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key","updatePriority":"daily","updatePriorityLabel":"Daily","mappedSeries":980,"officialUrl":"https://cds.climate.copernicus.eu/","sampleEndpoints":["https://cds.climate.copernicus.eu/api"],"normalizedTables":["observations","regional_rollups","producer_impacts","soil_moisture","temperature_anomaly","precipitation","vegetation_stress"],"producerUse":"Estimate pasture days, heat stress, water pressure, crop yield risk, and forced-sale timing.","graphEdgeIds":["copernicus-soil-to-yield"],"historicalDriverIds":["pasture-stress-to-sale-runs","heat-load-to-milk-gain"],"scenarioIds":["crop-yield-shock","heat-stress-milk-loss","water-restriction-shock"]},{"id":"india-imd","name":"India Meteorological Department","category":"Weather","categoryLabel":"Weather","connectorKind":"public-download","ingestionStatus":"report-parser-needed","ingestionStatusLabel":"Parser needed","updatePriority":"weekly","updatePriorityLabel":"Weekly","mappedSeries":320,"officialUrl":"https://mausam.imd.gov.in/","sampleEndpoints":["https://mausam.imd.gov.in/"],"normalizedTables":["observations","regional_rollups","producer_impacts","monsoon","heatwave","rainfall","drought"],"producerUse":"Estimate pasture days, heat stress, water pressure, crop yield risk, and forced-sale timing.","graphEdgeIds":["india-imd-category-causal-edge"],"historicalDriverIds":[],"scenarioIds":[]},{"id":"noaa-cpc","name":"NOAA Climate Prediction Center","category":"Weather","categoryLabel":"Weather","connectorKind":"public-download","ingestionStatus":"api-ready","ingestionStatusLabel":"API ready","updatePriority":"daily","updatePriorityLabel":"Daily","mappedSeries":260,"officialUrl":"https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/","sampleEndpoints":["https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/"],"normalizedTables":["observations","regional_rollups","producer_impacts","seasonal_outlook","enso","hazards","precipitation_anomaly"],"producerUse":"Estimate pasture days, heat stress, water pressure, crop yield risk, and forced-sale timing.","graphEdgeIds":["noaa-cpc-category-causal-edge"],"historicalDriverIds":["heat-load-to-milk-gain"],"scenarioIds":["heat-stress-milk-loss"]},{"id":"world-bank-climate","name":"World Bank Climate Data","category":"Weather","categoryLabel":"Weather","connectorKind":"public-download","ingestionStatus":"report-parser-needed","ingestionStatusLabel":"Parser needed","updatePriority":"monthly","updatePriorityLabel":"Monthly","mappedSeries":260,"officialUrl":"https://climateknowledgeportal.worldbank.org/","sampleEndpoints":["https://climateknowledgeportal.worldbank.org/"],"normalizedTables":["observations","regional_rollups","producer_impacts","country_climate_risk","precipitation_trend","temperature_trend","drought_exposure"],"producerUse":"Estimate pasture days, heat stress, water pressure, crop yield risk, and forced-sale timing.","graphEdgeIds":["world-bank-climate-category-causal-edge"],"historicalDriverIds":["heat-load-to-milk-gain"],"scenarioIds":["crop-yield-shock","heat-stress-milk-loss","water-restriction-shock"]},{"id":"indonesia-bmkg","name":"Indonesia BMKG climate and weather","category":"Weather","categoryLabel":"Weather","connectorKind":"public-download","ingestionStatus":"report-parser-needed","ingestionStatusLabel":"Parser needed","updatePriority":"weekly","updatePriorityLabel":"Weekly","mappedSeries":220,"officialUrl":"https://www.bmkg.go.id/","sampleEndpoints":["https://www.bmkg.go.id/"],"normalizedTables":["observations","regional_rollups","producer_impacts","rainfall","drought","flood","climate_outlook"],"producerUse":"Estimate pasture days, heat stress, water pressure, crop yield risk, and forced-sale timing.","graphEdgeIds":["indonesia-bmkg-category-causal-edge"],"historicalDriverIds":[],"scenarioIds":[]},{"id":"nasa-firms","name":"NASA