{"name":"Cattle Market Pulse weekly intelligence","description":"Region-filtered weekly cattle, dairy, feed, weather, disease, trade, and farm-market intelligence. Each issue combines market moves, producer actions, scenarios, historical patterns, local market boards, decision traces, and citable public evidence.","generatedAt":"2026-06-06T23:05:22.251Z","snapshotGeneratedAt":"2026-06-06T11:33:23.605Z","snapshotWindow":{"startDate":"2026-05-28","endDate":"2026-06-03"},"updateCadence":"weekly","isAccessibleForFree":true,"canonicalUrl":"https://cattleweightestimation.com/market-pulse/weekly-intelligence.json","filters":{"region":"north-america","sector":"all","lang":"en","limit":4},"summary":{"issues":1,"marketMoves":4,"producerActions":5,"scenarios":5,"historicalPatterns":5,"localBoards":5,"decisionTraces":6,"liveObservations":617,"liveDriverImpacts":614,"marketEvents":189,"causalPaths":160,"liveConnectorFamilies":43,"sourceDiscoveryTargets":4017},"queryExamples":["https://cattleweightestimation.com/market-pulse/weekly-intelligence.json?region=north-america&sector=beef&lang=en","https://cattleweightestimation.com/market-pulse/weekly-intelligence.json?region=latin-america&sector=dairy&lang=es","https://cattleweightestimation.com/market-pulse/weekly-intelligence.json?region=latin-america&sector=feed&lang=pt&limit=12"],"issue":{"id":"weekly-intelligence-north-america-all-en","type":"weekly-market-intelligence","title":"North America Weekly market intelligence","subtitle":"Market moves, scenarios, history, local boards, and producer decisions to review this week.","locale":"en","regionId":"north-america","regionName":"North America","sector":"all","issueDate":"2026-06-06","generatedAt":"2026-06-06T23:05:22.251Z","snapshotGeneratedAt":"2026-06-06T11:33:23.605Z","snapshotWindow":{"startDate":"2026-05-28","endDate":"2026-06-03"},"weekWindow":{"startDate":"2026-05-28","endDate":"2026-06-03"},"updateCadence":"weekly","isAccessibleForFree":true,"canonicalDataUrl":"https://cattleweightestimation.com/market-pulse/weekly-intelligence.json?region=north-america&sector=all&lang=en","canonicalMarkdownUrl":"https://cattleweightestimation.com/market-pulse/weekly-intelligence.md?region=north-america&sector=all&lang=en","summary":{"marketMoves":4,"producerActions":5,"scenarios":5,"historicalPatterns":5,"localBoards":5,"decisionTraces":6,"sourceGraphEdges":9,"marketFeeds":5,"evidenceItems":424,"mappedMarketSeries":302037,"liveConnectorFamilies":43,"sourceDiscoveryTargets":4017},"leadRead":{"title":"U.S. pasture good/excellent changes the official crop progress read","body":"30 % in the 2026-06-01 USDA NASS Crop Progress; -12.0 points versus last year. This is an official supply, feed, dairy, or pasture signal to read before treating local prices as isolated. Feed coverage, hay buying, pasture carrying days, local basis, feeder bids, and whether extra retained weight still pays.","producerAction":"Move this NASS read into the feed plan now: count forage days, price hay and grain, then compare selling lighter cattle against buying another gain period.","sourceName":"USDA NASS QuickStats and ESMIS reports","sourceUrl":"https://esmis.nal.usda.gov/","confidence":91},"marketMoves":[{"id":"daily-impact-usda-nass-crop-progress-pasture-good-excellent-2026-06-01-official-report-impact","priority":"act","priorityLabel":"Act now","title":"U.S. pasture good/excellent changes the official crop progress read","whatChanged":"30 % in the 2026-06-01 USDA NASS Crop Progress; -12.0 points versus last year. This is an official supply, feed, dairy, or pasture signal to read before treating local prices as isolated.","whyItMatters":"Feed coverage, hay buying, pasture carrying days, local basis, feeder bids, and whether extra retained weight still pays.","producerAction":"Move this NASS read into the feed plan now: count forage days, price hay and grain, then compare selling lighter cattle against buying another gain period.","decisionWindow":"0-12 weeks","sourceName":"USDA NASS QuickStats and ESMIS reports","sourceUrl":"https://esmis.nal.usda.gov/","confidence":91,"evidenceKey":"impact:usda-nass-crop-progress-pasture-good-excellent-2026-06-01-official-report-impact","evidenceCount":7},{"id":"daily-impact-usda-nass-crop-progress-pasture-poor-very-poor-2026-06-01-official-report-impact","priority":"act","priorityLabel":"Act now","title":"U.S. pasture poor/very poor changes the official crop progress read","whatChanged":"42 % in the 2026-06-01 USDA NASS Crop Progress; 42.0% of selected-state pasture is poor or very poor. This is an official supply, feed, dairy, or pasture signal to read before treating local prices as isolated.","whyItMatters":"Feed coverage, hay buying, pasture carrying days, local basis, feeder bids, and whether extra retained weight still pays.","producerAction":"Move this NASS read into the feed plan now: count forage days, price hay and grain, then compare selling lighter cattle against buying another gain period.","decisionWindow":"0-12 weeks","sourceName":"USDA NASS QuickStats and ESMIS reports","sourceUrl":"https://esmis.nal.usda.gov/","confidence":91,"evidenceKey":"impact:usda-nass-crop-progress-pasture-poor-very-poor-2026-06-01-official-report-impact","evidenceCount":7},{"id":"daily-impact-open-meteo-water-demand-southern-plains-water-heat-impact","priority":"act","priorityLabel":"Act now","title":"Southern Plains 7-day water demand forecast: heat and water demand watch","whatChanged":"60.8 mm/week forecast for reference evapotranspiration. That is a forward signal for pasture drying, trough checks, shade, dairy comfort, and irrigated feed-crop pressure.","whyItMatters":"Water demand, shade and handling windows, dairy milk yield, pasture regrowth, hay substitution, irrigation demand, and feed-crop stress.","producerAction":"Move water checks, shade, transport timing, and dairy heat-abatement ahead of the forecast peak before assuming cattle will keep eating and gaining normally.","decisionWindow":"0-14 days","sourceName":"Open-Meteo global weather forecast","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","confidence":88,"evidenceKey":"impact:open-meteo-water-demand-southern-plains-water-heat-impact","evidenceCount":9},{"id":"daily-impact-cftc-cot-corn-hedge-margin-impact","priority":"act","priorityLabel":"Act now","title":"Corn COT positioning changes hedge and feed-risk timing","whatChanged":"6 % net long / open interest in the latest CFTC Commitments of Traders report. Feed futures positioning is a weekly early-warning signal for ration coverage and crop-feed exposure.","whyItMatters":"Delivered feed cost, ration coverage, feedlot breakeven, crop selling, hay substitution, and retained weight.","producerAction":"Use the COT feed read with local corn, hay, freight, and weather before delaying ration coverage or holding cattle for extra gain.","decisionWindow":"1-8 weeks","sourceName":"CFTC Commitments of Traders","sourceUrl":"https://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/index.htm","confidence":86,"evidenceKey":"impact:cftc-cot-corn-hedge-margin-impact","evidenceCount":7}],"producerChecklist":[{"id":"brief-action-daily-impact-usda-nass-crop-progress-pasture-poor-very-poor-2026-06-01-official-report-impact","priority":"act","priorityLabel":"Act now","title":"U.S. pasture poor/very poor changes the official crop progress read","action":"Move this NASS read into the feed plan now: count forage days, price hay and grain, then compare selling lighter cattle against buying another gain period.","why":"Feed coverage, hay buying, pasture carrying days, local basis, feeder bids, and whether extra retained weight still pays.","window":"0-12 weeks","sourceName":"USDA NASS QuickStats and ESMIS reports","sourceUrl":"https://esmis.nal.usda.gov/","confidence":91},{"id":"brief-action-daily-impact-open-meteo-water-demand-southern-plains-water-heat-impact","priority":"act","priorityLabel":"Act now","title":"Southern Plains 7-day water demand forecast: heat and water demand watch","action":"Move water checks, shade, transport timing, and dairy heat-abatement ahead of the forecast peak before assuming cattle will keep eating and gaining normally.","why":"Water demand, shade and handling windows, dairy milk yield, pasture regrowth, hay substitution, irrigation demand, and feed-crop stress.","window":"0-14 days","sourceName":"Open-Meteo global weather forecast","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","confidence":88},{"id":"brief-action-daily-impact-cftc-cot-corn-hedge-margin-impact","priority":"act","priorityLabel":"Act now","title":"Corn COT positioning changes hedge and feed-risk timing","action":"Use the COT feed read with local corn, hay, freight, and weather before delaying ration coverage or holding cattle for extra gain.","why":"Delivered feed cost, ration coverage, feedlot breakeven, crop selling, hay substitution, and retained weight.","window":"1-8 weeks","sourceName":"CFTC Commitments of Traders","sourceUrl":"https://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/index.htm","confidence":86},{"id":"brief-action-daily-impact-usda-esr-sorghum-weekly-exports-buyer-pull-impact","priority":"act","priorityLabel":"Act now","title":"Sorghum export pull weekly exports changed weekly buyer pull","action":"Check delivered feed and basis before buying feeders, holding cattle for more weight, or leaving protein needs uncovered.","why":"Corn, sorghum, and meal export pull can change domestic feed basis, ration coverage, feeder bids, and gain economics.","window":"Same week to 4 weeks","sourceName":"USDA Export Sales Reporting","sourceUrl":"https://apps.fas.usda.gov/export-sales/esrd1.html","confidence":84},{"id":"brief-action-daily-impact-usda-wasde-us-corn-stocks-monthly-balance-impact","priority":"act","priorityLabel":"Act now","title":"U.S. corn ending stocks changes the monthly feed and supply read","action":"Put the WASDE revision beside local corn, meal, hay, freight, and weather before buying feed, buying feeders, or holding cattle for more gain.","why":"Delivered feed cost, ration coverage, hay substitution, crop-to-cattle margin, feeder bids, and whether retained weight still pays.","window":"1 month to 1 year","sourceName":"USDA WASDE historical data","sourceUrl":"https://www.usda.gov/historical-wasde-report-data","confidence":90}],"scenarioBoard":[{"id":"feed-cost-spike","rank":1,"name":"Feed cost spike","sector":"feed","riskLevel":"severe","stressScore":4813,"currentMove":"Risk rises versus baseline.","producerDecision":"Recalculate whether the next gain period is still worth feeding.","evidenceItems":157,"sourceFamilies":23,"historicalDrivers":8},{"id":"crop-yield-shock","rank":2,"name":"Crop yield shock","sector":"crops","riskLevel":"severe","stressScore":3321,"currentMove":"Risk rises versus baseline.","producerDecision":"Decide whether to protect feed needs, price grain, adjust planting, or buy hay before local shortages are obvious.","evidenceItems":99,"sourceFamilies":20,"historicalDrivers":8},{"id":"export-disruption","rank":3,"name":"Export or border disruption","sector":"beef","riskLevel":"severe","stressScore":2296,"currentMove":"Risk rises versus baseline.","producerDecision":"Do not assume local bids are stable when export channels or border rules move.","evidenceItems":54,"sourceFamilies":17,"historicalDrivers":8},{"id":"drought-shock","rank":4,"name":"Drought tightens forage","sector":"feed","riskLevel":"severe","stressScore":2033,"currentMove":"Risk rises versus baseline.","producerDecision":"Check forage inventory, water, and the value of selling lighter cattle before everyone else is forced to.","evidenceItems":48,"sourceFamilies":14,"historicalDrivers":8},{"id":"milk-margin-squeeze","rank":5,"name":"Milk margin squeeze","sector":"dairy","riskLevel":"severe","stressScore":1402,"currentMove":"Risk rises versus baseline.","producerDecision":"Reprice feed, cull timing, and replacement animals before ration spend outruns milk value.","evidenceItems":27,"sourceFamilies":16,"historicalDrivers":8}],"historyToForecast":[{"id":"forecast-memory:north-america:pasture-stress-to-sale-runs:us-drought-monitor-southern-plains-d2-plus-forage-retention-impact","priority":"act","title":"Southern Plains severe drought footprint changes forage and retention risk","currentSignal":"52 % D2+ area in the latest U.S. Drought Monitor. D2+ is the official severe-drought footprint to read before assuming pasture, hay, and water pressure stay local.","pastPattern":"Pasture stress becomes sale pressure","forwardWindow":"2-16 weeks","forwardRead":"More calves and cull cows move earlier","producerAction":"Recount forage and hay inventory now, then compare selling lighter cattle against carrying them through a drought-priced gain period.","confidence":92},{"id":"forecast-memory:north-america:crop-balance-to-feed-margin:usda-nass-crop-progress-pasture-good-excellent-2026-06-01-official-report-impact","priority":"act","title":"U.S. pasture good/excellent changes the official crop progress read","currentSignal":"30 % in the 2026-06-01 USDA NASS Crop Progress; -12.0 points versus last year. This is an official supply, feed, dairy, or pasture signal to read before treating local prices as isolated.","pastPattern":"Crop balance becomes feed margin","forwardWindow":"1-18 months","forwardRead":"Backgrounding and finishing margins compress","producerAction":"Move this NASS read into the feed plan now: count forage days, price hay and grain, then compare selling lighter cattle against buying another gain period.","confidence":91},{"id":"forecast-memory:north-america:export-pull-to-local-basis:fas-psd-ca-beef-balance-sheet-impact","priority":"act","title":"Canada PSD beef supply and trade updates the long-cycle supply read","currentSignal":"1,315 thousand metric tons CWE in USDA FAS PSD for Canada. The balance sheet is +4.4% versus 2025, so read it against local prices instead of treating daily headlines as isolated events.","pastPattern":"Export pull changes local basis","forwardWindow":"1-12 weeks","forwardRead":"Processor bids widen or narrow by export access","producerAction":"Compare PSD beef supply and trade with local bids before deciding whether price weakness is temporary noise or real buyer leverage.","confidence":90},{"id":"forecast-memory:north-america:heat-load-to-milk-gain:open-meteo-water-demand-southern-plains-water-heat-impact","priority":"act","title":"Southern Plains 7-day water demand forecast: heat and water demand watch","currentSignal":"60.8 mm/week forecast for reference evapotranspiration. That is a forward signal for pasture drying, trough checks, shade, dairy comfort, and irrigated feed-crop pressure.","pastPattern":"Heat load becomes milk and weight-gain drag","forwardWindow":"Same day to 12 weeks","forwardRead":"Milk output and components weaken","producerAction":"Move water checks, shade, transport timing, and dairy heat-abatement ahead of the forecast peak before assuming cattle will keep eating and gaining normally.","confidence":88},{"id":"forecast-memory:north-america:positioning-to-hedge-margin:cftc-cot-live-cattle-hedge-margin-impact","priority":"act","title":"Live cattle COT positioning changes hedge and feed-risk timing","currentSignal":"34 % net long / open interest in the latest CFTC Commitments of Traders report. Cattle positioning is a weekly early-warning signal for hedge urgency, retained ownership, and basis risk.","pastPattern":"Futures positioning becomes hedge and margin pressure","forwardWindow":"1-8 weeks","forwardRead":"Hedge urgency rises before local bids fully reprice","producerAction":"Use the COT cattle read with local cash bids before holding unhedged cattle weight or assuming buyer leverage will stay unchanged.","confidence":88}],"localMarketBoard":[{"id":"united-states-dairy-belt","name":"United States dairy and processor belt","country":"United States","priority":"watch","priorityLabel":"Watch","marketRead":"United States dairy and processor belt combines risk 70, opportunity 83, 10 public layers, and 8 current signals.","topAction":"Use milk price, solids, feed cost, cull-cow flow, and processor demand before changing ration, culling, or replacement plans.","watchSignal":"Milk-feed spread, processor pull, dairy-beef