move local cattle, dairy, feed, and crop bids: NATO to beef up forces assigned to defend Baltics in war, sources say - Reuters","producerRead":"Google News public search RSS published a trade or policy item. Read it against export eligibility, processor bids, input imports, and destination concentration.","producerDecision":"Price cattle, milk, feed, and crops with destination exposure before committing volume.","severity":"high","confidence":82,"publishedAt":"2026-05-26T07:00:00.000Z","sourceId":"google-news-rss","sourceName":"Google News public search RSS","sourceUrl":"https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMivwFBVV95cUxNUWhxbUhxcHA2akJFaEd4U2ZOWmEtWHhjTUNWNGdIS21CNEt1NExFUDh6eWE1UUgzNVlzaWhuampiRW1Eb2VqS3J1V0t0RE5hOWhiRjV1RzhhLU9ZRnlKejUyRXUtUEVyWlBvcG1jbnNYSHUzcFktTWdVbEdsWGxkaHpBU2pJQVZCSENJbE9sVzVwRmxTZGlLOFlydkNrSXB6MzlpdEZZYVdDVVgyNlJWRmZIZ2hldGliTGZBUzhsNA?oc=5","scenarioIds":["export-disruption"],"historicalDriverIds":["export-pull-to-local-basis"],"sourceGraphEdgeIds":["google-news-rss-category-causal-edge","fas-trade-to-basis","gain-policy-to-market-access"]},{"id":"google-news-rss-mexico-central-america-cattle-sonora-esta-lista-para-reanudar-exportaciones-de-ganado-a-estados-unidos-el-sol-de-m-2026-05-19","title":"Sonora está lista para reanudar exportaciones de ganado a Estados Unidos - El Sol de México","summary":"Public item selected because trade, border, or market-access changes can move local cattle, dairy, feed, and crop bids: Sonora está lista para reanudar exportaciones de ganado a Estados Unidos - El Sol de México","producerRead":"Google News public search RSS published a trade or policy item. Read it against export eligibility, processor bids, input imports, and destination concentration.","producerDecision":"Price cattle, milk, feed, and crops with destination exposure before committing volume.","severity":"medium","confidence":78,"publishedAt":"2026-05-19T07:00:00.000Z","sourceId":"google-news-rss","sourceName":"Google News public search RSS","sourceUrl":"https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiwgFBVV95cUxOcDE4MVFhWEtYb09WaXdSS0EyRUJCRWpLSWZXU1RaWjVDdDNWYlRPRzQ2MmNteG5TLVZRY2loTF9zRFlfdEhXenZyMkpwaWNXNGZBbWdYcnV4NnEyeEMxZkdOZTZILWlZVnBOb0gwbFZ5NW94NExkWDZ3VDR1Yl9udGJqLVE4TjFBNHpCR2ZtYV96V2lqTXRYbUxqSHdvNlZmZHVUaXBSQkVWRVBGbloxWHg5V3VsU0NaMnpBR2NrY21IZw?oc=5","scenarioIds":["export-disruption"],"historicalDriverIds":["export-pull-to-local-basis"],"sourceGraphEdgeIds":["google-news-rss-category-causal-edge","fas-trade-to-basis","gain-policy-to-market-access"]},{"id":"google-news-rss-global-feed-trade-trump-reportedly-freezes-beef-tariff-rollback-after-rancher-revolt-no-doubt-an-exper-2026-05-13","title":"Trump Reportedly Freezes Beef Tariff Rollback After Rancher Revolt— 'No Doubt An Experiment' - Yahoo Finance","summary":"Public item selected because trade, border, or market-access changes can move local cattle, dairy, feed, and crop bids: Trump Reportedly Freezes Beef Tariff Rollback After Rancher Revolt— 'No Doubt An Experiment' - Yahoo Finance","producerRead":"Google News public search RSS published a trade or policy item. Read it against export eligibility, processor bids, input imports, and destination concentration.","producerDecision":"Price cattle, milk, feed, and crops with destination exposure before committing volume.","severity":"medium","confidence":78,"publishedAt":"2026-05-13T07:00:00.000Z","sourceId":"google-news-rss","sourceName":"Google News public search RSS","sourceUrl":"https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiowFBVV95cUxOOHgzZ3lwTW9hSzU1VC1xOFRObUtqM2E5ZzVqeThhQ1BBckRqTkhOUWU3RFc4aUlpRDJDT25rdWFveko2LXFCWkIzR0xCOXVna0F6UTJRRTBoX19TT00tUk5hYWU4WUJoOU82cWVPNlJ3VXRWdUZCRlhIZUlpczMzQ2l5U3VDTlI2M2ZNWkZMLW5XYjNtQkQ5X2ZEUm1TS2FDQnVr?oc=5","scenarioIds":["export-disruption"],"historicalDriverIds":["export-pull-to-local-basis"],"sourceGraphEdgeIds":["google-news-rss-category-causal-edge","fas-trade-to-basis","gain-policy-to-market-access"]}],"citationText":"North America Trade and policy shock radar combines 11 public evidence items, 3 source families, and 1 scenarios for North America."