FIRMS fire data","category":"Weather","categoryLabel":"Weather","connectorKind":"api-json","ingestionStatus":"requires-key","ingestionStatusLabel":"Requires key","updatePriority":"daily","updatePriorityLabel":"Daily","mappedSeries":210,"officialUrl":"https://firms.modaps.eosdis.nasa.gov/","sampleEndpoints":["https://firms.modaps.eosdis.nasa.gov/"],"normalizedTables":["observations","regional_rollups","producer_impacts","wildfire","pasture_burn_risk","smoke","transport_disruption"],"producerUse":"Estimate pasture days, heat stress, water pressure, crop yield risk, and forced-sale timing.","graphEdgeIds":["nasa-firms-category-causal-edge"],"historicalDriverIds":[],"scenarioIds":[]}],"sourceGraph":[{"id":"nasa-weather-to-heat","sourceId":"nasa-power","sourceName":"NASA POWER","signal":"Temperature, humidity, wind, rainfall by coordinate","driver":"Heat load, water stress, and pasture regrowth","affects":"Gain, intake, fertility, death loss risk, and shade or water planning","producerDecision":"Adjust transport, feeding time, stocking rate, and water checks before stress peaks.","lag":"0-10 days","confidence":83,"regions":["north-america","latin-america","oceania","europe","africa-asia"],"sectors":["beef","dairy","feed"]},{"id":"open-meteo-forecast-to-forward-forage","sourceId":"open-meteo-forecast","sourceName":"Open-Meteo global weather forecast","signal":"7-day precipitation and temperature forecast by geo node","driver":"Forward pasture, heat, water, and forage pressure","affects":"Sale timing, feed coverage, water checks, milk yield, weight gain, and crop-feed risk","producerDecision":"Use the next-week rain and heat forecast before moving cattle, buying hay, changing supplement, or holding weight.","lag":"0-14 days","confidence":78,"regions":["north-america","latin-america","oceania","europe","africa-asia"],"sectors":["beef","dairy","feed","crops"]},{"id":"copernicus-soil-to-yield","sourceId":"copernicus-cds","sourceName":"Copernicus Climate Data Store","signal":"Soil moisture, reanalysis weather, drought, and vegetation stress","driver":"Pasture and crop yield stress before harvest or sale runs","affects":"Forage carrying days, crop yield, feed price, stocking rate, and water planning","producerDecision":"Adjust stocking, hay purchases, crop marketing, and irrigation before official production reports.","lag":"2 weeks to 6 months","confidence":82,"regions":["north-america","latin-america","oceania","europe","africa-asia"],"sectors":["feed","crops","beef","dairy"]},{"id":"noaa-cpc-category-causal-edge","sourceId":"noaa-cpc","sourceName":"NOAA Climate Prediction Center","signal":"NOAA Climate Prediction Center: seasonal outlook, ENSO, hazards, precipitation anomaly","driver":"Weather, forage, heat, and water stress","affects":"Pasture days, stocking rate, milk yield, crop yield, hay demand, and forced-sale risk","producerDecision":"Translate weather into forage days, water checks, feed coverage, and sale-or-hold thresholds.","lag":"0 days to 16 weeks","confidence":69,"regions":["north-america","latin-america","oceania","europe","africa-asia"],"sectors":["beef","dairy","feed","crops"]},{"id":"nasa-firms-category-causal-edge","sourceId":"nasa-firms","sourceName":"NASA FIRMS fire data","signal":"NASA FIRMS fire data: wildfire, pasture burn risk, smoke, transport disruption","driver":"Weather, forage, heat, and water stress","affects":"Pasture days, stocking rate, milk yield, crop yield, hay demand, and forced-sale risk","producerDecision":"Translate weather into forage days, water checks, feed coverage, and sale-or-hold thresholds.","lag":"0 days to 16 weeks","confidence":69,"regions":["north-america","latin-america","oceania","europe","africa-asia"],"sectors":["feed","crops","beef","dairy"]},{"id":"world-bank-climate-category-causal-edge","sourceId":"world-bank-climate","sourceName":"World