supply, and replacement economics.","nextCheck":"Review before the next report, input buy, or weekly movement.","risk":70,"opportunity":83,"sourceFamilies":8},{"id":"united-states-pasture-basin","name":"United States pasture and water basin","country":"United States","priority":"watch","priorityLabel":"Watch","marketRead":"United States pasture and water basin combines risk 69, opportunity 83, 10 public layers, and 8 current signals.","topAction":"Use rainfall, heat, water, pasture, and forage signals before changing stocking rate, sale pressure, or supplement buying.","watchSignal":"Pasture recovery, water stress, heat load, hay availability, and forced-sale risk.","nextCheck":"Review before the next report, input buy, or weekly movement.","risk":69,"opportunity":83,"sourceFamilies":8},{"id":"united-states-trade-corridor","name":"United States trade and health corridor","country":"United States","priority":"act","priorityLabel":"Act now","marketRead":"United States trade and health corridor combines risk 68, opportunity 84, 10 public layers, and 8 current signals.","topAction":"Use export access, border movement, disease notices, freight, currency, and policy signals before committing volume.","watchSignal":"Destination concentration, sanitary access, port flow, border friction, and currency translation.","nextCheck":"Review before closing a sale, buying feed, moving animals, or committing volume today.","risk":68,"opportunity":84,"sourceFamilies":8},{"id":"united-states-feed-belt","name":"United States feed and crop belt","country":"United States","priority":"act","priorityLabel":"Act now","marketRead":"United States feed and crop belt combines risk 70, opportunity 84, 9 public layers, and 8 current signals.","topAction":"Use feed grain, hay, protein meal, crop progress, fuel, and credit signals before buying feed or holding weight longer.","watchSignal":"Delivered feed basis, crop yield risk, freight, diesel, and financing pressure.","nextCheck":"Review before closing a sale, buying feed, moving animals, or committing volume today.","risk":70,"opportunity":84,"sourceFamilies":8},{"id":"canada-dairy-belt","name":"Canada dairy and processor belt","country":"Canada","priority":"watch","priorityLabel":"Watch","marketRead":"Canada dairy and processor belt combines risk 67, opportunity 83, 10 public layers, and 8 current signals.","topAction":"Use milk price, solids, feed cost, cull-cow flow, and processor demand before changing ration, culling, or replacement plans.","watchSignal":"Milk-feed spread, processor pull, dairy-beef supply, and replacement economics.","nextCheck":"Review before the next report, input buy, or weekly movement.","risk":67,"opportunity":83,"sourceFamilies":8}],"decisionTraces":[{"id":"path-north-america-event-fao-newsroom-rss-strait-of-hormuz-time-running-out-to-avert-global-food-security-cri","title":"North America: Strait of Hormuz: Time running out to avert global food security crisis, FAO warns","currentSignal":"FAO Newsroom published a war, sanctions, or shipping-route item. Read it as a delivered feed, fertilizer, fuel, freight, and buyer-access signal.","howItAffects":"Early event awareness before official reports update: Buyer access, disease movement risk, export demand, feed input cost, weather pressure, and local sale timing","pastPattern":"Same day to 3 years history usually shows up in Same week to 12 months: Delivered feed and fertilizer become more expensive or less reliable Local basis can diverge from headline futures or export values Local feed substitution, earlier sale timing, or destination hedging becomes valuable","forwardScenario":"War and shipping disruption: Conflict, sanctions, canal disruption, or route risk changes grain, fertilizer, fuel, freight, and protein trade costs.","producerDecision":"Check delivered feed, fertilizer, fuel, freight, and route exposure before holding cattle longer or locking crop-input purchases.","source":{"id":"fao-newsroom","name":"FAO Newsroom","category":"Regional","officialUrl":"https://www.fao.org/newsroom/detail/strait-of-hormuz--time-running-out-to-avert-global-food-security-crisis--fao-warns/en"},"confidence":82,"severity":"high"},{"id":"path-north-america-event-fao-newsroom-rss-strait-of-hormuz-conflict-threatens-global-food-prices-as-fao-warns","title":"North America: Strait of Hormuz conflict threatens global food prices as FAO warns time is running out","currentSignal":"FAO Newsroom published a war, sanctions, or shipping-route item. Read it as a delivered feed, fertilizer, fuel, freight, and buyer-access signal.","howItAffects":"Early event awareness before official reports update: Buyer access, disease movement risk, export demand, feed input cost, weather pressure, and local sale timing","pastPattern":"Same day to 3 years history usually shows up in Same week to 12 months: Delivered feed and fertilizer become more expensive or less reliable Local basis can diverge from headline futures or export values Local feed substitution, earlier sale timing, or destination hedging becomes valuable","forwardScenario":"War and shipping disruption: Conflict, sanctions, canal disruption, or route risk changes grain, fertilizer, fuel, freight, and protein trade costs.","producerDecision":"Check delivered feed, fertilizer, fuel, freight, and route exposure before holding cattle longer or locking crop-input purchases.","source":{"id":"fao-newsroom","name":"FAO Newsroom","category":"Regional","officialUrl":"https://www.fao.org/newsroom/detail/strait-of-hormuz-conflict-threatens-global-food-prices-as-fao-warns-time-is-running-out/en"},"confidence":82,"severity":"high"},{"id":"path-north-america-event-fao-newsroom-rss-strait-of-hormuz-crisis-fertilizer-scarcity-will-affect-next-harves","title":"North America: Strait of Hormuz crisis: Fertilizer scarcity will affect next harvests and food supplies, FAO warns","currentSignal":"FAO Newsroom published a war, sanctions, or shipping-route item. Read it as a delivered feed, fertilizer, fuel, freight, and buyer-access signal.","howItAffects":"Early event awareness before official reports update: Buyer access, disease movement risk, export demand, feed input cost, weather pressure, and local sale timing","pastPattern":"Same day to 3 years history usually shows up in Same week to 12 months: Delivered feed and fertilizer become more expensive or less reliable Local basis can diverge from headline futures or export values Local feed substitution, earlier sale timing, or destination hedging becomes valuable","forwardScenario":"War and shipping disruption: Conflict, sanctions, canal disruption, or route risk changes grain, fertilizer, fuel, freight, and protein trade costs.","producerDecision":"Check delivered feed, fertilizer, fuel, freight, and route exposure before holding cattle longer or locking crop-input purchases.","source":{"id":"fao-newsroom","name":"FAO Newsroom","category":"Regional","officialUrl":"https://www.fao.org/newsroom/detail/strait-of-hormuz-crisis--fertilizer-scarcity-will-affect-next-harvests-and-food-supplies--fao-warns/en"},"confidence":82,"severity":"high"},{"id":"path-north-america-impact-open-meteo-water-demand-southern-plains-water-heat-impact","title":"North America: Southern Plains 7-day water demand forecast: heat and water demand watch","currentSignal":"Water demand, shade and handling windows, dairy milk yield, pasture regrowth, hay substitution, irrigation demand, and feed-crop stress.","howItAffects":"Forward pasture, heat, water, and forage pressure: Sale timing, feed coverage, water checks, milk yield, weight gain, and crop-feed risk","pastPattern":"30-120 days history usually shows up in 2-16 weeks: More calves and cull cows move earlier Replacement animals face discount risk in dry regions Feed cost can erase the value of extra gain","forwardScenario":"Drought tightens forage: Pasture weakens, hay gets tighter, and more cows or calves can move earlier than planned.","producerDecision":"Move water checks, shade, transport timing, and dairy heat-abatement ahead of the forecast peak before assuming cattle will keep eating and gaining normally.","source":{"id":"open-meteo-forecast","name":"Open-Meteo global weather forecast","category":"Weather","officialUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs"},"confidence":88,"severity":"high"},{"id":"path-north-america-impact-usda-esr-sorghum-weekly-exports-buyer-pull-impact","title":"North America: Sorghum export pull weekly exports changed weekly buyer pull","currentSignal":"Corn, sorghum, and meal export pull can change domestic feed basis, ration coverage, feeder bids, and gain economics.","howItAffects":"Export buyer pull before customs data confirms it: Beef cutout support, grain basis, local processor bids, and feed ingredient demand","pastPattern":"90 days to 5 years history usually shows up in 1-18 months: Backgrounding and finishing margins compress Dairy ration spend rises before cull flow changes Crop producers may gain price opportunity while livestock producers face cost risk","forwardScenario":"Feed cost spike: Corn, hay, soybean meal, fuel, or freight costs rise faster than cattle value.","producerDecision":"Check delivered feed and basis before buying feeders, holding cattle for more weight, or leaving protein needs uncovered.","source":{"id":"usda-esr","name":"USDA Export Sales Reporting","category":"Trade","officialUrl":"https://apps.fas.usda.gov/export-sales/esrd1.html"},"confidence":84,"severity":"high"}],"evidenceMap":{"sourceFamilies":[{"id":"usda-nass","name":"USDA NASS QuickStats and ESMIS reports","category":"Inventory","officialUrl":"https://esmis.nal.usda.gov/","cadence":"Weekly, monthly, quarterly, annual","coverage":"U.S. cattle inventory, cattle on feed, slaughter, milk production, crop progress, pasture condition, prices, and livestock surveys","producerUse":"cattle inventory, pasture condition, corn production, hay stocks","citation":"USDA NASS QuickStats and ESMIS reports: U.S. cattle inventory, cattle on feed, slaughter, milk production, crop progress, pasture condition, prices, and livestock surveys. Official URL: https://esmis.nal.usda.gov/"},{"id":"open-meteo-forecast","name":"Open-Meteo global weather forecast","category":"Weather","officialUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","cadence":"Daily and hourly","coverage":"Global no-key weather forecast API for daily temperature, precipitation, wind, and agricultural weather by coordinate","producerUse":"7-day rainfall forecast, temperature forecast, apparent heat stress, reference evapotranspiration","citation":"Open-Meteo global weather forecast: Global no-key weather forecast API for daily temperature, precipitation, wind, and agricultural weather by coordinate. Official URL: https://open-meteo.com/en/docs"},{"id":"cftc-cot","name":"CFTC Commitments of Traders","category":"Futures","officialUrl":"https://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/index.htm","cadence":"Weekly","coverage":"U.S. futures and options positioning, including livestock and feed contracts","producerUse":"live cattle positioning, feeder cattle positioning, corn positioning","citation":"CFTC Commitments of Traders: U.S. futures and options positioning, including livestock and feed contracts. Official URL: https://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/index.htm"},{"id":"usda-esr","name":"USDA Export Sales Reporting","category":"Trade","officialUrl":"https://apps.fas.usda.gov/export-sales/esrd1.html","cadence":"Weekly","coverage":"Weekly U.S. export sales and shipments for beef, corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, and feed ingredients","producerUse":"export commitments, weekly shipments, buyer destination, crop demand","citation":"USDA Export Sales Reporting: Weekly U.S. export sales and shipments for beef, corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, and feed ingredients. Official URL: https://apps.fas.usda.gov/export-sales/esrd1.html"},{"id":"usda-wasde","name":"USDA WASDE historical data","category":"Crops","officialUrl":"https://www.usda.gov/historical-wasde-report-data","cadence":"Monthly","coverage":"World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates for feed grains, oilseeds, cotton, livestock, dairy, and global balance sheets","producerUse":"corn balance sheet, soybean balance sheet, feed use, dairy forecasts","citation":"USDA WASDE historical data: World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates for feed grains, oilseeds, cotton, livestock, dairy, and global balance sheets. Official URL: https://www.usda.gov/historical-wasde-report-data"}],"sourceGraph":[{"id":"nass-inventory-to-cycle","sourceId":"usda-nass","sourceName":"USDA NASS QuickStats and ESMIS reports","signal":"Inventory, placements, pasture, hay, crop data","driver":"Herd cycle, feeder supply, and feed availability","affects":"Replacement strategy, retained heifers, and forward feeder supply","producerDecision":"Decide whether scarce replacement animals are worth keeping or selling.","lag":"1 month to 1 year","confidence":86},{"id":"drought-to-retention","sourceId":"us-drought-monitor","sourceName":"U.S. Drought Monitor","signal":"Drought class, weekly narrative, pasture stress","driver":"Forage pressure and early liquidation risk","affects":"Cow retention, hay demand, calf movement, and replacement price","producerDecision":"Compare forage inventory against the value of carrying cattle longer.","lag":"1-4 weeks","confidence":88},{"id":"feed-energy-to-breakeven","sourceId":"world-bank-pink-sheet","sourceName":"World Bank commodity prices","signal":"Beef, energy, fertilizer, and feed commodity prices","driver":"Feed, fertilizer, freight, and pasture input cost","affects":"Backgrounding breakeven, finishing margin, hay cost, and stocking decision","producerDecision":"Reprice the next 50 lb or 25 kg before buying feed or delaying sales.","lag":"1-6 weeks","confidence":80},{"id":"open-meteo-forecast-to-forward-forage","sourceId":"open-meteo-forecast","sourceName":"Open-Meteo global weather forecast","signal":"7-day precipitation and temperature forecast by geo node","driver":"Forward pasture, heat, water, and forage pressure","affects":"Sale timing, feed coverage, water checks, milk yield, weight gain, and crop-feed risk","producerDecision":"Use the next-week rain and heat forecast before moving cattle, buying hay, changing supplement, or holding weight.","lag":"0-14 days","confidence":78},{"id":"nasa-weather-to-heat","sourceId":"nasa-power","sourceName":"NASA POWER","signal":"Temperature, humidity, wind, rainfall by coordinate","driver":"Heat load, water stress, and pasture regrowth","affects":"Gain, intake, fertility, death loss risk, and shade or water planning","producerDecision":"Adjust transport, feeding time, stocking rate, and water checks before stress peaks.","lag":"0-10 days","confidence":83},{"id":"cftc-positioning-to-hedge-feed-risk","sourceId":"cftc-cot","sourceName":"CFTC Commitments of Traders","signal":"Managed money, commercial, and open-interest positioning in live cattle, feeder cattle, corn, and soybean meal","driver":"Speculative positioning and commercial hedge pressure","affects":"Hedge timing, basis risk, feeder bids, feed coverage, and retained-ownership risk","producerDecision":"Use COT positioning as a weekly stress check before leaving cattle, corn, or soybean-meal exposure unprotected.","lag":"Same week to 8 weeks","confidence":80},{"id":"wasde-feed-balance-to-cattle-margin","sourceId":"usda-wasde","sourceName":"USDA WASDE historical data","signal":"Corn, soybean meal, hay, and dairy/feed balance sheets","driver":"Forward feed availability and ration cost","affects":"Backgrounding margin, finishing days, milk-feed spread, and crop planting incentives","producerDecision":"Use monthly balance-sheet revisions to decide whether to lock feed, sell lighter, or carry cattle longer.","lag":"1-12 months","confidence":87},{"id":"export-sales-to-buyer-pull","sourceId":"usda-esr","sourceName":"USDA Export Sales Reporting","signal":"Weekly export commitments and shipments by commodity and destination","driver":"Export buyer pull before customs data confirms it","affects":"Beef cutout support, grain basis, local processor