},{"id":"shock-north-america-geopolitical-geopolitical-shipping-shock","regionId":"north-america","categoryKey":"geopolitical","category":"Conflict and logistics","title":"North America Conflict and logistics shock radar","summary":"4 public items from FAO Newsroom, ReliefWeb agriculture and disaster reports cluster around conflict and logistics. Latest: Strait of Hormuz: Time running out to avert global food security crisis, FAO warns","producerDecision":"Use the source cluster as a dated evidence pack and connect it to local price, feed, weather, and health reads.","watchNext":"Use the dated reports as checks against local bids, not standalone headlines.","scenarioRead":"Most connected scenario: War and shipping disruption. Use the cluster to decide whether that scenario is warming or cooling.","severity":"high","confidence":81,"score":3113,"evidenceCount":4,"latestPublishedAt":"2026-06-05T11:36:35.000Z","sectors":["feed","beef","dairy","crops"],"sourceFamilies":[{"id":"fao-newsroom","name":"FAO Newsroom","category":"Regional","officialUrl":"https://www.fao.org/newsroom/en","cadence":"Daily to weekly","coverage":"FAO public news and reports that can affect livestock, feed, food security, trade, disease, and rural production context","producerUse":"animal health report, food security, trade disruption, rural production"},{"id":"reliefweb-agriculture","name":"ReliefWeb agriculture and disaster reports","category":"Regional","officialUrl":"https://reliefweb.int/","cadence":"Daily and event-driven","coverage":"Global drought, flood, conflict, animal health, food security, and agriculture disruption reports","producerUse":"drought reports, flood reports, conflict disruption, food security"}],"sourceGraph":[{"id":"gdelt-news-to-market-event-risk","sourceId":"gdelt-global-news","sourceName":"GDELT global event monitor","driver":"Early event awareness before official reports update","affects":"Buyer access, disease movement risk, export demand, feed input cost, weather pressure, and local sale timing","producerDecision":"Use public event signals as watch items, then confirm with official data before changing cattle, milk, feed, or crop commitments.","lag":"Same day to 8 weeks","confidence":72},{"id":"eia-diesel-to-freight-feed-cost","sourceId":"eia-fuel","sourceName":"U.S. EIA fuel prices","driver":"Freight and feed-delivery cost pressure","affects":"Hay hauling, feed delivery, yardage, crop inputs, feeder bids, and sale timing","producerDecision":"Reprice delivered feed, hay, and cattle hauling before deciding whether extra weight still pays.","lag":"Same week to 8 weeks","confidence":80},{"id":"feed-energy-to-breakeven","sourceId":"world-bank-pink-sheet","sourceName":"World Bank commodity prices","driver":"Feed, fertilizer, freight, and pasture input cost","affects":"Backgrounding breakeven, finishing margin, hay cost, and stocking decision","producerDecision":"Reprice the next 50 lb or 25 kg before buying feed or delaying sales.","lag":"1-6 weeks","confidence":80},{"id":"reliefweb-agriculture-category-causal-edge","sourceId":"reliefweb-agriculture","sourceName":"ReliefWeb agriculture and disaster reports","driver":"Regional event, policy, and local-market context","affects":"Local prices, buyer behavior, public policy, logistics, input access, and producer confidence","producerDecision":"Use the regional source to localize national headlines before changing the farm plan.","lag":"Same day to 1 year","confidence":69}],"historicalDrivers":[{"id":"geopolitical-shock-to-feed-freight","driver":"Geopolitical shocks become feed, freight, and basis risk","lookbackWindow":"Same day to 3 years","forwardWindow":"Same week to 12 months","lag":"Conflict, sanctions, or shipping-route stress can move fuel, fertilizer, grain, and freight before farmgate cattle or milk prices adjust.","leadingSignals":["Red Sea, Black Sea, canal, port, or border headlines mention grain, fertilizer, fuel, or livestock