Bank Climate Data","signal":"World Bank Climate Data: country climate risk, precipitation trend, temperature trend, drought exposure","driver":"Weather, forage, heat, and water stress","affects":"Pasture days, stocking rate, milk yield, crop yield, hay demand, and forced-sale risk","producerDecision":"Translate weather into forage days, water checks, feed coverage, and sale-or-hold thresholds.","lag":"0 days to 16 weeks","confidence":69,"regions":["north-america","latin-america","oceania","europe","africa-asia"],"sectors":["beef","dairy","feed","crops"]},{"id":"india-imd-category-causal-edge","sourceId":"india-imd","sourceName":"India Meteorological Department","signal":"India Meteorological Department: monsoon, heatwave, rainfall, drought","driver":"Weather, forage, heat, and water stress","affects":"Pasture days, stocking rate, milk yield, crop yield, hay demand, and forced-sale risk","producerDecision":"Translate weather into forage days, water checks, feed coverage, and sale-or-hold thresholds.","lag":"0 days to 16 weeks","confidence":69,"regions":["africa-asia"],"sectors":["beef","dairy","feed","crops"]},{"id":"indonesia-bmkg-category-causal-edge","sourceId":"indonesia-bmkg","sourceName":"Indonesia BMKG climate and weather","signal":"Indonesia BMKG climate and weather: rainfall, drought, flood, climate outlook","driver":"Weather, forage, heat, and water stress","affects":"Pasture days, stocking rate, milk yield, crop yield, hay demand, and forced-sale risk","producerDecision":"Translate weather into forage days, water checks, feed coverage, and sale-or-hold thresholds.","lag":"0 days to 16 weeks","confidence":69,"regions":["africa-asia"],"sectors":["beef","dairy","feed","crops"]},{"id":"kenya-ndma-drought-category-causal-edge","sourceId":"kenya-ndma-drought","sourceName":"Kenya NDMA drought early warning","signal":"Kenya NDMA drought early warning: drought, forage, water, livestock condition","driver":"Weather, forage, heat, and water stress","affects":"Pasture days, stocking rate, milk yield, crop yield, hay demand, and forced-sale risk","producerDecision":"Translate weather into forage days, water checks, feed coverage, and sale-or-hold thresholds.","lag":"0 days to 16 weeks","confidence":69,"regions":["africa-asia"],"sectors":["beef","dairy","feed"]}],"historicalDrivers":[{"id":"pasture-stress-to-sale-runs","driver":"Pasture stress becomes sale pressure","lookbackWindow":"30-120 days","forwardWindow":"2-16 weeks","lag":"Pasture stress usually hits feed buying first, sale runs second, and replacement prices last.","leadingSignals":["Soil moisture drops below seasonal median","Pasture condition ratings deteriorate","Hay and supplement quotes firm before auction volume rises"],"forwardEffects":["More calves and cull cows move earlier","Replacement animals face discount risk in dry regions","Feed cost can erase the value of extra gain"],"producerDecision":"Move from calendar-based selling to forage-days and feed-margin selling.","confidence":86,"sourceIds":["us-drought-monitor","nasa-power","copernicus-cds","bom-climate","brazil-inmet","mexico-siap","gdelt-global-news"]},{"id":"export-pull-to-local-basis","driver":"Export pull changes local basis","lookbackWindow":"4-52 weeks","forwardWindow":"1-12 weeks","lag":"Export sales lead shipments; shipments lead customs totals; customs totals confirm structural demand.","leadingSignals":["Weekly sales or attaché reports change before monthly trade files","Destination concentration rises","Currency makes local supply cheaper or dearer to importers"],"forwardEffects":["Processor bids widen or narrow by export access","Feed and crop basis shifts around ports and corridors","Sanitary or border events