bids, and feed ingredient demand","producerDecision":"Watch export-sales acceleration as an early signal for stronger cash bids or tighter feed.","lag":"1-5 weeks","confidence":83}],"historicalDrivers":[{"id":"pasture-stress-to-sale-runs","driver":"Pasture stress becomes sale pressure","lookbackWindow":"30-120 days","forwardWindow":"2-16 weeks","leadingSignals":["Soil moisture drops below seasonal median","Pasture condition ratings deteriorate","Hay and supplement quotes firm before auction volume rises"],"forwardEffects":["More calves and cull cows move earlier","Replacement animals face discount risk in dry regions","Feed cost can erase the value of extra gain"],"producerDecision":"Move from calendar-based selling to forage-days and feed-margin selling.","confidence":86},{"id":"crop-balance-to-feed-margin","driver":"Crop balance becomes feed margin","lookbackWindow":"90 days to 5 years","forwardWindow":"1-18 months","leadingSignals":["Acreage, crop progress, and soil moisture shift together","Balance-sheet revisions tighten ending stocks","Rail, freight, or port pressure widens local basis"],"forwardEffects":["Backgrounding and finishing margins compress","Dairy ration spend rises before cull flow changes","Crop producers may gain price opportunity while livestock producers face cost risk"],"producerDecision":"Use the crop balance to decide feed coverage, hay buying, grain pricing, and stocking rate.","confidence":84},{"id":"heat-load-to-milk-gain","driver":"Heat load becomes milk and weight-gain drag","lookbackWindow":"7-90 days","forwardWindow":"Same day to 12 weeks","leadingSignals":["Temperature-humidity pressure rises for multiple days","Water demand and night cooling fail to reset","Feed intake falls before production reports update"],"forwardEffects":["Milk output and components weaken","Finishing cattle gain less efficiently","Water, shade, and ration timing become margin controls"],"producerDecision":"Move heat mitigation and ration timing ahead of sale-weight or milk-output assumptions.","confidence":82},{"id":"positioning-to-hedge-margin","driver":"Futures positioning becomes hedge and margin pressure","lookbackWindow":"4-52 weeks","forwardWindow":"1-8 weeks","leadingSignals":["Managed money exits long cattle exposure","Corn or soybean-meal shorts cover quickly","Open interest changes while cash bids lag"],"forwardEffects":["Hedge urgency rises before local bids fully reprice","Feed coverage becomes more valuable when feed shorts unwind","Retained ownership gets riskier when cattle longs liquidate"],"producerDecision":"Check COT before deciding to hold unhedged weight, delay feed coverage, or assume today’s basis will still be there next month.","confidence":78}],"decisionChains":[{"id":"path-north-america-event-fao-newsroom-rss-strait-of-hormuz-time-running-out-to-avert-global-food-security-cri","sourceId":"fao-newsroom","sourceName":"FAO Newsroom","sourceUrl":"https://www.fao.org/newsroom/detail/strait-of-hormuz--time-running-out-to-avert-global-food-security-crisis--fao-warns/en","title":"North America: Strait of Hormuz: Time running out to avert global food security crisis, FAO warns","currentSignal":"FAO Newsroom published a war, sanctions, or shipping-route item. Read it as a delivered feed, fertilizer, fuel, freight, and buyer-access signal.","pastPattern":"Same day to 3 years history usually shows up in Same week to 12 months: Delivered feed and fertilizer become more expensive or less reliable Local basis can diverge from headline futures or export values Local feed substitution, earlier sale timing, or destination hedging becomes valuable","forwardScenario":"War and shipping disruption: Conflict, sanctions, canal disruption, or route risk changes grain, fertilizer, fuel, freight, and protein trade costs.","producerDecision":"Check delivered feed, fertilizer, fuel, freight, and route exposure before holding cattle longer or locking crop-input purchases.","severity":"high","confidence":82,"sectors":["feed","beef","dairy"],"scenarioIds":["geopolitical-shipping-shock","port-freight-shock","feed-cost-spike"],"historicalDriverIds":["geopolitical-shock-to-feed-freight","logistics-to-local-basis"],"sourceGraphEdgeIds":["gdelt-news-to-market-event-risk","eia-diesel-to-freight-feed-cost","feed-energy-to-breakeven"]},{"id":"path-north-america-event-fao-newsroom-rss-strait-of-hormuz-conflict-threatens-global-food-prices-as-fao-warns","sourceId":"fao-newsroom","sourceName":"FAO Newsroom","sourceUrl":"https://www.fao.org/newsroom/detail/strait-of-hormuz-conflict-threatens-global-food-prices-as-fao-warns-time-is-running-out/en","title":"North America: Strait of Hormuz conflict threatens global food prices as FAO warns time is running out","currentSignal":"FAO Newsroom published a war, sanctions, or shipping-route item. Read it as a delivered feed, fertilizer, fuel, freight, and buyer-access signal.","pastPattern":"Same day to 3 years history usually shows up in Same week to 12 months: Delivered feed and fertilizer become more expensive or less reliable Local basis can diverge from headline futures or export values Local feed substitution, earlier sale timing, or destination hedging becomes valuable","forwardScenario":"War and shipping disruption: Conflict, sanctions, canal disruption, or route risk changes grain, fertilizer, fuel, freight, and protein trade costs.","producerDecision":"Check delivered feed, fertilizer, fuel, freight, and route exposure before holding cattle longer or locking crop-input purchases.","severity":"high","confidence":82,"sectors":["feed","beef","dairy"],"scenarioIds":["geopolitical-shipping-shock","port-freight-shock","feed-cost-spike"],"historicalDriverIds":["geopolitical-shock-to-feed-freight","logistics-to-local-basis"],"sourceGraphEdgeIds":["gdelt-news-to-market-event-risk","eia-diesel-to-freight-feed-cost","feed-energy-to-breakeven"]},{"id":"path-north-america-event-fao-newsroom-rss-strait-of-hormuz-crisis-fertilizer-scarcity-will-affect-next-harves","sourceId":"fao-newsroom","sourceName":"FAO Newsroom","sourceUrl":"https://www.fao.org/newsroom/detail/strait-of-hormuz-crisis--fertilizer-scarcity-will-affect-next-harvests-and-food-supplies--fao-warns/en","title":"North America: Strait of Hormuz crisis: Fertilizer scarcity will affect next harvests and food supplies, FAO warns","currentSignal":"FAO Newsroom published a war, sanctions, or shipping-route item. Read it as a delivered feed, fertilizer, fuel, freight, and buyer-access signal.","pastPattern":"Same day to 3 years history usually shows up in Same week to 12 months: Delivered feed and fertilizer become more expensive or less reliable Local basis can diverge from headline futures or export values Local feed substitution, earlier sale timing, or destination hedging becomes valuable","forwardScenario":"War and shipping disruption: Conflict, sanctions, canal disruption, or route risk changes grain, fertilizer, fuel, freight, and protein trade costs.","producerDecision":"Check delivered feed, fertilizer, fuel, freight, and route exposure before holding cattle longer or locking crop-input purchases.","severity":"high","confidence":82,"sectors":["feed","crops","beef","dairy"],"scenarioIds":["geopolitical-shipping-shock","port-freight-shock","feed-cost-spike"],"historicalDriverIds":["geopolitical-shock-to-feed-freight","logistics-to-local-basis"],"sourceGraphEdgeIds":["gdelt-news-to-market-event-risk","eia-diesel-to-freight-feed-cost","feed-energy-to-breakeven"]},{"id":"path-north-america-impact-open-meteo-water-demand-southern-plains-water-heat-impact","sourceId":"open-meteo-forecast","sourceName":"Open-Meteo global weather forecast","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","title":"North America: Southern Plains 7-day water demand forecast: heat and water demand watch","currentSignal":"Water demand, shade and handling windows, dairy milk yield, pasture regrowth, hay substitution, irrigation demand, and feed-crop stress.","pastPattern":"30-120 days history usually shows up in 2-16 weeks: More calves and cull cows move earlier Replacement animals face discount risk in dry regions Feed cost can erase the value of extra gain","forwardScenario":"Drought tightens forage: Pasture weakens, hay gets tighter, and more cows or calves can move earlier than planned.","producerDecision":"Move water checks, shade, transport timing, and dairy heat-abatement ahead of the forecast peak before assuming cattle will keep eating and gaining normally.","severity":"high","confidence":88,"sectors":["beef","dairy","feed","crops"],"scenarioIds":["drought-shock","milk-margin-squeeze","crop-yield-shock","feed-cost-spike"],"historicalDriverIds":["pasture-stress-to-sale-runs","heat-load-to-milk-gain","crop-balance-to-feed-margin"],"sourceGraphEdgeIds":["open-meteo-forecast-to-forward-forage","nasa-weather-to-heat"]},{"id":"path-north-america-impact-usda-esr-sorghum-weekly-exports-buyer-pull-impact","sourceId":"usda-esr","sourceName":"USDA Export Sales Reporting","sourceUrl":"https://apps.fas.usda.gov/export-sales/esrd1.html","title":"North America: Sorghum export pull weekly exports changed weekly buyer pull","currentSignal":"Corn, sorghum, and meal export pull can change domestic feed basis, ration coverage, feeder bids, and gain economics.","pastPattern":"90 days to 5 years history usually shows up in 1-18 months: Backgrounding and finishing margins compress Dairy ration spend rises before cull flow changes Crop producers may gain price opportunity while livestock producers face cost risk","forwardScenario":"Feed cost spike: Corn, hay, soybean meal, fuel, or freight costs rise faster than cattle value.","producerDecision":"Check delivered feed and basis before buying feeders, holding cattle for more weight, or leaving protein needs uncovered.","severity":"high","confidence":84,"sectors":["feed","crops","beef","dairy"],"scenarioIds":["feed-cost-spike","crop-yield-shock","export-disruption"],"historicalDriverIds":["crop-balance-to-feed-margin"],"sourceGraphEdgeIds":["export-sales-to-buyer-pull","fas-trade-to-basis","wasde-feed-balance-to-cattle-margin","feed-energy-to-breakeven"]},{"id":"path-north-america-impact-usda-nass-crop-progress-pasture-good-excellent-2026-06-01-official-report-impact","sourceId":"usda-nass","sourceName":"USDA NASS QuickStats and ESMIS reports","sourceUrl":"https://esmis.nal.usda.gov/","title":"North America: U.S. pasture good/excellent changes the official crop progress read","currentSignal":"Feed coverage, hay buying, pasture carrying days, local basis, feeder bids, and whether extra retained weight still pays.","pastPattern":"30-120 days history usually shows up in 2-16 weeks: More calves and cull cows move earlier Replacement animals face discount risk in dry regions Feed cost can erase the value of extra gain","forwardScenario":"Drought tightens forage: Pasture weakens, hay gets tighter, and more cows or calves can move earlier than planned.","producerDecision":"Move this NASS read into the feed plan now: count forage days, price hay and grain, then compare selling lighter cattle against buying another gain period.","severity":"high","confidence":91,"sectors":["feed","crops","beef","dairy"],"scenarioIds":["drought-shock","feed-cost-spike"],"historicalDriverIds":["pasture-stress-to-sale-runs","crop-balance-to-feed-margin"],"sourceGraphEdgeIds":["nass-inventory-to-cycle","drought-to-retention","feed-energy-to-breakeven"]}]},"weeklyBlocks":{"subject":"North America Weekly market intelligence","preheader":"Market moves, scenarios, history, local boards, and producer decisions to review this week.","sections":[{"heading":"What changed this week","items":[{"title":"U.S. pasture good/excellent changes the official crop progress read","body":"30 % in the 2026-06-01 USDA NASS Crop Progress; -12.0 points versus last year. This is an official supply, feed, dairy, or pasture signal to read before treating local prices as isolated.","action":"Move this NASS read into the feed plan now: count forage days, price hay and grain, then compare selling lighter cattle against buying another gain period.","sourceName":"USDA NASS QuickStats and ESMIS reports","sourceUrl":"https://esmis.nal.usda.gov/"},{"title":"U.S. pasture poor/very poor changes the official crop progress read","body":"42 % in the 2026-06-01 USDA NASS Crop Progress; 42.0% of selected-state pasture is poor or very poor. This is an official supply, feed, dairy, or pasture signal to read before treating local prices as isolated.","action":"Move this NASS read into the feed plan now: count forage days, price hay and grain, then compare selling lighter cattle against buying another gain period.","sourceName":"USDA NASS QuickStats and ESMIS reports","sourceUrl":"https://esmis.nal.usda.gov/"},{"title":"Southern Plains 7-day water demand forecast: heat and water demand watch","body":"60.8 mm/week forecast for reference evapotranspiration. That is a forward signal for pasture drying, trough checks, shade, dairy comfort, and irrigated feed-crop pressure.","action":"Move water checks, shade, transport timing, and dairy heat-abatement ahead of the forecast peak before assuming cattle will keep eating and gaining normally.","sourceName":"Open-Meteo global weather forecast","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs"},{"title":"Corn COT positioning changes hedge and feed-risk timing","body":"6 % net long / open interest in the latest CFTC Commitments of Traders report. Feed futures positioning is a weekly early-warning signal for ration coverage and crop-feed exposure.","action":"Use the COT feed read with local corn, hay, freight, and weather before delaying ration coverage or holding cattle for extra gain.","sourceName":"CFTC Commitments of Traders","sourceUrl":"https://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/index.htm"}]},{"heading":"Scenarios to watch","items":[{"title":"Feed cost spike","body":"Risk rises versus baseline.","action":"Recalculate whether the next gain period is still worth feeding."},{"title":"Crop yield shock","body":"Risk rises versus baseline.","action":"Decide whether to protect feed needs, price grain, adjust planting, or buy hay before local shortages are obvious."},{"title":"Export or border disruption","body":"Risk rises versus baseline.","action":"Do not assume local bids are stable when export channels or border rules move."},{"title":"Drought tightens forage","body":"Risk rises versus baseline.","action":"Check forage inventory, water, and the value of selling lighter cattle before everyone else is forced to."}]},{"heading":"Past pattern -> next move","items":[{"title":"Southern Plains severe drought footprint changes forage and retention risk","body":"Pasture stress becomes sale pressure","action":"Recount forage and hay inventory now, then compare selling lighter cattle against carrying them through a drought-priced gain period."},{"title":"U.S. pasture good/excellent changes the official crop progress read","body":"Crop balance becomes feed margin","action":"Move this NASS read into the feed plan now: count forage days, price hay and grain, then compare selling lighter cattle against buying another gain period."},{"title":"Canada PSD beef supply and trade updates the long-cycle supply read","body":"Export pull changes local basis","action":"Compare PSD beef supply and trade with local bids before deciding whether price weakness is temporary noise or real buyer leverage."},{"title":"Southern Plains 7-day water demand forecast: heat and water demand watch","body":"Heat load becomes milk and weight-gain drag","action":"Move water checks, shade, transport timing, and dairy heat-abatement ahead of the forecast peak before assuming cattle will keep eating and gaining normally."}]}]},"shareableMarkdown":"# North America Weekly market intelligence\n\nMarket moves, scenarios, history, local boards, and producer decisions to review this week.\n\n## Lead read\n\nU.S. pasture good/excellent changes the official crop progress read\n\n30 % in the 2026-06-01 USDA NASS Crop Progress; -12.0 points versus last year. This is an official supply, feed, dairy, or pasture signal to read before treating local prices as isolated. Feed coverage, hay buying, pasture carrying days, local basis, feeder bids, and whether extra retained weight still pays.