routes","Freight, fuel, fertilizer, or grain indexes move before delivered feed quotes reset","Destination or route risk weakens the translation from global price to local bid"],"forwardEffects":["Delivered feed and fertilizer become more expensive or less reliable","Local basis can diverge from headline futures or export values","Local feed substitution, earlier sale timing, or destination hedging becomes valuable"],"producerDecision":"Treat global conflict and shipping risk as a delivered-cost problem before changing sale timing, feed coverage, or crop-input purchases.","confidence":79},{"id":"logistics-to-local-basis","driver":"Logistics shocks become local basis gaps","lookbackWindow":"7 days to 3 years","forwardWindow":"Same week to 9 months","lag":"Freight and port disruption can widen local basis before national price series register the stress.","leadingSignals":["Fuel, port, rail, or border news moves before farmgate averages","Delivered feed diverges from board or benchmark price","Destination prices stop translating to local bids"],"forwardEffects":["Cattle, hay, milk, grain, and fertilizer spreads widen by corridor","Local arbitrage opportunities can appear","Remote producers face discount risk even in strong headline markets"],"producerDecision":"Price the delivered destination, not the benchmark, before moving cattle, feed, milk, or crop volume.","confidence":78}],"scenarios":[{"id":"geopolitical-shipping-shock","name":"War and shipping disruption","sector":"feed","defaultIntensity":37,"description":"Conflict, sanctions, canal disruption, or route risk changes grain, fertilizer, fuel, freight, and protein trade costs.","producerDecision":"Before holding cattle for more gain, check whether war or shipping risk has changed delivered feed, fertilizer, freight, or buyer access."},{"id":"port-freight-shock","name":"Port and freight shock","sector":"feed","defaultIntensity":36,"description":"Port congestion, fuel, border friction, or shipping disruption widens the gap between farm price and destination price.","producerDecision":"Before moving cattle, hay, grain, milk, or inputs, test whether freight has already eaten the price signal."},{"id":"feed-cost-spike","name":"Feed cost spike","sector":"feed","defaultIntensity":35,"description":"Corn, hay, soybean meal, fuel, or freight costs rise faster than cattle value.","producerDecision":"Recalculate whether the next gain period is still worth feeding."}],"latestEvents":[{"id":"reliefweb-agriculture-rss-world-fao-food-price-index-broadly-stable-in-may-even-as-cereal-quotations-increase-2026-06-05","title":"World: FAO Food Price Index broadly stable in May even as cereal quotations increase","summary":"Public item selected because war, sanctions, ports, canals, or shipping routes can change delivered feed, fertilizer, fuel, freight, and buyer access: World: FAO Food Price Index broadly stable in May even as cereal quotations increase","producerRead":"ReliefWeb agriculture and disaster reports published a war, sanctions, or shipping-route item. Read it as a delivered feed, fertilizer, fuel, freight, and buyer-access signal.","producerDecision":"Check delivered feed, fertilizer, fuel, freight, and route exposure before holding cattle longer or locking crop-input purchases.","severity":"medium","confidence":78,"publishedAt":"2026-06-05T11:36:35.000Z","sourceId":"reliefweb-agriculture","sourceName":"ReliefWeb agriculture and disaster reports","sourceUrl":"https://reliefweb.int/report/world/fao-food-price-index-broadly-stable-may-even-cereal-quotations-increase","scenarioIds":["geopolitical-shipping-shock","port-freight-shock","feed-cost-spike"],"historicalDriverIds":["geopolitical-shock-to-feed-freight","logistics-to-local-basis"],"sourceGraphEdgeIds":["reliefweb-agriculture-category-causal-edge","gdelt-news-to-market-event-risk","eia-diesel-to-freight-feed-cost","feed-energy-to-breakeven"]},{"id":"fao-newsroom-rss-strait-of-hormuz-time-running-out-to-avert-global-food-security-crisis-fao-warns-2026-05-26","title":"Strait of Hormuz: Time