can erase the signal quickly"],"producerDecision":"Price cattle and crops with local basis plus destination exposure, not only the national headline.","confidence":82,"sourceIds":["usda-esr","usda-fas","un-comtrade","brazil-mapa-agrostat","comex-stat","mexico-siap","brazil-bcb-sgs","gdelt-global-news"]},{"id":"crop-balance-to-feed-margin","driver":"Crop balance becomes feed margin","lookbackWindow":"90 days to 5 years","forwardWindow":"1-18 months","lag":"Acreage and crop condition lead production; production leads feed price; feed price leads cattle and milk margins.","leadingSignals":["Acreage, crop progress, and soil moisture shift together","Balance-sheet revisions tighten ending stocks","Rail, freight, or port pressure widens local basis"],"forwardEffects":["Backgrounding and finishing margins compress","Dairy ration spend rises before cull flow changes","Crop producers may gain price opportunity while livestock producers face cost risk"],"producerDecision":"Use the crop balance to decide feed coverage, hay buying, grain pricing, and stocking rate.","confidence":84,"sourceIds":["usda-wasde","usda-nass","usda-ers-feed-grains","conab","comex-stat","mexico-siap","faostat","gdelt-global-news"]},{"id":"dairy-margin-to-beef-supply","driver":"Dairy margins become beef supply","lookbackWindow":"4-26 weeks","forwardWindow":"2-20 weeks","lag":"Milk price and feed cost hit dairy margins before cull cow flow and beef supply respond.","leadingSignals":["Milk-feed spread narrows","Dairy auction prices weaken","Feed and energy prices rise together"],"forwardEffects":["Cull cows enter beef supply","Replacement appetite weakens","Milk output can fall after ration cuts"],"producerDecision":"Reprice ration, cull timing, and replacement purchases before monthly milk checks settle.","confidence":81,"sourceIds":["eu-milk","gdt-events","usda-ers-dairy","usda-ams","mexico-siap","world-bank-pink-sheet","ibge-sidra","brazil-bcb-sgs","gdelt-global-news"]},{"id":"health-alert-to-market-access","driver":"Animal-health alerts become market-access friction","lookbackWindow":"Same day to 5 years","forwardWindow":"Same day to 12 months","lag":"A disease notice can affect movement immediately, then trade access and buyer confidence over weeks or months.","leadingSignals":["Official disease notice or surveillance update","Movement guidance, testing rules, or border language changes","Buyer discounts appear before broad price averages adjust"],"forwardEffects":["Movement costs and delays rise","Export eligibility or buyer confidence can narrow","Biosecurity spend becomes part of the margin calculation"],"producerDecision":"Check health status before moving cattle, buying replacements, or signing export-sensitive commitments.","confidence":83,"sourceIds":["woah-wahis","usda-aphis","argentina-senasa","paraguay-senacsa","australia-daff","gdelt-global-news"]},{"id":"credit-cost-to-retention","driver":"Credit cost changes retention and input timing","lookbackWindow":"30 days to 5 years","forwardWindow":"1 month to 24 months","lag":"Interest and credit changes hit input prepay and replacements before they show up in herd-size data.","leadingSignals":["Policy rates, farm credit, or inflation move together","Replacement purchases slow even when cattle prices look attractive","Input prepay windows get shorter"],"forwardEffects":["Retained ownership becomes harder to finance","Crop input timing can shift acreage and feed supply","Dairy ration and replacement choices tighten"],"producerDecision":"Run feed, replacement, and planting choices through a cash-flow calendar before chasing headline price.","confidence":79,"sourceIds":["fred-ag-macro","imf-ifs","brazil-bcb-sgs","world-bank-wdi","bls-ag-inputs"]},{"id":"logistics-to-local-basis","driver":"Logistics shocks become local basis