\n\nDecision: Move this NASS read into the feed plan now: count forage days, price hay and grain, then compare selling lighter cattle against buying another gain period.\n\nSource: USDA NASS QuickStats and ESMIS reports (https://esmis.nal.usda.gov/)\n\n## What changed this week\n\n- U.S. pasture good/excellent changes the official crop progress read: What changed this week: 30 % in the 2026-06-01 USDA NASS Crop Progress; -12.0 points versus last year. This is an official supply, feed, dairy, or pasture signal to read before treating local prices as isolated. Decision: Move this NASS read into the feed plan now: count forage days, price hay and grain, then compare selling lighter cattle against buying another gain period. Source: USDA NASS QuickStats and ESMIS reports (https://esmis.nal.usda.gov/).\n- U.S. pasture poor/very poor changes the official crop progress read: What changed this week: 42 % in the 2026-06-01 USDA NASS Crop Progress; 42.0% of selected-state pasture is poor or very poor. This is an official supply, feed, dairy, or pasture signal to read before treating local prices as isolated. Decision: Move this NASS read into the feed plan now: count forage days, price hay and grain, then compare selling lighter cattle against buying another gain period. Source: USDA NASS QuickStats and ESMIS reports (https://esmis.nal.usda.gov/).\n- Southern Plains 7-day water demand forecast: heat and water demand watch: What changed this week: 60.8 mm/week forecast for reference evapotranspiration. That is a forward signal for pasture drying, trough checks, shade, dairy comfort, and irrigated feed-crop pressure. Decision: Move water checks, shade, transport timing, and dairy heat-abatement ahead of the forecast peak before assuming cattle will keep eating and gaining normally. Source: Open-Meteo global weather forecast (https://open-meteo.com/en/docs).\n- Corn COT positioning changes hedge and feed-risk timing: What changed this week: 6 % net long / open interest in the latest CFTC Commitments of Traders report. Feed futures positioning is a weekly early-warning signal for ration coverage and crop-feed exposure. Decision: Use the COT feed read with local corn, hay, freight, and weather before delaying ration coverage or holding cattle for extra gain. Source: CFTC Commitments of Traders (https://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/index.htm).\n\n## Scenarios to watch\n\n- Feed cost spike: Risk rises versus baseline. Decision: Recalculate whether the next gain period is still worth feeding.\n- Crop yield shock: Risk rises versus baseline. Decision: Decide whether to protect feed needs, price grain, adjust planting, or buy hay before local shortages are obvious.\n- Export or border disruption: Risk rises versus baseline. Decision: Do not assume local bids are stable when export channels or border rules move.\n- Drought tightens forage: Risk rises versus baseline. Decision: Check forage inventory, water, and the value of selling lighter cattle before everyone else is forced to.\n\n## Past pattern -> next move\n\n- Southern Plains severe drought footprint changes forage and retention risk: Pasture stress becomes sale pressure. Decision: Recount forage and hay inventory now, then compare selling lighter cattle against carrying them through a drought-priced gain period.\n- U.S. pasture good/excellent changes the official crop progress read: Crop balance becomes feed margin. Decision: Move this NASS read into the feed plan now: count forage days, price hay and grain, then compare selling lighter cattle against buying another gain period.\n- Canada PSD beef supply and trade updates the long-cycle supply read: Export pull changes local basis. Decision: Compare PSD beef supply and trade with local bids before deciding whether price weakness is temporary noise or real buyer leverage.\n- Southern Plains 7-day water demand forecast: heat and water demand watch: Heat load becomes milk and weight-gain drag. Decision: Move water checks, shade, transport timing, and dairy heat-abatement ahead of the forecast peak before assuming cattle will keep eating and gaining normally.\n\n## Local markets\n\n- United States dairy and processor belt, United States: Milk-feed spread, processor pull, dairy-beef supply, and replacement economics. Decision: Use milk price, solids, feed cost, cull-cow flow, and processor demand before changing ration, culling, or replacement plans.\n- United States pasture and water basin, United States: Pasture recovery, water stress, heat load, hay availability, and forced-sale risk. Decision: Use rainfall, heat, water, pasture, and forage signals before changing stocking rate, sale pressure, or supplement buying.\n- United States trade and health corridor, United States: Destination concentration, sanitary access, port flow, border friction, and currency translation. Decision: Use export access, border movement, disease notices, freight, currency, and policy signals before committing volume.\n- United States feed and crop belt, United States: Delivered feed basis, crop yield risk, freight, diesel, and financing pressure. Decision: Use feed grain, hay, protein meal, crop progress, fuel, and credit signals before buying feed or holding weight longer.\n\n## Producer checklist\n\n- 0-12 weeks: Move this NASS read into the feed plan now: count forage days, price hay and grain, then compare selling lighter cattle against buying another gain period.\n- 0-14 days: Move water checks, shade, transport timing, and dairy heat-abatement ahead of the forecast peak before assuming cattle will keep eating and gaining normally.\n- 1-8 weeks: Use the COT feed read with local corn, hay, freight, and weather before delaying ration coverage or holding cattle for extra gain.\n- Same week to 4 weeks: Check delivered feed and basis before buying feeders, holding cattle for more weight, or leaving protein needs uncovered.\n- 1 month to 1 year: Put the WASDE revision beside local corn, meal, hay, freight, and weather before buying feed, buying feeders, or holding cattle for more gain.\n\nData: https://cattleweightestimation.com/market-pulse/weekly-intelligence.json?region=north-america&sector=all&lang=en\n\nMarkdown: https://cattleweightestimation.com/market-pulse/weekly-intelligence.md?region=north-america&sector=all&lang=en","citationText":"North America Weekly market intelligence summarizes 4 market moves, 5 scenarios, 5 historical patterns, and 5 local boards for North America.","region":{"id":"north-america","name":{"en":"North America","es":"Norteamérica","pt":"América do Norte"},"shortName":"North America","currency":"USD","unit":"lb","headline":{"en":"Tight supply makes every pound and every feed decision matter.","es":"La oferta ajustada hace que cada libra y cada decisión de alimento importen.","pt":"A oferta apertada faz cada libra e cada decisão de ração importar."},"dailyBrief":{"en":"Track feeder and fed cattle bids, boxed beef, feed cost, drought, pasture condition, and disease or border movement before choosing sell, hold, hedge, or feed.","es":"Seguir precios de invernada y gordo, carne en caja, alimento, sequía, pasto y sanidad antes de vender, retener, cubrir o alimentar.","pt":"Acompanhar recria e boi gordo, carne no atacado, ração, seca, pasto e sanidade antes de vender, reter, fazer hedge ou alimentar."},"producerTakeaway":{"en":"The useful decision is not a price headline. It is whether the next 50 lb still pays after feed, freight, weather, and buyer risk.","es":"La decisión útil no es el titular de precio. Es si las próximas libras pagan después de alimento, flete, clima y comprador.","pt":"A decisão útil não é o título de preço. É se as próximas libras pagam após ração, frete, clima e risco do comprador."},"weatherAndFeed":{"en":"Drought, pasture condition, hay, corn, diesel, and heat load are the daily feed-margin signals.","es":"Sequía, pasto, heno, maíz, diésel y calor son señales diarias de margen.","pt":"Seca, pasto, feno, milho, diesel e calor são sinais diários de margem."},"tradeAndPolicy":{"en":"Exports, border movement, APHIS notices, slaughter pace, and futures positioning can move bids quickly.","es":"Exportación, frontera, avisos sanitarios, faena y futuros pueden mover ofertas rápido.","pt":"Exportação, fronteira, avisos sanitários, abate e futuros podem mover ofertas rápido."},"riskScore":63,"opportunityScore":78,"marketSignals":[{"id":"na-cash-cattle","label":{"en":"Cash cattle","es":"Ganado disponible","pt":"Gado físico"},"value":"Firm","change":{"en":"tight supply","es":"oferta ajustada","pt":"oferta apertada"},"tone":"up","detail":{"en":"Tight cattle supply keeps the sale window sensitive to packer bids, slaughter pace, and boxed beef support.","es":"La oferta ajustada hace que la venta dependa de frigoríficos, faena y carne en caja.","pt":"A oferta apertada deixa a venda sensível a frigoríficos, abate e carne no atacado."},"sector":"beef","sourceId":"usda-ams","confidence":86},{"id":"na-forage","label":{"en":"Forage pressure","es":"Presión de forraje","pt":"Pressão de pasto"},"value":"Watch","change":{"en":"weekly drought map","es":"mapa semanal de sequía","pt":"mapa semanal de seca"},"tone":"risk","detail":{"en":"Drought and pasture condition decide whether extra weight is cheap gain or expensive feed risk.","es":"Sequía y condición de pasto deciden si el peso extra es ganancia barata o riesgo caro.","pt":"Seca e condição do pasto decidem se peso extra é ganho barato ou risco caro."},"sector":"feed","sourceId":"us-drought-monitor","confidence":88},{"id":"na-dairy-cull","label":{"en":"Cull cow flow","es":"Descarte lechero","pt":"Descarte leiteiro"},"value":"Margin-led","change":{"en":"milk vs feed","es":"leche vs alimento","pt":"leite vs ração"},"tone":"neutral","detail":{"en":"Milk margin and feed cost decide whether dairy cows stay in production or move into beef supply.","es":"El margen leche-alimento decide si vacas lecheras siguen o entran a oferta de carne.","pt":"A margem leite-ração decide se vacas ficam produzindo ou entram na oferta de carne."},"sector":"dairy","sourceId":"usda-ams","confidence":78},{"id":"na-health","label":{"en":"Health movement","es":"Movimiento sanitario","pt":"Movimentação sanitária"},"value":"Check","change":{"en":"event-driven","es":"por evento","pt":"por evento"},"tone":"neutral","detail":{"en":"Disease and movement rules can matter more than price when cattle cross state, province, or border lines.","es":"Sanidad y movimiento pueden importar más que precio al cruzar estados o fronteras.","pt":"Sanidade e movimento podem pesar mais que preço ao cruzar estados ou fronteiras."},"sector":"animal-health","sourceId":"usda-aphis","confidence":82},{"id":"na-crop-feed-balance","label":{"en":"Crop-feed balance","es":"Balance cultivo-alimento","pt":"Balanço cultura-ração"},"value":"Tight watch","change":{"en":"WASDE + crop progress","es":"WASDE + avance cultivo","pt":"WASDE + progresso da safra"},"tone":"risk","detail":{"en":"Corn, hay, pasture, and crop-condition changes move feed cost before livestock reports catch up.","es":"Maíz, heno, pasto y condición de cultivo mueven alimento antes del dato ganadero.","pt":"Milho, feno, pasto e condição da safra movem ração antes do dado pecuário."},"sector":"crops","sourceId":"usda-wasde","confidence":85}],"localMarkets":[{"name":"Southern Plains","country":"United States","role":{"en":"feedlot and fed cattle read","es":"feedlot y gordo","pt":"confinamento e boi gordo"},"risk":68,"mainDriver":{"en":"feed cost and drought","es":"alimento y sequía","pt":"ração e seca"},"updateCadence":"daily"},{"name":"Northern Plains","country":"United States","role":{"en":"feeder supply and weather","es":"oferta de invernada y clima","pt":"oferta de recria e clima"},"risk":59,"mainDriver":{"en":"pasture and feeder runs","es":"pasto y remates","pt":"pasto e leilões"},"updateCadence":"weekly"},{"name":"Canadian Prairies","country":"Canada","role":{"en":"cross-border and feedgrain market","es":"frontera y granos","pt":"fronteira e grãos"},"risk":54,"mainDriver":{"en":"FX, feed, border movement","es":"cambio, alimento, frontera","pt":"câmbio, ração, fronteira"},"updateCadence":"weekly"}],"weightValues":[{"class":{"en":"Light calf","es":"Ternero liviano","pt":"Bezerro leve"},"weight":450,"pricePerUnit":365,"estimatedValue":1643},{"class":{"en":"Weaned calf","es":"Ternero destetado","pt":"Bezerro desmamado"},"weight":550,"pricePerUnit":335,"estimatedValue":1843},{"class":{"en":"Feeder steer","es":"Novillo de invernada","pt":"Garrote de recria"},"weight":800,"pricePerUnit":285,"estimatedValue":2280},{"class":{"en":"Finished steer","es":"Novillo terminado","pt":"Boi terminado"},"weight":1350,"pricePerUnit":228,"estimatedValue":3078}],"feedMargin":[{"label":{"en":"Feeder value","es":"Valor de compra","pt":"Valor de entrada"},"value":2280},{"label":{"en":"Feed and yardage","es":"Alimento y corral","pt":"Ração e diária"},"value":-615},{"label":{"en":"Health and freight","es":"Sanidad y flete","pt":"Sanidade e frete"},"value":-95},{"label":{"en":"Finished value","es":"Valor terminado","pt":"Valor terminado"},"value":3078},{"label":{"en":"Gross spread","es":"Margen bruto","pt":"Spread bruto"},"value":1088}],"newsRadar":[{"id":"na-drought","title":{"en":"Drought shifts sale timing","es":"Sequía cambia la venta","pt":"Seca muda a venda"},"impact":"High","category":{"en":"Weather","es":"Clima","pt":"Clima"},"sector":"feed","sourceId":"us-drought-monitor","summary":{"en":"Pasture deterioration can pull calves forward, lift hay demand, and change the value of holding cattle.","es":"El deterioro del pasto adelanta terneros, sube heno y cambia el valor de retener.","pt":"A piora do pasto antecipa bezerros, eleva feno e muda o valor de reter."},"producerAction":{"en":"Compare forage days with the value of adding the next 50 lb.","es":"Comparar días de forraje con el valor de agregar más peso.","pt":"Comparar dias de pasto com o valor de adicionar peso."}},{"id":"na-feed","title":{"en":"Feed costs pressure breakevens","es":"Alimento presiona equilibrio","pt":"Ração pressiona equilíbrio"},"impact":"High","category":{"en":"Feed","es":"Alimento","pt":"Ração"},"sector":"feed","sourceId":"world-bank-pink-sheet","summary":{"en":"Corn, hay, freight, and yardage decide whether extra gain creates profit or only a bigger ticket.","es":"Maíz, heno, flete y corral deciden si más ganancia crea margen.","pt":"Milho, feno, frete e diária decidem se mais ganho cria margem."},"producerAction":{"en":"Reprice the ration before delaying sales.","es":"Recalcular la dieta antes de demorar ventas.","pt":"Recalcular a dieta antes de atrasar venda."}},{"id":"na-health-policy","title":{"en":"Health rules affect movement","es":"Sanidad afecta movimiento","pt":"Sanidade afeta movimento"},"impact":"Medium","category":{"en":"Policy","es":"Política","pt":"Política"},"sector":"animal-health","sourceId":"usda-aphis","summary":{"en":"Movement and disease rules can change buyer access faster than inventory reports.","es":"Reglas sanitarias pueden cambiar compradores más rápido que inventarios.","pt":"Regras sanitárias podem mudar compradores mais rápido que inventários."},"producerAction":{"en":"Check movement status before shipping cattle across regions.","es":"Verificar movimiento antes de enviar ganado entre regiones.","pt":"Verificar movimentação antes de enviar gado entre regiões."}}],"driverStack":[{"driver":{"en":"Herd cycle tightness","es":"Ciclo del hato ajustado","pt":"Ciclo do rebanho apertado"},"score":82,"movement":"up","why":{"en":"Scarce supply supports bids but raises replacement risk.","es":"Oferta escasa apoya precios y encarece reposición.","pt":"Oferta escassa sustenta preços e encarece reposição."}},{"driver":{"en":"Feed and forage cost","es":"Costo de alimento y forraje","pt":"Custo de ração e pasto"},"score":68,"movement":"risk","why":{"en":"Margin can disappear even when cattle prices are high.","es":"El margen puede desaparecer aun con precios altos.","pt":"A margem pode sumir mesmo com preços altos."