running out to avert global food security crisis, FAO warns","summary":"Public item selected because war, sanctions, ports, canals, or shipping routes can change delivered feed, fertilizer, fuel, freight, and buyer access: Strait of Hormuz: Time running out to avert global food security crisis, FAO warns","producerRead":"FAO Newsroom published a war, sanctions, or shipping-route item. Read it as a delivered feed, fertilizer, fuel, freight, and buyer-access signal.","producerDecision":"Check delivered feed, fertilizer, fuel, freight, and route exposure before holding cattle longer or locking crop-input purchases.","severity":"high","confidence":82,"publishedAt":"2026-05-26T12:00:00.000Z","sourceId":"fao-newsroom","sourceName":"FAO Newsroom","sourceUrl":"https://www.fao.org/newsroom/detail/strait-of-hormuz--time-running-out-to-avert-global-food-security-crisis--fao-warns/en","scenarioIds":["geopolitical-shipping-shock","port-freight-shock","feed-cost-spike"],"historicalDriverIds":["geopolitical-shock-to-feed-freight","logistics-to-local-basis"],"sourceGraphEdgeIds":["gdelt-news-to-market-event-risk","eia-diesel-to-freight-feed-cost","feed-energy-to-breakeven"]},{"id":"fao-newsroom-rss-strait-of-hormuz-conflict-threatens-global-food-prices-as-fao-warns-time-is-running--2026-05-20","title":"Strait of Hormuz conflict threatens global food prices as FAO warns time is running out","summary":"Public item selected because war, sanctions, ports, canals, or shipping routes can change delivered feed, fertilizer, fuel, freight, and buyer access: Strait of Hormuz conflict threatens global food prices as FAO warns time is running out","producerRead":"FAO Newsroom published a war, sanctions, or shipping-route item. Read it as a delivered feed, fertilizer, fuel, freight, and buyer-access signal.","producerDecision":"Check delivered feed, fertilizer, fuel, freight, and route exposure before holding cattle longer or locking crop-input purchases.","severity":"high","confidence":82,"publishedAt":"2026-05-20T12:00:00.000Z","sourceId":"fao-newsroom","sourceName":"FAO Newsroom","sourceUrl":"https://www.fao.org/newsroom/detail/strait-of-hormuz-conflict-threatens-global-food-prices-as-fao-warns-time-is-running-out/en","scenarioIds":["geopolitical-shipping-shock","port-freight-shock","feed-cost-spike"],"historicalDriverIds":["geopolitical-shock-to-feed-freight","logistics-to-local-basis"],"sourceGraphEdgeIds":["gdelt-news-to-market-event-risk","eia-diesel-to-freight-feed-cost","feed-energy-to-breakeven"]},{"id":"fao-newsroom-rss-strait-of-hormuz-crisis-fertilizer-scarcity-will-affect-next-harvests-and-food-suppl-2026-05-07","title":"Strait of Hormuz crisis: Fertilizer scarcity will affect next harvests and food supplies, FAO warns","summary":"Public item selected because war, sanctions, ports, canals, or shipping routes can change delivered feed, fertilizer, fuel, freight, and buyer access: Strait of Hormuz crisis: Fertilizer scarcity will affect next harvests and food supplies, FAO warns","producerRead":"FAO Newsroom published a war, sanctions, or shipping-route item. Read it as a delivered feed, fertilizer, fuel, freight, and buyer-access signal.","producerDecision":"Check delivered feed, fertilizer, fuel, freight, and route exposure before holding cattle longer or locking crop-input purchases.","severity":"high","confidence":82,"publishedAt":"2026-05-07T12:00:00.000Z","sourceId":"fao-newsroom","sourceName":"FAO Newsroom","sourceUrl":"https://www.fao.org/newsroom/detail/strait-of-hormuz-crisis--fertilizer-scarcity-will-affect-next-harvests-and-food-supplies--fao-warns/en","scenarioIds":["geopolitical-shipping-shock","port-freight-shock","feed-cost-spike"],"historicalDriverIds":["geopolitical-shock-to-feed-freight","logistics-to-local-basis"],"sourceGraphEdgeIds":["gdelt-news-to-market-event-risk","eia-diesel-to-freight-feed-cost","feed-energy-to-breakeven"]}],"citationText":"North America Conflict and logistics shock radar combines 4 public evidence items, 2 source families, and 3 scenarios for North America."}]}