gaps","lookbackWindow":"7 days to 3 years","forwardWindow":"Same week to 9 months","lag":"Freight and port disruption can widen local basis before national price series register the stress.","leadingSignals":["Fuel, port, rail, or border news moves before farmgate averages","Delivered feed diverges from board or benchmark price","Destination prices stop translating to local bids"],"forwardEffects":["Cattle, hay, milk, grain, and fertilizer spreads widen by corridor","Local arbitrage opportunities can appear","Remote producers face discount risk even in strong headline markets"],"producerDecision":"Price the delivered destination, not the benchmark, before moving cattle, feed, milk, or crop volume.","confidence":78,"sourceIds":["eia-fuel","un-comtrade","brazil-mapa-agrostat","comex-stat","gdelt-global-news"]},{"id":"geopolitical-shock-to-feed-freight","driver":"Geopolitical shocks become feed, freight, and basis risk","lookbackWindow":"Same day to 3 years","forwardWindow":"Same week to 12 months","lag":"Conflict, sanctions, or shipping-route stress can move fuel, fertilizer, grain, and freight before farmgate cattle or milk prices adjust.","leadingSignals":["Red Sea, Black Sea, canal, port, or border headlines mention grain, fertilizer, fuel, or livestock routes","Freight, fuel, fertilizer, or grain indexes move before delivered feed quotes reset","Destination or route risk weakens the translation from global price to local bid"],"forwardEffects":["Delivered feed and fertilizer become more expensive or less reliable","Local basis can diverge from headline futures or export values","Local feed substitution, earlier sale timing, or destination hedging becomes valuable"],"producerDecision":"Treat global conflict and shipping risk as a delivered-cost problem before changing sale timing, feed coverage, or crop-input purchases.","confidence":79,"sourceIds":["gdelt-global-news","reliefweb-agriculture","fao-giews","suez-canal-authority","panama-canal-authority","baltic-exchange","world-bank-pink-sheet","eia-fuel","un-comtrade","usda-oce-port-grain"]}],"scenarios":[{"id":"drought-shock","name":"Drought tightens forage","sector":"feed","defaultIntensity":42,"description":"Pasture weakens, hay gets tighter, and more cows or calves can move earlier than planned.","producerDecision":"Check forage inventory, water, and the value of selling lighter cattle before everyone else is forced to.","sourceIds":["us-drought-monitor","noaa-climate","nasa-power","bom-climate","mexico-siap","gdelt-global-news"]},{"id":"feed-cost-spike","name":"Feed cost spike","sector":"feed","defaultIntensity":35,"description":"Corn, hay, soybean meal, fuel, or freight costs rise faster than cattle value.","producerDecision":"Recalculate whether the next gain period is still worth feeding.","sourceIds":["usda-ams","usda-nass","usda-ers-feed-grains","conab","mexico-siap","world-bank-pink-sheet","eia-fuel","cftc-cot","gdelt-global-news"]},{"id":"export-disruption","name":"Export or border disruption","sector":"beef","defaultIntensity":30,"description":"A sanitary, policy, currency, or logistics event changes buyer access.","producerDecision":"Do not assume local bids are stable when export channels or border rules move.","sourceIds":["usda-fas","comex-stat","mexico-siap","woah-wahis","argentina-senasa","cftc-cot","gdelt-global-news"]},{"id":"milk-margin-squeeze","name":"Milk margin squeeze","sector":"dairy","defaultIntensity":33,"description":"Milk price weakens while feed, energy, or cull cow pressure rises.","producerDecision":"Reprice feed, cull timing, and replacement animals before ration spend outruns milk value.","sourceIds":["eu-milk","usda-ams","mexico-siap","eurostat-agri","world-bank-pink-sheet","gdelt-global-news"]},{"id":"crop-yield-shock","name":"Crop yield