}},{"driver":{"en":"Export and slaughter pace","es":"Exportación y faena","pt":"Exportação e abate"},"score":57,"movement":"neutral","why":{"en":"Processor demand decides whether heavier cattle are rewarded.","es":"La demanda frigorífica decide si más peso paga.","pt":"A demanda frigorífica decide se mais peso paga."}}],"watchlist":[{"en":"Feeder auction spreads by weight class","es":"Diferenciales de remate por peso","pt":"Diferenças de leilão por peso"},{"en":"Pasture condition and drought changes","es":"Condición de pasto y sequía","pt":"Condição de pasto e seca"},{"en":"Feed, diesel, and freight costs","es":"Alimento, diésel y flete","pt":"Ração, diesel e frete"},{"en":"Disease, border, and movement notices","es":"Sanidad, frontera y movimiento","pt":"Sanidade, fronteira e movimentação"}]}},"issues":[{"id":"weekly-intelligence-north-america-all-en","type":"weekly-market-intelligence","title":"North America Weekly market intelligence","subtitle":"Market moves, scenarios, history, local boards, and producer decisions to review this week.","locale":"en","regionId":"north-america","regionName":"North America","sector":"all","issueDate":"2026-06-06","generatedAt":"2026-06-06T23:05:22.251Z","snapshotGeneratedAt":"2026-06-06T11:33:23.605Z","snapshotWindow":{"startDate":"2026-05-28","endDate":"2026-06-03"},"weekWindow":{"startDate":"2026-05-28","endDate":"2026-06-03"},"updateCadence":"weekly","isAccessibleForFree":true,"canonicalDataUrl":"https://cattleweightestimation.com/market-pulse/weekly-intelligence.json?region=north-america&sector=all&lang=en","canonicalMarkdownUrl":"https://cattleweightestimation.com/market-pulse/weekly-intelligence.md?region=north-america&sector=all&lang=en","summary":{"marketMoves":4,"producerActions":5,"scenarios":5,"historicalPatterns":5,"localBoards":5,"decisionTraces":6,"sourceGraphEdges":9,"marketFeeds":5,"evidenceItems":424,"mappedMarketSeries":302037,"liveConnectorFamilies":43,"sourceDiscoveryTargets":4017},"leadRead":{"title":"U.S. pasture good/excellent changes the official crop progress read","body":"30 % in the 2026-06-01 USDA NASS Crop Progress; -12.0 points versus last year. This is an official supply, feed, dairy, or pasture signal to read before treating local prices as isolated. Feed coverage, hay buying, pasture carrying days, local basis, feeder bids, and whether extra retained weight still pays.","producerAction":"Move this NASS read into the feed plan now: count forage days, price hay and grain, then compare selling lighter cattle against buying another gain period.","sourceName":"USDA NASS QuickStats and ESMIS reports","sourceUrl":"https://esmis.nal.usda.gov/","confidence":91},"marketMoves":[{"id":"daily-impact-usda-nass-crop-progress-pasture-good-excellent-2026-06-01-official-report-impact","priority":"act","priorityLabel":"Act now","title":"U.S. pasture good/excellent changes the official crop progress read","whatChanged":"30 % in the 2026-06-01 USDA NASS Crop Progress; -12.0 points versus last year. This is an official supply, feed, dairy, or pasture signal to read before treating local prices as isolated.","whyItMatters":"Feed coverage, hay buying, pasture carrying days, local basis, feeder bids, and whether extra retained weight still pays.","producerAction":"Move this NASS read into the feed plan now: count forage days, price hay and grain, then compare selling lighter cattle against buying another gain period.","decisionWindow":"0-12 weeks","sourceName":"USDA NASS QuickStats and ESMIS reports","sourceUrl":"https://esmis.nal.usda.gov/","confidence":91,"evidenceKey":"impact:usda-nass-crop-progress-pasture-good-excellent-2026-06-01-official-report-impact","evidenceCount":7},{"id":"daily-impact-usda-nass-crop-progress-pasture-poor-very-poor-2026-06-01-official-report-impact","priority":"act","priorityLabel":"Act now","title":"U.S. pasture poor/very poor changes the official crop progress read","whatChanged":"42 % in the 2026-06-01 USDA NASS Crop Progress; 42.0% of selected-state pasture is poor or very poor. This is an official supply, feed, dairy, or pasture signal to read before treating local prices as isolated.","whyItMatters":"Feed coverage, hay buying, pasture carrying days, local basis, feeder bids, and whether extra retained weight still pays.","producerAction":"Move this NASS read into the feed plan now: count forage days, price hay and grain, then compare selling lighter cattle against buying another gain period.","decisionWindow":"0-12 weeks","sourceName":"USDA NASS QuickStats and ESMIS reports","sourceUrl":"https://esmis.nal.usda.gov/","confidence":91,"evidenceKey":"impact:usda-nass-crop-progress-pasture-poor-very-poor-2026-06-01-official-report-impact","evidenceCount":7},{"id":"daily-impact-open-meteo-water-demand-southern-plains-water-heat-impact","priority":"act","priorityLabel":"Act now","title":"Southern Plains 7-day water demand forecast: heat and water demand watch","whatChanged":"60.8 mm/week forecast for reference evapotranspiration. That is a forward signal for pasture drying, trough checks, shade, dairy comfort, and irrigated feed-crop pressure.","whyItMatters":"Water demand, shade and handling windows, dairy milk yield, pasture regrowth, hay substitution, irrigation demand, and feed-crop stress.","producerAction":"Move water checks, shade, transport timing, and dairy heat-abatement ahead of the forecast peak before assuming cattle will keep eating and gaining normally.","decisionWindow":"0-14 days","sourceName":"Open-Meteo global weather forecast","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","confidence":88,"evidenceKey":"impact:open-meteo-water-demand-southern-plains-water-heat-impact","evidenceCount":9},{"id":"daily-impact-cftc-cot-corn-hedge-margin-impact","priority":"act","priorityLabel":"Act now","title":"Corn COT positioning changes hedge and feed-risk timing","whatChanged":"6 % net long / open interest in the latest CFTC Commitments of Traders report. Feed futures positioning is a weekly early-warning signal for ration coverage and crop-feed exposure.","whyItMatters":"Delivered feed cost, ration coverage, feedlot breakeven, crop selling, hay substitution, and retained weight.","producerAction":"Use the COT feed read with local corn, hay, freight, and weather before delaying ration coverage or holding cattle for extra gain.","decisionWindow":"1-8 weeks","sourceName":"CFTC Commitments of Traders","sourceUrl":"https://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/index.htm","confidence":86,"evidenceKey":"impact:cftc-cot-corn-hedge-margin-impact","evidenceCount":7}],"producerChecklist":[{"id":"brief-action-daily-impact-usda-nass-crop-progress-pasture-poor-very-poor-2026-06-01-official-report-impact","priority":"act","priorityLabel":"Act now","title":"U.S. pasture poor/very poor changes the official crop progress read","action":"Move this NASS read into the feed plan now: count forage days, price hay and grain, then compare selling lighter cattle against buying another gain period.","why":"Feed coverage, hay buying, pasture carrying days, local basis, feeder bids, and whether extra retained weight still pays.","window":"0-12 weeks","sourceName":"USDA NASS QuickStats and ESMIS reports","sourceUrl":"https://esmis.nal.usda.gov/","confidence":91},{"id":"brief-action-daily-impact-open-meteo-water-demand-southern-plains-water-heat-impact","priority":"act","priorityLabel":"Act now","title":"Southern Plains 7-day water demand forecast: heat and water demand watch","action":"Move water checks, shade, transport timing, and dairy heat-abatement ahead of the forecast peak before assuming cattle will keep eating and gaining normally.","why":"Water demand, shade and handling windows, dairy milk yield, pasture regrowth, hay substitution, irrigation demand, and feed-crop stress.","window":"0-14 days","sourceName":"Open-Meteo global weather forecast","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","confidence":88},{"id":"brief-action-daily-impact-cftc-cot-corn-hedge-margin-impact","priority":"act","priorityLabel":"Act now","title":"Corn COT positioning changes hedge and feed-risk timing","action":"Use the COT feed read with local corn, hay, freight, and weather before delaying ration coverage or holding cattle for extra gain.","why":"Delivered feed cost, ration coverage, feedlot breakeven, crop selling, hay substitution, and retained weight.","window":"1-8 weeks","sourceName":"CFTC Commitments of Traders","sourceUrl":"https://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/index.htm","confidence":86},{"id":"brief-action-daily-impact-usda-esr-sorghum-weekly-exports-buyer-pull-impact","priority":"act","priorityLabel":"Act now","title":"Sorghum export pull weekly exports changed weekly buyer pull","action":"Check delivered feed and basis before buying feeders, holding cattle for more weight, or leaving protein needs uncovered.","why":"Corn, sorghum, and meal export pull can change domestic feed basis, ration coverage, feeder bids, and gain economics.","window":"Same week to 4 weeks","sourceName":"USDA Export Sales Reporting","sourceUrl":"https://apps.fas.usda.gov/export-sales/esrd1.html","confidence":84},{"id":"brief-action-daily-impact-usda-wasde-us-corn-stocks-monthly-balance-impact","priority":"act","priorityLabel":"Act now","title":"U.S. corn ending stocks changes the monthly feed and supply read","action":"Put the WASDE revision beside local corn, meal, hay, freight, and weather before buying feed, buying feeders, or holding cattle for more gain.","why":"Delivered feed cost, ration coverage, hay substitution, crop-to-cattle margin, feeder bids, and whether retained weight still pays.","window":"1 month to 1 year","sourceName":"USDA WASDE historical data","sourceUrl":"https://www.usda.gov/historical-wasde-report-data","confidence":90}],"scenarioBoard":[{"id":"feed-cost-spike","rank":1,"name":"Feed cost spike","sector":"feed","riskLevel":"severe","stressScore":4813,"currentMove":"Risk rises versus baseline.","producerDecision":"Recalculate whether the next gain period is still worth feeding.","evidenceItems":157,"sourceFamilies":23,"historicalDrivers":8},{"id":"crop-yield-shock","rank":2,"name":"Crop yield shock","sector":"crops","riskLevel":"severe","stressScore":3321,"currentMove":"Risk rises versus baseline.","producerDecision":"Decide whether to protect feed needs, price grain, adjust planting, or buy hay before local shortages are obvious.","evidenceItems":99,"sourceFamilies":20,"historicalDrivers":8},{"id":"export-disruption","rank":3,"name":"Export or border disruption","sector":"beef","riskLevel":"severe","stressScore":2296,"currentMove":"Risk rises versus baseline.","producerDecision":"Do not assume local bids are stable when export channels or border rules move.","evidenceItems":54,"sourceFamilies":17,"historicalDrivers":8},{"id":"drought-shock","rank":4,"name":"Drought tightens forage","sector":"feed","riskLevel":"severe","stressScore":2033,"currentMove":"Risk rises versus baseline.","producerDecision":"Check forage inventory, water, and the value of selling lighter cattle before everyone else is forced to.","evidenceItems":48,"sourceFamilies":14,"historicalDrivers":8},{"id":"milk-margin-squeeze","rank":5,"name":"Milk margin squeeze","sector":"dairy","riskLevel":"severe","stressScore":1402,"currentMove":"Risk rises versus baseline.","producerDecision":"Reprice feed, cull timing, and replacement animals before ration spend outruns milk value.","evidenceItems":27,"sourceFamilies":16,"historicalDrivers":8}],"historyToForecast":[{"id":"forecast-memory:north-america:pasture-stress-to-sale-runs:us-drought-monitor-southern-plains-d2-plus-forage-retention-impact","priority":"act","title":"Southern Plains severe drought footprint changes forage and retention risk","currentSignal":"52 % D2+ area in the latest U.S. Drought Monitor. D2+ is the official severe-drought footprint to read before assuming pasture, hay, and water pressure stay local.","pastPattern":"Pasture stress becomes sale pressure","forwardWindow":"2-16 weeks","forwardRead":"More calves and cull cows move earlier","producerAction":"Recount forage and hay inventory now, then compare selling lighter cattle against carrying them through a drought-priced gain period.","confidence":92},{"id":"forecast-memory:north-america:crop-balance-to-feed-margin:usda-nass-crop-progress-pasture-good-excellent-2026-06-01-official-report-impact","priority":"act","title":"U.S. pasture good/excellent changes the official crop progress read","currentSignal":"30 % in the 2026-06-01 USDA NASS Crop Progress; -12.0 points versus last year. This is an official supply, feed, dairy, or pasture signal to read before treating local prices as isolated.","pastPattern":"Crop balance becomes feed margin","forwardWindow":"1-18 months","forwardRead":"Backgrounding and finishing margins compress","producerAction":"Move this NASS read into the feed plan now: count forage days, price hay and grain, then compare selling lighter cattle against buying another gain period.","confidence":91},{"id":"forecast-memory:north-america:export-pull-to-local-basis:fas-psd-ca-beef-balance-sheet-impact","priority":"act","title":"Canada PSD beef supply and trade updates the long-cycle supply read","currentSignal":"1,315 thousand metric tons CWE in USDA FAS PSD for Canada. The balance sheet is +4.4% versus 2025, so read it against local prices instead of treating daily headlines as isolated events.","pastPattern":"Export pull changes local basis","forwardWindow":"1-12 weeks","forwardRead":"Processor bids widen or narrow by export access","producerAction":"Compare PSD beef supply and trade with local bids before deciding whether price weakness is temporary noise or real buyer leverage.","confidence":90},{"id":"forecast-memory:north-america:heat-load-to-milk-gain:open-meteo-water-demand-southern-plains-water-heat-impact","priority":"act","title":"Southern Plains 7-day water demand forecast: heat and water demand watch","currentSignal":"60.8 mm/week forecast for reference evapotranspiration. That is a forward signal for pasture drying, trough checks, shade, dairy comfort, and irrigated feed-crop pressure.","pastPattern":"Heat load becomes milk and weight-gain drag","forwardWindow":"Same day to 12 weeks","forwardRead":"Milk output and components weaken","producerAction":"Move water checks, shade, transport timing, and dairy heat-abatement ahead of the forecast peak before assuming cattle will keep eating and gaining normally.","confidence":88},{"id":"forecast-memory:north-america:positioning-to-hedge-margin:cftc-cot-live-cattle-hedge-margin-impact","priority":"act","title":"Live cattle COT positioning changes hedge and feed-risk timing","currentSignal":"34 % net long / open interest in the latest CFTC Commitments of Traders report. Cattle positioning is a weekly early-warning signal for hedge urgency, retained ownership, and basis risk.","pastPattern":"Futures positioning becomes hedge and margin pressure","forwardWindow":"1-8 weeks","forwardRead":"Hedge urgency rises before local bids fully reprice","producerAction":"Use the COT cattle read with local cash bids before holding unhedged cattle weight or assuming buyer leverage will stay unchanged.","confidence":88}],"localMarketBoard":[{"id":"united-states-dairy-belt","name":"United States dairy and processor belt","country":"United States","priority":"watch","priorityLabel":"Watch","marketRead":"United States dairy and processor belt combines risk 70, opportunity 83, 10 public layers, and 8 current signals.","topAction":"Use milk price, solids, feed cost, cull-cow flow, and processor demand before changing ration, culling, or replacement plans.","watchSignal":"Milk-feed spread, processor pull, dairy-beef supply, and replacement economics.","nextCheck":"Review before the next report, input buy, or weekly movement.","risk":70,"opportunity":83,"sourceFamilies":8},{"id":"united-states-pasture-basin","name":"United States pasture and water basin","country":"United States","priority":"watch","priorityLabel":"Watch","marketRead":"United States pasture and water basin combines risk 69, opportunity 83, 10 public layers, and 8 current signals.","topAction":"Use rainfall, heat, water, pasture, and forage signals before changing stocking rate, sale pressure, or supplement buying.","watchSignal":"Pasture recovery, water stress, heat load, hay availability, and forced-sale