shock","sector":"crops","defaultIntensity":38,"description":"Soil moisture, heat, and rainfall patterns point to lower crop yields before harvest data is published.","producerDecision":"Decide whether to protect feed needs, price grain, adjust planting, or buy hay before local shortages are obvious.","sourceIds":["copernicus-cds","usda-wasde","usda-nass","usda-ers-feed-grains","nasa-power","world-bank-climate","cftc-cot","gdelt-global-news"]},{"id":"fertilizer-energy-squeeze","name":"Fertilizer and energy squeeze","sector":"crops","defaultIntensity":32,"description":"Fertilizer, diesel, freight, and credit costs rise before crop or cattle prices fully adjust.","producerDecision":"Stress-test planting, feed procurement, and replacement purchases against higher working-capital cost.","sourceIds":["world-bank-pink-sheet","bls-ag-inputs","eia-fuel","imf-ifs","gdelt-global-news"]},{"id":"credit-interest-squeeze","name":"Credit and interest squeeze","sector":"beef","defaultIntensity":27,"description":"Higher financing cost changes replacement purchases, retained ownership, crop inputs, equipment, and working capital.","producerDecision":"Run every hold, buy, feed, and planting decision through cash-flow timing, not only headline price.","sourceIds":["fred-ag-macro","imf-ifs","brazil-bcb-sgs","world-bank-wdi","gdelt-global-news"]},{"id":"port-freight-shock","name":"Port and freight shock","sector":"feed","defaultIntensity":36,"description":"Port congestion, fuel, border friction, or shipping disruption widens the gap between farm price and destination price.","producerDecision":"Before moving cattle, hay, grain, milk, or inputs, test whether freight has already eaten the price signal.","sourceIds":["gdelt-global-news","un-comtrade","brazil-mapa-agrostat","eia-fuel","world-bank-pink-sheet"]}],"geoMarketNodes":[{"id":"east-africa-dairy","name":"East Africa dairy belts","country":"Regional","latitude":0.5,"longitude":36.8,"marketRole":"Smallholder dairy, feed access, heat, and water node","dominantSectors":["dairy","feed","crops","animal-health"],"watchSignal":"Heat stress vs local feed availability"},{"id":"south-asia-dairy","name":"South Asia dairy clusters","country":"Regional","latitude":23.4,"longitude":78.8,"marketRole":"Smallholder dairy, heat, feed, and milk availability node","dominantSectors":["dairy","feed","crops","animal-health"],"watchSignal":"Heat load vs milk supply"},{"id":"gulf-import-corridor","name":"Gulf import corridors","country":"Regional","latitude":24.5,"longitude":54.5,"marketRole":"Import demand, animal health, feed grain, and logistics node","dominantSectors":["beef","dairy","feed","animal-health","crops"],"watchSignal":"Disease alerts vs import demand"},{"id":"south-africa-highveld","name":"South Africa Highveld","country":"South Africa","latitude":-26.2,"longitude":28,"marketRole":"Feedlot, maize, pasture, and disease-risk node","dominantSectors":["beef","feed","crops","animal-health"],"watchSignal":"Maize basis vs feedlot margin"}],"decisionCoverage":{"regionId":"africa-asia","coverageScore":173,"sourceFamilyCount":9,"liveSourceFamilyCount":2,"mappedSeries":22452,"currentRecords":16,"evidenceCount":66,"decisionIds":["sell-hold","feed-margin","dairy-margin","trade-basis","water-forage"],"scenarioIds":["drought-shock","export-disruption","feed-cost-spike","disease-alert","crop-yield-shock","milk-margin-squeeze","fertilizer-energy-squeeze","geopolitical-shipping-shock"],"producerUse":"Weather sources convert into pasture days, water checks, hay demand, heat stress, and sale thresholds.","topSourceIds":["open-meteo-forecast","nasa-power","copernicus-cds","india-imd","noaa-cpc","world-bank-climate"]},"graphCounts":{"relatedSourceFamilies":9,"sourceGraphEdges":9,"historicalDrivers":8,"scenarios":8,"geoMarketNodes":4,"decisionEvidenceCount":66}}]}