risk.","nextCheck":"Review before the next report, input buy, or weekly movement.","risk":69,"opportunity":83,"sourceFamilies":8},{"id":"united-states-trade-corridor","name":"United States trade and health corridor","country":"United States","priority":"act","priorityLabel":"Act now","marketRead":"United States trade and health corridor combines risk 68, opportunity 84, 10 public layers, and 8 current signals.","topAction":"Use export access, border movement, disease notices, freight, currency, and policy signals before committing volume.","watchSignal":"Destination concentration, sanitary access, port flow, border friction, and currency translation.","nextCheck":"Review before closing a sale, buying feed, moving animals, or committing volume today.","risk":68,"opportunity":84,"sourceFamilies":8},{"id":"united-states-feed-belt","name":"United States feed and crop belt","country":"United States","priority":"act","priorityLabel":"Act now","marketRead":"United States feed and crop belt combines risk 70, opportunity 84, 9 public layers, and 8 current signals.","topAction":"Use feed grain, hay, protein meal, crop progress, fuel, and credit signals before buying feed or holding weight longer.","watchSignal":"Delivered feed basis, crop yield risk, freight, diesel, and financing pressure.","nextCheck":"Review before closing a sale, buying feed, moving animals, or committing volume today.","risk":70,"opportunity":84,"sourceFamilies":8},{"id":"canada-dairy-belt","name":"Canada dairy and processor belt","country":"Canada","priority":"watch","priorityLabel":"Watch","marketRead":"Canada dairy and processor belt combines risk 67, opportunity 83, 10 public layers, and 8 current signals.","topAction":"Use milk price, solids, feed cost, cull-cow flow, and processor demand before changing ration, culling, or replacement plans.","watchSignal":"Milk-feed spread, processor pull, dairy-beef supply, and replacement economics.","nextCheck":"Review before the next report, input buy, or weekly movement.","risk":67,"opportunity":83,"sourceFamilies":8}],"decisionTraces":[{"id":"path-north-america-event-fao-newsroom-rss-strait-of-hormuz-time-running-out-to-avert-global-food-security-cri","title":"North America: Strait of Hormuz: Time running out to avert global food security crisis, FAO warns","currentSignal":"FAO Newsroom published a war, sanctions, or shipping-route item. Read it as a delivered feed, fertilizer, fuel, freight, and buyer-access signal.","howItAffects":"Early event awareness before official reports update: Buyer access, disease movement risk, export demand, feed input cost, weather pressure, and local sale timing","pastPattern":"Same day to 3 years history usually shows up in Same week to 12 months: Delivered feed and fertilizer become more expensive or less reliable Local basis can diverge from headline futures or export values Local feed substitution, earlier sale timing, or destination hedging becomes valuable","forwardScenario":"War and shipping disruption: Conflict, sanctions, canal disruption, or route risk changes grain, fertilizer, fuel, freight, and protein trade costs.","producerDecision":"Check delivered feed, fertilizer, fuel, freight, and route exposure before holding cattle longer or locking crop-input purchases.","source":{"id":"fao-newsroom","name":"FAO Newsroom","category":"Regional","officialUrl":"https://www.fao.org/newsroom/detail/strait-of-hormuz--time-running-out-to-avert-global-food-security-crisis--fao-warns/en"},"confidence":82,"severity":"high"},{"id":"path-north-america-event-fao-newsroom-rss-strait-of-hormuz-conflict-threatens-global-food-prices-as-fao-warns","title":"North America: Strait of Hormuz conflict threatens global food prices as FAO warns time is running out","currentSignal":"FAO Newsroom published a war, sanctions, or shipping-route item. Read it as a delivered feed, fertilizer, fuel, freight, and buyer-access signal.","howItAffects":"Early event awareness before official reports update: Buyer access, disease movement risk, export demand, feed input cost, weather pressure, and local sale timing","pastPattern":"Same day to 3 years history usually shows up in Same week to 12 months: Delivered feed and fertilizer become more expensive or less reliable Local basis can diverge from headline futures or export values Local feed substitution, earlier sale timing, or destination hedging becomes valuable","forwardScenario":"War and shipping disruption: Conflict, sanctions, canal disruption, or route risk changes grain, fertilizer, fuel, freight, and protein trade costs.","producerDecision":"Check delivered feed, fertilizer, fuel, freight, and route exposure before holding cattle longer or locking crop-input purchases.","source":{"id":"fao-newsroom","name":"FAO Newsroom","category":"Regional","officialUrl":"https://www.fao.org/newsroom/detail/strait-of-hormuz-conflict-threatens-global-food-prices-as-fao-warns-time-is-running-out/en"},"confidence":82,"severity":"high"},{"id":"path-north-america-event-fao-newsroom-rss-strait-of-hormuz-crisis-fertilizer-scarcity-will-affect-next-harves","title":"North America: Strait of Hormuz crisis: Fertilizer scarcity will affect next harvests and food supplies, FAO warns","currentSignal":"FAO Newsroom published a war, sanctions, or shipping-route item. Read it as a delivered feed, fertilizer, fuel, freight, and buyer-access signal.","howItAffects":"Early event awareness before official reports update: Buyer access, disease movement risk, export demand, feed input cost, weather pressure, and local sale timing","pastPattern":"Same day to 3 years history usually shows up in Same week to 12 months: Delivered feed and fertilizer become more expensive or less reliable Local basis can diverge from headline futures or export values Local feed substitution, earlier sale timing, or destination hedging becomes valuable","forwardScenario":"War and shipping disruption: Conflict, sanctions, canal disruption, or route risk changes grain, fertilizer, fuel, freight, and protein trade costs.","producerDecision":"Check delivered feed, fertilizer, fuel, freight, and route exposure before holding cattle longer or locking crop-input purchases.","source":{"id":"fao-newsroom","name":"FAO Newsroom","category":"Regional","officialUrl":"https://www.fao.org/newsroom/detail/strait-of-hormuz-crisis--fertilizer-scarcity-will-affect-next-harvests-and-food-supplies--fao-warns/en"},"confidence":82,"severity":"high"},{"id":"path-north-america-impact-open-meteo-water-demand-southern-plains-water-heat-impact","title":"North America: Southern Plains 7-day water demand forecast: heat and water demand watch","currentSignal":"Water demand, shade and handling windows, dairy milk yield, pasture regrowth, hay substitution, irrigation demand, and feed-crop stress.","howItAffects":"Forward pasture, heat, water, and forage pressure: Sale timing, feed coverage, water checks, milk yield, weight gain, and crop-feed risk","pastPattern":"30-120 days history usually shows up in 2-16 weeks: More calves and cull cows move earlier Replacement animals face discount risk in dry regions Feed cost can erase the value of extra gain","forwardScenario":"Drought tightens forage: Pasture weakens, hay gets tighter, and more cows or calves can move earlier than planned.","producerDecision":"Move water checks, shade, transport timing, and dairy heat-abatement ahead of the forecast peak before assuming cattle will keep eating and gaining normally.","source":{"id":"open-meteo-forecast","name":"Open-Meteo global weather forecast","category":"Weather","officialUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs"},"confidence":88,"severity":"high"},{"id":"path-north-america-impact-usda-esr-sorghum-weekly-exports-buyer-pull-impact","title":"North America: Sorghum export pull weekly exports changed weekly buyer pull","currentSignal":"Corn, sorghum, and meal export pull can change domestic feed basis, ration coverage, feeder bids, and gain economics.","howItAffects":"Export buyer pull before customs data confirms it: Beef cutout support, grain basis, local processor bids, and feed ingredient demand","pastPattern":"90 days to 5 years history usually shows up in 1-18 months: Backgrounding and finishing margins compress Dairy ration spend rises before cull flow changes Crop producers may gain price opportunity while livestock producers face cost risk","forwardScenario":"Feed cost spike: Corn, hay, soybean meal, fuel, or freight costs rise faster than cattle value.","producerDecision":"Check delivered feed and basis before buying feeders, holding cattle for more weight, or leaving protein needs uncovered.","source":{"id":"usda-esr","name":"USDA Export Sales Reporting","category":"Trade","officialUrl":"https://apps.fas.usda.gov/export-sales/esrd1.html"},"confidence":84,"severity":"high"}],"evidenceMap":{"sourceFamilies":[{"id":"usda-nass","name":"USDA NASS QuickStats and ESMIS reports","category":"Inventory","officialUrl":"https://esmis.nal.usda.gov/","cadence":"Weekly, monthly, quarterly, annual","coverage":"U.S. cattle inventory, cattle on feed, slaughter, milk production, crop progress, pasture condition, prices, and livestock surveys","producerUse":"cattle inventory, pasture condition, corn production, hay stocks","citation":"USDA NASS QuickStats and ESMIS reports: U.S. cattle inventory, cattle on feed, slaughter, milk production, crop progress, pasture condition, prices, and livestock surveys. Official URL: https://esmis.nal.usda.gov/"},{"id":"open-meteo-forecast","name":"Open-Meteo global weather forecast","category":"Weather","officialUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","cadence":"Daily and hourly","coverage":"Global no-key weather forecast API for daily temperature, precipitation, wind, and agricultural weather by coordinate","producerUse":"7-day rainfall forecast, temperature forecast, apparent heat stress, reference evapotranspiration","citation":"Open-Meteo global weather forecast: Global no-key weather forecast API for daily temperature, precipitation, wind, and agricultural weather by coordinate. Official URL: https://open-meteo.com/en/docs"},{"id":"cftc-cot","name":"CFTC Commitments of Traders","category":"Futures","officialUrl":"https://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/index.htm","cadence":"Weekly","coverage":"U.S. futures and options positioning, including livestock and feed contracts","producerUse":"live cattle positioning, feeder cattle positioning, corn positioning","citation":"CFTC Commitments of Traders: U.S. futures and options positioning, including livestock and feed contracts. Official URL: https://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/index.htm"},{"id":"usda-esr","name":"USDA Export Sales Reporting","category":"Trade","officialUrl":"https://apps.fas.usda.gov/export-sales/esrd1.html","cadence":"Weekly","coverage":"Weekly U.S. export sales and shipments for beef, corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, and feed ingredients","producerUse":"export commitments, weekly shipments, buyer destination, crop demand","citation":"USDA Export Sales Reporting: Weekly U.S. export sales and shipments for beef, corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, and feed ingredients. Official URL: https://apps.fas.usda.gov/export-sales/esrd1.html"},{"id":"usda-wasde","name":"USDA WASDE historical data","category":"Crops","officialUrl":"https://www.usda.gov/historical-wasde-report-data","cadence":"Monthly","coverage":"World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates for feed grains, oilseeds, cotton, livestock, dairy, and global balance sheets","producerUse":"corn balance sheet, soybean balance sheet, feed use, dairy forecasts","citation":"USDA WASDE historical data: World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates for feed grains, oilseeds, cotton, livestock, dairy, and global balance sheets. Official URL: https://www.usda.gov/historical-wasde-report-data"}],"sourceGraph":[{"id":"nass-inventory-to-cycle","sourceId":"usda-nass","sourceName":"USDA NASS QuickStats and ESMIS reports","signal":"Inventory, placements, pasture, hay, crop data","driver":"Herd cycle, feeder supply, and feed availability","affects":"Replacement strategy, retained heifers, and forward feeder supply","producerDecision":"Decide whether scarce replacement animals are worth keeping or selling.","lag":"1 month to 1 year","confidence":86},{"id":"drought-to-retention","sourceId":"us-drought-monitor","sourceName":"U.S. Drought Monitor","signal":"Drought class, weekly narrative, pasture stress","driver":"Forage pressure and early liquidation risk","affects":"Cow retention, hay demand, calf movement, and replacement price","producerDecision":"Compare forage inventory against the value of carrying cattle longer.","lag":"1-4 weeks","confidence":88},{"id":"feed-energy-to-breakeven","sourceId":"world-bank-pink-sheet","sourceName":"World Bank commodity prices","signal":"Beef, energy, fertilizer, and feed commodity prices","driver":"Feed, fertilizer, freight, and pasture input cost","affects":"Backgrounding breakeven, finishing margin, hay cost, and stocking decision","producerDecision":"Reprice the next 50 lb or 25 kg before buying feed or delaying sales.","lag":"1-6 weeks","confidence":80},{"id":"open-meteo-forecast-to-forward-forage","sourceId":"open-meteo-forecast","sourceName":"Open-Meteo global weather forecast","signal":"7-day precipitation and temperature forecast by geo node","driver":"Forward pasture, heat, water, and forage pressure","affects":"Sale timing, feed coverage, water checks, milk yield, weight gain, and crop-feed risk","producerDecision":"Use the next-week rain and heat forecast before moving cattle, buying hay, changing supplement, or holding weight.","lag":"0-14 days","confidence":78},{"id":"nasa-weather-to-heat","sourceId":"nasa-power","sourceName":"NASA POWER","signal":"Temperature, humidity, wind, rainfall by coordinate","driver":"Heat load, water stress, and pasture regrowth","affects":"Gain, intake, fertility, death loss risk, and shade or water planning","producerDecision":"Adjust transport, feeding time, stocking rate, and water checks before stress peaks.","lag":"0-10 days","confidence":83},{"id":"cftc-positioning-to-hedge-feed-risk","sourceId":"cftc-cot","sourceName":"CFTC Commitments of Traders","signal":"Managed money, commercial, and open-interest positioning in live cattle, feeder cattle, corn, and soybean meal","driver":"Speculative positioning and commercial hedge pressure","affects":"Hedge timing, basis risk, feeder bids, feed coverage, and retained-ownership risk","producerDecision":"Use COT positioning as a weekly stress check before leaving cattle, corn, or soybean-meal exposure unprotected.","lag":"Same week to 8 weeks","confidence":80},{"id":"wasde-feed-balance-to-cattle-margin","sourceId":"usda-wasde","sourceName":"USDA WASDE historical data","signal":"Corn, soybean meal, hay, and dairy/feed balance sheets","driver":"Forward feed availability and ration cost","affects":"Backgrounding margin, finishing days, milk-feed spread, and crop planting incentives","producerDecision":"Use monthly balance-sheet revisions to decide whether to lock feed, sell lighter, or carry cattle longer.","lag":"1-12 months","confidence":87},{"id":"export-sales-to-buyer-pull","sourceId":"usda-esr","sourceName":"USDA Export Sales Reporting","signal":"Weekly export commitments and shipments by commodity and destination","driver":"Export buyer pull before customs data confirms it","affects":"Beef cutout support, grain basis, local processor bids, and feed ingredient demand","producerDecision":"Watch export-sales acceleration as an early signal for stronger cash bids or tighter feed.","lag":"1-5 weeks","confidence":83}],"historicalDrivers":[{"id":"pasture-stress-to-sale-runs","driver":"Pasture stress becomes sale pressure","lookbackWindow":"30-120 days","forwardWindow":"2-16 weeks","leadingSignals":["Soil moisture drops below seasonal median","Pasture condition ratings deteriorate","Hay and supplement quotes firm before auction volume rises"],"forwardEffects":["More calves and cull cows move earlier","Replacement animals face discount risk in dry regions","Feed cost can erase the value of extra gain"],"producerDecision":"Move from calendar-based selling to forage-days and feed-margin selling.","confidence":86},{"id":"crop-balance-to-feed-margin","driver":"Crop balance becomes feed margin","lookbackWindow":"90 days to 5 years","forwardWindow":"1-18 months","leadingSignals":["Acreage, crop progress, and soil moisture shift together","Balance-sheet revisions tighten ending stocks","Rail, freight, or port pressure widens local basis"],"forwardEffects":["Backgrounding and finishing margins compress","Dairy ration spend rises before cull flow changes","Crop producers may gain price opportunity while livestock producers face cost risk"],"producerDecision":"Use the crop balance to decide feed coverage, hay buying, grain pricing, and stocking rate.","confidence":84},{"id":"heat-load-to-milk-gain","driver":"Heat load becomes milk and weight-gain drag","lookbackWindow":"7-90 days","forwardWindow":"Same day to 12 weeks","leadingSignals":["Temperature-humidity pressure rises for multiple days","Water demand and night cooling fail to reset","Feed intake falls before production reports update"],"forwardEffects":["Milk output and components weaken","Finishing cattle gain less efficiently","Water, shade, and ration timing become margin controls"],"producerDecision":"Move heat mitigation and ration timing ahead of sale-weight or milk-output assumptions.","confidence":82},{"id":"positioning-to-hedge-margin","driver":"Futures positioning becomes hedge and margin pressure","lookbackWindow":"4-52 weeks","forwardWindow":"1-8 weeks","leadingSignals":["Managed money exits long cattle exposure","Corn or soybean-meal shorts cover quickly","Open interest changes while cash bids lag"],"forwardEffects":["Hedge urgency rises before local bids fully reprice","Feed coverage becomes more valuable when feed shorts unwind","Retained ownership gets riskier when cattle longs liquidate"],"producerDecision":"Check COT before deciding to hold unhedged weight, delay feed coverage, or assume today’s basis will still be there next month.","confidence":78}],"decisionChains":[{"id":"path-north-america-event-fao-newsroom-rss-strait-of-hormuz-time-running-out-to-avert-global-food-security-cri","sourceId":"fao-newsroom","sourceName":"FAO Newsroom","sourceUrl":"https://www.fao.org/newsroom/detail/strait-of-hormuz--time-running-out-to-avert-global-food-security-crisis--fao-warns/en","title":"North America: Strait of Hormuz: Time running out to avert global food security crisis, FAO warns","currentSignal":"FAO Newsroom published a war, sanctions, or shipping-route item. Read it as a delivered feed, fertilizer, fuel, freight, and buyer-access signal.","pastPattern":"Same day to 3 years history usually shows up in Same week to 12 months: Delivered feed and fertilizer become more expensive or less reliable Local basis can diverge from headline futures or export values Local feed substitution, earlier sale timing, or destination hedging becomes valuable","forwardScenario":"War and shipping disruption: Conflict, sanctions, canal disruption, or route risk changes grain, fertilizer, fuel, freight, and protein trade costs.","producerDecision":"Check delivered feed, fertilizer, fuel, freight, and route exposure before holding cattle longer or locking crop-input purchases.","severity":"high","confidence":82,"sectors":["feed","beef","dairy"],"scenarioIds":["geopolitical-shipping-shock","port-freight-shock","feed-cost-spike"],"historicalDriverIds":["geopolitical-shock-to-feed-freight","logistics-to-local-basis"],"sourceGraphEdgeIds":["gdelt-news-to-market-event-risk","eia-diesel-to-freight-feed-cost","feed-energy-to-breakeven"]},{"id":"path-north-america-event-fao-newsroom-rss-strait-of-hormuz-conflict-threatens-global-food-prices-as-fao-warns","sourceId":"fao-newsroom","sourceName":"FAO Newsroom","sourceUrl":"https://www.fao.org/newsroom/detail/strait-of-hormuz-conflict-threatens-global-food-prices-as-fao-warns-time-is-running-out/en","title":"North America: Strait of Hormuz conflict threatens global food prices as FAO warns time is running out","currentSignal":"FAO Newsroom published a war, sanctions, or shipping-route item. Read it as a delivered feed, fertilizer, fuel, freight, and buyer-access signal.","pastPattern":"Same day to 3 years history usually shows up in Same week to 12 months: Delivered feed and fertilizer become more expensive or less reliable Local basis can diverge from headline futures or export values Local feed substitution, earlier sale timing, or destination hedging becomes valuable","forwardScenario":"War and shipping disruption: Conflict, sanctions, canal disruption, or route risk changes grain, fertilizer, fuel, freight, and protein trade costs.","producerDecision":"Check delivered feed, fertilizer, fuel, freight, and route exposure before holding cattle longer or locking crop-input purchases.","severity":"high","confidence":82,"sectors":["feed","beef","dairy"],"scenarioIds":["geopolitical-shipping-shock","port-freight-shock","feed-cost-spike"],"historicalDriverIds":["geopolitical-shock-to-feed-freight","logistics-to-local-basis"],"sourceGraphEdgeIds":["gdelt-news-to-market-event-risk","eia-diesel-to-freight-feed-cost","feed-energy-to-breakeven"]},{"id":"path-north-america-event-fao-newsroom-rss-strait-of-hormuz-crisis-fertilizer-scarcity-will-affect-next-harves","sourceId":"fao-newsroom","sourceName":"FAO Newsroom","sourceUrl":"https://www.fao.org/newsroom/detail/strait-of-hormuz-crisis--fertilizer-scarcity-will-affect-next-harvests-and-food-supplies--fao-warns/en","title":"North America: Strait of Hormuz crisis: Fertilizer scarcity will affect next harvests and food supplies, FAO warns","currentSignal":"FAO Newsroom published a war, sanctions, or shipping-route item. Read it as a delivered feed, fertilizer, fuel, freight, and buyer-access signal.","pastPattern":"Same day to 3 years history usually shows up in Same week to 12 months: Delivered feed and fertilizer become more expensive or less reliable Local basis can diverge from headline futures or export values Local feed substitution, earlier sale timing, or destination hedging becomes valuable","forwardScenario":"War and shipping disruption: Conflict, sanctions, canal disruption, or route risk changes grain, fertilizer, fuel, freight, and protein trade costs.","producerDecision":"Check delivered feed, fertilizer, fuel, freight, and route exposure before holding cattle longer or locking crop-input purchases.","severity":"high","confidence":82,"sectors":["feed","crops","beef","dairy"],"scenarioIds":["geopolitical-shipping-shock","port-freight-shock","feed-cost-spike"],"historicalDriverIds":["geopolitical-shock-to-feed-freight","logistics-to-local-basis"],"sourceGraphEdgeIds":["gdelt-news-to-market-event-risk","eia-diesel-to-freight-feed-cost","feed-energy-to-breakeven"]},{"id":"path-north-america-impact-open-meteo-water-demand-southern-plains-water-heat-impact","sourceId":"open-meteo-forecast","sourceName":"Open-Meteo global weather forecast","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs","title":"North America: Southern Plains 7-day water demand forecast: heat and water demand watch","currentSignal":"Water demand, shade and handling windows, dairy milk yield, pasture regrowth, hay substitution, irrigation demand, and feed-crop stress.","pastPattern":"30-120 days history usually shows up in 2-16 weeks: More calves and cull cows move earlier Replacement animals face discount risk in dry regions Feed cost can erase the value of extra gain","forwardScenario":"Drought tightens forage: Pasture weakens, hay gets tighter, and more cows or calves can move earlier than planned.","producerDecision":"Move water checks, shade, transport timing, and dairy heat-abatement ahead of the forecast peak before assuming cattle will keep eating and gaining normally.","severity":"high","confidence":88,"sectors":["beef","dairy","feed","crops"],"scenarioIds":["drought-shock","milk-margin-squeeze","crop-yield-shock","feed-cost-spike"],"historicalDriverIds":["pasture-stress-to-sale-runs","heat-load-to-milk-gain","crop-balance-to-feed-margin"],"sourceGraphEdgeIds":["open-meteo-forecast-to-forward-forage","nasa-weather-to-heat"]},{"id":"path-north-america-impact-usda-esr-sorghum-weekly-exports-buyer-pull-impact","sourceId":"usda-esr","sourceName":"USDA Export Sales Reporting","sourceUrl":"https://apps.fas.usda.gov/export-sales/esrd1.html","title":"North America: Sorghum export pull weekly exports changed weekly buyer pull","currentSignal":"Corn, sorghum, and meal export pull can change domestic feed basis, ration coverage, feeder bids, and gain economics.","pastPattern":"90 days to 5 years history usually shows up in 1-18 months: Backgrounding and finishing margins compress Dairy ration spend rises before cull flow changes Crop producers may gain price opportunity while livestock producers face cost risk","forwardScenario":"Feed cost spike: Corn, hay, soybean meal, fuel, or freight costs rise faster than cattle value.","producerDecision":"Check delivered feed and basis before buying feeders, holding cattle for more weight, or leaving protein needs uncovered.","severity":"high","confidence":84,"sectors":["feed","crops","beef","dairy"],"scenarioIds":["feed-cost-spike","crop-yield-shock","export-disruption"],"historicalDriverIds":["crop-balance-to-feed-margin"],"sourceGraphEdgeIds":["export-sales-to-buyer-pull","fas-trade-to-basis","wasde-feed-balance-to-cattle-margin","feed-energy-to-breakeven"]},{"id":"path-north-america-impact-usda-nass-crop-progress-pasture-good-excellent-2026-06-01-official-report-impact","sourceId":"usda-nass","sourceName":"USDA NASS QuickStats and ESMIS reports","sourceUrl":"https://esmis.nal.usda.gov/","title":"North America: U.S. pasture good/excellent changes the official crop progress read","currentSignal":"Feed coverage, hay buying, pasture carrying days, local basis, feeder bids, and whether extra retained weight still pays.","pastPattern":"30-120 days history usually shows up in 2-16 weeks: More calves and cull cows move earlier Replacement animals face discount risk in dry regions Feed cost can erase the value of extra gain","forwardScenario":"Drought tightens forage: Pasture weakens, hay gets tighter, and more cows or calves can move earlier than planned.","producerDecision":"Move this NASS read into the feed plan now: count forage days, price hay and grain, then compare selling lighter cattle against buying another gain period.","severity":"high","confidence":91,"sectors":["feed","crops","beef","dairy"],"scenarioIds":["drought-shock","feed-cost-spike"],"historicalDriverIds":["pasture-stress-to-sale-runs","crop-balance-to-feed-margin"],"sourceGraphEdgeIds":["nass-inventory-to-cycle","drought-to-retention","feed-energy-to-breakeven"]}]},"weeklyBlocks":{"subject":"North America Weekly market intelligence","preheader":"Market moves, scenarios, history, local boards, and producer decisions to review this week.","sections":[{"heading":"What changed this week","items":[{"title":"U.S. pasture good/excellent changes the official crop progress read","body":"30 % in the 2026-06-01 USDA NASS Crop Progress; -12.0 points versus last year. This is an official supply, feed, dairy, or pasture signal to read before treating local prices as isolated.","action":"Move this NASS read into the feed plan now: count forage days, price hay and grain, then compare selling lighter cattle against buying another gain period.","sourceName":"USDA NASS QuickStats and ESMIS reports","sourceUrl":"https://esmis.nal.usda.gov/"},{"title":"U.S. pasture poor/very poor changes the official crop progress read","body":"42 % in the 2026-06-01 USDA NASS Crop Progress; 42.0% of selected-state pasture is poor or very poor. This is an official supply, feed, dairy, or pasture signal to read before treating local prices as isolated.","action":"Move this NASS read into the feed plan now: count forage days, price hay and grain, then compare selling lighter cattle against buying another gain period.","sourceName":"USDA NASS QuickStats and ESMIS reports","sourceUrl":"https://esmis.nal.usda.gov/"},{"title":"Southern Plains 7-day water demand forecast: heat and water demand watch","body":"60.8 mm/week forecast for reference evapotranspiration. That is a forward signal for pasture drying, trough checks, shade, dairy comfort, and irrigated feed-crop pressure.","action":"Move water checks, shade, transport timing, and dairy heat-abatement ahead of the forecast peak before assuming cattle will keep eating and gaining normally.","sourceName":"Open-Meteo global weather forecast","sourceUrl":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs"},{"title":"Corn COT positioning changes hedge and feed-risk timing","body":"6 % net long / open interest in the latest CFTC Commitments of Traders report. Feed futures positioning is a weekly early-warning signal for ration coverage and crop-feed exposure.","action":"Use the COT feed read with local corn, hay, freight, and weather before delaying ration coverage or holding cattle for extra gain.","sourceName":"CFTC Commitments of Traders","sourceUrl":"https://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/index.htm"}]},{"heading":"Scenarios to watch","items":[{"title":"Feed cost spike","body":"Risk rises versus baseline.","action":"Recalculate whether the next gain period is still worth feeding."},{"title":"Crop yield shock","body":"Risk rises versus baseline.","action":"Decide whether to protect feed needs, price grain, adjust planting, or buy hay before local shortages are obvious."},{"title":"Export or border disruption","body":"Risk rises versus baseline.","action":"Do not assume local bids are stable when export channels or border rules move."},{"title":"Drought tightens forage","body":"Risk rises versus baseline.","action":"Check forage inventory, water, and the value of selling lighter cattle before everyone else is forced to."}]},{"heading":"Past pattern -> next move","items":[{"title":"Southern Plains severe drought footprint changes forage and retention risk","body":"Pasture stress becomes sale pressure","action":"Recount forage and hay inventory now, then compare selling lighter cattle against carrying them through a drought-priced gain period."},{"title":"U.S. pasture good/excellent changes the official crop progress read","body":"Crop balance becomes feed margin","action":"Move this NASS read into the feed plan now: count forage days, price hay and grain, then compare selling lighter cattle against buying another gain period."},{"title":"Canada PSD beef supply and trade updates the long-cycle supply read","body":"Export pull changes local basis","action":"Compare PSD beef supply and trade with local bids before deciding whether price weakness is temporary noise or real buyer leverage."},{"title":"Southern Plains 7-day water demand forecast: heat and water demand watch","body":"Heat load becomes milk and weight-gain drag","action":"Move water checks, shade, transport timing, and dairy heat-abatement ahead of the forecast peak before assuming cattle will keep eating and gaining normally."}]}]},"shareableMarkdown":"# North America Weekly market intelligence\n\nMarket moves, scenarios, history, local boards, and producer decisions to review this week.\n\n## Lead read\n\nU.S. pasture good/excellent changes the official crop progress read\n\n30 % in the 2026-06-01 USDA NASS Crop Progress; -12.0 points versus last year. This is an official supply, feed, dairy, or pasture signal to read before treating local prices as isolated. Feed coverage, hay buying, pasture carrying days, local basis, feeder bids, and whether extra retained weight still pays.\n\nDecision: Move this NASS read into the feed plan now: count forage days, price hay and grain, then compare selling lighter cattle against buying another gain period.\n\nSource: USDA NASS QuickStats and ESMIS reports (https://esmis.nal.usda.gov/)\n\n## What changed this week\n\n- U.S. pasture good/excellent changes the official crop progress read: What changed this week: 30 % in the 2026-06-01 USDA NASS Crop Progress; -12.0 points versus last year. This is an official supply, feed, dairy, or pasture signal to read before treating local prices as isolated. Decision: Move this NASS read into the feed plan now: count forage days, price hay and grain, then compare selling lighter cattle against buying another gain period. Source: USDA NASS QuickStats and ESMIS reports (https://esmis.nal.usda.gov/).\n- U.S. pasture poor/very poor changes the official crop progress read: What changed this week: 42 % in the 2026-06-01 USDA NASS Crop Progress; 42.0% of selected-state pasture is poor or very poor. This is an official supply, feed, dairy, or pasture signal to read before treating local prices as isolated. Decision: Move this NASS read into the feed plan now: count forage days, price hay and grain, then compare selling lighter cattle against buying another gain period. Source: USDA NASS QuickStats and ESMIS reports (https://esmis.nal.usda.gov/).\n- Southern Plains 7-day water demand forecast: heat and water demand watch: What changed this week: 60.8 mm/week forecast for reference evapotranspiration. That is a forward signal for pasture drying, trough checks, shade, dairy comfort, and irrigated feed-crop pressure. Decision: Move water checks, shade, transport timing, and dairy heat-abatement ahead of the forecast peak before assuming cattle will keep eating and gaining normally. Source: Open-Meteo global weather forecast (https://open-meteo.com/en/docs).\n- Corn COT positioning changes hedge and feed-risk timing: What changed this week: 6 % net long / open interest in the latest CFTC Commitments of Traders report. Feed futures positioning is a weekly early-warning signal for ration coverage and crop-feed exposure. Decision: Use the COT feed read with local corn, hay, freight, and weather before delaying ration coverage or holding cattle for extra gain. Source: CFTC Commitments of Traders (https://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/index.htm).\n\n## Scenarios to watch\n\n- Feed cost spike: Risk rises versus baseline. Decision: Recalculate whether the next gain period is still worth feeding.\n- Crop yield shock: Risk rises versus baseline. Decision: Decide whether to protect feed needs, price grain, adjust planting, or buy hay before local shortages are obvious.\n- Export or border disruption: Risk rises versus baseline. Decision: Do not assume local bids are stable when export channels or border rules move.\n- Drought tightens forage: Risk rises versus baseline. Decision: Check forage inventory, water, and the value of selling lighter cattle before everyone else is forced to.\n\n## Past pattern -> next move\n\n- Southern Plains severe drought footprint changes forage and retention risk: Pasture stress becomes sale pressure. Decision: Recount forage and hay inventory now, then compare selling lighter cattle against carrying them through a drought-priced gain period.\n- U.S. pasture good/excellent changes the official crop progress read: Crop balance becomes feed margin. Decision: Move this NASS read into the feed plan now: count forage days, price hay and grain, then compare selling lighter cattle against buying another gain period.\n- Canada PSD beef supply and trade updates the long-cycle supply read: Export pull changes local basis. Decision: Compare PSD beef supply and trade with local bids before deciding whether price weakness is temporary noise or real buyer leverage.\n- Southern Plains 7-day water demand forecast: heat and water demand watch: Heat load becomes milk and weight-gain drag. Decision: Move water checks, shade, transport timing, and dairy heat-abatement ahead of the forecast peak before assuming cattle will keep eating and gaining normally.\n\n## Local markets\n\n- United States dairy and processor belt, United States: Milk-feed spread, processor pull, dairy-beef supply, and replacement economics. Decision: Use milk price, solids, feed cost, cull-cow flow, and processor demand before changing ration, culling, or replacement plans.\n- United States pasture and water basin, United States: Pasture recovery, water stress, heat load, hay availability, and forced-sale risk. Decision: Use rainfall, heat, water, pasture, and forage signals before changing stocking rate, sale pressure, or supplement buying.\n- United States trade and health corridor, United States: Destination concentration, sanitary access, port flow, border friction, and currency translation. Decision: Use export access, border movement, disease notices, freight, currency, and policy signals before committing volume.\n- United States feed and crop belt, United States: Delivered feed basis, crop yield risk, freight, diesel, and financing pressure. Decision: Use feed grain, hay, protein meal, crop progress, fuel, and credit signals before buying feed or holding weight longer.\n\n## Producer checklist\n\n- 0-12 weeks: Move this NASS read into the feed plan now: count forage days, price hay and grain, then compare selling lighter cattle against buying another gain period.\n- 0-14 days: Move water checks, shade, transport timing, and dairy heat-abatement ahead of the forecast peak before assuming cattle will keep eating and gaining normally.\n- 1-8 weeks: Use the COT feed read with local corn, hay, freight, and weather before delaying ration coverage or holding cattle for extra gain.\n- Same week to 4 weeks: Check delivered feed and basis before buying feeders, holding cattle for more weight, or leaving protein needs uncovered.\n- 1 month to 1 year: Put the WASDE revision beside local corn, meal, hay, freight, and weather before buying feed, buying feeders, or holding cattle for more gain.\n\nData: https://cattleweightestimation.com/market-pulse/weekly-intelligence.json?region=north-america&sector=all&lang=en\n\nMarkdown: https://cattleweightestimation.com/market-pulse/weekly-intelligence.md?region=north-america&sector=all&lang=en","citationText":"North America Weekly market intelligence summarizes 4 market moves, 5 scenarios, 5 historical patterns, and 5 local boards for North America.","region":{"id":"north-america","name":{"en":"North America","es":"Norteamérica","pt":"América do Norte"},"shortName":"North America","currency":"USD","unit":"lb","headline":{"en":"Tight supply makes every pound and every feed decision matter.","es":"La oferta ajustada hace que cada libra y cada decisión de alimento importen.","pt":"A oferta apertada faz cada libra e cada decisão de ração importar."},"dailyBrief":{"en":"Track feeder and fed cattle bids, boxed beef, feed cost, drought, pasture condition, and disease or border movement before choosing sell, hold, hedge, or feed.","es":"Seguir precios de invernada y gordo, carne en caja, alimento, sequía, pasto y sanidad antes de vender, retener, cubrir o alimentar.","pt":"Acompanhar recria e boi gordo, carne no atacado, ração, seca, pasto e sanidade antes de vender, reter, fazer hedge ou alimentar."},"producerTakeaway":{"en":"The useful decision is not a price headline. It is whether the next 50 lb still pays after feed, freight, weather, and buyer risk.","es":"La decisión útil no es el titular de precio. Es si las próximas libras pagan después de alimento, flete, clima y comprador.","pt":"A decisão útil não é o título de preço. É se as próximas libras pagam após ração, frete, clima e risco do comprador."},"weatherAndFeed":{"en":"Drought, pasture condition, hay, corn, diesel, and heat load are the daily feed-margin signals.","es":"Sequía, pasto, heno, maíz, diésel y calor son señales diarias de margen.","pt":"Seca, pasto, feno, milho, diesel e calor são sinais diários de margem."},"tradeAndPolicy":{"en":"Exports, border movement, APHIS notices, slaughter pace, and futures positioning can move bids quickly.","es":"Exportación, frontera, avisos sanitarios, faena y futuros pueden mover ofertas rápido.","pt":"Exportação, fronteira, avisos sanitários, abate e futuros podem mover ofertas rápido."},"riskScore":63,"opportunityScore":78,"marketSignals":[{"id":"na-cash-cattle","label":{"en":"Cash cattle","es":"Ganado disponible","pt":"Gado físico"},"value":"Firm","change":{"en":"tight supply","es":"oferta ajustada","pt":"oferta apertada"},"tone":"up","detail":{"en":"Tight cattle supply keeps the sale window sensitive to packer bids, slaughter pace, and boxed beef support.","es":"La oferta ajustada hace que la venta dependa de frigoríficos, faena y carne en caja.","pt":"A oferta apertada deixa a venda sensível a frigoríficos, abate e carne no atacado."},"sector":"beef","sourceId":"usda-ams","confidence":86},{"id":"na-forage","label":{"en":"Forage pressure","es":"Presión de forraje","pt":"Pressão de pasto"},"value":"Watch","change":{"en":"weekly drought map","es":"mapa semanal de sequía","pt":"mapa semanal de seca"},"tone":"risk","detail":{"en":"Drought and pasture condition decide whether extra weight is cheap gain or expensive feed risk.","es":"Sequía y condición de pasto deciden si el peso extra es ganancia barata o riesgo caro.","pt":"Seca e condição do pasto decidem se peso extra é ganho barato ou risco caro."},"sector":"feed","sourceId":"us-drought-monitor","confidence":88},{"id":"na-dairy-cull","label":{"en":"Cull cow flow","es":"Descarte lechero","pt":"Descarte leiteiro"},"value":"Margin-led","change":{"en":"milk vs feed","es":"leche vs alimento","pt":"leite vs ração"},"tone":"neutral","detail":{"en":"Milk margin and feed cost decide whether dairy cows stay in production or move into beef supply.","es":"El margen leche-alimento decide si vacas lecheras siguen o entran a oferta de carne.","pt":"A margem leite-ração decide se vacas ficam produzindo ou entram na oferta de carne."},"sector":"dairy","sourceId":"usda-ams","confidence":78},{"id":"na-health","label":{"en":"Health movement","es":"Movimiento sanitario","pt":"Movimentação sanitária"},"value":"Check","change":{"en":"event-driven","es":"por evento","pt":"por evento"},"tone":"neutral","detail":{"en":"Disease and movement rules can matter more than price when cattle cross state, province, or border lines.","es":"Sanidad y movimiento pueden importar más que precio al cruzar estados o fronteras.","pt":"Sanidade e movimento podem pesar mais que preço ao cruzar estados ou fronteiras."},"sector":"animal-health","sourceId":"usda-aphis","confidence":82},{"id":"na-crop-feed-balance","label":{"en":"Crop-feed balance","es":"Balance cultivo-alimento","pt":"Balanço cultura-ração"},"value":"Tight watch","change":{"en":"WASDE + crop progress","es":"WASDE + avance cultivo","pt":"WASDE + progresso da safra"},"tone":"risk","detail":{"en":"Corn, hay, pasture, and crop-condition changes move feed cost before livestock reports catch up.","es":"Maíz, heno, pasto y condición de cultivo mueven alimento antes del dato ganadero.","pt":"Milho, feno, pasto e condição da safra movem ração antes do dado pecuário."},"sector":"crops","sourceId":"usda-wasde","confidence":85}],"localMarkets":[{"name":"Southern Plains","country":"United States","role":{"en":"feedlot and fed cattle read","es":"feedlot y gordo","pt":"confinamento e boi gordo"},"risk":68,"mainDriver":{"en":"feed cost and drought","es":"alimento y sequía","pt":"ração e seca"},"updateCadence":"daily"},{"name":"Northern Plains","country":"United States","role":{"en":"feeder supply and weather","es":"oferta de invernada y clima","pt":"oferta de recria e clima"},"risk":59,"mainDriver":{"en":"pasture and feeder runs","es":"pasto y remates","pt":"pasto e leilões"},"updateCadence":"weekly"},{"name":"Canadian Prairies","country":"Canada","role":{"en":"cross-border and feedgrain market","es":"frontera y granos","pt":"fronteira e grãos"},"risk":54,"mainDriver":{"en":"FX, feed, border movement","es":"cambio, alimento, frontera","pt":"câmbio, ração, fronteira"},"updateCadence":"weekly"}],"weightValues":[{"class":{"en":"Light calf","es":"Ternero liviano","pt":"Bezerro leve"},"weight":450,"pricePerUnit":365,"estimatedValue":1643},{"class":{"en":"Weaned calf","es":"Ternero destetado","pt":"Bezerro desmamado"},"weight":550,"pricePerUnit":335,"estimatedValue":1843},{"class":{"en":"Feeder steer","es":"Novillo de invernada","pt":"Garrote de recria"},"weight":800,"pricePerUnit":285,"estimatedValue":2280},{"class":{"en":"Finished steer","es":"Novillo terminado","pt":"Boi terminado"},"weight":1350,"pricePerUnit":228,"estimatedValue":3078}],"feedMargin":[{"label":{"en":"Feeder value","es":"Valor de compra","pt":"Valor de entrada"},"value":2280},{"label":{"en":"Feed and yardage","es":"Alimento y corral","pt":"Ração e diária"},"value":-615},{"label":{"en":"Health and freight","es":"Sanidad y flete","pt":"Sanidade e frete"},"value":-95},{"label":{"en":"Finished value","es":"Valor terminado","pt":"Valor terminado"},"value":3078},{"label":{"en":"Gross spread","es":"Margen bruto","pt":"Spread bruto"},"value":1088}],"newsRadar":[{"id":"na-drought","title":{"en":"Drought shifts sale timing","es":"Sequía cambia la venta","pt":"Seca muda a venda"},"impact":"High","category":{"en":"Weather","es":"Clima","pt":"Clima"},"sector":"feed","sourceId":"us-drought-monitor","summary":{"en":"Pasture deterioration can pull calves forward, lift hay demand, and change the value of holding cattle.","es":"El deterioro del pasto adelanta terneros, sube heno y cambia el valor de retener.","pt":"A piora do pasto antecipa bezerros, eleva feno e muda o valor de reter."},"producerAction":{"en":"Compare forage days with the value of adding the next 50 lb.","es":"Comparar días de forraje con el valor de agregar más peso.","pt":"Comparar dias de pasto com o valor de adicionar peso."}},{"id":"na-feed","title":{"en":"Feed costs pressure breakevens","es":"Alimento presiona equilibrio","pt":"Ração pressiona equilíbrio"},"impact":"High","category":{"en":"Feed","es":"Alimento","pt":"Ração"},"sector":"feed","sourceId":"world-bank-pink-sheet","summary":{"en":"Corn, hay, freight, and yardage decide whether extra gain creates profit or only a bigger ticket.","es":"Maíz, heno, flete y corral deciden si más ganancia crea margen.","pt":"Milho, feno, frete e diária decidem se mais ganho cria margem."},"producerAction":{"en":"Reprice the ration before delaying sales.","es":"Recalcular la dieta antes de demorar ventas.","pt":"Recalcular a dieta antes de atrasar venda."}},{"id":"na-health-policy","title":{"en":"Health rules affect movement","es":"Sanidad afecta movimiento","pt":"Sanidade afeta movimento"},"impact":"Medium","category":{"en":"Policy","es":"Política","pt":"Política"},"sector":"animal-health","sourceId":"usda-aphis","summary":{"en":"Movement and disease rules can change buyer access faster than inventory reports.","es":"Reglas sanitarias pueden cambiar compradores más rápido que inventarios.","pt":"Regras sanitárias podem mudar compradores mais rápido que inventários."},"producerAction":{"en":"Check movement status before shipping cattle across regions.","es":"Verificar movimiento antes de enviar ganado entre regiones.","pt":"Verificar movimentação antes de enviar gado entre regiões."}}],"driverStack":[{"driver":{"en":"Herd cycle tightness","es":"Ciclo del hato ajustado","pt":"Ciclo do rebanho apertado"},"score":82,"movement":"up","why":{"en":"Scarce supply supports bids but raises replacement risk.","es":"Oferta escasa apoya precios y encarece reposición.","pt":"Oferta escassa sustenta preços e encarece reposição."}},{"driver":{"en":"Feed and forage cost","es":"Costo de alimento y forraje","pt":"Custo de ração e pasto"},"score":68,"movement":"risk","why":{"en":"Margin can disappear even when cattle prices are high.","es":"El margen puede desaparecer aun con precios altos.","pt":"A margem pode sumir mesmo com preços altos."}},{"driver":{"en":"Export and slaughter pace","es":"Exportación y faena","pt":"Exportação e abate"},"score":57,"movement":"neutral","why":{"en":"Processor demand decides whether heavier cattle are rewarded.","es":"La demanda frigorífica decide si más peso paga.","pt":"A demanda frigorífica decide se mais peso paga."}}],"watchlist":[{"en":"Feeder auction spreads by weight class","es":"Diferenciales de remate por peso","pt":"Diferenças de leilão por peso"},{"en":"Pasture condition and drought changes","es":"Condición de pasto y sequía","pt":"Condição de pasto e seca"},{"en":"Feed, diesel, and freight costs","es":"Alimento, diésel y flete","pt":"Ração, diesel e frete"},{"en":"Disease, border, and movement notices","es":"Sanidad, frontera y movimiento","pt":"Sanidade, fronteira e movimentação"}]}}]}